NZDUSD Technical Analysis – The RBNZ weighed on the Kiwi
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-technical-analysis-the-rbnz-weighed-on-the-kiwi-20240715/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board last week following another soft US CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-cpi-30-vs-31-yy-expected-20240711/) report and benign Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claim-222k-vs-236k-estimate-20240711/) figures. The market not only fully
priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of
a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a
goldilocks data release with an economy that is slowing but still growing. This
should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk
sentiment. The NZD, on the other hand,
keeps on being supported against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on
sentiment as the US data continues to support at least two rate cuts from the
Fed without sending recessionary signals. On the monetary policy
front, the RBNZ policy decision (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rbnz-leaves-it-cash-rate-on-hold-at-55-as-expected-20240710/) weighed on the Kiwi last week as
the central bank changed slightly its language to a more dovish leaning which
increased the odds of a rate cut at the next meeting as the market is now
assigning a 53% probability for such a move. NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD couldn’t extend the gains following the bounce on the strong support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 0.6050 level last week as the
surprisingly dovish RBNZ decision weighed on the Kiwi. If the price falls back
to the support zone, we can expect the buyers to step in again, while the
sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
into new lows. NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a range now between the 0.6150 resistance and the 0.6050
support. There’s not much to do here and the market participants will likely
keep on “playing the range” until we get a breakout on either side. NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see the recent catalysts that eventually led to a rangebound price action. This
week we don’t have much on the calendar but the New Zealand Q2 CPI report on
Wednesday will be something to watch as a soft report might increase the odds
of an August rate cut. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have Fed Chair Powell speaking at the Economic Club of Washington,
D.C. Tomorrow, we get the US Retail Sales report. On Wednesday, we have the New
Zealand Q2 CPI and Fed’s Waller speaking. On Thursday, we conclude with the
latest US Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – The bias switched back to bullish
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/bitcoin-technical-analysis-the-bias-switched-back-to-bullish-20240715/
Fundamental
OverviewBitcoin rallied strongly
over the weekend after a failed
attempt (https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/bitcoin-higher-alongside-the-prospects-of-a-second-trump-presidency-20240714/) to assassinate the former US President Trump. The market reacted
positively to the event because he’s been a supporter of the crypto industry
and Trump’s odds of winning the election soared.Moreover, we got the news
that the German government finally offloaded all of its Bitcoin holdings on
July 12th, so that bearish driver is now in the rear-view mirror. Also, the old
crypto exchange Mt. Gox has been repaying its old clients since last week, so even
this news should now be priced in.So, we are left with lots
of bullish drivers and very few bearish cases. On the macro level, the data
last week showed that the US disinflationary trend is intact and that the
labour market remains resilient. So, all else being equal, we are getting rate
cuts into resilient growth which should ultimately be bullish for Bitcoin. Bitcoin
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoin eventually managed to rally back above the key 60K zone leaving
behind a fakeout. This is generally a reversal signal, so the buyers might have
a bit more confidence now to start targeting a new cycle high. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price falling back below the 60K zone and the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
to regain control and increase the bearish bets into new lows. Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we got some breakouts over the weekend as the price broke through the
downward trendline and the 60K zone before extending the rally into the 63K
level as the bullish momentum increased. From a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the
60K support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
where they will also find the upward trendline for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/).
The sellers, on the other hand, might step in around the 63-64K area to
position for a drop back into the 60K support and look for a breakout to the
downside to increase the bearish bets into new lows. Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor trendline defining the current bullish momentum.
That could be another support for the buyers as it’s all about getting an entry
now that the market switched to a bullish bias. If the price were to fall below
the 58K level, the bullish bias would be invalidated. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have Fed Chair Powell speaking at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.
Tomorrow, we get the US Retail Sales report. On Wednesday, we have Fed’s Waller
speaking and on Thursday we conclude with the latest US Jobless Claims figures.
See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD extends to swing area/high from June
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-extends-to-swing-areahigh-from-june-20240712/
The EURUSD, like the GBPUSD (https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-stretches-toward-the-swing-high-from-july-2023-and-the-natural-resistance-at-13000-20240712/), has stretched to new highs as European traders look toward the exits for the week. The move higher takes the price toward the high from June 2024 at 1.0915 and into a longer swing area between 1.0909 and 1.0918. That area will need to be broken to increase the bullish bias. This week favored the idea of a cut by the Federal Reserve in September despite the step back in the PPI today. The CPI was lower. Shelter may be starting to rotate lower. The Univ. of Michigan today stayed near the lows after the sharp fall last month.The initial jobless claims were lower but US holiday impact make seasonals hard to predict. The Fed Chair in his testimony hammered home that it is not only inflation now. To have a soft landing, focus must also be toward employment which he sees as slowing and not contributing to inflationary pressures. That is the market thinking that September is a nice point to start to lower rates. Mortgage or thinking that a December cut is also increasingly more likely.In the euro zone, the ECB cut in June, but is also looking toward September. They may argue for up-and-down range trading. In which case, this is an area that traders may look to lean against. However, if the price were to move above this level the biases still is in favor of the buyers at this point. So be aware.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
EURGBP trades to a new low going back to 2022 and tests an old swing area
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurgbp-trades-to-a-new-low-going-back-to-2022-and-tests-an-old-swing-area-20240712/
The EURGBP is trading to a new low going back to August 2022, and in the processes testing the high of a swing area between 0.8377 and 0.8392. The load today took out the low from June at 0.8397, but only by a few pips. Are the buyers leaning against the level?. Can they bounce the price higher after the run lower in July. I will discuss the technicals (risks/targets) in this video.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for July 12 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-july-12-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20240712/
The US PPI data (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-ppi-26-vs-23-expected-20240712/) came in higher than expectations, but after a quick move higher, the USD has moved back lower in the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. In the kickstart video, I take a look at those three currency pairs from a technical perspective. What are the levels in play and the risks. It is Friday so there can be some squaring up before the weekend. Perusing other markets after the data, US yields are trading your lowest. US stocks are modestly higher after the shift out of the NASDAQ yesterday with the move into the small-cap Russell 2000 stocks.Of note in the 3 major pairs, the GBPUSD is trading to the highest level since July 27, 2023 where the price peaked at 1.2995. That is the next key target. The USDJPY is moving lower after intervention yesterday forced the pair lower (also helped by the US CPI). .
