Kickstart the trading day for Sept 17 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-trading-day-for-sept-17-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20240917/
Kickstart the FX trading day for September 17 with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. Included today is a bonus look at the USDCAD after Canada released lower-than-expected CPI data, and the US reported better-than-expected retail sales data. The EURUSD has moved down and away from a swing area between 1.1131 and 1.11399. It would take a move back above that level to increase the bullish bias in the short term at least. On the downside, there is support between 1.1097 and 1.1104.The USDJPY is higher but remains below its 100-hour moving average of 141.236. The Asian session high stall ahead of that moving average line, and so far the price rise after the retail sales is staying below it too. Watch for support at 140.714.The GBPUSD at session highs today stalled against a targeted swing level between 1.3221 and 1.3230. The ability to move above that level puts a ceiling in place for the time being at least and promotes a rotation lower with 1.3178 followed by the 100-bar moving average on a 4-hour chart at 1.31465 as targets.The Canada CPI data was lower than expected with headline year-on-year at 2.0% versus 2.2% expected. The price time moved up to a swing area between 1.3615 and 1.3622. The following 200 bar moving average on a 4-hour chart comes in at 1.3623 and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the August high comes in at 1.3633. All of those levels need to be broken to increase the bullish bias. On the downside look for support against the 200-day moving average of 1.35889. I would expect buyers against that level in the 100-hour moving average of 1.35825 to stall any fall. Moving below would have traders scratching their heads.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The AUD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-aud-is-the-strongest-and-the-cad-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240917/
As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest. Having said that, the top to bottom ranking is scrunched together with little separating the winners and losers. The market is awaiting key data is my guess. Today, the FOMC meeting starts, but it won't end (well they will go home after work today) until tomorrow when at 2 PM the Fed Chair Powell will announce the Fed rate decision along with the dot plot and the expectations for GDP, employment, and inflation. In the old days when Greenspan was the Chair, they used to film him walking in the building on the first day of the 2-day meeting, and if he had a briefcase it meant one thing, if he didn't it meant the opposite(such is the life of a chartest I guess... kinda like me sitting in the same spot if the game on TV is going well for my team). The Fed decision is modestly tilted to 50 bps of cuts vs 25 but it can go either way. If the Fed feels that the lagged effect and the delay in tightening along with the spread between inflation and the current rate is too restrictive, they could do 50. They could also do a 25 bps dovish cut and explicitly say more cuts are coming at a measured pace. Or they can go the ECB path and have a hawkish cut where they say it is all data dependent and then do every other meeting (they already are talking about no cut in October). UBS says a cut is long overdue but doing 50 might be a panic signal. Morgan Stanley says a 50 bp cut may trigger another wave of Yen carry trade unwind and growth worries. Blackrock says the pricing of deep Fed cuts is overdone (and everyone says the bond market is always right - unless they are not). Also today, Canada CPI will be released along with US retail sales. Canada CPI is expected to come in at 0.0% with the YoY at 2.1%. The Core YoY was at 1.7% last month, the trimmed at 2.5% est vs 2.7% last, and the Median at 2.2% est. vs 2.4% last. The BOC chose to cut 25 bps at its last meeting. The US retail sales are expected to decline by -0.2% vs 1.0% gain last month. The Control group is expected to show a rise of 0.3% vs 0.3% last month. Ex Gas and Auto is expected at 0.2% est vs 0.4% last month) .US Capacity Utilization (77.9% est vs 77.8% last month) and industrial production (0.2% est vs -0.6% last month).are expected at 9:15 AM ET, and Business inventories (0.3% est. vs 0.3% last month) and NAHB Housing index (40 est vs 39 last month) are all expected at 10 AM ET. The US treasury will auction 20-year bonds at 1 PM ET. Last week's auctions were characterize by strong overseas demand. US stocks are higher in pre-market trading after mixed results yesterday. The US yield are mixed with the shorter end higher and the longer end lower (marginally). A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading down -$0.93 at $69.18. At this time yesterday, the price was at $69.72Gold is trading down -$2.73 or -0.11% at $2579.69. At this time yesterday, the price was $2567.00. Gold closed a record level yesterday. Silver is trading up five cents or 0.16% at $30.76. At this time yesterday, the price is at $29.99Bitcoin is trading at $59,185. At this time yesterday, the price was at $58,336Ethereum is trading at $2311. At this time yesterday, the price was at $2371.50In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are positive. Intel is up as they announced an agreement with Amazon AWS, that they were putting off plant building overseas, that they would separate the foundry business from their chip making business, and other measures. The market is buying it with a gain of around 6.89% in premarket trading at $22.39 (vs $20.91). That is the good news. The bad news is the price is down from $50.29 or -58.39%. A snapshot of
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The pair rallies on larger Fed cut expectations
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-technical-analysis-the-pair-rallies-on-larger-fed-cut-expectations-20240917/
Fundamental
OverviewLast Thursday, WSJ’s
Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was
still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities
to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered
a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces concerning
potential Fed decisions. Since then, the 50 bps camp got more vocal and the
probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps at the upcoming meeting stands now
around 70% with a total of 120 bps of easing by year-end. This repricing weakened the
US Dollar across the board as Treasury yields fell further. Once we are done
with the Fed decision though, the focus will switch back to the economic data.
