Gold Technical Analysis – Don’t expect the same uptrend from now on
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-dont-expect-the-same-uptrend-from-now-on-20241127/
Fundamental
OverviewGold had a bad start of the
week after the nomination of Scott Bessent for Treasury secretary over the weekend.
Bessent is seen as a fiscal hawk, and the market views him as a great pick for
the job. One of the main reasons why
the magnitude of the correlation between gold and real yields weakened in the
past couple of years was due to the US fiscal profligacy. This has led to much
stronger rallies in gold when real yields fell and more contained selloffs when
real yields rose. In the bigger picture, gold
remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the
Fed’s easing cycle, but the short-term corrections will be triggered by a
repricing in rate cuts expectations. Overall, we might not see
the same strong uptrend in gold going forward as we got used to in the past
couple of years. Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold dropped all the way back to the key support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
zone around the 2600 level where we have also the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/).
The price bounced there as the buyers stepped in to position for a rally into a
new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next major trendline around
the 2400 level. Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price is breaking above the minor resistance around the 2643
level. That should give the buyers more conviction to target new highs, so we
can expect the bullish momentum to gradually increase. The sellers, on the
other hand, will look for a failed break to pile in and target a break below
the 2600 support. Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum
on this timeframe. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it, while the
sellers will look for a break below it to target new lows. The red lines define
the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we get the US PCE report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD & USDCAD
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-trading-day-with-a-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-gbpusd-usdcad-20241126/
The USD moved higher vs the EUR, JPY, GBP and the CAD after Pres. elect Trump said he would impose tariffs on 25% vs Canada and Mexico goods, and a 10% blanket tariff on all China goods. The dollars gains on the comments were short lived vs the EUR, GBP and JPY, but maintained (mostly) vs the CAD. Nevertheless, there is also up and down volatility that has set some key technical barometers for each pair. IN this video, I take a look at the technical level in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and the USDCAD. What are the levels in play and more importantly, I explain why they are important. Be aware. Be prepared. Below are the charts of the currency pairs analyzed. EURUSD:USDJPY:GBPUSD:USDCAD:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The USD is mostly lower. Yields are higher. What are the charts telling traders in majors
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-usd-is-mostly-lower-yields-are-higher-what-are-the-charts-telling-traders-in-majors-20241126/
The USD is mostly lower in up and back-down trading today. The US yields are mixed and so are the major US stock indices. Pres Elect Trump said that a blanket 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico would be one of his first executive orders, and would charge China 10% on all goods that led to the initial spike in the USD in the day today before the trends reversed to the downside. . IN Europe, ECB's Rehn, expressing a hawkish stance, highlights that salary and services inflation remain persistent, with the risk of inflation moderating more slowly than anticipated. He expects the Eurozone economy to grow slowly and recover gradually. Rehn suggests continuing to cut rates if upcoming data and forecasts align with the current inflation and growth outlook. Furthermore, his assessment indicates that Europe is likely transitioning toward neutral rates by early spring.ECBs Villeroy said that Trump policies should be limited to inflation but interest rates could be impacted, while deGuindos said that focus is shifting to slower growth. Here is a summary of today's economic and event calendar. :8:05 AM (CAD): Gov Council Member Mendes speaks9:00 AM (USD):S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y: Forecast at 4.7% (previous 5.2%).HPI m/m: Forecast at 0.3% (previous 0.3%).10:00 AM (USD):CB Consumer Confidence: Forecast at 111.8 (previous 108.7).New Home Sales: Forecast at 725K (previous 738K).Richmond Manufacturing Index: Forecast at -10 (previous -14).1:00 PM (USD)US 5 Year note auction2:00 PM (USD): FOMC Meeting Minutes (high impact).Looking at the US debt market, yields are mixed in a early US trading with a steeper yield curve:2-year yield 4.239%, -1.2 basis points5 year yield 4.168%, -0.5 basis points10 year yield 4.275%, +1.2 basis points30 year yield 4.466%, +2.0 basis pointsThe US stock futures are implying a mixed opening in the major indices.The Dow closed at a record yesterday. The Russell 2000 close less than a point from a record closing level although yesterday a new all time intraday high was reached at 2466.48. Dow industrial average -46.57 pointsS&P index +15.38 pointsNasdaq +65.61 pointsin other markets:Crude oil is trading at $69.25gold is up $14.63 or 0.56% at $2639 after tumbling yesterday by 3.35%Bitcoin fell sharply yesterday and continued the decline today. It is currently down around $700 at $92,338. Technically speaking:EURUSD: The EURUSD moved lower on the back of the tariff comments from Pres. elect Trump at the start of the new trading day. The price moved to a low of 1.0424 which filled most of the gap from the Friday close at 1.0414, but still short. The price rotated back higher and extended back above the 100 hour MA and topside trend line. IN the current hourly bar the price moved above the 200 hour MA (green line) at 1.05256. The current price is at 1.0537. Staying above the 200 hour MA would be the best case technical scenario for buyers looking for more upside. A more conservative risk would be the 100 hour MA. ON the topside, the 38.2% of the move down from the November high comes in at 1.05628 and represents the next upside target for buyers. Getting and staying above the 38.2% is the minimum retracement level that is needed to prove the buyers mean business. Absent that, and the rebound is just a plain-vanilla variety after a trend move lower. USDJPY: The USDJPYs push higher initially with the Trump comments were reverses but not with it's share of ups and downs intraday today (see hourly chart below). What sticks out technically, is that yesterday the high price of the day stalled near the 100 hour MA (blue line) keeping the sellers in control. The price action traded above and below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and a swing area going back in time at 153.88 (see green
Is Intel Stock a Buy or Sell?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/is-intel-stock-a-buy-or-sell-20241126/