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-gbp-is-the-strongest-and-the-jpy-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240712/
As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. Today, the US PPI will be released. Yesterday, the CPI data came in lower than expected on both the headline and the core. The PPI data is expected to show 0.1% MoM/2.3% YoY (vs 2.2% last month) for the headline number and 0.2% MoM/2.5% YoY ex food and energy (vs 2.3% last month). The University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary will be released with the expectation of 68.5. The 1 Year inflation expectations came in at 3.0% last month.US stocks were all mixed up yesterday with the Nasdaq tumbling (-1.95%) but the small cap Russell 2000 surging (+3.57%). The S&P which also fell (-0.88%), BUT Earnings have started to heat up with the traditional release of the some of the major banks including JP Morgan. All beat on the top and bottom line results but both Wells and JPM stock prices are still lower in pre-market trading. Citigroup earnings will be released at 8 AM ET. Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) 02 2024 (USD). Shares are down -5.59% despite the beat.EPS: 1.33 (expected 1.29) - BEATRevenue: 20.69 billion (expected 20.29 billion) - BEATReaffirms FY24 viewJPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) 02 2024 (USD). The stock is down -1.53% despite the beat.EPS: 4.40 (expected 4.19) - BEATAdjusted Revenue: 50.99 billion (expected 42.34 billion) - BEATManaged Revenue: 22.86 billion (expected 22.82 billion) - BEATInvestment Banking Revenue: 2.46 billion (expected 2.13 billion) - BEATBank of New York Mellon Corp (BK) 02 2024 (USD). Shares are up 0.59%Adjusted EPS: 1.51 (expected 1.43) - BEATRevenue: 4.60 billion (expected 4.52 billion) - BEATCit (C) earnings: Shares are down -2% in premarket trading Adjusted earnings-per-share: $1.52 (expected $1.39) - BEATRevenues: $20.1 billion (expected $20.07 billion) - BEATAfter the close yesterday, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee expressed satisfaction with the June CPI report, describing it as "excellent" and highlighting significant improvements in shelter inflation. He stated that the current trajectory aligns with the Fed's goal of 2% inflation and noted that keeping the policy rate steady amid falling inflation equates to tightening policy. Goolsbee emphasized that the economy is not overheating, the labor market is cooling but remains strong, and current financial conditions are restrictive. He also mentioned the need for flexibility in policy decisions and the importance of determining the appropriate timing for rate cuts.In the US debt market, yields are higher with gains of about 1-2basis points across the curve. Yesterday the 30 year bond auction was less than stellar, but the three and 10 year note options on Tuesday and Wednesday were met with strong demand. The yield curve has continued its move toward flattening (from negative) with the 2-30 year spread up to -8.4 basis points.The USDJPY today is up modestly after the sharp fall yesterday helped by the CPI and presumed intervention by the Bank of Japan. The price action was about 420 pips yesterday, but the price did rebound into the close. In the Asian session there was another move lower (down to 157.74 from ner 159.00), but the price has rebounded back higher and trades at 158.75 currently. The 200 bar MA on the 4 hour chart is just below at 158.68 which will be eyed as a barometer for buyers and sellers today. A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading higher by $0.80 or 0.97% at $83.42. At this time yesterday, the price was at $82.10Gold is trading down $-12.63 or -0.53% at $2403. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2381Silver is trading down $0.71 or -2.26% at $30.73. At this time on yesterday, the price is trading at $30.89Bitcoin trading lower at
USDJPY Technical Analysis – Another dip-buying opportunity?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-another-dip-buying-opportunity-20240712/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board yesterday following another soft US
CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-cpi-30-vs-31-yy-expected-20240711/) report and benign Jobless
Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claim-222k-vs-236k-estimate-20240711/) figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September
but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in
November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release with an economy that is
slowing but still growing. This should support the soft-landing narrative and
be positive for the risk sentiment. Even if the US Dollar
weakens against the other major currencies though, the JPY in this environment
should keep losing ground and the Japanese officials can’t do much to reverse
the trend unless the fundamentals change. Yesterday, the Japanese intervened (https://www.forexlive.com/news/boj-data-suggests-japan-may-have-spent-over-3-trillion-on-intervention-yesterday-20240712/)
right after the soft US CPI report as the strategy now seems to have shifted
from buying the Yen in low liquidity times to propping it up on soft US data. Overall, the data shouldn’t
have changed much as we will likely need weak US growth data to see some sustained
Yen strength, although it might be short lived if it’s not enough to make the
market to price in more aggressive rate cuts for the Fed on fears of a
recession. As long as we have stable global growth and positive risk sentiment,
the JPY should find it hard to maintain any strength. USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY dropped all the way back to the key trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
around the 158.00 handle and bounced off of it as the buyers piled in to buy
the dip. The sellers will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to
turn the bias more bearish and increase the bets into the 154.00 handle next. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the bounce on the trendline and the support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
zone around the 158.00 handle. If the price gets back there, we can expect the buyers
to defend the support and position for the continuation of the uptrend. A break
above the 160.00 handle should give the buyers even more conviction and
increase the bullish momentum into a new cycle high. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have some consolidation at the moment. If the price breaks above the
159.45 level we can expect even more buying pressure coming into the market as
the intervention gets erased further. The white lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US PPI and the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis – The bullish bias strengthened after the US CPI
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-the-bullish-bias-strengthened-after-the-us-cpi-20240712/
Fundamental
OverviewYesterday, gold spiked to the cycle highs following another soft US
CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-cpi-30-vs-31-yy-expected-20240711/) report. The market even started to price in the chance of a third rate
cut by the end of the year. Real yields fell and gold rallied as a result.As of now, it looks like gold have limited downside but lots of upside as
inflation abates slowly while risks to the growth picture increase the longer
the Fed keeps policy restrictive. In the short-term, strong US data might weigh
a bit on the market, but in the long-term weak data is likely to trigger bigger
upside moves.Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold extended the rally into the 2430 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) yesterday following the soft US CPI
report. That’s the area where the sellers will be piling in to position for a
drop all the way back to the 2277 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new
highs. Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a nice support zone around the 2390 level where we can
