this time yesterday, the price was trading at $57,533Ethereum is trading at $2638.40. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2449.90In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are now lowerDow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -20.49 points. Yesterday, the Dow Industrial Average rose 683.04 points or 1.76% at 39446.50S&P futures are implying a decline of -8.56 points. Yesterday the S&P index rose 119.79 points or 2.30% at 5319.30Nasdaq futures showing decline of -51.57 points. Yesterday the index rose 464.22 points or 2.87% at 16660.02Coming into the day, the NASDAQ and S&P are on pace for the fourth straight weekly decline despite the strong gains yesterday. Monday with declines of 3.0% in the S&P and 3.4% in the Nasdaq were a lot to make up. The Dow is working on its second consecutive weekly decline. The numbers for the week are showing:Dow Industrial Average average, -0.73%..S&P index, -0.51%NASDAQ index, -0.69%Yesterday, the small-cap Russell 2000 rose 49.31 points or 2.42% at 2084.42European stock indices are trading higher:German DAX, +0.17%France CAC, + 0.36%UK FTSE 100, +0.42%Spain's Ibex, +0.67%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.18% (delayed 10 minutes).Shares in the Asian Pacific markets closed mixed:Japan's Nikkei 225, +0.56%. For the week the Nikkei fell -2.46%.China's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.27%. For the week the index fell -1.48%..Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +1.17%. For the week the index rose 0.5%Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.23%. For the week the index fell -2.1%Looking at the US debt market, yields are moving lower:2-year yield 4.021%, -2.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 3.959%5-year yield 3.784%, -4.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 3.746%10-year yield 3.943%, -5.3 existence. At this time Friday, the yield was at 3.925%30-year yield 4.232%, -5.4 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.233%Looking at the treasury yield curve, the spreads are showingThe 2-10 year spread is at -7.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -3.2 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at +21.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was +22.5 basis points.In the European debt market, the benchmark 10-year yields are lower:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – The market reassesses the US labour market outlook
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-technical-analysis-the-market-reassesses-the-us-labour-market-outlook-20240809/
Fundamental
OverviewThe Nasdaq bounced strongly from the lows yesterday following good US Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-233k-vs-240k-expected-20240808/) figures as the data
quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-non-farm-payrolls-114k-vs-175k-expected-20240802/) report last Friday. The market pricing for rate
cuts eased a bit but remains quite elevated with a 55% probability of a 50 bps
cut in September and a total of 103 bps of easing by year-end. If the NFP
report was indeed negatively impacted by Hurricane Beryl, which is what has
been transpiring from the data, then we can expect the market to go back to the
old script of resilient growth and positive risk sentiment.Moreover, the Japanese
markets shouldn’t be a problem anymore given that the Japanese officials made
it pretty clear that they won’t proceed with more tightening given the
volatility in the markets. Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq eventually bounced on the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) around the 17400 level and extended
the gains following the US Jobless Claims figures. The target for the buyers
should stand around the broken trendline at the 19000 level. That’s where we
can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to
position for a drop back into the lows targeting a breakout. Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we had a strong resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
zone around the 18500 level but the price is breaking out today. We can expect
more buyers piling in with a defined risk below the zone to increase the
bullish bets into the 19000 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price falling back below the zone to position for a drop back into the
lows. Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that in case the price were to fall back below the zone, we might see a
pullback into the upward trendline. That’s where we can expect the buyers to
step back into the market to position for a rally into the 19000 level with a
much better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking below the trendline to increase the bearish bets into
the lows targeting a break below the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis – A better risk mood lifts gold
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-a-better-risk-mood-lifts-gold-20240809/
Fundamental
OverviewGold erased most of the
losses from the Monday’s global stock market rout as the ISM
Services PMI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/ism-services-for-july-514-vs-510-expected-20240805/) and especially the US
Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-233k-vs-240k-expected-20240808/) yesterday improved the risk sentiment. This might be just a retracement
of the liquidations experienced on Monday as it doesn’t look like there are
strong reasons for a rally in the short term. In fact, the market might
price out some of the aggressiveness in rate cuts expectations which could
weigh on gold in the short term. That might lead to an overall rangebound price
action but in the long term, the bullish case for gold remains intact as the
Fed is going to cut rates anyway. Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold eventually bounced around the 2360 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone and extended the gains into the 2430
resistance. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase
the bullish bets into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will
likely lean on the resistance with a defined risk above it to position for a
drop back into the 2360 support. Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke above the downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) and extended the rally into the
2430 resistance as the buyers piled in with more conviction. There’s not much
else to glean from this timeframe as the price remains confined in a range
between the 2360 support and the 2483 resistance. Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an interesting zone around the 2410 level where the price got
rejected from several times in the past days. This is where we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to position for a break above
the 2430 resistance and a rally into the 2483 high next. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
into the 2360 support. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD moving into a cluster of technical levels. Can the momentum continue?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-moving-into-a-cluster-of-technical-levels-can-the-momentum-continue-20240808/
The AUD/USD is reaching new session highs, breaking above two of four key technical levels: the 50% retracement of the move down from July at 0.6473 and the 100-bar moving average on the four-hour chart at 0.6577. The current price is trading at 0.6586.The next targets are the 200-day moving average at 0.6592 and the 100-day moving average at 0.6600, which is also a natural resistance level. With two of the four technical levels already breached, the question is whether buyers can maintain the momentum.For traders long from lower levels, this is an opportunity to take some profit against these technical levels and re-enter if the price breaks above 0.6600. Sellers can also lean against the 0.6600 level, hoping the price will reverse as sellers overpower buyers at this risk-defining level. Alternatively, traders might hold their long positions, anticipating a break above 0.6600.When multiple technical levels cluster together, it signals a key area with limited risk, attracting traders’ attention.IN a related video, I talked about MAs and the importance. You can watch that video HERE (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/unlock-the-power-of-100200-bar-mas-to-limit-risk-in-your-trading-20240807/).