Is Intel Stock a Buy or Sell? Here's My Strategic Orientation for 2024 🎯Hi, Itai Levitan here! 👋 If you’re looking at Intel stock (INTC) and wondering whether it’s time to buy the dip or sell the rally, here’s a flexible framework to consider. The market has its own rhythm, so this is an orientation you can adapt as you see fit. Let’s dive in! Dip Buying: A Strategy to Watch for Potential Opportunities 🛒When the price dips into areas I consider attractive, it may offer a great opportunity to scale into a position. Here’s one possible approach:💡 Buy Zones:Level 1: 50 shares @ $18.95 (Cost: $948; 14.29% of budget)Level 2: 100 shares @ $18.29 (Cost: $1,829; 28.57% of budget)Level 3: 200 shares @ $17.57 (Cost: $3,514; 57.14% of budget)Result? Weighted average entry price of $17.97.🎯 Plan of Action:Stop Loss: $17.43 (-3% below entry).Take Profit: $21.21 (+18% above entry).Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 6:1 — a solid balance. 💪✨ Flexibility Built In:If only two out of three orders are filled and price starts reversing up with an unrealized profit, you could take partial profits early instead of waiting for the full target.You don’t have to stick rigidly to the plan — adaptability is key!Example Math:Full Position: 350 shares.Total Entry Cost: $6,291.If Take Profit Hits: Price reaches $21.21, resulting in a gain of $3.24 per share and a total hypothetical profit of $1,321. 🤑If Stop Loss is Hit: Price drops to $17.43, resulting in a loss of $0.54 per share and a total hypothetical loss of $189.Short Selling: An Opportunity to Watch for Higher Prices 🕵️♂️If Intel’s price rises into key resistance zones, it might create shorting opportunities. Here’s a framework for scaling into a short position:💡 Sell Zones:Level 1: 50 shares @ $29.08 (Cost: $1,454; 14.29% of budget)Level 2: 100 shares @ $30.16 (Cost: $3,016; 28.57% of budget)Level 3: 200 shares @ $31.08 (Cost: $6,216; 57.14% of budget)Result? Weighted average entry price of $30.53.🎯 Plan of Action:Stop Loss: $31.45 (+3% above entry).Take Profit: $25.04 (-18% below entry).Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Another 6:1.✨ Flexibility Built In:Just as an exampe... Say price reaches the sell zone but fails to hit all three levels, and then starts declining, you could trail your stop loss — for example, moving it to breakeven. Meaning, you can decide to take partial profit along the way and/or move your stops (don't do that too early cause you can get stoppd out).Waiting a few months for price to reach these zones? That’s okay too. Be patient and let the market come to you. Remember, we are looking here at prices that are quite far fom the current price, and we have a reason to believe others wll act in the zones identified, so patience is a must. It goes without saying that no one is promising that price will get to these zones, not to mention reverse there in your favor. There are mno promises here, only opinions of attractive reversal zone potential, with a detailed plan including a solid stop.Example Math:Full Position: 350 shares.Total Entry Cost: $10,686.If Take Profit Hits: Price drops to $25.04, resulting in a gain of $5.50 per share and a total hypothetical profit of $1,923. 🤑If Stop Loss is Hit: Price rises to $31.45, resulting in a loss of $0.92 per share and a total hypothetical loss of $321.Why This Orientation Works 🧠Here’s why this plan makes sense:Key Levels: Based on historical VWAPs, POCs, and value areas, where big players are likely to step in.Scaling in and out: Spreading your orders across levels gives you a smoother entry or exit.Adaptability: This isn’t a rigid plan — you can:Adjust the position size.Take profits early if the market behaves differently.Trail your stop to lock in gains as price moves in your favor.Key Takeaway ✨This is an orientation, not a rigid roadmap. Markets are dynamic, and so should be your approach. Whether you’re looking to buy the dip or sell the
USDCHF Technical Analysis - Rangebound price action around the highs
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-technical-analysis-rangebound-price-action-around-the-highs-20241126/
Fundamental
OverviewThe US Dollar remains the
strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple
of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining
largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025. During the Asian session,
we saw the greenback getting a bid as Trump said that he will charge Mexico and
Canada a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US and will charge China an
additional 10% tariff.On the CHF side, the market
continues to price a 72% chance of a 25 bps cut in December and a total of 70
bps of easing by the end of 2025. Last week, SNB’s
President Schlegel (https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/swiss-national-bank-chief-stresses-tackling-inflation-main-goal-2024-11-22/) said that the central bank will use negative rates if
necessary. The Swiss Franc sold off initially but eventually recouped all the
losses. USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF continues to display a rangebound price action around the
recent highs. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better
risk to reward setup around the major upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) to position for a rally into the 0.9050
level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
below the trendline to start targeting new lows.USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see the upward spike on SNB’s Schlegel dovish comments which got faded as the
new week began. We have a nice support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
around the 0.88 handle where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined
risk below it to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other
hand, will look for a break lower to target a break below the major trendline. USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline acting as support. The buyers will
likely lean on it to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers
will look for a break lower to target a drop into the 0.88 support. The red
lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US Consumer Confidence report and the FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Tomorrow, we get the US PCE report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Not to jinx it, but Russell 2000 on pace for a record close today
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/not-to-jinx-it-but-russell-2000-on-pace-for-a-record-close-today-20241125/
Not to jinx the market 16 minutes to the close but the Russell 2000 is on pace for a record close. Currently the price is at 2451.64 up 45.97 points or 1.91%. The all-time high close going back to November 5, 2021 is at 2442.74. So there's a 9-point cushion between now and the 4 PM closing level. Today may be the day. PS the all-time high intraday price was breached today at 2458.85. The current price is just below that level in 2451.64, but the intraday high price reached 2466.48
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
NZDUSD up and down today but stays below 100/200 hour MAs
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-up-and-down-today-but-stays-below-100200-hour-mas-20241125/
The NZD/USD pair opened with a gap higher but has spent the session oscillating within a narrow range. On the downside, support has held firm near swing levels established on November 14 and 18, as well as during two tests today, between 0.5835 and 0.5839.On the upside, the 100-hour moving average (MA), currently at 0.5864, has capped the rally. Just above it, the 200-hour MA at 0.5868 reinforces this resistance zone. Both moving averages are trending lower, signaling a bearish tilt.Key Levels to WatchSupport: A break below 0.5835 would indicate bearish momentum, opening the door for further downside exploration.Resistance: A move above the 100-hour and 200-hour MAs, now near 0.5868 and edging lower, would shift the bias to the upside.Market SentimentWith the price currently at 0.5851, traders are watching for a breakout in either direction. The current tilt favors sellers, as long as the pair trades below the moving averages. Buyers, however, could regain control if the resistance levels are breached.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
GBPUSD holds swing area resistance and 100 hour MA at session highs. What next?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gbpusd-holds-swing-area-resistance-and-100-hour-ma-at-session-highs-what-next-20241125/
The GBP/USD pair moved higher from last week’s closing level near 1.2530 but encountered strong resistance around a key swing area between 1.2596 and 1.2614. After testing this zone, buyers gave way to sellers.In the early European session, the price decline paused just ahead of the 1.2530 level, prompting another attempt to the upside. However, sellers once again emerged near the top of the swing area. This level was further reinforced by the falling 100-hour moving average (MA), adding to its significance. Together, the swing area high and the 100-hour MA at 1.2614 have become critical resistance levels, acting as a key barometer for both buyers and sellers.Outlook for SellersAs long as the price remains below 1.2614, sellers retain control. A continued downside move could target:Friday’s closing level: 1.2530Last week’s low: 1.2486A break below these levels would open the door for further downside probing.Outlook for BuyersFor buyers to regain momentum, they must push the price above 1.2614 and the falling 100-hour MA. A sustained break above these levels would likely shift the bias to the upside, at least in the short term, with the falling 200-hour MA at 1.26407 as another target to get to and through.. Until then, buyers remain on the back foot, and the sellers are firmly in control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Technical Analysis - The Treasury Secretary pick weighs on the market
