GBPUSD Technical Analysis – New highs post Fed and BoE decisions
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-technical-analysis-new-highs-post-fed-and-boe-decisions-20240920/
Fundamental
OverviewOn Wednesday, the Fed
finally started its easing cycle (https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-18-sep-fed-starts-rate-cuts-with-a-50-bp-cut-20240918/) and decided to do it with a 50 bps
cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a
surprise. The larger cut was framed
as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps cuts by
the end of the year and less than the market expected in 2025. The US Dollar didn’t get a
boost despite the rise in Treasury yields. Now that the decision is behind us,
the focus will be on the economic data. If we start to see an
improvement, then Treasury yields will likely continue to rise and lead to a
reprising in the dovish expectations supporting the greenback in the
short-term. Conversely, if the data
weakens, the market will likely go ahead with expecting more 50 bps cuts by
year-end and weighing on the US Dollar.On the GBP side, the BoE
kept interest rates unchanged yesterday and sounded more hawkish than expected
with the markets now pricing just 39 bps of easing by year end.GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD managed to rally to a new high following the Fed’s and BoE’s
decisions. From a risk management perspective, the buyers would have a much
better risk to reward setup around the 1.30 handle. The sellers, on the other
hand, will likely wait for the price to fall below the previous high level at
1.3265 to start piling in for a correction lower.GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
defining the current bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, the buyers will
likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for the
continuation of the uptrend. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.30 handle.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add but a move below the 1.3265 level will likely increase
the bearish momentum into the trendline as the sellers are likely to pile in. The
red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Testing a key resistance
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-technical-analysis-testing-a-key-resistance-20240920/
Fundamental
OverviewCrude oil continues to
remain supported as the buyers might be looking forward to the consequences of the Fed’s easing
cycle on economic activity. As a reminder, the positioning in crude oil is at record lows and the
sentiment is very bearish. These factors can generally
offer great contrarian opportunities. The main reason which could drive oil
prices higher is the Fed easing into a resilient economy. Lower rates
generally lead to an increase in the manufacturing activity and therefore
increased demand for crude oil.On Monday, we get the S&P
Global PMIs and that will be the first test although the data might not
incorporate the Fed’s decision, so the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the first week
of October might be a better gauge. Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil rejected the key 71.67 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) but eventually came back to retest
it. The buyers will need the price to break above the resistance to start
targeting the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) around the 76 handle. The sellers,
on the other hand, will likely step in again with a defined risk above the
resistance to position for a drop into the 65 handle. Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent rejection from the resistance and the bounce on the
support zone around the 68.50 level. There’s not much else we can glean from
this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum
on this timeframe. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the
buyers to lean on it to position for a rally into the major trendline. The sellers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 65 handle. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
GBPUSD has a volatile day, but bounces off a key support level
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-has-a-volatile-day-but-bounces-off-a-key-support-level-20240919/
The GBPUSD experienced a volatile session today, similar to many other pairs. Following the Bank of England's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the price surged to a high of 1.33132. However, the momentum reversed after the US weekly jobless claims report came in better than expected, prompting a rotation lower. The price tested a previously broken swing area between 1.3221 and 1.3230, where buyers stepped in and pushed the price back higher.The upward move has taken the price above the swing high from August 27 and 28, which stood at 1.32659. The current high is 1.3284, with the price trading at 1.32785. As the day comes to a close, buyers remain in control. To confirm their dominance, it's essential that the 1.32659 level holds as support. A more conservative stop level for buyers seeking further upside would be 1.3221, the low of the swing area. If the price closes below this level, sellers may regain the upper hand and overwhelm buyersOn the topside, getting above the high today at 1.3313 would have traders looking toward or .33581. Break above that and the door open for more upside momentum. The price would also be trading at the highest level going back to March 2022.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The AUDUSD tests a key area on the daily chart. Buyers and sellers be on alert.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-audusd-tests-a-key-area-on-the-daily-chart-buyers-and-sellers-be-on-alert-20240919/