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF is moving higher on the day, but runs into the 200 hour MA resistance target
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-is-moving-higher-on-the-day-but-runs-into-the-200-hour-ma-resistance-target-20240808/
The USDCHF is moving higher as yields move higher after the "good news" from the US initial jobless claims this morning (down to 223K from 250K last week). The CHF is also continuing to rid itself of the flight-to-safety flows into the CHF seen over the last month of trading as concerns about global growth, and lower stocks sent traders into "safe-mode" (and into the CHF - lower USDCHF).With the good news from the services ISM data a few days ago, and the initial jobless claims today, the unwind is on.Having said the move to the upside today, did run into some topside resistance:The 38.2% retracement of the move down from early July comes in at 0.86683The 200 hour moving average comes in at 0.86828.The high price today stalled between those two levels at 0.8674 as traders leaned against the two technical levels. Risk can be defined and limited against that area. So selling against it - with a stop above - is a low-risk trading opportunity (PS see my video for more on the MAs and their importance by clicking here (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/unlock-the-power-of-100200-bar-mas-to-limit-risk-in-your-trading-20240807/)). Earlier today at session lows, the price stopped near its 100 hour moving average (blue line on the chart below). That was a clue that support buyers were in play. They got the shove from the claims data. In So buyers are making a play but if they are to take more control, they still need to get and stay above the aforementioned 38.2% retracement and the 200-hour moving average. If dollar bullish - and see more unwind of the CHF safety trade - getting above the 200-hour moving average would open the door for more upside momentum.Conversely, risk-focused sellers probably want to stay below the high from yesterday at 0.8662. That would be the best-case scenario for sellers in the short term.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The USDCHF sees buying as "flight to safety" is unwound. What keeps the buyers in control?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-usdchf-sees-buying-as-flight-to-safety-is-unwound-what-keeps-the-buyers-in-control-20240807/
The USDCHF is seeing steady buying today as flight into that safety is unwound with gains in stock and yields moving higher. The panic for Monday is being reversed. Technically, the price is back above a swing area between 0.8549 and 0.8579. The price is also back above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from last week's high to Monday's low (that move took the price from 0.8875 to 0.8432 in less than a week). That retracement level comes in at 0.86016 and represents close support in trading today. If the price can remain above those levels, there is room to retrace with the 50% at 0.86538 the next upside target. Get above that level and it opens a door toward 0.8705.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
time yesterday, the spread was at -12.2 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at +22.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was was 15.0 basis points.In the European debt market, the benchmark 10-year yields are moving higher:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-nzd-is-the-strongest-and-the-jpy-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240807/
As the North American session begins, the NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mixed to mostly higher thanks to the gains in equities. The NZD and the AUD were supported by a weaker JPY and higher stocks. In New Zealand, employment came in little bit stronger than expectations as well with the unemployment rate lower than expectations.. In Japan, the Nikkei did gain 1.19% helping to reverse the USDJPY back higher as well. The gains in the Nikkei continued its rebound from the -12.4% decline on Monday. From the low on Monday to the high price today, the price has risen 15.20%. The not-so-good technically is that at the high for the day, sellers leaned against the gap from Friday and Monday (the price got within 30 points short of the Friday close and above the Monday high). The high price today also stayed below the broken 38.2% of the move up from the 2023 low to the 2024 high at 36022 (see chart below). The price high reached 35849.77. So sellers did stall the rally near key resistance. Overnight, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida eased market concerns by emphasizing that the Bank of Japan’s interest rate path could change if market volatility affects their economic forecasts, risk assessments, and projections. He stated that Japan is not in a situation where they need to hike rates at a set pace and that they will avoid rate hikes during unstable market conditions. Uchida believes the U.S. economy can achieve a soft landing and sees no significant changes in the economic fundamentals of Japan and the U.S., suggesting that market reactions to single U.S. data points are exaggerated. He highlighted the extreme volatility in recent market moves and stressed the importance of monitoring their impact on the economy and prices with vigilance. Uchida also mentioned that there is no difference in views between himself and BOJ Governor Ueda, and that the BOJ has the flexibility to choose when to hike rates in a moderate environment. The comments helped to calm the markets sending the stocks and supporting the USDJPY.The US stocks are also higher on the day in the premarket with the Dow up over 300 points, the S&P up over 50 points and the Nasdaq up over 220 points currently.In the US, for the week ending August 2, 2024, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a significant increase in mortgage applications, rising by 6.9% compared to a 3.9% decline the previous week. The Market Index climbed to 215.1 from 201.2, while the Purchase Index edged up to 133.9 from 132.8. The Refinance Index saw a notable jump to 661.4 from 570.7. The catalyst? The average 30-year mortgage rate dropped to 6.55% from 6.82%, driven by a decline in yields and signals from the Federal Reserve to cut rates. This drop in rates spurred both purchasing and refinancing activities (https://www.bing.com/aclick?ld=e8b3x88oy3unic0SBe8Gc9MzVUCUw48YcDRNYBgNP2bj2VuK_fX38-w4Ii0XInCZA9rCoziFzgANSnmV3foEu73PqNNoWFNPJavybRBLF6h6XShW4QzHU7jZUMCDjPAe1_gTqqGX0EMR0UYc4jtvGorae972WRMxg3X_8PgTUF7QQR9MwM&u=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&rlid=87786daf1b4615451a390b1c420a66a0).Today the
USDCAD Technical Analysis – Better mood in the markets lifts the Loonie
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-technical-analysis-better-mood-in-the-markets-lifts-the-loonie-20240807/
Fundamental
OverviewThe weak US NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-non-farm-payrolls-114k-vs-175k-expected-20240802/) report last Friday triggered risk-off flows.
Things got dire on Monday as the Japanese Nikkei dropped 12% overnight and we
saw a general selloff in global stock markets. At one point, the markets
saw the Fed cutting rates by 136 bps by year-end and some chances of an
emergency rate cut. Although the volatility calmed down a bit and markets
recovered the Monday’s losses, the expectations haven’t changed much as the
market is still pricing a higher probability for a 50 bps cut by the Fed in
September and a total of 103 bps by year-end. The USD gained against the
commodity currencies like the CAD during the risk-off flows but eventually the
mood in the markets improved and the greenback gave back all the gains. For the
BoC, the market is assigning a 95% probability of a 25 bps cut in September and
a total of 65 bps of easing by year-end. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD spiked above the 1.3860 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) on Monday due to the global stock
market rout but eventually gave back all the gains as the mood in the market improved.
