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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
The SOPR ratio of <3-month holders—tracking the profit margin of active spenders—bounced off neutral (SOPR = 1) as BTC found support at $107k.
Short-term investors' on-chain behaviour confirms the market is anticipating a positive outcome from this week’s FOMC meeting.
This bounce suggests renewed confidence among recent buyers, with many returning to profitability just days ahead of the Fed decision. Historically, such patterns often precede sharp reactions to macro catalysts.
glassno.de/4po5uo2
US Spot #Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of ~5.9k BTC on Sept 10th, the largest daily inflow since mid-July.
This pushed weekly net flows positive, reflecting renewed ETF demand as BTC consolidates above the $114k level.
Chart Link: glassno.de/3IhGs9B
$BTC recovery has been fueled by macro momentum, ETF inflows, and futures. Yet weaker spot flows, softer funding, and profit-taking highlight emerging sell pressure, leaving sentiment improved but still fragile.
Read more in this week's Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4gpPe1X
The Week On-Chain 36, 2025
Bitcoin is range-bound at $110k–$116k as profit-taking and slower ETF inflows curb momentum. Derivatives dominate, with $114k key for upside and $108k the risk level below.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin holds in the $110k–$116k “air gap” after retreating from August highs. The $107k bounce drew dip-buyers, but short-term holder selling capped gains.
- Profit-taking by 3–6 month holders and losses from recent buyers weigh on momentum. Regaining $114k is key to restoring confidence and inflows.
- On-chain liquidity is steady but easing, while ETF flows have slowed to ~±500 BTC/day, tempering the TradFi demand that drove March and December rallies.
- With spot demand softer, derivatives lead. Futures remain balanced, and rising options open interest signals a more risk-managed structure.
- The market is at a crossroads: above $114k could unlock upside, while below $108k risks testing support near $93k.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Rangebound
Any supply below $111.1k continues to be absorbed by latent demand as we consolidate. A break above $114.1k could see us test the cluster at $118k.
Chart link: https://glassno.de/3HUCL9M
Solana continues to outperform, with perp open interest climbing above $7B as price extends beyond $200. Market participation is clearly expanding.
Despite the rise in open interest, Perpetual Funding Rates remain relatively stable. This suggests the build-up is not excessively leveraged, leaving scope for further upside if momentum persists.
Chart Links:
https://glassno.de/42kiGjZ
https://glassno.de/42oenEe
Bitcoin’s 25 Delta Skew (1 Month) has been climbing to new highs, reflecting strong put demand. This isn’t purely a sign of bearishness; it often signals institutional hedging activity. With the rise of Bitcoin ETFs and DATs, institutions are stepping in, gaining exposure while using puts to manage downside risk.
Chart link: https://glassno.de/4n4eDR2
Bitcoin’s futures funding rates are cooling, now around $366k/hour - near the neutral threshold of $300k/hour for this cycle. A break below this level would signal fading demand and deepen the off-chain divergence from prior bullish phases.
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Average Bitcoin supply per whale (entities holding 100-10k BTC) has been steadily declining since November 2024, now sitting at ~488 BTC per whale - levels last seen in December 2018.
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Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) shows a clear divergence in spot flows between Bitcoin and Ethereum: BTC spot activity is dense, while ETH remains sparse with air gaps. This suggests ETH price dynamics may be more influenced by off-chain markets such as derivatives.
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US spot Ethereum ETFs saw significant inflows of +286k ETH last week, one of the strongest weekly prints since launch. Despite ETH closing the week near $4.4k, institutional demand via ETFs remains firm.
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No altcoin sector outperformed ETH over the past month, though DeFi and Layer 2 came close. Notably, most altcoin sectors ended the period in decline.
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ETH option skews rotated quickly over the past week.
• Aug 22: upside bias (calls richer, 1w -7%).
• Aug 25: defensive shift (puts richer, 1w +4%).
• Aug 28: neutral (~0% across tenors).
Traders rapidly repriced ETH risk from upside to downside and back to balance.
MVRV standard deviation bands help anchor expectations for SOL. Since the March 2024 top, the +0.5σ band has acted as resistance, where profit-taking outweighed demand. Price now sits near the mean ($210). If defended, the +0.5σ band at ~$275 becomes the next test.
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The Relative Unrealized Loss of BTC investors sits at just 0.5% - far from the >30% levels typical of bear market extremes. This reinforces that most holders remain in profit, despite growing short-term stress.
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Throughout this bull market, BTC short-term holder realized price has effectively served as a support baseline.
