AUDUSD Technical Analysis – We broke out of a two-month range
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-technical-analysis-we-broke-out-of-a-two-month-range-20240705/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board following soft US Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-238k-versus-235k-estimate-20240703/) and ISM Services PMI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/ism-nonmanufacturing-pmi-for-june-488-versus-525-estimate-20240703/) reports. Overall, the data didn’t
change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view
that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year.
The AUD, on the other hand,
has been under pressure mainly due to the US Dollar strength last week which
has been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something
fundamental. This week, the US Dollar is back on the defensive as the market
continues to trade the soft-landing narrative. Moreover, the Australian
Dollar should be favoured in such environment as it’s also backed by a slightly
more hawkish RBA (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-recap-more-alert-to-upside-inflation-risks-less-confident-inflation-is-moderating-20240618/). Recently, the Aussie got a boost from another
hot monthly CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/australia-weighted-cpi-yy-40-vs-38-expected-20240626/) report which raised the chances of
a rate hike (https://www.forexlive.com/news/is-a-rate-hike-back-on-the-menu-for-the-rba-20240626/), although RBA’s Hauser (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rbas-hauser-it-would-be-a-bad-mistake-to-set-policy-on-the-basis-of-one-number-20240627/) poured some cold water on the
expectations as he would rather hold rates steady for longer. AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD broke out of the two-month long range recently as the price
rallied above the key resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) around the 0.6713 level following
the soft US data on Wednesday.We should see the buyers increasing
the bullish bets around this level to position for a rally into the 0.6870
level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling
back inside the range to invalidate the breakout and position for a drop into
the 0.66 support. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the breakouts of the recent mini range at 0.6680 and the major
one at 0.6713. The US NFP report today is going to be key. If we get bad data,
the market might go into risk-off and leave behind a fakeout as the pair will
likely fall back inside the range. A good or benign report, on the other hand,
should confirm the breakout and lead to a more sustained uptrend. AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a good support around the 0.6700-0.6713 zone where we can
also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/)level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/). If we get a
pullback, that’s where the buyers will likely step in to position for the continuation
of the uptrend. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop back
into the bottom of the range around the 0.66 level. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US NFP report where the data is expected
to show 190K jobs added in June and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged
at 4.0%.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – The US Dollar remains on the backfoot
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-technical-analysis-the-us-dollar-remains-on-the-backfoot-20240704/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD yesterday weakened
across the board following soft US Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-238k-versus-235k-estimate-20240703/) and ISM Services PMI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/ism-nonmanufacturing-pmi-for-june-488-versus-525-estimate-20240703/) reports. Overall, the data didn’t
change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view
that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year.
The NZD, on the other hand,
has been under pressure mainly due to the US Dollar strength last week which
has been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something
fundamental. This week, the US Dollar is back on the defensive as the market
continues to trade the soft-landing narrative. NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD probed below the key support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) around the 0.6082 level last week but
eventually failed to sustain the breakout. The buyers seem now back in control
and the first target should be 0.6217 resistance. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower again to gain more conviction
and increase the bearish bets into the 0.60 handle next. NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price yesterday broke above the downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
which was defining the bearish momentum. The buyers increased the bullish bets
as they gained a bit more conviction to position for a rally back into the
0.6217 resistance. NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a good support zone around the 0.61 handle where we can find
the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/)
of the 50% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level and the upward minor trendline. If we do get a pullback
from the current levels, we can expect the buyers to step in around the support
to position for a rally into the resistance with a better risk to reward setup.
The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline and the 0.6080
zone to regain control and increase the bearish bets into the 0.60 handle next.