The price yesterday fell
below the key 1.3785 level and the sellers started to pile in with a defined
risk above the level to position for a drop all the way back to the 1.36
support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price rising back
above the 1.3785 level to step back in and increase the bullish bets into new
highs. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the spike and then the selloff
which saw the price falling back below the key 1.3785 level. The sellers should
be in control as long as the price stays below the 1.3785 resistance. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. The
buyers will want to see the price breaking above the trendline and the 1.3785 resistance
to regain control and increase the bullish bets into new highs. The sellers, on
the other hand, will likely keep on leaning on the trendline to keep pushing
into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsThis week (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is basically empty on the data front. The only notable economic releases
will be on Thursday when we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and on
Friday when we get the Canadian jobs data. The market will also pay close
attention to Fed members’ comments given the latest developments in the
markets.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Weak US data erases all the July’s gains
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/russell-2000-technical-analysis-weak-us-data-erases-all-the-julys-gains-20240807/
Fundamental
OverviewThe Russell 2000 has been on an incredible run ever since the last US CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-cpi-30-vs-31-yy-expected-20240711/) report. The goldilocks
data was the catalyst for a strong rotation from big cap stocks into the small
cap stocks, and the momentum was probably exacerbated by hedge funds facing
short squeezes on their small cap hedges as yields came down. The market hasn’t even suffered the selloff in the major indices caused by
the deleveraging of Yen carry trades and continued to trade around the highs. Unfortunately,
that has changed last week as we got two important US data points surprising to
the downside.The first wave of selling was triggered by the ugly US
ISM Manufacturing PMI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-ism-manufacturing-index-468-vs-488-expected-20240801/) and then the selloff exacerbated following the weak US
NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-non-farm-payrolls-114k-vs-175k-expected-20240802/) report. Eventually, we got a global stock market rout on Monday as the
Japanese Nikkei crashed 12% in a single day. At the peak of the risk
aversion the markets saw the Fed cutting rates by 136 bps by year-end and some
chances of an emergency rate cut. Although the volatility calmed down a bit,
the markets are still expecting a 50 bps cut by the Fed in September and a
total of 103 bps by year-end. The US Jobless Claims
figures tomorrow will likely be key as good data should quell the fears around
the labour market, while bad figures could scare the market again.Russell 2000
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that the Russell 2000 couldn’t break above the 2290 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) and eventually sold off all the way
down to the 1994 level on weak US data and global market rout. The price broke through
the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) on Monday but has recovered all the
losses since then. The buyers might start to
pile in above the trendline with a defined risk below it, while the sellers
will look for another drop below the trendline to increase the bearish bets
into new lows.Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance around the 2100 level where the price got
rejected from several times in the past couple of days. A breakout to the
upside should see the buyers gaining more confidence and increasing the bullish
bets into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely lean on this
resistance with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back into the
1994 level. Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see the recent catalysts marked on the chart with the first wave of selling
triggered by the ISM Manufacturing PMI and then exacerbated by the weak NFP
report. The US Jobless Claims figures tomorrow will likely be key as good data
should quell the fears around the labour market, while bad figures could scare
the market again. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsThis week (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is basically empty on the data front. The only notable economic release
will be on Thursday when we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. The
market will also pay close attention to Fed members’ comments given the latest
developments in the markets.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
long position if the monthly price closes above the July 2024 low at 11,894. This acts as a bullish confirmation signal.Stop loss: Set a stop loss at 11,840, just below the July 2024 low to minimize risk in case of a false breakout.Take profit: Set the take profit level at 16,647, just below the high of December 2021, targeting a substantial move with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.Risk-reward ratio: This trade plan offers a 5:1 reward-to-risk ratio, which is highly favorable for long-term trading strategies.Monitor monthly closes: Continuously monitor the monthly closes to ensure the price stays above key support levels. Adjust the stop loss and take profit levels as necessary based on significant market developments and technical signals.In summary, while the FTSE China A50 Index Futures present robust opportunities for technical analysis, traders must navigate challenges such as regulatory influences, market volatility, and economic sensitivity. By thoroughly analyzing support and resistance levels, volume patterns, candlestick formations, and moving averages, traders can enhance their ability to predict market movements and make informed trading decisions.==============================================================购买FTSE中国A50指数期货的长期交易计划FTSE中国A50指数期货（代码：XIN9）为国际投资者提供了进入中国A股市场的机会。以下是详细的交易计划和技术分析：技术分析的优缺点优点流动性和交易量：高流动性确保交易执行顺畅，减少滑点风险。市场代表性：该指数包含顶级公司，反映中国经济趋势和投资者情绪。全球可及性：在新加坡交易所（SGX）交易，吸引全球投资者。缺点监管影响：中国市场监管变化可能导致价格波动，影响技术信号的可靠性。市场波动性：高波动性可能产生虚假信号，增加风险。经济和政治敏感性：政策和经济发展对指数的影响较大，复杂化长期预测。关键技术指标支撑和阻力位：历史价格水平可作为潜在反转点。交易量激增：交易量的显著变化通常预示价格大幅波动。蜡烛图形态：观察长期时间框架内的形态如十字星、锤子和吞没形态。移动平均线：长期移动平均线交叉点提供趋势信号。确认策略月线收盘：关注价格是否在重要历史水平上方收盘，以确认新价位的稳定性。详细交易计划进场点：若月线收盘价高于2024年7月低点11,894点，则买入。止损点：设定在11,840点，低于2024年7月低点。获利点：设定在16,647点，低于2021年12月高点。风险回报比：5:1，非常有利于长期交易策略。监控月线收盘：确保价格保持在关键支撑位上方，必要时调整止损和获利点。在进行交易时，请注意监管、市场波动和经济政策的影响，确保做出明智的交易决策。您可以在此查看详细的文章：Forexlive.com (https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/buying-ftse-china-a50-index-xin9-on-the-monthly-chart-20240720/)
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD runs into a cluster of support as the week moves toward the close.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-runs-into-a-cluster-of-support-as-the-week-moves-toward-the-close-20240719/
The AUDUSD is lower this week, but as the week works toward the close, the AUDUSD is running into a cluster of support as the week moves toward the close. The area comes in between 0.6676 and 0.6689.I targeted this area in the post from Wednesday (https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-sellers-push-the-price-back-toward-key-ma-retracement-and-swing-area-support-20240717/)saying:A break... could lead to another multi-technical zone coming into play, involving the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, the 50% retracement, and a rising trend line, all of which range between 0.6675 and 0.6686. Sellers would need to push below these levels to gain more confidence for a further decline. The low price just reached 0.6683 and has bounced modestly. Providing support is a:Swing area between 0.66767 and 0.66896200 bar moving average on the 4- hour chart at 0.6678450% midpoint of the move up from the June low at 0.66865Upward sloping channel trend line at 0.6683.That is a lot of technical support and so far, the market is rightfully so, leaning against the level. Dip buyers can lean with a stop below. The hope is rotation back resistance nare 0.6712 without risk much on the trade. Conversely, if the cluster of support can be broken, the door opens for more downside probing at 0.6663 and then another swing area at 0.66189 to 0.66279 and the 100-day MA at 0.6604. Find out all about it in preparation for the new week, by watching the above video. Comments and thoughts, please share.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD higher on the day. Retail sales weak pave the way for a BOC rate cut next week.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-higher-on-the-day-retail-sales-weak-pave-the-way-for-a-boc-rate-cut-next-week-20240719/
