NZDUSD tests 100/200 day moving averages nearly 0.6068. Key barometer for buyers/sellers.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-tests-100200-day-moving-averages-nearly-06068-key-barometer-for-buyerssellers-20240701/
The NZDUSD is trading near session lows and in the process is testing its converged 100 and 200-day moving averages near 0.6068. When both the 100 and 200 day moving averages are converged, it represents a key risk/bias defining level for both buyers and sellers. Moving below with momentum and traders will target the 50% of the trading range since the mid-April low at 0.6036. Moving below that level increases the bearish bias even more. Conversely, stay above the 100/200 day moving averages and a bounce back rally toward the high from today and the high from last Thursday at 0.6108 would be the key target. Get above that level and traders would look toward 0.6125.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD remains below swing area high and rotates lower toward 4-hour MA levels
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-remains-below-swing-area-high-and-rotates-lower-toward-4-hour-ma-levels-20240701/
The AUDUSD traded to the high from last week, and the high of swing area near 0.66896. Sellers lead against that level stalling the rally. The higher US rates today have helped to push the AUDUSD price lower (the USD higher). The move has now pushed the price toward the 200 and 100 bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart between 0.66459 and 0.66395. That level is now stalling the fall. So sellers lead against the high of the swing area. The buyers are now leaning against the MAs on the 4-hour charts. Traders will use as levels as barometers for the next moves. Dip buyers will now lean against the MAs and hope for a bounce back toward the higher swing levels. Sellers would want to see a break of the MAs and look for increased selling momentum.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF higher on the day but battling between technical levels
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-higher-on-the-day-but-battling-between-technical-levels-20240701/
The USDCHF is being helped by weaker Swiss retail sales/higher US yields. However the ISM data in the US did come out weaker than expectations with prices and employment components also lower. That combination helped to push price down toward an old floor level (broken earlier today), and the 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.89974 level. Buyers leaned against that level on the dip and have pushed back to the upside.Having said that, the high price today has seen sellers near the 50% of the move down from the May 1 high at 0.9025.With support at 0.8997, and resistance at 0.9025, the buyers and sellers will now battle it out for more control. With the price higher on the day (and the low also basing at its 100 day moving average today at 0.8980), and the price moving back above the old floor, the buyers have the short term tilt. However, there is work to do to prove their desire to push higher in the pair.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
a gain of 68.14 points. On Friday, the Dow Industrial Average fell 45.20 points or -0.12% at 39118.87. The index fell -0.08%.S&P futures are implying a gain of 11.02 points points. On Friday, the S&P index closed down -22.3 nonpoint or -0.41% at 5460.49. The index rose 0.08% last week.Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 37.90 points. On Friday, the NASDAQ index fell -126.08 points or -0.71% at 17732.60. The index rose 0.24% less foodEuropean stock indices are trading higher in morning European trading to start the trading week:German DAX, 0.58%France CAC +1.73%UK FTSE 100, +0.41%Spain's Ibex, +1.23%Italy's FTSE MIB, +1.80% (delayed 10 minutes)..Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixedJapan's Nikkei 225, +0.12%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.92%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +0.01%Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.22%Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower.2-year yield 4.758%, +0.2 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.681%5-year yield 4.392%, +1.4 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.271%10-year yield 4.414%, +1.4 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.269% 30-year yield 4.579%, +2.0 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.414%Looking at the treasury yield curve the spreads are steadyThe 2-10 year spread is at -34.4 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was at -41.2 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at -18.4 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was at -26.2 basis points.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – The price action remains rangebound
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-technical-analysis-the-price-action-remains-rangebound-20240701/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD started the week on
the backfoot as the new month begins. The last week’s strength might have been
influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as the
economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. Nonetheless, the data should
continue to support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth without
inflationary pressures. The AUD, on the other hand,
should be favoured in such environment as it’s also backed by a slightly more
hawkish RBA (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-recap-more-alert-to-upside-inflation-risks-less-confident-inflation-is-moderating-20240618/). Last week, the Aussie got a boost from
another hot monthly CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/australia-weighted-cpi-yy-40-vs-38-expected-20240626/) report which raised the chances of
a rate hike (https://www.forexlive.com/news/is-a-rate-hike-back-on-the-menu-for-the-rba-20240626/), although RBA’s
Hauser (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rbas-hauser-it-would-be-a-bad-mistake-to-set-policy-on-the-basis-of-one-number-20240627/) poured some cold water on the expectations as he would rather hold rates
steady for longer. AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD is getting close to the key resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 0.6713 level. All
else being equal, the fundamentals are in place for an upside breakout. That’s
what the buyers will want to see to increase the bullish bets into the 0.6870
level next. The sellers, on the other
hand, will likely step in around the 0.6713 resistance zone with a defined risk
above it to position for a drop back into the bottom of the range at 0.66.AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action between the 0.67 resistance and
the 0.66 support. These will be the key levels that the market will need to
break to start a more sustained trend. For now, we could keep bouncing around until
we get a clear breakout.AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the recent price action has formed another minor range between the 0.6625
support and the 0.6680 resistance. From a risk management perspective, the
buyers will definitely have a better risk to reward setup around the supports,
while the sellers will want to lean on the resistances. Nevertheless, if the
price stays above the 0.6680 resistance, the buyers should remain in control and
extend the rally into the 0.6713 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsThis week (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is full of important events. We begin today with the release of the US
ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we have the US Job Openings and Fed Chair
Powell speaking. On Wednesday, we get the US ADP, the US Jobless Claims, the US
ISM Services PMI and the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday is going to be a US
Holiday for Independence Day. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the
US NFP report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The bearish momentum seems to be fading
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-technical-analysis-the-bearish-momentum-seems-to-be-fading-20240628/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD continues to be
backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-consumer-confidence-1004-vs-1000-expected-20240625/) report this week. Yesterday, we
also got the US Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-233k-vs-236k-expected-20240627/) figures where the data showed that
the labour market continues to rebalance via less job availability rather than
more layoffs. Such data keeps the
interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year and
supports the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth without inflationary
pressures. The GBP, on the other hand,
has been under pressure since the BoE policy decision (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-525-as-expected-20240620/) where the central bank delivered
some dovish signals (https://www.forexlive.com/news/august-back-in-the-picture-for-the-boe-20240620/) and kept the door open for a rate
cut in August. This week the Pound has been under pressure mainly due to some
US Dollar strength. It looks like the price
action this week has been influenced more by month-end, quarter-end and mid year-end
flows rather than something fundamental. GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD bounced once again from the support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) at 1.2635 today as the buyers continue to step
in around this level to position for a rally into new highs with a better risk
to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to gain more conviction and increase the bearish bets into the
1.25 handle next.GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the downside momentum seems to be slowing as the lower lows get
shallower. This might be a signal for a reversal, although a break to the
downside could invalidate it. The buyers will want to see
the price breaking above the downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) to gain more conviction and
increase the bullish bets into the 1.28 handle. The sellers, on the other hand,
might lean on the trendline to position for a break below the support with a
better risk to reward setup.GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we've been ranging for the entier week as flows have been dominating the price action and the market awaits
new catalysts to push it in either direction. There's not much else to do here other than waiting for the price to reach the key levels or provide some breakouts. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US PCE report where the market expects
the Core PCE to fall further towards the Fed’s 2% target.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upside
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-the-path-of-least-resistance-remains-to-the-upside-20240628/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD continues to be backed
by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-consumer-confidence-1004-vs-1000-expected-20240625/) report this week. Yesterday, we
also got the US
Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-233k-vs-236k-expected-20240627/) figures where the data showed that the labour market
continues to rebalance via less job availability rather than more layoffs. Such data keeps the
interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year and
supports the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth without inflationary
pressures. The JPY in this environment
should keep losing ground against the major currencies. We will likely need
weak US growth data to see some sustained Yen strength, although it might be
short lived if it’s not enough to make the market to price in more aggressive
rate cuts for the Fed. USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY eventually managed to break above the key 160.00 handle and extended
the rally as the lack of intervention gave the market a bit more confidence to
target new highs. If we get a pullback into
the 160.00 level, we can expect the buyers to step back in with a defined risk
below the level to target new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price falling back below the 160.00 handle to gain some conviction
and start targeting the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
around the 157.00 handle. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor trendline defining the current upward momentum. We can
expect the buyers to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs,
while the sellers will need to see the price breaking below the trendline and
the 160.00 level to start targeting new lows. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today defined by the white
lines. We get the US PCE report today and it might trigger a bearish US Dollar
reaction. The data won’t change anything for the Fed though, so the buyers will
likely take it as a fading opportunity to pile in for new highs. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US PCE report where the market expects
the Core PCE to fall further towards the Fed’s 2% target.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD Technical Analysis - The bounce from the key support extends higher
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-technical-analysis-the-bounce-from-the-key-support-extends-higher-20240627/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD continues to be
backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-consumer-confidence-1004-vs-1000-expected-20240625/) report this week. Although such
data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of
the year, it should also support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth.
This could be a headwind for the greenback. This week the US Dollar has
been in the driving seat, although it looks like the price action is being
influenced more by month-end, quarter-end and half year-end flows rather than
something fundamental. We had also a key breakout in USDJPY yesterday and flows
there might have spilled over to other major pairs. We got also the Canadian CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-may-cpi-29-versus-26-expected-20240625/) figures this week which surprised
to the upside and trimmed rate cuts expectations for July with the market now
pricing a 65% chance of no change. That was not enough to break out of the
strong support zone around the 1.36 handle as it didn’t change much the bigger picture,
but it might keep the Loonie supported going forward once the quarter-end flows
fade out.USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD bounced on the key support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 1.36 handle. That’s where the
buyers continue to step in with a defined risk below the support to position
for a rally back into the 1.3785 resistance. The sellers will want to see the
price breaking lower to pile in more aggressively and target a drop into the
1.34 handle next. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price yesterday broke above the 1.3680 resistance and pulled back
to retest it today. We can also see that we have the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/)
there. This is where the buyers
will likely step in with a defined risk below the level to target an extension
of the rally towards the 1.3785 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price falling back below the level to regain some control
and position for a break below the 1.36 support with a better risk to reward
setup. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we had also a downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) adding some extra confluence to the
1.3680 resistance. This breakout might give the buyers more conviction for a
rally back into the 1.3785 resistance next. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude
the week with the Canadian GDP and the US PCE report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – The price is bouncing on a key support level
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-technical-analysis-the-price-is-bouncing-on-a-key-support-level-20240627/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD continues to be
backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-consumer-confidence-1004-vs-1000-expected-20240625/) report this week. Although such
data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of
the year, it should also support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth.
