It is a solid day for US indices. Indices close the day near highs with PPI the catalyst.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/it-is-a-solid-day-for-us-indices-indices-go-out-near-highs-20240813/
The major US indices got a boost from lower-than-expected PPI data. Tomorrow the CPI will be released. The PPI data does not necessarily translate into the CPI, but there is some crossover to the PCE data that will be released later this month. Tomorrow, CPI is expected to show a 0.2% gain after a -0.1% surprise last month. The year-on-year is expected at 3.0% unchanged. Core CPI is expected at 0.2% with YoY at 3.2% versus 3.3%,.Both are not really close to the 2% targets for the Fed, but the next two months (Aug and September) 1% of gains from 2023 will drop out in the headline number. For the core, 0.6% drops out. That will likely get the numbers trending more to the downside. At least we should start be seeing 2.x% numbers. The closing levels today shows: Dow Industrial Average rose 408.63 points or 1.04% at 39765.63.S&P index rose 90.06 points or 1.69% at 5434.44 .NASDAQ index rose 407.00 points or 2.43% at 17187.61The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 33.11 points or 1.61% at 2095.19.The NASDAQ index, closed above is 100 day moving average at 16907.49.Looking at the S&P sectors, the information technology was the biggest gainer with a rise of 3.0%: Energy fell over -1.0%.Information Technology (SSINFT): +3.00%Consumer Discretionary (SSCOND): +2.42%Health Care (SSHITH): +1.23%Industrials (SSINDU): +1.07%Materials (SSMATR): +1.03%Financials (SPF): +0.85%Telecommunication Services (SSTELS): +0.71%Real Estate (SSREAS): +0.71%Consumer Staples (SSCONS): +0.45%Utilities (SSUTIL): +0.52%Energy (SPN): -1.02%Looking at some individual stocks: Nvidia, +6.4% Intel +5.73%.Tesla +5.26%Broadcom, +5.18%.First Solar, +5.04%Super Micro Computers +4.89%Qualcomm, 4.06%Looking at the other Magnificent 7Meta, +2.44% Apple +1.72%Amazon +2.06%Alphabet +1.15%Microsoft +1.77%.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
NZDUSD keeps running. Above 100D MA and 61.8% retracement target. EURUSD/GBPUSD at highs.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-keeps-running-above-100d-ma-and-618-retracement-target-eurusdgbpusd-at-highs-20240813/
The NZDUSD is on a run. Today, the price moved above and away from the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6020. It moved above the 100 day MA and the 61.8% retracement at 0.6036 area, and more recently, a swing level going back to early July at 0.60627. The next key target comes in at a key MA - the 200 day MA at 0.60859. For traders, the trend is great, but there may be some resistance near the 200 day MA at least on the first look. Be aware.Meanwhile the GBPUSD and EURUSD are both trading at new highs. For the GBPUSD it is breaking away from the 50% of the move down from the July high at 1.28537 and above the high of a swing area at 1.2867. The 61.8% comes in at 1.2898. The EURUSD moved above teh 1.0963 level and looks toward the 1.1000 level. THe price is trading at 1.0991. The high from last week reached 1.1008 which was in the middle of a swing area from 1.0998 to 1.10164.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF falls back below 38.2% retracement and tests the 100 hour MA
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-falls-back-below-382-retracement-and-tests-the-100-hour-ma-20240813/
The USDCHF moved above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high to the August low both yesterday and again today. The US PPI data came in weaker pushing the price back to the downside, but support nearly 100 hour moving average at 0.8646 currently did attract some buying. In the short-term, getting back above the 38.2% retracement at 0.8668 would give the buyers the edge technically .Conversely, if sellers can push the price below the 100-hourmoving average at 0.8646, it would have traders targeting the 200-hour moving average at 0.86227. Get below that moving average would open the door for further selling momentum.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for Aug 13 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-aug-13-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20240813/
In the kickstart video for August 13, I take a look at through the major currency pairs - the EURUSD , USDJPY and GBPUSD - from a technical perspective. The US PPI data came in tamer than expectations thanks to a fall in service prices. That helped to send the USD lower. What did it to the technicals driving the 3 major pairs? I will review the charts for those pairs in this video.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis - The growth scare continues to fade
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-500-technical-analysis-the-growth-scare-continues-to-fade-20240813/
Fundamental
OverviewThe S&P 500 bounced
strongly from the lows last week following the good US Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-233k-vs-240k-expected-20240808/) figures as the data quelled some of
the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-non-farm-payrolls-114k-vs-175k-expected-20240802/) report. That’s been also evident
from the market pricing for rate cuts as expectations for a 50 bps cut in
September kept on being pared back with now a 25 bps move seen as more likely.