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-the-treasury-secretary-pick-weighs-on-the-market-20241125/
Fundamental
OverviewGold saw a quick drop today
during the Asian session with the news of Scott Bessent nomination for Treasury
secretary as the most likely culprit. Bessent is a fiscal hawk (https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-down-as-trump-picks-scott-bessent-for-role-of-treasury-secretary-20241125/), and the market
views him as a great pick for the job. In fact, one of the main
reasons why the magnitude of the correlation between gold and real yields
weakened in the past couple of years was due to the US fiscal profligacy. This
has led to much stronger rallies in gold when real yields fell and more
contained selloffs when real yields rose. In the bigger picture, gold
remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the
Fed’s easing cycle, but the short-term corrections will be triggered by a
repricing in rate cuts expectations. Overall, we might not see
the same strong uptrend in gold going forward as we got used to in the past
couple of years. Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold managed to rally into the 2720 level almost erasing completely
the Trump-led selloff. Today, we saw a quick drop during the Asian session on positive
US fiscal outlook. There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe, so
we need to zoom in to see some more details. Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a nice support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 2643 level where we can also
find the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/) level for confluence (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/).
This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the
support to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish
bets into new lows.Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the quick drop overnight. The
price is now consolidating around the lower bound of the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/), so there might not be much left on
the downside for today. Upcoming
CatalystsTomorrow (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US Consumer Confidence report and the FOMC Meeting Minutes.
On Wednesday, we get the US PCE report and the latest US Jobless Claims
figures. See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
European shares close higher despite weak data today
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/european-shares-close-higher-despite-weak-data-today-20241122/
The major European indices are closing the day higher despite what was weak flash European PMI data for both manufacturing and service.The final numbers are showing: German DAX +0.89%France's CAC +0.58%UK's FTSE 100 +1.38%Spain's Ibex +0.39%Italy's FTSE MIB +0.60%For the trading week indices are mixed with France and Italy moving lower and Germany, UK, and Spain moving higher.German Dax +0.58%France's CAC -0.20%UK's FTSE 100 +2.46%Spain's Ibex +0.1 don't worry about them serving soaring new 8%Italy's FTSE MIB -2.04%Looking at the European yields, the benchmark 10 year yields moved lower on the weaker data: Germany 2.245%, -8.2 basis pointsFrance 3.046%, -6.7 basis pointsUK 4.392%, -4.0 basis pointsSpain 2.977%, -7.5 basis pointsItaly 3.508%, -5.1 basis pointsfor the trading week 10 year yields were lower Germany, -9.5 basis pointsFrance -2.7 basis pointsUK -6.8 basis pointsSpain -8.0 basis pointsItaly -3.9 basis pointsAs London/European traders head for the exits for the week, US stocks are higher: Dow industrial average +0.76%S&P index +0.26%NASDAQ index +0.05%Russell 2000+1.57% In the US debt market, yields are mixed with the shorter end higher in the longer and lower:2-year 4.362%, +1.3 basis points5-year 4.289%, -1.4 basis points10 year 4.402%, -3.0 basis points30 year 4.584%, -3.6 basis pointsA snapshot of other markets shows:Crude oil is $0.86 or +1.24% at $70.97Gold is up $36.78 or 1.3% at $2706.15. The price is moving closer to its all-time high closing level of $2787.42, after correcting toward the 100 day moving average and find support buyers back on November 14.Bitcoin is trading at $99,127. The high price today reached $99,500 earlier today. Come on Bitcoin 100K.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY stalls the fall today and yesterday at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-stalls-the-fall-today-and-yesterday-at-the-100-bar-ma-on-the-4-hour-chart-20241122/
The USD/JPY pair moved lower in the early Asian session but found support once again near the rising 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, currently at 153.944. This level, which also held yesterday and prompted a bounce, remains a key technical support. Staying above this moving average maintains a bullish bias, while a break below shifts the focus to the 61.8% retracement level at 153.397. Further downside targets include the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 152.314 and the 200-day moving average at 151.941, with each level increasing the bearish bias if broken.On the upside, a swing area near 155.21 serves as the next key resistance. A move above this level would strengthen the bullish case, opening the door to further targets such as the weekly high at 155.88, last week’s high at 156.72, and the 157.921 high from July 19. These levels mark progressive resistance points in a bullish scenario. In summary, the pair's near-term direction hinges on the 100-bar moving average, with a simple rule: staying above supports bullish momentum, while moving below shifts the focus to bearish targets.-----------------------------------------------USDJPY Technical AnalysisThe USDJPY currency pair began the Asian session with a decline, only to find support near its rising 100-bar moving average on the four-hour chart. This moving average is currently at 153.944.Key Support and Resistance Levels:Support: 100-bar moving average on the four-hour chart at 153.944Resistance: Swing area high at 155.21Trading Strategy:Stay above 153.944 for a more bullish outlookMove below 153.944 for a more bearish outlookUpside Targets:High of the week at 155.88High from last week at 156.72High price since July 19 at 157.921Downside Targets:Broken 61.8% level at 153.397200-bar moving average on the four-hour chart at 152.314200-day moving average at 151.941A move below each of these levels would increase the bearish bias.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
reaching 1.0332. Since then the price has bounced higher to 1.04368. The 38.2% of the move down from the high this week comes in at 1.04372. Staying below that retracement makes the correction a plain-vanilla variety. It would take a move above to give the buyers a glimpse of victory. Absent that, and they are losing. THe 50% of the range since 2022 (not shown) at 1.0405 is where the US session is beginning. Move below with momentum could give the sellers more confidence to push back toward the lows. Stay above, and a battle between 38.2% on hourly and 50% on the daily is likely. USDJPY: The USDJP is watching the show in Europe today. Looking at the hourly chart below, the low for the day in the Asian session stalled at the 100 bar MA on 4-hour chart (blue line currently at 153.933. The subsequent move higher saw the price get above the 100-hour MA at 154.719, but find willing sellers at the 200 hour MA at 154.946. The price at 154.53 is in the middle of the support and resistance targets. GBPUSD: The GBPUSD fell below the 50% on the daily chart below at 1.26147 yesterday, continuing that momentum lower in trading today. the price fell on the data to and through a trend line on the daily at 1.2497. The low reached 1.2487 before bouncing back higher. The current price is at 1.2512. Today, look for more momentum below the support near the natural support at 1.2500 and the trend line at 1.2497. The first break failed. Will a second break? Looking at the 4-hour chart of GBPUSD below, it will take a move back above 1.2596 to 1.26137 to hur the bearish bias in the pair. Sellers in firm control in the GBPUSD below that old floor area (now a ceiling). WIll the USD PMI be yucky too today and reverse the USD higher move seen so far today?
