Kickstart the FX trading day for July 9 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-july-9-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20240709/
Fed Chair Powell will be testifying on Capitol Hill today (and tomorrow). The pre-release text of his comments were not released. HMMMM. Markets will be focused on his comments on inflation and the trend in inflation and for any clues on the potential for a initial rate cut going forward. With the uncertainty ahead, understanding the technicals that are "in play" can make or break your trading day. In this video,I take a look at those technical levels for the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. EURUSD: The EURUSD is starting the North American session making new lows (for the day) and in-the-process is testing the rising 100 hour moving average at 1.08132. The level will be the key barometer for both buyers and sellers in trade today.USDJPY: The USDJPY is higher and has inched above the near converged 100 and 200 hour MAs at 161.05-161.08. Getting and now staying above those levels shifts the bias more in favor of the buyers. Yesterday, the price low tested the April high praise at 160.208.(low reached 160.25). The inability to move below that level, gave the buyers the go-ahead to push higher. Now the 100./200 hour MAs will be eyed for a more bullish shift in the pair.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD held resistance today between 1.2816 and 1.2827. The level represents a swing area from trading going back to March (see the video). Seller's leaning against that level keeps the sellers in play/control. A swing area between 1.2754 and 1.2777, is the next downside target.US stocks are higher in premarket trading ahead of the Chair testimony which will begin at 10 AM ET. The U.S. Treasury will auction off 3-year notes at 1 PM ET. Yields are higher by about two basis points across the yield curve.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The USD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-usd-is-the-strongest-and-the-jpy-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240709/
The USD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins. Relatively speaking, however, the major currencies are scrunched together to start the new session. Today, the Fed Chair Powell will give his semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC. The recent data has been slower. As Adam points our in his post, (https://www.forexlive.com/news/how-much-more-confident-will-powell-be-on-inflation-20240708/) the key question is whether he is ready to signal "greater confidence" that inflation is trending lower. Last week at Sintra, he hinted in this direction, noting that recent data indicates improvements in wages and a significant progress in PCE data at +2.6% year-over-year. He emphasized the need to see more progress on inflation and to ensure that the current data accurately reflects underlying inflation trends. He stressed the importance of taking time to get this right, cautioning that acting too soon could undermine the progress made in controlling inflation. Nevertheless, he is also reluctant to implicitly say a September cut is coming. The Fed does not want to get caught making too many promises. There is CPI and PPI data later in the week. The US stock market continues to hum along, but it is still "the economy" and it seems to be slowing. So hearing his words and dicing and slicing them toward the conclusion that a September cut is still likely, will be the market's focus. His text release for his testimony is expected at 8:30 AM ET.In Europe today, ECB executive board member Fabio Panetta stated that the European Central Bank can gradually reduce interest rates in line with the ongoing disinflation process. He emphasized the need for readiness to respond swiftly to any economic shocks, whether upward or downward. Panetta noted that previous rate hikes will continue to suppress demand, output, and inflation for the coming months. Additionally, he expects wage growth to ease as part of this process. The overwhelming consensus is that a July change is off table (it is summer anyway in Europe and they take it easy in the summer). September is still on the table. The JPY is moving lower which means the USDJPY is moving higher again. Technically as the NA session is beginning, the USDJPY buyers are making a play to the upside by extending above its 100/200 hour MA. Both those MAs are near 161.05 (see blue and green lines on the chart below). The current price has moved above and trades at 161.09. Recall from yesterday, the low price stalled just ahead of the April high at 160.209 and the swing lows from June 27 and June 28. The low reached 160.25 before bouncing. Today the US treasury will auction off three-year notes to kick off the coupon auctions this week. That will continue tomorrow with the auction of 10-year notes and on Thursday with auction of 30 year bonds.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading down -$0.28 or -0.34% at $82.05. At this time yesterday, the price was at $82.50Gold is trading up $2.25 or 0.10% at $2360.64. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2375.41Silver is trading up $0.26 or 0.86% at $31.05. At this time on yesterday, the price is trading at $31.08Bitcoin trading steady at $57,439. At this time yesterday, the price was trading up at $57,109Ethereum is also trading little higher at $3081.80. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $3048.90In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are trading higher. The S&P and NASDAQ continue their strength of record high closing levels. The S&P has closed higher for four consecutive days. The NASDAQ index has closed higher for five consecutive days.Dow Industrial Average futures are
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – A look at the chart ahead of the RBNZ decision
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-technical-analysis-a-look-at-the-chart-ahead-of-the-rbnz-decision-20240709/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board since last Friday following the soft US NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-non-farm-payrolls-206k-vs-190k-expected-20240705/) report. The data showed some more labour
market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage
growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will
see if the market will be able to keep the positive sentiment on soft landing
hopes or start to worry about a recession. The NZD, on the other hand,
gained last week against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continued to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed but
didn’t send recessionary signals. Tomorrow, we have the RBNZ policy decision
where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and maintain
the hawkish stance. NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD bounced from a strong support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 0.6050 level last week and
extended the gains amid soft US data. Overall, we are still in a range and the
market participants keep on buying at support and selling at resistance. We
will likely need a breakout to see a more sustained trend. NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price rejected the resistance at 0.6150 and it’s now falling to
the support around the 0.61 handle. That’s where we can expect the buyers to
step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a break above the
resistance with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the
0.6050 support next. NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
defining the current bearish momentum. The sellers might continue to lean on it
to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will want to see the price
breaking higher and above the most recent lower high at 0.6129 to regain some
control and start targeting new highs. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have Fed Chair Powell testifying to Congress and the markets will be
focused on any view or hint about monetary policy after the recent NFP report. Tomorrow,
we have the RBNZ policy decision. Thursday will be the most important day of
the week as we get the US CPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI and the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – The market consolidates after the soft US NFP report
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-the-market-consolidates-after-the-soft-us-nfp-report-20240709/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board since last Friday following the soft US NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-non-farm-payrolls-206k-vs-190k-expected-20240705/) report. The data showed some more labour
market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage
growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will
see if the market will be able to keep the positive sentiment on soft landing
hopes or start to worry about a recession. The EUR, on the other hand,
gained last week against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continued to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed but
didn’t send recessionary signals. On the political front, the French
elections (https://www.forexlive.com/news/french-election-result-looks-like-a-hung-parlimanet-20240707/) ended up in a loss for Le Pen’s National Rally party but also a
hung parliament. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD eventually managed to extend the rally above the 1.08 handle
but consolidated just above it since the US NFP report. The buyers will likely step
in around these levels to keep pushing towards the 1.09 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below
the 1.08 level to regain some near-term control. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent break and consolidation just above the 1.08 handle.