find the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/)
of the previous swing level, the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) and the Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) levels. This is where we can expect
the buyers to pile in to position for the continuation of the uptrend and
target a break above the resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price breaking below the trendline to increase the bearish bets into
the 2277 support next. Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward counter-trendline defining the current
pullback. If the bullish momentum remains strong enough, the buyers will likely
pile in on a break to the upside to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The
red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US PPI and the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-eur-is-the-strongest-and-the-cad-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240711/
As the North American session begins, the EUR is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest. The USD is mostly lower but only modestly lower as most of the major currencies are scrunched together today. Low to high trading ranges are modest today with 5 of the 6 major currency pairs vs the USD less than 30 pips. The NZDUSD range is only 20 pips, THe EURUSD is 26 pips and the USDCHF is 20 pips. The GBPUSD trading range is 34 pips which is the most "active" of the major currency pairs. There is simply not a lot going on. Today the focus is on the US CPI. For previews:What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/what-is-the-distribution-of-forecasts-for-the-us-cpi-20240711/)CPI importance is fading (https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-cpi-importance-is-fading-20240711/)BoA What we expect from US June CPI. (https://www.forexlive.com/news/bofa-what-we-expect-from-the-us-june-cpi-print-on-thursday-20240710/)In addition to the CPI data, initial jobless claims are expected at 236K vs 238K last week (at 8:30 AM ET). The US treasury will auction 30 year bond at 1 PM ET.US yields are little changed ahead of the data. The US major stock indices are lower ahead of the data. Yesterday, the S&P closed at a new record for the 6th consecutive day. The Nasdaq closed at a new record for the 7th consecutive day. A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading near unchanged at $82.10. At this time yesterday, the price was at $81.26Gold is trading up in dollars and $0.15 or 0.43% at $2381. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2378.40Silver is trading up $0.13 or 0.35% or $30.89. At this time on yesterday, the price is trading at $31.02Bitcoin trading higher at $58,788. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $58,509Ethereum is also trading higher at $3148.40. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $3111.90In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are trading lower. The S&P and NASDAQ continued their string of record-high closing levels yesterday. The S&P has now closed higher for sixth consecutive days. The NASDAQ index has closed higher for seventh consecutive days.Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -63.36 points. Yesterday, the Dow Industrial Average rose 429.39 points or 1.09% at $39,721.70.S&P futures are implying a decline of -6.91 points. Yesterday, the S&P index rose 56.95 points or 1.02% at 5633.92.Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -17.13 points. Yesterday, the index rose 218.16 points or 1.18% at 18647.45.European stock indices are trading higher after rebounding higher yesterday:German DAX, +0.30%France CAC +0.35%UK FTSE 100, +0.20%Spain's Ibex, +0.39%Italy's FTSE MIB, 0.06% (delayed 10 minutes).Shares in the Asian Pacific markets closed higher:Japan's Nikkei 225, +0.94%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +1.06%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +2.06%Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.93%Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher ahead of the CPI data and the 30 year bond auction2-year yield 4.636%, +0.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.609%5-year yield 4.247%, +0.9 basis points.. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.223%10-year yield 4.293%, +1.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.274%30-year yield 4.479% +1.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.468%Looking at the treasury yield curve the spreads are a touch more negative in trading today:The 2-10 year spread is at -34.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -33.5 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at -15.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -14.2 basis points.In the European debt market, yields are higher in the benchmark 10 year note sector:
USDCAD Technical Analysis – The price consolidates ahead of the US CPI
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-technical-analysis-the-price-consolidates-ahead-of-the-us-cpi-20240711/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board last Friday following the soft US NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-non-farm-payrolls-206k-vs-190k-expected-20240705/) report. The data showed some more labour
market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage
growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. The
market seems to be taking it as good news as it still expects a soft landing. The CAD, on the other hand,
gained last week against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continued to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed but
didn’t send recessionary signals. For the CAD, the next big event will be the
CPI report on July 16th. We saw another jump in wage growth in the
latest labour market (https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-june-employment-change-by-14k-versus-225k-estimate-20240705/) report, so the BoC will likely need
good CPI figures to deliver a rate cut in July.USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD is consolidating just above the key 1.36 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone. That’s where the buyers keep on stepping
in to position for a rally back into the 1.3785 resistance with a better risk
to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the new lows with the 1.35
handle as the first target. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a minor range between 1.3600 and 1.3650 levels. There’s
not much to do here and the market participants will likely keep on “playing
the range” until we get a breakout. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see the recent rangebound price action as the lack of catalysts and the wait
for the US CPI kept the market at bay. We will likely get a breakout today and
the direction will be decided by the data. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and the US
Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PPI and the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF buyers enter and push the pair toward its key 100 day MA.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-buyers-enter-and-push-the-pair-toward-its-key-100-day-ma-20240710/
The USDCHF buyers are making a play with the pair breaking above its 100-day moving average and 200 bar movie aired on the four hour chart near 0.89767. Ahead to the topside lies the 100 day moving average at 0.8992. Recall from yesterday that moving average held resistance. Getting above opens the door for a move toward its 200-hour moving average is 0.8997 (and above the natural resistance at 0.9000). IN the video, I outline the price action as it relates to the key technical levels.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