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – The Euro falls to the lowest level since 2022
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-the-euro-falls-to-the-lowest-level-since-2022-20241122/
Fundamental
OverviewOverall, we’ve seen a
rangebound price action in the US Dollar this week as the market’s pricing
remained largely unchanged due to the lack of catalysts at three rate cuts by
the end of 2025.This morning, we saw some
strong bids in the greenback entirely due to the weak Eurozone
PMIs (https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-november-flash-services-pmi-492-vs-516-expected-20241122/) as the flows in the pair spilled over to other markets. On the EUR side, the
probabilities for a 50 bps cut in December rose to 63% from 26% before the PMIs.
By the end of 2025, the market sees a total of 142 bps of easing. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD broke through the key support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) zone around the 1.05 handle yesterday and
extended the drop into the 1.0335 level this morning on weak Eurozone PMIs. From a risk management
perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the previous
support
now turned resistance (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-polarity-20220408/). The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price rising back above the 1.05 handle to invalidate the bearish setup and
position for a rally into the major trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/).EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have another downward trendline now defining the current bearish
momentum. If we were to get a pullback, the sellers will likely lean on it to
position for a drop into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break
higher to pile in for a rally into the major trendline. EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 1.06 handle. This is where
the sellers keep on stepping in to target the break below the 1.05 handle. The
buyers, on the other hand, will need the price to break higher to start
targeting new highs. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US PMIs.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – We continue to range around key levels
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-we-continue-to-range-around-key-levels-20241122/
Fundamental
OverviewOverall, we’ve seen a
rangebound price action in the US Dollar this week as the market awaits new
catalysts to push into either direction. The market’s pricing remains mostly unchanged
at three rate cuts by the end of 2025 for the Fed.Yesterday, we saw some strong
bids in the greenback late in the day although there wasn’t any catalyst for
the move. Those moves are getting erased this morning and we’ll see if that’s
going to continue.On the JPY side, the Japanese
CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-october-headline-cpi-23-expected-22-prior-25-20241121/) today came mostly in line with expectations with inflation being just a
bit above the BoJ’s 2% target. The market is pricing a 58% chance of a rate
hike in December and a total of 48 bps of tightening by the end of 2025. USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY has been mostly rangebound around the 155.00 handle this week.
From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to
reward setup around the 152.00 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) to position for a rally into the 160.00 handle
next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below
the support to start targeting new lows.USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/)
where the price got rejected from several times in the past weeks. The buyers
will likely continue to lean on it to position for new highs, while the sellers
will look for a break lower to position for the break below the key support. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price yesterday broke above a minor downward trendline that was
defining the pullback into the major trendline. This might be a signal for new
highs ahead but given the rangebound price action, it could also be a false
signal. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US PMIs.See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
today, that 100-hour MA has stalled the price rises (there were small breaks, but momentum was absent). The price moved to a low of 1.2622 which was below the low from yesterday at at 1.2630, but short of the lows from Tuesday and Monday near 1.2613. For today, close resistance will be eyed at the 100-hour moving average at 1.26532. On the downside getting below 1.2613 and then the low price from last week at 1.2596, would take the price To the lowest level since May. USDCHF: The USDCHF held resistance at the 100-hour moving average yesterday (blue line on the chart below), and held support against its 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart below).Today in the early Asian hours, the price broke below the 200-hour moving average and continued down toward the next target at the 200-day moving average at 0.88199. Support buyers leaned against that moving average and the price bounced back higher finding resistance against its 200 hour moving average which is now near the converged 100-hour moving year at 0.8845.The price has moved back lower.The 200-day MA is key support at 0.88199. The 100 and 200-hour MAs is key resistance at 0.8845 area. Move below or above those levels should see more momentum in the direction of the break.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
RBNZ rate decision in the new day and the NZDUSD is breaking to a new low. What next?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/rbnz-rate-decision-in-the-new-day-and-the-nzdusd-is-breaking-to-a-new-low-what-next-20241126/
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to announce its interest rate decision in the upcoming trading session, with expectations leaning toward a 50 basis point rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate from 4.75% to 4.25%. The NZD/USD pair has been in a steady downtrend since late September, driven by expectations of further rate cuts in New Zealand and a robust U.S. economic outlook. This sell-off has pushed the pair below a key swing area that has defined much of its trading range since early 2023.Historically, the NZD/USD has fluctuated between 0.5848 and 0.6400, with brief breaks outside this range, notably in October 2023. Starting in November 2023, the 0.5848–0.5859 range became a critical support zone, which held firm through several tests in April, July, and August 2024. Although the pair dipped below this zone earlier in November, the price rebounded quickly, signaling hesitation among sellers. However, today’s trading has seen increased downside momentum, with the pair now trading at 0.5822, firmly below this key support. Sellers are clearly in control heading into the rate decision.What Could Reverse the Bearish Bias?For a bullish turnaround, a "buy the news" reaction would likely be required, given the high market consensus for a 50 basis point cut. This could occur if the price tests the 2023 low at 0.5772, finds strong buyer support, and then rallies back above the 0.5848–0.5859 swing area. Breaking above 0.5859 would be a critical first step for buyers, with the following key resistance levels:0.5889: The 38.2% retracement of the November decline.0.5911: The 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart.0.5917: The 50% midpoint of the November range, which is likely to act as a stalling point.Downside RisksIf today’s low or the 2023 low at 0.5772 is breached, sellers could target the next major support at 0.5741, the swing low from early November 2022. A break below this level would likely trigger further downside momentum, opening the door to deeper losses.Heading into the RBNZ decision, sellers hold the upper hand. However, key levels on both the upside (0.5848–0.5859) and downside (0.5772 and 0.5741) will determine the next directional move.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