We now have a nice support zone around the 1.0780 level where we can find the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/)
of the previous swing high, the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
and the 50% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level. If we get a pullback into
that support, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the
trendline to position for a continuation of the rally into the 1.09 resistance.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the
trendline to increase the bearish bets into the 1.0727 support. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the buyers will have the option to step in around the 1.0812 level or
the trendline around the 1.0780 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will
likely pile in on every break lower. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have Fed Chair Powell testifying to Congress and the markets will be
focused on any view or hint about monetary policy after the recent NFP report.
Thursday will be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and
the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with
the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Has the song remained the same for the technicals driving the GBPJPY trend move higher?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/has-the-song-remained-the-same-for-the-technicals-driving-the-gbpjpy-trend-move-higher-20240708/
On Friday, I did a video (https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-gbpjpy-is-trading-at-highest-level-since-2008-and-bounced-off-support-todaywhat-next-20240705/) on the GBPJPY outlining the trend move and what needed to happen to break the buyers' control - even by the a little. Trends are fast, directional, and tend to go further than what traders expect. As a result, it often makes sense to let the price action - and technicals applied to that price action - to dictate if the sellers are starting to "win" (even by the smallest of margins). In the video, I discussed the 100 and 200-hour moving averages. Each had done their job at holding support with the 100 hour MA being a fairly strong barometer on the most recent run higher. In this video, I look at what happened today on the correction. Did the buyers come in nearly 100 hour moving average again? What are the charts saying now? Has the song remained the same?Watch and learn....
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD sellers try to keep firm control. In this video, I explain why....
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-sellers-try-to-keep-firm-control-in-this-video-i-explain-why-20240708/
The USDCAD moved lower last week and into a key swing area between 1.3596 and 1.36154. That swing area is joined by its rising 200 day moving average currently at 1.3596 as well. The low price extended to 1.36017 before bouncing higher after the jobs reports in Canada and the US on FridayThe subsequent rise to the price back above its 100-day moving average of 1.36358, but the high price stalled ahead of its falling 100 hour moving average. That pattern has continued today with recent highs on the hourly chart stalling against that moving average (currently at 1.36405).So with the 100-day, moving average at 1.36358 and the 100-day moving average at 1.36405, that area is setting itself up as a barometer in the short term for both buyers and sellers. Staying below would be more bearish. Moving above and we are likely to see more upside probing.In this video I outline and show the technical levels in play and explain why
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading for July 8 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-for-july-8-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-and-gbpusd-20240708/
In the kickstart video, I take a look at the 3-major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. EURUSD: The EURUSD is trading near session highs as the North American session begins, and looks toward eight swing area between 1.08538 and 1.08617. The 1.08618 level also corresponds with the 50% midpoint of the range since 2023 high (on the daily chart). The ups and downs over 2024 has the 100 and 200 day moving averages converged at 1.0794. That is now a key support level for the pair today and going forward.USDJPY: The USDJPY fell in the Asian session, but found support buyers against the key 160.208 level. That level represents the high price from April 29. It also was near swing lows from June 27 and June 28. Holding support against that level today (the low price reached 160.25), gave the buyers a go-ahead to push higher. The problem on the top side is the 100 hour moving average at 1.6121 which held resistance on Friday, did the same today. So a battle is being waged between the swing area of 160.208, and the 100-day moving average at 161.208. The current price trades between those levels.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is also trading at new session highs for the day, and at the highest level since June 13. Technically, the price moved above eight swing area going back to early March between 1.2816 and 1.28272. That area is now close support. Stay above and the high price from June at 1.28599 followed by the high price from March (and for the year) at 1.28931 are the major targets.--------------------------------RIP KJ
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-gbp-is-the-strongest-and-the-jpy-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240708/
As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USDJPY moved down to test a key swing level (and found buyers). The US stocks - after closing at records in the S&P and the Nasdaq - are little changed. European markets are higher. Yields in the US are higher (little changed in the EU). This week US CPI and PPI data will be released (on Thursday and Friday). Fed Chair Powell will speak on Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday. The U.S. Treasury will auction off 3, 10, and 30-year coupon issues to test the debt market demand on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday (we know there will be supply).In New Zealand, the RBNZ will announce its rate decision this week. Some brief comments via Westpac on what to expect:we are not anticipating any change in the OCR – which will remain at 5.5% – or the guidance that “…monetary policy needs to remain restrictive to ensure inflation returns to target within a reasonable timeframe”.The overall tone of the RBNZ’s communication is likely to be similar to that seen in May, when the Bank pushed out the timing of its first policy easing to August next year.The RBNZ will emphasise the upside risks to inflation emanating from the less contractionary than expected Budget 2024. But they will balance this with some dovish messages around potential downside risks to growth as the economy continues to stall and the labour market eases.In the UK today, BOE's Jonathan Haskel (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-haskel-says-would-rather-hold-rates-until-there-is-more-certainty-on-inflation-20240708/)said that he prefers to hold interest rates until there is more certainty that inflation pressures have sustainably subsided. He is closely monitoring labor market conditions and inflation indicators, such as services inflation. Recent wage data suggests a rise in the "underlying" unemployment rate, and he notes that considerable second-round effects are currently at play but are expected to fade over the coming years.ECBs Knot reiterated the general feeling that there is no reason to cut rates in July, but they are comfortable with the progress in disinflation (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-knot-there-is-no-reason-to-cut-rates-in-july-20240708/)A little technicals to start the trading week....the USDJPY moved down to test the lows from June 27 and June 28 which was also near the high from April 