The key technical levels in play for the major currency pairs for October 25
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-key-technical-levels-in-play-for-the-major-currency-pairs-for-october-25-20241025/
TGIF. The USD is mixed in early US trading as the market prepares for US durable goods data at 8:30 AM ET (est -1.0% with core at -0.1% est). Canada will release their retail sales data at the same time (est 0.5%). Later at 10 AM the University of Michigan revised sentiment will be released later at 10 AM with expectation of 69.0 vs prelim of 70.1 last month. US stocks are higher but still lower on the week (six week win streak in jeopardy). US yields are marginally lower.What are the key levels in the Forex today?EURUSD: The EURUSD moved above its 100-hour moving average yesterday for the first time since December 30. That tilted the bias in the short term to the upside. In trading today, the price action has been limited with a trading range of only 24 pips (versus 54 pip average over the last 30 trading days). Nevertheless, the price extended higher with the pair testing its falling 200-hour moving average of 1.0836 and finding willing sellers against that level. As a result, buyers and sellers are battling it out between the hourly moving averages with the 100-hour moving average at 1.0807 and the 200 hour moving at 1.0836. Buyers are making a play but they need to extend above the 200-hour moving average to increase the bullish bias with the 200 day moving average at 1.0870 area to be the next key target to aspire towards. Conversely, a break below the 100-hour moving average and the swing low from August 1 targets 1.07767.USDJPY: The USDJPY moved lower yesterday, extending down to, and then trading above and below a swing area between 151.856 and 151.937. In trading today, the pattern continued with a modest continuation of the move to the downside. That took the low price to 151.448 which was just short of its 200-day moving average of 151.407. The price has since bounced back and trades again above and below the swing area at 151.856 and 151.937. Like the EURUSD, the trading range for the USDJPY is modest 65 pips versus 154 pips average of the last 30 trading days (the pattern is for a quiet Friday so far). There is room to roam. Look for momentum away from the swing area to find the next momentum shove. On the top side, the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the July high comes in at 153.397. The high price this week reached 153.18 before rotating to the downside. Conversely, it would take a move below the 200 day moving average to shift the bias more in the favor of the sellers. On the downside, the broken 50% retracement comes in at 150.757 and the 100 day moving average comes in at 150.612.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD to a low this week of 1.29064 breaking below a modest target support level at 1.2938 in the process. In trading yesterday, the price low back above that level, and also back above its 100-day moving average at 1.29678. Admittedly, the price is trading above and below that moving average in trading today as the market tries to figure out which way to go. The price is stretching to a new high in the early US hours reaching 1.2991 currently. The natural resistance at 1.3000 loom ahead. That level was also near the swing low going back to September 11. Get above that level and the falling 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and the 50% midpoint of the range since the August low comes in at 1.30488. On the downside now, a fall back below the 100 day moving average would likely open the door for a run back toward 1.2938. Move below that and sellers to take more control.USDCHF: The USDCHFs originally 24 pips versus a 50 average over the last month of trading. The price is extending to a new high as the US session begins with the price reaching 0.8674 so far. That has taken the price above the high price from last week at 0.86684.. The high price for the week reached 0.86854. That level on long
USDCAD Technical Analysis – Some struggle to break above the key resistance
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-technical-analysis-some-struggle-to-break-above-the-key-resistance-20241025/
Fundamental
OverviewIt looks like the market is
taking some breather after an incredible rally in the US Dollar. This week was
pretty empty on the data front, and we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. The
main culprit for the US Dollar strength has been the rally in long term
Treasury yields. The yield curve has been
bear-flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and
potentially higher inflation expectations. There’s been a good argument that
the markets have been already positioning for a Trump victory which is expected
to strengthen the higher growth and less rate cuts expectations. For now, this is the trend
and it’s generally a bad idea to fight such trends without a strong catalyst.
Unfortunately, we don’t have much left for October as the main events will be
in the first weeks of November when we will get the top tier economic reports,
the US elections and the FOMC decision.On the CAD side, the BoC
cut interest rates (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-canada-rate-decision-50-basis-point-cut-as-expected-20241023/) by 50 bps as expected and signalled more rate cuts to
come with the size of the cuts being guided by incoming data. The market sees
an 85% probability of a 25 bps cut in December (15% for a 50 bps cut) and then three
more 25 bps cuts in 2025. USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD is testing the key resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 1.3860 level. This
is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance
to position for a drop back into the 1.36 support. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets
into new highs.USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the momentum got weaker around the key resistance as the price action
formed a rising
wedge (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/) right at the resistance. This generally signals a pullback or even a
reversal. In this case, it gives the
sellers a bit more confidence to target at least a pullback into the 1.3750
level with a break below the bottom trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
increasing the conviction. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely lean on
the bottom trendline to position for a break above the resistance and the top
trendline.USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the rejections around the
resistance. There’s not much else we can add here, but from a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the
bottom trendline where the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 1.3750 level. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the Canadian retail sales data.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – Key levels in play
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-key-levels-in-play-20241025/
Fundamental
OverviewIt looks like the market is
taking some breather after an incredible rally in the USDJPY pair. This week
was pretty empty on the data front, and we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst.
The main culprit for the US Dollar strength has been the rally in long term
Treasury yields. The yield curve has been
bear-flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and
potentially higher inflation expectations. There’s been a good argument that
the markets have been already positioning for a Trump victory which is expected
to strengthen the higher growth and less rate cuts expectations. For now though, this is the
trend and it’s generally a bad idea to fight such trends without a strong catalyst.