As long as the price respects this level, the trend remains constructive. Losing this support has coincided with phases of contraction or pullbacks.
Chart Link: https://glassno.de/41UGivu
Since our Aug 25 post, distribution has softened but not reversed. Most $BTC cohorts remain below the 0.5 threshold, indicating sell-side pressure persists. No group is showing strong accumulation (>0.8). The market remains in a broadly neutral-to-distribution regime.
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Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution highlights dense support around $110k–$114k, where a large share of supply was acquired. The next major supply zone sits near $117k, which may provide resistance if price tests this level.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain
Bitcoin entities holding 100–1k BTC (“sharks”) have sharply ramped up accumulation. Over the past 7 days, their holdings grew by ~65k BTC. The pace of accumulation has grown as well, with a 30D net increase of 93k BTC. This group now holds a record 3.65M BTC.
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Consolidation Range
Bitcoin is currently trading at $111.1k, stuck between the 0.85 and 0.94 quantile cost basis band ($104.1k–$114.1k). This range historically marks post-euphoria consolidation. A break below signals further exhaustion, while a reclaim above $114k could mark renewed demand strength.
Chart here: glassno.de/3I3snwq
Bitcoin has been trading just above the short-term holder cost basis, oscillating near $111k. This week’s Market Pulse reviews fragile stabilization across spot, futures, ETFs, and on-chain signals, with cautious sentiment still dominating: https://glassno.de/4nkrdvc
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Over 50% of ETH ETF inflows have been mirrored by rising CME open interest, indicating that TradFi activity isn't purely directional. The data suggests a mix of outright exposure and arbitrage strategies as ETH trades below local highs.
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The Week On-Chain 35, 2025
Bitcoin is consolidating in the $104k–$116k air gap after significant absorption by investors. Futures and ETF flows show cooling demand. Strength above $116k could revive the uptrend, while a breakdown risks a move toward $93k–$95k.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin trades near $112k, consolidating $104k–$116k. URPD shows dip-buying in $108k–$116k, though further contraction isn’t ruled out.
- Breaking below the 0.95-quantile cost basis ended a 3.5-month euphoric phase, placing price back in the $104k–$114k consolidation band.
- Short-term holder profitability fell to 42% before rebounding to 60%, leaving the market neutral but fragile unless price reclaims $114k–$116k.
- Off-chain sentiment cools: futures funding is neutral but vulnerable, and ETF inflows have slowed, Bitcoin flows were spot-driven, Ethereum mixed with arbitrage.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Sizing Up the Dip
Trading at $110k, only ~9% of BTC supply is in loss, carrying up to 10% unrealized losses. In contrast, the local bottom of this cycle saw >25% of supply at up to 23% losses, and global bear markets have reached >50% supply with up to 78% losses.
This dip remains relatively shallow.
Chart here: https://glassno.de/4nepLKZ
Bitcoin Market Pulse
BTC pulled back to $107k last week, testing the short-term holder cost basis - a level that often defines near-term sentiment.
Spot signals weakened with RSI in oversold territory and volumes down, while futures OI contracted and options skew surged, showing stronger demand for downside protection. ETF flows turned positive with $396M inflows, but participation remains selective.
On-chain activity stayed subdued: active addresses fell to 690k, fees remain weak, and realized cap inflows slowed. Transfer volumes spiked to $10.8B, reflecting large entity repositioning rather than broad participation.
We also cover holder rotation, ETF MVRV trends, and how fading unrealized profits are reshaping sentiment: https://glassno.de/41wP6aE
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of +3,018 BTC last week. This marked a return to positive flows after the prior week of outflows, bringing renewed support despite choppy price action around $108k.
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Studying total daily USDT transfer volume on Ethereum, shows a clear pattern since the cycle low: each major BTC rally triggered a >250% surge in USDT activity, followed by a cooldown phase as BTC slipped into downward consolidation.
Chart here: https://glassno.de/41tDxkA
Though SOL recently saw an uptick in realized cap growth - a sign of new inflows - and Ethereum plateaued, ETH continues to lead. Over the past month, ETH’s realized cap grew +9.4% vs +4.9% for SOL and +2.6% for BTC.
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Spot market bias has reset. Bitcoin’s CVD across major venues has reverted to neutral, contrasting with strong April buyer dominance. This suggests waning conviction among spot participants near $111k.
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Bitcoin trades below the $113.6k and $115.6k cost basis of the 1M and 3M cohorts. With short-term holders under water, rallies may face resistance as these investors seek to exit at breakeven.
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