today).Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 21.2 points. Yesterday, the Dow Industrial Average fell -52.82 points or -0.13% 39291.98.S&P futures are implying a gain of 15.50 points. Yesterday, the S&P index rose 4.11 points or 0.07% at 5576.97 (a new record close).Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 84 points. Yesterday, the index rose 25.55 points or 0.14% at 18429.29 (a new record)European stock indices are rebounding higher after some recent declines on the political changes:German DAX, +0.68%France CAC +0.67%UK FTSE 100, was 0.62%Spain's Ibex, +0.99%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.85% (delayed 10 minutes).Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly lower with the exception of Manzanita which closed at a new high level:Japan's Nikkei 225, +0.61%China's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.68%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.29%Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.16%Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher2-year yield 4.609%, -4.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.641%5-year yield 4.223%, -2.5 basis points.. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.255%10-year yield 4.274%, -2.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.295%30-year yield 4.468%, -2.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.478%Looking at the treasury yield curve the spreads became more negative from yesterday's levels at this time:The 2-10 year spread is at -33.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -34.5 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at -14.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -16.4 basis points.In the European debt market, yields are lower in the benchmark 10 year note sector:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – We are consolidating at the key 1.28 resistance
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-technical-analysis-we-are-consolidating-at-the-key-128-resistance-20240710/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board last Friday following the soft US NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-non-farm-payrolls-206k-vs-190k-expected-20240705/)
report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the
unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy
that is slowing but still growing. We will
see if the market will be able to keep the positive sentiment on soft landing
hopes or start to worry about a recession. Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell (https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-9-jul-powells-testimony-keeps-easing-door-open-for-sept-20240709/)testified to Congress but he didn't offer anything in terms of forward
guidance as they want to see more data before signalling any action. The GBP, on the other hand,
gained last week against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continued to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed but
didn’t send recessionary signals. This week, we are seeing a consolidation as
the market awaits the US CPI and Jobless Claims figures tomorrow.On the monetary policy
front, the BoE (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-525-as-expected-20240620/)
in June left the door open for a rate cut in August with the market probability
standing at 60%. The next UK CPI report on July 17th will likely
decide whether the central bank will be able to deliver the first cut in August
or wait some more time.GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD is struggling around the 1.28 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) as the market awaits the release of
the US CPI and Jobless Claims figures tomorrow. This is where the sellers
continue to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a
drop back into the 1.2635 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.29 handle
next. GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk
to reward setup around the 1.2750 level where we can find the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/)
of the previous swing level and the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.2635 support. GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we are
seeing some pickup in bullish momentum today although the buyers will want to
see the price breaking above the most recent lower high at 1.2825 before piling
in with more conviction. On the other hand, a break below the minor counter-trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
might lead to an increase in the bearish momentum and provide the correction
into the 1.2750 level. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) will be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and the
US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI and
the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Copper Technical Analysis
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/copper-technical-analysis-20240710/
Fundamental
OverviewCopper extended the gains into the 4.68 level recently on the back of a
turnaround in momentum and some positive news from the Chinese
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-caixin-manufacturing-pmi-for-june-2024-518-expected-512-prior-517-20240701/). The price started to pull back last Friday following
the US
NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-non-farm-payrolls-206k-vs-190k-expected-20240705/) report as the market started to debate whether the US will manage to
achieve a soft landing, or the Fed will act too late to avoid a recession.Today, we got the latest Chinese
inflation data (https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-june-2024-cpi-02-yy-expected-04-and-ppi-08-yy-expected-08-20240710/) and it showed that the economy is still flirting with
deflation. That might give the officials a reason to increase the policy
support, which should be a positive driver for copper. All else being equal, if
we continue to see stable global growth, we could see new highs in the coming
months as major central banks ease their policies on more disinflation. Copper
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that copper eventually bounced on the key 4.35 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) where we had also the 50% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/), and extended the rally into the
4.68 level. We got a pullback recently following the US NFP report and the
buyers will be looking at the key levels on lower timeframes to structure their
trades. Copper Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price pulled back from the 4.66 resistance and it’s now near the
support around the 4.52 level where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level of the entire rally from the lows. This is where we can expect
the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a break
above the 4.66 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 4.35 level next.Copper Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) defining the current bearish
momentum. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to gain more
conviction and increase the bullish bets into new highs. The sellers, on the
other hand, will likely keep on leaning on the trendline to push into new lows
and target a break below the 4.52 support. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is going to be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI
and the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US
PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – The consolidation at the key support continues
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-technical-analysis-the-consolidation-at-the-key-support-continues-20240715/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board last week following another soft US CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-cpi-30-vs-31-yy-expected-20240711/) report and benign Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claim-222k-vs-236k-estimate-20240711/) figures. The market not only fully
priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of
a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a