Moreover, the Japanese markets shouldn’t be a problem anymore given that the
Japanese officials made it pretty clear that they won’t proceed with more
tightening given the recent volatility in the markets. All of the above
contributed to a more positive risk sentiment in the market with the focus now
on the US CPI report tomorrow where benign figures will likely give the bulls
some more support. S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 bounced around the swing low level at 5200 and extended
the gains following the good US jobless claims figures. The price is now
approaching a key resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
around the 5430 level where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/).
This is where we can expect
the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a
drop back into the lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the major trendline
targeting a breakout.S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price recently broke above the strong resistance around the 5366
level and extended the gains as more buyers piled in. The price action has been
tentative though as we head into the US CPI report tomorrow. If we get a bigger
pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
around the 5270 level to position for a rally into the major downward
trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
lower to increase the bearish bets into the lows.S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action. There’s not much we can glean from
this timeframe as market participants will wait for a catalysts or the price
reaching the key levels. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US PPI data. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On
Thursday, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Geopolitics drives the price action
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-technical-analysis-geopolitics-drives-the-price-action-20240813/
Fundamental
OverviewAs many other markets, crude
oil bottomed out around last Monday as growth fears abated and started to
slowly gain ground following catalysts like the appointment of the new Hamas
leader and good US jobless claims.Yesterday we got another
strong wave of buying as we got a Fox report (https://www.forexlive.com/news/fox-is-reporting-iran-could-attack-israel-in-less-than-24-hours-20240812/) saying that Iran could have
attacked Israel in less than 24 hours. Tonight we got another report (https://www.forexlive.com/news/iran-attack-not-happening-tonight-report-20240812/) saying that the attack wasn’t going
to happen today which led to a slight pullback.Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil rallied all the way back to the key resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
zone around the 80 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with
a defined risk above the zone to position for a drop back into the 72.50 low.
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
increase the bullish bets into new highs.Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke above the first major downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) last Friday and increased the
bullish momentum as more buyers piled in. The price is now trading around the
key resistance zone and another major trendline. The buyers will want to see
the price breaking above this strong zone to increase the bullish bets into new
highs, while the sellers will look for a drop back into the lows.Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline to
position for a break above the resistance with a better risk to reward setup.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
increase the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US PPI data. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On
Thursday, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY is moving lower but approaches key hourly MAs
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-is-moving-lower-but-approaches-key-hourly-mas-20240812/
The USDJPY has moved lower as the day comes to a close and in the process is moving closer to near converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages. In the new trading day, if the price can stay above those moving averages, the bias would remain more positive. Conversely, break below and look for more downside momentum on the failure above the 200 hour MA today.Key area going into the new trading day
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The NZDUSD has set close support and resistance to start the new week
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-nzdusd-has-set-close-support-and-resistance-to-start-the-new-week-20240812/
The NZDUSD moved lower in the early Asian session and in the process found support buyers against its 100 hour moving average. The price bounced and moved toward the high from last Friday's trade. That high stalled just ahead of its 100 day moving average and 61.8% retracement of the move down from the July high to the August low. Both those levels come in near 0.60365. In trading today, that moving average and 61.8% retracement work re-approached with the high reaching 0.60315.Seller leaned again.So with the 100 hour MA holding support and the 100 day MA stalling the rally(resistance), the battle lines are set. Get above 0.6037 would be more bullish. Move below the rising 100 hour moving average currently at 0.6001 would increase the bearish bias.At some point there will be a break of the support or resistance targets. Look for momentum in the direction of the break.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The USDCAD trades to a new high after test of Friday's low finds buyers
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-usdcad-trades-to-a-new-high-after-test-of-fridays-low-finds-buyers-20240812/
The USDCAD is trading to a new high after a test of Friday;s low finds buyers. The price - in the process - has moved back above the 61.8% of the move up from the July low and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.37247 and 1.37287 respectively. The next upside target comes against the falling 100 hour moving average of 1.37463. Get and stay above that level would give the buyers some hope after sellers had their shot last week and again today. Is it the buyers turn?