In case we start to see better figures, the market might start to pare back the
aggressive easing expected in 2025 supporting the greenback in the short-term.For the BoE, the market
sees a 60% probability of no change at this week’s meeting and a total of 56
bps of easing by year-end. Tomorrow we get the UK CPI report and if the data
surprises to the downside, the market will likely see a rate cut on Thursday as
the highest probability.GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD bounced from the key 1.3050 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) where we had also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/) and extended the rally above the
1.32 handle. If the price manages to break into new highs, there’s not much
resistance until the 1.35 handle. GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a key swing level around 1.3238 which is where we got the
reaction to the US NFP report and the following appreciation in the greenback. This
is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the
level to position for a drop back into the 1.3050 support. The buyers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish
bets into new highs.GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The
buyers will likely keep on leaning on the trendline to position for further
upside. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
lower to pile in for a drop into the 1.3050 support. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Retail Sales and the US Industrial Production data.
Tomorrow, we have the UK CPI report and the FOMC Rate Decision. On Thursday, we
have the BoE Rate Decision and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday,
we conclude with the UK Retail Sales data.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – The USD stays under pressure on a larger cut chance
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-the-usd-stays-under-pressure-on-a-larger-cut-chance-20240917/
Fundamental
OverviewLast Thursday, WSJ’s
Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was
still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities
to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered
a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces concerning
potential Fed decisions. Since then, the 50 bps camp got more vocal and the
probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps at the upcoming meeting stands now
around 70% with a total of 120 bps of easing by year-end. This repricing weakened the
US Dollar across the board as Treasury yields fell further. Once we are done
with the Fed decision though, the focus will switch back to the economic data.
In case we start to see better figures, the market might start to pare back the
aggressive easing expected in 2025 supporting the greenback in the short-term.For the BoJ, the market
sees a 96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting and a total of 8
bps of tightening by year-end. The central bank will likely wait for the Fed to
be a bit more down the road in their easing cycle to avoid too much market
volatility. USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY is now testing the key 140.20 level. This is where we can
expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position
for a rally into the 150.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 137.00
handle next. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) defining the current bearish
momentum. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk
above it to position for a break below the 140.20 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) with a better risk to reward setup. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
increase the bullish bets into the next major trendline around the 145.00
handle.USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we also have the 50% Fibonacci retracement level adding confluence to
the trendline. There’s not much else to add here as the buyers will look for a
breakout to the upside, while the sellers will lean on the trendline for a drop
into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Retail Sales and the US Industrial Production data. Tomorrow,
we have the FOMC Rate Decision. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude with the Japanese CPI and the BoJ Rate Decision.See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
After trading to new lows going back to July 2023, the USDJPY has moved back higher.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/after-trading-to-new-lows-going-back-to-july-223-the-usdjpy-ha-moved-back-higher-20240916/
The USDJPY moved to the lowest level since July 31 2023 after falling below the end of December low at 140.248. The low price extended to a somewhat random level at 139.570 before rotating back to the upside. That move has now taken the price back above the end of December low at 140.248. It has also moved back above the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the January 2023 low to the July 2024 high. That level comes in at 140.463. Finally, the price has also moved above the low price from last Wednesday's trade. That level comes in at 140.71.All of those levels are now support for buyers thinking that the disappointment on the break lower today signals a low for the time being. Depending upon your conviction, each level represents a risk-defining level. If convinced the lows in place I would expect that the 140.248 level would not be broken on any sort of corrective move from this point.If less convinced, the 140.40 level can be used as a risk focused level.Sellers had their shot. They missed. Can the buyers continue to probe to the upside? That is what the trading decision is about now.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Buyers and sellers ping-pong between 100 bar MAs in NZDUSD. Traders wait for the break.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/buyers-and-sellers-ping-pong-between-100-bar-mas-in-nzdusd-traders-wait-for-the-break-20240916/
The last two trading days in the NZDUSD have developed a pattern. That pattern is to ping-pong between the 100-bar moving average on a 4-hour chart on the topside (currently at 0.61967), and the 100-hour moving average on the downside at 0.61565. In between sits the 200-hour moving average at 0.61698.Traders are leaning on support on the downside and resistance on the topside and waiting for the break with momentum.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for Sept 16 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-sept-16-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20240916/