Unfortunately, we don’t have much left for October as the main events will be
in the first weeks of November when we will get the top tier economic reports,
the US elections and the FOMC decision.On the JPY side, there's not much new. We got the Tokyo CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/tokyo-area-october-inflation-data-headline-18-yy-prior-22-20241024/) today and the data missed expectations showing once again that there's no inflationary threat in Japan and the BoJ can keep postponing the rate hike. USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY eventually pulled back to the key 152.00 handle. This is where
we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to
position for the continuation of the rally into the 155.00 handle next. The
sellers, on the other hand, will likely pile in around this level to extend the
drop into the 149.40 level.USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) defining the current bullish
momentum. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline to target new highs,
while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 149.40 level.USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the recent pullback. The
sellers will likely lean on it to position for the break below the major
trendline, while the buyers will want to see a break higher to pile in for a
rally into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
The AUDUSD buyers had their shot, but missed. The price moves back toward 200 day MA
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-audusd-buyers-had-their-shot-but-missed-the-price-moves-back-toward-200-day-ma-20241024/
In the above video, I speak to the technicals that are driving the AUDUSD in trading today. The buyers had their shot. Sellers are taking back control. Can they keep the momentum going?. Below is a summary of those technicals.AUD/USD Technical AnalysisKey Break and ReversalYesterday, the AUD/USD broke below its 200-day Moving Average (MA) at 0.6628 and fell through the swing area support (0.66189-0.6628). However, the breach was short-lived. The low price reached 0.66134 and bounced.Current Market DynamicsToday's USD selling (AUDUSD) has propelled the price back above:200-day MA (0.6628)50% of the move up from the August low at 0.6645But failed near the high from last week. The price has rebounded to last week's low at 0.66578 (high reached just above the level at 0.6660) but momentum faded and the price has moved back lower. The price is back below the 50% at 0.66451 now..Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: 0.66578 (last week's low)Next target on a break: 0.66949 (100-day MA)50% retracement of the move up from the August low: 0.6645Move below and the 200 day MA and swing area at 0.6628 and 0.66189 to 0.66279. Break below 0.66189 and the door opens to natural summort at 0.6600 followed by 61.8% of the move up from the August low at 0.6575Market ImplicationsBuyers tried to move higher but failled. Move below 200 day MA at 0.6628 will be more bearishIt would take a move back above 0.66578 to take the pressure off the buyers and lead to more upside corrective probiing (with 100 day MA at 0.66949 a potential target.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD corrects lower after BOC rate cut. A swing low tries to hold support today.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-corrects-lower-after-boc-rate-cut-a-swing-low-tries-to-hold-support-today-20241024/
In the above video, I take a technical look at the USDCAD after the 50 bp cut yesterday. That move took the price higher and outside a key swing area, but could not sustain momentum. However, the decline today is trying to hold support at an earlier base level this week. That level will be key and I outline it in the above video. USDCAD Technical AnalysisRate Cut AftermathYesterday, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Initially, the USDCAD traded within a swing area between 1.38337 and 1.3847.Post-Press Conference RallyDuring the subsequent press conference, supported by USD buying, the pair surged toward the 1.38643 target. The intraday high reached 1.3862.Current Price ActionThe price has since retreated back into the swing area and below, reaching 1.3813, a level seen earlier this week.Key Levels to Watch:Immediate support: 1.3813 (this week's base)Next target zone: 1.3786-1.3792Critical resistance now: swing area (1.38337-1.3847)Market ImplicationsA break below 1.3813 would:Increase selling pressureTarget 1.3786-1.3792Conversely, holding above 1.3813 would:Suggest the decline is temporaryMaintain upside momentum
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
sellers more probing opportunity with 1.3786 to 1.3792 as the next target. Hold the level and the decline is just a blip in the upside momentum.AUDUSD: The AUDUSD reached and breached (below) its 200 day MA yesterday at 0.6628. The price also moved below the low of a swing area between 0.66189 and 0.6628. The break was short lived, however, and the USD selling today has taken the price back above the area and the 200 day MA. Sellers turned to corrective buyers. The price has move back up to the low from last week at 0.66578. Get above that level and a run back toward the other key daily MA - the 100 day MA - cannot be ruled out at 0.66949. Say below the low from last week and traders will eye a break of the 50% of the move up from August at 0.6645 to tilt the short term bias back to the downside. Buyers are making a play.NZDUSD: The NZDUSD followed the USD higher yesterday with the pair running below swing area support between 0.6031 and 0.60387. The momentum took the price to a low just below the natural support at 0.6000 (to a low of 0.59976) before snapping back higher. The price is now back up retesting the aforementioned swing area between 0.6031 and 0.60387. A move above is needed to give the buyers more confidence for upside probing with the broken 61.8% of the move up from the August low at 0.60509 as the next target. Move above that and sellers and buyers start to battle more after the sharp run lower over the last few weeks.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The greenback’s rally takes a breather
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-technical-analysis-the-greenbacks-rally-takes-a-breather-20241024/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD has been on a hell
of a run recently despite the lack of catalysts and no major repricing in interest
rates expectations. The main culprit for the
recent strength in the US Dollar has been the rally in long term Treasury
yields. The yield curve has been bear-flattening which is what you would expect with
higher growth and potentially higher inflation expectations. There’s been a good
argument that the markets have been already positioning for a Trump victory
which is expected to strengthen the higher growth and less rate cuts
expectations. For now, this is the trend
and it’s generally a bad idea to fight such trends without a catalyst.
Unfortunately, we don’t have much left for October as the main events will be
in the first weeks of November when we will get the top tier economic reports,
the US elections and the FOMC decision.On the GBP side, we got the
UK
Flash PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-october-flash-services-pmi-518-vs-524-expected-20241024/) this morning and the data missed expectations slightly across
the board. The market’s pricing didn’t change much though as the market
continues to expect a 25 bps cut at the upcoming meeting followed by another
one in December. GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD eventually reached the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
and bounced off of it as the buyers stepped in. The first target for them
should be the 1.31 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking below the trendline to increase the bearish bets into the 1.27 handle.GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on it to
position for a break below the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will
look for a break above the downward trendline to increase the bullish bets into
the 1.31 handle.GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe.
