S&P 500 Technical Analysis – The pullback extends further
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-500-technical-analysis-the-pullback-extends-further-20240719/
Fundamental
OverviewThe S&P 500 has been on the backfoot recently as the goldilocks data
led to a strong rotation into small caps stocks. Yesterday, there was general
weakness across all the indices although it wasn’t triggered by any catalyst. The
fundamentals haven’t changed, on the contrary, they strengthened the case for a
soft landing. People got too used to 1% pullbacks, but 3 to 5% pullbacks are
normal. S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that in case pullback deepens further, the buyers will find a good support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 5500 level where we can find
the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/) of the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to increase the
bearish bets into the 5200 level next. S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the bearish momentum increased on the break of the minor trendline as
the sellers added to the bearish bets. The price is testing a support zone around
the 5580 level where the buyers are piling in with a defined risk below it. If
the price were to break lower, the sellers will likely increase the bearish
bets into the 5500 support next. S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum. If we get a bounce from the 5580 support, we can expect the sellers
to lean on the trendline to position for a break below the support with a
better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking above the trendline to increase the
bullish bets into a new all-time high. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
GBPUSD sellers push price below rising MA, weakening bullish control
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sellers-in-the-gbpusd-are-pushing-the-price-below-the-rising-100-hour-ma-20240718/
The GBPUSD moved higher yesterday, reaching its highest level since July 18, 2023, with a peak at 1.3043 before slowing. This move pushed the price above the July 28 high of 1.2995 and the psychological resistance at 1.3000. Today, however, the price has rotated lower, falling back below both the 1.3000 and 1.2995 levels, indicating a weakening in the bulls' control.Recently, the price broke below the rising 100-hour MA (currently at 1.29819). Previously, on July 9 and July 10, the price dipped below this MA but quickly rebounded. The key question today is whether the price can stay below this MA for a longer period and continue to decline.Looking at the hourly chart, the pair has been trending upwards since bottoming on July 2, moving from 1.2614 to yesterday's high of 1.3043, a gain of 429 pips in 11 days—a significant move in a short period. A correction is possible. The next target is the 38.2% retracement of the recent upward move, at 1.29413. Below that, the rising 200-hour MA at 1.2913 and the 50% retracement level at 1.29099 are achievable targets, representing a normal/modest correction of the trend.Could the price snap back higher? Yes, a move back above the 100-hour MA at 1.29819 or the high from Monday at 1.2995 would weaken the short-term bearish bias. However, in the absence of such a move, sellers remain in play.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD technical bias has a little tilt to the upside this week. Can the buyers push more?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-technical-bias-has-a-little-tilt-to-the-upside-this-week-can-the-buyers-push-more-20240718/
Yesterday at this time, the USDCAD was basing at the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart and moving above the 200-bar MA on the same chart. I noted that this price action tilted the technical bias to the upside (see my post by clicking HERE (https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-extends-to-the-upside-and-tilts-the-technical-bias-to-the-upside-20240717/)). However, the price couldn't sustain the upward momentum and fell back below the 200-bar MA (green line currently at 1.3684). This shifted the technical bias to a neutral area between the 100-bar MA at 1.3646 and the 200-bar MA at 1.3684.Today, the price is back above the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart, once again tilting the bias to the upside. Buyers are making another play. The trading decision rule remains: if the price stays above the 200-bar MA at 1.3684, buyers have more control, and upside probing is likely. Conversely, a move back below this level shifts the bias back to neutral.Overall, the price action reflects uncertainty among buyers and sellers. Trading involves anticipating future moves based on price action and technicals, which currently support a more upside bias. This view can change, but the current indications favor the buyers.If you have a thought (same or different) or would like me to analyze another financial instrument (it can be anything), please post in the comments.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
US stocks open mixed but with the Nasdaq leading the way today
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/us-stocks-open-mixed-but-with-the-nasdaq-leading-the-way-today-20240718/