FIn the kickstart video for September 16, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pair vs the USD - the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD.This week, the US Fed, Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will all meet. At their last meetings the BOE cut rates by 25 basis points but it was by the smallest of margins (vote was 5-4). This month the expectations are for no change in policy as core inflation remains too high (3.5%). Focus will be in what the BOE has to say about rates going forward. In Japan, the BOJ raised rates at its last meeting but are likely to keep rates unchanged. Focus - like the BOE decision - will be on the expecations going forward but in contrast is the BOJ tilt is for higher rates. Finally, the Fed has a dilemma to go big or go small to kickstart its reversal lower in rates. The odds at this time last week was about 75% for a 25 bp cut. That has now reversed with the market now expecting a 65% chance for a 50 basis point cut. As a result, the USD has moved lower.So what has the central bank policy and expectations influenced forex rates? With the Fed expectations for 50 basis points, the trend is more to the downside. Technically, looking at the 3 major currency pairs:For the EURUSD, it is taking it's technical steps higher. On Friday, it moved up to a swing area between 1.1097 and 1.11042 and found willing sellers, correcting modestly lower into the Friday close . Today, the price in the early Asian session was near the close from Friday, but started to move back higher (lower USD) toward the aforementioned swing area up to 1.11042, and ultimately through that level. The price has now moved to another swing area between 1.1131 and 1.1140, and is finding sellers on that test. It would take a move above 1.1140 to keep the momentum going. Alternatively, holding the level could see a rotation back toward the 1.1104 area once again.For the USDJPY, it broke below its December 2023 low at 140.248 today , and extended to a new low going back to July 2023 at 139.570. Since then, the price has moved back toward the 140.248 level and in the early US session has been able to extend above that level. If it stay above 140.248, that would give the dip buyers some hope for continued upside probing on the failed break to new 2024 lows earlier today.The GBPUSD has been moving higher over the last few days of trading mostly on the back of the Fed expectations for 50 basis points of cuts.. On Friday the price traded above and below a swing area between 1.3128 and 1.31447 and also its 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart near a 1.31435. Today, there was more certainty with those levels being broken and the price trending higher. The next target area comes between 1.3221 and 1.3230. There is some support near 1.31787 initial term technical view today.The USD is lower overall with a big central bank week ahead. A lot is riding on the decisions from the Fed, the BOE and the BOJ and what they say abour future policy action. The technicals will help show the way.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The AUD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-aud-is-the-strongest-and-the-usd-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240916/
As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest followed closely by the GBP, and the USD is the weakest. The Federal Reserve will meet on Tuesday and again on Wednesday before announcing their rate decision on Tuesday at 2 PM ET. A press conference will commence at 2:30 with Fed Chair Powell. The Fed will also release its so-called "dot-plot" of rate projections, and the central tendencies which are the compilation of member expecatations for GDP, inflation and employment. ALL will be combed over in this time of transition. How big or how small does the Fed go?Since Thursday, the odds of a 50 bp cut has gathered momentum and it is now virtually a 50-50 chance (well actually 65 to 35 for 50 - my mistake) .The WSJ's Timiraos starting things off last week (Thursday), saying that the Fed had a dilemma between going big or going small - opening the door for the 50. Later former NY Fed Dudley said that 50 is needed. Former Fed Mester and Esther George also said they could see 50 bp in cuts. Former FOMC Board member Ferguson said they could go either way. Former Cleveland Fed president Bullard said 25 bps is needed, as did Former Dallas Fed's Fisher (before the Thursday shift). The BOE and the BOJ also meet this week with both expecting to keep rates unchanged with the focus on the future path for rates. For the BOE the tilt is to the downside (the BOE cut 25 bps at its last meeting). For the BOJ, markets will be focused on the potential for higher rates (they started to raise rates at its last meeting). PS Japan and Chiina were off today for holiday(s).US stocks are trading mixed in pre-market trading today. The S&P and Nasdaq had perfect weeks with 5 gains in 5 days. Both are lower in pre-market trading. The Dow is higher currently. US yields are lower by about 1-3 basis points at the start of the trading day. The markets have been pushing rates lower and that is also helping 30-year mortgages which moved down to 6.20%. They were down from 7.22% from April. Central Bank comments over the weekend and today (REMEMBER: the Fed is in the quiet period):The ECB met last week, and lowered rates. Like the prior cut, the ECB seems to be "predetermined" (or maybe strongly leaning) to keep rates unchanged at the next meeting (although they say otherwise. ECB policymaker Peter Kažimír indicated that the central bank is likely to wait until December for the next rate cut, stating that it would require a significant change in the economic outlook for a cut to occur in October. With limited new information expected before the October meeting, he emphasized there is no urgency to lower rates and suggested that the safest approach is to wait for a clearer economic outlook.ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated in Madrid that the European Central Bank's projections indicate inflation will hover around 2% by the end of 2025. He expressed concern about persistent services inflation and noted that the ECB does not have a predetermined path for interest rates, emphasizing that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis.ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that recent data on wages and profits have aligned with expectations. He noted that negotiated wage growth is expected to remain high and volatile for the rest of the year. Lane emphasized that a gradual approach to reducing policy restrictiveness would be suitable if future data aligns with the ECB's baseline projection, while also highlighting the need to maintain flexibility regarding the pace of policy adjustments.The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points at the last meeting: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, in an interview with the Financial Times, raised the prospect of faster rate cuts, reflecting his growing concerns about the state
USDCHF Technical Analysis – The USD weakens on higher chances of a 50 bps cut
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-technical-analysis-the-usd-weakens-on-higher-chances-of-a-50-bps-cut-20240916/
Fundamental
OverviewLate Thursday, around 1:00
PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50
bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut
probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered
a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces concerning
potential Fed decisions. The probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps at the
upcoming meeting stand now around 60% with a total of 118 bps of easing by
year-end. These repricing weakened
the US Dollar across the board as Treasury yields fell further. Once we are done
with the Fed decision, the focus will switch back to the economic data. In case
we start to see better figures, the market might start to pare back the
aggressive easing expected in 2025 supporting the greenback in the short-term.For the SNB, the market
sees a 37% probability of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting and a total of 57
bps of easing by year-end. The central bank is not happy with the CHF strength
so they might either cut by 50 bps or jawbone the currency. USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF rejected the key 0.8555 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
and dropped back to the recent lows. The target for the sellers should be the
0.8333 level which is where we will likely find the buyers stepping in with a
defined risk below the level to position for a rally back into the 0.8555 resistance.
USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we had a strong resistance around the 0.8555 level where we had also the
major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/). That’s where the sellers piled in
to position for a drop into the 0.8333 level and increase the bearish bets on
the break of the counter-trendline. There’s not much here for
the buyers to work with, so they can either wait to buy the dip around the
0.8333 level or look for a break above the major trendline to start targeting
new highs.USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support around the 0.8420 swing level. That’s also
where we can find the lower bound of the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today, so in case the price
falls into that level, we can expect the buyers to step in to target a pullback
into the major trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.8333 level.Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Retail Sales and the US Industrial Production data. On
Wednesday, we have the FOMC Rate Decision. On Thursday, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
What are the technicals in the EURUSD saying into the new trading week
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/what-are-the-technicals-in-the-eurusd-saying-into-the-new-trading-week-20240913/
As the week, moves to the close, what are the technicals telling traders going into the new trading week.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD a little higher on the week but gives up gains. What's ahead for the pair?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-a-little-higher-on-the-week-but-gives-up-gains-whats-ahead-for-the-pair-20240913/
The USDCAD closed the week at 1.3558. The current price is a little higher at 1.3580. The high price for the week reached 1.3622 on Wednesday. That move took the price above a swing area with the high at 1.36188, but quickly reversed lower. The high price stalled ahead of the 38.2% of the move down fro the August 2024 high at 1.3633. Not getting above that retracement is a problem from the pair. The move down has the price above and below the 100-hour moving average today. That moving average is moving sideways at 1.35804. The price is trading right around that level currently. Going forward, traders favoring the topside would like to see the price get back above the swing level up to 1.36188 and ultimately above the 38.2% retracement 1.32633. What would hurt the bullish bias is selling takes price back below the 200 hour moving average at 1.3555.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – The risk-on sentiment keeps the bulls in charge
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-technical-analysis-the-risk-on-sentiment-keeps-the-bulls-in-charge-20240815/
Fundamental
OverviewThe Nasdaq has been on a steady rise ever since the last week’s US Jobless
Claims as the data quelled the fears around the labour market following the
weak NFP report. The “growth scare” triggered by the ugly ISM Manufacturing PMI
and the weak NFP report looks to be behind us for now.This week we got some more positive news on the inflation front as the US PPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-ppi-01-vs-02-estimate-yoy-22-vs-23-est-20240813/) surprised to the
downside and the US CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-cpi-29-vs-30-yy-expected-20240814/) yesterday showed some
more easing. That should be good news as the Fed will likely be even more
dovish from now on and the chances of three rate cuts by year-end solidify. Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq broke above the key trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) around the 19000 level this week. This
should give the buyers a bit more confidence to increase the bullish bets into
new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling
back below the trendline to regain some control and position for a drop into the
17500 level. Nasdaq Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a notable support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 18800 level which saw the
bearish momentum increasing on the way down and the bullish momentum increasing
on the way up. If the price were to fall
back into the support zone, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined
risk below the zone to position for a rally into the 19727 level. The sellers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a
drop into the 17500 level. Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on the trendline to position
for new highs, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to
target a drop into the 18800 support. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we
conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Rangebound price action with a bullish tilt
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/russell-2000-technical-analysis-rangebound-price-action-with-a-bullish-tilt-20240815/
Fundamental
OverviewThe price action in the Russell 2000 has been mostly rangebound in the past
couple of weeks although the sentiment continues to favour more upside. The “growth
scare” after the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the NFP report looks to be behind us
thanks to the US Jobless Claims last week. This week we got some more positive news on the inflation front as the US
PPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-ppi-01-vs-02-estimate-yoy-22-vs-23-est-20240813/) surprised to the downside and the US
CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-cpi-29-vs-30-yy-expected-20240814/) yesterday showed some more easing. That should be good news as the Fed
will likely be even more dovish from now on and the chances of three rate cuts
by year-end solidify. Russell 2000
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that the Russell 2000 is trading above the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) which should give the buyers some
more confidence on further gains ahead as the sentiment remains positive. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the
trendline to start looking for selling opportunities.Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) around the 2110 level where the
price got rejected from several times. Yesterday, the price probed above the
resistance following the benign US CPI report but eventually gave back all the
gains and fell below the resistance zone. We can see that the price
has been printing higher lows nonetheless, which signals that the bullish structure
remains intact. The price action formed an ascending
triangle (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/). The price can break on either side of the pattern but what
follows next is generally a more sustained move in the direction of the
breakout. Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action. The buyers will likely lean on the minor
trendline to position for a break above the resistance with a better risk to
reward setup and increase the bullish bets on an eventual breakout. The sellers, on the other hand,
will keep on stepping in around the resistance and look for a break below the
minor trendline to increase the bearish bets into the 1993 level. The red lines
define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we
conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – A more dovish RBNZ weighs on the Kiwi
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-technical-analysis-a-more-dovish-rbnz-weighs-on-the-kiwi-20240814/
Fundamental
OverviewYesterday, the US PPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-ppi-01-vs-02-estimate-yoy-22-vs-23-est-20240813/) report missed expectations by a big margin
triggering a selloff in the US Dollar as the market started to position into a
potentially soft US CPI release today. That led to a key breakout
in the NZDUSD pair which didn’t last as the RBNZ (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-announce-cash-rate-cut-to-525-20240814/)
tonight cut rates by 25 bps. While analysts and economist were expecting the
OCR to remain unchanged, the market was pricing more than a 70% probability of
a rate cut nonetheless.What weighed on the Kiwi were
more dovish than expected central bank’s forecasts for future interest rates
settings. For the Fed, the market is
split between a 25 and 50 bps cut in September and a total of 107 bps of easing
by year-end. On the RBNZ side, the market is expecting a 25 bps cut in October
and a total of 71 bps of easing by year-end. NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD probed above the key resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
zone around the 0.6050 level yesterday after the soft US PPI report but got
smacked back down tonight following the rate cut from the RBNZ. The sellers piled in with a
defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back into the lows
around the 0.5850 level. The buyers will want to see the price rising back
above the resistance to increase the bullish bets and position for a rally into
the 0.6217 level next.NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support zone around the 0.5980 level where the price
got rejected from several times in the past weeks. If we get a pullback all the
way down to the support, the buyers will likely step in with a defined risk
below the support to position for a break above the major resistance with a