The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US NFP report where the data is expected
to show 180K jobs added in June and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged
at 4.0%.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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Gold Technical Analysis – The breakout of the range triggered a rally
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-the-breakout-of-the-range-triggered-a-rally-20240704/
Fundamental
OverviewYesterday, gold broke out of the recent range and extended the rally following
some weak US data. In fact, the Continuing
Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-238k-versus-235k-estimate-20240703/) rose to a new high and the ISM
Services PMI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/ism-nonmanufacturing-pmi-for-june-488-versus-525-estimate-20240703/) hit a new cycle low. That made the real yields to drop and
gold to accelerate to the upside. This has been the case for a couple of years now
where a rise in real yields sees a much smaller fall in gold compared to a fall
in real yields which triggers a bigger rally. As of now, it looks like gold have limited downside but lots of upside as
inflation abates slowly while risks to the growth picture increase the longer
the Fed keeps policy restrictive. In the short-term, strong US data might weigh
a bit on the market, but in the long-term weak data is likely to trigger bigger
upside moves.Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold continues to maintain an overall rangebound price action,
although the bias remains bullish. From a risk management perspective, the buyers
will have a better risk to reward setup around the key 2277 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/). The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the support to change the bias
and increase the bearish bets into the next support around the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/), although we will need very strong
US data to trigger such a big correction.Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price yesterday broke out of the recent range between the 2320
support and the 2337 resistance, and extended the rally to the 2360 level as
the buyers piled in on the breakout and increase the bullish bets on the weak
US data. If we get a pullback from
here, we can expect the buyers to step in around the 2340 level where we can
find the confluence of the previous resistance
now turned support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-polarity-20220408/) and the minor trendline. The sellers, on the other hand
will need to see the price falling below the 2320 level to turn the bias more
bearish and extend the correction into the key 2277 support.Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price action is now confined in what could turn out to be a bullish
flag (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/). A breakout to the upside will likely trigger another extension to the
upside with the 2387 level as the target. A breakout to the downside, on the
other hand, should provide the pullback into the 2340 level next. The red lines
define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US NFP report where the data is expected
to show 180K jobs added in June and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged
at 4.0%. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF rebounds from crucial support levels as 100-hour and 100-day MAs intersect
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-bounces-off-the-100-day-ma-again-the-100-hour-ma-stalls-the-bounce-20240703/
The USDCHF moved lower after the weaker than expected US data today. However, after breaking below its 100-hour moving average at 0.90134, its 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.89972, support buyers came in against the key 100-day moving average at 0.89836. Recall from Friday last week and Monday's trade this week, the low prices on those two trading days did find support buyers against that 100-day moving average. So there has been a history of support from traders against that key daily moving average level. Going forward it would take a move below that 100 day moving average and staying below to give the sellers more control. Absent that and the move is a corrective move in what has been a bull market over the last few weeks for the USDCHF. On the top side getting above the 100-hour moving average at 0.90134 is needed to confirm that the dip buyers are taking back control after the selloff today.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for July 3 w/a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-july-3-wa-technical-look-at-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20240703/
In the kickstart video for July 3, 2024, I take a look at three the major currency pairs from a technical perspective - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What is the price action telling traders about the technical bias, the risk, and the targets as the clock ticks toward the early closing stocks and bonds today and the US Independence Day holiday tomorrow. Of course in the UK, the voters will go to the polls tomorrow, with the opposition party Labour, expected to take control. The GBPUSD is higher ahead of that election with the price moving above the 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart. Recall from last week the price held resistance against that moving average. The moving average currently comes in at 1.27144. Staying above is more bullish.The EURUSD is also moving higher in early North American trading with the price extending to new highs for the trading week. Although higher, there is a cluster of resistance defined by the 200-day moving average, the 100-day moving average, the 200-bar moving average on the 4- hour chart, and a sewing area all between 1.0787 and 1.08036 as a key hurdle to get through to increase a bullish bias. That cluster may slow the rally.The USDJPY continues its trend move to the upside as it approaches 162.00 the highest level since 1987. The price remains comfortably above its 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 161.207. If the price cannot get below that moving average (it hasn't traded below it since June 14), the buyers are still winning. The sellers are NOT winning.Find out all about it including the bias, the risks, and the targets for the three major currency pairs in the above video
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-gbp-is-the-strongest-and-the-jpy-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240703/
