Crude oil futures settle at $71.99
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-futures-settle-at-7199-20241105/
Crude oil futures are settling at $71.99, that is up $0.52 or 0.73%.Some influences:OPEC+ delayed 180,000 barrels per day of monthly production increases to January.US election uncertainty: Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are neck and neck.China's improving economy supports oil prices.Technically, the price spent most of the day between a swing area between $71.44 and $72.43. The low price today reached $71.32 just below the low of the swing area, while the high reached $72.64 some $0.20 above the high of the swing area. The price is closing near the middle of the range. Traders will be looking for a break in either direction followed by momentum.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD moves lower as the election day continues. Tests 100 bar MA and swing area.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-moves-lower-as-the-election-day-continues-tests-100-bar-ma-and-swing-area-20241105/
The USDCAD is moving lower in sympathy with the overall US dollar weakness ahead of the election vote and results (at least some of them) later today. The move lower was also helped by the failure to keep the upside momentum going after breaking to a new high for the year (and going back to 2022) on Friday. THe price gapped lower on Monday and momentum has continued today. The move to the downside has reached the rising 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.38506. Below that, the price is testing a swing area between 1.3833 and 1.38475. If that level is broken, the swing lows from two weeks ago at 1.3813 will be the next target followed by a swing area between 1.3786 and 1.37919. Finally the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September low comes in at 1.37526.All those levels are within reach given the volatility potential from the US auction.On the topside, the target levels of the topside include 1.3864, 1.3888, and the high from August at 1.3945. The high price from Friday extended up to 1.3958 which was the highest level going back to 2022. The high price in 2022 reached 1.3977.What the price is trading around a swing area down to 1.38337 and just below the 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and 1.3506, the pair is adding more neutral level after the sharp trend move in October (and into early November) saw the price move up from about 1.3472 to the high price at 1.3958. That was a pretty strong move a short period of time. Correcting modest lower makes sense ahead of the risk event.USDCAD Technical SummaryCurrent SituationMoving lower due to US dollar weakness ahead of the election.Failed to maintain upside momentum after breaking 2022 highs on Friday.Gapped lower on Monday, with ongoing downward momentum.Key LevelsSupport1.38506: Rising 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart.1.3833-1.38475: Swing area.1.3813: Swing lows from two weeks ago.1.3786-1.37919: Swing area.1.37526: 38.2% retracement of the move up from September low.Resistance1.38641.38881.3945: August high.1.3958: Friday's high, highest level since 2022.1.3977: 2022 high.Market ContextTrading around swing area (1.38337) and below 100-bar moving average (1.3506).Neutralizing after sharp trend move in October and early November.Correcting lower ahead of risk event.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – The market awaits the US election result
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-technical-analysis-the-market-awaits-the-us-election-result-20241105/
Fundamental
OverviewThe US Dollar started the
week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a
pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US
election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the
greenback, while a blue sweep as the most bearish. The price action will
likely be choppy until we start to get a better sense of who’s going to win, so
the best strategy would be to wait for the results, because the trend that will
be set will likely last for months anyway. On the AUD side, the RBA (https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/reserve-bank-of-australia-leaves-cash-rate-unchanged-at-435-as-expected-20241105/) kept the cash rate unchanged today as expected
but lowered growth and inflation forecasts slightly. This is just another
subtle change towards a more dovish stance, although the market’s focus is now
elsewhere.AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD pulled back to the key 0.6622 level amid a weaker US Dollar.
This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above
the level to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into
the 0.68 handle.AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke above the downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) that was defining the bearish
momentum on this timeframe. This might be a signal of a deeper pullback to
follow. There’s not much else we can add here as the sellers will lean on the
0.6722 level to position for new lows, while the buyers will look for a break
higher to target new highs. AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely lean on it to position for
the break of the 0.6722 level, while the sellers will look for a break lower to
increase the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is the US Presidential Election Day but we will also get the US ISM
Services PMI report. On Thursday, we have the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC
Policy Decision. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US University of
Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – The greenback loses ground heading into the election
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-the-greenback-loses-ground-heading-into-the-election-20241105/
Fundamental
OverviewThe US Dollar started the
week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a
pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US
election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the
greenback, while a blue sweep as the most bearish. The price action will
likely be choppy until we start to get a better sense of who’s going to win, so
the best strategy would be to wait for the results, because the trend that will
be set will likely last for months anyway. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD bounced off of the key swing level at 1.0777 as the buyers
stepped in with a defined risk below the level to position for a pullback into
the 1.10 handle. The sellers will want to see the price breaking below the
swing level to increase the bearish bets into the 1.06 handle next.EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) defining the current bullish momentum
on this timeframe. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline to keep
targeting new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to position
for the break below the key 1.0777 level.EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with higher highs and higher lows
indicating a bullish trend. There’s not much else we can add here as the
election noise will likely lead to a choppy price action until we get the results.