goldilocks data release with an economy that is slowing but still growing. This
should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk
sentiment. The CAD, on the other hand,
keeps on being supported against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on
sentiment as the US data continues to support at least two rate cuts from the
Fed without sending recessionary signals. On the monetary policy
front, the next big event will be the CPI report tomorrow. We saw another jump
in wage growth in the latest labour market (https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-june-employment-change-by-14k-versus-225k-estimate-20240705/) report, so the BoC will likely need
good CPI figures to deliver a rate cut in July. The market is assigning a 75% probability
for a rate cut at the upcoming meeting. USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD remains confined in a tight range right at the key 1.36 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone. That’s where the buyers keep on stepping
in to position for a rally back into the 1.3785 resistance with a better risk
to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the new lows with the 1.35
handle as the first target. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the tight range between 1.3600 and 1.3650 levels. There’s not
much to do here and the market participants will likely keep on “playing the
range” until we get a breakout. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we got a slight breakout in the Asian session but that was faded
quickly in the European session. It’s now just a waiting game until we get a
breakout on either side. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have Fed Chair Powell speaking at the Economic Club of Washington,
D.C. Tomorrow, we get the Canadian CPI and the US Retail Sales report. On
Wednesday, we have Fed’s Waller speaking. On Thursday, we have the latest US Jobless
Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude with the Canadian Retail Sales
data.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – The pair continues to advance after the key breakout
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-technical-analysis-the-pair-continues-to-advance-after-the-key-breakout-20240715/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board last week following another soft US CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-cpi-30-vs-31-yy-expected-20240711/) report and benign Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claim-222k-vs-236k-estimate-20240711/) figures. The market not only fully
priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of
a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a
goldilocks data release with an economy that is slowing but still growing. This
should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk
sentiment. The AUD, on the other hand,
keeps on gaining against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continues to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed without
sending recessionary signals. On the monetary policy
front, the Aussie got a boost from another hot monthly CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/australia-weighted-cpi-yy-40-vs-38-expected-20240626/) report last month which raised the
chances of a rate hike (https://www.forexlive.com/news/is-a-rate-hike-back-on-the-menu-for-the-rba-20240626/). Things changed quickly though as RBA’s Hauser (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rbas-hauser-it-would-be-a-bad-mistake-to-set-policy-on-the-basis-of-one-number-20240627/) poured some cold water on the
expectations saying that he would rather hold rates steady for longer. That
suggests that the bar for a rate hike is very high, and the central bank is
more likely to keep rates higher for longer.AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD broke out of the two-month long range and after a brief consolidation,
increased the gains on goldilocks US data. The resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) around the 0.6713 level has now become support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-polarity-20220408/) if the price were to fall back to
it. From a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the
0.6713 support but we will need some very negative catalyst to trigger such a
big pullback. This week it could be the US Retail Sales or the Australian
Labour Market report. The sellers, on the other
hand, will need the price to fall back below the 0.6713 level to regain some
control and position for a drop into the 0.66 handle next. AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
defining the current bullish momentum. We can expect the buyers to lean on the
trendline if the price were to pull back to it. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop into the
0.6713 support. AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price got stuck in another consolidation recently with the price
action forming what looks like a symmetrical triangle (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/). The price can break on
either side of the pattern but what follows next is generally an increase in
momentum in the direction of the breakout. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have Fed Chair Powell speaking at the Economic Club of Washington,
D.C. Tomorrow, we get the US Retail Sales report. On Wednesday, we have Fed’s
Waller speaking and on Thursday we conclude with the Australian Labour Market
Bitcoin technical analysis: Where you can bet on making money (wait for these junctions!)
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/bitcoin-technical-analysis-where-you-can-bet-on-making-money-wait-for-these-junctions-20240713/
Bitcoin technical analysis in this simple 4h chartBTCUSD chart and technical analysis - watch these key levelsBitcoin trading analysis: key points and strategies 🤑📉📈Bulls' strategy: 📈Breakout from yellow bull flag:Target Point 1: Around $59,850.Target Point 2: If Point 1 is breached, aim for approximately $62,000 (anchored VWAP from 22 Jan 2024).Bullish scenario:Watch for a breakout without a pullback at Point 1.Successful breakout leads to next resistance at $62,000.Bears' strategy: 📉First lower standard deviation test:Bears aim for a test around $53,750 (first lower standard deviation of anchored VWAP).Psychological $50k level:Significant liquidity below the $50K mark.Key Point: Potential for stops being hit below $50K, triggering more selling pressure.Bottom band reversal:Watch for price action around $48,850, where previous long positions were stopped out.Potential reversal point at the bottom band of the yellow channel.Recommendations for traders: 💡💰Shorting opportunity:Consider shorting at Point 2 if the price reaches around $62,000.Long position:Look for buying opportunities below the $50K mark, especially around $48,500.Important note:Trade at your own risk!Always manage your risk and consider the market conditions before entering any trades.Stay updated:Visit ForexLive.com (https://www.forexlive.com/) for the latest market analysis and updates.Happy trading! 🚀📊
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
GBPUSD stretches toward the swing high from July 2023 and the natural resistance at 1.3000
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-stretches-toward-the-swing-high-from-july-2023-and-the-natural-resistance-at-13000-20240712/
The GBPUSD continues to stretch to the July 27 hi target at 1.2995. That is just short of the natural resistance at 1.3000. The high just reach 1.29898.There should be willing sellers/profit taking against that level with stops on a move above. Risk is low against the dual technical levels. Yesterday, the price moved above its 2024 high at 1.2893. The low price today was at 1.2901. The ability to stay above the previous high for 2024 gave the buyers the go-ahead to push higher and toward this next key area at 1.3000 area. If resistance can stall the rally, the 1.2900 area would be the corrective target.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USD runs back to the downside after brief run higher after PPI