As the North American session begins the GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mixed/little changed with gains vs the JPY and NZD, declines vs the EUR and GBP, and little changed vs the other major currencies. The US will have a data down as different loads economic releases ahead of the Independence Day holiday tomorrow. The US jobs report will be released on FridayThe USDJPY continues to move higher and traded just short of 162.000 today. In the US today, Challenger layoffs came in lower at 48.786K vs 63.81K last month. Later today, the ADP National Employment data for June will be released at 8:15 AM ET with expectations of 160K versus 152K last month. Recall last month the data was much lower than the BLS non-farm payroll value of 272K . The disparity between both reports often leads to little reaction by the market, but it still is ahead of the BLS report and who's to say it isn't more accurate anyway? Also released today will be US trade data, initial jobless claims (estimate 235K), Canadian trade data, factory orders (estimate 0.2%), and ISM nonmanufacturing data (estimate 52.5 versus 53.8 last month). For comparative purposes, the employment component last month came in at 47.1, while the prices paid was at 58.1.Later this afternoon at 2 PM, the FOMC meeting minutes will be released. Finally, the weekly EIA will inventory data will also be released at 10:30 AM today. Late yesterday, the private crude oil inventory data showed a surprise -9.163M drawdown, but gasoline did show a build of +2.468M . Estimates are for -0.680M oil drawdown, and a gasoline drawdown of -1.32M. A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading up five cents at $82.85. At this time yesterday, the price was at $84.07Gold is trading up $16.50 or 0.71% at $2345.66. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2321.69Silver is trading trade up $0.70 or 2.37% at $30.20. At this time on yesterday, the price is trading at $29.27Bitcoin trades lower at $60,219. At this time yesterday, the price was trading up at $62,680Ethereum is also trading at $3297.80. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $3448.10In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are trading little changed in premarket trading after gains yesterday at the S&P and NASDAQ index to new record high closesDow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 31.15 points. Yesterday, the Dow Industrial Average rose 162.33 points or 0.41% at 39331.86. The all-time high close for the Dow Industrial Average which is 40,003.60.S&P futures are implying a gain of 0.24 points. Yesterday, the S&P index rose 33.90 points or 0.62% at 5509.02. That was a record close.Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -5.64 points. Yesterday, the NASDAQ index rose 149.46 points or 0.84% at 18028.76. That was a record closing levelEuropean stock indices are trading higher:German DAX, +1.01%France CAC +1.56%UK FTSE 100, +0.56% ahead of the election tomorrowSpain's Ibex, +1.20%Italy's FTSE MIB, was 1.3% (delayed 10 minutes)..Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixedJapan's Nikkei 225, +1.26%China's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.49%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +1.18%Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.28%Looking at the US debt market, yields are mixed with the shorter end higher and the longer end lower.2-year yield 4.772%, +3.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.747%5-year yield 4.412%, +1.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.403%10-year yield 4.437%, +0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.443%30-year yield 4.595%, -1.3 basis points basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.609%Looking at the treasury yield curve the spreads became more
Copper Technical Analysis - The bearish momentum has waned
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/copper-technical-analysis-the-bearish-momentum-has-waned-20240703/
Fundamental
OverviewCopper has bounced on a key support recently and extended the gains this
week following the Chinese
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-caixin-manufacturing-pmi-for-june-2024-518-expected-512-prior-517-20240701/) as the survey hit the highest level since May
2021. In the last few weeks, the bearish momentum indeed appeared to be slowing
as the lower lows became shallower. All else being equal, if we continue to see the pickup in global growth, we
could see new highs in the coming months. Indeed, more policy support from the
Chinese officials would give the market a stronger boost.Copper Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that copper eventually bounced on the key 4.35 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) where we had also the 50% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/). That’s where the buyers stepped in
with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into a new all-time
high. The sellers will want to
see the price breaking below the 4.35 support to get back control and increase the
bearish bets into the 4.00 level.Copper Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have now an important level at 4.52, which is the most recent lower
high. Technically, a break above it should change the bias from bearish to
bullish and give the buyers more conviction to increase the bets into new
highs. The sellers, on the other
hand, will likely step in around this level with a defined risk above it to
position for a drop back into the 4.35 support targeting a break below it. Copper Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
defining the current bullish momentum. From a risk management perspective, the
buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they
will also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and target a drop
below the key 4.35 support zone. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US ADP, the US Jobless Claims, the US ISM Services PMI and
the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow is going to be a US Holiday for Independence
Day. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD buyers remain in control with the price above 100/200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-buyers-remain-in-control-with-the-price-above-100200-bar-ma-on-the-4-hour-chart-20240702/
The AUDUSD buyers remain in control with the price above the 100/200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Both those MAs come in at 0.6644. The price is currently near 0.6662. Going into the close - and into the new trading day - those MA will be the key barometer for the pair. Staying above would be more bullish and traders would look toward the high of the value area going back to mid-April. That area comes in at 0.6689. Move above that and the high from May at 0.67135 would be targeted. Conversely, move below the 100/200 bar MAs on the 4-hour chart, and a swing area between 0.66189, the traders would look down toward the 100-day MA and 38.2% of the range since the April low at 0.6579.Buyers are more in control above the 100/200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Can they keep that bias going forward and get outside the range that has confined most of the trading over the last few months?
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Tesla shares digging itself out of the hole, but still down on the year
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/tesla-shares-digging-itself-out-of-the-hole-but-still-down-on-the-year-20240702/
Tesla reported better deliveries today but are still down on the year:Deliveries 444K vs 387K in Q1Deliveries down 5% y/yThe numbers today have Tesla shares trading up $18.41 or 8.78% at $228.27. That comes after a gain of 6.08% yesterday. Since the most recent low on June 11 at $167.41 the price has surged 36.42%. From the 2024 low at $138.80 reached on April 22, the price is up 64.53% Despite the gains, the shares of Tesla are still below the end-of-year closing level at $248.42 (down -7%).Technically, the price of Tesla gapped higher, and moved above and away from the 50% midpoint of the move down from the July 2024 high price at $219.05. Staying above that level is more bullish in the short term at least. The next target comes at the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the 2024 high at $237.98. Above that the closing level from 2023 comes in at $248.42.The high price for 2023 reached just short of $300 a share at $299.29
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
US dollar moves lower after Fed Chair Powell's initial remarks
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/us-dollar-moves-lower-after-fed-chair-powells-initial-remarks-20240702/