The AUDUSD is trading higher today, boosted by risk-on sentiment as US stocks surge. The Dow is up 633 points (1.52%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 2.00% and 2.95%, respectively. In the European session, the AUDUSD reached a new high, but struggled to sustain momentum above a key resistance zone between 0.6818 and 0.6823. The price briefly touched 0.68384 before pulling back to a low of 0.6786, and has since rebounded.The next upward move has brought the price back to the critical area between 0.6818 and 0.6823, where buyers are seeking to regain control. The 0.6818 level represents the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the February 2023 high to the October 2023 low, while the 0.6823 level corresponds to a swing high from August 29 of this year. For traders, if the price can break and hold above this zone, buyers will likely maintain their bullish momentum. Conversely, failure to breach this level could lead to profit-taking and downside probingBuyers and sellers be on alert. This is a key area for both.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The NASDAQ index is leading the way higher.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-nasdaq-index-is-leading-the-way-higher-20240919/
The NASDAQ index is leading the way to the upside today with a gain of 490 points or 2.8% at 18064. The high price reached 18078.20. That took the index up 504.90 points on the day. At session lows today the price was still up 336.45 points.Although surging, the price is still 3.29% away from it's all time high at 18671.07.Looking at the other broad index - the S&P index - it is currently at 97.5 points or 1.74% at 5716. It's high price reached 5722.88. The move higher is the eighth game in the last nine trading days. At current levels the price is also on pace for a record close.Finally, the down 30 is also sharply higher with a gain of 415 points or 1.0% at 41920. That index is also trading at new record levels.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD moves down to the 100 hour MA. Key intraday downside target.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-moves-down-to-the-100-hour-ma-key-intraday-downside-target-20240919/
The volatility in the EURUSD continues as the price has rotated back down after a spike lower in the Asian session, and a spike higher in the European session. The price is currently testing its 100-hour moving average of 1.1117. This represents a target on the downside that if broken would then have traders looking toward a swing area between 1.1097 and 1.1104. Move below that level and the 200-hour moving average at 1.1078 would be targeted.Dip buyers against the 100-hour moving average would now have to deal with resistance up to 1.1140 as resistance. A move above that level and staying above that level would be needed to give the buyers more confidence going forward.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The Fed cut sent markets in motion. What are the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD doing?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-fed-cut-sent-markets-reeling-what-are-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-doing-20240919/
It is the day after....The day after the Fed cut rates by 50 bps. US stocks are sharply higher as a Fed initiated a floor at all-time highs in the Dow and S&P. HMMMM. However, the Fed sees it as a "recalibration" of rates after restrictive policy that helped to lower inflation over the last year or so.In the US debt market, yields are higher as a result of the initial jobless claims showing strength.What about the FX markets?In this videotape, I take a look at the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - to kickstart the trading day for September 19.The EURUSD moved up to test the highs for the year yesterday at 1.1189 and 1.2000. The price got to the lower of those targets yesterday and then rotated back to the downside. After testing its 200-hour moving average in the Asian session today all the way down at 1.10777, the price rebounded sharply to the upside, but fell short of the high price from yesterday (the high price today reached 1.11783). Initial jobless claims has now sent the price of the EURUSD back toward its rising 100-hour moving average of 1.1117. Getting below that level and then a swing area at 1.1092 – 1.1104 would increase the bearish bias intraday, and have traders looking toward the 200-hour moving average once again.Conversely, a move above 1.1140 (high of a swing area) would open the door for buyers to retake more control in the short term. Price action volatile and so are the technicals.In a USDJPY, the low price yesterday fell below the low price target from September 11 at 140.714, but could not the end of December 2023 low price target at 140.248. The price rebounded higher and continued higher in the Asian session today. The high price extended above a swing area between 143.385 and 143.670, before rotating back to the downside. Initial jobless claims has pushed the price back higher and back toward the aforementioned swing area between 143.385 and 143.670. Getting above that area would increase the bullish bias and short-term at least. Stay below and a battle between it and 142.485 is probably warranted.The GBPUSD has a swing area going back to 2021 and 2022 between 1.3297 and 1.33581. The high price yesterday stalled against the lower of the extreme. The high price today moved within that swing area up to a high price of 1.33132 has since rotated down with the dollar moving higher on the initial claims. There is support at 1.3221 and 1.3230. The low price just reached 1.3237. Move below 1.3221 and the 100 hour moving average near 1.3194 would be targeted. Stay above the aforementioned swing area and the high price going back to the end of August at 1.32659 would be eyed as the next target to get to and through to give the buyers more confidence.Buckle up. The markets are still volatile. Know your technical defined risk for when you are wrong. Know your technical targets if you catch the next wave.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-aud-is-the-strongest-and-the-jpy-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240919/