The USDCAD has climbed higher during the North American session following weaker-than-expected retail sales (https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-may-retail-sales-08-vs-06-expected-20240719/) earlier today. This, coupled with a weaker CPI earlier this week, sets the stage for a rate cut by the Bank of Canada next week (Wednesday). Technically, the price has broken above a downward sloping trendline, maintaining the bullish trend established by technical breaks to the upside this week. Earlier this week, the price moved away from the 100-day moving average (MA) at 1.3648, breaking and finding support against the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.3662, and also moving above the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.36867.Despite these gains, the pair remains within the 'red box' that has defined its trading range since early April, bounded by 1.35899 and 1.3803. At some point, this range will be broken. The trend over the last two weeks has been upward. The key question now is whether the momentum can continue to push through the upper extreme of this range. Will the rate cut help or is is priced in and just lead to a rotation back to the downside. The technical levels outlined in this video (and this post), will help tell the story from the traders. The high price today has so far reached 1.3747.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
$12.128bn (expected: $11.34bn)EPS BEAT, Revenue BEATVery confident in outlook for the businessHalliburton Co (HAL) Q2 2024 (USD):EPS: $0.80 (expected: $0.80)Revenue: $8.53bn (expected: $8.96bn)EPS MET, Revenue MISSA snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading down $0.27 or -0.33% at $81.03. At this time yesterday, the price was at $81.18Gold is trading down $36.50 or -1.5% at $2408.47 at this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2466.07.Silver is trading down $0.75 or -2.51% at $29.07. At this time yesterday, the price is trading at $30.39Bitcoin trading at $64,220. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $64,852Ethereum is also trading at $3426. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $3465.30In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are trading mixed :Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of - 91.08 points. Yesterday, the Dow Industrial Average felt -533.06 points or -1.29% at 40,665.63S&P futures are implying a gain of 4.91 points. Yesterday, the S&P index closed down -43.70 points or -0.78% at 5544.55Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 26 points. Yesterday, the index fell -125.70 points or -0.70% at 17871.22The Russell 2000 index fell -41.38 points or -1.85% at 2198.28European stock indices are trading lower across the board:German DAX, -0.70%France CAC -0.66%UK FTSE 100, -0.53%Spain's Ibex, -0.49%Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.70% (delayed 10 minutes).Shares in the Asian Pacific markets closed mixed.Japan's Nikkei 225, -0.16%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.17%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -2.03%Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.1%Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher:2-year yield 4.500%, +2.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.462%5-year yield 4.152%, +3.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.106%10-year yield 4.229%, +2.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.182%30-year yield 4.441%, +1.7 basis points at this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.397%Looking at the treasury yield curve ):The 2-10 year spread is at -27.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -27.6 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is -5.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -6.4 basis points
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – The bearish momentum looks to be waning
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-technical-analysis-the-bearish-momentum-looks-to-be-waning-20240719/
Fundamental
OverviewThe Nasdaq has been on the backfoot recently as the goldilocks data led to a
strong rotation into small caps stocks. Yesterday, there was general weakness
across all the indices although it wasn’t triggered by any catalyst. The
fundamentals haven’t changed, on the contrary, they strengthened the case for a
soft landing. The bearish momentum seems to be waning going into the weekend, so the technicals might
be helpful for the dip-buyers to time a possible bounce. Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq is now near the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) around the 19700 level. This is
where can expect the dip-buyers to step back in with a defined risk below the
trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish
bets into the next major trendline around the 19000 level. Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a good resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone now around the 20300 level
where we can find the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/) of the downward trendline and the
50% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level. If we get a bounce from the
19700 support zone, we can expect the sellers to step in around the downward
trendline to position for a break below the 19700 support with a better risk to
reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking above the downward trendline and the 20300 resistance to increase the
bullish bets into new highs.Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum. The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to push towards the
break below the 19700 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking above the trendline and the most recent lower high at 19980
to gain even more confidence and increase the bullish bets into the 20300
resistance. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
The CHF is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-chf-is-the-strongest-and-the-aud-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240809/
The CHF is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins.Today at 8:30 AM ET, Canada will release its July jobs report. The expectation are for:Employment Change (Jul): Estimate 22.5k, Prior -1.4kUnemployment Rate (Jul): Estimate 6.5%, Prior 6.4%Full-Time Employment Change (Jul): Prior -3.4kPart-Time Employment Change (Jul): Prior 1.9kParticipation Rate (Jul): Prior 65.3%Average Hourly Wages (Permanent, Jul): Prior 5.60%Adam posts this morning that the data will be releases at a time where the consumer is cutting back spending despite the 2 successive cuts in rates by the BOC. "Canadian consumers are pulling back this summer after years of pandemic revenge spending," RBC writes, nothing that sales have fallen in six of the past seven months.In other central bank news, Boston Fed President Susan Collins indicated that it may soon be appropriate to ease monetary policy, contingent on data aligning with current expectations. She emphasized that the timing and pace of any rate cuts will be data-dependent, suggesting a cautious approach to policy adjustments.Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid also spoke and stated that if inflation continues to come in low, it would be appropriate to lower interest rates, although he emphasized that the Fed is not yet at its 2% inflation target. Schmid noted that the current Fed policy stance isn't overly restrictive and stressed the importance of staying focused on the Fed's dual mandate. He acknowledged a noticeable cooling in the labor market, which he views as necessary for easing inflation, but cautioned that the path of Fed policy will be determined by ongoing data and the overall strength of the economy.Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee emphasized the need for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to see more employment data before making policy decisions. He noted that while the economy is returning to more normal conditions, the Fed’s policy remains tight. Goolsbee highlighted that the Fed monitors markets but does not let them dictate policy. He raised concerns about whether the job market will stabilize or deteriorate further, stressing the importance of looking beyond just payroll data and single-month figures. Goolsbee acknowledged that any Fed action will likely displease some parties, but the Fed’s role is to clearly outline the criteria for adjusting rates, independent of political considerations.The Fed passed on a rate change last week with the next meeting on September 18. The story remains they are watching the data. Latar this month the Jackson Hole Conference will take place (August 22 -24). The door will be there for the Fed Chair to pave the way (explicitly) for a change, but he may choose to keep the storyline the same. Next week US CPI and PPI data will be released along with retail sales but he will not have the current PCE data as it won't be released until later in the month. .In an aside, in a speech at Mara Lago, GOP candidate Trump, said that if elected president he should have say on US interest-rate policy saying:“I feel the president should have at least (a) say in there. Yeah, I feel that strongly. I think that in my case, I made a lot of money, I was very successful, and I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman.”HMMMMMA snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading up $0.47 or 0.62% at $76.66. At this time yesterday, the price was at $75.31Gold is trading near unchanged at $2426.42. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2408.50Silver is trading down five cents or -0.20% to $27.48. At this time yesterday, the price is trading at $26.96Bitcoin is trading at $60,693. At
Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Good jobless claims quell the fears
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/russell-2000-technical-analysis-good-jobless-claims-quell-the-fears-20240809/
Fundamental
OverviewThe Russell 2000 bounced strongly from the lows yesterday following good US
Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-233k-vs-240k-expected-20240808/) figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the
labour market after the weak US
NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-non-farm-payrolls-114k-vs-175k-expected-20240802/) report last Friday. The market pricing for rate
cuts eased a bit but remains quite elevated with a 55% probability of a 50 bps
cut in September and a total of 103 bps of easing by year-end. If the NFP
report was indeed negatively impacted by Hurricane Beryl, which is what has
been transpiring from the data, then we can expect the market to go back to the
old script of resilient growth and positive risk sentiment.Moreover, the Japanese
markets shouldn’t be a problem anymore given that the Japanese officials made
it pretty clear that they won’t proceed with more tightening given the
volatility in the markets. Russell 2000
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that the Russell 2000 bounced on the swing low level at 1994 and extended
the gains to rise back above the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/). This might have been just a
fakeout which could turn into a strong bullish signal. The buyers should start to
pile in above the trendline with a defined risk below it, while the sellers
will look for another drop below the trendline to target the 1994 level and a
break below it. Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
around the 2100 level where the price got rejected from several times in the
past days. A breakout to the upside should see the buyers gaining more
confidence and increasing the bullish bets into new highs. The sellers, on the
other hand, will likely lean on this resistance with a defined risk above it to
position for a drop back into the 1994 level. Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent rangebound price action as the market waited for
good news to gain more confidence. We will see in the next days if the market
manages to break to the upside and rally to new highs. The red lines define the
average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
S&P index has its best day since November 2022. Happy days are here again.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-index-has-its-best-day-since-november-2022-happy-days-are-here-again-20240808/
The scare for lower growth and increasing unemployment was lessened today after initial jobless claims came in lower-than-expected 233K versus 250K last week. Maybe the employment picture is not so alarming after all.If bad data is bad for the market, good data has to be good for the market, and that is what we saw in the US stock indices today: The S&P index had its best day since November 2022. That comes after having its worst day going back to September 2022 just on MondayThe NASDAQ index had it's best day since February of this year with a gain of 2.87%, but that comes after falling -3.43% MondayThe final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average average rose 683.04 points or 1.76% at 39446.50S&P index rose 119.79 points or 2.30% at 5319.30.NASDAQ index rose 464.22 points or 2.87% at 16660.02The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 49.31 points or 2.42% at 2084.42.Although solid gains today, the major indices are still down for the week with one day remaining: Dow Industrial Average average, -0.73%..S&P index, -0.51%NASDAQ index, -0.69%Both the S&P and NASDAQ are working on their fourth straight week to the downside if they can't make up the shortfall on Friday. The good news for the S&P from a technical perspective is it is closing above its 100-day MA at 5310.65 (blue line on the chart below). Last Friday, the price tested that moving average but bounced into the close. Getting back above is bullish. The good new technically for the Nasdaq is it is closing back above a swing area (high at 16538. The price remains below the 100 day MA at 16886.75 though. I will be a believing in and about four units willFor today though, happy days are here again.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD price action continues to find support buyers near retracement and MA support
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-price-action-continues-to-find-support-buyers-near-retracement-and-ma-support-20240808/
The USDCAD shifted its technical bias to the downside yesterday after re-entering the “red box” and breaking below a swing area near the top of this range (between 1.3784 and 1.3803). The “red box” largely defined the trading range from mid-April to mid-July, before the price broke higher, reaching the year’s high at 1.39458.Yesterday’s decline also saw the pair fall below the 50% midpoint of the move from the July low to Monday’s high near 1.39458. This midpoint level is at 1.37669. However, the selling found support, with buyers stepping in near the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and the 61.8% retracement of the same move higher from the July low, around 1.37247.Since then, the price has been oscillating between the 50% midpoint at 1.37669 and the 61.8% retracement/200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.37247. Buyers and sellers are currently in a standoff, awaiting the next significant move.In this video, I outline the price action and technical levels in play and explain the reasoning behind these movements.PS. The 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart did it's job.In my video yesterday titled "Unlock the power of the 100/200 bar MAs to limit risk in your trading", I talked about this dynamic.. It also explains my mindset seen in my posts and in my videos.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – All eyes on the US jobless claims today
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-all-eyes-on-the-us-jobless-claims-today-20240808/
Fundamental
OverviewThe Yen lost some ground
this week as the market stabilised after the strong rout seen on Monday. Yesterday,
we saw some more weakening as BoJ’s
Uchida (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bojs-uchida-markets-are-still-volatile-so-it-is-unclear-how-that-will-affect-outlook-20240807/) delivered some dovish comments citing the recent volatility in the
markets. That helped the global sentiment a bit, but most of the gains were
erased soon after. The market is still pricing
a 50 bps cut in September and a total of 110 bps of easing by year-end for the
Fed, while the chances for another BoJ rate hike remain low with just 7 bps of
tightening priced in by year-end.In the American session we
will get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Given the market’s sensitivity
to weak releases, if we get bad data, we might see some more risk-off flows coming
into the market. On the other hand, good figures could see the risk sentiment improving.USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY bounced around the 142.00 handle and pulled back to the 148.00
handle near the broken trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/).