The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish
bets into the next trendline, while the sellers will likely lean on it to
position for a break below the major trendline. The red line define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US Jobless Claims and the US Flash PMIs.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – We completely erased the geopolitical rally
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-technical-analysis-we-completely-erased-the-geopolitical-rally-20241024/
Fundamental
OverviewCrude oil basically erased
the entire rally first triggered by the Iranian missile attack against Israel
in the first days of October. We are now back to square one as the market
awaits the key catalysts in the next few weeks.In the big picture, central
bank easing generally leads the manufacturing cycle, so we can expect global
growth to pick up and support the crude oil market. One risk that might be
weighing on the market is the US elections as a Trump victory might be bearish
due to increased supply expectations.In 2016, crude oil did fall
initially on the Trump victory but eventually rallied for more than 20% in the
following three months on higher global growth expectations. So, it’s going to
be a tricky one, but global growth should eventually prevail. Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil is testing a key barrier around the 71.67 level where the
price got rejected from several times in the past months. The buyers will want
to see the price breaking higher to start targeting the 77 handle next, while
the sellers will likely step in here with a defined risk above the level to
position for new lows.Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) defining the current bullish
momentum. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for further
upside, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish
bets into the 65 handle.Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action. There’s not much to add here as the
buyers will look for a break higher to position for a rally into the 77 handle,
while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 65 handle. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US Jobless Claims and the US Flash PMIs.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Nasdaq looks toward 200 hour MA support target
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-looks-toward-200-hour-ma-support-target-20241023/
The major US stock indices are tumbling to new lows. Dow industrial average is down 580.31 points or -1.35% at 42344S&P index is down 80.43 point toward -1.37% at 5770.88NASDAQ index is down 396 points or -2.13% at 18177.64.Technically, the NASDAQ index is moving toward its rising 200 hour moving average at 18115.01. The last time the price traded below its 200-hour moving average was back on September 11. Earlier on the day the 100-hour moving average and upward sloping trendline was broken near 18306.87 tilting the bias more to the downside..The S&P index has also moved below its 100-hour moving average of 5801.77. Its 200-hour moving average is the next downside target at 5749.54. Earlier today the price gap below its 50 hour moving average which was a bearish tilt. Yesterday I posted a detailed look at the S&P titled "If stocks are so expensive, find a reason to sell". You can read that post HERE (https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/if-stocks-are-so-expensive-find-a-reason-to-sell-20241022/).
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Sellers in the GBPUSD push to modest support and remains below the 100 day MA
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sellers-in-the-gbpusd-push-to-modest-support-and-remains-below-the-100-day-ma-20241023/
The GBPUSD moved below its 100-day moving average earlier today at 1.2963. The price also fell below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from August low at 1.29580. Both those levels would need to be rebroken on the topside to give the buyers more control. Until then, the sellers are in charge and in control. Break below 1.2938 opens the door for further downside momentum.Conversely, a move back above the 100-day moving average would have traders targeting the falling 100-hour moving average. That level currently comes in near the natural resistance at 1.3000 level.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD reaches the 200 day key target and finds willing buyers. What next?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-reaches-the-200-day-key-target-and-finds-willing-buyers-what-next-20241023/
In the North American morning report, I wrote on the AUDUSD: The AUDUSD is also breaking [lower] and fell below its 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low to the September high. That midpoint level comes in at 0.66451 and is now close resistance. On the downside the 200 day moving average comes in at 0.66277. Back in September, the price tested that moving average level and found willing buyers. That increases the levels importance. Will buyers come in against that level again? If the level is broken I would expect the technical buyers against the 200 day MA to turn to sellers. A move above the 50% at 0.6645 and staying above gives buyers some added confidence.The price action has indeed seen buyers against its 200-day moving average. The low price on the day comes in at 0.66285 just above the 200-day moving average at 0.66276. What next?Holding supported against the 200 day moving average is not a huge surprise as traders look to define and limit risk against key technical levels like that daily moving average. However, to give those dip buyers confidence, a move above a higher level is needed. On the AUDUSD chart, that level comes against the 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low to the September high at 0.6645. So far the price has been able to stay below that level with a high price and 0.66423.So an intraday battle is ongoing between the buyers and sellers between key technical levels. If the price breaks below the 200-day moving average and then the low of a swing area at 0.66189, it would open the door for a run toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.6575.Conversely, if buyers can exert more upside momentum and get above the 50% midpoint, that would lead to more upside probing with the low price from last week at 0.66578 another level to get above to give the buyers more confidence.For now the technical levels are doing their job at technical support and resistance.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Bank of Canada rate decision ahead. What technical levels are in play for the USDCAD?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/bank-of-canada-rate-decision-ahead-what-technical-levels-are-in-play-for-the-usdcad-20241023/
The Bank of Canada rate decision will take place at 9:45 AM ET. The expectations are for a 50 basis point cut.Adam summarized the decision here (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-canada-expected-to-cut-by-50-basis-points-and-continue-cuts-to-end-2025-20241022/). Key takeaways:Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 50 bps on Wednesday, marking the first significant cut in the current cycle.OIS market predicts a 90% chance of a 50 bps cut, with a small chance of 25 bps.Market expects another 25 bps cut by year-end, with rates declining by 100 bps to 2.50% in 2025.Canadian consumer trends are worsening, with CPI at 1.5% y/y, and housing markets, especially in Ontario and British Columbia, struggling.There's potential for rates to drop to 1% if a hard landing scenario occurs.Employment remains strong, but public sector layoffs and government changes could impact the economy.A dovish 50 bps cut is likely, which may slightly boost USD/CAD, but broader market deterioration would be needed for significant movement.The press conference will begin at 10:30 AM ETTechnically, the price of the USDCAD is pressing against topside swing area resistance between 1.3833 and 1.38475. A break above that level and staying above that level will start to target other swing levels going back to and July and early August at 1.3864, 1.3888, and then the high price from August up at 1.39458.With a price moving sharply over the last two and half weeks, there is some risk of sell the fact. If the price starts to trade more comfortably below 1.3833, and then breaks below 1.3813 (the low from yesterday should trade). We could see for the downside probing with 1.3790 and then the broken 61.8% retracement 1.37449 as corrective downside targets. Lastly, the low price stalled right at the broken 61.8% retracement level at 1.37449 increasing that levels importance going forward.Risk is increased through the decision. Buyers are still showing their strength. Can they keep the momentum going through the decision and aftermath, or will there be a self-the-fact reaction.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