The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is the US Presidential Election Day but we will also get the US ISM
Services PMI report. On Thursday, we have the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC
Policy Decision. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of
Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – It’s the US Election Day
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-its-the-us-election-day-20241105/
Fundamental
OverviewThe US Dollar started the
week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a
pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US
election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the
greenback, while a blue sweep as the most bearish. The price action will
likely be choppy until we start to get a better sense of who’s going to win, so
the best strategy would be to wait for the results, because the trend that will
be set will likely last for months anyway. USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY is consolidating around the key 152.00 handle. The buyers will
likely keep on stepping in around this level with a defined risk below it to
position for the continuation of the uptrend. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to extend the pullback into the
149.40 level next. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action around the 152.00 handle as the
market awaits the US Election result to pick a direction. There’s not much else
we can add here as the buyers will likely pile in to position for a rally into
new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target the 149.40
level.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) defining the current bearish
momentum on this timeframe. If we get a bounce here, the sellers will likely
lean on the trendline to position for the break of the 152.00 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets
into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is the US Presidential Election Day but we will also get the US ISM
Services PMI report. On Thursday, we have the Japanese wage growth data, the US
Jobless Claims and the FOMC Policy Decision. On Friday, we conclude the week
with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD falls below the 100 and 200 hour MAs. First break below 200 hour MA since October 2
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-falls-below-the-100-and-200-hour-mas-first-break-below-200-hour-ma-since-october-2-20241104/
The USDCAD broke higher at the end of last week and in the process extended above high from August at 1.39458. The high price reached 1.3958 and closed the week at 1.39484.However, after the weekend election poll news, yields moved lower, the USD moved lower and the USDCAD gapped down as well. That took the price back below the old 2024 high and also took the price below the 100-hour MA at 1.39168 and more recently the 200 hour MA at 1.38896. The break below the 200-hour MA is the first break since October 2 (over a month ago). So sellers are making a play. The 200-hour MA is now close resistance/risk for sellers looking for more downside momentum. On the downside there is some support at 1.3864 area and below that a swing area between 1.38337 and 1.38475. The rising 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart is at 1.3843. Move below that area opens the door for more downside corrective probiing after the trend move higher in October. A move back above the 200 hour MA at 1.38895 would have traders looking back toward 1.39168. Of course lots of volatility is expected this week as a result of the US elections followed by the US interest-rate decision on Thursday. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. What they do in December and going forward would be the focus from the meeting. With volatility expected, it is important to understand the technical levels in play as they give traders the risk defining levels, and targets going forward. ------------------------------------------------USDCAD Technical AnalysisThe USDCAD broke higher late last week, surpassing August's high (1.39458) and reaching 1.3958, but subsequently gapped down due to weekend election poll news.Current Market SituationThe price fell below the old 2024 high, 100-hour MA (1.39168), and 200-hour MA (1.38896), indicating sellers' momentum.Key LevelsResistance:1.38896 (200-hour MA, close resistance/risk for sellers)1.39168 (100-hour MA)Support:1.3864 (support area)1.38337-1.38475 (swing area)1.3843 (rising 100-bar MA on 4-hour chart)Market OutlookA break below 1.3843 may lead to further downside correction, while a move above 1.38896 could shift focus back to 1.39168.Key EventsUS elections (this week)US interest-rate decision (Thursday, expected 25 basis point cut)Understanding these technical levels is crucial amid expected volatility, providing risk-defining levels and targets for traders.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
below the 200-hour MA (first break since October 2) or above the 100-hour MA again at 1.39168. The price has moved below the 100-hour MA since October 2, but those breaks failed including on Thursday and Friday last week (but only briefly). AUDUSD: The AUDUSD moved higher at the open, but stalled at 0.66184. That was near the low of a swing area target between 0.66189 to 0.66277. The 200 day MA is at 0.66277. The price of the AUDUSD needs to get and stay above that area (and MA) to give the buyers more control. On the first shot, the buyers missed. The sellers remain in control. The price is back down at 0.6596 currently. On the downside watch the 61.8% of the move up from the August low at 0.6575 to give sellers more control. NZDUSD: The NZDUSD moved above the 200-hour MA earlier today and above the high from last week at 0.60000 too. The high reached 0.60144 but rotated back down. The price moved back below the broken 200-hour MA at 0.5985 but remained above the 100-hour MA at 0.59744. The current price is back above the 200-hour MA at 0.59924. The price needs to get back above the high from last week at 0.6000 level to give the buyers more confidence today.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Positive gap on OPEC+ production hike delay
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-technical-analysis-positive-gap-on-opec-production-hike-delay-20241104/
Fundamental
OverviewCrude oil opened the day
with a positive gap today following the weekend news (https://www.forexlive.com/news/opec-agrees-to-delay-december-oil-output-increase-20241103/) of OPEC+ delaying the December
production hike. In the big picture, central
bank easing generally leads the manufacturing cycle, so we can expect global
growth to pick up and support the crude oil market. One risk that might be
weighing on the market is the US election as a Trump victory might be bearish
due to increased supply expectations.It’s worth remembering that
in 2016, crude oil did fall initially on Trump’s victory but eventually rallied
for more than 20% in the following three months on higher global growth
expectations. In case we get a red sweep,
the market will likely focus on global growth with Trump’s tax cuts. In case we
get Trump and a divided Congress, we can expect him to focus majorly on tariffs
and that could dent global growth and put some pressure on the market.With Harris as President and a divided Congress we should see crude oil gaining as she needs a legislative action to raise taxes and has a
lighter stance on tariffs. A blue sweep could still be bullish but with a lesser degree.Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil is now back at the key 71.67 resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) following the OPEC+ production hike
delay. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the
bullish bets into the 77.60 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will
likely lean on the resistance to position for a drop into the 65 handle.Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) defining the current bullish
momentum. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to keep bidding the
price up, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to
increase the bearish bets into the 65 handle.Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see the gap higher today following the weekend news with the price now near the
key resistance. There’s not much to add here as the buyers will look for a
break higher, while the sellers will step in to position for a drop into new
lows. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US ISM Services PMI and the US Presidential Election. On
Thursday, we have the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC Policy Decision. On
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
(https://www.forexlive.com/).