29 at 160.209. Holding that level is key for the buyers. The rebound has moved up to 161.11 and back above the 200 hour MA at 161.03, but below the 100 hour MA at 161.227. The battle is on to start the trading week for the USDJPY pair. In politics over the weekend:The leftwing New Popular Front has become the dominant force in France’s National Assembly with the most powerful faction being the far-left France Unbowed. They in total won 182 seats in the parliamentary election. In comparison, Macron's centrist alliance secured 168 seats. The far-right National Rally (RN) and allies took 143 seats. With no party achieved a majority in France's parliamentary elections, it leads to a fragmented assembly. Morevover, President Emmanuel Macron's pro-business bloc, which came second, cannot form a government with France Unbowed. The far-right National Rally, which came third, also will not form a government with Macron's party or the left. While opposition to the far right remains strong, political fragmentation is increasing. Stalemate. In the US, the bell continues to toll for Pres. Biden to step down. However, he remains committed to running. Former Pres. Trump can sit back and smile as the Dems do the work for him for now.UK went right last week after ousting the Tories after a 14-year run.The pattern is to oust whos in. No one is happy.A
USDCAD Technical Analysis – The price bounced from the bottom of the range
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-technical-analysis-the-price-bounced-from-the-bottom-of-the-range-20240708/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board last Friday following the soft US
NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-non-farm-payrolls-206k-vs-190k-expected-20240705/) report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an
increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically
have an economy that is slowing but growing. We will see if the market will be
able to keep the positive sentiment on soft landing hopes or start to worry
about a recession. All eyes will now be on the US CPI and US Jobless Claims figures on Thursday. The CAD, on the other hand,
gained last week against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment as
the US data continued to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed but didn’t
send recessionary signals. For the CAD, the next big event will be the CPI
report on July 16th. We saw another jump in wage growth in the
latest labour
market (https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-june-employment-change-by-14k-versus-225k-estimate-20240705/) report, so the BoC will likely need good CPI figures to deliver a
rate cut in July.USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD has recently dropped back to the bottom of the range at the key
1.36 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
zone where the price bounced off of last Friday. The buyers will likely keep
on stepping in around these levels to position for a rally back into the 1.3785
resistance with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the
new lows with the 1.35 handle as the first target. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price action remains rangebound between the 1.36 support and the
1.3785 resistance. There’s not much to do here and the market participants will
likely keep on “playing the range” until we get a breakout. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke out of the recent downward minor trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) that was defining the bearish
momentum before bouncing from the support. This could be a signal of a change
in momentum. The buyers will want to see
the price breaking above the most recent lower high at 1.3643 to increase the
bullish bets into the 1.3785 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsThis week (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is a bit bare on the data front but nonetheless we will have some key
economic releases. Tomorrow, we have Fed Chair Powell testifying to Congress
and the markets will be focused on any view or hint about the monetary policy
trajectory after the recent NFP report. Thursday will be the most important day
of the week as we get the US CPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI and the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF sellers push the price to the low for the week. Price back below the 100 day MA.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-sellers-push-the-price-to-the-low-for-the-week-price-back-below-the-100-day-ma-20240705/
The USDCHF is trading to new lows for the week today after rallying into resistance at the start of the trading week (on Monday). That upside resistance came within a swing area between 0.9044 and 0.90565. The subsequent move to the downside did try to find support against its 100-day moving average midweek, but ultimately broke below that level after some volatility immediately after the US jobs report today.The last few hours have seen the sellers reenter the market against resistance by the 200-bar moving average on a 4-hour chart and the 100 day moving average. Both are near 0.8989. The price has traded to a load today of 0.89568. That is also the low for the week.On the downside, the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart cuts across at 0.8950. That represents the next target to get to and through if the sellers are to take more control. The 50% of the move up from the June low at 0.89383 also be targeted. Break below that level and traders will look toward the 200-day moving average at 0.88927.In the video I outline the price action this week, the price action in relation to the technical levels, and outline what needs to be done to increase the bearish bias. Conversely, what would shift the bias back to the upside.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD runs higher & is breaking out in the process. Can buyers keep the momentum going?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-runs-higher-is-breaking-out-in-the-process-can-buyers-keep-the-momentum-going-20240705/
The AUDUSD has been trading mostly between 0.6573 and 0.67134 going back to early May. This week, the price rope to the upside reaching the highest level since early January. Today, the price corrected lower upheld sport against the old highs near 0.6708/0.6713. The price broke higher. The price corrected down to retest the break point. The price rotated higher. That is bullish.Going forward, staying above 0.6708 keeps the buyers in firm control (close risk and bias defining level). However, If the price falls back below that level, there is likely to be disappointment in the failed break higher. Look for a rotation back down (it is the risk for buyers now) The next target comes in at 0.67604. Get above that level and it opens door for traders to target the end of 2023/early 2024 highs near 0.6871.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The GBPJPY is trading at highest level since 2008 and bounced off support today.What next?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-gbpjpy-is-trading-at-highest-level-since-2008-and-bounced-off-support-todaywhat-next-20240705/