$66,256. At this time yesterday, the price was at $67,191Ethereum is trading at $2573.90. At this time yesterday, the price was at $2634.90In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are lower after mixed results yesterday.Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -211.12 points. Yesterday, the index fell -6171 points or -0.02% at 42924.89S&P futures are implying a loss of - 13.20 points. Yesterday, the index fell -2.78 points or -0.05% at 5851.20Nasdaq futures are implying a loss of -67.10 points. Yesterday, the index rose 33.12 points or 0.18% at 18573.13European stock indices are trading mixed:German DAX, -0.13%France CAC, -0.57%UK FTSE 100, -0.50% %Spain's Ibex, +0.15%Italy's FTSE MIB, unchanged (delayed by 10 minutes)Shares in Asian Pacific session shares were mostly lower:Japan's Nikkei 225, -0.80%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.52% Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +1.27%Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.13%Looking at the US debt market, yields are trading modestly higher2-year yield 4.050%, +1.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.034%5-year yield 4.035%, +3.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 3.98 6%10-year yield 4.235%, +3.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.187%30-year yield 4.524%, +3.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.488%Looking at the treasury yield curve close steeper on Friday. At the closeThe 2-10 year spread is at + 18.6 basis points. At this time Friday morning, the yield spread was + 14.5 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at + 47.3 basis points. At this time Friday morning, the yield spread was + 45.3 basis points.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The USD continues its run to the upside led by the USDJPY. US stocks lower. Yields higher
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-usd-continues-its-run-to-the-upside-led-by-the-usdjpy-us-stocks-lower-yields-higher-20241023/
The forex markets has the USD moving higher as the NA sesssion begins. The moves are being led by the USDJPY (and JPY crosses) with a gain of 1.24% after it broke back above its 200-day MA for the first time since July 31. After moving down from 161.94 to 139.57 from July to September 2024, the USDJPY is now working toward the 61.8% retracement of that move over the last 5 1/2 weeks. That target comes in at 153.39. The high today has reached 152.40. The USD is also higher vs all the other currencies with the greenback higher by 0.66% vs the AUD and 0.51% vs the NZDUS yields are modestly higher. The 10-year yield moved above its 200-day moving this week and also the 50% midpoint of the 2024 trading range near 4.17%. The 10 yield is now trading at 4.235%. US stocks are lower in premarket trading with the Dow industrial average down 210 points as McDonalds weighs after announcing an e-coli outbreak in its quarter-pounder (now I crave one). McDonald's shares are trading down -6.89% in premarket trading. Starbucks preannounced earnings and they were NOT good after the close. Discretionary spending being felt or is it the "process" at Starbucks that is turning off consumers? I would not know as I have only had Starbucks at an airport. What do you say? Think? Starbucks shares are trading down -3.72%.Crude oil is lower after rising yesterday. Gold is trading modestly higher but once again on pace to another record close. The price is testing a Topside channel trendline on the daily chart.The Bank of Canada interest-rate decision will be released at 9:45 AM ET and markets expected to cut rates of 50 basis points.Adam summarized the decision here (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-canada-expected-to-cut-by-50-basis-points-and-continue-cuts-to-end-2025-20241022/). Key takeaways:Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 50 bps on Wednesday, marking the first significant cut in the current cycle.OIS market predicts a 90% chance of a 50 bps cut, with a small chance of 25 bps.Market expects another 25 bps cut by year-end, with rates declining by 100 bps to 2.50% in 2025.Canadian consumer trends are worsening, with CPI at 1.5% y/y, and housing markets, especially in Ontario and British Columbia, struggling.There's potential for rates to drop to 1% if a hard landing scenario occurs.Employment remains strong, but public sector layoffs and government changes could impact the economy.A dovish 50 bps cut is likely, which may slightly boost USD/CAD, but broader market deterioration would be needed for significant movement.The press conference will begin at 10:30 AM ETUS existing home sales will be released at 10 AM ET. With estimates of 3.86 million versus 3.86 million last month.The private weekly oil inventory data was released late yesterday and showed:Expectations for the EIA data to be released at 10:30 AM ET shows :Crude oil +0.270 millionGasoline -1.212M.Distillates -1.679MIn the forex, a summary with key technical levels shows:EURUSD: The EURUSD has continued its downward movement after holding below its 200-day moving average on Monday. Yesterday the price fell below the low from last week at 1.08103, and stayed below that level. As the North American session begins, the price is now breaking below the swing low level from August 1 at 1.0776 which is another bearish tilt, and will have traders looking down toward a swing area at 1.07198 to 1.07346. Close risk at 1.0776. More conservative risk for sellers is at 1.0810 which was the low from last week and a low this week before breaking lower (and staying below) yesterday. GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is breaking below its 100-day moving average again. Yesterday, the price fell below the 100 day moving average at 1.29635 but could not continue the
S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Lack of catalysts keeps the market rangebound
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/sp-500-technical-analysis-lack-of-catalysts-keeps-the-market-rangebound-20241023/
Fundamental
OverviewThe S&P 500 has been
consolidating around the all-time high as the lack of catalysts and the
pressure from rising Treasury yields kept the market at bay.We are now near the US
elections and it’s going to be a major event for the market. A Trump victory
will likely give the stock market a boost on better growth expectations, while a
Harris triumph could be more bearish.Treasury yields and the
stock market often move in the same direction as long as the move is led by
growth expectations. So the data, the elections result and the Fed's reaction function will be key for the market in the next six months.S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 is consolidating around the all-time. From a risk
management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup
around the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/). The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to start targeting new
lows.S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action between the 5920 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
and the 5865 support. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to
extend the rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower
to target a deeper pullback into the trendline.S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here. It’s unlikely that we’ll get a breakout today given
the lack of catalysts. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Flash PMIs and the US Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – We are at a key support level
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-technical-analysis-we-are-at-a-key-support-level-20241025/
Fundamental
OverviewIt looks like the market is
taking some breather after an incredible rally in the US Dollar. This week was
pretty empty on the data front, and we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. The
main culprit for the US Dollar strength has been the rally in long term
Treasury yields. The yield curve has been
bear-flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and
potentially higher inflation expectations. There’s been a good argument that
the markets have been already positioning for a Trump victory which is expected
to strengthen the higher growth and less rate cuts expectations. For now, this is the trend
and it’s generally a bad idea to fight such trends without a strong catalyst.