circles). The price over the last few hours have moved away from those levels and to new lows for the day and new week. In the process, the price is now also cracking below a swing area between 153.26 to 153.46 (see red circles). Sellers are making a technical play. For sellers looking for more downside, staying below the swing area (up to 153.46 is the best case scenario but more conservative sellers may look to 153. 88 as the barometer for buyers and sellers. Buyers, conversely, would be encouraged by a move back above 153.46 with the 153.88 as the "more confidence defining" level to get and stay above goinf forward. For now, sellers are in control. GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved lower (higher USD) in the early hours in sympathy to the Trump tariff comments, but after stalling the fall ahead of 1.5300 (the low reached 1.5306 just above of that level). The snapback has now moved back above the 100-hour MA at 1.25899 and has moved to the high of a swing area between 1.2596 to 1.26137. The 200-hour MA at 1.26248 remains a key target to get to and through to increase the bullish bias. The last time the price moved above the 200 hour MA was back on November 8th. Move above that, and the traders would target 1.2660 near the swing high ceiling from last Thursday. Above that and the 38.2% would be eyed near the natural resistance at 1.2700 area. The buyers are trying to make a play above the 100 hour MA. Can they keep the momentum going with a break above the 200-hour MA. USDCHF For the USDCHF, the price traded above and below the 100 and 200 hour MAs but in the European session fell and has been able to extend lower - moving away from those MA barometers. The 100 hour MA comes in at 0.8871 and the 200 hour MA comes in at 0.8865 and are now resistance for sellers. Staying below keeps the seller in play. On the downside, there is a swing area between 0.8816 and 0.88262. Included within that area is the 38.2% retracement of the November trading range at 0.88262. Below that is the 200 day moving average at 0.88211. If that key area can be broken, the 100 bar moving average only four hour chart comes in at 0.880580.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
rally:Be disciplined with your entries and exits.Keep your reward-to-risk ratio in mind.Stay flexible and ready to adjust based on how the market unfolds. Always have a stop for your swing trades or even buy and holds.This is only an opinion. Do your work research on INTC stock and visit ForexLive.com (https://www.forexlive.com/) for additional views.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD Technical Analysis - The CAD sells off on Trump's tariffs threat
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-technical-analysis-the-cad-sells-off-on-trumps-tariffs-threat-20241126/
Fundamental
OverviewThe US Dollar remains the
strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple
of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining
largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025. During the Asian session,
we saw the greenback getting a bid as Trump said that he will charge Mexico and
Canada a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US and will charge China an
additional 10% tariff.On the CAD side, we had the
Canadian CPI (https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-cpi-inflation-for-october-04-versus-03-mom-20241119/) last week and the data came in
stronger than expected. This decreased the chances of a 50 bps cut in December
with the market now seeing an 80% chance of a 25 bps cut and a total of 87 bps
of easing by the end of 2025 compared to 98 bps before the CPI report. USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD spiked into the 1.4177 level overnight on the tariffs news. The
pair continues to trade above the 2-year highs with the buyers maintaining
control. The sellers will need to see the price falling back below the 1.3950
level to switch the bias to bearish and start targeting new lows.USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/)
around the 1.41 handle. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in to
position for further upside. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a
break lower to target a drop back into the 1.40 handle. USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s
nothing more we can add as we are now trading right at the support zone where
the buyers will look for a bounce, while the sellers will target a break. The
red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US Consumer Confidence report and the FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Tomorrow, we get the US PCE report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On
Friday, we conclude with the Canadian GDP.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – The choppy price action continues
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-technical-analysis-the-choppy-price-action-continues-20241126/
Fundamental
OverviewThe US Dollar remains the
strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple
of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining
largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025. We saw some interesting
moves in other major pairs but that was solely due to the weakness of the other
currencies. During the Asian session, we saw the greenback getting a bid as Trump
said that he will charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on all products
coming into the US and will charge China an additional 10% tariff.On the JPY side, the market
is pricing a 62% chance of a rate hike in December and a total of 49 bps of
tightening by the end of 2025. On Friday, we get the Tokyo CPI data and an
upside surprise could make the BoJ December meeting live.USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY has been mostly rangebound around the 155.00 handle. From a
risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup
around the 152.00 support (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/) to position for a rally into the 160.00 handle
next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below
the support to start targeting new lows.USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke below the key upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) that was defining the bullish
momentum on this timeframe. We can expect the sellers to pile in around these
levels to position for a drop into the 152.00 support. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price rising back above the trendline to invalidate the
bearish setup and start targeting a new high.USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this
timeframe. The sellers will likely keep on leaning on the trendline to position
for further downside, while the buyers will look for a break higher to position
for a rally into a new high. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today. Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we have the US Consumer Confidence report and the FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Tomorrow, we get the US PCE report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On
Friday, we conclude the week with the Tokyo CPI.See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD retraced earlier declines but finds willing sellers near its 200 hour MA.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdcad-retraced-earlier-declines-but-finds-willing-sellers-near-its-200-hour-ma-20241125/
The USD/CAD gapped lower over the weekend following news that Scott Bessent would be named Treasury Secretary under Trump. However, the initial decline lacked follow-through, and the pair resumed its upward momentum.Key Levels TestedThe price rebounded above the August 2024 high at 1.39458 and the 2022 high at 1.39785, signaling bullish intent.Momentum carried the pair to and briefly above the 200-hour moving average (MA) at 1.4002 and the psychological 1.4000 level, but these gains were unsustainable, prompting a pullback.Current PositionThe pair has now retreated to a zone near the 100-hour MA at 1.3969 and the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.39573. This places the price back within the range defined by the 2022 high (1.39785) and the August 2024 high (1.39458).Buyer and Seller Stand-OffSellers: Tested levels below the August 2024 high at 1.39458 but failed to maintain control.Buyers: Attempted to sustain momentum above the 2022 high at 1.39785, but gains were limited.Both sides have made their moves, but neither has gained a decisive edge. Traders should now watch for a break outside the 1.39458–1.39785 range. A sustained move in either direction could signal the next momentum-driven shift.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Crude oil is trading sharply lower and down close to $2 on the day
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/crude-oil-is-trading-sharply-lower-and-down-close-to-2-on-the-day-20241125/
Crude oil prices have dropped sharply as optimism grows for a potential peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Currently, prices are down approximately $2, trading near $69.13. The intraday low reached $69.01, bringing the price close to the 200-hour moving average (MA) (depicted as the green line on the chart).This MA level is acting as a critical support zone for now. A break below the 200-hour MA would signal a more bearish technical outlook, but so far, buyers have managed to defend this key level.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Gold tumbles on lower geopolitical risk. Where is the risk now? What are the targets?