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for Aug.12 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-aug12-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20240812/
As the week gets started, the three major currency pairs are getting their feet under them. For the EURUSD and GBPUSD, they are both trading up and down. Meanwhile, buyers in the USDJPY are pushing to the upside and extending above the key 200 hour MA at 147.07.The EURUSD is trading above and below the 100 hour MA and 38.2% both at 1.0919. That level will be a barometer for both buyers and sellers to start the trading week today. On the topside, a swing area between 1.09419 and 1.09477 are the next key topside targets. On the downside, the rising 200-hour moving average and the 50% midpoint of the move-up from the August low to the August high comes in at 1.0892. That is the next support target. The USDJPY Is moving higher and has broken above the 200-hour MA at 147.06. The price has not traded above its 200-hour moving average since July 11. The hive from last week at 147.88 is the next key target to get to and through to increase the bullish bias.The GBPUSD is trading within a swing area between 1.27529 and 1.2777. At some point the price will move away from that area. On the topside the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart coming near 1.2819. On the downside, the 100-day and 200-day moving averages between 1.2686 and 1.2660 are the downside targets.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-aud-is-the-strongest-and-the-jpy-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240812/
As the NA session begins the AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mixed with gains and losses vs the major currencies. It is a bank holiday in Japan today. It is Monday in the rest of the world, and the economic calendar is light. In the US and Canada today the Canada Building permits and the US Fed. Budget Balance will be released:8:30 AM CAD: Building Permits m/m - Forecast: 5.6%, Previous: -12.2%Tentative USD: Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations - Forecast: 3.8%2:00 PM USD: Federal Budget Balance - Forecast: -254.3B, Previous: -66.0BOver the weekend and into today, there was some central bank speak and commentary. This week, the RBNZ will announce its rate decision with debate on a cut or no cut. Summarizing the central banking views today:Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser, speaking at an Economic Society of Australia event, highlighted the significant uncertainty surrounding economic forecasts. He noted that while inflation is expected to remain sticky due to weaker supply and a tight labor market, there is a risk that unemployment could rise faster than currently assumed. Hauser also mentioned the potential for household consumption to increase in line with real incomes, though there is a risk it could rise more strongly due to increased wealth. Additionally, the trajectory of the savings rate remains uncertain.This week, the RBNZ meets and decides its interest rate decision on Wednesday. In anticipation, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Shadow Board is divided on whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) should cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in its upcoming August Monetary Policy Statement, but with a majority of the Shadow Board members still supporting a 25 basis-point rate cut due to the slowing economy, labor market conditions, and inflation nearing the target band, others recommend keeping the OCR at 5.50 percent. One member argued that there isn't sufficient evidence from economic data to justify a rate cut at this time.Bank of England (BOE) policymaker Catherine Mann expressed ongoing concerns about upside risks to inflation, highlighting that goods and services prices are expected to rise again and that wage growth remains a significant factor. She noted that wage pressures could take years to diminish. However, Mann mentioned that she has moderated her hawkish stance from a 10 to a 7, as price pressures have eased somewhat in 2024.Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, in her speech, emphasized caution regarding potential rate cuts, citing ongoing inflation risks despite some progress. She pointed out that core PCE inflation averaged 3.4% in the first half of 2024, which is still above the Fed's 2% target. Bowman highlighted factors that could keep inflation elevated, such as supply chain normalization, geopolitical risks, and possible fiscal stimulus, while also expressing concerns about immigration driving up housing costs. She noted signs of cooling in the labor market but emphasized the need for a patient approach to policy decisions, warning against overreacting to single data points. Her comments push back against market expectations of a 50 basis-point rate cut in September.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading up $0.90 or 1.16% at $77.73. At this time yesterday, the price was $76.66Gold is trading up $11.22 or 0.46% at $2442. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2426.42Silver is trading up $0.44 or 1.60% at $27.89. At this time yesterday, the price is trading at $27.48Bitcoin is trading at $59,829. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $60,693Ethereum is trading at $2673. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2638.40In the premarket, the
USDCHF Technical Analysis – The risk-on sentiment weighs on the CHF
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-technical-analysis-the-risk-on-sentiment-weighs-on-the-chf-20240812/
Fundamental
OverviewThe Swiss Franc lost some
more ground against the USD last Thursday as the US Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-233k-vs-240k-expected-20240808/) figures came out better than
expected. That helped ease the fears around the US labour market triggered by
the weak NFP report and improved the risk sentiment. The market has been slowly
paring back the aggressive rate cuts expectations for the Fed as now a 25 bps
cut in September is seen as more likely with a total of 98 bps of easing by
year-end. On the SNB side, the market is fully pricing a 25 bps cut in September
and a total of 46 bps of easing by year-end. USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF almost erased the entire drop from the weak US NFP report and
it’s getting close to the key 0.8730 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/).