As the North American session begins the AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is lower but with gains vs the JPY and the CHF. The USD is lower by 0.60% vs the GBP after the BOE kept rates unchanged a meeting after cutting by 25 basis points. The bullet points from the MPC Summary said:MPC aims to meet the 2% inflation target, supporting growth and employment.Majority vote (8-1) to keep the Bank Rate at 5%; 1 member favored a 0.25% cut to 4.75%.Unanimous decision to reduce UK government bond holdings by £100 billion over the next year, lowering the total to £558 billion.Policy remains focused on tackling inflation to return it to 2% sustainably and maintaining anchored inflation expectations.Three scenarios for inflation persistence: global shock easing, economic slack required, or structural shifts.Global growth steady; oil prices declined, reflecting weaker demand, with mixed signals on short-term outlook.UK GDP forecast to grow by 0.3% per quarter in the second half of 2024; CPI inflation was 2.2% in August, expected to rise to 2.5% by year-end.Monetary policy will remain restrictive for as long as needed to ensure inflation returns to target.It is the day after.....The US Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points yesterday.The decision was around 50-50 going into the decision. The initial reaction saw the stocks moving higher, yields lower and the USD lower. By the end of the US session, the USD was still lower overall, but well off the lows. Yields were higher and stocks gave up their gains. Today, the yield curve is steeper, the US dollar is mostly lower and the major US stock indices are sharply higher as markets not cheer the "recalibration" of rates, and an economy that is still expected to grow 2% with steady inflation and unemployment modestly higher (according to the Fed projections). It seems so perfect. What possibly could go wrong? TBD. Nevertheless, with the premarket gains in the Dow and the S&P, both of those indices are currently on track to trade to new record levels. The Dow previous high was 41981.97 reached yesterday. It closed at 41503.10 or 468 points away. The Dow futures are implying a gain of 476 points currently. The S&P all-time high reached 5689.75 and closed at 5618.26 (or 71 points away) before rotating back to the downside. The S&P futures are implying a gain of 90.25 points currently.In other central bank commentary: ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel highlighted that sticky inflation in the services sector is keeping headline inflation at elevated levels. She noted that price pressures within services are broad-based and global, with a stronger pass-through of higher wages to producer prices compared to other sectors. The momentum in services inflation remains high, surpassing levels consistent with price stability. While medium-term inflation projections are generally clustered around the ECB's 2% target, Schnabel expects wage growth to slow as past price shocks unwind. Private sector forecasts suggest that conditions for a soft landing remain intact, though there are signs that the transmission of the ECB’s monetary policy tightening is starting to weakenECB's Panetta and dove said that interest rate reductions could accelerate in the next monthsECB's Knot said there is room for further cuts if inflation outlook holds. The ECB had rates by 25 basis points at the last meeting, but into the implying that rates would remain unchanged in OctoberBank of Canada Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent clarified that when the central bank indicated in July that downside risks were becoming more important, it did not mean these risks had strengthened, but rather that with the 2% inflation target in sight, more consideration was given to the risk of inflation
S&P 500 Technical Analysis – The market likes rate cuts into resilient economy
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-500-technical-analysis-the-market-likes-rate-cuts-into-resilient-economy-20240919/
Fundamental
OverviewYesterday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle (https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-18-sep-fed-starts-rate-cuts-with-a-50-bp-cut-20240918/) and decided to do it with a 50 bps
cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a
surprise. The larger cut was framed
as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps cuts by
the end of the year and less than the market expected in 2025. What’s important is that
the Fed is cutting into a resilient economy which should lead to better growth
expectations and support the stock market.S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 after some short-term noise after the FOMC decision,
rallied to a new all-time high. The buyers will now keep on buying the dips as
long as the data continues to remain benign or, even better, improves. This is
not a market for the sellers, so they might want to wait for key breaks on the
lower timeframes or better yet for recessionary catalysts before piling in.S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
defining the current bullish momentum. We can expect the buyers to keep leaning
on the trendline to position for new highs, while the sellers will look for a
break lower to pile in for more downside.S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the whipsaw on the Fed’s decision
and then the rally overnight. There’s not much else we can glean from this
timeframe as the buyers will look to buy the dips, while the sellers will wait
for a bearish catalyst or a break below the trendline. The red lines define the
average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures which is the last important
economic release of the week.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – “Hawkish” 50 bps cut?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-hawkish-50-bps-cut-20240919/
Fundamental
OverviewYesterday, the Fed finally started
its easing cycle (https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-18-sep-fed-starts-rate-cuts-with-a-50-bp-cut-20240918/) and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already
leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed
as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps cuts by
the end of the year and less than the market expected in 2025. The US Dollar weakened
initially but eventually shot higher as Treasury yields rallied on a less
dovish than expected Powell with the market pricing out the aggressive rate
cuts expected in 2025.Now that the decision is
behind us, the focus will be on the economic data. If we start to see an improvement,
then Treasury yields will likely continue to rise and drive USDJPY higher.
Conversely, if the data weakens significantly, the market will start to worry
about a recession and take USDJPY lower.USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY bounced strongly from the 140.00 handle following the Fed decision.