When the market trends, traders are better served to understand when the market shifts the trend, versus trying to pick a top or bottom depending on which way the market is trending.For the GBPJPY, it has been trending over the last seven or so months. The price has also been above (and comfortably) its 100-day moving average since January. Yes .... the market is overbought but trends are fast, directional, and tend to go farther than what traders expect. Anyone who has sold the GBPJPY in 2024 have not done very well. So for traders looking for a top, it is not wise to try to pick a top, but to figure out where the bias turns from more bullish to bearish in the shorter-term.In this video, I take a look at the hourly chart specifically. Going back to mid June, the price has been trending higher and in doing so, reacting to both the 100 and 200 hour moving averages. Today, the low prices bounced off of the 100-day moving average on three separate occasions (see blue line on the chart below).Needless to say, it would take a move below the 100-day moving average – and staying below – to increase the bearish bias going forward. Absent that and the trend is your friend. The buyers are winning. The sellers are not. Be aware. Be prepared. This video prepares both the buyers and sellers to what would turn the bullish tide in the GBPJPY to its a the bearish tide - even if it is in the short term. When trading trends, you can try and pick a top and another top, and another top (and fail as the market trends), or you can let the price action and the technicals TELL you when the bias shifts and the trend slows and is due to probe lower. The GBPJPY is painting the technical picture clearly.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
time Wednesday, the yield was at 4.772%5-year yield 4.297%, -1.3 basis points.. At this time Wednesday, the yield was at 4.412%10-year yield 4.335%, -1.2 basis points. At this time Wednesday, the yield was at 4.437%30-year yield 4.509%, -1.1 basis points. At this time Wednesday, the yield was at 4.595%Looking at the treasury yield curve the spreads became more negative after recent gains toward parityThe 2-10 year spread is at -35.0 basis points. At this time Wednesday, the spread was at -33.7 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at -17.7 basis points. At this time Wednesday, the spread was at -17.9 basis points.In the US debt market, yields are lower in the benchmark 10 year note sector:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis – All eyes on the US NFP report
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-500-technical-analysis-all-eyes-on-the-us-nfp-report-20240705/
Fundamental
OverviewAfter a couple of weeks of
consolidation, the S&P 500 this week found some footing and eventually
extended the rally into a new all-time high following the soft US Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-238k-versus-235k-estimate-20240703/) and ISM Services PMI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/ism-nonmanufacturing-pmi-for-june-488-versus-525-estimate-20240703/) reports. Overall, the data didn’t
change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view
that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year.
The soft-landing narrative is still the main driver of the market, and the data
is indeed backing it for now with ongoing disinflation and resilient economy as
we head into the easing cycle. S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that after two weeks of consolidation, the S&P 500 reached a new all-time
high following some soft US data. From a risk management perspective, the
buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/). At the moment though, it’s hard to
envision such a big pullback unless we get some ugly US data. S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action of the last couple of weeks with
the recent breakout. This is where the buyers are stepping in with a defined
risk below the resistance
now turned support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-polarity-20220408/) to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price falling back inside the range to
position for a drop into the 5500 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/).
S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a bit of consolidation now around the 5587 level as the market
awaits the US NFP report. If we get bad data, the market might go into risk-off
and we will likely see the sellers piling in aggressively for a selloff into
the 5500 support. The buyers will want to see
a good or benign report which could even lead to a dip-buying opportunity on a possible
pullback into the 5560 zone. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US NFP report where the data is expected
to show 190K jobs added in June and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged
at 4.0%.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
implying a gain of 25.81 points. Yesterday, the Dow Industrial Average fell -31.08 points or -0.08% at 39344.80S&P futures are implying a gain of 11.40 points. Yesterday, the S&P index rose 5.66 points or 0.10% at 5572.86 (a new record close).Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 64 points. Yesterday, the index rose 50.98 points or 0.28% at 18403.74 (a new record)European stock indices are trading lower as the market continues to digest political changes:German DAX, -0.55%France CAC -0.87%UK FTSE 100, -0.27%Spain's Ibex, -0.82%Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.08% (delayed 10 minutes).Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly higherJapan's Nikkei 225, +1.96%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +1.26%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, unchangedAustralia S&P/ASX index, +0.86%Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher2-year yield 4.641%, +2.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.636%5-year yield 4.255%, +3.0 basis points.. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.258%10-year yield 4.295%, +2.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.309%30-year yield 4.478%, +2.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.504%Looking at the treasury yield curve the spreads became more negative from yesterday's levels at this time:The 2-10 year spread is at -34.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -32.7 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at -16.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -13.6 basis points.In the European debt market, yields are higher in the benchmark 10 year note sector:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – The price fell below key supports
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/bitcoin-technical-analysis-the-price-fell-below-key-supports-20240709/
Fundamental
OverviewBitcoin has been under
heavy selling pressure for the entire month of June as a couple of bearish
drivers continued to weigh on the market. First, we had the fears around the Bitcoin
repayments to old Mt. Gox clients with expectations that they would sell their Bitcoins or at least part of it. More recently, CNBC
reported (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/08/germany-owns-2-billion-in-bitcoin-btc-its-freaking-out-investors.html) that “Germany’s government has been selling hundreds of millions
of dollars worth of seized bitcoins” and it still holds roughly 32,488 bitcoins
which are worth 1.9$ billion dollars. Bitcoin
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoin eventually dropped below the key 60K support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
zone and the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
around the 58K level. This might weigh on the sentiment and it gives the
sellers a bit more control. The price is now
consolidating right beneath the key levels with the sellers piling in with a
defined risk above the 60K level to position for a drop into new lows. The
buyers will want to see the price rising back above the 60K level to regain
some confidence and start targeting new highs. Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price retested the major upward trendline recently but failed to
make a new low as the market went into consolidation. We can see that from a
risk management perspective, the sellers have a nice risk to reward setup
around the downward trendline and the 60K resistance. That’s the zone the
buyers will need to break to turn the sentiment around and increase the bullish
bets into new highs. Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that there’s not much to do here as the price action remains rangebound.