better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.5850 level. NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price dropped all the way to the lower bound of the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. The price generally
doesn’t extend much beyond the range unless there’s a strong catalyst. That catalyst could be a
hot US CPI report today, which might push the price into the 0.5980 support
zone. For now, the buyers are leaning on the minor upward trendline to position
for a rally into new highs. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the US Retail Sales and
Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the New
Zealand Manufacturing PMI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – The soft US PPI weighs on the greenback
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-the-soft-us-ppi-weighs-on-the-greenback-20240814/
Fundamental
OverviewYesterday, the US
PPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-ppi-01-vs-02-estimate-yoy-22-vs-23-est-20240813/) report missed expectations by a big margin triggering a selloff in the
US Dollar as the market started to position into a potentially soft US CPI release
today. For the Fed, the market is
split between a 25 and 50 bps cut in September and a total of 107 bps of easing
by year-end. On the ECB side, the market is expecting a 25 bps cut in September
and a total of 70 bps of easing by year-end. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD is breaking above the 1.10 handle as the soft US PPI yesterday prompted
the market to position for a soft CPI today. The natural target for the buyers
should be the 1.1136 high as there’s no notable resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
until then. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling
back below the 1.10 handle to position for a drop into the 1.09 handle. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price recently pulled back into the 1.09 handle where we had the
50% Fibonacci retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/) and bounced as the buyers piled in
with a defined risk below the level to position for new highs. If the sellers
take back control with a drop below the 1.10 handle, the 1.09 support will be a
key zone to break to extend the fall into the 1.0812 level next.EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price yesterday broke above the resistance zone around the 1.0940
level following the soft US PPI report and extended the rally as the bullish
momentum picked up. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the US Retail Sales and
Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
the market is showing:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 147.92 points. Yesterday, the index rose 228.30 points or 0.55% at 41622.08S&P futures are implying a gain of 25.41 points. Yesterday, the price rose 7.07 points or 0.13% at 5633.09. The gain was its six consecutive rise.Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 119.22 points. Yesterday, the index snapped a five-day win streak with a decline of -91.85 points or -0.52% at 17592.13.Yesterday, the small-cap Russell 2000 was higher by 53.06 points or 2.49% at 2182.49European stock indices are trading higher with solid gains:German DAX, +0.74%France CAC, +0.76%UK FTSE 100, +0.77%Spain's Ibex, +1.37%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.99% (delayed 10 minutes).Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixed:Japan's Nikkei 225, -1.03%China's Shanghai Composite Index, banking holidayHong Kong's Hang Seng index, +1.37%Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.24%Looking at the US debt market, yields are mixed. 2-year yield 3.569%, +1.4 basis points. At the same Friday, the yield was at 3.546%5-year yield 3.408%, +0.4 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 3.407%10-year yield 3.608%, -1.3 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield is at 3.636%30-year yield 3.912%, -2.6 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield is at 3.9262%Looking at the treasury yield curve,The 2-10 year spread is was 4.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield spread was +8.9 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is +34.4 points. At this time yesterday, the yield spread was was 41.5 basis points.In the European debt market, the 10 year yields are mostly lower:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Expectations for a larger Fed cut weigh on the USD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-technical-analysis-expectations-for-a-larger-fed-cut-weigh-on-the-usd-20240917/
Fundamental
OverviewLast Thursday, WSJ’s
Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was
still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities
to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered
a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces concerning
potential Fed decisions. Since then, the 50 bps camp got more vocal and the
probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps at the upcoming meeting stands now
around 70% with a total of 120 bps of easing by year-end. This repricing weakened the
US Dollar across the board as Treasury yields fell further. Once we are done
with the Fed decision though, the focus will switch back to the economic data.
In case we start to see better figures, the market might start to pare back the
aggressive easing expected in 2025 supporting the greenback in the short-term.For the RBA, the market
sees a 91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting and a total of 21
bps of easing by year-end. The central bank keeps its fairly hawkish stance as
inflation has been slow to return inside the target range and the labour market
remains resilient. AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD bounced around the 0.6650 level and eventually rallied back
above the key 0.67 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) increasing the bullish momentum.
The target for the buyers should now be the 0.68 handle where we can expect the
sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop
back into the 0.67 handle. AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the bullish momentum increase as the price broke above the 0.67 resistance
and the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
as more buyers piled in while the sellers squared their positions. There’s not
much else to glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more
details.AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The
buyers will likely keep on leaning on the trendline to position for more
upside, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop
back into the 0.67 level. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Retail Sales and the US Industrial Production data.
Tomorrow, we have the FOMC Rate Decision. On Thursday, we get the Australian Labour
Market report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – The greenback suffers from higher 50 bps chances
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-the-greenback-suffers-from-higher-50-bps-chances-20240917/
Fundamental
OverviewLast Thursday, WSJ’s
Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was
still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities
to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered
a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces concerning
potential Fed decisions. Since then, the 50 bps camp got more vocal and the
probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps at the upcoming meeting stands now
around 70% with a total of 120 bps of easing by year-end. This repricing weakened the
US Dollar across the board as Treasury yields fell further. Once we are done
with the Fed decision though, the focus will switch back to the economic data.
In case we start to see better figures, the market might start to pare back the
aggressive easing expected in 2025 supporting the greenback in the short-term.For the ECB, the market
sees a 68% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting and a total of 39
bps of easing by year-end. The central bank members continue to repeat that a
back-to-back cut in October in unlikely and that they are data-dependent. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD bounced around the 1.10 handle and extended the rally into the
1.1130 level on the back of a larger cut expectation for the Fed and a pushback
against a cut in October from ECB speakers. The target for the buyers should be
the 1.1278 level, while the sellers will need to lean on key levels on the
lower timeframes. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the strong rally from the 1.10 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone. The price is now approaching a key swing
level around 1.1150. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a
defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
around the 1.0950 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.1278 level. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support around the 1.1115 level where the price has
been bouncing from since yesterday. A break below this level should see the
sellers piling in with more conviction to target a drop back into the 1.10
handle. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Retail Sales and the US Industrial Production data.