We got a rejection around the 143.50 level as the sellers stepped in around the
previous swing low level. The buyers will want to see
the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 150.00 handle.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking through the
140.00 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
to increase the bearish bets into new lows.USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rejection from the 143.50 level. If we get a deeper
pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
around the 141.00 handle to position for a break above the major trendline
around the 145.00 handle. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline and the 140.00 support
to increase the bearish momentum.USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support zone around the 142.00 handle. This is where
we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to
position for a rally into the major trendline. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking to the downside to increase the
bearish bets into the 141.00 handle. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude
the week with the Japanese CPI and the BoJ Rate Decision.See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
The USDCAD is back above the cluster of MAs
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-usdcad-is-back-above-the-cluster-of-mas-20240918/
The USDCAD moved lower with the dollar but as the comments from the Fed chair were sprinkled with the "economy is not doing badly", gave the USD a boost.Looking at the USDCAD, moving below the cluster of MAs between 1.3580 to 1.3588 could not be helped but the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart stalled the fall, and price action started to move back higher. The price has back moved to the cluster of MAs and even above. Also the price is back in the Red Box between 1.3564 on the downside and 1.3622 on the topside. Back in neutral area and looking (again) for the next shove as the up and down volatility settles.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The USD knee jerk is to the downside after Fed cuts by 50 bps
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-usd-knee-jerk-is-to-the-downside-after-fed-cuts-by-50-bps-20240918/
The initial reaction on the 50 basis point rate Is for the US dollar to move lower:USDJPY. The USDJPY moved to a low of 140.76. That was within five pips of the swing low from last Wednesday's trading day. The price is currently training below its 100-hour moving average above at 141.09 at 140.98. Close bias level. Above is the 200 hour MA st 141.89. On the downside the 140.248 is the swing low from End of December 2023EURUSD: The EURUSD moved above swing area between 1.1131 and 1.11399 (close risk level now for the buyers). The high price is extending above the swing high from August 21 at 1.1172. The swing high from August 27 at 1.11897 and the double top near 1.1200 from August 23 and August 26 are the upside target to get to and through to increase the bullish bias. Above that and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the January 2021 hi comes in at 1.12709.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is trading to a new high going back to March 2022. The high price on March 23, 2022 reached 1.32977. Extend above that level and the swing low from January 27 comes in at 1.3357.Looking at the hourly chart, the close risk is at 1.32659 and then down to 1.3221 and 1.3230. Markets projects 62% of 25 bps in November and 95% of 50 in December
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD going sideways ahead of FOMC rate decision. What would break the pair higher/lower
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-going-sideways-ahead-of-fomc-rate-decision-what-would-break-the-pair-higherlower-20240918/
The USDCAD has been trading in a sideways pattern even though CPI data out of a Canada yesterday was weaker than expected. The unemployment rate is also moving higher with that at the highest level since 2017 (if you take out the spike from 2020 to 2021).The fundamentals are probably weaker in Canada which gives the USDCAD some upside momentum. However technically, the price highs of the last seven or so trading days has formed a ceiling between 1.3615 and 1.3622.As a result, the price needs to push above that area and also the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the August high at the 1.3633 trade level. If it can get above that level, and opens the door for a run toward the 100-day moving average of 1.3669 followed by the 50% 1.36927.On a move lower, falling below the 200-hour moving average at 1.3679 in the low over the last seven days near 1.3564, would open a door for a move toward the 100-bar moving average on a 4-hour chart at 1.35377. A move below that, and the bias is more in favor the sellers once again.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Better days ahead?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-technical-analysis-better-days-ahead-20240918/
Fundamental
OverviewCrude oil rebounded from
the lows as the buyers might be looking forward to the Fed’s easing cycle. As a
reminder, the positioning in crude oil is at record lows and the sentiment is
very bearish. These factors can generally
offer great contrarian opportunities. The main reason which could drive oil
prices higher is the imminent Fed’s easing into a resilient economy. Lower
rates generally lead to an increase in the manufacturing activity and therefore
increased demand for crude oil.Yesterday, we got the US
Industrial Production (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-august-industrial-production-08-vs-02-expected-20240917/) data and as expected the hurricane related drop in
July was erased. Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil rejected the key 71.67 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
as the sellers stepped in to position for a drop back into the 65 handle. The buyers
will need the price to break above the resistance to start targeting the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
around the 76 handle. Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that once the price broke above the minor downward trendline the buyers
piled in for a rally into the resistance. There’s not much else we can glean
from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong support zone around the 68.50 level where the price
got rejected from several times in the past weeks. This is where we can expect
the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a
rally into the 76 handle. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
into the 65 handle. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar), we have the FOMC Rate Decision and tomorrow, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis – All eyes on the FOMC decision
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-all-eyes-on-the-fomc-decision-20240918/
Fundamental
OverviewYesterday, we got some positive
US data releases as the US
retail sales (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-august-retail-sales-03-versus-03-expected-20240917/) came out a touch better than expected and the industrial
production (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-august-industrial-production-08-vs-02-expected-20240917/) data beat forecasts erasing the hurricane related weakness in
July. The data put some pressure
on gold and we might see some profit-taking given that it’s unlikely that the
Fed will be able to out-dove the markets expectations today.The market is pricing a 63%
probability that the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps today and then delivers 250 bps
of easing by the end of 2025. That seems a bit too aggressive at the moment, so
the market might get disappointed for the 2025 pricing. Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold is slowly edging lower as some profit-taking after the recent
rally might be taking place. From a risk management perspective, the buyers
will have a better risk to reward setup around the previous resistance now turned support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-polarity-20220408/) to position for the continuation of
the uptrend. The sellers, on the other hand, don’t have any level where to lean
on this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the setup around the 2532 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
where we can also find the confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/)
of the 50% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level and the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/).