The sellers will want to lean on the resistance, while the buyers will want to
see a breakout to the upside. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have Fed Chair Powell testifying to Congress and the markets will be
focused on any view or hint about monetary policy after the recent NFP report.
Thursday will be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and
the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with
the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – The soft US NFP report weighed on the sentiment
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-technical-analysis-the-soft-us-nfp-report-weighed-on-the-sentiment-20240709/
Fundamental
OverviewCrude oil has been on an
incredible run since bottoming out around the $72.50 level in early June. The
market eventually caught up to the positive drivers we had back then with the OPEC+'s
extension of voluntary output cuts, and the pickup in economic activity seen
from the global PMIs. The prospects of
major central banks easing their policies was also a contributor for the
positive future demand outlook. More recently, the price got
rejected from a key resistance level and eventually extended the drop following
a soft US
NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-non-farm-payrolls-206k-vs-190k-expected-20240705/) report. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing.
We will see if the market will be able to keep the positive sentiment on soft
landing hopes or start to worry about a recession. Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil got rejected from the 84.50 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
and extended the drop following the soft US NFP report. From a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 80
support zone. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking below the 80 support to increase the bearish bets into the 77 level
next. Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price recently dropped below the minor trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) that was defining the bullish
momentum. This technically signals a switch in momentum with the sellers in a
near-term control. We can also see that we have the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level of the entire rally from the lows standing around the key
support. That’s been a key level for the market. Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more closely the recent price action. We have a nice resistance around the 82.70
level where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the drop
from the 84.50 level. From a risk management
perspective, that’s where the sellers will likely step in with a defined risk above
the resistance and position for a drop into the key 80 support with a better
risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking higher to regain some control and start targeting a break above the
84.50 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have Fed Chair Powell testifying to Congress and the markets will be
focused on any view or hint about monetary policy after the recent NFP report.
Thursday will be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and
the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with
the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – The soft US data weighed on the greenback
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-technical-analysis-the-soft-us-data-weighed-on-the-greenback-20240709/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board since last Friday following the soft US NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-non-farm-payrolls-206k-vs-190k-expected-20240705/) report. The data showed some more labour
market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage
growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will
see if the market will be able to keep the positive sentiment on soft landing
hopes or start to worry about a recession. The CHF, on the other hand,
weakened a lot as the SNB (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/snb-cuts-key-policy-rate-by-25-bps-to-125-from-150-previously-20240620/) cut rates by 25 bps at the last
meeting bringing the policy rate to 1.25% and revising its inflation forecasts
lower. The only thing bullish for the Swiss Franc was the line saying that the
SNB “will be ready to intervene in FX market if needed and as necessary”, but
we already knew that from the Chairman Jordan’s comments (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/more-swiss-national-bank-jordan-weak-franc-the-most-likely-source-of-higher-inflation-20240530/), and they won’t do it unless
inflation surprises to the upside or they see risks of inflation overshooting
their projections.The recent Swiss
CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/switzerland-june-cpi-13-vs-14-yy-expected-20240704/) report missed expectations once again, so there’s no need for the
central bank to worry about inflation. The probabilities for another rate cut
in September are currently at 50%. USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF got rejected from the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
and eventually fell below the 0.90 handle as the US data came in on the softer side.
This switched the near-term bias to the downside. The buyers will want to see
the price breaking above the trendline to regain control and increase the
bullish bets into the 0.9150 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will
likely step in around the 0.90 handle and the trendline to keep pushing towards
the 0.8885 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/).
USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance around the 0.90 handle where we can find
the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/)
of the recent swing low and the 50% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level. This is where we can expect
the sellers to pile in with a defined risk above the level to position for a
drop into the 0.8885 level next. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking higher to regain some control and target a breakout of
the trendline. USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum.
The buyers will likely keep on leaning on the trendline to push into new highs,
while the sellers will want to see a breakout to the downside to start piling
in. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have Fed Chair Powell testifying to Congress and the markets will be
focused on any view or hint about monetary policy after the recent NFP report.