That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the
level to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new
highs. USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) defining the current bullish
momentum. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to position
for new highs, while the sellers will look for a breakout to the downside to
pile in and position for new lows.USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the pair bottomed out on Monday at the peak of the risk-off sentiment
and eventually increased the gains following the US Jobless Claims report.
There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe as the market participants
will likely wait for a catalyst or the price to reach the key levels. The red lines define the
average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US PPI data. On Wednesday, we have the US CPI report. On
Thursday, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD has its share of ups and downs over the last few days. Seller bang against support.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-has-its-share-of-ups-and-downs-over-the-last-few-days-seller-bang-against-support-20240809/
The Canada jobs data had something for everyone today. The unemployment rate was steady vs. last month at 6.4%, but lower than the estimate of 6.5%. The employment data showed a decline of -2.8K for the 2nd consecutive month decline, but there was 61K of full time jobs but -64K of part time jobs. So the mix was at least good. The mixed report is being reflected in the price action. In fact, since finding support on Wednesday, the USDCAD has had its share of up and down over the last 2 or so days of trading this week. The range at the bottom of the range, has been down to 1.3719 (the low today and low for the week) and up to 1.3765. At the low the price did move below support targets defined by the 61.8% retracement and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart near 1.3724. Although there has been a number of looks below those technical levels, the sellers have not piled-in to push the price lower (and toward its 100-day MA at 1.3690). We currently trade just above those technical levels keeping the buyers in play and the sellers frustrated.. On the topside, the high prices over the last few days stalled near the 50% retracement of the move up from the July low. The high for the last few days has reached 1.3765. The 50% is at 1.37669. PS joining the 50% is now the falling 100-hour MA at the same level increasing the areas importance today and going forward. . So as the clock ticks toward the weekend and traders look toward the new week, the sellers are making a play but so far, they don't seem to have the power to push lower. That is ok as it sets up for next week's trading, and provides traders with some key levels to use as support and resistance. From them, traders can look for a break with momentum.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD backs off from the 100/200 day MAs. Support near 50% and 100 bar MA on 4H chart
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-backs-off-from-the-100200-day-mas-support-near-50-and-100-bar-ma-on-4h-chart-20240809/
The AUDUSD moved to the lowest level since November 2023 on Monday as Japan stocks plummeted. However, after breaking below the low from 2024 at 0.63614, the price could only make it to 0.6348 before it snapped back to the upside and started to start the recovery. Although that recovery had its fits and starts midweek, the pair ultimately based near its 100 hour moving average, and started its final stretch toward a key cluster of technical levels including the: 100-bar moving average on the 4 hour chart currently at 0.656950% midpoint of the move down from the July high at 0.6573200 day moving average at 0.65935100-day moving out at 0.66013in trading today, traders tried to break above the 100 day moving average on a number of different hourly bars, but each little break was met with sellers. Finally buyers turned to sellers and push the price back down toward the low of the cluster of technical levels near 0.6569.The price remains near those lower levels currently. If broken, the rising 100-day moving average is 0.6539 would be the next target. If it holds, the 100 and 200-day moving averages remain as key topside resistance.Buyers and seller are battling between MA support and MA resistance (and the 50% too). That reminds me, I did an educational video earlier this week on the 100/200 bar MAs. You might want to watch it today or over the weekend.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for Aug. 9 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-aug-9-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20240809/
IN the kickstart video for August 9, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspectiveFOr the EURUSD it is trading up and down in trading today but did find resistance sellers against its 100 hour moving average at 1.09283. That remains to keep resistance on the topside. On the downside close support comes in near the Tuesday and Wednesday lows at 1.09029 followed by the 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low at 1.08922 and the 200-hour moving average of 1.08817.The USDJPY moved above its 100 hour moving average at 145.957 yesterday, but remains below its falling 200 hour movie average at. 147.857. The price is trading between those levels at 146.72 as buyers and sellers battle it out for the next control bias. Overall, however, the sellers are still more in control below its 200 hour moving average. The GBPUSD is in its own battle with the cluster of support defined by the 200-day moving average ,50% retracement, and 100-day moving average between 1.2657 and 1.2684 holding support this week. On the topside, a swing area between 1.2754 and 1.2777 held resistance on the bounce higher today. Those levels are confining and defining the range for the pair
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Crude oil futures settled at $78.35
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-futures-settled-at-7835-20240813/