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
Is Apple stock buy or sell?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/is-apple-stock-buy-or-sell-20241103/
APPL stock outlook: Time to sell and watch for VWAP reaction at $205Apple Inc. (AAPL) has long been a shining star in the stock market, winning the hearts of investors and traders alike. But even the best stocks need a breather, and recent price action hints that now might be the time to shift gears. Don’t worry—this doesn’t mean giving up on AAPL. It’s about being smart, taking some chips off the table, and watching for that perfect moment to jump back in. Let’s dive into why selling a portion of your AAPL holdings and waiting for a potential reaction at the $205 VWAP could be a solid move. Further lower, we have the $200 round number where a lot of liquadity is waiting with pre-set and will-be-set orders by traders, should the stock price declines to that zone. And we have the 196'ish level which is the top of the previous long consolidation zone. Dip seekers may want to cast a net of buys at $190 to $206 for patient stock accumilation and dip buying, as they average out an entry price at apx $200 or even slightly lower.Why sell Apple stocks or take partial profits on AAPL now?If you’ve been riding AAPL’s upward trend, congrats—you’ve earned it. But let’s not ignore the signs pointing to consolidation after a big run. For over a year, AAPL has bounced within a 17% range, creating a pretty clear trading zone. Resistance near $235 has once again triggered some profit-taking, adding to the current dip. This isn’t unusual; it’s actually quite healthy for a stock to pause and recalibrate. So, taking partial profits now could protect some gains and free up capital for a potential buy at a more attractive price.Key VWAP level at $205 – the sweet spot to watchNow, here’s where things get interesting. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) near $205 has acted as a solid support in past consolidations. It’s a place where buyers often return to show their strength. If AAPL does drift down to this level, it’s time to pay attention. A bounce here could signal that it’s game on for another climb, while a break below might mean more downside is coming. Either way, $205 is the line in the sand.What to keep an eye onPrice reaction at $205: If AAPL makes its way to $205, how it reacts could be a big clue. A strong bounce could mean buyers are stepping up, setting the stage for a rebound. But if it breaks below this level with conviction, it might be wise to hold off before buying back in.Volume and momentum: Watch the volume as AAPL approaches $205. Heavy volume that pushes the stock back up can be a sign of renewed buying interest. But if volume surges and the price keeps slipping, that’s a caution flag.Overall market sentiment: Let’s not forget that AAPL doesn’t move in a vacuum. Keep an eye on the tech sector and the broader market. A strong tech rally could support AAPL, while market-wide jitters might make any dip more pronounced.I am a stubborn holder of Apple stock and you can't time the market.You can't time the market but you can mitigate risk by lowering your position size. Here’s the comforting part—AAPL remains a stellar long-term pick. Taking partial profits now isn’t about losing faith; it’s about being strategic. Waiting for the stock to approach $205 and observing its behavior there can set you up for an even better re-entry point. Be prepared for some volatility and be ready to act based on what unfolds at this pivotal level.In the end, stepping back to reassess and possibly buy back at a lower price can be the smart, patient move. The VWAP’s history as a support level makes it the perfect spot for a potential showdown. Whether it holds or breaks will determine the next chapter for AAPL—and you’ll be ready.AAPL stock news: Quick takeaways you need to knowLast Updated: November 03, 2024Apple's new AI Push to offset iPhone sales
Crude oil price forecast
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-price-forecast-20241102/
Crude oil price outlook: key levels to watch amid bearish controlIf you’re tracking the crude oil market, buckle up—things are heating up, and not just on the charts. As the price of light crude (CL1!) dances around some serious technical levels, traders and investors alike are on high alert. The bearish vibe is alive and kicking, fueled by a blend of chart signals and macroeconomic worries. So, what’s next for this slippery commodity? Let’s break down the key action points and what you should keep an eye on in the weeks to come.The previous key resistance at $78.50 – the August open line in the sandOne spot that’s got everyone’s attention is the resistance zone at around $78.50, just below the August open of $78.59. This area isn’t just another number—it’s a big, flashing “Stop” sign where high liquidity meets past price action. If oil can push past this barrier, it could trigger a shift in momentum, breathing life into the bulls. But for now, $78.50 is the ceiling that keeps bullish dreams in check.The critical current resistance at $71.50 – bears have got the control as long as price can not cross up the August low On the flip side, $71.50 is the level that’s holding the bearish party together. Think of it as the last line of defense for the bears. This August low has acted as a solid pivot, bouncing prices back and forth like a game of ping-pong. As long as oil stays below this mark, the bears have the upper hand. If prices start flirting with a break below, brace yourselves—things could get dicey fast.Potential drop to $66-$67 – the next pit stopShould oil crack that $71.50 level, all eyes will shift to the $66-$67 range. This area isn’t just a shot in the dark; it’s lined up with historical support, a place where bargain-hunting buyers might step in. But here’s the kicker: if that level doesn’t hold, we’re looking at a deeper slide into uncharted territory.The light crude oil futures technical tale: patterns and trendsOil’s chart is telling a story of downward momentum that’s hard to ignore. A descending trendline stretching over two years is shouting out loud and clear: lower highs, steady bearish pressure. Mix that with the usual suspects—global economic jitters, tightening financial conditions—and it’s no wonder the technical landscape is leaning bearish. That said, never say never; a wild card could flip the script.What to keep on your radar for oil prices and technical junctionsTraders and investors should have their checklists ready:Price action at $71.50: Will this continue to be the the ceiling, or will it break up for much futher upside?Volume watch at resistance: Any breakout above $71.50 and $78.50 may be tested again. The initial breakout up, should it happen, needs to come with volume and conviction. No half-hearted moves here.The bigger picture: Don’t sleep on macroeconomic trends and geopolitical twists—these can shake up oil prices faster than you can say “OPEC.”The bottom line for my oil price predictionRight now, the stage is set for a bearish narrative as long as prices stay below that crucial $71.50 level. I am keeping my eye on swing short target of $67 but will flip to bullish if I see 2 consecutive days close above $71.50. Whether you’re trading or investing, keep your eyes wide open and your strategies nimble. This market doesn’t play around, and neither should you.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD lower on the week but buyers and sellers are consolidating the declines
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-lower-on-the-week-but-buyers-and-sellers-are-consolidating-the-declines-20241101/