This could be a headwind for the greenback. The NZD, on the other hand,
has been under pressure due to some US Dollar strength this week. It looks like
the price action is being influenced more by month-end, quarter-end and half
year-end flows rather than something fundamental. We had also a key breakout in
USDJPY yesterday and flows there might have spilled over to other major pairs. NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD is bouncing on the key support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) around the 0.6082 level where we have also the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/). The price yesterday probed below
the level but eventually rallied back above it.This is where the buyers
will likely pile in with a defined risk below the support to position for a
rally back into the 0.6217 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price breaking lower again to gain more conviction and increase
the bearish bets into the 0.60 handle next. NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price action has been mostly rangebound between the 0.6082 support
and the 0.6217 resistance. The buyers will want to see the price breaking above
the downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
to gain more conviction and increase the bullish bets into the 0.6217
resistance next. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely lean on the trendline
with a defined risk above it and position for a break below the support with a
better risk to reward setup.NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance zone around the 0.6145 level where the
price got rejected from several times. This is what the buyers will ultimately
need to break to extend the rally towards the 0.6217 resistance. The red lines
define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude
the week with the US PCE report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – Messy price action amid quarter-end flows
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-messy-price-action-amid-quarter-end-flows-20240627/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD continues to be
backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-consumer-confidence-1004-vs-1000-expected-20240625/) report this week. Although such
data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of
the year, it should also support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth.
This could be a headwind for the greenback. The EUR, on the other hand,
has been under pressure due to some US Dollar strength this week. It looks like
the price action is being influenced more by month-end, quarter-end and half
year-end flows rather than something fundamental. We had also a key breakout in
USDJPY yesterday and flows there might have spilled over to other major pairs. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD has been ranging just beneath the key 1.0727 level. As the
price stays below the level, it skews the bias more to the downside as the
sellers continue to pile in for a drop into the 1.06 handle. The buyers will want
to see the price rallying back above the 1.0727 level to regain some control
and start targeting new highs. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) around the 1.0680 level where the price got
rejected from several times in the past days. We can also see that the price
has been printing lower highs as the market kept testing the support. This is a
bearish price action and it also formed what looks like a descending
triangle (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/). A breakout to the downside
should see the bearish momentum increasing with the sellers piling in for a
drop into the 1.06 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see a
breakout to the upside to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally
into the 1.08 handle. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an interesting resistance zone around the 1.07 handle as the
price reacted to it several times. A break above it should see the buyers
extending the bounce from the 1.0670 support into the 1.0727 resistance. The
sellers, on the other hand, might lean on it to position for a break below the
support with a better risk to reward setup. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude
the week with the US PCE report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Another hot Australian CPI raises hike bets
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-technical-analysis-another-hot-australian-cpi-raises-hike-bets-20240626/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD continues to be
backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-consumer-confidence-1004-vs-1000-expected-20240625/) report yesterday. Although such
data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of
the year, it also supports the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth. This
could be a headwind for the greenback. The AUD, on the other hand,
has been supported recently by a better risk sentiment and the slightly more hawkish
RBA (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-recap-more-alert-to-upside-inflation-risks-less-confident-inflation-is-moderating-20240618/) policy decision. Today, the Aussie got a boost
from another hot
monthly CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/australia-weighted-cpi-yy-40-vs-38-expected-20240626/) report which raised the chances of a rate
hike (https://www.forexlive.com/news/is-a-rate-hike-back-on-the-menu-for-the-rba-20240626/). AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD is now getting close to the key resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 0.6713 level. All
else being equal, the fundamentals are in place for an upside breakout. That’s
what the buyers will want to see to increase the bullish bets into the 0.6870
level next.The sellers, on the other
hand, will likely step in around the 0.6713 resistance zone with a defined risk
above it to position for a drop back into the bottom of the range at 0.66.AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action between the 0.67 resistance and
the 0.66 support. These will be the key levels that the market will need to
break to start a more sustained trend. For now, we could keep bouncing around until
we get a clear breakout.AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price pulled back from the upper limit of the average
daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/). We have a good support around the 0.6672 level where we can
also find the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/)
of the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level. This is where we can expect
the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a continuation
of the rally. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
falling below the support to start targeting a drop back into the 0.66 support.
Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude the week with the US PCE report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – The hot Canadian CPI trims rate cuts bets
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-technical-analysis-the-hot-canadian-cpi-trims-rate-cuts-bets-20240626/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD continues to be backed
by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-consumer-confidence-1004-vs-1000-expected-20240625/) report yesterday. Although such
data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of
the year, it also supports the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth. This
could be a headwind for the greenback. The CAD, in fact, has been gaining
ground against the greenback probably due to the better risk picture. Yesterday,
we got the Canadian
CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-may-cpi-29-versus-26-expected-20240625/) figures which surprised to the upside and trimmed rate cuts
expectations for July with the market now pricing a 60% chance of no change. That was not enough to
break out of the strong support zone around the 1.36 handle as it doesn’t change
much the big picture, but it might keep the Loonie supported amid the positive
risk sentiment. USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD bounced on the key support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 1.36 handle. That’s where the
buyers continue to step in with a defined risk below the support to position
for a rally back into the 1.3785 resistance. The sellers will want to see the
price breaking lower to pile in more aggressively and target a drop into the
1.34 handle next. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the pair has been ranging between the 1.36 support and the 1.3785
resistance for several months as the market doesn’t have a strong reason to
sustain a trend on either side yet. The sellers are stepping
back in around the 1.3680 level with a defined risk above it to position for a
break below the key support zone with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to shift the bias
and increase the bullish bets into the 1.3785 resistance. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) and the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level adding some extra resistance to the 1.3680 level. This is
the area where the sellers will keep on piling in from to position for a drop,
while the buyers will want to see it failing to gain more conviction for an
extension to the upside. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude the week with the Canadian GDP and the US PCE report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Waiting for a breakout
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-technical-analysis-waiting-for-a-breakout-20240625/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD last week finished
slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) on Friday which showed growth without
inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for
interest rates remained unchanged. That should be generally positive for risk
sentiment going forward.The NZD, on the other hand,
got pressured mainly because of the bouts of risk-off flows here and there. The
mood in the market seems to be gradually improving though and that should
support the Kiwi going forward. NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD bounced and consolidated near the key support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) around the 0.6082 level where we have also the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/). The buyers continue to step
in around the lows to position for a rally back into the 0.6217 resistance. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
increase the bearish momentum and position for a drop into the 0.60 handle
next. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price action has been mostly rangebound between the 0.6082 support
and the 0.6217 resistance. These will be the key levels that the market will
need to break to start a more sustained trend. For now, we could keep bouncing
around as the market participants continue to “play the range”.NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance zone around the 0.6145 level where the
price got rejected from several times. The buyers will want to see the price
breaking higher to gain more conviction and increase the bullish bets into the
0.6217 level. The sellers, on the other
hand, will likely keep on leaning on that resistance to position for a drop
back into the 0.6082 support targeting a break below it. The red lines define
the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US Consumer Confidence report where the market will be
focused on the labour market details. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – A look at the chart ahead of the Canadian CPI
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-technical-analysis-a-look-at-the-chart-ahead-of-the-canadian-cpi-20240625/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD last week finished
slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) on Friday which showed growth without
inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for
interest rates remained unchanged. That should be generally positive for risk
sentiment going forward.The CAD, on the other hand,
has been gaining ground against the greenback probably on the back of the
better risk picture. Today, we have the Canadian CPI data and that will definitely
move the Loonie. The market is already pricing around 65% chance of another BoC
rate cut in July and today’s data might seal those expectations. That could weigh on the CAD
in the short term, but it might still appreciate due to the positive risk
sentiment. Stronger inflation figures, on the other hand, should give the
Loonie a boost but it might not be enough to trigger a breakout of the range.USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD is falling back to the key support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
zone around the 1.36 handle. That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in with
a defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the 1.3785
resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
out to the downside to pile in more aggressively and target a drop into the
1.34 handle next. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action between the 1.36 support and the
1.3785 resistance. We got a break below the 1.3680 level yesterday which
triggered some more selling pressure as the key support zone becomes kind of a
magnet for the market. There’s not much to do here other than waiting for the
price to reach the key levels.USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
adding some extra resistance to the 1.3680 level. If we see a pullback into the
resistance today, that’s where we can expect the sellers to pile back in with a
defined risk above the trendline and position for a break below the 1.36
support zone with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking above the trendline to turn the bias
more bullish and position for a rally back into the 1.3785 resistance. The red
lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the Canadian CPI data and the US Consumer Confidence report. On
Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude the week with the Canadian GDP and the US PCE report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – We are back at the key support zone
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/bitcoin-technical-analysis-we-are-back-at-the-key-support-zone-20240624/
Fundamental
OverviewDespite good data on the inflation (https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-feds-preferred-measure-of-inflation-is-expected-to-ease-further-20240614/)
and growth (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/)
front, Bitcoin couldn’t find a sustained bid amid the generally positive risk
sentiment. There was no real catalyst for the drop other than a key technical
support getting breached. We got a quick drop into a key
support zone today which will likely attract more buyers looking to buy the dip at
better levels.Bitcoin
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoin dropped all the way back to the key 60000 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
zone after breaking below the 67275 level. The sellers for now remain in
control but we can expect the buyers to start piling in around these levels with
a better risk to reward setup.Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the key levels for the buyers which will be:the support zone around the
60000 level andthe major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