Tomorrow, we have the FOMC Rate Decision. On Thursday, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Crude oil futures settles at $70.09, and back above a key retracement target
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-futures-settled-at-7009-and-back-above-a-key-retracement-target-20240916/
The price of WTI crude oil is settling at $70.09. The low for the day reached $68.68. The high for the day extended up to $70.66.Technically, the price low today stalled right near its 200-hour moving average. That moving average is currently at $68.62. The subsequent move to the upside also moved back above its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the August 26 high of $77.56. That retracement level comes in at $69.94.So holding the 200-hour moving average gave the buyers go-ahead to push higher, and although the price of crude oil traded above and below the 38.2% retracement, the settlement above it gives the buyers some hope that the buyers are trying to make a play. On further upside, traders will look toward the high price from September 5th at $70.78. Above that and the 50% midpoint of the same move down from the August 26 high comes in at $71.40. That level also happens to correspond roughly with the high price from September 4.Fundamentally, oil prices rose as the effects of Hurricane Francine kept nearly a fifth of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico offline. Also, as Adam pointed out in his earlier post (read it by CLICKING HERE (https://www.forexlive.com/news/oil-squeezes-higher-as-specs-bet-heavy-against-crude-20240916/)), the positioning data released late on Friday shows extremely negative positioning in oil. When the open positions get out of line (in this case the shorts are high), it can lead to a squeeze higher, and that seems to have contributed to the gains.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD extends above 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6733. Stay above is more bullish.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-extends-above-100-bar-ma-on-the-4-hour-chart-at-06733-stay-above-is-more-bullish-20240916/
The AUDUSD on Friday, found support buyers at the 200-hour MA (currently at 0.66949). Earlier on Friday, sellers leaned against the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6733. Today, the buyers took control once again near the 200 bar MA in the early Asian session, and pushed the price higher.. IN the early European session today, the buyers extended the price above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart increasing the bullish bias and sending the price toward the swing area between 0.6749 and 0.67604. The high price stalled right near the 0.6749 level. The modest decline over the last few hours of trading has now taken the price back down toward the 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart where support buyers are trying to keep the buyers firmly in control.If that level can hold support, the buyers remain in full control and a run toward the 0.67487 and 0.67604 can be expected. Get above that area, and the door opens for a run toward the August highs - peaking at 0.68232. That was the highest level going back to the end of December 2023.)Conversely, move below and a move back to the 200 hour MA would be eyed on the disappointment on the break higher today.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD buyers have created a floor, but there is upside work if the buyer are to control.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-buyers-have-created-a-floor-but-there-is-upside-work-if-the-buyer-are-to-control-20240916/
The USDCAD has been consolidating over the last 4-5 trading days. After reaching the high on Tuesday and Wednesday last week, the price has seen lower highs including today's high (so far at least).However, the lows since midday Tuesday has bottomed near 1.3564. That is now just above the rising 200 hour MA at 1.35596. That is a strong floor. If the price can stay above floor, the buyers are still in play (at least in the short term). Having said, that there is the work to do on the topside. The price needs to get above the high from Friday at virtually 1.3600, and then the high from Thursday at 1.36038. Get above those levels and a swing area between 1.3615-1.3622 would need to be broken.Finally, a move above the falling 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% of the move down from Aggust high at 1.3633.So buyers are in play on the floor. However, the buyers need to show they mean business by taking out the above levels. Fundamentally, the Fed is in play with 57% chance now of 50 bp cut on Wednesday. That would be bearish on the surface for the USDCAD. They caveat is the BOC has already done 50 bps with more to come as risk of unemployment moving up is real. The last employment report showed a 6.6% unemployment rate. That was the highest since 2017 if you throw out the Covid period between 2020 and 2021.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
of the labor market. Macklem pointed out that the labor market shows signs of downside risks, which could impact the broader economic outlook. He emphasized that as inflation gets closer to the Bank's target, there is a heightened need to be vigilant about potential downside risks, suggesting a more cautious approach may be warranted in future monetary policy decisionsThe WSJ's Greg Ip weighed in with his opinion on the Fed saying:The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 50 basis points rather than the expected 25 basis points at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 18. Ip suggests that the primary focus should be on where rates need to be, which he believes is much lower than their current level. He asserts that inflation is under control and there is little indication of an imminent recession. However, he cautions that waiting for concrete signs of a downturn could be risky, implying that a more aggressive rate cut would better preempt potential economic challenges.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading up $0.52 and $69.72. At this time yesterday, the price was at $68.30Gold is trading up $4.93 or 0.18% at $2567.00. At this time yesterday, the price was $2517.84Silver is trading up $0.16 or 0.53% and $29.99. At this time yesterday, the price is at $28.75Bitcoin is trading at $58,336. At this time yesterday, the price was at $58,026Ethereum is trading at $2371.50. At this time yesterday, the price was at $2348.70In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are mixed after gains on Friday. Both the S&P and NASDAQ are working on a five-day win streakDow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 100.23 points. Friday, the index rose 297.01 points or 0.72% at 41 393.78S&P futures are implying a decline of -4.71 points. Friday, the index rose 30.26 points or 0.54% at 5626.02Nasdaq futures are implying a a decline of -83.22 points. Friday, the index rose 114.30 points or 0.65% at 17683.98Yesterday, the small-cap Russell 2000 was higher by 53.06 points or 2.49% at 2182.49European stock indices are trading little changed to start the trading week:German DAX, -0.25%France CAC, -0.04%UK FTSE 100, +0.08%Spain's Ibex, +0.14%Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.04% (delayed 10 minutes).Shares in the Asian Pacific markets Japan and China were close for holidays.Japan's Nikkei 225, banking holidayChina's Shanghai Composite Index, banking holidayHong Kong's Hang Seng index, +0.31%..Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.27%. Looking at the US debt market, yields are little changed:2-year yield 3.546%, -2.9 basis points. At the same Friday, the yield was at 3.597%5-year yield 3.407%, -1.7 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 3.432%10-year yield 3.636%, -1.3 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield is at 3.653%30-year yield 3.962%, -1.5 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield is at 3.976%Looking at the treasury yield curve,The 2-10 year spread is +8.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield spread was +6.0 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is less 41.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield spread was +38.4 basis points.In the European debt market, the 10 year yields are mostly lower:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – Stuck in a tight range