This is where the buyers will likely step in with a defined risk below the
trendline to position for a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 2482
level. Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance around the 2575 level where have also a downward
trendline for confluence. If we get a pullback into the resistance, we can
expect the sellers to step in to position for a drop into the 2532 support. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar), we have the FOMC Rate Decision and tomorrow, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures.See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – Choppy price action as the market awaits more data
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-choppy-price-action-as-the-market-awaits-more-data-20240920/
Fundamental
OverviewOn Wednesday, the Fed
finally started its easing cycle (https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-18-sep-fed-starts-rate-cuts-with-a-50-bp-cut-20240918/) and decided to do it with a 50 bps
cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a
surprise. The larger cut was framed
as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps cuts by
the end of the year and less than the market expected in 2025. The US Dollar didn’t get a boost
despite the rise in Treasury yields. Now that the decision is behind us, the
focus will be on the economic data. If we start to see an
improvement, then Treasury yields will likely continue to rise and lead to a
reprising in the dovish expectations supporting the greenback in the short-term.
Conversely, if the data
weakens, the market will likely go ahead with expecting more 50 bps cuts by
year-end and weighing on the US Dollar.On the EUR side, the ECB speakers seem to prefer a rate cut in December while the market is pricing a 68% chance of a cut in October nonetheless. The central bank is data-dependent, so that's what will drive their decisions.EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD is back around the 1.12 handle after some choppy price action
following the Fed’s decision. From a risk management perspective, the buyers
would have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/),
although a break of the high will likely see the bullish momentum increasing. The
sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around these levels to position
for a drop into the trendline.EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a consolidation right around the 1.1155 level. This might act
as kind of a barometer with the price staying above being more bullish and
staying below being more bearish. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add as the price action has been very choppy and fundamentally
there’s also a good chance to see some strengthening in the USD if the data
starts to improve. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis – The fall in real yields drives the price higher
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-the-fall-in-real-yields-drives-the-price-higher-20240920/
Fundamental
OverviewThe Fed this week finally started its easing cycle (https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-18-sep-fed-starts-rate-cuts-with-a-50-bp-cut-20240918/) and decided to do it with a 50 bps
cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a
surprise. The larger cut was framed
as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps cuts by
the end of the year and less than the market expected in 2025. Gold weakened initially but
eventually shot higher as inflation expectations rose faster than nominal yields
driving real yields lower. The market is still pricing a 41% chance of a 50 bps
cut at the next meeting and 73 bps of easing by year-end.Watch the US data in the
coming weeks as stronger data will likely trigger a correction, while weak
releases should keep supporting the market.Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold rallied to a new all-time high following the Fed’s decision. We
have a trendline defining the current bullish momentum. If we get a pullback,
we can expect the buyers to lean on trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
to position for new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to
pile in for a drop into the 2482 level.Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke through the previous all-time high which was acting as
resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
and extended the rally above the 2600 level. The
resistance turned now into a support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-polarity-20220408/) and if we get a pullback, we can
expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to position for
the continuation of the uptrend. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the trendline.Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor trendline defining the bullish momentum on this
timeframe. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for new
highs, while the sellers will look for a break below the trendline and the
support to target a drop into the 2540 level. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD found buyers at the 100 hour MA and traders look toward the high for the day
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-found-buyers-at-the-100-hour-ma-and-traders-look-toward-the-high-for-the-day-20240919/
Earlier in the US session, I posted: The price did bounce off the 100-hour MA, and after getting above the 1.1140 level, has extended up to a corrective high of 1.1167. The next target comes in at the high for the day at 1.1178. Above that and the high from yesterday and from August 28 is near 1.1189. Finally, the high for the year was at a nice round number near 1.1200 from August 23 and August 26. Get above it and suddenly, the EURUSD is trading at the highest level since July 2023.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
NZDUSD has it's share of ups and downs, but buyers are in control. I will tell & show why.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-has-its-share-of-ups-and-downs-but-buyers-are-in-control-i-will-tell-show-why-20240919/