around the 58000 region. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking below those levels to increase the bearish bets into new lows. Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better
risk to reward setup at the downward trendline around the 64000 level. The
buyers will want to see the price breaking above the most
recent lower high at 63000 to find some footing and eventually get the price above
the trendline to gain more conviction and increase the bullish bets into a new
all-time high. Upcoming
CatalystsThis week (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is a bit light on the data front although we will still get to see some
important releases. We begin tomorrow with the US Consumer Confidence where the
market will be focused on the labour market details. On Thursday, we get the
latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the
US PCE.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD runs up to swing area/retracement target and backs off.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-runs-up-to-swing-arearetracement-target-and-backs-off-20240701/
The USDCAD have been able to run higher yesterday helped by higher US rates. The run higher has taken the price above its 100 bar moving out on a 4-hour chart and 50% midpoint of the trading range since mid April near 1.3716, and up toward a swing area and 61.8% retracement of the same range since April near 1.3745.Sellers leaned against the higher target. The price is rotated marginally lower. What next?In this video, I outline what needs to be done for the buyers to take more control. Conversely, for sellers, this is the area to lean against if expectations are for the up-and-down trading range to continue in the USDCAD pair.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD moves back below 100 bar MA on 4-hour chart
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-moves-back-below-100-bar-ma-on-4-hour-chart-20240701/
The EURUSD has rotated back to the downside as yields continue to run higher with the 10 year now up 14 basis points. That comes despite weaker ISM data. The US Supreme Court did rule in favor of Donald Trump regarding presidential immunity which makes prosecution for January 6th a hard hurdle. Whether that is the influence, I am not sure, but stocks have also slipped. It has been a good few days for former president Trump as the current President Biden stumbles and fumbles into the election. Does a Trump victory mean more tariffs, higher inflation. Maybe a new Fed Chair who is more dovish than Powell? Does that not sit well with the bond market. Trump wants to lower tax rates as well. It might have worked at the start of his last 4 years, but coming off higher inflation and stronger economy is it not so good? We are learning. Technically, the price of the EURUSD has broken below its 100 bar moving average on 4-hour chart at 1.0734 and enters into a swing year between 1.0719 and 1.07346. Falling below the low of that swing everyone at traders looking toward the bottoms over the last three trading weeks between 1.0665 and 1.06703 (close enough for a triple bottom?) Watching 1.07196.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for July 1 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-july-1-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20240701/
It is a new trading week, month and quarter. The EURUSD and GBPUSD are higher (lower USD) as the market reacts to elections in France and prepares for the UK election on Thursday. The USDJPY continues its run to the upside with the pair reaching the highest level since 1986. In the Kickstart video for July 1, i take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs. The EURUSD has extended above its 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.07345. That level will be the key short-term barometer for traders today and going forward. Staying above is more bullish. Moving below would put the sellers more in control in the short-term. On the upside, there is a cluster of moving averages between 1.0786 and 1.0795 that will be key levels to get above if the buyers are to take more control in the week and going forward.The USDJPY has continued its run to the upside, trading to the highest level since 1986. Recall on Friday, the dip to the downside stalled just ahead of the rising 100-hour moving average. The price has not traded below its 100-hour moving average since June 14. That price for the 100 hour moving average comes in at 160.50. It would take a move below that level and also below the high price from earlier this year at 160.21 to tilt the bias back to the downside. Absent that, and the buyers remain in firm control in the trending market. The GBPUSD moved higher with the EURUSD in the Asian session, and has rotated lower in the early European and NA session. The price has moved below eight 200 hour moving average 1.2665, but stays above its 100 hour moving average 1.2652. Those moving averages will be barometers for the trading day. Staying/moving above each would give the buyers the edge at least in the short term for the pair. UK election will take place on Thursday with all results being released at 5 PM ET/2200 BST.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The GBP is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-gbp-is-the-strongest-and-the-chf-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240701/
As the NA session begins the GBP is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The UK election is approaching on July 4 with Labour expected to win the majority. An exit poll will be released at 22:00 BST/5 PM EST, with expectations of a strong Labour majority. The outcome is largely priced in, so any GBP movement may be brief. Post-election focus will be on Labour's budgetary measures, aiming for low taxes and economic stability. Markets doubt current spending plans are fully funded, suggesting possible tax rises in the Autumn budget. The election is not expected to affect the BoE's rate easing plans. Other potential outcomes include a small Labour majority, a hung parliament, or an unlikely Conservative victory.Over the weekend, France's far-right National Rally party and its allies secured 33% of the vote in the first round of parliamentary elections, followed by the leftwing New Popular Front at 28% and President Emmanuel Macron's centrist bloc at 20%. The euro and the CAC 40 index both rose in response to the results. The EURUSD rallied in response trading to the highest level since June 13, but has backed off over the last few hours of trading. .German CPI was just released and came in at 2.2% versus 2.3% estimate. The prior month was at 2.4%.Today, the PMI data out of Europe was mixed:Spanish Manufacturing PMI: Actual 52.3 vs. Estimate 53.1, Previous 54.0 (WORSE).Swiss Manufacturing PMI: Actual 43.9 vs. Estimate 45.2, Previous 46.4 (WORSE).Italian Manufacturing PMI: Actual 45.7 vs. Estimate 44.3, Previous 45.6 (BETTER).French Final Manufacturing PMI: Actual 45.4 vs. Estimate 45.3, Previous 45.3 (MET).German Final Manufacturing PMI: Actual 43.5 vs. Estimate 43.4, Previous 43.4 (MET).Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI: Actual 45.8 vs. Estimate 45.6, Previous 45.6 (BETTER).UK Final Manufacturing PMI: Actual 50.9 vs. Estimate 51.4, Previous 51.4 (WORSE).In the North American session today, Canada is on holiday in observance of Canada Day (the US will celebrate its Independence Day on July 4):9:45am USD: Final Manufacturing PMI (Estimate 51.7 elementary: 51.7).10:00am USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (estimate 49.2 versus 48.7 last month). 10:00am USD: ISM Manufacturing Prices (estimate 55.8 versus 57.0 last month).10:00am USD: Construction Spending m/m (estimate: 0.3% versus -0.1% last month).3:00pm EUR: ECB President Lagarde Speaks.Looking ahead to this week's major events:Fed chair Powell along with ECB Pres. Lagarde will speak on a panel on Tuesday at 9:30 AM ETThe US JOLTs report will be released on Wednesday at 10 AM ET kickstarting the countdown to the US jobs report on FridayADP will release its payrolls estimate on Wednesday with expectations of 156K versus 152K last month.US ISM services PMI will also be released on Wednesday with expectations of 52.5 versus estimate of 53.8 last monthUK elections on July 4. US markets will be closed for the July 4 holiday.US jobs report will be released on Friday, July 5 at 8:30 AM with expectations of 189K versus 272K last month. Canada will also release it jobs report on Friday.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading up $0.42 or 0.52% at $81.96. At this time Friday, the price was at $82.09Gold is trading up $11.57 or 0.50% at $2338. At this time Friday, the price was trading at $2335.32Silver is trading at $0.16 or 0.59% at $21.29. At this time on Friday, the price is trading at $29.48.Bitcoin trades sharply at $62,600. At this time Friday, the price was trading up at $61,314Ethereum is also trading at $3458.90. At this time Friday, the price was trading at $3436In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are trading higher in premarket trading after small changes last weekDow Industrial Average futures are implying