The sellers stepped in around the trendline to position for a drop into the
140.20 level. If we were to get another flush lower, the buyers will likely
step in around the 140.20 level with a defined risk below it to position for a
rally into new highs.USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price recently broke above the minor downward trendline and
extended the rally as the buyers increased the bullish bets and we got some dovish
comments from BoJ’s Uchida. The natural target should be the major downward
trendline around the 150.00 handle. If we get there, the sellers will likely
lean on the trendline to position for a drop into the 140.00 handle with a much
better risk to reward setup.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price today broke below the upward trendline. That’s generally a
sign of a change in momentum, so we might see some more selling pressure coming
into the market. The sellers will likely
pile in around these level to position for a drop into the 144.00 handle, while
the buyers will want to see the price rising back above the trendline to target
a rally into the 150.00 handle. Watch out for the US Jobless Claims today as there’s
a very high chance that it’s going to move the market a lot. The red lines
define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures which will likely be a
strong market moving release given the market’s focus on the labour market. The
market will also pay close attention to Fed members’ comments with Fed’s Barkin
scheduled to speak later in the day.See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for Aug 7 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-aug-7-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20240807/
In the kickstart video for August 7, I take a look at three the major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - from a technical perspective. In the EURUSD, the price action is up-and-down, with support holding against the low from yesterday and above its rising 100-hour moving average at 1.0894 and it 50% midpoint of the move up from last week's load to the high-priced this week. That level comes in a 1.0892. The combination is key support today and going forward. On the top side, 1.0942 – 1.0948 in the next key target to get to and through to increase the bullish bias.In the USDJPY, the price moved higher as BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida eased market concerns by emphasizing that the Bank of Japan’s interest rate path could change if market volatility affects their economic forecasts, risk assessments, and projections. He stated that Japan is not in a situation where they need to hike rates at a set pace and that they will avoid rate hikes during unstable market conditions. The move higher to the price above a swing area between 145.89 and 146.514. Also within that area in the 100 hour moving average at 146.306. Staying above in the short term would keep the buyers in play for further upside corrective price action.The GBPUSD moved down yesterday and in the process tested it 50% midpoint target of the move up from the April low at 1.2671. Although the price fell below its 100-day moving average of 1.2687, that moving average did hold support in trading today before moving to new session highs in the late London morning/early US session. Topside resistance comes between 1.2754 and 1.2777
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
weekly oil inventory data will be released. The estimates are for crude stocks to show a drawdown of -0.700M barrels and gasoline to show a drawdown of -0.986M. The price of crude is currently at $74.72 up $1.50 on the day. Late yesterday, the private data showed (https://www.forexlive.com/news/private-survey-of-oil-inventories-shows-small-headline-crude-build-vs-small-draw-expected-20240806/):Crude Oil: Increased by 180,000 barrelsGasoline: Increased by 3.31 million barrelsDistillates: Increased by 1.22 million barrelsCushing: Increased by 1.07 million barrelsStrategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): Increased by 700,000 barrelsAs mentioned the NZDUSD is higher as employment data was better than expectations (but weaker than prior quarter). Higher stocks also helped to support the currency. . Labour Cost Index (YoY): Increased by 3.6%, slightly above the expected 3.5% but below the prior 3.8%.Labour Cost Index (QoQ): Rose by 0.9%, higher than the 0.8 expectedParticipation Rate: increased to 71.7%, versus 71.5% last month and 71.3% expectedEmployment Change: Improved by 0.4%, significantly better than the expected -0.2% and the prior -0.2%.Unemployment Rate: Came in at 4.6%, slightly below the expected 4.7% but higher than the prior 4.3%.Looking at the NZDUSD, the price is approaching key resistance between 0.6032 and 0.6036 where both the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 100-day moving average are located (see chart below). I would expect sellers against that area if approached. The price broke above its 100 bar moving average and 38.2% retracement earlier in the day and also above the 50% midpoint the of the natural support at 0.6000. That level is now close support - and did hold support on a corrective move today (see the 50% level on the chart below).Today the economic calendar in light in the US with consumer credit the only release at 3 PM ET. The U.S. Treasury will auction 10 year notes at 1 PM:A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading up $1.65 or 2.24% at $74.84. At this time yesterday, the price was at $72.84Gold is trading up $13.80 or 0.58% at $2402. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2411.30Silver is trading up $0.15 or 0.55% or $27.11.. At this time yesterday, the price is trading at $27.03Bitcoin is trading at $56,929. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $55,215.Ethereum is trading at $2469.70. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2459.20.In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are higher.Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 290 points. Yesterday, the Dow Industrial Average gained 294.39 points or 0.76% at 38997.67S&P futures are implying a gain of 52 points. Yesterday the S&P index gained 53.70 points or 1.04% at 5240.04Nasdaq futures are implying gain of 217 points. Yesterday the index gained 166.77 points or 1.03% at 16366.85The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 25.14 points or 1.23% at 2064.30 yesterday.European stock indices are trading higherGerman DAX, +1.10%France CAC, +1.40%UK FTSE 100, +1.12%Spain's Ibex, +1.61%Italy's FTSE MIB, +1.85% (delayed 10 minutes).Shares in the Asian Pacific markets closed higher helped by comments from BOJ Uchida. Other indices in the Far East were higher:Japan's Nikkei 225, +1.19%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.09%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +1.38%Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.25%Looking at the US debt market, yields are moving higher:2-year yield 4.005%, +2.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 3.964%5-year yield 3.767%, +3.8 basis points at this time yesterday, the yield was at 3.695%10-year yield 3.931%, +4.4 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 3.840%30-year yield 4.227%, +5.1 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.11%Looking at the treasury yield curve, the spreads are steepening with the 2– 10 year spread only negative by -7.1 basis pointsThe 2-10 year spread is at -7.1 basis points. At this
Читать полностью…
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The risk sentiment remains fragile
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-technical-analysis-the-risk-sentiment-remains-fragile-20240807/
Fundamental
OverviewThe weak US NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-non-farm-payrolls-114k-vs-175k-expected-20240802/) report last Friday triggered risk-off flows.
Things got dire on Monday as the Japanese Nikkei dropped 12% overnight and we
saw a general selloff in global stock markets. At one point, the markets
saw the Fed cutting rates by 136 bps by year-end and some chances of an
emergency rate cut. Although the volatility calmed down a bit and markets
recovered the Monday’s losses, the expectations haven’t changed much as the
market is still pricing a higher probability for a 50 bps cut by the Fed in
September and a total of 103 bps by year-end. The GBP gained against the
USD on Friday due to the aggressive rate cuts pricing for the Fed but
eventually gave way to the greenback as the risk-off intensified on Monday
morning. We had another selloff on Tuesday morning although there wasn’t any
clear catalyst. The sentiment is still fragile, and flows are dominating the
price action.GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD dropped below the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) and extended the selloff into the
1.2677 level as the bearish momentum increased. The natural target for the
sellers should be the swing low level at 1.2615. If the price gets there, we
can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to
position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.25
handle next.GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum.