In the past few days, the Dow Industrial Average has moved higher while the S&P and NASDAQ indices have moved lower. Today, the roles have reversed, with the Dow trading lower and the S&P and NASDAQ trading higher. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also slightly lower today after some profit-taking yesterday following a sharp rise over the past week.The snapshot of the market five minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average -56.44 points or -0.14% at 41141.65S&P index +12.03 points or 0.22% at 5600.31NASDAQ index of 103.79 points or 0.58% at 18100.72.The small-cap Russell 2000 is currently trading down -6.7 points or -0.30% at 2232.92.US yields are trading higher after a modest dip following the move higher in the initial and continuing jobless claims (weaker employment) 2-year yield 4.450%, +2.1 basis points5-year 4.101%, +3.2 basis points10-year 4.184%, +3.9 basis points30-year yield 4.402%, +4.4 basis pointsThe EURUSD has moved lower after the ECB kept rates unchanged, with Lagarde offering little information about a potential September decision. The price is currently trading within a swing area between 1.0908 and 1.0918. The 100-day moving average at 1.0908 will be a key indicator for both buyers and sellers. Moving below would be more bearish. On Tuesday, the price did move modestly below the MA, but momentum faded quickly and the price reversed to
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – A key breakout increased the bearish momentum
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-a-key-breakout-increased-the-bearish-momentum-20240718/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD remains on the
backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling
inflation. This week, we got a good US Retail Sales (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-retail-sales-00-versus-03-20240716/) report suggesting that the stories
of deteriorating consumer spending have been exaggerated. Overall, this should
continue to support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk
sentiment. The JPY in this environment
should keep losing ground against the major currencies and the Japanese
officials can’t do much to reverse the trend unless the fundamentals change. Yesterday,
the price broke through a key trendline and triggered a quick move lower in the
USDJPY pair probably due to stops getting triggered. Overall, the Yen will
likely need weak US growth data to see some sustained strength on recessionary
fears and more aggressive rate cuts expectations. But as long as we have stable
global growth and generally positive risk sentiment, the JPY should remain in a
downtrend. USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY broke through the key trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) around the 158.00 handle and saw an
increase in the bearish momentum as the sellers piled in and the buyers had to
square their positions. Technically, the next target should be the 152.00 level
where we will likely find the buyers stepping in to position for a new cycle
high. For now, the sellers remain in control. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a good resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 157.00 handle where
we can find the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/) of the minor downward trendline and
the Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) levels. This is where we can expect
the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for
a drop into the 152.00 level with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price rising back above the 158.00 level
to regain control and position for a rally into a new cycle high. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the bearish setup around the trendline. The white lines define
the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude
the week with the Japanese CPI data.See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD sellers push the price back toward key MA, retracement and swing area support
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-sellers-push-the-price-back-toward-key-ma-retracement-and-swing-area-support-20240717/
IIn the new trading day in Australia, the release of the employment report is expected to significantly impact prices. Knowing the key technical levels can help map out the potential market reactions. On the downside, the next critical area is between 0.6708 and 0.6713, corresponding with the rising 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the June low, and a swing area dating back to mid-May.A break below this area could lead to another multi-technical zone coming into play, involving the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, the 50% retracement, and a rising trend line, all of which range between 0.6675 and 0.6686. Sellers would need to push below these levels to gain more confidence for a further decline.Conversely, a stronger employment report could drive prices up towards the swing high from last Monday's trading at 0.6760. Surpassing this level might lead traders to target last week's high of 0.67978, just below the natural resistance at 0.6800. Beyond that, the topside channel resistance level at 0.6806 (and rising) would be eyed.Thus, the technical roadmap is set; the question remains, what will the fundamental data reveal to the market?