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usd-runs-back-to-the-downside-after-brief-run-higher-after-ppi-20240712/
The USD has run back to the downside, after a brief move higher after the higher than expected PPI data:GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is extending to a new high for the year and new high going back to July 27 when the price hit 1.2995 (just short of 1.3000). The old high and the natural resistance at the 1.3000 to give traders some cause for pause from a technical perspective, with stops on a break to the upside.USDJPY: The USDJPY is testing the 61.8% retracement (again) of the move up from the June 5 low. Yesterday after the US CPI and intervention from the Bank of Japan (?), the price fall did stall at that level. The highs this week in the USDJPY could not extend above the high from last week. The fall below the 100 and 200 bar MA (blue and green lines on the chart below), is a negative tilt but getting below the 61.8% of the lastUSDCHF. The USDCHF today has been able to stay below its 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and 100 bar moving average on the same chart. Bearish. The price on the recent dip fell below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the June low to the July high, but currently trades above below the level at 0.8938. Moving back below the level with momentum adds to the bearish bias.NZDUSD: The NZDUSD has had a volatile week, training to the highest level since June 14 at 0.6153, and then falling to a low on Wednesday at 0.60637 (and below the 100-day MA. The ups-and-downs of the late have the 100 and 200 hour moving averages and the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart all near converged near 0.6105. The price has extended higher and moves back toward the 200 bar moving out on the 4-hour chart at 0.61255.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
$57,353. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $58,788Ethereum is also trading lower at $3076.40. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $3148.40In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are trading next. The S&P and NASDAQ snapped their string of record-high closing levels yesterday. The S&P snapped its six consecutive days of record closes, while the NASDAQ index halted its seven consecutive days of record levels.Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 74 points. Yesterday, the Dow Industrial Average rose 32.39 points or 0.08% at 39753.76.S&P futures are implying a gain of 3.96 points. Yesterday, the S&P index a 49.37 points or -0.88% at 5584.55Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -1.83 points. Yesterday, the index tumbled -364.04 points or -1.95% at 18283.41European stock indices are trading higher :German DAX, 0.37%France CAC +0.77%UK FTSE 100, + 0.27% Spain's Ibex, +0.54%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.44% (delayed 10 minutes).Shares in the Asian Pacific markets closed mixed. The Japan's Nikkei 225 index 225 fell off its record-high closing level from Thursday straightJapan's Nikkei 225, -2.45%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.3%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +2.59%Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.88%Looking at the US debt market, yields are modestly higher ahead of the PPI data 2-year yield 4.501%, -0.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.636%5-year yield 4.137%, +1.4 basis points.. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.247%10-year yield 4.208%, +1.5 basis points at this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.293%30-year yield 4.419%, +1.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.479%Looking at the treasury yield curve the negative curve is getting less negative with the 2 – 30 year spread down to -8.4 basis pointsThe 2-10 year spread is at -29.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -34.5 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at -8.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -15.7 basis points.In the European debt market, yields are higher in the benchmark 10 year note sector:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Goldilocks US data sends the pair higher
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-technical-analysis-goldilocks-us-data-sends-the-pair-higher-20240712/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board yesterday following another soft US CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-cpi-30-vs-31-yy-expected-20240711/) report and benign Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claim-222k-vs-236k-estimate-20240711/) figures. The market not only fully
priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of
a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a
goldilocks data release with an economy that is slowing but still growing. This
should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk
sentiment. The GBP, on the other hand,
keeps on gaining against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continues to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed without
sending recessionary signals. On the monetary policy
front, the BoE (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-525-as-expected-20240620/) in June left the door open for a rate cut in
August but BoE’s
Pill (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-pill-services-and-wages-continue-to-point-to-uncomfortable-strength-in-inflation-20240710/) poured some cold water on those expectations. The next UK CPI report on
July 17th will likely decide whether the central bank will be able
to deliver the first cut in August or wait some more time.GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD managed to get past the 1.28 handle this week on some hawkish
comments from BoE’s Pill and eventually extended the rally above the 1.29
handle following the soft US CPI report. All else being equal, the target
should now be the cycle high at 1.3140.GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
defining the current bullish momentum. From a risk management perspective, the
buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to position
for a continuation of the rally into the 1.3140 level next. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to turn the
bias more bearish and pile in for a drop back into the 1.28 handle. GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that after some consolidation around the 1.29 handle, the price restarted
going up today as the positive risk sentiment weighs on the greenback. There’s not
much to do here from a trading perspective as chasing the move at these levels doesn’t
look good. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US PPI and the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – Rotation hits the tech heavy index
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-technical-analysis-rotation-hits-the-tech-heavy-index-20240712/
Fundamental
OverviewYesterday, we got some goldilocks data as the US CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-cpi-30-vs-31-yy-expected-20240711/) report came in on the
softer side and the US
Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claim-222k-vs-236k-estimate-20240711/) remained stable. Despite this, the Nasdaq sold off and erased
all the gains from the US NFP report. The culprit seemed to be rotation being driven by hedge funds facing short
squeeze on their small cap hedges as yields come down, noted Bob Elliott CIO at
Unlimited Funds. In fact, the Russell 2000 displayed an opposite price action
with the index having its biggest daily performance against the Nasdaq on
record. This is generally very short-term stuff, so it wouldn’t be surprising to
see the Nasdaq going back to its usual upward trend today. Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq has a pretty bad day yesterday following the US CPI release.