Unfortunately, we don’t have much left for October as the main events will be
in the first weeks of November when we will get the top tier economic reports,
the US elections and the FOMC decision.On the AUD side, the latest
data has been pretty strong with the Australian labour market report (https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-september-unemployment-rate-41-vs-42-expected-20241017/) last week beating expectations by a
big margin. Although it didn’t change much in terms of interest rate
expectations, it reinforces the RBA’s hawkish stance.AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD is bouncing from the key swing level at 0.6622. This is where
the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the level to position for
a rally into the 0.68 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.65 handle
next.AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
level at 0.6660 where we can also find the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/).
If we get a pullback into the resistance, we can expect the sellers to step in
with a defined risk above the level to position for the break below the 0.6622
support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.68 handle.AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the several rejections from the
0.6622 support as the sellers have been struggling to break through. There’s
not much more we can add as the sellers will look to short from the trendline
or on a break lower, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking the
resistance to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define
the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – Is this just a pullback or a reversal?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-is-this-just-a-pullback-or-a-reversal-20241025/
Fundamental
OverviewIt looks like the market is
taking some breather after an incredible rally in the US Dollar. This week was
pretty empty on the data front, and we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. The
main culprit for the US Dollar strength has been the rally in long term
Treasury yields. The yield curve has been
bear-flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and
potentially higher inflation expectations. There’s been a good argument that
the markets have been already positioning for a Trump victory which is expected
to strengthen the higher growth and less rate cuts expectations. For now, this is the trend
and it’s generally a bad idea to fight such trends without a strong catalyst.
Unfortunately, we don’t have much left for October as the main events will be
in the first weeks of November when we will get the top tier economic reports,
the US elections and the FOMC decision.On the EUR side, the ECB (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecb-cuts-key-rates-by-25-bps-in-october-monetary-policy-decision-as-expected-20241017/) last week cut interest rates by 25 bps as
expected but didn’t offer anything new in terms of forward guidance as the
central bank remains data dependent and it’s not pre-committing to a particular
rate path. The market is pricing an 83%
chance of another 25 bps cut in December with 17% probabilities of a larger 50
bps cut. Further ahead, the market sees the ECB cutting four more times in
2025.EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD bounced off of the key swing level at 1.0777 as the buyers
stepped in with a defined risk below the level to position for a pullback into
the 1.10 handle. The sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to
increase the bearish bets into the 1.06 handle next.EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have the downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) defining the current bearish
momentum. The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for new
lows, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase
the bullish bets into the 1.10 handle.EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price is trading right around the trendline now. There’s not much
we can add here as the sellers will look for a rejection, while the buyers will
look for a breakout to the upside. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
The EURUSD buyers are taking back some control from the sellers.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-eurusd-buyers-are-taking-back-some-control-from-the-sellers-20241024/
The EURUSD is making a technical break into the close as it moves above its 100-hour moving average for the first time since September 30. That level comes at 1.08129. Getting and staying above that moving average is a win for the buyers. The next target comes against the 200 hour moving average at 1.08423. If that moving average can be broken in the new trading day a run toward the 200-day moving average near 1.0872 is not out of the question.Buyers make a play after the trend move lower shows some signs of losing downside momentum.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Key levels to watch in current market dynamics
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-technical-analysis-key-levels-to-watch-in-current-market-dynamics-20241024/
In the above video, I speak to the technicals that are driving the USDCHF in trading today. Below is a summary of those technicals. Market OverviewThe USD/CHF begins the day with a relatively narrow 21-pip trading range, significantly below its average monthly range of 53 pips (39% of normal). This subdued volatility makes it the least volatile major pair.Yesterday's Price ActionThe pair briefly broke above last week's high at 0.8668 but failed to reach the 100-day Moving Average (MA) at 0.86934 (intraday high: 0.86854). The price retreated, falling below 0.8668.Current Market DynamicsThe current price is 0.8661.Key Levels to Watch:Close resistance: 0.86684.That is the high ceiling from last week that failed on the break yesterday. Get above that ant the 100 day MA willbe targeted at 0.8693Support: 0.86318 (last week's low and 38.2% retracement of July's downtrend). Move below that level and a swing area at 0.8607 to 0.8619 and the rising 100 hour MA will be targeted (currently at 0.8602 and moving higher). Market ImplicationsBuyers' initial attempt to break higher failed. To remain relevant, they must:Reclaim 0.86684Hold 0.86318 on any dip
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for Oct. 24 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-oct-24-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20241024/
EUR/USD Technical AnalysisOn Monday, the pair stalled at the 1.0870 area (100-hour MA and 200-day MA convergence), initiating the current downtrend. This convergence increased the falling 100-hour MA's importance going forward.Yesterday, the EUR/USD extended its decline, breaking below the 1.07767 level (August 1 low). This move triggered a further decline to 1.07605, but the pair failed to sustain momentum toward the next target zone of 1.0719-34. Instead, it reversed higher.Today's Price ActionSellers reattempted to break below 1.07767 but were rejected at 1.07695. The pair has since rebounded, approaching last week's swing low at 1.0810 (intraday high: 1.08075).Key Levels to Watch:Immediate resistance: 1.08106 (last week's low)Critical resistance: 1.08165 (falling 100-hour Moving Average)Longer-term resistance: 1.0870 ( 200-day MA convergence/broken 61.8% retracement)Market ImplicationsBuyers are attempting to regain control after sellers failed to maintain momentum. To achieve this, they must reclaim:1.08106 (last week's low)2. 1.08165 (falling 100-hour MA)A successful break above these levels would boost buyer confidence and potentially shift short-term control.USDJPYThe USD/JPY emerged as the strongest major pair against the USD yesterday, following its breakout above:100-day Moving Average (MA) at 150.66 (Tuesday)200-day MA at 151.388 (Wednesday)The pair surpassed the swing resistance near 151.92, reaching a high of 153.18. Although shy of the 61.8% target at 153.397, this level is considered relatively close given the USD/JPY's 160-pip average range.Current Market DynamicsToday, as the USD weakens, the USD/JPY has retreated toward:Swing area support at 151.92A move below would target the 200-day MA support at 151.389Key TakeawaysThe 200-day MA will be crucial support today and in the near term.Holding above this level is essential for maintaining upside momentum.GBPUSDYesterday, the GBP/USD extended its downtrend, breaking away from the 100-day Moving Average (MA) at 1.2965. The decline surpassed earlier weekly lows and the 1.2938 target, reaching a low of 1.2906.Today, the pair has rebounded, reclaiming ground above the 100-day MA (1.2965). Currently trading at 1.2976, with an intraday high of 1.29808.Key Levels to Watch:Next upside target: September 11 low at 1.3000Break above 1.3000 should trigger further upside momentumSellers failed to sustain momentum below the 100-day MA; buyers now have the short-term advantage. Can they keep it?