The initial comments from Fed's Powell has helped to push yields lower with the 10 year yield now down -6.1 basis points. That has also led to a decline in the US dollar:EURUSD is moved above it swing area between 1.07208 to 1.07346. The price high just reached 1.07462. The 50% of the range since mid-April comes in at 1.07579 and represents the next target for buyers.USDJPY is moving lower and tests the high price on Friday at 161.275, breaking below that level would have traders looking toward the 100-hour moving average at 160.944 (blue line on the chart below). Getting and staying below that 100-hour moving average would be the first break since June 14. As such it represents a key technical level for sellers to get to and through if they are to take more control.GBPUSD is pushing to new highs and is approaching its 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.26909. The 200 bar MA on the same chart comes in at 1.27132.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for July 2 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-july-2-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20240702/
In the kickstart video for July 2, 2024, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What is the bias? What are the risk? What are targets? All will be discussed in the above video.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The CAD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-cad-is-the-strongest-and-the-nzd-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240702/
As the North American session begins, the CAD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is mostly stronger - but modestly - with gains vs all the major currencies with the exception of the CAD and GBP (which are virtually unchanged). Overnight, ECB core CPI came in stronger at 2.9% versus 2.8% expected (unchanged from last month). The headline data was as expected however.There was plenty of ECB speak overnight. Some of the highlights:Wunsch said there is room for second breakup barring any major negative surprises. Most are expecting 1 to 2 by the end of the year.Lane said that June inflation data seems in line with our assessment, Buck commented that service inflation remains essential and that the ECB needed to take a bit of time to assess inflation.di Guindos said we are not following a predetermined path on interest rates and that uncertainty remains high.Muller agreed that we can probably cut rates again before year end, but should not rush to do so and the patient with further rate cuts.Centeno said that every meeting is open for us to make a decision but said that we were to be prudent on rates. He did add that there is confidence that inflation will hit 2%percent target next year.Vasle at that we can cut rates further things go as expected, but need more data to confirm inflation trajectory.In Australia, ING overnight said that they are now expecting a rate hike at the next RBA interest rate decision. Last week the Australia CPI data rose by 4.1% versus 3.8% prior (click here for the full story (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/leaning-towards-forecasting-a-hike-at-the-rba-august-meeting-20240702/)).There was some Fed officials speaking overnight. New York Fed President John Williams expressed confidence that the Federal Reserve is on track to achieve its 2% inflation target sustainably. He noted that he continues to see moderating price pressures, reinforcing his belief in the Fed's current path. Williams made these remarks in a video for a Bank for International Settlements conference.In other chatter, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that current interest rates are restrictive, which could become problematic if maintained for too long. He highlighted emerging warning signs in the job market and emphasized the importance of monitoring jobs reports and price data. Goolsbee noted a series of improved inflation readings in the U.S., suggesting a potential path back towards the 2% inflation target. He indicated that if inflation normalizes, interest rates will also return to more typical levels.Today, Powell is speaking at 1330 GMT / 0930 US Eastern time at the ECB forum in Sintra. He will be joined by ECB Pres. Lagarde on the panel. Period the job to job report will add to the employment data ahead of the BLS job report on Friday. The expectations are for job openings to come in at 7.96 million down from 8.06 million last month. Looking ahead to Friday, the non-farm payroll is expected to add 195,000 jobs versus 272,000 last month.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading up $0.71 or 0.84% at $84.07. At this time yesterday, the price was at $81.96Gold is trading down $9.98 or -0.43% at $2321.69. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2338Silver is trading down $0.17 or -0.59% at $29.27. At this time on yesterday, the price is trading at $29.29Bitcoin trades at $62,680. At this time yesterday, the price was trading up at $62,600Ethereum is also trading at $3448.10. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $3458.90In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are trading lower in premarket trading after gains yesterday. In the second act closed at a record level.Dow Industrial Average futures are implying
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – The key breakout increased the bullish momentum
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-technical-analysis-the-key-breakout-increased-the-bullish-momentum-20240702/
Fundamental
OverviewCrude oil extended the
gains after breaking above the key $80 resistance as the market eventually
caught up to the positive drivers. In fact, we got the OPEC+'s extension of
voluntary output cuts (https://www.forexlive.com/news/goldman-sachs-says-the-opec-meeting-outcome-is-bearish-for-oil-20240602/), and we’ve been seeing a pickup in
economic activity.We have also some major
central banks beginning to ease their policies and China will likely continue
to do so as deflationary forces remain present. All else being equal, this
should support the demand outlook in the big picture. Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil broke through the key resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) around the 80 level and after some
consolidation, extended the gains as the buyers piled in more aggressively. The
first target should be the 84.50 level where we might get a rejection and
possibly a pullback as the sellers will likely step in with a defined risk
above the level to position for a drop back into the 80 level. Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
now defining the current bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, the buyers
will likely lean on it to position for a break above the 84.50 level with a
better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 80 level. Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more closely the recent price action with the rally yesterday following the
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-ism-manufacturing-index-485-vs-491-expected-20240701/). That was a headscratcher as the data came out on the
softer side. Nonetheless, the buyers
might want to wait for a pullback before increasing their positions, while the
sellers will want to lean on the 84.50 resistance and increase the bearish bets
on key downside breaks. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US Job Openings and Fed Chair Powell speaking. Tomorrow, we
get the US ADP, the US Jobless Claims, the US ISM Services PMI and the FOMC
Meeting Minutes. Thursday is going to be a US Holiday for Independence Day.
Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis – The price action remains rangebound
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-the-price-action-remains-rangebound-20240702/
Fundamental
OverviewThe price action in gold continues to be rangebound amid some mixed drivers.