USDJPY Technical Analysis – The bullish bias remains intact
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-the-bullish-bias-remains-intact-20240701/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD started the week on
the backfoot as the new month begins. The last week’s strength might have been
influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as the
economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. Nonetheless, the data
continues to support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth without
inflationary pressures. Even if the US Dollar weakens against the other major currencies, the JPY in this environment
should keep losing ground and the Japanese officials
can’t do much to reverse the trend unless the fundamentals change. We will
likely need weak US growth data to see some sustained Yen strength, although it
might be short lived if it’s not enough to make the market to price in more
aggressive rate cuts for the Fed. USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY eventually managed to break above the key 160.00 handle and
extended the rally as the lack of intervention gave the market a bit more
confidence to target new highs. If we get a pullback into
the 160.00 level, we can expect the buyers to step back in with a defined risk
below the level to target new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price falling back below the 160.00 handle to gain some conviction
and start targeting the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) around the 157.00 handle. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor trendline defining the current upward momentum. We can
expect the buyers to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs,
while the sellers will need to see the price breaking below the trendline and
the 160.00 level to start targeting new lows. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 161.25 level as the price
continues to consolidate just beneath it. The buyers will want to see the price
breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 165.00 level next, while
the sellers will keep on looking for a break below the trendline to target a
pullback into the 160.00 handle. The white lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsThis week (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is full of important events. We begin today with the release of the US
ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we have the US Job Openings and Fed Chair
Powell speaking. On Wednesday, we get the US ADP, the US Jobless Claims, the US
ISM Services PMI and the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday is going to be a US
Holiday for Independence Day. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the
US NFP report. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – The consolidation continues
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-the-consolidation-continues-20240628/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD continues to be backed
by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-consumer-confidence-1004-vs-1000-expected-20240625/) report this week. Yesterday, we
also got the US Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-233k-vs-236k-expected-20240627/) figures where the data showed that
the labour market continues to rebalance via less job availability rather than
more layoffs. Such data keeps the
interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year and
supports the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth without inflationary
pressures. The EUR, on the other hand,
has been under pressure due to some US Dollar strength this week. It looks like
the price action has been influenced more by month-end, quarter-end and mid
year-end flows rather than something fundamental. The market participants
should also consider that this weekend we have the first round of the French
elections (https://www.forexlive.com/news/france-on-the-verge-of-a-political-standstill-20240625/) on the agenda which could lead to a gap on Monday. Therefore, it
shouldn’t be surprising to see some defensive EUR positioning into the weekend
if it happens.EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD has been consolidating just beneath the key 1.0727 level. As
the price stays below the level, it skews the bias more to the downside as the
sellers continue to pile in for a drop into the 1.06 handle. The buyers will
want to see the price rallying back above the 1.0727 level to regain some
control and start targeting new highs. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) around the 1.0680 level where the price got
rejected from several times in the past days. We can also see that the price
has been printing lower highs as the market kept testing the support. This is a
bearish price action and it also formed what looks like a descending triangle (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/). A breakout to the downside
should see the bearish momentum increasing with the sellers piling in for a
drop into the 1.06 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see a
breakout to the upside to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally
into the 1.08 handle. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an interesting zone around the 1.07 handle as the price
reacted to it several times. This is acting as kind of a barometer for the
sentiment with the price staying above being more bullish and below being more
bearish. There’s not much else we can glean from this chart as the buyers will
keep on stepping in around support zones and the sellers will lean on the
resistances. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US PCE report where the market expects
the Core PCE to fall further towards the Fed’s 2% target.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis – The rangebound price action continues
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-the-rangebound-price-action-continues-20240628/
Fundamental
OverviewThis was a messy week for many markets, including gold. After some up and
downs, we are ending the week basically flat. There was no real change in the
fundamentals this week as the data just showed some more rebalancing in the US
labour market but didn’t signal any material weakness. As of now, it looks like gold have limited downside but lots of upside as
inflation abates slowly while risks to the growth picture increase the longer
the Fed keeps policy restrictive. In the short-term, strong US data might weigh
a bit on the market, but in the long-term weak data is likely to trigger bigger
upside moves.Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold has been mostly rangebound although the market maintains a
bullish bias. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better
risk to reward setup around the key 2277 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/). The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the support to change the bias
and increase the bearish bets into the next support around the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence. Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action around the 2325 zone. We got
another quick drop recently, but the price eventually erased the losses and
came back to the 2325 area. The buyers will want to see
the price breaking above the recent swing high at 2337 to gain more conviction
and position for a rally into the 2387 level next. The sellers, on the other
hand, will likely continue to pile in around these levels to position for a
drop into the 2277 support targeting a break below it. Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see the messy price action of the past few weeks as the market awaits a
catalyst to get things going. A break below the 2318 level could see the market
extending the drop towards the 2277 support. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US PCE report where the market expects
the Core PCE to fall further towards the Fed’s 2% target. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Flows dominate the price action
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-technical-analysis-flows-dominate-the-price-action-20240627/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD continues to be
backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-consumer-confidence-1004-vs-1000-expected-20240625/) report this week. Although such
data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of
the year, it should also support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth.