Thursday will be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and
the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with
NZDUSD reaches target resistance and backs off to 200 bar MA on 4-hour chart
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-reaches-target-resistance-and-backs-off-to-200-bar-ma-on-4-hour-chart-20240708/
The NZDUSD rallied toward the end of last week's trading, after sellers had their shot on the break of both the 100/200 day MAs earlier in the week. The move higher initially extended to the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, before correcting lower midweek. On Friday, buyers returned after the US jobs report and extended above the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Today, the price extended to the highest level since June 14th and in the process moved into a swing area target between 0.6151 to 0.6159. Sellers leaned in the Asian session and rotated lower. The low price has reached back to the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour at 0.61278. So resistance at the topside swing area stalled the rally. The 200 bear MA on the 4-hour chart is stalling the fall. Those levels (up to 0.6159 and down to 0.6127) are the close break points going forward.Hear all about it, in the above video.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD moves to next target level & finds sellers. Modest selling pushes to close support
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-moves-to-next-target-level-finds-sellers-modest-selling-pushes-to-close-support-20240708/
The AUDUSD has been trading up and down today after last week's move higher. The run higher today extended up to a new high going back to January. That high stalled right near the January 4 swing high before its rotation lower (at that time). The subsequent fall from the January 4 high, took 3/4 months, and culminated at the low for the year at 0.63617. Since bottoming in mid April, the price has been building higher and higher, with today's high stalling rate at the high price from early January at 0.67604. That lap down and up has been completed.The correction lower moved the price between a swing area and 0.67278 to 0.6738. That swing areas (see red numbered circles on the chart below ) is close support to start the new trading week. A move below that level would have traders targeting 0.6708-13 level which if broken, would likely lead to even more downside probing.So sellers came in where they were expected to come in today. The overriding question is "Is it just a temporary pause? or "is the selling something more substantial?".Get below 0.67278 and then 0.67087-13 would give the sellers more confidence.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF trades above and below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-trades-above-and-below-the-100-bar-ma-on-the-4-hour-chart-20240708/
The USDCHF moved lower last week after testing a swing area and a key downward-sloping trend line successfully. The price decline ultimately took the price back below its 100-day moving average. That moving average now joins with the 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart as topside resistance near 0.8988 (see blue and green line on the chart below)..The move to the downside extended to the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart on Friday, but found buyers near the level into the close. Below that level is the 50% midpoint of the move up from the June low to the high reached last week. That level comes in at 0.8938. In between the 100 a moving average above in the 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart below is the 38.2% retracement at 0.89644. That level is trying to hold resistance today.Sellers started take more control below the 100-day moving average last week. Now with some support targets holding, there is a pause in the run lower. In this video, I outline the levels that traders should eye for technically motivated clues. Be aware. Be prepared.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading down $0.66 or -0.81% at $82.50. At this time Friday, the price was at $83.92Gold is trading up down $16.03 or -0.67% at $2375.41. At this time Friday, the price was trading at $2366.30Silver is trading trade and $0.13 or -0.40% at $31.08. At this time on Friday, the price is trading at $30.64Bitcoin trading higher at $57,109. At this time Friday, the price was trading up at $55,325Ethereum is also trading higher at $3048.90 at this time Friday, the price was trading at $2940.30In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are trading little changed in the premarket futures market. The S&P and NASDAQ indices closed at record levels on Friday. The NASDAQ index closed at a record level each of the four trading days last week (Thursday was a holiday).Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 18 points. On Friday, the Dow Industrial Average rose 67.87 points or 0.17% at 39375.88S&P futures are implying a gain 0.31 points. On Friday, the S&P index rose 30.19 points or 0.55% at 5567.20 (a new record)Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 6.03 points. On Friday, the index rose 164.46 points or 0.90% at 18352.76 (a new record)European stock indices are trading higher:German DAX, +0.33%France CAC +0.15%UK FTSE 100, +0.21%Spain's Ibex, +0.53%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.65% (delayed 10 minutes)..Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were lowerJapan's Nikkei 225, -0.32%China's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.93%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -1.55%Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.76%Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher2-year yield 4.636%, +3.8 basis points. At this time Wednesday, the yield was at 4.685%5-year yield 4.258%, +4.1 basis points.. At this time Wednesday, the yield was at 4.297%10-year yield 4.309%, +3.7 basis points. At this time Wednesday, the yield was at 4.335%30-year yield 4.504%, +3.5 basis points. At this time Wednesday, the yield was at 4.509%Looking at the treasury yield curve the spreads became less negative from Friday's levels at this time:The 2-10 year spread is at -32.7 basis points. At this time Wednesday, the spread was at -35.0 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at -13.6 basis points. At this time Wednesday, the spread was at -17.7 basis points.In the European debt market, yields are mixed in the benchmark 10 year note sector:4o
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
I am shorting oil here near 84-85 USD, see the plan
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/i-am-shorting-oil-here-near-84-85-usd-see-the-plan-20240708/
Light crude oil futures technical analysis and trade idea, for short👋 Hello traders and investors! This is Itai Levitan from ForexLive.com, bringing you the latest technical analysis and trade ideas for Light Crude Oil Futures. Let's dive into the current market setup and discuss potential strategies for your consideration.Oil futures trend analysis 📈We are observing an interesting pattern with Light Crude Oil. Recently, oil pierced a significant trend line, attempting a breakout but ultimately failing. This breakout attempt was aligned with the first upper standard deviation of the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) anchored from the beginning of 2023. Given this failed breakout, it appears that the bears might have an upper hand at the moment.Market response at 84 USD TO 85 USD 📉Following the failed breakout, we have seen an initial decline of over 1%. This movement is critical as it sets the stage for a potential entry point.Trade idea - short oil 🎯Entry pointEntry: $82.40This entry point is very close to the current market price and provides a strategic position based on the recent technical behavior.Stop lossPrimary stop: $84.00Tighter stop option, see video above: $83.70The primary stop is set just above the $84.00 level to protect against further upward movements. Traders preferring a tighter stop can opt for $83.70, which is still above the upper standard deviation but offers a more favorable risk-reward ratio.Take profit targetsFirst