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/gold-tumbles-on-lower-geopolitical-risk-where-is-the-risk-now-what-are-the-targets-20241125/
Gold Price Decline: A Technical PerspectiveGold prices have dropped over $80 today, a decline of 3.00%, marking one of the most significant setbacks for the commodity this year. This comes after five consecutive days of gains last week. The dip coincides with easing geopolitical tensions following discussions of a potential cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon. Despite today’s slide, gold remains up 27.82% year-to-date, on track for its largest annual gain since 2010, when prices surged 29.6%. However, today’s seller momentum raises critical questions about the next moves for gold.Key Technical Levels to WatchOn the downside, the rising 100-day moving average (MA) serves as a crucial support level. Last week, gold’s November lows, reached on November 14 and 15, tested this level before rebounding sharply. That moving average is now a primary downside target, currently around $2562.67. Though gold is still $60+ above this level, its importance as a support zone cannot be overstated. The last sustained trade below the 100-day MA occurred in October 2023, with only brief breaches in mid-February.What’s Driving Seller Momentum?On the hourly chart, sellers gained control during the North American session after gold broke below its 100-hour moving average, now sitting at $2662. This level represents a near-term resistance point. A move back above $2662 could undermine today’s bearish technical break, providing buyers an opportunity to reclaim control.Downside Targets to MonitorIf the bearish momentum persists, the following levels are critical:50% retracement of the November 14 rally: $2628200-hour moving average: $2623.0561.8% retracement: $2606100-day moving average: $2562.67Sustained trading below the 200-hour MA at $2623.05 would likely embolden sellers, targeting the deeper retracements and, ultimately, the critical 100-day MA.OutlookWhile gold remains in a strong position for the year, technical indicators suggest sellers have the upper hand in the short term. A break below the 100-day moving average could signal a broader shift, but buyers might step in at these key levels to defend the bullish trend. Traders should closely monitor the interplay between these levels and market sentiment to gauge the next move.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCHF buyers take the price higher this week after basing at the 50% midpoint at 0.87989
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-buyers-take-the-price-higher-this-week-after-basing-at-the-50-midpoint-at-087989-20241122/
The USD/CHF pair, after trading within a range of 0.8400 to 0.8550 through late August and October, transitioned from consolidation into a trending phase. This shift began as prices broke through key levels in a step-by-step manner, marking the transition from non-trend to trend. Last week, the price moved above the 50% midpoint of the move down from the April high at 0.87989, and the 200 day MA at 0.88298. The price reached a target area near 0.8914 to 0.8923 and backed off into the close last Friday. Early this week, the pair moved lower initially, breaking below the 200-day moving average at 0.88298 and reaching the 50% retracement of the decline from the April high at 0.87989, near the natural support at 0.8800. At this level, sellers turned into buyers, driving a reversal higher.The price rebounded above the 200-day moving average midweek, retested it on Wednesday, and subsequently built momentum to the upside once again. This upward move, supported by broader dollar strength and weaker European currencies, pushed the pair above the 61.8% retracement of the April high at 0.8899 and a swing area between 0.8914 and 0.8923, which now serves as immediate support zones. Staying above 0.8900 maintains a bullish outlook, with further upside likely into the new trading week. The next major target lies around the psychological 0.9000 level.Conversely, if the price breaks below 0.8900, along with the lower bound of the swing area at 0.8880, a move back toward the 200-day moving average at 0.88208 becomes a possibility. For now, the pair's direction hinges on whether it can hold above these key support levels or retrace toward lower technical targets.--------------------------------------------USD/CHF Technical AnalysisThe USD/CHF pair transitioned from a consolidation phase to a trending phase, breaking through key levels in a step-by-step manner.Key Levels:Support: 0.8900, 0.8880 (lower bound of swing area)Resistance: 0.9000 (psychological level)Lower support at the 200-day Moving Average: 0.88208 and 50% retracement at 0.87989 (all it 0.8800)Trading Strategy:Staying above 0.8900 maintains a bullish outlook.Break below 0.8900 and 0.8880 could lead to a move toward the 200-day moving average.Next major target above 0.8900 is above and below 0.9000 level.Current Situation:The pair has built momentum to the upside, pushing above the 61.8% retracement of the April high and a swing area between 0.8914 and 0.8923. The direction now hinges on whether it can hold above key support levels.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Attack the currency trend: The EURUSD has been stepping lower with more selling today
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/attack-the-currency-trend-the-eurusd-has-been-stepping-lower-with-more-selling-today-20241122/
The EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend today, extending a week-long selloff as bearish momentum carried the price through key technical levels. Weak European flash PMI data and concerns from ECB officials over growth and inflation pressured the euro, while stronger-than-expected US PMI data (offset slightly by weaker University of Michigan data) provided support for the dollar. The pair broke below the 50% retracement of the trading range at 1.0405, reaching a low of 1.03322 before bouncing slightly.After significant selling, a corrective bounce is expected, but the strength of that correction will determine the next move. Today’s recovery took the price back above the 50% level to a post-low high of 1.0436, just 1 pip shy of the 38.2% retracement of the week’s range at 1.04372. Failure to breach the 38.2% level signals continued seller dominance. The price is now back below the 50% level, further reinforcing bearish control. If the price remains below 1.04372 and sellers push it back under 1.0405, a retest of the low at 1.03322 is likely, with potential for further downside if that level breaks.Conversely, a move back above 1.04372 could invite more upside probing. Initial targets include 1.04697, followed by the falling 100-hour MA at 1.0535 and the 200-hour MA at 1.0551. For now, the pair remains in a seller-driven market, with the focus on whether bearish