This could be a headwind for the greenback. The GBP, on the other hand,
has been under pressure since the BoE policy decision (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-525-as-expected-20240620/) where the central bank dropped some
dovish signals (https://www.forexlive.com/news/august-back-in-the-picture-for-the-boe-20240620/) and kept the door open for a rate
cut in August. This week the Pound has been under pressure mainly due to some
US Dollar strength. It looks like the price
action is being influenced more by month-end, quarter-end and half year-end
flows though rather than something fundamental. We had also a key breakout in
USDJPY yesterday and flows there might have spilled over to other major pairs.GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD is testing once again the support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
at 1.2635 as the buyers continue to step in around this level to position for a
rally into new highs with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to gain more conviction
and increase the bearish bets into the 1.25 handle next.GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the downside momentum seems to be slowing as the lower lows get
shallower. This might be a signal for a reversal although a break to the
downside could invalidate it. The buyers will want to see
the price breaking above the downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
to gain more conviction and increase the bullish bets into the 1.28 handle. The
sellers, on the other hand, might lean on the trendline to position for a break
below the support with a better risk to reward setup.GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have the upper limit of the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today standing right around the
trendline. It’s unlikely that we will see a break to the upside today, but it
will be something to watch in the next days as quarter-end flows fade out. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude
the week with the US PCE report. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – We are approaching a key resistance
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-technical-analysis-we-are-approaching-a-key-resistance-20240627/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD continues to be
backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-consumer-confidence-1004-vs-1000-expected-20240625/) report this week. Although such
data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of
the year, it should also support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth.
This could be a headwind for the greenback. The CHF, on the other hand,
weakened after the SNB cut interest rates (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/snb-cuts-key-policy-rate-by-25-bps-to-125-from-150-previously-20240620/) by 25 bps to 1.25%. The market was
pricing a 68% chance of a cut going into the decision, so it wasn’t really a
surprise. The central bank also lowered its inflation forecasts though, so that
added to the Swiss Franc weakness. The only thing bullish for
the CHF was the line saying that the SNB “will be ready to intervene in FX
market if needed and as necessary”, although we already know that, and they
won’t do it unless inflation surprises to the upside or they see risks of
inflation overshooting their projections.USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF is approaching a key resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) around the 0.90 handle. That’s
where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level
to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the highs.USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have also the 50% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level adding confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/) to the resistance level. If we get
an upside breakout, the next target should be the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
around the 0.9050 level, which is also where we will likely find the sellers piling
in for a drop into new lows. USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that if we were to get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the support
zone around the 0. 8945 to position for a breakout with a better risk to reward
setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude
the week with the US PCE report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Copper Technical Analysis
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/copper-technical-analysis-20240626/
Fundamental
OverviewCopper remains under pressure, albeit the bearish momentum appears to be
slowing. Last week, the FT reported that stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses hit
their highest level since 2020 amid weak demand due to China's real estate
sector downturn. Given the high prices reached in the previous month,
manufacturers refrained from buying since they had an incentive to deplete
their inventories. The FT also reported that Chinese copper fabricators appeared to have
resumed buying the metal, with stocks showing minor declines in recent weeks.
All else being equal, if we continue to see the pickup in global growth, we
could see new highs in the coming months, although more policy support from the
Chinese officials would give the market a stronger boost.Copper
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that after a minor bounce, copper fell back to the 4.35 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
where we can also find the 50% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/). This is where we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally
into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 4.00 level.Copper Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the downside momentum seems to be slowing as the lower lows get shallower.
This might be a signal for a reversal although a break to the downside could
invalidate it. If we do get a rally from these
levels, the first target for the buyers should be around the 4.66 level where
we can find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire correction. That’s
also where we can expect the sellers to step back in with a better risk to
reward setup to target a break below the 4.35 support.Copper Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current downward
momentum. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to gain more
conviction and increase the bullish bets into the 4.66 level. The red lines
define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude the week with the US PCE.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – We got a key breakout recently
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-technical-analysis-we-got-a-key-breakout-recently-20240626/
Fundamental
OverviewCrude oil managed to eventually
break above the key $80 resistance as the market has finally started to catch
up to positive drivers. In fact, we got the recent OPEC+'s extension of
voluntary output cuts (https://www.forexlive.com/news/goldman-sachs-says-the-opec-meeting-outcome-is-bearish-for-oil-20240602/), and we are seeing a pickup in economic
activity as the US
PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) showed once again last Friday. We have also some major
central banks beginning to ease their policies and China will likely continue
to do so as deflationary forces remain present. This should support the demand
outlook in the big picture. Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil managed to break above the key resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) around the 80 level and
consolidated ever since. The buyers will keep on piling in around these levels
with a defined risk below to position for a rally into the 84.50 level next. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price falling back below the 80 zone to regain some
control and target a drop into the 77 level. Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the consolidation right above the key resistance
now turned support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-polarity-20220408/). We had a very strong run from the lows around the 72.50
level, so a little bit of consolidation is normal. There’s not much else we can
glean from this chart as the buyers will keep leaning on the support zone while
the sellers will wait for a break lower to pile in with more conviction.Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a range between the 80 support and the 81.80 resistance. For
now, the market participants will likely keep “playing the range” but a
breakout on either side should see the momentum picking up steam. The red lines
define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude the week with the US PCE.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – The market is testing the intervention level again
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-the-market-is-testing-the-intervention-level-again-20240626/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD continues to be backed
by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) last Friday and the US