The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for further downside,
while the buyers will want to see the price breaking above the trendline to
regain some control and pile in for new highs. GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a decent resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
around the 1.2720 level where the price got rejected from several times. The
buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally into
the downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely lean on it
to position for a drop into the 1.2615 level. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsThis week (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is basically empty on the data front. The only notable economic
releases will be on Thursday when we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures.
The market will also pay close attention to Fed members’ comments given the
latest developments in the markets.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – The CHF surges on risk-off flows
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-technical-analysis-the-chf-surges-on-risk-off-flows-20240807/
Fundamental
OverviewThe weak US NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-non-farm-payrolls-114k-vs-175k-expected-20240802/) report last Friday triggered risk-off flows.
Things got dire on Monday as the Japanese Nikkei dropped 12% overnight and we
saw a general selloff in global stock markets. At one point, the markets
saw the Fed cutting rates by 136 bps by year-end and some chances of an
emergency rate cut. Although the volatility calmed down a bit and markets
recovered the Monday’s losses, the expectations haven’t changed much as the
market is still pricing a higher probability for a 50 bps cut by the Fed in
September and a total of 103 bps by year-end. The CHF gained against the
USD both because of the aggressive rate cuts pricing for the Fed and the
risk-off flows. USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF dropped all the way down to the 0.8555 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) and even spiked below it on Monday due to the
global stock market rout. The pair recovered all the losses since Monday and it’s
now trading around the 0.8555 level. The buyers will likely pile
in around these levels with a defined risk below the 0.8555 support to position
for a pullback into the 0.8730 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the
0.8333 level next. USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) defining the current bullish
momentum. This might even turn into a bearish
flag (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/) but we will need a break below the trendline and the 0.85 handle to
confirm it. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline to position for new
highs, while the sellers will look for a breakout to the downside.USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price has been printing higher highs and higher lows on this
timeframe as the mood in the markets slowly improved in the last two days. The
red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsThis week (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is basically empty on the data front. The only notable economic release
will be on Thursday when we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. The
market will also pay close attention to Fed members’ comments given the latest
developments in the markets.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis – The global market rout sends gold lower
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-the-global-market-rout-sends-gold-lower-20240807/
Fundamental
OverviewThe global market rout on
Monday eventually weighed on gold. The reasons for the drop lie in the movement
of real yields and liquidations due to the need of cash in extreme scenarios.
In the big picture, real yields are falling, which is a good thing for gold, but
in extreme cases when inflation expectations fall faster than nominal yields,
real yields can rise and hurt gold. This is something that
happened in the last two recessions. An aggressive stock market selloff like we’ve
seen on Monday generally triggers such dynamics. Things stabilised since then
and the market is now consolidating around a support zone. Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold is now trading in a tighter range between the 2360 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
and the 2430 resistance. We can expect the buyers to step in around the support
to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 2277
support next.Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price recently broke below the upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) and we saw a quick move lower as
the sellers piled in and the buyers folded. We now have a downward trendline
defining the current bearish momentum. The buyers will want to see
the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the 2483 high. The
sellers, on the other hand, will likely keep on leaning on the trendline to
position for a break below the 2360 support zone. Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price is testing the trendline at the moment. What happens here
will likely decide where the price is going to go in the next days. A break to
the upside should see a rally into new highs, while a strong rejection should lead
to a drop into the 2350 level next. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsThis week (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is basically empty on the data front. The main event will be the US
Jobless Claims release tomorrow. The market will also pay close attention to
Fed members’ comments given the latest developments in the markets and the
economic data.See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Buying FTSE China A50 index (XIN9) on the monthly chart
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/buying-ftse-china-a50-index-xin9-on-the-monthly-chart-20240720/
FTSE China A50 Index Futures: A practical guide for investorsThe FTSE China A50 Index Futures (ticker: XIN9) are a vital tool for international investors aiming to tap into China's vibrant A-share market. Traded on the Singapore Exchange (SGX), these futures mirror the performance of the 50 largest A-share companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, providing a comprehensive snapshot of China's leading economic players. Their popularity is driven by high liquidity and accessibility, making them a favored choice for both hedging and speculative strategies.The pros and cons of using technical analysis on FTSE China A50 Index FuturesAdvantagesLiquidity and volume: The FTSE China A50 Index Futures are highly liquid, ensuring smoother trade executions and minimizing slippage risk. This liquidity enhances the reliability of technical analysis by providing consistent price patterns and indicators.Market representation: The index includes top-performing companies, capturing broad economic trends and investor sentiment in China. This makes technical analysis more meaningful, as the index reflects significant market forces.Global accessibility: Available on SGX, these futures are accessible to international investors, attracting a diverse group of market participants. This global participation increases the validity of observed technical patterns.DisadvantagesRegulatory influences: The Chinese stock market is subject to regulatory changes and interventions that can cause sudden, unpredictable movements. These interventions can distort technical signals, complicating long-term analysis.Market volatility: High volatility, driven by economic data releases, policy announcements, and geopolitical factors, can create false signals and increase the risk in technical analysis despite the trading opportunities it presents.Economic and political sensitivity: The index's sensitivity to economic policies and political developments in China can overshadow technical factors, making long-term predictions more complex.Key technical indicatorsFor traders using technical analysis, identifying "tells" such as rapid buying or reactionary support and resistance levels is crucial. These tells often appear through specific patterns and indicators:Support and resistance levels: Historical price levels where the index consistently finds support or faces resistance can indicate potential reversal points, useful for setting entry and exit points.Volume spikes: Significant changes in trading volume often precede major price movements. A sudden volume increase coupled with price action can indicate strong buying or selling interest, signaling potential breakouts or breakdowns.Candlestick patterns: Patterns such as Doji, Hammer, and Engulfing provide insights into market sentiment and potential reversals. Observing these patterns over longer time frames can help identify sustained trends and key turning points.Moving averages: Long-term moving averages (e.g., 50-day, 200-day) smooth out price action and reveal the underlying trend. Crossovers of these averages can signal the beginning or end of a trend, offering valuable clues for long-term analysis.Simple tactic for confirmationA useful tactic is to look for monthly price closes above significant historical levels, such as previous monthly lows. Markets often exhibit "fake-outs" where prices temporarily breach key levels only to reverse. A monthly close above these levels provides greater confirmation that the price has settled into new territory and is more widely accepted by market participants.How to invest in the FTSE China A50 Index Futures: A detailed plan (this is my opinion and trade at your own risk)Based on the attached chart, here is a detailed plan for investing in the FTSE China A50 Index Futures:Entry point: Enter a