Crude oil futures are settling at $78.35, which is down -$1.71 or -2.14%. The high price today reached $80.11 which was just short of the 100-day MA (blue line on the chart below). Yesterday, the price approached that MA and found willing sellers as well. On the downside, the 200-day MA (green line) looms at $77.91.It will now take a move below that MA, to give the sellers more control. Okay so armed there from the person who drives me off her arm her register enough to drop me often leave and then get a call or taxes are okay in my
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD has extended higher and tests a key target near the 61.8% retracement
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-has-extended-higher-and-tests-a-key-target-near-the-618-retracement-20240813/
The AUDUSD has stretched higher today on the USD selling and risk on flows, and in the price is moving away from the 100 and 200 day MAs. Over the last 3-days, the price has been briefly moving above those MAs and backing off. The market has not been ready.Finally, the price has been able to break more cleaning, and in the process, has moved up to test the 61.8% of the move down from the July high at 0.6626. Also near the level is the high of the swing area between 0.66189 and 0.66279. Traders may look to the area as a level to lean against. The daily moving averages were tough to get through. Getting above and running into another key level, may stretch the buyers confidence. Also risk can be defined and limited against the level. If the price moves above, get out. In the video, I outline the importance of the levels and the risks associated with them.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Major US stock indices open higher. Tame US PPI contributes to lower yields, higher stocks
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/major-us-stock-indices-open-higher-tame-us-ppi-contributes-to-lower-yields-higher-stocks-20240813/
The major US stock indices are opening higher led by the NASDAQ index. A snapshot of the market 4 minutes into the open is currently shows:Dow Industrial Average 195.31 points or 0.50% at 39552.33S&P index is trading up 43.85 points or 0.82% at 5388.23. NASDAQ index of 205.59 points or 1.23% at 16986.20The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading higher by 12.91 points or 0.63% at 2075.00.The NASDAQ index is opening above it 100-day moving average of 16905.43 (blue line on the chart below).Looking at the US yields, they have moved lower after the PPI: 2 year yield 3.954%, -6.1 basis points5-year yield 3.688%, -6.2 basis points10 year yield 3.854%, -5.5 basis points30-year yield 4.159% -3.9 basis points In other markets:crude oil is trading down $0.71 at $79.36 Gold is trading down -$3.60 or -0.15% at $2468.30.Silver is trading down $0.33 or -1.18% at $27.63.Bitcoin is trading at $59,066. So far the high price today has remained below the $60,000 level of $59,931.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The NZD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-nzd-is-the-strongest-and-the-chf-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240813/
The NZD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed with gains vs the CHF and JPY balanced by declines vs the GBP, AUD and NZD. The EURUSD and USDCAD are little changed. The US PPI data will be reported today at 8:30 AM ET (CPI will be released tomorrow). The expectations and prior month shows:PPI Final Demand Year-on-Year (Jul): Est: 2.3%, Prior Period: 2.6%PPI Final Demand Month-on-Month (Jul): Est: 0.2%, Prior Period: 0.2%PPI ex Food/Energy Year-on-Year (Jul): Estl: 2.7%, Prior Period: 3.0%PPI ex Food/Energy Month-on-Month (Jul): Est: 0.2%, Prior Period: 0.4%PPI ex Food/Energy/Trade Year-on-Year (Jul): Prior Period: 3.1%PPI ex Food/Energy/Trade Month-on-Month (Jul): Prior Period: 0.0%.In Europe today, the UK unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but the number of people claiming unemployment increased by 135K versus 14.5 K estimate. German ZEW economic sentiment was lesson expectations and the prior month as was the EU economic sentiment index. GBP Claimant Count Change: Actual 135.0K, Forecast 14.5K, Previous 36.2K GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y: Actual 4.5%, Forecast 4.6%, Previous 5.7% GBP Unemployment Rate: Actual 4.2%, Forecast 4.5%, Previous 4.4% (Positive impact)EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Actual 19.2, Forecast 32.6, Previous 41.8 (Negative impact)EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment: Actual 17.9, Forecast 35.4, Previous 43.7 (Negative impact)A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading down $0.35 or -0.44% at $79.72. At this time yesterday, the price was $77.73Gold is trading down $5.95 or -0.24% or $2465.98. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2442.00Silver is trading down $0.14 or -0.53% or $27.80. At this time yesterday, the price is trading at $27.89Bitcoin is trading at $58,824. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $59,829Ethereum is trading at $2641.10. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2673In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are mixed after yesterday saw the Dow Industrial Average average fall, the S&P unchanged and the NASDAQ higher. Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -28.01 points. Yesterday, the Dow Industrial Average fall -140.53 or -0.36% at 39357.02S&P futures are implying a gain of 12.11 points. Yesterday the S&P index rose 0.23 points or 0.0% at 5344.38.Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 56.97 points. Yesterday the index rose 35.31 points or 0.21% at 16780.61Yesterday, the small-cap Russell 2000 fell -3.508 points or -0.17% at 2080.91.European stock indices are trading mostly higher:German DAX, -0.15%France CAC, -0.37%UK FTSE 100, -0.12%Spain's Ibex, +0.28%Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.39% (delayed 10 minutes).Shares in the Asian Pacific markets closed mixed:Japan's Nikkei 225, + 3.45%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.34%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +0.36%Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.17%Looking at the US debt market, yields are little changed:2-year yield 4.000%, -1.