The NZDUSD continues to experience volatile price action following the FOMC rate decision, with today's trading seeing an initial move to the downside. The fall took the price briefly below its 100-hour moving average, marking a departure from the recent trend. However, this break was short-lived, and the price has since reversed sharply to the upside.The upward move did have it's limit. That limit stalled near yesterday's post-FOMC high of 0.6267. THat level was just shy of the swing area seen at the end of August, which comes in at 0.62728. To gain further control, buyers need to break above this level. For now, however, the buyers remain in control, and will continue to hold the reins as long as the price stays above the 100-hour moving average at 0.6198.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF is not escaping the up and down volatility. Testing a key technical target.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-is-not-escaping-the-up-and-down-volatility-testing-a-key-technical-target-20240919/
The USDCHF continues to experience volatile price action, with the current move testing a crucial downside target. After failing to break above the 38.2% retracement level of the decline from the mid-August high to the September low, the price has rotated back to the downside. The 38.2% retracement level was situated at 0.85172, with the high price reaching 0.85143 before reversing today.The downward move has brought the price to a key support level, defined by the convergence of the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and the 200-hour moving average, both of which are situated near 0.8474. This level serves as a critical barometer for both buyers and sellers, as it also marks the midpoint of the trading range established since August 20.I would expect if the MAs are broken, it would open the door for a move toward 0.8459 and then 0.84315. The low of most of the up and down price action comes in at 0.83996.On the topside, holding support and bouncing career would need to see the price move above and 0.8500, and the 38.2% retracement at 0.85172. The falling 200 bar moving average and the four hour chart is at 0.8530 in the high of most of the price action going back to mid-August comes in at 0.85368.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The USDCAD price action is volatile as the market digests Fed/data. What next?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-usdcad-price-action-is-volatile-as-the-market-digests-feddata-what-next-20240919/
The USDCAD price action is experiencing high volatility in today's trading, following yesterday's bounce between support and resistance levels. Initially, the price moved upward, breaking above the 38.2% retracement level of the decline from the August high, which stood at 1.3633. However, after reaching a peak of 1.3647 in the Asian session, the momentum shifted, and the price rapidly fell. This downward move breached the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, which was at 1.3545, a level that previously stalled the decline during the fall yesterday. The break below this average was seen as bearish, but similar to the failed upside break, the downside break also failed to sustain.Currently, the price is hovering around a cluster of moving averages between 1.3585 and 1.3589, comprising the 100 and 200-hour moving averages and the 100-day moving average. Nearby resistance is situated at 1.3622, while support on a potential break lower is found at 1.35643.The market is struggling to interpret the implications of the 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed, contributing to the volatility. Additionally, the Canadian economy is showing signs of weakness, with a rising unemployment rate of 6.6% and declining inflation approaching 2.0%. To navigate this uncertainty, it's essential to focus on technical risk-defining levels. By identifying key levels and understanding the underlying dynamics, traders can make informed decisions and set realistic targets. In this video, I will outline my key levels and provide insights into the current market situation.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
falling below target. He emphasized that reaching a consensus on rates strengthens the decision-making process, as differences in opinion tend to narrow as new data and information emerge. A consensus-based rate announcement reflects an agreement among Governing Council members on the best course of action at a particular moment, although individual members may still have differing views on the future path for interest rates.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading down up $0.69 or 0.99% at $70.57. At this time yesterday, the price was at $69.44Gold is trading up $29.98 or 1.17% at $2588.70. At this time yesterday, the price was $2577.07Silver is trading up $1.08 or 3.63% at $31.14. At this time yesterday, the price is at $30.58Bitcoin is trading at $62,587. At this time yesterday, the price was at $59,763. GOP nominee and former Pres. Trump visited a crypto bar in New York City yesterday as he stumps for crypto industry voting block.Ethereum is trading at $2433.20. At this time yesterday, the price was at $2299.05.In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are sharply higher after giving up gains yesterday in closing lower..Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 475.90 points. Yesterday, the index fell -103.08 points or -0.25% at 41503.10S&P futures are implying a gain of 90.25 points. Yesterday, the price fell -16.32 points or -0.29% at 5618.26. Yesterday seven day win streak was snapped.Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 409 points. Yesterday, the index fell -54.76 points or -0.31% at 17573.30.Yesterday, the small-cap Russell 2000 was higher by 16.30 points or 0.74% at 2205.477.European stock indices are trading higher:German DAX, +1.66%France CAC, plus a 2.00%UK FTSE 100, +1.03%Spain's Ibex, +0.70%Italy's FTSE MIB, +1.01% (delayed 10 minutes).Shares in the Asian Pacific markets closed higherJapan's Nikkei 225, +2.13%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.69%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +2.00%Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.61%Looking at the US debt market, yields are mixed with the shorter end lower in the longer and higher (steeper yield curve). Versus yesterday at this time, the two year yield is lower. The five year yield is unchanged, and the 10 and 30 year yields are higher:2-year yield 3.577%, -2.6 basis points. At the same Friday, the yield was at 3.628%5-year yield 3.473%, +0.9 basis points at this time Friday, the yield was at 3.472%10-year yield 3.715%, +2.8 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield is at 3.681%30-year yield 4.046%, +3.9 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield is at 3.994%Looking at the treasury yield curve, it has gotten steeper since his time yesterday.,The 2-10 year spread is +13.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield spread was +5.5 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is +46.5 points. At this time yesterday, the yield spread was +36.7 basis points.In the European debt market, the 10 year yields are higher:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – Rate cuts into soft landings are bullish
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-technical-analysis-rate-cuts-into-soft-landings-are-bullish-20240919/
Fundamental
OverviewYesterday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle (https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-18-sep-fed-starts-rate-cuts-with-a-50-bp-cut-20240918/) and decided to do it with a 50 bps
cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a
surprise. The larger cut was framed
as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps cuts by
the end of the year and less than the market expected in 2025. What’s important is that
the Fed is cutting into a resilient economy which should lead to better growth
expectations and support the stock market.Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq is now back at the key 20000 level. The sellers will likely
lean on the level to position for a drop into the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/).
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
increase the bullish bets into new highs.Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline to
position for new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to
increase the bearish bets into new lows.Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the whipsaw on the Fed’s decision
and then the rally overnight. There’s not much else we can glean from this
timeframe as the buyers will look to buy the dips, while the sellers will wait
for a bearish catalyst or a break below the trendline. The red lines define the
average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures which is the last important
economic release of the week.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – The USD rallies on less dovish 2025 projections
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-technical-analysis-the-usd-rallies-on-less-dovish-2025-projections-20240919/
Fundamental
OverviewYesterday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle (https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-18-sep-fed-starts-rate-cuts-with-a-50-bp-cut-20240918/) and decided to do it with a 50 bps
cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a
surprise. The larger cut was framed
as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps cuts by
the end of the year and less than the market expected in 2025. The US Dollar weakened
initially but eventually shot higher as Treasury yields rallied on a less
dovish than expected Powell with the market pricing out the aggressive rate
cuts expected in 2025.Now that the decision is
behind us, the focus will be on the economic data. If we start to see an
improvement, then Treasury yields will likely continue to rise and drive USDCHF
higher. Conversely, if the data weakens significantly, the market will start to
worry about a recession and take USDCHF lower.USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF has been stuck in a range between the key 0.8555 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) and 0.8400 support. There’s not
much we can say here as the buyers will want to see the price breaking to the
upside to increase the bullish bets into the 0.8731 level, while the sellers
will look for a break to the downside to target a drop below the 0.8333 level.USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price shot higher yesterday after the Fed decision and got
rejected from the key trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) as the sellers piled in with a
defined risk above it to position for new lows. The buyers will need the price to
break above the trendline to increase the bullish bets into new highs.USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
clearly see the choppy price action with no real direction although the bias
might be skewed to the upside after the Fed’s decision. There’s not much else
we can glean from this timeframe as the buyers will wait for a break of the
trendline or a bounce from the support, while the sellers will look to sell at
the trendline and increase the bets on a break below the support. The red lines
define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures which is the last important
economic release of the week.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD moves back to 100 hour MA and swing area
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-moves-back-to-100-hour-ma-and-swing-area-20240918/
The EURUSD moved higher (lower USD) after the Fed cut rates by 50 bps. The price extended higher and toward swing highs for the year. The 2nd to last swing high target was at 1.11897, and that level was reached. What wasn't reached was the double top at 1.12009 from August 23 and August 26.. Buyers turned to sellers as Powell held back on it is pedal to the mettle on cuts. The price has moved below its 100 hour moving average at 1.1108, and tests a swing area between 1.10976 and 1.11042. Move below that level and the 200- hour moving average at 1.10741 will be tested.Hold here and the focus returns to 1.1131 to 1.1140. .