target: $80.26Second target: $78.16Third target: $76.80Fourth target: $72.85These targets are strategically placed. The first target allows for partial profit-taking, reducing risk exposure as the trade progresses. Subsequent targets provide opportunities to capture additional profits as the market moves in our favor.Risk-reward analysisRisk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 4.5:1By averaging out the take profit targets, we achieve a balanced and favorable risk-reward ratio. This setup allows for substantial profit potential while managing risk effectively.Trade tips 📝Monitor lower time frames if you still want to enter but saw this late: It's essential to keep an eye on lower time frames to refine your entry point and ensure optimal timing.Partial profits: Taking partial profits at different targets is a professional approach to secure gains and manage risk.Adjust stop loss: After reaching the first profit target, consider moving your stop loss to the entry point to protect your position and minimize potential losses.Remember, this analysis and trade idea is an orientation for you to consider. Always trade at your own risk and perform due diligence before entering any positions. Stay tuned to ForexLive.com (https://www.forexlive.com/) for additional insights and perspectives. Happy trading!Thank you for reading, and good luck! 🍀
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis – The NFP report increased the bullish sentiment
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-the-nfp-report-increased-the-bullish-sentiment-20240708/
Fundamental
OverviewLast Friday, gold spiked to the upside following the US
NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-non-farm-payrolls-206k-vs-190k-expected-20240705/) report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an
increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. That made the
real yields to drop and gold to accelerate to the upside. This has been the
case for a couple of years now where a rise in real yields sees a much smaller
fall in gold compared to a fall in real yields which triggers a bigger rally in
gold. As of now, it looks like gold have limited downside but lots of upside as
inflation abates slowly while risks to the growth picture increase the longer
the Fed keeps policy restrictive. In the short-term, strong US data might weigh
a bit on the market, but in the long-term weak data is likely to trigger bigger
upside moves.Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold has been on a steady rise since bottoming out near the key 2277 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) as the buyers piled in around the bottom of
the range and are now looking towards the cycle high around the 2430 level. If
the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in around the top of
the range to position for a drop back into the 2277 support targeting a break
below it. Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price rallied into the 2387 resistance following the soft US NFP
report and started to pull back. We now have a good support zone around the
2368 level where we can also find the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/)
of the previous swing high, the minor trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
and the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level. This is where we can expect
the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a
break above the 2387 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking below the trendline to increase the bearish bets into
the 2277 support.Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action and the bullish setup around the 2368
level. We can also notice that we have the lower limit of the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today right around the support,
so that should give the buyers a bit more confidence to pile in around the 2370
level looking for a continuation of the uptrend. Upcoming
CatalystsThis week (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is a bit bare on the data front but nonetheless we will have some key
economic releases. Tomorrow, we have Fed Chair Powell testifying to Congress
and the markets will be focused on any view or hint about the monetary policy
trajectory after the recent NFP report. Thursday will be the most important day
of the week as we get the US CPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI and the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
NZDUSD trading near session highs for the week. Bias more in favor of buyers.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-trading-near-session-highs-for-the-week-bias-more-in-favor-of-buyers-20240705/
As the trading week works toward a close, the NZDUSD is trading near highs for the week. Technically the move to the upside has also breached the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.61116 and the 200 bar moving average on the same chart at 0.61267. The high price today reached 0.6139.As we head toward the close - and into the new trading week - staying above the 200-bar moving average and the 100-bar moving average would be more bullish. Conversely, a rotation back below those levels, would likely disappoint the buyers on the break higher. Earlier this week, the sellers did have firm control when they pushed back below both the 100 and 200 day moving averages near 0.60670. The inability to stay below those moving averages, gave the buyers the go-ahead to reverse and indeed they did. Now it the buyers' turn to not disappoint. Stay above the 100/200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the upside door is wide open.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD bounces higher after testing key technical support. Can the buyers keep pushing?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-bounces-higher-after-testing-key-technical-support-can-the-buyers-keep-pushing-20240705/
The USDCAD traded to the lowest level since June 3 earlier today, and in doing so tested the lower basement area down to 1.35972. The 200-day moving years was just below that level at 1.35953. The low price today reached 1.3601 as buyers /profit takers leaned against the swing area.The combination of the US and Canadian jobs data) higher, and in doing so away from the aforementioned swing area. The price also moved above its 100-day moving average of 1.3634. The high price reached 1.36523. The buyers are making a play. The question is can they keep the momentum going?Close support is the 100-day moving average. More conservative support would be against the swing area between 1.3597 and 1.36154.What the price action also did was solidify the swing area below. With the 200 day MA moving closer to the low of that swing area, it increases the areas importance as well. Those nuggets are important tells for both buyers and sellers going forward.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for July 5 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-july-5-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20240705/
In the kickstart FX video from July 5, 2024, I take a technical look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. Today the US jobs report was mixed with the June non-farm payroll jobs higher than expectations but revisions to the prior two months of offsetting those gains. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.1% from 4.0%. Average earnings came in as expected.Also not so good is government jobs were a big contributing factor to the better data this month (+70K). Private education and health services added another 82K. In total, the 152K represented 74% of the gains for the month. Looking at the private sector, jobs rose by 136K which is much less than the 190K estimate. That is a problem especially in a public sector which is running huge deficits in the face of what has been a stronger economy.What is the price action saying?In this video, I take an updated look at the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What is the price action as it relates to the technical levels. What are the key barometers (where the bias shifts from more bullish to more bearish and vice versa).