Kickstart the FX trading day for July 19 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-july-19-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20240719/
In the kickstart video for July 19th, I take a look at the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD has moved down continuing the decline from yesterday, and in the process tested its rising 200 hour moving average at 1.08794. That moving average will be a key barometer on the downside today and going forward. Moving below is more bearish. On the topside the 100-day moving average at 1.08073 will be a topside resistance target.The USDJPY moved higher yesterday extending to a swing area near 157.45 and its falling 100 hour moving average currently at the same level. In training today the price action has been up-and-down choppy, moving above and below the aforementioned 157.45 level. The price is currently back above that level in early US trading. ON the upside the 38.2% retracement of the July trading range comes in at 157.87. That level was tested earlier today at session highs, and will be a key upside target that needs to be broken if the buyers are to take more control technically.The GBPUSD moved to the highest level since July 19 this week, but backed off yesterday and into today as well. The move lower today got within sniffing distance of the March 8 high. That level comes in at 1.2893. The low price today came in at the natural support at 1.2900 and has found modest buying off of that target area. It would need a move below the 1.2893 level and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the June 27 low at 1.287892 increase the bearish bias. On the topside, dip buyers would ultimately need to get a back above 1.3000 level to increase bullish bias and show that the break higher this week, was a failed one.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF rebounds near resistance at 0.8900, potential for reversal
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-rebounds-near-resistance-at-08900-potential-for-reversal-20240719/
The USDCHF has continued to rebound from its session lows earlier this week, and in doing so, it has moved back above the 200-day moving average (MA) and the broken 38.2% retracement level. However, it is currently encountering resistance around the falling 100-hour MA near 0.8900, which aligns closely with the high of a recent swing area. This level is crucial for both buyers and sellers.If the price can break and sustain above the 0.8900 level, it would signal a more bullish outlook. Conversely, if the price stays below the 200-day MA and moves lower, it would negate the corrective trend and prompt traders to target lower levels again. the 200 day moving averageay
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The USD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-usd-is-the-strongest-and-the-nzd-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240719/
As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. UK retail sales was weaker overnight (-1.2% versus -0.6% estimate)The big news is the global downage as a result of a software update at Crowdstrike that then impacted Microsoft (and others) grounded airlines and impacted many businesses globally. The fix has been found, fixed and although there are still some outages, the fix has been deployed. The report is this is not a cyber attack but due to a software update. If you are traveling, expect delays. ECB comments today a day after the ECB kept rates unchanged and Lagarde kept to the script that rate decisions are data dependent showed:ECB's Šimkus:
Gediminas Šimkus agrees with market expectations of two more rate cuts this year. He predicts that interest rates will continue to decrease significantly.ECB's Muller:
Madis Muller emphasizes the importance of not pre-committing to decisions for September. He acknowledges market expectations for at least one more rate cut but refrains from commenting personally. Muller notes ongoing fluctuations in inflation and observes that wage growth is not aligning with the 2% target. He projects inflation to decelerate over the next 12 months and expects the Eurozone economy to recover in the coming quarters, despite a slightly deteriorated outlook.ECB's Villeroy:
The Bank of France Governor finds market expectations on rates to be reasonable. He confirms that disinflation is occurring as anticipated but predicts a slower decline in inflation. Villeroy monitors services inflation closely and stresses that rate decisions will be data-dependent. He highlights increased uncertainty in economic growth compared to a few months ago. In Japan, the private sector economic council members expressed concerns about the negative effects of a weak yen, emphasizing that these impacts on households' purchasing power cannot be overlooked. The Japanese government has downgraded its growth forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2025 to a 0.9% expansion, down from the 1.3% gain projected in January. However, the economy is expected to grow by 1.2% in fiscal 2025, with growth projected to accelerate due to robust capital expenditure and consumption. Despite this, consumption has been negatively affected by rising import costs due to the weak yen. The government retains its view that the economy will sustain a domestic demand-led recovery, but some members of the top economic council have voiced concerns about the recent weakness in consumption and the pain inflicted by the yen's fall on households. They stressed that the government and the Bank of Japan must guide policy with close attention to recent yen declines.Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida emphasized the need for caution regarding the impact of rising prices driven by a weak yen. He highlighted that the government must remain vigilant about these effects on the economy to achieve a domestic-demand driven recovery.According to a Reuters poll of economists, only 24% expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to implement a rate hike in July, with 76% predicting no change. Instead, 30% foresee a rate hike in September, and 43% anticipate it in October. Additionally, 59% of economists expect the BOJ to taper monthly bond purchases to around ¥5 trillion initially, with 52% predicting a further reduction to about ¥3 trillion by July 2026.Some earnings released today included AMEX, Travelers and Halliburton. American Express Co (AXP) Q2 2024 (USD):Shares are trading down -1.75%EPS: $3.49 (expected: $3.29)Revenue: $15.06bn (expected: $15.59bn)EPS BEAT, Revenue MISSFY EPS view: $13.30-13.80 (expected: $12.65-13.15)Travelers Companies Inc (TRV) Q2 2024 (USD):Core EPS: $2.51 (expected: $2.11)Revenue:
Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Dip-buying opportunity in sight?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/russell-2000-technical-analysis-dip-buying-opportunity-in-sight-20240719/
Fundamental
OverviewThe Russell 2000 has been on an incredible run ever since the last US
CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-cpi-30-vs-31-yy-expected-20240711/) report as the index had its best 5 days streak in 24
years (https://www.forexlive.com/news/there-hasnt-been-a-better-week-to-own-the-russell-2000-in-24-years-20240716/). The goldilocks data was the catalyst for a strong rotation from big
cap stocks into the small cap stocks, and the momentum was probably exacerbated
by hedge funds facing short squeezes on their small cap hedges as yields came
down. More recently, we finally started to see a pullback which wasn’t triggered
by any negative catalyst, so it might be an opportunity to buy the dip as the
fundamentals strengthened the case for a soft landing. Russell 2000
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that the Russell 2000 (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CIPuZN0R/)rejected a resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
level at 2290 and started to pull back. The first support zone is around the 2170
level where we can find the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/)
of the previous swing high and the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level. This is where we can expect
the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally
into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next support around the major
trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/).
Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 4 hour
TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see the US CPI marked on the chart as the catalyst that triggered the huge run
into the 2290 level. There’s not much else to glean from this timeframe as the
buyers will likely be waiting around the 2170 level, while the sellers will look
for a break lower to increase the bearish bets. Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price is getting closer to the support zone. If the price bounces
before reaching the support, we can expect the buyers to pile in on a break
above the most recent lower high at 2226. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