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
NASDAQ index now down -500 points. Biggest percentage decline since December 2022
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-index-now-down-500-points-biggest-percentage-decline-since-december-2022-20240717/
The NASDAQ index continues to get hit with the price now down 500 points or -2.72%. That is its largest decline since December 2022.Looking at the hourly chart below, the price gap lower and immediately moved below its 100-hour moving average (blue line currently at 18194). The next key target area comes between 17820 and 17839. Those levels represent the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the May 31 low and the rising 200-hour moving average. The price has not traded below its 200-hour moving average since May 2 (at a level 16014 - so the price is much higher of course). Of course, the major movers in the Magnificent 7 will be releasing earnings but not for a week or so. Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla kick if off on July 23rd. Nvidia won;t announce until August 15 nearly a month from now. Below is the tentative schedule.Alphabet, July 23Microsoft July 23Tesla July 23Amazon, July 25Meta Platforms, July 31Apple, August 1Nvidia, August 15This may be a quarter where these major players announce BEATS, but the focus will be more on the forward guidance.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF breaks lower below technical levels, increasing the bearish bias. What next?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-breaks-lower-below-technical-levels-increasing-the-bearish-bias-what-next-20240717/
Flight to safety flows into the Swiss franc and movement out of the US dollar has the USDCHF moving sharply lower in trading today. The pair also tumbled below a key technical target defined by the:200 day moving average at 0.888438.2% retracement of the move up from the December 2023 low at 0.8883, and aSwing area between 0.8880 and 0.8885Going forward staying below that area is needed to keep the sellers in firm control. Moving above would be a huge disappointment for the technical sellers on the break lower.On the downside, the next target area comes between 0.8818 and 0.8825. Below that is the 50% midpoint of the same move higher from the December 2023 low. That level comes in at 0.8777.Sellers are in control on the break lower today.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Bounce or break?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-technical-analysis-bounce-or-break-20240717/
Fundamental
OverviewCrude oil has been on the
backfoot ever since the last US NFP report as the market might have started to
question the reasons to push into even higher highs. Things got even murkier as
Trump’s odds of winning soared after the failed assassination attempt. He is a great supporter of
the “drill, baby, drill” slogan and he will likely put an end to the war in
Ukraine if he gets elected. Those should be bearish drivers for crude oil as expectations
of increased supply amid a slowing but growing economy might give the buyers a
hard time. On the other hand, we have the Fed that is about to cut rates into a resilient economy, which should be a positive driver for demand. The technicals might help here as a bounce on the key support zone should lead to higher prices, while a breakout to the downside would spell trouble for the market. Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil pulled back from the 84.50 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) all the way to the key 80 support
zone. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk
below the zone to position for a rally into the 87.50 level. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the 80 support to
increase the bearish bets into the 77 level next. Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong support zone around the 80 level where we can also
find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/).
There’s not much else to add here as the buyers will look to buy from this zone,
while the sellers will want to see a breakout to the downside to increase the
bearish bets. Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the most recent lower high stands around the 81.30 level. This is the
level the buyers will want to see breaking to gain even more confidence and
pile in for a rally into the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
around the 83 level. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have Fed’s Waller speaking while tomorrow we conclude with the
latest US Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD bounces off 50% midpoint, giving the buyers the "go ahead" to push higher
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-bounces-off-50-midpoint-giving-the-buyers-the-go-ahead-to-push-higher-20240716/
The EURUSD moved lower in the US session and in the process moved down to test the 50% midpoint of the trading range since the December 2023 high. That level comes in at 1.08695. The current price is at 1.0888. The bounce off that support target is a key bounce and bullish signal. Going back in time the price has been above and below that 50%, without much respect for it. That is until today.As a result, it is sending the bullish signal and sets the level as the close stop. Staying above and the price can probe more to the upside. The next key target is 1.0909 to 1.0918. Get above that level and the 61.8% of the same move lower at 1.0933 would be targeted. Sellers had a shot to get below the 50% support as session and the new week low. They couldn't do it. So the buyers now have the control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD moves higher after Canada CPI & US retail sales but can't keep momentum going
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-moves-higher-after-canada-cpi-us-retail-sales-but-cant-keep-momentum-going-20240716/
The Canada CPI came in weaker than expectations. The US retail sales was stronger. That should have sent the USDCAD higher and it did but after moving briefly above 1.3700, the price has rotated back down toward the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.3683. That level will be a close risk level for buyers now. Stay above is more bullish. Move below and some of the bullishness today, is neutralized. Next week, the BOC meets and are expected to cut by -0.25%. The market is pricing in a 93% chance. Now, the cut may be all priced in, but the story is dynamic and constantly changing. As a result, watching the technicals will help tell the story.What we know in the short term the 1.3683 is support. Over the medium term, that level along with other MAs below will also be in play including the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour at 1.3658 and the 100 day MA at 1.3644. If those MAs are all broken, the bears are back in control.Conversely, staying above, and the buyers have the edge. Find out all the details in the above video.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for July 16 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-july-16-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20240716/