The AUDUSD is lower on the week, but since bottoming on Wednesday, the price has moved up and down. IN the process, the price has seen the price move above and below the 61.8% of the move up from the August low at 0.6575. The price over the last day or so has also moved above and below the falling 100 hour MA (which caught up with the price this week).When the price action trades above and below technical levels, it says to me that the market is unsure of the next move. Having said that, in the hourly chart below, the price has been holding support at the 100 hour MA over the last few hours. Are buyers making a play? If so, they would need to get and stay above the falling 200 hour MA at 0.66046. If that can happen trades will look toward the 200 day MA and a swing area between 0.66189 and 0.66279. Get above that level and other targets including the 50% at 0.6645 and the 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.66535 would be targeted.Conversely, a break below the 100 hour moving average and then the low for the weekend 0.65357 would have traders looking down toward a swing area going back to the end of July and early August between 0.6471 and 0.64864.AUDUSD Technical AnalysisCurrent Market Status:AUDUSD lower on the week, but rebounding since Wednesday.Price action indicates market uncertainty.Key Levels:Support Levels:100-hour Moving Average (MA): (falling)Weekend low: 0.65357Swing area (July-August): 0.6471-0.64864Resistance Levels:61.8% retracement: 0.6575200-hour MA: 0.66046200-day MA at 0.66279:Swing area: 0.66189-0.6627950% retracement: 0.6645100-bar MA (4-hour): 0.66535Market Direction:Buyers attempting to regain control.Break above 200-hour MA (0.66046) needed to confirm bullish momentum.Failure to hold above 100-hour MA may lead to bearish continuation.Possible Scenarios:Bullish:Break above 0.66046.Target: 0.66189-0.66279, 0.6645, 0.66535.Bearish:Break below 0.65357.Target: 0.6471-0.64864.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The USDCHF still in a narrow trading range between 0.8632 below and 0.8799 above
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-usdchf-still-in-a-narrow-trading-range-between-08632-below-and-08799-above-20241101/
The USDCHF moved lower after the US jobs report but held above support near 0.8632 (the low reached 0.86385 and bounced). The move back higher has now taken the price back above the 100/200 hour MAs which are near converged near 0.8661. The price has moved to a new high for the day at 0.86937, but is still short of the resistance for the day and for the week at 0.8700. The pair needs to get and stay outside the trading range that is confining the pair over the last 12 days. Until then, the buyers and sellers will battle between the extremes. USDCHF Market AnalysisKey Points:The USDCHF has been trading in a narrow range of 68 pips (0.8632-0.8700) over the last 12 days.Traders are awaiting a breakout.Sellers attempted to push prices down but stalled at the 38.2% floor of the July 2024 high.Prices rebounded higher, aided by lower-than-expected CPI (0.6%).The key resistance level remains at 0.8700 (high reached 0.8685).Technical Levels:Resistance: 0.8700Support: 0.8632 (38.2% floor)Moving Averages (MAs) between extremes will influence short-term bias (near 0.8661).Market Sentiment:Traders are waiting for a clear direction, with sellers failing to sustain downward momentum and buyers seeking a breakout above 0.8700.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
NASDAQ index soaring and on pace for a new record close
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-index-soaring-and-on-pace-for-a-new-record-close-20241025/
The NASDAQ index is soaring as yields back off. Durable goods were better than expected with ex Boeing numbers showing strength. The Michigan consumer sentiment came in better with inflation expectations lower than last month at 2.7% (versus 2.9%).The NASDAQ index is now up 243 points or 1.32% at 18658.80. The index is also trading to a new all-time high at 18674.37. For the week, the index is up 0.90%. A gain will extend its up streak to seven consecutive weeks.The S&P index is up 46.67 points or 0.80% at 5856.96. However, for the trading week and is still down -0.13%. A decline for the week would snap a six-week up streak, but there is still time to erase the small decline.The Dow industrial average is up 196 points or 0.46% at 42568.70. It is still down -1.64% this week despite the gain.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for Oct 25 w/ a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-oct-25-w-a-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20241025/
In the kickstart video, I take a technical look at the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD , USDJPY and GBPUSD.EURUSD:Key Levels:100-hour moving average: 1.0807 (support)200-hour moving average: 1.0836 (resistance). Get and stay above is needed to increase the bullish biasA break higher would target the 200-day moving average: 1.0870 (next target). The 61.8% of the range since the June low is at 1.08746 increasing that areas importance going forward. Move below the 1.0810 and the the 100 hour MA at 1.0807 and the swing low (August 1)at 1.07767 would be targeted. (support)Current Situation:EURUSD broke above 100-hour moving average, indicating short-term bullish bias.Price testing 200-hour moving average, encountering resistance.Buyers and sellers are battling between hourly moving averages.Next Moves:Break above 200-hour moving average needed to strengthen bullish bias.Break below 100-hour moving average and swing low could lead to further decline.USDJPYKey Levels:Swing area: 151.856-151.937 (resistance)200-day moving average: 151.407 (support)61.8% retracement (July high): 153.397 (resistance)Move below the 200 day MA and the 50% retracement (broken) is the next target at 150.757 (support)Move below the 50% and the 100-day moving average: 150.612 (support)Current Situation:USDJPY testing trades above and below swing area near 151.90Price bouncing within swing area, indicating indecision.Trading range is modest, suggesting potential for breakout.Next Moves:Break above swing area and 61.8% retracement would fuel upside momentum.Move below 200-day moving average could strengthen bearish bias, targeting 50% retracement and 100-day moving average.Additional Insights:Quiet trading on Fridays may lead to range-bound activity.Momentum away from swing area could trigger next directional move.GBPUSDKey Levels:100-day moving average: 1.29678 (support)Psychological resistance: 1.3000 (resistance)Falling 100-bar moving average (4-hour chart)becomes a target on the break of 1.3000. That level comes in at 1.3043 (resistance)50% midpoint of range (August low) is also in play above at 1.30488 (resistance)A move below the 100 ay MA at 1.29678 would target a support swing level at 1.2938 (support)Current Situation:GBPUSD broke below 1.2938 support, then reclaimed it.Price trading above and below 100-day moving average but not above and moving toward 1.3000.Resistance at 1.3000, a key psychological level.Next Moves:Break above 1.3000 and falling 100-bar MA could target 1.30488.Fall below 100-day moving average and 1.2938 support could lead to further decline.Additional Insights:Price action suggests indecision, seeking direction.Clearing 1.3000 resistance could shift bias to bullish.Failure to hold above 1.2938 support may increase bearish pressure.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF falls below 100 bar MA on 4-hour and stays below, but support holds at swing area.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-falls-below-100-bar-ma-on-4-hour-and-stays-below-but-support-holds-at-swing-area-20241105/
The USDCHF is trading up and down in trading today as the pair buys time ahead of the election results. The low for the price action has found support buyers in a key swing area between 0.86078 and 0.8619. That area also held support on Monday. On the upside, the 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart comes in at 0.86524 and represents a close resistance target.On a move below the swing area at 0.86078, the rising 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart comes in at 0.85804. A move below that level would open the door for further selling toward 0.85368.Conversely on the top side, a break above 0.86524, the key 100 day moving average at 0.86718 would be targeted. The price last week did move above that moving average on four separate occasions but could not sustain momentumon each break. The 50% midpoint of the move down from the July high to the September low comes and 0.87116 and that would be another key target that if broken would give the buyers much more control.------------------------------------------------------------------------USDCHF Technical SummaryCurrent SituationTrading range-bound ahead of election results.Support found in key swing area between 0.86078 and 0.8619.Key LevelsSupport0.86078-0.8619: Key swing area.0.85804: Rising 200-bar MA on 4-hour chart.0.85368: Further selling target.Resistance0.86524: 100-bar MA on 4-hour chart.0.86718: 100-day MA.0.87116: 50% midpoint of July high to September low.Market ContextRange-bound trading ahead of election results.Buyers seeking control above 0.86524.Sellers targeting breaks below 0.86078.Key TakeawaysBreak above 0.86524 targets 0.86718 and 0.87116.Break below 0.86078 targets 0.85804 and 0.85368.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