Consumer Confidence (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-consumer-confidence-1004-vs-1000-expected-20240625/) report yesterday. Such data keeps the interest rates
expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year and supports the risk
sentiment amid a pickup in growth. The JPY in this environment
should keep losing ground against the major currencies. We will likely need
weak US growth data to see some sustained Yen strength, although it might be
short lived if it’s not enough to make the market to price in more aggressive
rate cuts for the Fed. USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY after a minor dip on Monday, rallied back to the intervention
level at the 160.00 handle. Remember, that an intervention is not guaranteed as
the Japanese are fighting against strong fundamentals and the market is much
bigger than them.Nonetheless, we might see reactions
like we did on Monday as buyers could square their positions and the sellers
could pile in with a defined risk above the level. For now, the path of least
resistance remains to the upside.USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that in case we get a pullback from the intervention level, the buyers will
likely step back in around the 158.00 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/). The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the 158.00 support to increase
the bearish bets into the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) around the 156.00 level. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. The buyers will likely keep on leaning against the trendline with a
defined risk below it to position for a break above the 160.00 resistance with
a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
into the 158.00 support. The red dotted lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude the week with the Tokyo CPI and the US PCE. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Tech weakness weighs on the market
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-500-technical-analysis-tech-weakness-weighs-on-the-market-20240625/
Fundamental
OverviewWe got a bit of a pullback in the S&P 500 in the last few days. If we
were to try to find a catalyst, the second miss in a row in the US
Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-238k-vs-235k-estimate-20240620/) last Thursday could be it, but the data was still pretty
good and not worrying in the grand scheme of things. In fact, the US
PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) last Friday showed a pretty good pickup in growth without inflationary
pressures. That should be good news for the market and the risk sentiment in
general. The index was dragged down mainly because of tech weakness with Nvidia (https://www.forexlive.com/news/nvidia-extends-decline-to-5-nasdaq-follows-it-lower-20240624/)
extending the correction to 16% from the all-time high (it’s positive in
pre-market trading at the moment). If we look at the other markets, the Russell
2000 and the Dow were up and growth sensitive sectors like Industrials and
Financials have been positive. Also keep in mind that it's quarter-end which could skew the price action. Overall, it just looks like a healthy pullback.S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that we got a bit of a pullback in the S&P 500 in the last few days. From
a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward
setup around the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) where they will also find the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/) of the 50% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level. At the moment though, it’s hard
to envision such a big pullback unless we get some really ugly US data. S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price is testing the minor trendline around the 5510 level. This
is where we can expect the buyers stepping in with a defined risk below the
trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish momentum
and position for a drop into the major trendline around the 5360 level. S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a good support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
around the 5510 level adding some further confluence to the trendline which
should technically strengthen the support zone. The buyers will then need to
break above the 5555 resistance to gain more conviction and increase the
bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US Consumer Confidence report where the market will be
focused on the labour market details. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis – The strong US PMIs weighed on the market
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-the-strong-us-pmis-weighed-on-the-market-20240625/
Fundamental
OverviewGold got hit hard last Friday by the strong US
PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) as real yields rose following the data release. The report though
showed that inflationary pressures continue to abate and that’s also the reason
why the market’s expectation for interest rates remained unchanged. The
overreaction from the US PMIs is getting slowly erased this week as the market
digests the data. As of now, it looks like gold have limited downside but lots of upside as
inflation abates slowly while risks to the growth picture increase the longer
the Fed keeps policy restrictive. In the short-term, strong US data might weigh
a bit on the market, but in the long-term weak data is likely to trigger bigger
upside moves.Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold has been mostly rangebound although the market maintains a
bullish bias. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better
risk to reward setup around the key 2277 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
zone where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/).
The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the support to change the bias
and increase the bearish bets into the next support around the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence. Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action around the 2325 zone where we can
also find an upward trendline adding some extra support. This is where we can
expect the buyers to step in trying to fade the overreaction from the US PMIs
and position for a rally into the 2387 level next.The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the upward trendline to
increase the bearish momentum and position for a drop into the key 2277
support. Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see the selloff triggered by the US PMIs and the consolidation around the 2325 level.
A break above the 2335 level should give the buyers more confidence to pile in as
the momentum would turn more bullish. The red lines define the average
daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US Consumer Confidence report where the market will be
focused on the labour market details. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-20240624/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD last week finished
slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-sp-global-flash-services-pmi-551-vs-537-20240621/) on Friday which showed growth without
inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for
interest rates remained unchanged. That should be positive for risk sentiment
for the time being.The EUR, on the other hand,
got hit on Friday following the disappointing Eurozone
PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-european-fx-news-wrap-euro-slips-after-soggy-pmi-data-20240621/), although the losses were erased this morning. The risk sentiment has
been gradually improving, so we might see the greenback coming back under
pressure if this were to persist. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD has been kind of rangebound around the 1.07 handle as the
sellers have been struggling to get the bearish momentum going further. The
1.0727 remains a key level with the price trading below it being more bearish
and above it more bullish. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
zone around the 1.0727 level where we can also find the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/) of the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/).This is where we can expect
the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for
a drop into the 1.06 handle next. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking higher to pile in with more conviction and start targeting
the 1.08 handle.EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have the upper limit of the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today standing right around the
resistance. Therefore, it’s unlikely that we will see a breakout to the upside today
but watch out for the next days as we get some important US data tomorrow and
on Thursday. Upcoming
CatalystsThis week (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is a bit light on the data front although we will still get to see some
important releases. We begin tomorrow with the US Consumer Confidence where the
market will be focused on the labour market details. On Thursday, we get the
latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the
US PCE.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