The price is now testing a key daily trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) around the 20390 level. This is
where we can expect the buyers piling back in with a defined risk below the
trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish
bets into the 19730 level next. Nasdaq Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 20390 level where we can find
the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/)
of the trendline, the previous resistance
now turned support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-polarity-20220408/) and the 50% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level. The buyers should lean on this support, while the
sellers will want to see it breaking. Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have some minor consolidation right at the support zone. If the
price were to break above the 20500 level, we will likely see the bullish momentum
increasing as the buyers will likely pile in with more conviction. The red
lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US PPI and the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Читать полностью…
EURUSD Technical Analysis – The greenback remains on the backfoot
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-the-greenback-remains-on-the-backfoot-20240711/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board last Friday following the soft US NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-non-farm-payrolls-206k-vs-190k-expected-20240705/) report. The data showed some more labour
market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage
growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. The
market seems to be taking it as good news as it still expects a soft landing. The EUR, on the other hand,
gained last week against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continued to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed but
didn’t send recessionary signals. On the monetary policy front, the ECB members
continue to repeat that they will wait for the data throughout summer before
deciding on a rate cut in September. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD eventually extended the rally above the 1.08 handle and it’s
now targeting the resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
around the 1.0885 level. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in to
position for a drop back into the 1.0812 support. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into
the 1.10 handle next. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk
to reward setup around the 1.0812 support where we can also find the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/). The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to turn the bias more bearish and position
for a drop into the 1.0727 level next.EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the bounce on the 1.0812 level
and the continuation of the uptrend. Today we get the US CPI and the US Jobless
Claims figures, so we might see a spike either into the 1.0885 resistance or
the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and the US
Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PPI and the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – The bullish bias remains intact
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-the-bullish-bias-remains-intact-20240711/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board last Friday following the soft US NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-non-farm-payrolls-206k-vs-190k-expected-20240705/) report. The data showed some more labour
market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage
growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. The
market seems to be taking it as good news as it still expects a soft landing. Even if the US Dollar
weakens against the other major currencies, the JPY in this environment should
keep losing ground and the Japanese officials can’t do much to reverse the
trend unless the fundamentals change. We will likely need weak US growth data
to see some sustained Yen strength, although it might be short lived if it’s
not enough to make the market to price in more aggressive rate cuts for the Fed.USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY last week pulled back towards the key 160.00 handle after some
soft US data, but eventually erased all the losses this week. The buyers will want
to see the price breaking above the cycle high to increase the bullish bets
into the 165.00 level. The sellers, on the other
hand, will need the price to fall below the 160.00 handle to turn the bias more
bearish and position for a drop into the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
around the 158.00 level.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke above the downward minor trendline this week that was
defining the bearish momentum into the 160.00 handle. The buyers piled in on
the breakout and extended the rally into the 161.80 level. There’s not much to
do here for the sellers other than waiting for a change in momentum to start
positioning for new lows. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. The buyers will keep on leaning on it to target new higher highs,
while the sellers will want to see a break below it to position for a drop into
the 160.00 handle next. The white lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and the US
Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PPI and the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for July 10 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-july-10-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20240710/
In the kickstart video for July 10, 2024, I break down the technicals that are driving the three major currency pairs: EURUSDUSDJPYGBPUSDToday I give a bonus look at the NZDUSD as it is the biggest mover after the RBNZ rates unchanged but it was considered a more dovish unchanged decision. Technically,The EURUSD is tilting more to the upside but buyers and sellers have battle it out. The good news is that the dip yesterday held against a swing area support level keeping the buyers in play/in control.The USDJPY moved back above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages yesterday. Those levels come in at 161.01 and 161.18 respectively. As long as the price to remain above those levels (it trades at 161.44 currently) the buyers are more in control with the high price from July at 161.93 the next target. At level corresponds with 1987 levels.The GBPUSD is moving higher Ed trading your highs for the day. Like the EURUSD, yesterday it held support against the high of a swing area near 1.2777. The pair is trading at 1.2807 and looks toward 1.28168 and 1.28272.The bonus technical look at the NZDUSD saw the price will blow her after the more dovish rate decision (door is open for a cut). However, the pair moved down to test the 100 day MA where dip buyers have leaned and led to a modest bounce. The 100 day MA comes in at 0.6067. It's 200 day moving average is a touch higher at 0.6075. The current price trades at 0.6080. Staying above the moving averages gives the dip buyers some hope. Moving below would open the door for more downside momentum.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The GBP is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-gbp-is-the-strongest-and-the-nzd-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240710/