What key levels are in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD through the US elections
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/what-key-levels-are-in-play-for-the-eurusd-usdjpy-and-gbpusd-through-the-us-elections-20241105/
The US election day will keep the markets on edge, but technically, the process should be followed. The price action and the tools will help to define the the bias, define the risk and define the targets.. In this video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD and outline the key levels in play, so you can be aware and prepared through the potential market volatility.EURUSD: THe key for the EURUSD is that the 200 day MA held support at the end of day yesterday and into the Asian session today. The subsequent move to the upside saw the price move to a higher swing area betwene 1.0899 and 1.09125. The 50% of the move up from the April 2024 low is also in that area. Going forward, a move above would open the door for more upside momentum with the 100 day MA at 1.09401. Above that and the falling 200 bar MA at 1.09564 would be targets. On the downside, a move back below the 200-day MA at 1.0692 is needed to tilt the bias more to the downside. Move below that level takes the price back into the Red Box, with the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.08460 followed by the swing area (and low of Red Box) down between 1.07609 and 1.07767. USDJPY: The USDJPY found support buyers at the 200 day MA yesterday . Recall not last week, but the week before, support buyers also stalled the fall at the 200 day MA. That MA is being approached by the rising 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Going foward if the 200 day MA can hold support, the buyers remain in play with more work to do. What is the "work to do?". On the topsde, the 61.8% of the move down from the July high comes in at 153.387. Above that is the highs from last week at 153.88 and the high going back in time to end of July at the same level (the last three highs has stalled at the same level). That sets that level as a key resistance target. Conversely, on a break of the 200 day MA (and staying below) would have the price targeting the 50% of the range since the July high at 150.757 to the 100 day MA at 150.298. Break below those levels and the sellers can prove further. GBPUSD....The GBPUSD has moved back above the 1.3000 level in the US morning session after stalling at support yesterday at support at 1.2938 (lows and highs going back to mid-July. The move back above the 1.3000 level gives the buyers more control with a swing area at 1.3043 to 1.3058 as the next targes followed by the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.31125.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – The pair retreats on higher Harris winning odds
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-technical-analysis-the-pair-retreats-on-higher-harris-winning-odds-20241105/
Fundamental
OverviewThe US Dollar started the
week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a
pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US
election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the
greenback, while a blue sweep as the most bearish. The price action will
likely be choppy until we start to get a better sense of who’s going to win, so
the best strategy would be to wait for the results, because the trend that will
be set will likely last for months anyway. USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD pulled back from the 2-year highs amid some greenback weakness.
The buyers will want to see the price breaking above the high to increase the
bullish bets into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break below the
1.3860 level to start looking for more downside.USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke below the minor upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) that was defining the bullish momentum
on this timeframe. These are generally signals of weakening momentum, so we
might see a deeper pullback. The buyers will likely step in around the 1.3860
level, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish
bets into the 1.3785 level next. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action of the last few days as the market
awaits the US election result. There’s not much else we can add here as the
election noise will likely lead to a choppy price action until we get the
results. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is the US Presidential Election Day but we will also get the US ISM
Services PMI report. On Thursday, we have the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC
Policy Decision. On Friday, we conclude the week with the Canadian Labour Market
report and the US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF Technical Analysis – Higher Harris odds weigh on the US Dollar
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-technical-analysis-higher-harris-odds-weigh-on-the-us-dollar-20241105/
Fundamental
OverviewThe US Dollar started the
week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a
pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US
election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the
greenback, while a blue sweep as the most bearish. The price action will
likely be choppy until we start to get a better sense of who’s going to win, so
the best strategy would be to wait for the results, because the trend that will
be set will likely last for months anyway. USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF rejected the key resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 0.87 handle where
we had also the trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/). The sellers stepped in with
a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the 0.8333
level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that that the price is approaching the support zone around the 0.86 handle.
That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level
to position for the break above the key trendline. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
into the 0.8333 level.USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action as the market awaits the US
election result. There’s not much to add here as the buyers will look for a
bounce, while the sellers will look for a break. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) is the US Presidential Election Day but we will also get the US ISM
Services PMI report. On Thursday, we have the US
Jobless Claims and the FOMC Policy Decision. On Friday, we conclude the week
with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD is back lower after run higher stalls near key topside target resistance.What next?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-is-back-lower-after-run-higher-stalls-near-key-topside-target-resistancewhat-next-20241104/