US retail sales came in a stronger and the USD has moved higher. The EURUSD, and GBPUSD has made new session lows. The USDJPY, which was up the Asian session, but retraced some of those gains in the early European session, has reversed back to the upside.and is trading to a new session high. In this video, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs from a technical perspective. We know the USD is higher but what has the move done to the charts? What levels are in play? What are the risk? What are the targets? I will speak to that in the above video.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-eur-is-the-strongest-and-the-aud-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240716/
The EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the North American session begins.The ECB meets on Thursday with the expectation of no change.The AUDUSD fell below its 100-hour MA yesterday and apart from an early blip above in the Asian session, stayed below that MA and then moved below the 200-hour MA at 0.67493 currently ( blue and green lines on the chart below). The low from last week at 0.67233 is the next downside target, followed by the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the June swing low at 0.6713 if the price can stay below the 200-hour MA. The USD is modestly higher ahead of the US retail sales, import/export prices, Business inventories and NAHB housing starts. Canada releases their key CPI data ahead of their interest rate decision next week. Fed's Governor Kugler speaks at 2:45 PM ET. The trading ranges for currency pairs are very modest with the EURUSD (21 pips), GBPUSD (21 pips), USDCHF (16 pips), USDCAD (20 pips) and NZDUSD (29 pips) all below 30 pips from the low to the high. That is not a lot of price action. The USDJPY does have an 82 pip trading range (the largest of the majors) after the break below the 61.8% of the last move higher late yesterday failed. Sellers turned to buyers and pushed the price back to the 200 hour MA at 158.733 before stalling (see green line on the chart below). After the US session yesterday, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly indicated a potential rate cut soon, emphasizing growing confidence in controlling inflation towards 2%, normalization of policy, a slowing US economy, and nearing the Fed's goals. There are some analysts/economists calling for a July cut but the consensus is still for September and then December.Earnings released this morning showed:State Street Corp (STT) Q2 2024 (USD): EPS 2.10 (exp. 2.03) BEAT, Revenue 3.19B (exp. 3.10B) BEATCharles Schwab Corp (SCHW) Q2 2024 (USD): adj. EPS 0.73 (exp. 0.72) BEAT, Revenue 4.69B (exp. 4.68B) BEATMorgan Stanley (MS) Q2 2024 (USD): EPS 1.82 (exp. 1.65) BEAT, Revenue 15.02B (exp. 14.30B) BEAT; reauthorized multi-year repurchase program up to USD 20B. Shares are trading down -2.76% despite the beat.Bank of America Corp (BAC) Q2 2024 (USD): EPS 0.83 (exp. 0.80) BEAT, Revenue 25.4B (exp. 25.22B) BEAT, Net interest income FTE 13.86B (exp. 13.81B) BEAT, Trading revenue ex DVA 4.68B (exp. 4.53B) BEAT. Shares are up around 2% in premarket tradingPNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) Q2 2024 (USD): Diluted EPS 3.39 (exp. 2.98) BEAT, Revenue 5.41B (exp. 5.41B) METUnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) Q2 2024 (USD): adj. EPS 6.80 (exp. 6.66) BEAT, Revenue 98.9B (exp. 98.84B) BEAT, FY EPS view 27.50-28.00 (exp. 27.59) IN LINE. Shares are trading down -1.62% in premarket tradingA snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading trading down -$1.38 at $80.53 helped by hopes of a Trump victory which would open up the spigots. At this time yesterday, the price was at $82.14Gold is trading up $17.50 or 0.73% at $2439.20. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2419.34Silver is trading up $0.15 or 0.51% at $30.81. At this time yesterday, the price is trading at $30.77Bitcoin trading at $63,782. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $62,549Ethereum is also trading sharply higher at $3418.40. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $3342In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are trading marginally higher. Yesterday, the Dow Industrial Average closed at a record high level for the first time since May 17. The S&P index closed just below its record high of 5633.92 (closed at $5631.21). The Nasdaq record high close from last Wednesday is at 18647.45.Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 31.12 points.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – It’s an important week for the Pound
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-technical-analysis-its-an-important-week-for-the-pound-20240716/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board last week following another soft US CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-cpi-30-vs-31-yy-expected-20240711/) report and benign Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claim-222k-vs-236k-estimate-20240711/) figures. The market not only fully
priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of
a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a
goldilocks data release with an economy that is slowing but still growing. This
should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk
sentiment. The GBP, on the other hand,
keeps on gaining against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continues to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed without
sending recessionary signals. On the monetary policy
front, the BoE (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-525-as-expected-20240620/) in June left the door open for a rate cut in
August but BoE’s Pill (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-pill-services-and-wages-continue-to-point-to-uncomfortable-strength-in-inflation-20240710/) poured some cold water on those
expectations. In fact, the market was assigning a 60% chance of a rate cut in
August but that went down to 50% following his comments. We will likely need a very
good UK CPI report or very ugly UK Jobs data to see the BoE cutting rates at
the upcoming meeting. GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD broke through the 1.28 handle last week on some hawkish
comments from BoE’s Pill and eventually extended the rally above the 1.29
handle following the soft US CPI report. The pair lost some momentum at the
1.30 handle as traders await the release of key UK data in the next days, but
all else being equal, the target should now be the cycle high at 1.3140.GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) defining the current bullish
momentum. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better
risk to reward setup around the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level to position for a continuation of the rally into the
1.3140 level next. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline and the 1.29 level
to turn the bias more bearish and pile in for a drop back into the 1.28 handle.
GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price action became a bit rangebound near the 1.30 level and a
pullback would be a welcome thing for the buyers. We could see that happening
today as we get the US Retail Sales data. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Retail Sales report. Tomorrow, we have the UK CPI and Fed’s
Waller speaking. On Thursday, we get the UK Labour Market report and the latest
US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the UK Retail
Sales data.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Crude oil futures settle at $81.91
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-futures-settles-at-8191-20240715/
The price of crude oil futures is settling at $81.91. That is down $-0.30 or -0.36%. The high price reached $82.58. The low price was at $81.47.Technically looking at the daily chart the price remains below a topside trendline near $84.75. On the downside, the rising 100-day moving average is at $80.54 and remains a key level to get to and through to increase the bearish bias. WIth the price between the levels, trading is more neutral technically on the daily chart.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis – Is this just a pullback or a fakeout?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-is-this-just-a-pullback-or-a-fakeout-20240719/
Fundamental
OverviewGold has been on a
steady retreat since hitting a new all-time high on Wednesday. The price
tonight fell below the previous key resistance at 2430 level, and some
might start questioning if this is just a pullback or the breakout was in
reality a fakeout. As of now, it looks like gold have limited downside but lots of upside as
inflation abates slowly while risks to the growth picture increase the longer
the Fed keeps policy restrictive. In the short-term, strong US data might weigh
a bit on the market, but in the long-term weak data is likely to trigger bigger
upside moves.Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold fell below the 2430 level overnight without any clear catalyst.
The sellers might now start to pile in with a defined risk above the 2430 level
to position for a drop back into the 2277 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/). The buyers, on the other hand, will likely
look for dip-buying opportunities on the lower timeframes. Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price has now pulled back to the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) that’s been defining the bullish
momentum since the beginning of July. This is where we can expect the buyers to
step in to position for the continuation of the uptrend. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish
bets into the 2277 support. Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price is near the lower bound of the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/), which makes it a nice risk to
reward setup for the buyers. Today we don’t have any notable economic release
on the agenda. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
The technical bias in NASDAQ is tilting more to the downside after break of 200 hour MA
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-technical-bias-in-nasdaq-is-tilting-more-to-the-downside-after-break-of-200-hour-ma-20240718/
The Nasdaq index moved higher in the first few minutes of trading today, giving buyers some hope after the sharp move lower. Recall from yesterday (see post here (https://www.forexlive.com/news/nasdaq-index-continues-its-run-to-the-downside-20240717/)and here (https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-index-now-down-500-points-biggest-percentage-decline-since-december-2022-20240717/)), the Nasdaq moved down by over 500 points. In the post (https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-index-now-down-500-points-biggest-percentage-decline-since-december-2022-20240717/), I started to talk about the 200 hour MA as the next target. Today, the price has now moved below that MA level at 17875.36. The low today has reached 17784.16 so far. The last time the price traded below its 200 hour moving average was back on May 2, 2024Going forward, staying below that 200-hour moving average keeps the sellers and control and has them targeting other levels including the low price from July 1 at 17657.64, the low price from June 24 and June 11 at 17494, and the 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the April 19 low. That level comes in at 17358.70.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF bounces off the support target at 0.8819. Buyers are making a play.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-bounces-off-the-support-target-at-08819-buyers-are-making-a-play-20240718/
In the video and post yesterday, I spoke of the support target between 0.8818 and 0.8825 (see: "USDCHF breaks lower below technical levels, increasing the bearish bias. What next? (https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-breaks-lower-below-technical-levels-increasing-the-bearish-bias-what-next-20240717/)"). In that post (and in the video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=rZToGIX8cfM&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forexlive.com%2F&source_ve_path=Mjg2NjY)), I wroteOn the downside, the next target area comes between 0.8818 and 0.8825. Below that is the 50% midpoint of the same move higher from the December 2023 low. That level comes in at 0.8777.In trading today, the low bottomed at 0.8819, and subsequently after an initial bounce higher, the higher 0.08825 level as tested with buyers leaning once again. That gave buyers confidence the price bottom was in, and the price has indeed moved modestly higher. What next?If the low is in place, moving back toward the 200-day MA, and the broken 38.2% of the move up from the December 2023 low cannot be ruled out (among other technical levels near that area). That level comes in at 0.8883. The high just reached 0.8851. Yesterday, those levels were broken opening the downside to more selling momentum. Having said that, I would expect that if that area is tested (or neared), that sellers would lean and look to keep a lid on the price action ahead of that level. However, if rebroken, that would certainly disappoint the sellers from yesterday. The question is "Can the bounce even get up to that level?"For dip buyers, risk is defined at the 0.8818. Move below, and the selling should restart with 0.8777 the next key target (50% of the move up from December).