-As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest of the major currencies, while the NZD is the weakest. Most of the price reaction today is in the NZD which fell sharply vs all the major currencies after its rate decision. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's kept rates unchanged in what was a more dovish decision. The central bank emphasized that restrictive monetary policy has effectively reduced consumer price inflation, with expectations for headline inflation to fall within the 1-3% target range by the second half of this year. That diverged from the last rate decision which was considered more hawkish. Despite easing labor market pressures and consistent economic activity, some domestic price pressures persist. Consequently, the Bank maintains a restrictive stance but indicates potential tempering of this restraint over time, aligning with the anticipated decline in inflation pressures.WestPac's response? The market reaction to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate decision was dovish, surprising many who expected a reiteration of May's hawkish messages. The final paragraph of the statement suggested that monetary restraint would be tempered over time, reflecting a less hawkish stance. Additionally, BNZ has adjusted their forecast, now anticipating a rate cut in November instead of February.It will be another quiet day on the economic front with only wholesale inventories at 10 AM on the schedule along with the weekly cruel inventories at 10:30 AM ET. From an event standpoint, Fed Chair Powell will complete his today trek to Capitol Hill, with his testimony to the House financial services committee. Yesterday, the chairman danced around committing to any course of policy action although he did reiterate that the course for the next rate change would be to the downside. He characterized the risk as two-way and not just skewed toward inflation. He commented on a couple occasions, that the labor market has cooled considerably, but that it remains strong. Nevertheless, he thought employment wasn't a large contributor to inflationary pressures. The door remains open for a cut in September.Rates in the US yesterday did move higher but it may have been impacted by the auction calendar this week with the treasury selling 3/10/30-year coupon issues. Yesterday the three year auction was a success on back of solid domestic demand in the US. Today, the treasury will auction off 10 year notes at 1 PM ET. Today, yields are lower. Stocks in the premarket are trading higher led by the NASDAQ and S&P once again. The S&P has closed at a new record for four consecutive days. The NASDAQ index has closed at a new record for five consecutive days.Also on the schedule today is: BOE Mann speaking at 11:30 AM ETFed Gov. Bowman and Goolsby both speak at 2:30 PM ET Fed Gov. Lisa Cook scheduled to speak at 7:30 PM ETA snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading down -$0.14 or -0.18% at $81.26. The price is currently on pace for its fourth consecutive down day. At this time yesterday, the price was at $82.05Gold is trading up $15 or 0.64% at $2378.40. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2360.64Silver is trading up $0.25 or 0.84% at $31.02. At this time on yesterday, the price is trading at $31.05Bitcoin trading higher at $58,509. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $57,439Ethereum is also trading higher at $ 3,111.90. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $3081.80In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are trading higher. The S&P and NASDAQ continue their string of record high closing levels. The S&P has closed higher for four consecutive days. The NASDAQ index has closed higher for five consecutive days (working on its sixth
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – The price consolidates after the breakout
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-technical-analysis-the-price-consolidates-after-the-breakout-20240710/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board last Friday following the soft US NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-non-farm-payrolls-206k-vs-190k-expected-20240705/) report. The data showed some more labour
market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage
growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will
see if the market will be able to keep the positive sentiment on soft landing
hopes or start to worry about a recession.Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell (https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-9-jul-powells-testimony-keeps-easing-door-open-for-sept-20240709/)testified to Congress but he didn't offer anything in terms of forward guidance as they want to see more data before signalling any action. The AUD, on the other hand,
gained last week against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continued to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed but
didn’t send recessionary signals. This week, we are seeing a consolidation as the market awaits the US CPI and Jobless Claims figures tomorrow. On the monetary policy front, the Aussie got a boost from another
hot monthly CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/australia-weighted-cpi-yy-40-vs-38-expected-20240626/) report last month which raised the chances of
a rate hike (https://www.forexlive.com/news/is-a-rate-hike-back-on-the-menu-for-the-rba-20240626/), although RBA’s Hauser (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rbas-hauser-it-would-be-a-bad-mistake-to-set-policy-on-the-basis-of-one-number-20240627/) poured some cold water on the
expectations as he said that he would rather hold rates steady for longer. AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD broke out of the two-month long range last week and consolidated
just above it ever since. The resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
around the 0.6713 level has
now become support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-polarity-20220408/). That’s where we can expect
the buyers to keep piling in with a defined risk below it to position for a
rally into the 0.6870 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price falling back below the 0.6713 level to regain some control and
position for a drop into the 0.66 handle. AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the consolidation just above the 0.6713 level as the market awaits
the key economic data tomorrow with the release of the US CPI and Jobless Claims
figures. For now, we will likely keep ranging here until we get a breakout on
either side. AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a good resistance zone around the 0.6750 level. The buyers
will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new
highs, while the sellers will likely keep on leaning on the resistance to
position for a break below the 0.6713 level. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) will be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and the
US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI and
the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis – The bullish bias remains intact
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-the-bullish-bias-remains-intact-20240710/
Fundamental
OverviewGold erased all the gains from the US NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-non-farm-payrolls-206k-vs-190k-expected-20240705/) report on Monday with
some pointing to the news
of China (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/peoples-bank-of-china-bought-zero-gold-for-a-second-month-in-a-row-in-june-20240707/) remaining on pause for the second consecutive month on gold
purchases as the likely culprit. Overall,
nothing has changed fundamentally, and the bullish bias should remain intact. As of now, it looks like gold have limited downside but lots of upside as
inflation abates slowly while risks to the growth picture increase the longer
the Fed keeps policy restrictive. In the short-term, strong US data might weigh
a bit on the market, but in the long-term weak data is likely to trigger bigger
upside moves.Gold Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold has been on a steady rise since bottoming out near the key 2277 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/). The buyers are now looking towards the upper
bound of the range around the 2430 level. If the price gets there, we can
expect the sellers to step in to position for a drop back into the 2277 support.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price pulled back from the 2387 resistance and bounced on the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/).
The buyers piled in around the trendline with a defined risk below it to target
a break above the resistance. The sellers will likely step in around the resistance
again to target a break below the trendline and increase the bearish bets into the
2277 support. Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price is breaking above an important zone today. We can expect
more buyers piling in around these levels to position for a break above the 2387
resistance. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline and the 2350
level to turn the bias more bearish and position for a drop into the 2277
support. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is going to be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI
and the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US
PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