The RBA will be announcing its rate decision later tonight/tomorrow in Australia. The expectation is for no change in policy. Focus will be on what is ahead for the central bankTechnically, the price high reached 0.66184 in the early Asian session. That took the price to the low of a swing area between 0.66189 to 0.66277. The 200-day MA is at the high of that swing area at 0.66277. Holding resistance against that area increases the areas importance going forward. A move above that level will target the 50% of the range since the August low. That level is also joined by the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Move above that level and traders will be looking toward the key 100-day MA at 0.6692.The price did move lower after peaking and has moved back down toward the 61.8% of the same trading range (from the August low). Admittedly, last week the price traded above and below that retracement level without much respect from a technical perspective. Nevertheless if the price were to move below, it would add to the negative bias. Move below that level,, and swing low from August 15 at 0.6562, followed by the low from last week at 0.6537 targeted. A swing area between 0.6471 and 0.6486 would be other targets.---------------------------------------------------------AUDUSD Technical AnalysisRate Decision PreviewRBA rate decision tonight/tomorrow; no policy change expected.Current Market SituationPrice reached 0.66184 in early Asian session, testing swing area resistance (0.66189-0.66277).Key LevelsResistance:0.66277 (200-day MA, swing area high)0.6692 (100-day MA, key resistance)Support:0.6562 (August 15 swing low)0.6537 (last week's low)0.6471-0.6486 (swing area)Near-Term OutlookHolding resistance at 0.66277 increases its importance.Breakout TargetsUpside:50% retracement of August low range100-bar MA on 4-hour chartDownside:61.8% retracement of August low rangeNegative bias below 0.6537A move above 0.66277 targets 0.6692, while a break below 0.6537 opens up downside targets.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for Nov 4 w/a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-nov-4-wa-technical-look-at-eurusd-usdjpy-and-gbpusd-20241104/
The USD is lower to start the trading week (helped by the Pres. Polls over the weekend). The moves in the 3 major currency pairs did move to corresponding technical targets and stalled.EURUSD: For the EURUSD, it move up to test the 50% midpoint of the move up from April 2024 low and the swing area at 1.09069 and 1.09126. Sellers leaned near the high of that area and stalled. It will take a move above that level to increase the bullish bias. On the downside, the 100-day MA and high of swing area (around 1.0869) will need to be broken to increase the bearish bias today and going forward. USDJPY: The USDJPY moved down to test the 200-day MA at 151.556 in the early Asian and early US session and found buyer. It will take a move below that MA (and stay below) to tilt the bias a little lower (at least in the short term) with work to do. The rising 100 bar MA at 151.527, the 50% midpoint of the range since July high at 150.757 and the 100 day MA at 150.355 are targets on the downside that would need to be broken to increase the bearish bias. GBPUSD:The technical story in the GBPUSD is focused on 1.30000. The broken 38.2% is at that level (since April low). The 100 bar MA on 4-hour chart is at 1.2992. The 100-day MA is at 1.29807. The price is back below those levels. It would take a move above all - and stay above - to increase the bullish bias. On the downside, the 1.2938 needs to be broken to increase the bearish bias.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
US dollar is lower to start the new week after Harris jump in poll
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/us-dollar-is-lower-to-start-the-new-week-after-harris-jump-in-poll-20241104/
The influential Selzer poll out of Iowa (https://www.forexlive.com/news/harris-odds-jump-further-after-influential-iowa-poll-shows-her-with-a-shocking-lead-20241103/) showed a Harris lead over the weekend. That is not supposed to happen, and led to the USD moviing lower on the news. The US yields are lower. The US stocks are trading mixed (Dow modestly lower, S&P and Nasdaq modestly higher). European stocks are mostly higher. 10 year yield in Europe are mixed (Germans down -0.3 bps, UK gilt up 0.8 bps). In the European session the economic data was mixed. EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI: 54.5 (actual) vs 53.1 (forecast). StrongerEUR Italian Manufacturing PMI: 46.9 (actual) vs 48.8 (forecast). WeakerEUR French Final Manufacturing PMI: 44.5 (actual) vs 44.5 (forecast). Met expectationsEUR German Final Manufacturing PMI: 43.0 (actual) vs 42.6 (forecast). StrongerEUR Final Manufacturing PMI: 46.0 (actual) vs 45.9 (forecast). Marginally strongerEUR Sentix Investor Confidence: -12.8 (actual) vs -12.7 (forecast) Met estimatesUS electon on Tuesday. Fed on Thursday (25 basis point cut expected). The RBA will anounce its rate decision on Tuesday (later tonight) with no change expected). The BOE is expected to cut 25 basis points.What are the technicals saying for the major currency pairs vs the USD.EURUSD: The EURUSD gapped higher and in the process moved back above the 100 bar MA at 1.0849 AND the 200 day MA at 1.0869 (and swing area up to 1.0872). The price moved up to a swing area near 1.0899 and 1.09126. The midpoint of the move up from April low comes in at 1.09069. The high reached just above at 1.0914 just above the high target. The price is trading at 1.0905 currently. Get and stay above the 1.09126 would have traders looking toward the 100-day MA at 1.09388 and a swing area up to 1.0949. USDJPY. The USDJPY gapped below the 100 and 200-hour MAs (at 152.76 and 152.65 respectively). The move lower also moved below a swing area and down to the 200-day MA at 151.556 9the low reached 151.527). The 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, 50% of the move lower from July at 150.757 and the 100 day MA at 150.355. There is a lot of support targets in the way for more downside. It will take breaks below each to tilt the bias more in the favor of the sellers. Each - including the 200-day MA - could stall the fall too. A move back above 151.937 could lead to more of a bounce after the 200-day MA test.GBPUSD: The GBUSD moved higher over the weekend and in the process extended above teh 100 day MA at 1.29807 and toward the 1.3000 natural resistance level. That is near the broken 38.2% of the move up from the April low at 1.2999. The high price reached 1.29983 and selles stalled the rise. That 1.3000 level needs to be broken to increase the bullish bias going forward. The price isa at 1.2962 currently to start the US session. Last week, the price moved above that MA level and failed. On the downside, there is support at 1.2938 is a key swing level that if broken would increase the bearish bias once again (see solid read on the chart below). USDCHF. The USDCHF Is making a break back below the 38.2% of the move down from the July 2024 high at 0.86318. That area has been a tough nut to crack since breaking above (see Red Box on the chart below). The price has been trading above and below the 38.2% level in the current hourly bar, after moving to the high of a swing area at 0.86078 to 0.8619 and bouncing. It will take a move above the 0.86318 and then the broken 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.86475 to give the buyers more confidence once again. USDCAD: The USDCAD is trading between the 100 and 200-hour MA between 1.39168 to 1.38889. The low reached 1.3892 and bounced modestly. The price is trading at 1.38993. The traders will be looking for a move
Gold Technical Analysis – Some de-risking going into the US Election
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-some-de-risking-going-into-the-us-election-20241104/
Fundamental
OverviewLast Thursday, gold got hit
by some strong selling pressure following the US
Jobless Claims (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-216k-vs-230k-estimate-20241031/) and the US
Core PCE (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-september-pce-core-inflation-03-vs-03-expected-20241031/) report. The data keeps on showing that the US economy is doing
pretty good, and we even saw some acceleration in activity in other data
points. The data and the proximity
to the US election might have triggered some de-risking. In the bigger picture,
gold remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall
amid the Fed’s easing cycle. The pullbacks will likely be triggered by a