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The UK data pushed back imminent rate cut hopes
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-technical-analysis-the-uk-data-pushed-back-imminent-rate-cut-hopes-20240718/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD remains on the
backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling
inflation. This week, we got a good US Retail Sales (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-retail-sales-00-versus-03-20240716/) report suggesting that the stories
of deteriorating consumer spending have been exaggerated. Overall, this should
continue to support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk
sentiment. The GBP, on the other hand,
keeps on gaining against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continues to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed without
sending recessionary signals. Yesterday’s greenback weakness might have been
due to the drop in the USDJPY pair as flows there could have spilled over other
markets.On the monetary policy
front, the data this week was a disappointment for the BoE as the UK CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-june-cpi-20-vs-19-yy-expected-20240717/) figures were unchanged from the prior month
and the labour market (https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-may-ilo-unemployment-rate-44-vs-44-expected-20240718/) report showed wage growth remaining
at elevated levels. Therefore, the market doesn’t expect anymore a rate cut in
August.GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD managed to extend the rally above the 1.30 handle following the
UK CPI report and general US Dollar weakness yesterday. From a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 1.29
handle where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/). The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking below the 1.29 handle to increase the
bearish bets into the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) around the 1.27 handle. GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) defining the current bullish
momentum. We can expect the buyers to keep leaning on it to position for a
continuation of the uptrend into the 1.3140 level. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to position for a
drop into the 1.29 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) eventually targeting a break below it. GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price is currently pulling back into the minor trendline. If the
price fails to drop all the way back to the trendline, more aggressive buyers
might pile in on a break above the recent swing high at 1.3012. The red lines
define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude
the week with the UK Retail Sales data.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USD/CHF hits key downside target as trading day closes
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-hits-key-downside-target-as-trading-day-closes-20240717/
As the US trading session draws to a close, the USD/CHF has reached a key swing target area between 0.8818 and 0.88267. This level is crucial for both buyers and sellers. For dip buyers, it offers a low-risk entry point; if the price falls below this range, exiting is advisable to avoid potential market breaks. Sellers, on the other hand, aim for this level to be breached, with the next target being the 50% retracement at 0.87777.Should the price rebound, overhead resistance lies near 0.8883, which aligns with the 200-day moving average and the 38.2% retracement from the December low. Breaking below this level earlier today signaled sellers to push further downward.Throughout the day, sellers have largely dominated. However, as the session ends, the aforementioned key area may act as a potential stall point. Traders will closely monitor this zone for insights into the next trading day.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD extends to the upside and tilts the technical bias to the upside.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-extends-to-the-upside-and-tilts-the-technical-bias-to-the-upside-20240717/
The buyers are taking more control in the USDCAD after early declines found support buyers near the 100 bar moving average on the 4- hour chart. The rise has now taken the price above the 200-bar moving average on the 4- hour chart. That moving average comes in at 1.3682 and is now closed support for buyers. Stay above and upside probing can be expected going forward.PS Bank of Canada cut expected next week after tamer CPI data yesterday.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
GBPUSD has corrected lower and is retesting the 1.3000 level
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-has-corrected-lower-and-is-retesting-the-13000-level-20240717/
As London/European traders look for the exits, the GBPUSD has backed off highs and is retesting the natural support at 1.3000 as well as the underside of a broken trend line at the same level. The high price going back to July 28, 2023 is also in play at 1.2995. WIll the buyers come in to stall the fall against the key level/area (expect stops below 1.2995)? Or will the area be broken?If broken, we should see more downside probing on the failed break. Key technical test for the buyers.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
NZDUSD respecting technical levels Where are those levels? Find out in this video
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-respecting-technical-levels-where-are-those-levels-find-out-in-this-video-20240717/
The NZDUSD fell sharply yesterday and in the process tested the 50% midpoint of the move up from the April low and also a trendline support level on the 4-hour chart.The subsequent bounce off of the USD selling has in the price extend above the 100 day moving average at 0.60629, 200 day moving out of 0.60778, and up to its 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and 0.60958.Sellers leaned against that last target at 0.60958, the price has since rotated back below the 200-day moving average, but above the 100 day moving average.So the technical bias is somewhat neutral between the MA cluster but has a small tilt to the downside. Get below the 100 day moving average and 0.60629 and the sellers are more firmly in control. To hear all about it, click on the short video.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis – We reached a new all-time high