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The key technical levels in play for the major currency pairs for October 24, 2024
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-key-technical-levels-in-play-for-the-major-currency-pairs-for-october-24-2024-20241024/
The USD is correcting lower today as the North Amercan traders enter for the day. US yields are lower. The broader stock indices are higher. What are the key levels in the Forex today? EURUSD: The EURUSD extended the decline below the next downside target yesterday at the 1.07767 level (low from August.1) The momentum below that level took the pair to a low of 1.07605, but momentum to the next target at 1.0719-34 could not be sustained. The price moved higher. Today, sellers tried again to move below the same level but only got to 1.07695 before snapping back higher. The price has since moved back toesar the swing low from last week at 1.0810 (high reached 1.08075). Sellers had their shot, they missed and the buyers are making a play. Can they get back above the low from last week at 1.08106 and then the falling 100 hour MA at 1.08165? Recall from Monday, the pair stalled at the 100-hour MA and 200 day MA near 1.0870 area and started the run lower. That increased the falling 100 hour MAs importance going forward. It will take a move above to give the buyers more confidence today (and control).GBPUSD: The GBPUSD continued its run to the downside yesterday and in doing so, moved away from the 100-day MA (currently at 1.2965). The low took out the low from earlier this week and a modest target at 1.2938 on it's way to a low of 1.2906. The bounce back higher today, has seen the price move back above the 100-day MA at 1.2965. The price currently trades at 1.2976 and reached a high or 1.29808. The next upside target on more momentum will targe the September 11 low near the nice round number of 1.3000. Get back above it and there should be more upaide probing. Like the EURUSD, the GBPUSD sellers had their shot below the 100 day MA. Now the ball in the short-term seems to be back in the buyers court to take back even more control (if they can).USDJPY: The USDJPY was the strongest of the major pairs vs the USD yesterday after breaking above the 100 day MA (at 150.66 currently) on Tuesday and the 200 day MA on Wednesday (at 151.388 currently). The pair also moved above a swing area near 151.92 on its way to a high of 153.18. That fell short of the 61.8% target at 153.397 (the USDJPY average range is 160 pips so within 20 or so pips is fairly close). Today, as the USD weakens, the pair has moved back down toward the swing area at 151.92 and below that, the 200 day MA at 151.389. Those levels - especially the 200 day MA will be key support today and going forward.USDCHF: The USDCHF starts the day with only a 21 pip trading range (Average over the last month is 53 pips). That makes it the least volatile of the major pairs (39% of the normal range over the last month). Technically, the pair yesterday broke above the highs from last week at 0.8668 but could not stretch to the 100 day MA at 0.86934 (high reached 0.86854). The price backed to the downside and fell back below the high from last week at 0.8668. The current price is trading at 0.8656. The buyers shot and missed on the break. Watching 0.86684 now as close resistance with the low from the week and the level where the 38.2% of the move down from July is found at 0.86318 is the next key target. If the buyers are to stay in the game, they would need to hold that level on any dip.USDCAD: The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50 basis points yesterday, and the USDCAD sat in a swing area between 1.38337 and 1.3847. Later during the press conference (and with help from USD buying), the pair extended higher stretching toward the next target at 1.38643. The high reached 1.3862. The price rotated lower back into the swing area and today, the price has moved back below that level to a base from earlier this week at 1.3813. A move below that level should give
Gold Technical Analysis – There are signs of caution for the bulls
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-there-are-signs-of-caution-for-the-bulls-20241024/
Fundamental
OverviewIn recent days, gold has
been making new highs despite the lack of bullish catalysts and the rise in
real yields. Nonetheless, we’ve been seeing some quick selloffs at the highs in
a potential sign that real yields are starting to bite, and we might be near a bigger
pullback. Today, we get the Flash US PMIs and if the data is strong, we might
finally see a decent correction lower. In the bigger picture, gold
remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the
Fed’s easing cycle. The pullbacks will likely be triggered by a repricing in
rate cuts but unless the Fed’s reaction function changes, the uptrend should
remain intact.One key event which could
trigger a strong selloff in gold is the upcoming US election. In fact, a Trump
victory will likely raise real yields on higher growth and less rate cuts
expectations. Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold managed to rally into a new high this week but eventually gave
back everything as the pressure from rising real yields started to build. From
a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward
setup around the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/), while the sellers will want to see
the price breaking below the trendline to pile in for a drop into the 2500
level. Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke below the minor trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
that was defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. This might be a
signal for a pullback. The sellers will likely step in around these levels to
position for a drop into the 2685 level, while the buyers will want to see the
price rising back above the trendline to target new highs.Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
zone now around the 2740 level where the price is retesting the broken
trendline. This is where we can expect the sellers to pile in with a defined
risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the 2685 level, while the
buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to target new highs. The red
lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US Jobless Claims and the US Flash PMIs.See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF continues to move higher, but just barely
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-continues-to-move-higher-but-just-barely-20241023/