repricing in rate cuts expectations but unless the Fed’s reaction function
changes, the uptrend should remain intact.Tomorrow, we have the US Presidential
Election and that could be a huge catalyst for gold. In fact, a Trump victory,
and more specifically a Republican sweep, will likely raise real yields on
higher growth and less rate cuts expectations and trigger a strong selloff.Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold dropped from the all-time high as the market is probably
de-risking before the US Presidential Election. From a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the major
trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/). The sellers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price breaking lower to start targeting new lows.Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke below the minor upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) that was defining the bullish momentum
on this timeframe. This could be a signal of a bigger pullback as the price
retested the previous support
now turned resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-polarity-20220408/) and fell back to the recent lows. The sellers will likely
target the major upward trendline now, while the buyers will want to see the price
rising back above the 2760 level to pile back in for a rally into a new
all-time high.Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a support around the 2730 level. The sellers will want to
see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the major
trendline, while the buyers will likely lean on the level to position for the
break above the 2760 level. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US ISM Services PMI and the US Presidential Election. On Thursday,
we have the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC Policy Decision. On Friday, we conclude
the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Apple is rolling out new AI products to help cushion potential drops in iPhone sales. This move showcases their commitment to staying innovative and diversifying their tech lineup. Analysts are optimistic, suggesting this could boost market sentiment and strengthen Apple’s long-term growth prospects, even amid economic uncertainties.Berkshire Hathaway trims Apple stake
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reduced its Apple holdings significantly in Q4 2022, cutting its position by over 33%, equivalent to $16 billion. Despite this, Berkshire still holds $54.7 billion worth of AAPL shares, signaling cautious confidence. The strategic shift raised eyebrows but also highlights Buffett’s rebalancing strategy to mitigate risk while maintaining a significant stake.Cash pile grows at Berkshire
Following the reduction in its Apple stake, Berkshire’s cash reserves swelled to $131 billion. This suggests that Buffett is gearing up for potential acquisitions or new investments. Traders should watch closely for Buffett’s next moves, as these could impact both Apple’s stock and broader market trends.Bottom line for Apple investors
While Berkshire’s sell-off might cause short-term concern, Apple’s diversification into AI and sustained tech dominance keep it a strong long-term pick. Stay vigilant and consider taking partial profits to mitigate risk, especially as new buying opportunities could emerge if AAPL dips further.AAPL stock valuation: Key points at a glanceStrong P/FCF ratio: AAPL’s Price-to-Free Cash Flow ratio of 30.73 highlights a solid cash position, appealing for long-term investors due to its potential for reinvestment and shareholder returns.Robust market cap: With a market capitalization of $3.34 trillion, Apple’s valuation underscores its strong financial standing and growth potential, supported by projected EPS growth of 21.31% this year and 12.14% next year.Forward P/E advantage: Apple’s Forward P/E of 26.95, lower than its current P/E of 36.72, suggests anticipated earnings growth, indicating shares may be undervalued.Analyst sentiment: Despite recent downgrades by some firms, the general consensus remains positive, with buy and overweight ratings from major analysts like JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, reflecting confidence in Apple’s outlook.AAPL stock analyst recommendations:Sure, Jefferies and KeyBanc Capital Markets recently handed out some downgrades, but don’t hit the panic button just yet—most analysts are still quite optimistic. Heavy hitters like JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are keeping the faith with repeated buy and overweight ratings, suggesting that Apple’s stock isn’t losing its shine.Several firms, including Monness Crespi & Hardt and JP Morgan, have been bumping up their price targets significantly. Translation? They’re seeing big potential for Apple’s performance in the market. Investors should keep an eye on these bold moves—they’re like breadcrumbs leading to confidence in Apple’s future growth.The wave of upgrades and renewed buy ratings from players like Loop Capital and DA Davidson, who’ve upped their price targets by a good margin, shows analysts are doubling down on their positive outlook. It’s a trend that screams “confidence,” perfectly in line with searches for ‘AAPL analyst recommendation’ and reinforcing a bullish vibe for Apple’s prospects.AAPL stock insider trading insights:Executive sell-offs: CEO Tim Cook and CFO Luca Maestri recently sold shares worth $50 million and $13.4 million, respectively, potentially signaling caution.Strategic implications: Continued sales by financial and legal executives, such as the Principal Accounting Officer and General Counsel, could be a cue for investors to review their positions carefully.Overall, while AAPL remains strong, recent insider activity and valuation metrics call for a balanced, informed approach.Always sell or buy Apple stock at your own risk only. Visit ForexLive.com for additional, original views for stock investors and traders
BTCUSD price prediction, looking for another test of the ATH
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/btcusd-price-prediction-looking-for-another-test-of-the-ath-20241103/
Bitcoin price forecast: on track for another ATH test, but watch these levelsIf you’re riding the Bitcoin wave, hang tight—things are getting interesting. As BTC/USD keeps testing significant levels, traders and investors are on edge, waiting to see if Bitcoin has what it takes to revisit its all-time high (ATH). With technical analysis pointing to both promising and cautionary signals, here’s what you need to know.BTCUSD price resistance at $73,794 – the ATH retest zoneThe big question on everyone’s mind: will Bitcoin push back to its ATH of $73,794? This level is more than just a psychological milestone—it’s a test of Bitcoin’s strength after a rollercoaster year. If BTC manages to push through this ceiling, we could see a fresh wave of enthusiasm among the bulls. But breaking an ATH is never easy, so keep your eyes on volume and momentum as price approaches this key marker.The line in the sand between bitcoin bulls and bears at $65,500 - bulls should set a stop thereBefore getting too excited about ATHs, remember the support at $65,500. This level has held up as a reliable safety net, where buyers seem ready to jump back in when the price wavers. As long as Bitcoin stays above $65,500, the path to testing higher levels remains intact. A dip below, though, could signal a deeper retracement and shake out the less committed bulls.Potential slide if support breaksWhat if $65,500 doesn’t hold? In that case, brace yourself for a potential pullback toward lower supports—we could be talking about the $60,000 range and later even to $53,000. A break at this $65,500 level would put pressure on Bitcoin and may set off a round of profit-taking and panic selling. It’s crucial to watch how the price behaves at this junction. But for now, I am still on bullish on BTC and looking forward to another retest of the ATH zone - just slightly below or just slightly above $73,794.Always trade bitcoin at your own risk only. Return to ForexLive.com for additional, original perspectives (https://www.forexlive.com/)..