The real yields rose recently and that kept a lid on the upside, but there was
no signal of inflationary pressures in the economic data and interest rates
expectations remained unchanged. There is a compelling narrative emerging since the Trump-Biden debate that
Trump has basically already won the elections and his policies will be
inflationary. That would keep real yields higher for longer or even lead to a
sizeable increase. Although, this narrative has some good arguments, it looks premature to
price in such developments now given that the context is different. The market
might have moved on it so much mainly because there was nothing else happening.
In the next weeks though we will get many key economic releases including
the NFP and CPI, so it will be interesting to see how the market will react to
these catalysts.Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold continues to maintain a rangebound price action. From a risk
management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup
around the key 2277 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/). The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the support to change the bias
and increase the bearish bets into the next support around the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence. Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price is now trading inside a tight range between the 2320 level
and the 2337 resistance. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to
gain more conviction and position for a rally into the 2387 level next. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to keep
targeting a drop into the 2277 support.Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the tight range as we await the key catalysts in the next days.
If the price stays below the 2320 level, it will keep the bias more bearish in
the short term, while staying above the 2337 level would keep it more bullish. The
red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US Job Openings and Fed Chair Powell speaking. Tomorrow, we
get the US ADP, the US Jobless Claims, the US ISM Services PMI and the FOMC
Meeting Minutes. Thursday is going to be a US Holiday for Independence Day.
Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – The soft US data triggered a correction
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-the-soft-us-data-triggered-a-correction-20240705/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board following soft US Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-238k-versus-235k-estimate-20240703/) and ISM Services PMI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/ism-nonmanufacturing-pmi-for-june-488-versus-525-estimate-20240703/) reports. Overall, the data didn’t
change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view
that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year.
All else being equal, the risk sentiment should remain supported amid the pickup
in global growth. Even if the US Dollar
weakens against the other major currencies, the JPY in this environment should
keep losing ground and the Japanese officials can’t do much to reverse the
trend unless the fundamentals change. We will likely need weak US growth data
to see some sustained Yen strength, although it might be short lived if it’s
not enough to make the market to price in more aggressive rate cuts for the
Fed.USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY started a pullback after the soft US data on Wednesday. From a
risk management perspective, the buyers will likely step back in around the 160.00
level with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into new highs.The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the 160.00 handle to increase
the bearish bets into the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
around the 157.00 level. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke below a key minor trendline that was defining the bullish
momentum from the 156.00 level. The sellers piled in one the break to position
for a drop into the 160.00 level. That’s where the buyers will look to buy the
dip with a better risk to reward setup. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the latest leg lower printed a new lower low, so we now have a minor
downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. If we get a pullback,
the sellers will likely lean on the trendline to position for a continuation of
the pullback into the 160.00 handle with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to regain some control and
position for a rally into new highs. The white lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US NFP report where the data is expected
to show 190K jobs added in June and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged
at 4.0%. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – We are back to the bottom of the range
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-technical-analysis-we-are-back-to-the-bottom-of-the-range-20240704/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD yesterday weakened
across the board following soft US Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-238k-versus-235k-estimate-20240703/) and ISM Services PMI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/ism-nonmanufacturing-pmi-for-june-488-versus-525-estimate-20240703/) reports. Overall, the data didn’t
change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view
that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year.
The CAD, on the other hand,
has been under pressure mainly due to the US Dollar strength last week which
has been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something
fundamental. This week, the US Dollar is back on the defensive as the market
continues to trade the soft-landing narrative. Last week, the Canadian CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-may-cpi-29-versus-26-expected-20240625/) surprised to the upside, with the
underlying inflation measures rising
but remaining within the 1-3% target band. This made the market to pare back rate cuts
expectations with the probabilities now standing around 57% for no change. We
will get another inflation report before the next BoC policy decision, but if
we see another jump in wage growth tomorrow, then the central bank will likely
need very good CPI figures to deliver a rate cut in July.USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD is now back at the key 1.36 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone. Again, we can expect the buyers to step
in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the
1.3785 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to pile in more aggressively and target a drop into the 1.34
handle next. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price action remains rangebound between the 1.36 support and the
1.3785 resistance. There’s not much to do here and the market participants will
likely keep on “playing the range” until we get a breakout. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward minor trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) defining the current bearish
momentum. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher and rally above
the 1.3643 level to increase the bullish bets into the 1.3785 resistance. The sellers, on the other
hand, will likely lean on the trendline to position for a downside breakout
with a defined risk above the 1.3642 level. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US NFP and the Canadian labour market
report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – Weak US data weighs on the greenback
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-weak-us-data-weighs-on-the-greenback-20240704/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD yesterday weakened
across the board following soft US
Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-238k-versus-235k-estimate-20240703/) and ISM
Services PMI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/ism-nonmanufacturing-pmi-for-june-488-versus-525-estimate-20240703/) reports. Overall, the data didn’t change much in terms of
interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view that the Fed is going
to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The EUR, on the other hand,
has been under pressure mainly due to the US Dollar strength last week which has
been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental.