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The JPY is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-jpy-is-the-strongest-and-the-usd-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240705/
As traders in the US return from the Independence Day holiday reluctantly, they will need to face the US and Canada jobs reports (locked and loaded). The expectations are for US non-farm payroll to come in at 191K vs 272K, the employment rate to stay at 4.0% (unchanged from last week), and average hourly earnings of 0.3% vs 0.4%. In Canada the employment change is expected at 27.3K vs 26.7K last month. The Unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.3% from 6.2%. Locked and loaded. In the UK yesterday, voters went to the poll and punished the Conservatives. Labours Keir Starmer will be the next Prime Minister of the UK as the Labour Party won a decisive majority, securing 410 of the 650 seats in parliament. The thumping marks a significant defeat for the Conservative Party, led by Rishi Sunak, which is set to win only 131 seats, the worst electoral performance in its history. The election ended 14 years of Conservative-led government and saw notable Conservative figures, including former Prime Minister Liz Truss, pro-Brexit lawmaker Jacob Rees-Mogg, and former leadership contender Penny Mordaunt, lose their seats. Sunak and his finance minister Jeremy Hunt retained their seats.As far as central bank policy, (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/election-result-gives-green-light-to-august-boe-rate-cut-gbp-to-drift-lower-20240704/) the BOE is odds-on favorite to cut rates at the August meeting (60%). We will see how comments from BOE officials come out over the next week or so. The UK shifts from conservative to liberal. Today, the political life of Pres. Biden is on the line as he conducts an interview with ABC News George Stephanopolis after his disastrous performance at last week's debate. The US is trending from more liberal to conservative as voters lean toward change. From the Fed today, New York Fed President John Williams stated that the Federal Reserve still has a way to go to reach its 2% inflation target and emphasized ongoing commitment amidst uncertainty in the monetary policy landscape.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading up five cents at $83.92. At this time Wednesday, the price was at $80.85Gold is trading up $9.90 or 0.42% at $2366.30. At this time Wednesday, the price was trading at $2345.66Silver is trading trade up $0.25 or 0.87% at $30.64. At this time on Wednesday, the price is trading at $30.20Bitcoin continued to move lower and trades at $55,325. At this time yesterday, the price was trading up at $57,672Ethereum is also trading at $2940.30. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $3130In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are trading little changed in premarket trading after gains yesterday at the S&P and NASDAQ index to new record high closesDow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -33.10 points. On Wednesday, the Dow Industrial Average fell -23.85 points or -0.06% at 39308.01S&P futures are implying a gain 1.0 points. On Wednesday, the S&P index rose 27.99 points or 0.51% at 5537.01. That was a new record high close..Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 9.62 points. On Wednesday, the index rose 159.54 points or 0.88% at 18188.30. That was a new record close as well.European stock indices are trading higher:German DAX, +0.79%France CAC was 0.29%UK FTSE 100, +0.02% after the election and political shiftSpain's Ibex, -0.40%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.31% (delayed 10 minutes)..Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixedJapan's Nikkei 225, unchangedChina's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.26%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -1.27%Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.12%Looking at the US debt market, yields are mixed with the shorter end higher and the longer end lower.2-year yield 4.685%, -0.6 basis points. At this
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – We are approaching a key resistance
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-technical-analysis-we-are-approaching-a-key-resistance-20240705/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board following soft US Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-238k-versus-235k-estimate-20240703/) and ISM Services PMI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/ism-nonmanufacturing-pmi-for-june-488-versus-525-estimate-20240703/) reports. Overall, the data didn’t
change much in terms of interest rates expectations, but it reinforced the view
that the Fed is going to deliver at least two rate cuts by the end of the year.
The GBP, on the other hand,
has been under pressure mainly due to the US Dollar strength last week which
has been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something
fundamental. This week, the US Dollar is back on the defensive as the market
continues to trade the soft-landing narrative. Moreover, we had the UK elections yesterday and as widely expected, the Labour party (https://www.forexlive.com/news/labour-party-wins-uk-general-election-beating-326-seat-majority-threshold-in-the-commons-20240705/) achieved a landslide victory. This outcome was already priced in and it didn't impact the Pound that much. GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD eventually bounced from the support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) at 1.2635 and extended the rally following
soft US data on Wednesday. The price is now getting close to the key 1.28
resistance. That’s where we can expect
the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop
back into the 1.2634 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.29 handle
next. GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we got a pullback recently into the 1.2740 level where the buyers piled
in to extend the rally into the 1.28 resistance. Today, a lot will depend on
the US NFP report. If we get bad data, the
market might go into risk-off and we will likely see the sellers piling in
aggressively at every break lower. The buyers will want to see a good or benign
report which could lead to a dip-buying opportunity on a pullback into the
1.2740 level.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price is now trading right in the middle of the two key levels, so
from a risk management perspective, there’s not much to do here. The red lines
define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US NFP report where the data is expected
to show 190K jobs added in June and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged
at 4.0%.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