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-we-reached-a-new-all-time-high-20240717/
Fundamental
OverviewYesterday, gold reached a new all-time high as it continues to be supported
by the steady fall in real yields. The breakout of the three-month range might
now attract momentum players and take us to even higher highs. As of now, it looks like gold have limited downside but lots of upside as
inflation abates slowly while risks to the growth picture increase the longer
the Fed keeps policy restrictive. In the short-term, strong US data might weigh
a bit on the market, but in the long-term weak data is likely to trigger bigger
upside moves.Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold yesterday broke through the 2430 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) and extended the rally into a new
all-time high. This breakout of the three-month long range should see the
buyers piling in with more conviction. The sellers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price falling back below the 2430 level to position for a drop
back into the 2277 support. Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a nice support zone around the 2440 level where we can
find the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/) of the previous all-time high and
the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/). This is where we can expect the
buyers to pile in to position for the continuation of the uptrend. The sellers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline and
the 2430 level to position for a drop into the 2277 support.Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that it’s now about timing the entry for the buyers as the price might just
keep going without providing decent pullbacks. The trendline looks like the best
place in terms of risk-reward, but more aggressive buyers might just pile in
around these levels with a bigger stop below the 2430 level as this should be a
long term trade. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have Fed’s Waller speaking while tomorrow we conclude with the
latest US Jobless Claims figures.See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Gold trades to a new all-time high and backs off a bit. $2450.10 is close risk for buyers
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-trades-to-a-new-all-time-high-and-backs-off-20240716/
Gold is trading at $37 and 74% or 1.57% at $2459.70. The high price today reach $2462.50. The move to the upside today has taken the price above the May 20 all-time high price at $2450.10. It is a new record high for the precious metal. Spot gold is up around 19.25% in 2024. Since bottoming on February 14 at $1981.40, the price has moved up around 24%. Staying above the old highway at $2450.10 keeps the buyers firmly in control. It would take a move back below that level to give the sellers some sort of victory. Absent that and I see the next target near $2481. The local is congruent with the Topside trendline connecting the April high to the May high (see chart below).
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The USDCHF extended higher after retail sales but stalled at a MA target
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-usdchf-extended-higher-after-retail-sales-but-stalled-at-a-ma-target-20240716/
The USDCHF extended higher after the better than expected retail sales. The move higher took the pair above a number of MAs including the 200 bar moving ever done a 4-hour chart at 0.8956, the 100-day moving average 0.8962, and the 200-hour MA at 0.8970. What the pair could not get through was the highest of the cluster of MAs at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.89778.That MA needs to be broken to increase the bullish bias. If done, the 100 day MA at 0.89986 (call it 0.9000) would be targeted. On the downside, the buyers will be watching the other moving averages for support. A move below 0.89564 (the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart) would hurt the buyers and likely lead buyers to turn to sellers on the disappointment.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Yesterday, the Dow Industrial Average rose 210.82 points or 0.53% at 40,211.73S&P futures are implying a gain of 9.03 points. Yesterday, the S&P index closed higher by 15.87 points or 0.28% at 5631.21.Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 37.21 points. Yesterday, the index closed higher by 74.12 points or 0.40% at 18472.57European stock indices are trading lower:German DAX, -0.58%France CAC -0.1%UK FTSE 100, -0.50%Spain's Ibex, -0.85%Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.35% (delayed 10 minutes).Shares in the Asian Pacific markets closed mixed. Japan's Nikkei 225, +.20%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.08%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -1.60%Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.23%Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher with a steeper your curve:2-year yield 4.419%, -3.3 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.459%5-year yield 4.082%, -4.9 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.135%10-year yield 4.175%, -5.4 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.237%30-year yield 4.403%, -5.1 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.467%Looking at the treasury yield curve the 2 – 30 year spread turned positive yesterday. It is back into negative territory today. The 2– 10 year spread" price level since January 23 at -22.7 basis points. Today, the yield spreads are marginally more negative:The 2-10 year spread is at -24.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -22.5 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is positive -1.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at +0.05 basis points.In the European debt market, yields are lower in the benchmark 10-year note sector:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – The pair is consolidating at the key 1.09 handle
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-the-pair-is-consolidating-at-the-key-109-handle-20240716/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened across the