This week, the US Dollar is back on the defensive as the market continues to trade
the soft-landing narrative.Moreover, the Euro has
found some support from the latest developments on the French elections front as
Politico (https://www.politico.eu/article/french-election-marine-le-pen-far-right-national-rally/)
reported that hundreds of candidates from Macron’s camp and the left-wing
alliance withdrew in an effort to keep the National Rally out ahead of the
second round of voting this weekend. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD broke out of the consolidation beneath the key 1.0727 level, and
after a brief retest, extended the rally into the 1.08 region helped by the
weak US data. The buyers will now want to
see the price breaking above the 1.0812 level to increase the bullish bets into
the 1.09 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in
around this level to position for a break below the 1.0727 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
with a better risk to reward setup. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the breakout of the recent descending
triangle (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/)-like consolidation, the retest of the 1.0727 level where we had
also the minor upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/),
and then the rally into the 1.0812 resistance. If we get a pullback from these
levels, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline again to position for
a break above the 1.0812 resistance with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline and
the 1.0727 support to increase the bearish bets into the 1.06 handle next. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an interesting support zone around the 1.0775 level where we can
find the confluence of the previous swing high, the 50% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level and another minor trendline. This is where we can expect
more aggressive buyers to step in to position for a break above the 1.0812 resistance
with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets and provide the
pullback into the next minor trendline around the 1.0750 level. The red lines
define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US NFP report where the data is expected
to show 180K jobs added in June and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged
at 4.0%.
USDCAD moves down toward low of multi-week range ahead of jobs reports on Friday
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-moves-down-toward-low-of-multi-week-lows-ahead-of-jobs-reports-on-friday-20240703/
The USDCAD has continued its move to the downside today on the back of lower rates and the weaker US data, Technically, the price moved below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart yesterday, and remained below those MAs in the early Asian session today, before moving lower on the data. The price moved also below is 100 day moving average, but has been trading above and below that level over the last few 4-hour bars. That level comes in at 1.36312. The low price today did stall against the high of the lower swing area between 1.3600 and 1.36154.Going forward, if the price is able to get below the 1.3600 level,the 200 day moving average at 1.3692, and the 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the December 2023 low at 1.3590 (and stay below those levels), it would represent a break and likely lead to further downside momentum toward the 50% midpoint of the same trading range at 1.35114.Conversely, failure to get below 1.3590 to 1.3600, and a rotation back toward the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart is more likely on the failure to take advantage of the run lower this week with a break outside the multi-week trading range.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The US dollar moves lower after weaker ISM services data
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-us-dollar-moves-lower-after-weaker-ism-services-data-20240703/
The US dollar has moved sharply lower after the weaker then expected ISM nonmanufacturing data (lowest level since the pandemic):USDJPY: The USDJPY has moved below its 100 hour moving average at 161.211, and approaches it's 200 hour moving average at 160.512. The price has not traded below its 100-hour moving average since June 13 and below its 200-hour moving average since June 12. Staying below is more bearish. Another key level would be the 160.21 level. That level corresponds with the high-priced on back to April 29 when the Bank of Japan intervened in the currency markets. That level was also near low prices from last week on June 27 and June 28.EURUSD: The EURUSD as pushed through the cluster of moving averages including the 100 and 200-day moving averages between 1.0788 and 1.0793, the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.0787. Finally, the price is also above the high of the swing area up to 1.08036 (see yellow area and moving average lines on the chart below). Staying above that cluster of technical levels tilt the bias more in favor of the buyers in the short term at least.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is moved higher and test the high of a swing area up to 1.2777 (see yellow area and read numbered circles on the chart below). In the process the price is surging away from its 100 and 200 bar moving average is on the four hour chart at 1.2689 1.2714. If the price can get above 1.2777, that would open the door for additional upside momentum.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
negative after recent gains toward parityThe 2-10 year spread is at -33.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -30.3 basis points. A week ago, the spread was at -50.6 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -17.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -13.8 basis points. A week ago the spread was at -37.3 basis points
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The tide seems to be turning
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-technical-analysis-the-tide-seems-to-be-turning-20240703/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD has been overall
rangebound in the last couple of weeks. The last week’s strength might have
been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as
the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. All else being equal, the
data should continue to support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth
without inflationary pressures, which could be a headwind for the greenback.The GBP, on the other hand,
has been under pressure since the BoE policy decision (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-525-as-expected-20240620/) but overall it’s been more of a strong
US Dollar story. This week the greenback seems to be losing ground as a new
month started. This weakness might extend further, so it will be interesting to
see how the price action evolves in the next days. GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD eventually bounced from the support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) at 1.2635. That’s where the buyers stepped in
with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into the 1.28
handle. The sellers will want to see the price breaking below the 1.2635
support to get back control and increase the bearish bets into the 1.25 handle
next.GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have formed a range between the 1.2635 support and the 1.27 resistance.