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.050%5-year yield 3.728%, -2.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 3.796%10-year yield 3.890%, -1.9 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 3.945%30-year yield 4.194%, -0.3 basis points at this time Friday, the yield was at 4.230%Looking at the treasury yield curve, the spreads are showingThe 2-10 year spread is at -10.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -10.4 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at +19.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was was 18.2 basis points.In the European debt market, the benchmark 10-year yields are lower:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – The positive sentiment drives the price higher
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-technical-analysis-the-positive-sentiment-drives-the-price-higher-20240813/
Fundamental
OverviewThe Nasdaq bounced strongly
from the lows last week following the good US Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-233k-vs-240k-expected-20240808/) figures as the data quelled some of
the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-non-farm-payrolls-114k-vs-175k-expected-20240802/) report. That’s been also evident
from the market pricing for rate cuts as expectations for a 50 bps cut in September
kept on being pared back with now a 25 bps move seen as more likely. All of the above
contributed to a more positive risk sentiment in the market with the focus now
on the US CPI report tomorrow where benign figures will likely give the bulls
some more support. Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq is approaching a key downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) around the 19000 level. That’s
where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline
to position for a drop back into the lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new
highs. Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price recently broke above a strong resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 18500 level and increased
the gains as more buyers piled in. We can also see that we now have an upward
minor trendline defining the current bullish momentum. If we were to get a
pullback into the 18500 zone and the trendline, we can expect the buyers to
step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a break above
the major trendline with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to increase
the bearish bets into new lows.Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action which has been quite tentative as we
head into the US CPI report tomorrow. There’s not much else to glean from this
timeframe as the market participants will wait for a catalyst or the price to
reach the key levels. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US PPI data. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On
Thursday, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis – Middle East tensions in focus
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-middle-east-tensions-in-focus-20240813/
Fundamental
OverviewGold has been on a steady
rise since the latter part of last week alongside crude oil which suggests that
the price action might have been driven more by the tensions in the Middle East.
That became even more evident yesterday as we got a Fox
report (https://www.forexlive.com/news/fox-is-reporting-iran-could-attack-israel-in-less-than-24-hours-20240812/) saying that Iran could have attacked Israel in less than 24 hours
which triggered another wave of buying. Tonight we got another
report (https://www.forexlive.com/news/iran-attack-not-happening-tonight-report-20240812/) saying that the attack wasn’t going to happen today which led to a
pullback. On the macro side, after some tightening in real yields following the
last Monday’s stock market rout, the volatility in the market normalised and
real yields fell giving gold some more support. There might also be some
positioning into a benign US CPI report tomorrow as the latest US PMIs showed more
easing in inflationary pressures with the commentary noting that “the rate of increase
of average prices charged for goods and services has slowed further, dropping
to a level consistent with the Fed’s 2% target”.Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold eventually rallied all the way back to the resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
zone around the 2483 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in
with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop back into the 2360
support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
higher to increase the bullish bets into new all-time highs.Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price remains confined in a range between the 2360 support and the
2483 resistance. The market participants might keep on “playing the range” by
buying at support and selling at resistance until we get a breakout. Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
defining the current bullish momentum. The buyers will likely lean on the
trendline to position for a break above the resistance with a better risk to
reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
lower to increase the bearish bets into the 2360 support. The red lines define
the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US PPI data. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On
Thursday, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD bounce off hourly MA levels. Can the momentum continue?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/both-the-eurusd-and-gbpusd-bounce-off-hourly-ma-levels-can-the-momentum-continue-20240812/
