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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
With the price breaking above $117k, over 95% of the circulating supply has returned to profit.
This is a hallmark of Euphoria phases, where widespread profitability often fuels accelerated profit-taking and rising market risk.
📈:https://glassno.de/4nDmNQG
Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution shows thin support between $121K and $120K, with a key cluster near $117K where around 190K BTC were last acquired.
A pullback into this area could attract demand as recent buyers defend the level.
📈: https://glassno.de/48Qooht
#Bitcoin spot ETF flows have turned sharply positive, driving price to new all-time highs.
Renewed institutional demand is reinforcing market momentum, marking a key shift in capital flows after weeks of outflows.
Sustained inflows signal strengthening structural support into Q4.
The Week On-Chain 39, 2025
Bitcoin holds support at the STH cost basis, with ETFs and slowing LTH sell pressure adding stability. Options reset post-expiry as OI rebuilds, vol eases, and flows tilt toward cautious Q4 upside.
Executive Summary
- STH cost basis defended repeatedly, acting as a key pivot between bullish continuation and downside risk. Resistance sits near $118k supply cluster.
- LTH selling cooled after months of distribution, while ETF inflows resumed, stabilizing market structure.
- Fear & Greed Index slid from Greed to Neutral/Fear, showing profit-taking and reduced risk appetite.
- RVT trends confirm cooling, with fewer profits realized relative to network value.
- Options OI reset post-record expiry, now rebuilding into Q4 with room for fresh positioning.
- Volatility easing: front-end IV declining, skew normalizing, term structure in contango with back-end IV steady at 39–43%.
- Flows show cautious upside: traders adding risk reversals, cheap convexity, while selling puts.
- Dealer gamma balanced, muting hedging flows and dampening intraday volatility; no large expiries ahead.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter
Bitcoin dominance has rebounded from 57% to 59% alongside price strength near $114k.
This mean reversion suggests a healthier market structure, as $BTC-led rallies have historically proven more sustainable than those driven by altcoins.
🔗https://glassno.de/4o2XebP
#Bitcoin 1M 25-delta skew keeps climbing, with puts priced at a premium over calls. Traders are paying up for downside protection, reflecting near-term caution, while upside optionality looks cheaper with implied vols still near historic lows.
🔗https://glassno.de/4nnTxNT
Over the weekend, #Bitcoin Futures markets built up significant short exposure around $110k–$111k.
This morning’s move higher forced liquidations across these clusters, clearing positioning and adding momentum to the upside as the market reset.
🔗https://glassno.de/487iUyG
The Week On-Chain 38, 2025
#Bitcoin shows exhaustion post-FOMC as LTHs realized 3.4M BTC in profit and ETF inflows slowed. With spot and futures weak, $111k STH cost basis is key support or risk downside.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin Correction: Post-FOMC, price action reflects “buy the rumour, sell the news” with fading momentum.
- On-chain: Drawdown mild at 8%, but $678B inflows and 3.4M BTC in LTH profits show major capital rotation.
- ETFs vs LTHs: ETF inflows slowed as LTH distribution accelerated, leaving flows fragile.
- Spot & Futures: Spot volumes spiked, futures deleveraged, and liquidation clusters highlight liquidity risk.
- Options: Skew surged and puts bid, showing defensive positioning as macro signals exhaustion.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter
#Bitcoin has slipped below the 0.95 Cost Basis Quantile, a key risk band that often marks profit-taking zones.
Reclaiming it would signal renewed strength, but failure to do so risks a drift toward lower supports around $105k–$90k.
🔗https://glassno.de/3IE26F0
This chart measures the cumulative profit realized (in BTC) by long-term holders from the moment a new cycle ATH is set until the final peak.
So far, LTHs have realized 3.4M BTC—a historically large volume compared to prior cycles.
📈 https://glassno.de/4mr1VuD
The short-term holder cost basis is often treated as the key battle line between bulls & bears, and currently sits at $111.4k 🔵.
Sustained trading below this level could signal a shift toward a mid- to long-term bearish market structure.
https://glassno.de/46NvTEt
Bitcoin Liquidation & Positioning Dashboard Now Live on Glassnode
https://glassno.de/4px5Zwi
Built to track leverage and risk across BTC markets.
Post #FOMC, we can see that #BTC shorts at 117k were taken out, and long liquidations are appearing at 112.7k.
Bitcoin traders are leaning net short, with data indicating a net short position of -485 BTC in aggregate. This skew highlights lingering caution, even as spot price holds above $117k.
The Liquidation Wall view shows ~5k BTC of long exposure vulnerable if support breaks, versus a significant build-up of short positions at higher levels. This creates a two-sided risk profile for price.
#Bitcoin's CBD heatmap shows the supply clustered around $117k, presenting a key resistance zone. Clearing this level could open the way to thinner supply above, while failure risks prolonging consolidation or a contraction.