The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish
bets into the 1.28 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely
lean on the resistance to position for a drop back into the support targeting a
break below it. GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an interesting zone around the 1.2670 level where the price reacted
to several times in the past weeks. This level can act as kind of a barometer
for the sentiment with the price staying above it being more bullish and below
it being more bearish. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US ADP, the US Jobless Claims, the US ISM Services PMI and
the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow is going to be a US Holiday for Independence
Day and we will also have the UK General Election (https://www.forexlive.com/news/sterling-looks-to-uk-general-election-as-next-key-risk-event-20240703/). Finally, on Friday, we
conclude the week with the US NFP report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – The only way is up for now
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-the-only-way-is-up-for-now-20240703/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD has been overall
rangebound in the last couple of weeks. The last week’s strength might have
been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as
the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. All else being
equal, the data should continue to support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in
growth without inflationary pressures. Even if the US Dollar
weakens against the other major currencies, the JPY in this environment should
keep losing ground and the Japanese officials can’t do much to reverse the
trend unless the fundamentals change. We will likely need weak US growth data
to see some sustained Yen strength, although it might be short lived if it’s
not enough to make the market to price in more aggressive rate cuts for the
Fed.USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY continues to rally as the break of the
key 160.00 handle and the lack of intervention gave the buyers more confidence
to target new highs. If we get a pullback into
the 160.00 level, we can expect the buyers to step back in with a defined risk
below the level to target new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price falling back below the 160.00 handle to gain more conviction
and start targeting the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) around the 157.00 handle. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor trendline defining the current upward momentum. The
buyers continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while
the sellers will need to see the price breaking below the trendline to position
for a pullback into the 160.00 handle.USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see a very clean uptrend with the price bouncing on the trendline before making
new highs. All else being equal, we should keep seeing the same but if the
price were to break below the trendline, the sellers will likely take some
near-term control and provide a pullback into the 160.00 handle. The white
lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US ADP, the US Jobless Claims, the US ISM Services PMI and
the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow is going to be a US Holiday for Independence
Day. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
S&P index trades above record high closing level.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-index-trades-above-record-high-closing-level-20240702/
The S&P index extended to a new session high at 5489.60, and in the process extended above the highest closing level at 5487.02 from June 18. The high intraday level was at 5523.64 reached on June 28.Meanwhile, the NASDAQ index as now up close to 100 points at 17981.45. After closing at a record level yesterday, anything positive today would be another new record.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF extends the gains today but has swing area resistance to get through
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-extends-the-gains-today-but-has-swing-area-resistance-to-get-through-20240702/
The USDCHF has pushed higher extending modestly the gains seen from yesterday's trading. That move took the price further into the swing area that was tested yesterday between 0.90449 and 0.90565. If the buyers are to take more control going forward, they need to get and stay above that area. It would then next target the 61.8% at 0.9072. If sellers lean here - and seller have a risk focused level to lean against - a move back below the 50% would give the sellers some confidence and then have traders looking toward the 200 bar MA on 4-hour chart at 0.8998 followed by the 100 day MA at 0.8983.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD rotates lower today but stalls @100 bar MA on 4-hour chart/50% of range since April
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-rotates-lower-today-but-stalls-100-bar-ma-on-4-hour-chart50-of-range-since-april-20240702/
The USDCAD has moved lower today after breaking above resistance early in the session and failing (at 1.3743/1.37475). The subsequent fall has taken the price back down to tested 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.37145. At session lows, the price is also testing the 50% of the range since the mid April high. That level comes in at 1.37173.In the video, I talk to the price action and the key barometer at the dual technical levels. Can the buyers hold support? Or will the sellers push through and look toward other downside targets as it probes lower?
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
a loss of -143 points. Yesterday, the Dow Industrial Average rose 50.66 points or 0.13% at 39169.53.S&P futures are implying a decline of -24.34 points. Yesterday, the S&P index rose 14.61 points or 0.27% at 5475.10.Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -119.10 points. Yesterday, the NASDAQ index rose 146.70 points or 0.83% at 17879.305European stock indices are trading lower after rising across the board yesterday:German DAX, -1.27%France CAC -1.06%UK FTSE 100, -0.54%Spain's Ibex, -1.79%Italy's FTSE MIB, -1.23% (delayed 10 minutes)..Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixedJapan's Nikkei 225, +1.12%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.08%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +0.29%Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.42%Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower.2-year yield 4.747%, -2.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.758%5-year yield 4.403%, -3.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.392%10-year yield 4.443%, -3.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.414%30-year yield 4.609%, -3.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.579%Looking at the treasury yield curve the spreads are continuing to rise and are chipping away at the negative yield curve:The 2-10 year spread is at -30.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -34.4 basis points. A week ago, the spread was at -50.6 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -13.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -18.4 basis points. A week ago the spread was at -37.3 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10 year yields are mixed:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – The price is testing a key trendline
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-technical-analysis-the-price-is-testing-a-key-trendline-20240702/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD has been overall
rangebound in the last couple of weeks. The last week’s strength might have
been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as
the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. Nonetheless, all
else being equal, the data should continue to support the risk sentiment amid a
pickup in growth without inflationary pressures and that could weigh on the US Dollar eventually.The CHF, on the other hand,
weakened a lot as the SNB (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/snb-cuts-key-policy-rate-by-25-bps-to-125-from-150-previously-20240620/) cut
rates by 25 bps bringing the policy rate to 1.25%. Now, the rate cut wasn’t
really a surprise as the market was already pricing a 68% chance going into the
event. What added to the Swiss Franc weakness was the central bank lowering its
inflation forecasts.The only
thing bullish for the CHF was the line saying that the SNB “will be ready to
intervene in FX market if needed and as necessary”, but we already knew that
from the Chairman Jordan’s comments (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/more-swiss-national-bank-jordan-weak-franc-the-most-likely-source-of-higher-inflation-20240530/),
and they won’t do it unless inflation surprises to the upside or they see risks
of inflation overshooting their projections.USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF rallied strongly following the SNB decision and the price is
not near the key trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
around the 0.9050 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in
with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets
into the highs.USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor trendline now defining the current bullish momentum.