The EURUSD and the GBPUSD both bounced off key hourly moving averages on the US session dip.The EURUSD bounced off its 100-hour MA at 1.0920. The 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the August low is also near that level. Staying above is more bullish going forward.The GBPSD and soffits 200-hour moving average at 1.2753. Staying above is more bullishThe price action today has been up-and-down in each of these currency pairs. There is no trend. However, the dip against the level, gives the buyers control in the short term. What is uncertain is if the momentum can continue. However, the buyers are make a play.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD bangs against the 100 day MA. Can the buyers break through the key technical level?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-bangs-against-the-100-day-ma-can-the-buyers-break-through-the-key-technical-level-20240812/
The AUDUSD moved higher last week, but after reaching the 100-day moving rigid 0.66018, the buyers and sellers started a battle that has been confined to the following 100 bar moving out on the 4- our chart below (currently at 0.6561), and the 100 day moving average above and 0.66018.The price today is back near the higher moving average target and continues to bang against it. Can the buyers breakthrough that key technical level and push toward other upside targets?In the video I talk to the current price action and key levels in play.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF stretches higher as flight to safety continues to be unwound
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-stretches-higher-as-flight-to-safety-continues-to-be-unwound-20240812/
The USDCHF is stretching to the upside as the market continues to unwind the flight to safety flows that helped to push the USDCHF lower in July. The price bottomed last Monday after the Nikkei fell -12.4%, and the S&P and Nasdaq indices moved down -3.0% and 3.4% respectively. The price has been stepping higher since then. On Thursday and Friday of last week, the price moved up to test the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high at 0.8668, and backed off. Today, the price was able to extend above that 38.2% retracement and is now trading above the 0.87000 level. The next key target comes against the 50% of the same moved lower along with the following 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart near 0.8745.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
snapshot of the major indices are modestly higher. Lastly, the S&P and NASDAQ indices closed lower for the fourth consecutive week. The Dow Industrial Average closed lower for its second consecutive weekDow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 67.52 points. Yesterday, the Dow Industrial Average rose 51.05 points or 0.13% at 39497.55S&P futures are implying a gain of 4.84 points. Yesterday the S&P index rose 24.85 points or 0.47% at 5344.15Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 44.20. Yesterday the index rose 85.28 points or 0.51% at 16745.30Yesterday, the small-cap Russell 2000 fell -3.508 points or -0.17% at 2080.91.European stock indices are trading mostly higher:German DAX, +0.18%France CAC, -0.09%UK FTSE 100, +0.39%Spain's Ibex, +0.14%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.63% (delayed 10 minutes).Shares in the Asian Pacific markets closed mixed:Japan's Nikkei 225, on holidayChina's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.14%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +0.13%Australia S&P/ASX index, was 0.46%Looking at the US debt market, yields are little changed:2-year yield 4.050%, -0.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.021%5-year yield 3.796%, unchanged. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 3.784%10-year yield 3.945%, +0.3 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 3.943%30-year yield 4.230%, +0.6 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.232%Looking at the treasury yield curve, the spreads are showingThe 2-10 year spread is at -10.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -7.6 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at +18.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was +21.3 basis points.In the European debt market, the benchmark 10-year yields are higher:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – The positive sentiment boosts the Loonie
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-technical-analysis-the-positive-sentiment-boosts-the-loonie-20240812/
Fundamental
OverviewThe losses peaked for the
Canadian Dollar last Monday as the volatility normalised, and we got some good
US data throughout the week. That helped to turn around the risk sentiment and
give the Loonie a boost. The market has been slowly
paring back the aggressive rate cuts expectations for the Fed as now a 25 bps
cut in September is seen as more likely with a total of 98 bps of easing by
year-end. On the BoC side, the market is fully pricing a 25 bps cut in
September and a total of 73 bps of easing by year-end. USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD spiked above the 1.3860 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) last Monday due to the global stock
market rout but eventually gave back all the gains as the mood in the market
improved. The sellers piled in at
every break lower and extended the drop into the 1.3720 level. The natural
target should be the strong support zone around the 1.36 handle. The buyers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the 1.3785 level again
to regain some control and position for new highs. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price is consolidating around the 1.3720 level. The sellers will
want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.36
handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely keep on stepping in around
the lows with a defined risk below to position for a rally into a new cycle
high. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the recent price action formed a descending triangle. The price can
break on either side of the pattern but follows next is generally a more
sustained move in the direction of the breakout. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US PPI data. On Wednesday, we have the US CPI report. On
Thursday, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – Waiting for a breakout of the range