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY moves back above the 100 hour MA at 141.07
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-moves-back-above-the-100-hour-ma-at-14107-20240918/
The USDJPY has announced higher after all and below the low from last Wednesday at 140.71 but stalling ahead of the December 2023 low price at 140.248. The low price reached 140.43.With the price back above the 100-hour moving average at 141.07, it keeps the buyers in play. However, they will still need to get above the 200-hour moving average and the swing area between 141.69 and 141.942. Between the 100 and 200 hour MA is or more neutral in the short term at least.The major stock indices are now in negative territory. Dow industrial average is -0.09%S&P index is down -0.11%NASDAQ index is down -0.14%Looking at the US debt market: 2 year yield 3.600%, +0.6 basis points5-year yield 3.463%, +3.1 basis points10 year yield 3.688%, +4.7 basis point30 year yield 4.014%, +6.1 basis points
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
GBPUSD extended higher and above a target level but reverses back down ahead of the FOMC
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-extended-higher-and-above-a-target-level-but-reverses-back-down-ahead-of-the-fomc-20240918/
The GBPUSD did make a run to the upside in the early US session and in the process extended above a swing area between 1.3221 and 1.3230. I talked about that area in the earlier video (https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/if-trading-the-september-fomc-in-the-fx-it-is-mandatory-to-know-the-roadmap-up-or-down-20240918/) starting at the 7-minute mark. The move above that level extended the price of the GBPUSD toward the high price reached at the end of August near 1.32659, but could not sustain momentum and has rotated back lower. Going forward, getting above 1.32659 price, would take the price of the GBPUSD to the highest level going back to March 2022 and have traders targeting that level at 1.32977 (call it 1.3300). Move above that and the door opens even more for more upside momentum. On the downside, the rising 100-hour moving average comes in at 1.31667. That level along with the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.3145, and the 200-hour moving average at 1.3125 would be the progression needed to shift the bias more to the downside. Move below those levels and a move toward 1.3051 cannot be ruled out.Buyers made a play but had second thoughts on the move ahead of the key Fed decision. The buyers remain in more control, but the Fed decision is a key risk event. A move below the cluster of MAs would hurt the bullish technical bias.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
What is the technical roadmap for the USDCHF through the FOMC rate decision.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/what-is-the-technical-roadmap-for-the-usdchf-through-the-fomc-rate-decision-20240918/
In this video, I take a look at the technical roadmap for traders through the FOMC rate decision. What would increase the bearish bias and why? What would shift the bias more to the bullish side - at least in the short term.With the price lower and trading near 2024 lows, and the price below the 100/200 hour MAs and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, the bias is more bearish. However, if the price were to move above those MAs between 0.8467 to 0.8471, the bias - at least in the short term- would shift higher with other targets on the topside. Targets on the topside on a more hawkish move:Get above cluster or MA at 0.84718Downward trend line near 0.8496.38.2% of the move down from the August high at 0.8517.200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (not broken since mid-July 0.853250% and swing high from AUgust 21 at 0.8561Targets on the downside on a more dovish move:Get and stay below 0.8431Swing area between 0.8399 to 0.84087Low after US jobs report at 0.83735. Move below that level and the end of December 2023 low at 0.83318 and the USDCHF is trading at the lowest level going back to 2011. That is a long time ago....
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – The USD stays under pressure ahead of the FOMC
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-technical-analysis-the-usd-stays-under-pressure-ahead-of-the-fomc-20240918/
Fundamental
OverviewLast Thursday, WSJ’s
Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was
still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities
to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered
a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces concerning
potential Fed decisions. Since then, the 50 bps camp got more vocal and the
probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps at today’s meeting stands now around 61%
with a total of 115 bps of easing by year-end. This repricing weakened the
US Dollar across the board as Treasury yields fell further. Once we are done
with the Fed decision though, the focus will switch back to the economic data.
In case we start to see better figures, the market might start to pare back the
aggressive easing expected in 2025 supporting the greenback in the short-term.For the RBNZ, the market
sees a 77% probability of a 25 bps cut at the upcoming meeting and a total of 83
bps of easing by year-end. NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD is now back at the key 0.6217 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/). This is where we can expect the
sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into
the 0.6050 support zone. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking higher to position for a rally into the 0.6370 level. NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
defining the current bullish momentum. The buyers will likely keep on leaning
on it to position for new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower
to increase the bearish bets into the 0.6050 support.NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the greenback feeling the
pressure from the 50 bps cut expectations since last Thursday. The red lines
define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar), we have the FOMC Rate Decision and tomorrow, we get the New Zealand Q2 GDP and the latest US
Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY moves to new session highs.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-moves-to-new-session-highs-20240917/
The USDJPY is ticking above the 200-hour MA at 141.988. The next target comes in at 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September high. That level comes in at 142.485. Move above that, and the door opens for a move toward 143.38 to 143.67 where the 50% is found.,
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