If we get a pullback from the major trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean
on the minor trendline with a defined risk below the 0.90 handle to position
for a break above the major trendline with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the minor trendline and the 0.90
handle to turn the bias more bearish and increase the bets into new lows. USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have also the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around the minor
trendline. This should technically strengthen the support zone and give the
buyers a good level where to lean on. The sellers will need the
price to fall below the 0.90 handle to invalidate the bullish setup and
increase the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US Job Openings and Fed Chair Powell speaking. Tomorrow, we
get the US ADP, the US Jobless Claims, the US ISM Services PMI and the FOMC
Meeting Minutes. On Thursday we will get the latest Swiss CPI figures and it’s
also going to be a US Holiday for Independence Day. Finally, on Friday, we
conclude the week with the US NFP report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – The key support zone held once again
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/bitcoin-technical-analysis-the-key-support-zone-held-once-again-20240702/
Fundamental
OverviewBitcoin suffered a notable
correction in June despite a generally positive risk sentiment. Last week, we
got a quick drop into a key support zone on the news (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/06/24/mt-gox-to-begin-bitcoin-bitcoin-cash-repayments-in-july/amp/) that
Mt. Gox will start distributing assets stolen from clients in a 2014 hack in
July 2024 after years of postponed deadlines. Crypto traders have been aware of
this event coming, although the timing was unknown. Now, there’s
a good argument that this event could keep a lid on Bitcoin as there’s some
fear that people could lock in some gains once they get their Bitcoins. You can
read a nice and comprehensive CNBC article here (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/01/mt-gox-about-to-unload-9-billion-of-bitcoin-what-it-means-for-btc.html)
on this topic. In the big picture though, the price might remain supported amid a positive risk sentiment as we approach the first Fed's rate cut. Bitcoin
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoin eventually bounced from the key 60000 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone and extended the rally into the 64000
level. If we get another flush lower, the buyers will step back in around the
60K level and the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/).
The sellers will need the price to break below the trendline to turn the bias more
bearish. Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke above the downward trendline that was defining the
bearish momentum into the key support. This might be another signal of a change
in the sentiment and attract more buyers. We can see that we now have
a good support around the 62400 level where we can find the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/)
of the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level and the broken trendline. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price falling below the support to position for a drop into
the 60000 support zone.Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the setup around the 62400 level. A break above the recent
high at 63800 should give the buyers more conviction to increase the bullish
bets into the 67250 level next. The red lines define the average
daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US Job Openings and Fed Chair Powell speaking. Tomorrow, we
get the US ADP, the US Jobless Claims, the US ISM Services PMI and the FOMC
Meeting Minutes. Thursday is going to be a US Holiday for Independence Day.
Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Crude oil futures and settle at $83.38
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-futures-and-settle-at-8338-20240701/
Crude oil futures are settling at $83.38. That is up $1.84 or 2.26% on the day. The gain is the largest one day gain since June 10 when the index rose 2.93% and driven by expectations of higher summer demand and concerns over potential supply shortages due to OPEC+ production cuts. Oil prices increased by 6% in June, supported by OPEC+ extending output cuts until 2025. Analysts foresee supply deficits in the third quarter as summer travel and increased air-conditioning usage reduce fuel reserves. Investors are awaiting comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the central bank's policy meeting minutes on Wednesday, and U.S. nonfarm payroll data on Friday to gauge the direction for ageless rates and the economy. Additionally, traders are monitoring the impact of hurricanes on oil and gas production, with Hurricane Beryl threatening the Caribbean's Windward Islands.Technically, after moving above the 50% retracement of the move down from the April 2024 high at $80.06 back on June 18, the price consolidated between the 61.8% at $81.84 and the 50% midpoint at $80.06 until breaking higher on Friday. That break, however, did retrace back toward the 61.8% retracement level into Friday's close (see yellow area on the chart above). Today, the trend was more to the upside extending to the highest levels since April 29.The next target comes in against the April 26 high price at $84.46. The close risk now comes against the 61.8% retracement at $81.84.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