The USDCHF has been trading higher since September 30, and after breaking outside of the "Red Box" on October 4. The price moved up to a swing area and then above the 38.2% retracement during last week's trading. On Monday this week, the price corrected down to retest the 38.2% retracement at 0.86318 and found support buyers. That was good news technically for the buyers, and the price did move higher extending above the high prices from last week at 0.8668 in the process. However, the high price today fell short of its 100 day target at 0.86959 (only reaching 0.8685). The prices currently trading above and below that 0.8668 level. I wouldn''t say the break was met with enthusiasm. In fact, it seems the market is running out of steam in what has been an up-and-down advance higher. Yes, the price moves higher but then it rotates back to the downside. If the price were to break with more momentum the low 0.8668 we should be on her way to revisit the 38.2% retracement at 0.86318. Move below that level and buyers turn to sellers on the disappointment.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Apple falls on bearish iPhone sales commentary. Apple shares down -2.35%
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/apple-falls-on-bearish-iphone-sales-commentary-apple-shares-down-235-20241023/
Shares of Apple are moving sharply lower after MIng CHi Kuo a widely followed analyst of Apple projects that iPhone 16 orders will be cut by around 10 million units for 4Q 2024 to 1H2025.Shares of Apple are currently trading down $6 or -2.54% at $229.86. Last week, the price reached an all-time high price of $237.49.Technically, the price is now breaking below its 100-hour moving average of $230.07 (see blue line on the chart above). The 200-hour moving average (green line) comes in at $227.70. That will be the next downside target. If broken, it would shift the bias lower and have traders looking toward the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low at $221.64.Since August 5 low price at $211.85, the price has moved up 21.17% to the high price last week. It is still up 17.13% since that day. For the year, shares are up 19.35%.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
NASDAQ index is down 1%. Dow industrial average is down -0.88% is McDonald's slumps.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-index-is-down-1-dow-industrial-average-is-down-088-is-mcdonalds-slumps-20241023/
US stocks have extended their fall with the NASDAQ index now down 1% on the day. The Dow industrial average is down -0.88% and the S&P index is down -0.69%.Shares of Nvidia are down -2.45% at $139.95 after extending to a new all-time high price at $144.42 during yesterday's trading. Since the August 5 low at $90.69, the price has rebounded 54.20%. Nvidia does not release its earnings until November 20. On October 3, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in an interview with CNBC’ that demand for the company’s next-generation artificial intelligence chip Blackwell is “insane.”.. Since then shares are up 16.21%..McDonald shares are trading down $15.39 or -4.89% at $299.40. The price action today took the shares below its 50 day moving average at $296.63. That also took the price into negative territory for the year ($296.51 was the end of year closing level). The low price today reached $290.83. The balance back has taken the price back above its 50-day moving average and back into positive territory for the year. Watch the $296 level going forward.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD little changed after interest-rate decision
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-little-changed-after-interest-rate-decision-20241023/
The Bank of Canada cut right by 50 basis points which was as expected. The central bank wants to keep inflation near 2%. The focus is to maintain low, stable inflation while increasing growth. The central bank lowered the CPI forecast for 2024 and 2025. Core inflation was also lowered.Technically, the price action has been minimal but the high of the swing area outlined in my previous post has been able to hold resistance at 1.38475. So has the low of the swing area at 1.38337. Buyers and sellers are battling it out and await the next break with momentum.The press conference with BOC Macklem (and company) begins at 10:30 AM ET.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for Oct 23 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-oct-23-wa-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20241023/
In the kickstart video, I take a look at the 3 major currencies from a technical perspective. The trend is for the USD moving higher with the USDJPY leading the way once again. Below is the summary:EURUSD: The EURUSD has continued its downward movement after holding below its 200-day moving average on Monday. Yesterday the price fell below the low from last week at 1.08103, and stayed below that level. As the North American session begins, the price is now breaking below the swing low level from August 1 at 1.0776 which is another bearish tilt, and will have traders looking down toward a swing area at 1.07198 to 1.07346. Close risk at 1.0776. More conservative risk for sellers is at 1.0810 which was the low from last week and a low this week before breaking lower (and staying below) yesterday. USDJPY: The USDJPY moved above its 200 day moving average at 151.371 like a hot knife through butter in the Asian session today and has continued the trend like move. The current price is trading at 153.04 as the market stretches toward the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the July high to the September low. The level comes in at 153.397. Close support now is near 151.93 which is a swing level going back to May 2024.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is breaking below its 100-day moving average again. Yesterday, the price fell below the 100 day moving average at 1.29635 but could not continue the momentum to the next target at 1.2938. The low price reached 1.29438. Getting below 1.2938 is the next downside target. Staying below the 100-day moving average at 1.29635 is a close risk and would give the sellers the greatest incentive to push lower if the price remains below that level.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
momentum to the next target at 1.2938. The low price reached 1.29438. Getting below 1.2938 is the next downside target. Staying below the 100-day moving average at 1.29635 is a close risk and would give the sellers the greatest incentive to push lower if the price remains below that level.USDJPY: The USDJPY moved above its 200 day moving average at 151.371 like a hot knife through butter in the Asian session today and has continued the trend like move. The current price is trading at 153.04 as the market stretches toward the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the July high to the September low. The level comes in at 153.397. Close support now is near 151.93 which is a swing level going back to May 2024.USDCHF: The USDCHF broke about the highs from last week at 0.86684 reaching a high today of 0.8685. The 100-day moving average of 0.86958 is the next key target. The price last traded above its 100 day moving average back on July 11. Staying above the high from last week at 0.8668 is now close risk for traders looking for more upside momentum. A break below that level could see the price move back toward the broken 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high at 0.86318.USDCAD: Ahead of the Bank of Canada interest-rate decision, the USDCAD is trading back into a Topside swing area