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-technical-analysis-stuck-in-a-tight-range-20240916/
Fundamental
OverviewLate Thursday, around 1:00
PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50
bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut
probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered
a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces concerning
potential Fed decisions. The probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps at the
upcoming meeting stand now around 60% with a total of 118 bps of easing by
year-end. These repricing weakened
the US Dollar across the board as Treasury yields fell further. Once we are
done with the Fed decision, the focus will switch back to the economic data. In
case we start to see better figures, the market might start to pare back the
aggressive easing expected in 2025 supporting the greenback in the short-term.For the BoC, the market
sees a 25% probability of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting and a total of
68 bps of easing by year-end. Governor Macklem last week raised the prospect of
larger cuts if growth and inflation were to fall more than expected.USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD is testing the key resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) around the 1.36 handle. This is where
the sellers are stepping in with a defined risk above the resistance to
position for a drop back into the 1.34 handle. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into
the 1.38 handle next. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the pair is now trading in a tight range between the 1.3560 support
and the 1.36 resistance. The buyers will want to see the price breaking out to
the upside to increase the bullish bets into new highs, while the sellers will
look for a break lower to pile in for a drop back into the 1.34 handle. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the tight range and the choppy price action. There’s not much
else to add here as the market participants will wait for a breakout on either
side. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the Canadian CPI, the US Retail Sales and the US Industrial
Production data. On Wednesday, we have the FOMC Rate Decision. On Thursday, we
get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude with the
Canadian Retail Sales.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis – We finally got the breakout
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-we-finally-got-the-breakout-20240916/
Fundamental
OverviewLast Thursday, we finally
got the breakout in gold after a softer than expected US PPI report. That was
kind of a strange move but eventually the momentum picked up and we got the rally
into new all-time highs. Late Thursday we have also
got WSJ’s Timiraos publishing an article suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still
on the table and gold added to gains as real yields continued to fall. We are
now heading into the FOMC decision with the 50 bps probabilities standing
around 60%.Before the FOMC we have a
couple of top-tier US data points like Retail Sales and Industrial Production. In
case we get strong data we could see a pullback in gold, but overall we will
likely head into the decision with a 50/50 chance anyway. Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold finally managed to break out of the month-long range and extended
the rally close to the 2600 level as momentum players piled in. In case we get a pullback, we
can expect the buyers to step in around the previous resistance
now turned support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-polarity-20220408/) to position for the continuation of the uptrend. The
sellers, on the other hand, don’t have any level where to lean on this
timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the breakout and then the increase in the bullish momentum as more
buyers started to pile in while sellers squared their positions. There’s not
much else to add here, so we need to zoom in some more to get a better picture.Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/).
The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for a rally into the
2600 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
lower to position for a drop into the 2532 level. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Retail Sales and the US Industrial Production data. On
Wednesday, we have the FOMC Rate Decision. On Thursday, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures.See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Crude oil trades into negative territory
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-trades-into-negative-territory-20240913/
The price of crude oil is now trading in negative territory and $69.08. That is down from a high of $70.32. Looking at the hourly chart, the price action this week did move above its 200-hour moving average (currently at $68.93) on its way to the high today. That move higher today also exceeded above the $70 level and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the August 24 high at $69.94, but momentum could not be sustained. In the last few hours of trading, the price action has seen a steady decline. The price is back down retesting the broken 200-hour moving average at $68.93.A move back below that 200 hour moving average would disappoint the buyers and could see further momentum with the price moving back toward its 100-hour moving average at $68.02. NOTE, yesterday a corrective move lower stalled against at 100 the hour-moving average and that hold helped to push the price higher. I would expect a retest today or next week, would find some stall near that target level.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USD/JPY retraces to the 38.2% Fibonacci level and stalls
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-retraces-to-the-382-fibonacci-level-and-stalls-20240815/
USD/JPY soared after stronger US retail sales but stalled right at a key level.It rose to 149.32, just two pips shy of the 38.2% retracement of the swan dive from 161.80 to 141.67. It's stalled there and backed off to 148.96.The Fibonnaci level is a classic barrier in a bounce from a quick dive and it's not a surprise to see the market take a breather here. If the 38.2% level can break, it should be clear sailing to 151.71 and eventually to 154.09.Fundamentally, I would like to see more help from the bond market to confirm it. US 2-year yields were stubbornly lower this week even as stocks mounted an impressive comeback. That's changed today with a 15 bps rise to 4.09%. If that can continue to extend, it bodes well for carry trades like USD/JPY.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis – We are at a key trendline
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-500-technical-analysis-we-are-at-a-key-trendline-20240815/
Fundamental
OverviewThe S&P 500 has been on a steady rise ever since the last week’s US Jobless
Claims as the data quelled the fears around the labour market following the
weak NFP report. The “growth scare” triggered by the ugly ISM Manufacturing PMI
and the weak NFP report looks to be behind us for now.This week we got some more positive news on the inflation front as the US PPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-ppi-01-vs-02-estimate-yoy-22-vs-23-est-20240813/) surprised to the
downside and the US CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-cpi-29-vs-30-yy-expected-20240814/) yesterday showed some
more easing. That should be good news as the Fed will likely be even more
dovish from now on and the chances of three rate cuts by year-end solidify. S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 reached a key trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
around the 5500 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with
a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into new lows. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high.S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a key support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
around the 5432 level. If we get a pullback from the trendline, that’s where we
can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to
position for a break above the trendline with a better risk to reward setup.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
increase the bearish bets into new lows. S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum.