momentum can extend or if buyers can stage a more meaningful recovery---------------------------------------------EURUSD Technical AnalysisThe EURUSD has continued its downward trend this week, with selling pressure intensifying after weak European flash PMI data and concerns about growth and inflation from ECB officials. In contrast, the US PMI data was stronger than expected.Key Levels:50% Midpoint of the range since 2022 : 1.0405 (broken today)38.2% Level of the weeks trading range: 1.04372 (resistance)100-hour Moving Average: 1.0535 (falling)200-hour Moving Average: 1.0551 (falling)Trading Strategy:If the price stays below 1.04372 (38.2% of the week's trading range) and breaks below 1.0405 (50% of the range since 2022 low), expect a run toward the lows for the day at 1.0332.A break below the lows could lead to further downside probing.If the price moves back above 1.04372 (38.2% of the week's range), expect further upside probing.Targets on the upside include 1.04697, 1.0535, and 1.0551.Current Situation:The current price is ticking back below the 50% midpoint, indicating sellers are in full control.Have you read my book Attacking Currency Trends. You can buy it on Amazon.com https://www.amazon.com/Attacking-Currency-Trends-Anticipate-Market/dp/0470874384/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_product_top?ie=UTF8
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD trading near the middle of the range for the week. Some ST bullish.Some ST bearish.
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-trading-near-the-middle-of-the-range-for-the-week-some-st-bullishsome-st-bearish-20241122/
The AUDUSD opened the week below a swing area between 0.6471 and 0.6479. On Monday the price moved above that area and stayed above it for the rest the week. In trading today, the low price move down to test a low of that swing area but found willing sellers. The price has since rotated toward the middle of what is the trading range for the week with a high near 0.6544. In the middle is the 100 and 200 hour moving averages between 0.6498 and 0.6508. The price is currently trading between those two moving averages wait for the next shove. That shove may come from the flash PMI data to be released at 9:45 AM ,. Fd by the Michigan consumer sentiment at 10 AM
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
What technical levels are in play for some of the major currencies vs the USD for Nov 22
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/what-technical-levels-are-in-play-for-some-of-the-major-currencies-vs-the-usd-for-nov-22-20241122/
The European data was yucky (if I can use a favorite word of my grandson). All the data from German GDP, to UK retail sales and flash services and manufacturing data missed the expectations. Only one, UK flash services PMI, was 50.0 or better and it came in right at 50.0. Below is summary of that data. Yucky:EUR German Final GDP q/q: MISSED - Actual 0.1% vs. Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.2%.GBP Retail Sales m/m: MISSED - Actual -0.7% vs. Forecast -0.3%, Previous 0.1%.EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI: MISSED - Actual 43.2 vs. Forecast 44.6, Previous 44.5.EUR French Flash Services PMI: MISSED - Actual 45.7 vs. Forecast 49.1, Previous 49.2.EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI: MISSED - Actual 43.2 vs. Forecast 43.1, Previous 43.0.EUR German Flash Services PMI: MISSED - Actual 49.4 vs. Forecast 51.6, Previous 51.6.EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI: MISSED - Actual 45.2 vs. Forecast 46.0, Previous 46.0.EUR Flash Services PMI: MISSED - Actual 49.2 vs. Forecast 51.6, Previous 51.6.GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI: MISSED - Actual 48.6 vs. Forecast 50.0, Previous 49.9.GBP Flash Services PMI: MISSED - Actual 50.0 vs. Forecast 51.9, Previous 52.0.The data pushed the EUR and GBP lower. The CHF also moved lower in sympathy. The USDJPY saw the JPY move lower but then move back to unchanged. For the commodity currencies, they are also weaker vs. the USD.SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasized the importance of Switzerland maintaining a flexible inflation target, which has allowed the central bank to respond effectively to economic shocks. He highlighted the central bank's primary tools as the policy rate and foreign exchange interventions. Schlegel noted that the global economic slowdown has impacted Switzerland more significantly due to the franc's appreciation, acknowledging its role as a safe-haven currency. He reaffirmed the SNB's commitment to ensuring price stability amidst these challenges.Next week, the RBNZ will meet. A Reuters poll released yesterday sees a 50 bp cut to 4.25% from 4.75% currently. Yields are lower in Europe and the US to start the day:German -8.4 bpsUK -4.9 bpsFrance -9.0 bpsSpain -9.1 bpsItaly -6.8 bpsIn the US:2 year -2.3 bps5 year -3.6 bps10 year -4.2 bps30 year -4.1 bpsStocks are mixed in Europe with German Dax up 0.34%, France's CAC up 0.10 and UK FTSE 100 up 0.93%.In the US, the futures are implying mixed levels:Dow +27.35 points. Yesterday the index rose 461 points or 1.06%S&P -3.71 points. Yesterday the index rose 31.60 points or 0.53%Nasdaq -28.75 points. Yesterday the index rose 6.28 points or 0.03%For the week, going into the last day of trading this wee:Dow up 0.98%S&P up 1.33%Nasdaq up 1.56%IN other markets:Crude oil is -$0.78 at $69.36Gold is up $28.83 or 1.07% at $2698Bitcoin reached a new high at $99.500 just short of BITCOIN $100K. The price is currently trading at $98,500. The low today reached $97,956. Today Canada retail sales (Est +0.4% and ex-auto +0.5%) will be released at 8:30 along with Canada New Housing prices (last 0.0%). Later at 9:45 AM ET, the US S&P Global PMI flash data will be released with Manufacturing expected at 48.8 vs 47.8 last month. The Services is estimated at 55.2 vs 55.3 last month. University of Michigan Final for November is expected at 73.7 vs 73.0 preliminary and 70.5 last month with 1 year inflation 2.6% and 5 year inflation at 3.1%. A look at the technicals for some of the major currency pairs going into the day shows:EURUSD: The EURUSD fell on the data today and breached the 50% of the trading range since the 2022 low (to the 2023 high). That level comes in at 1.04053. On the daily chart, if go back to 2022 swing lows and highs from May, June and August, that area came in at 1.03485 to 1.03678. The selling did not stop until
USDCHF Technical Analysis - The USD gets a bid on weak Eurozone PMIs
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdchf-technical-analysis-the-usd-gets-a-bid-on-weak-eurozone-pmis-20241122/
Fundamental
OverviewOverall, we’ve seen a
rangebound price action in the US Dollar this week as the market’s pricing
remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025 for the Fed.This morning, we saw some