📈https://glassno.de/4ppLIsx
Over the past 48 hours, centralized exchanges have seen three distinct waves of inflows exceeding $25M per block.
The latest wave aligned with BTC’s pullback from $117.2k, suggesting a partial spot market sell-off.
📈https://glassno.de/46NPO5l
#Bitcoin is ~6.8% below its ATH, heading into the most anticipated FOMC meeting of the cycle.
Options traders are rapidly buying options to hedge or position for a volatility spike, reflecting the market’s uncertainty and expectation of a major move.
https://glassno.de/46G8Vz9
#BTC Futures Open Interest rose sharply as traders added longs during the breakout to new highs.
The current pullback is testing these positions, helping to reset leverage. It will be key to see where buyers step in and whether support levels attract renewed demand.
📈 https://glassno.de/46GsDen
#Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high above $125K, driven by strong ETF inflows, renewed spot demand, and rising on-chain activity. The rally appears structurally supported, not purely speculative.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/46CWbcJ
The Trend Accumulation Score highlights a shift in recent days. Mid-sized #BTC holders are accumulating strongly, whale distribution has moderated, and smaller entities remain neutral. This points to fresh structural demand emerging despite continued large holder selling.
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#Bitcoin US Spot ETFs recorded persistent outflows in late September, exceeding 16k BTC over a two-week stretch.
Flows have since reversed, with 3.2k BTC of inflows on Sept 30, highlighting a potential shift in sentiment.
🔗https://glassno.de/4nRAvPC
#Bitcoin short-term holder RVT has compressed toward cycle lows, reflecting muted realized profits relative to network valuation. Historically, such resets often align with periods of market detox, helping build a foundation for more durable recoveries.
https://glassno.de/471jtJf
#Bitcoin traded above the STH cost basis near $111k this week. Spot momentum softened as the 14D RSI eased, while stronger Spot CVD signaled reduced net selling pressure.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/3KMwVIg
#BTC Options Weekly
The largest options expiry on Deribit has reset positioning, with BTC settling at $109k vs. a $110k max pain. With expiries cleared, the market faces a clean slate. Monitoring OI, term structure, skew, vol spreads, and flows will be key to assessing sentiment
Read the full BTC Options Weekly here
#Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score has softened, with muted conviction from large cohorts despite elevated prices.
Lighter accumulation signals a more cautious bid, leaving the market vulnerable to supply overhang unless demand re-intensifies.
🔗https://glassno.de/4gGE7S9
#Bitcoin US spot ETF flows have cooled after strong September inflows, with the latest sessions tipping into mild outflows. While overall accumulation remains intact, the slowdown suggests a pause in institutional demand.
🔗https://glassno.de/46R0YHr
#Bitcoin futures open interest fell from $44.8B to $42.8B as price slid to $113k.
The flush in leverage reflects reduced speculative exposure, often a healthy reset that can stabilize derivatives markets and lower the risk of forced liquidations.
📈 https://glassno.de/3K9e6Pw
#Bitcoin rallied to $117k into FOMC before slipping below $115k. Spot shows cooling momentum, futures and options signal sell pressure with rising vol, ETF inflows slowed, while on-chain activity improved.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/47WorrW
The Week On-Chain 37, 2025
Bitcoin is above $115.2K with 95% of supply in profit post-FOMC. Futures saw short squeezes, while options OI hit a record 500K BTC ahead of Sept 26 expiry. Holding $115.2K is key; losing it risks a drop toward $105.5K.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin gained momentum into the Sept 17 FOMC, with derivatives shifting from risk-off to balanced. Spot showed mild sell pressure, while perpetuals absorbed via short squeezes.
- Perpetual OI peaked at 395K BTC before easing to ~380K as volatility flushed leverage.
- Options OI hit a record 500K BTC ahead of the Sept 26 expiry, with $110K max pain likely to influence spot.
- Volatility repricing lifted the 1M IV–RV spread, while dealer hedging flows support rallies and cushion dips.
- On-chain, BTC trades above $115.2K, cost basis for 95% of supply. Holding is key; losing risks a move toward $105.5K.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter
US Spot #Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net inflows, with recent activity pushing firmly into positive territory. This reinforces institutional demand as a key pillar of market support, even as price slowly climbs near cycle highs.
https://glassno.de/47Qk41y
This week, crypto rallied broadly—but Perpetual Open Interest tells a mixed story.
BTC and SOL saw notable OI declines, suggesting reduced speculative positioning while squeezing shorts during the move.
Meanwhile, ETH, XRP, and BNB showed rising OI, signaling renewed trader engagement and growing appetite for directional exposure.
📈http://glassno.de/3IqXhih
This renewed confidence largely stems from price reclaiming the cost basis of all sub-3-month holders, which ranges between $111.8k and $114.2k.
For this momentum to hold, BTC must remain above this range post-FOMC. Failure to do so could signal a classic “sell the news” market structure.
glassno.de/4mud4Lu