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
The technical levels in play for the trading week for the major currency pairs.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-technical-levels-in-play-for-the-trading-week-for-the-major-currency-pairs-20241102/
EURUSD: GBPUSD:USDJPY:USDCHF:AUDUSD:NZDUSD:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD consolidation sets up for a break next week.What levels are key for traders and why
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-consolidation-sets-up-for-a-break-next-weekwhat-levels-are-key-for-traders-and-why-20241101/
The USDCAD has been trending higher, though its momentum has started to slow.One key factor has been resistance at this year’s high, set back in August at 1.39458. This week, high prices have approached but stopped just short of that level, creating a ceiling.Of course, ceilings can be broken. If that happens, traders will likely eye the 2022 highs at 1.3977. A move above that mark would open the door to more upside, pushing the USDCAD to its highest level in over four years (since May 2020).In trending markets, counter-trend traders have to prove they can take back control. Put simply, if sellers can't regain control, they’re not winning. How do they regain control? By moving the price below key technical levels.First, I’m watching the 100-hour moving average (MA) at 1.3911, which has been trending higher. We’ve seen the USDCAD dip below this MA several times in the past dozen trading days, including yesterday and today, but these breaks haven’t gained traction. Currently, the price is back above the 100-hour MA at 1.3923 (with the 100-hour MA itself at 1.3911).Next up would be the rising 200-hour MA, currently at 1.3879. It’s worth noting that the USDCAD hasn’t traded below this level since October 2, nearly a month—quite a stretch.So as we head into next week, sellers will only start to win if they can push and hold the price below both the 100-hour MA and then the 200-hour MA.Without that, sellers are not winning. Buyers are winningTechnical Analysis of USDCADTrend and Momentum:USDCAD trending higher, but momentum slowing.Key resistance at 2024 high (1.39458) reached in August.Resistance Levels:2024 high: 1.394582022 high: 1.3977 (above 2024 high)Support Levels:100-hour Moving Average (MA): 1.3911200-hour MA (rising): 1.3879Key Levels to Watch:Break above 1.39458 resistance opens door for more upside momentum.Failure to break above 1.39458 keeps ceiling intact.Sellers need to move below 100-hour MA (1.3911) and 200-hour MA (1.3879) to regain control.Current Market Status:Price currently above 100-hour MA (1.3923).Sellers have failed to sustain momentum below 100-hour MA.Next Week's Outlook:Sellers must break below both 100-hour MA and 200-hour MA to gain control.Failure to do so indicates buyers remain in control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart FX trading for Nov 1 after the US jobs report. A look at EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-fx-trading-for-nov-1-after-the-us-jobs-report-a-look-at-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-20241101/
The US jobs report has come and gone, with hurricanes and strikes influencing the number. You can find out the details HERE (https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-october-non-farm-payrolls-12k-vs-113k-expected-20241101/).What has happened technically.In the video above, I outline the key technical levels in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD and explain why. THe USD is lower but will that trend continue? You need to know. You can find out in the above video.EURUSD: EURUSD moved higher, breaking above the 200-day moving average (MA) and swing area near 1.0870, which now serves as support. Staying above this level signals a more bullish outlook. Key resistance levels are the weekly high at 1.0888 and the 50% retracement of the range since April at 1.09069. The 200-day MA remains critical for sustained upside momentum.USDJPY: USDJPY tested the swing area between 151.85 and 151.93. A move below this range would bring the 200-day MA at 151.53, the 50% retracement at 150.75, and the 100-day MA at 150.405 into play. For sellers to regain medium- and long-term control, these levels need to be broken and sustained below.GBPUSD: GBPUSD moved above the key swing area at 1.2938, with continued support above this level essential for short-term bullish control. The next target is the 100-day MA at 1.29784, which needs to be broken and held to strengthen the bullish bias. Above that, the 1.3000 level serves as both a psychological resistance and a confluence zone with the 38.2% retracement since April and the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart, making it a key level to watch today and going forward.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF continues to consolidate near highs. 200 hour MA in play now at 0.8651
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-continues-to-consolidate-near-highs-200-hour-ma-in-play-now-at-08651-20241025/
The USDCHF continues to consolidate near highs in up and down trading:Key resistance:There is he resistance at the 100 day moving average at 0.86904. The high price for the week on Wednesday reached 0.86854. Getting above those levels is more bullish.Key support: Close support now comes in at the rising 200-hour moving average at 0.86514Break below the 200 hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high comes in at 0.86318. That was also the low price from earlier this weekTargets on breaks:A break above the 100 day moving average at 0.86904 what next target the 50% midpoint of the move down from the July high at 0.87116.A break below the 38.2% retracement at 0.86318 would target a swing area between 0.86078 and 0.8619. The rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart is also in that area and 0.86116 currently.For the trading week, the USDCHF trading ranges only 53 pips. which is near the lowest trading range going back to 2002 at least.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
with the falling 100 day moving average at 0.86905 Marquis targets on the topside. The price has not traded above the 100 day moving average since July 10. Move below that level and the 50% midpoint of the move down from the July high comes in at 0.87116.On the downside, the low price yesterday reached 0.8649. Move below that any broken 38.2% retracement of the same move lower comes in at 0.86318. On Monday, that retracement level held support, keeping the buyers in control at least in the short term. Nevertheless the upside momentum is limited. Getting above the 100 day moving average would give the buyers more confidence. Stay below keeps the sellers in play.USDCAD: The USDCAD range is the smallest of the major players versus the US dollar at only 12 pips (vs one month average up 53 pips). That is not a lot. The price remains near the highest levels going back to early August. The price also trades mostly above a swing area from the July/August up-and-down price action between 1.3833 and 1.3847. A move below 1.38331 would have traders looking down toward the lows from Tuesday and Thursday which bottomed at 1.38131. Move below that level traders look toward 1.3786 – 1.37919. On the topside, there is resistance at 1.3864 and then 1.3888 before the door opens for a run toward the August high at 1.39458.The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50 basis points this week. That sent the pair to a spike high on Wednesday at 1.3864. Yesterday, the price retested that high (and surpassed it briefly) before rotating lower activity swing area. So although there has been consolidation/corrective activity this week despite the 50 basis point cut, the USDCAD buyers are still being more control. AUDUSD: The AUDUSD for the second day in a row is trading above and below its 200-day moving average at 0.6628. Having said that, there is a swing area down to 0.66189 which did a good job of holding support at the low today. Buyers and sellers are battling it out at this key technical area. On the topside, the 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low comes in at 0.6645. Yesterday the price moved back below that level after retracing toward a modest resistance level at 0.66578. If the buyers start to take more control they need to get and stay above the 50% midpoint level. Conversely, on the downside moving and staying below 0.66189 would increase the bearish bias and have traders looking down toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.6575. NZDUSD:The NZDUSD to a new low today but remains above a swing area target between 0.5970 and 0.59836 the price has bounced higher and currently trades right around the natural support/resistance at 0.6000. The price has traded above and below that level since Wednesday. The corrective move higher yesterday came up to a low of a swing area target at 0.6031 – 0.60387. On further momentum, getting above that level and the broken 61.8% retracement at 0.60509 would be the next targets.Conversely, a break lower would need to get below the 0.5970 – 0.59836 swing area to have traders looking down toward the lows from August starting at 0.5912 and extending down to 0.58488.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