strong bids in the greenback due to the weak Eurozone PMIs as the flows there spilled
over to other markets. On the CHF side, nothing
has changed as the market continues to price a 72% chance of a 25 bps cut in
December and a total of 70 bps of easing by the end of 2025. USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF spiked back to the recent high around the 0.8915 level following
the weak Eurozone PMIs. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will
have a better risk to reward setup around the major upward trendline (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/) to position for a rally into the 0.9050
level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
below the trendline to start targeting new lows.USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the upward spike this morning into the recent highs. This is
where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the high
to position for a drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into
the 0.9050 level next.USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum into the high. If we were to get a pullback, the buyers will likely
lean on it to position for a break above the recent highs. The sellers, on the
other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the
major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range (https://www.forexlive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/) for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday (https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar) we conclude the week with the US PMIs.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
NZDUSD index moves lower and sellers are in control, but there is some key support holding
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nzdusd-index-moves-lower-and-sellers-are-in-control-but-there-is-some-key-support-holding-20241121/
The NZDUSD fell sharply last week and in the process fell below a key support area between 0.5848 and 0.5859. That break failed and the price except back higher. In trading on Monday, the price fell back below that swing area for the second time, and for the second time the break failed.This time, the rebound took the price on Tuesday and into Wednesday above the swing low from three weeks ago and they swing low from last week at 0.5912. That break should've led to further upside probing, but it to failed quickly and has since rotated back down.Today the low price retested the high of the aforementioned swing area between 0.5848 and 0.5859. The buyers came in against the 0.5859 level and pushed the price back higher.It seems with two failures on the downside and a failure on the topside, that traders are bit cautious. That may get both the buyers and sellers a reason to buy low and sell high as the market decides what to do against is key support area.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
What technical levels are in play for some of the major currencies vs the USD for Nov 21
https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/what-technical-levels-are-in-play-for-some-of-the-major-currencies-vs-the-usd-for-nov-21-20241121/
As the North American session begins, the dollar is mixed. The USDJPY is lower (lower USD) by about 0.60% and is the biggest mover on the day. The EURUSD is also lower (higher USD) after a try higher stalled ahead of 100-hour MA resistance target. The GBPUSD is also lower (higher USD). The DXY dollar index is near unchanged at -0.04% overall. A review of the technicals for some of the major currency pairs vs the USD is below. The US yields are little changed to start the trading day. Yesterday, the US treasury auction of 20 year bonds was met with poor demand. Fed's Collins was more bearish. Overnight Fed's Barkin said he does not want to prejudge the December meeting, while Fed's WIlliams said that he is confident that disinflationary moves will continue but the labor market is strong as is the economy. Bitcoin is trading at $97500, up $3100 on the day and gettting closer to the Bitcoin $100K. Crude oil is higher and back above $70 at $70.03.US stock futures are implying a higher open. Nvidia shares are trading near unchanged currently after falling after earnings. The earnings beat expectations but not by enough (?). IN any case, the price is back trading near unchanged on the day. The major indices closed mixed yesterday. The Dow rose 139 points or 0.22%. The S&P closed unchanged and the Nasdaq fell -21.32 points or -0.11% thanks to a late day rally ahead of the Nvidia earnings. A look at the implied openings today is showing:Dow up 151 pointsS&P up 20 pointsNasdaq up 48 pointsEuropean major indices are rebounding. The German Dax is looking to snap a 4-day slide. German Dax +0.42%France's CAC -0.11%UK FTSE 100 +0.40%Spain's Ibex +0.25%EURUSD: Yesterday, the EURUSD trading the range for the week and a little. The little was on the downside where the pair extended below the Tuesday low at 1.0523. The Friday low at 1.05158 was also broken with the price reaching a low at 1.0506. That was still short of the low from last week - and the all time low - at 1.04956. Getting below each now - and staying below - is needed to add to the bearish bias.Today the price action moved higher in the Asian Pacific session, but fell short of the 100 hour MA above at 1.05612 (see blue line on the hourly chart below). Getting above that level is the minimum if the buyers are to take more control. Absent that, and the buyers are still losing. The sellers are in full control. The price is back down testing the low of a swing area at 1.05158 and the low from the year.USDJPY: The USDJPY moved higher yesterday and broke above the 100-hour MA (blue line on the chart below). Later it just tested the 100 hour MA and bounced. Buyers remained in the drivers seat.Today, the price moved lower in the Asian Pacific session and bounced again, but ultimately, the MA was broken and so was the rising 200-hour MA near the same level. The 100 and 200 hour MAs will be the short-term barometer for buyers and sellers. If the price stays below those two MAs at 154.79 and 154.86 currently, the sellers are in control. Conversely, if the price moves above those MAs, the buyers would take back control.A target on the downside that traders will eye is 153.88 which is the near highs from October 28 and October 29 and then was near swing levels on November 11, November 15, and November 18 (see red numbered circles). On Tuesday, the price traded in a volatile up-and-down range above and below the area, but I expect it to reestablish as a key level going forward. Be aware. GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved higher yesterday and tested the high from last Thursday's trading but fell short of that target. Buyers turned to selles with the rise in the USD and the 100 hour MA was broken in the run lower (blue line on the chart below).In trading