board last week following another soft US CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-cpi-30-vs-31-yy-expected-20240711/) report and benign Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claim-222k-vs-236k-estimate-20240711/) figures. The market not only fully
priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of
a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a
goldilocks data release with an economy that is slowing but still growing. This
should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk
sentiment. The EUR, on the other hand,
keeps on gaining against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continues to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed without
sending recessionary signals. On the monetary policy
front, the ECB members continue to repeat that they will wait for the data throughout
summer before deciding on a rate cut in September. So, the ECB rate decision
this week should be a non-event.EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD is struggling to break above the 1.09 level and extend the
rally into the 1.10 handle. This is where the sellers are stepping in with a
defined risk above the level to position for a drop back into the 1.0812 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/). The buyers will want to see the price
breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.10 level next. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk
to reward setup around the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) at the 1.0840 level. We can also
see that we have another steeper trendline around the 1.0885 level. Some
aggressive buyers might lean on it or split their orders in half to avoid
missing a possible rally from these levels. The sellers, on the other hand,
will likely pile in at every break lower. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see the recent price action and we can notice that the momentum has indeed
waned at the 1.09 handle. Today we get the US Retail Sales data and that could
provide either a spike to the upside or a break below the trendline and a
possible pullback into the next trendline around the 1.0840 level. The red
lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Retail Sales report. Tomorrow, we have Fed’s Waller
speaking. On Thursday, we conclude with the ECB rate decision and the latest US
Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – The price is consolidating at a key trendline
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-the-price-is-consolidating-at-a-key-trendline-20240716/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD weakened last week
following another soft US CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-cpi-30-vs-31-yy-expected-20240711/) report and benign Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claim-222k-vs-236k-estimate-20240711/) figures. The market not only fully
priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of
a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release
with an economy that is slowing but still growing. This should support the
soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk sentiment. Even if the US Dollar
weakens against the other major currencies though, the JPY in this environment
should keep losing ground and the Japanese officials can’t do much to reverse
the trend unless the fundamentals change. Last week, the Japanese intervened (https://www.forexlive.com/news/boj-data-suggests-japan-may-have-spent-over-3-trillion-on-intervention-yesterday-20240712/) right after the soft US CPI report
as the strategy seems to have shifted from buying the Yen in low liquidity
times to propping it up on soft US data. Overall, the data shouldn’t
have changed much as we will likely need weak US growth data to see some
sustained Yen strength, although it might be short lived if it’s not enough to
make the market to price in more aggressive rate cuts for the Fed on fears of a
recession. As long as we have stable global growth and positive risk sentiment,
the JPY should find it hard to maintain any strength. USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY is consolidating at the key trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) around the 158.00 handle as the dip
buyers continue to pile in with a defined risk below the trendline to position
for a rally into a new cycle high. The sellers will need the price to fall
below the trendline to turn the bias more bearish and increase the bets into
the 154.00 handle next. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the consolidation on the trendline and the support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 158.00 handle. We can expect
the buyers to keep defending the support and position for the continuation of
the uptrend. A break above the 160.00 handle should give the buyers even more
conviction and increase the bullish momentum into a new cycle high. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an important swing level at the 159.50 level. If the price
were to rise above it, we can expect the bullish momentum to increase. The
white lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Retail Sales report. Tomorrow, we have Fed’s Waller
speaking. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and on
Friday we conclude the week with the Japanese CPI data.See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY sellers push below double bottom and retracement level today, but break fails
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-sellers-push-below-double-bottom-and-retracement-level-today-but-break-fails-20240715/
The USDJPY fumbled up and down in most of the US session, but a crack lower was strong enough to fall below the double-bottom and 61.8% of the move up from the June low near 157.364. The low-price extended down to 157.15 which was the same low going back to June 17 when the price bottomed against the rising 100-day moving average. The inability to break below that level and the subsequent move back above the 61.8% retracement, gave buyers ago had to push back higher. What next?The 50% midpoint of the same move to the upside from the June low comes in at 158.238. Going forward he would take a move above that level inclusive bullish bias. Alternatively, a move below the 61.8% retracement and 157.36 gives sellers another shot to push to the downside.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