between 1.38337 and 1.38475. If the buyers are to continue the trend higher, getting above the 1.38475 and staying above is needed. Yesterday the low came in at 1.3813. Getting below that level would have traders looking toward 1.3788 – 1.37919 area. The USDCAD is overbought signs of consolidation, but if the price breaks above the 1.38475, I would not mess with the trend.AUDUSD: The AUDUSD is also breaking and for fell below its 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low to the September high. That midpoint level comes in at 0.66451 and is now close resistance. On the downside the 200 day moving average comes in at 0.66277. Back in September, the price tested that moving average level and found willing buyers. That increases the levels importance. Will buyers come in against that level?. When I know is if it is broken I would expect the technical buyers to turn to sellers.NZDUSD: The NZDUSD group below a swing area at 0.6031 to 0.60387. That area will now be upside resistance and a bias changing area in the short term. Move above, and there could be some disappointment on the break with a move back toward 0.60509. On the downside, the natural support at 0.6000 is the next target followed by a swing area between 0.5970 and 0.59836. Yesterday and today, the NZDUSD found willing sellers against its 100 hour moving average currently at 0.60521. The high price today reached 0.60519. BearishIn earnings released this morning:Boeing Co Q3 2024: EPS -10.44 vs estimate -10.34, MISSED. Revenue 17.84 bln vs estimate 17.93 bln, MISSED.CME Group Q3 2024: EPS 2.50 vs estimate 2.65, MISSED. Revenue 1.86 bln vs estimate 1.58 bln, BEAT.General Dynamics Corp Q3 2024: EPS 3.35 vs estimate 3.47, MISSED. Revenue 11.67 bln vs estimate 11.64 bln, BEAT.Coca-Cola Co Q3 2024: EPS 0.77 vs estimate 0.74, BEAT. Revenue 11.9 bln vs estimate 11.6 bln, BEAT.AT&T Q3 2024: EPS 0.60 vs estimate 0.57, BEAT. Revenue 30.2 bln vs estimate 30.44 bln, MISSED.Boston Scientific Corp Q3 2024: EPS 0.63 vs estimate 0.59, BEAT. Revenue 4.209 bln vs estimate 4.044 bln, BEAT.Hilton Worldwide Holdings Q3 2024: EPS 1.92 vs estimate 1.85, BEAT. Revenue 2.86 bln vs estimate 2.85 bln, BEAT.Thermo Fisher Scientific Q3 2024: EPS 5.28 vs estimate 5.25, BEAT. Revenue 10.59 bln vs estimate 10.64 bln, MISSED.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading down $1.29 or -1.78% at $70.46. At this time yesterday, the price was at $70.58.Gold is trading unchanged at $2749.At this time yesterday, the price was at $2734.11.Silver is trading down $0.38 or -1.08% and $34.45. At this time yesterday, the price is at $34.38. Bitcoin is trading at
Читать полностью…
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – The consolidation continues amid lack of catalysts
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-technical-analysis-the-consolidation-continues-amid-lack-of-catalysts-20241023/
Fundamental
OverviewThe Nasdaq has been
consolidating around the all-time high as the lack of catalysts and the
pressure from rising Treasury yields kept the market at bay.We are now near the US
elections and it’s going to be a major event for the market. A Trump victory
will likely give the stock market a boost on better growth expectations, while
a Harris triumph could be more bearish.Treasury yields and the
stock market often move in the same direction as long as the move is led by
growth expectations. So, the data, the elections result and the Fed's reaction
function will be key for the market in the next six months.Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq is consolidating around the highs. From a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/). The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to start targeting the next major
trendline.Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent rangebound price action with the 20265 level acting
as support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/). If the price gets there, we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally
into a new high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the trendline around the 19800 level.Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here. It’s unlikely that we’ll get a breakout today given
the lack of catalysts. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Flash PMIs and the US Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – New highs in Treasury yields boost the USD further
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-technical-analysis-new-highs-in-treasury-yields-boost-the-usd-further-20241023/
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD continues to reign
supreme despite the lack of catalysts. The main culprit for the recent strength
in the US Dollar has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield
curve is bear flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and
potentially higher inflation expectations. The catalyst for this was
of course the latest FOMC decision and the US NFP report added fuel to the
fire. There’s also been a good argument that the markets are already
positioning for a Trump victory which is expected to strengthen the higher
growth and less rate cuts expectations. For now, this is the trend
and it’s generally a bad idea to fight such trends without a catalyst.
Unfortunately, we don’t have much left for October as the main events will be
in the first weeks of November when we will get the top tier economic reports,
the US elections and the FOMC decision.On the NZD side, the latest
New Zealand Q3 CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/new-zealand-q3-cpi-06-qq-expected-07-22-yy-expected-22-20241015/) missed expectations solidifying the
market’s view for another 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting and even pricing 26%
chance of a 75 bps move. In 2025, the market expects four more 25 bps cuts. NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD is slowly breaking below the key 0.6050 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone. The bearish momentum has slowed down, but
the sellers will likely pile in around these levels to keep pushing into the
0.5850 level next. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see a bounce to
start targeting the 0.6217 resistance.NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the recent price action has formed a falling
wedge (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/) which is generally a signal of a loss of momentum and potential
reversal. The sellers will want to see the price breaking below the bottom trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will
look for a break above the top trendline to pile in for a rally into the 0.6217
resistance. NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much more we can add as buyers and sellers will look for breakouts. Nonetheless,
we can expect some aggressive buyers to step in around the bottom trendline to
position for a rally into the top trendline. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US Flash PMIs and the US Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