This is where the buyers keep on leaning onto to position for new highs. A
break below the trendline should see the sellers piling in and target the 5432
level where we will likely find the dip-buyers. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we
conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis – Struggling to break a key resistance
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-struggling-to-break-a-key-resistance-20240815/
Fundamental
OverviewGold has been on a steady
rise recently due to a geopolitical driver coming from the Middle East and a
fall in real yields. Yesterday, we saw a drop
after a benign US
CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-cpi-29-vs-30-yy-expected-20240814/) report which might have been due just to technicals as we were at a key
resistance level or a repricing in interest rates expectations. In fact, the probabilities
for a 50 bps cut in September continue to recede and if we keep on getting
pretty stable economic data, then the market will likely need to pare back the
aggressive rate cuts expectations putting a lid on gold’s gains. In the big picture, gold
should remain supported as we head into the Fed’s easing cycle, but in the
short-term the repricing in interest rates due to better data than feared could
weigh on the market. Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold got rejected from the resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 2483 level as the
sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a
drop all the way back to the 2360 support. The buyers will want to see the
price breaking above the resistance to gain more conviction and pile in for a
rally into new highs. Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price remains confined in a range between the 2360 support and the
2483 resistance. In the big picture, the market participants will likely keep
on “playing the range” by buying at support and selling at resistance until we
get a breakout. In the more short-term a break below the 2430 level should see
the bearish momentum increasing with the sellers piling in more aggressively.Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price yesterday broke out of the recent tight range to the
downside and rallied back to retest the support
now turned resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-polarity-20220408/). This is where we can expect the sellers to step in
with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the 2430 level
targeting a break below it. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price rising back above the resistance to regain
some control and position for a rally back into the 2483 resistance targeting a
breakout. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we
conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The positive risk sentiment weighs on the greenback
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-technical-analysis-the-positive-risk-sentiment-weighs-on-the-greenback-20240814/
Fundamental
OverviewYesterday, the US PPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-ppi-01-vs-02-estimate-yoy-22-vs-23-est-20240813/) report missed expectations by a big margin
triggering a selloff in the US Dollar as the market started to position into a
potentially soft US CPI release today. The UK
CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-july-cpi-22-vs-23-yy-expected-20240814/) this morning missed estimates across the board as well and raised the
probabilities of a back-to-back cut in September. Most of the initial GBP
weakness though has been erased as the selloff in the greenback has been
stronger and in the bigger picture a positive risk sentiment should favour the
pound anyway.For the Fed, the market is
split between a 25 and 50 bps cut in September and a total of 107 bps of easing
by year-end. On the BoE side, the market sees a 41% probability of a 25 bps cut
in September and a total of 47 bps of easing by year-end. GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD is approaching a key resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
zone around the 1.29 handle. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in
with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the 1.26
handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that once the price broke above the downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/),
the bullish momentum started to increase as more buyers piled in. We now have a
minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The buyers will
likely keep on leaning on the trendline to position for new highs, while the
sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop into
the 1.26 handle. GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price bounced around the trendline and the 50% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level this morning following the drop from the UK CPI release. The
red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the US Retail Sales and
Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – Trading in a tight range ahead of the US CPI
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-trading-in-a-tight-range-ahead-of-the-us-cpi-20240814/
Fundamental
OverviewThe Yen continues to
struggle despite the dovish expectations around the Fed’s interest rates path.
Yesterday, we got a big downside surprise in the US
PPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-ppi-01-vs-02-estimate-yoy-22-vs-23-est-20240813/) report and although the USD weakened heavily against the other major
currencies, the JPY failed to sustain the gains.One of the main reasons is
that the positive risk sentiment favours the higher yielding currencies. The
other reason is that the Japanese yields have been falling faster compared to
the other major currencies as the recent volatility in the Japanese markets
reduced the probabilities of further rate hikes.For the Fed, the market is split
between a 25 and 50 bps cut in September and a total of 107 bps of easing by
year-end. On the BoJ side, the market isn’t pricing any more rate hikes for
this year as there are just 7 bps of tightening expected by year-end. USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY is consolidating just beneath the major broken trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
around the 148.00 handle. The sellers will likely step in around the broken
trendline to position for a drop into the 140.00 handle, while the buyers will
want to see the price rising above the trendline to gain more control and
target new highs. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better
risk to reward setup around the 149.00 handle where they will find the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/) of the upward broken trendline and the downward trendline. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets
into new highs. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the consolidation between the 146.00 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) and the 148.00 resistance. The buyers will
want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the trendline
targeting a breakout above it. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a
break lower to position for a drop into the 140.00 handle. The red lines define
the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the US Retail Sales and
Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