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-waiting-for-a-breakout-of-the-range-20240812/
Fundamental
OverviewThe Yen lost some more ground
last Thursday as the US
Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-233k-vs-240k-expected-20240808/) figures came out better than expected. That helped ease the fears
around the US labour market triggered by the weak NFP report and improved the
risk sentiment. The market has been slowly
paring back the aggressive rate cuts expectations for the Fed as now a 25 bps
cut in September is seen as more likely with a total of 98 bps of easing by
year-end. On the BoJ side, the market isn’t pricing any more rate hikes for
this year as there are just 9 bps of tightening expected by year-end. USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY bounced around the 142.00 handle and pulled back to the 148.00
handle near the broken trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/). The price is consolidating just beneath
the 148.00 handle as the market awaits some more data before pushing with more
conviction into either direction. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better
risk to reward setup around the 150.00 handle where they will find the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/)
of the major trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the consolidation between the 146.00 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
and the 148.00 resistance. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher
to pile in for a rally into the 150.00 handle, while the sellers will look for
a break lower to position for a drop into the 140.00 handle. The red lines
define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US PPI data. On Wednesday, we have the US CPI report. On
Thursday, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
NZDUSD finds willing sellers against the 100 day MA this week
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-finds-willing-sellers-against-the-100-day-ma-this-week-20240809/
The NZDUSD fell to a new low for the year on Monday on the back of the sharp fall in the Nikkei 225 (-12.4%). However, that new low only took out the April 2024 low by a few pips, and the price snapped higher. The momentum stalled near highs from last week nearly 0.5982 and after a run back lower on Tuesday found support near its 200 hour moving average, the price resumed its run to the upside extending toward the following 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, and its 100-day moving average. The 61.8% retracement of the move down from the July high was also near its 100 day moving average at 0.6037In trading today, the price stretched higher reaching a new high for the week at 0.6034 just short of the high technical targets. Buyers shifted to sellers as they leaned against the key risk defining level. What next?The rotation lower, has gotten close to the 50% midpoint and the natural support at 0.6000. That is the next target that needs to be broken to give the sellers more confidence. Absent that and going forward, the boundaries are set with the 100 day MA/61.8% at 0.6037 as resistance, and 50% midpoint at 0.60000 as support. Traders can lean or look for the break of either extreme.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF technicals are pretty easy as it trades between MA support and resistance.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-technicals-are-pretty-easy-as-it-trades-between-ma-support-and-resistance-20240809/
On Wednesday, the USDCHF moved back above its 100-hour moving average and although the price corrected lower into yesterday's Asian and early European session, the downside momentum found willing buyers near that moving average level.The subsequent rise on the back of higher US stocks yesterday (and the unwinding of the flight to safety flows in the pair), pushed the price toward the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high to the August low at 0.86683. The following 200 hour moving average (green line) was also in play. Sellers leaned against those technical levels both yesterday and today. With the price currently trading at 0.8641, it remains below the resistance at the 38.2% retracement at 0.8668, but above the rising 100 hour moving average of 0.8585.Ultimately, it would need a break of either of those levels to increase the bullish or bearish bias, but given the sharp move lower since the July high, and the inability to get and stay above the 38.2% retracement, the sellers still have the advantage.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD little changed after the Canada jobs report
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-little-changed-after-the-canada-jobs-report-20240809/
The USDCAD is little changed after the Canadian jobs report. Although the employment change was lower by -2.8K versus +22.5 estimate, the full-time jobs increased by 61.6K. The part-time jobs fell by -64.4K offsetting those gains. Stronger full-time is better than the declines in part-time jobs. The unemployment rate also remained steady at 6.4% versus 6.5% estimate. Looking at the hourly chart, the price did dip below its 200 bar moving average on the 4- hour chart and 61.8% retracement of the move up from the July low at 1.37247 in the late Asian/early European session today, but momentum was limited, and the price is back above that support target. Getting below that level - and staying below - is needed to increase the bearish bias with the 100 day MAat 1.36905 as the next key target. On the top side, the 50% midpoint of the same move to the upside held resistance yesterday and remains resistance in trading today. A move above would have traders targeting the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.37923 and then the 1.3803-09 area. For the week ,Monday's high at 1.39458 made a new high going back to October 2022 but fell short of the 2022 high price at 1.39770 before reversing sharply lower.For more on the USDCAD's move this week see the video from yesterday:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
