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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
#BTC Net-premium flows reveal concentrated selling across the $109K–$115K range, indicating that recent moves higher are being used to hedge.
This suggests traders are positioning defensively into strength while the market consolidates.
🔗 https://glassno.de/3WkStyy
The Week On-Chain 42, 2025
Bitcoin trading below key cost basis levels signals demand exhaustion. Long-term holders are selling into strength, while rising put demand and higher volatility show a defensive market.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin trades below the short-term holders’ cost basis and the 0.85 quantile, signalling fading momentum and growing market fatigue. Repeated failures to reclaim these levels raise the risk of a longer consolidation phase.
- Long-term holders have ramped up spending since July, now exceeding 22K BTC/day, marking sustained profit-taking that continues to pressure market stability.
- Open interest hit a new ATH, but sentiment leans bearish as traders favour puts over calls. Short-term rallies are being met with hedging rather than renewed optimism.
- Implied volatility remains elevated, while realized volatility has caught up, ending the calm, low-volatility regime. Dealers’ short gamma positioning amplifies selloffs and tempers rallies.
- Both on-chain and options data suggest a cautious, transitional phase. Market recovery is likely to hinge on renewed spot demand and easing volatility.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter
Inspecting the monthly average spending by long-term holders shows a clear trend: their outflows have risen steadily from ~12.5k BTC/day in early July to 22.5k BTC/day now (30D-SMA).
This highlights growing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts.
🔗https://glassno.de/3Wj2wUD
#Bitcoin open interest has dropped by ~30%, flushing excess leverage from the market. With funding now near neutral, the market is far less vulnerable to another liquidation cascade.
🔗https://glassno.de/4obq1v9
The October 10 liquidation wave prompted caution, yet liquidity, macro, and regulatory conditions remain broadly supportive.
Our latest joint report with
@CoinbaseInsto
examines current market trends through data-driven insight.
Read the full report → http://glassno.de/charting_crypto
The Week On-Chain 41, 2025
Bitcoin’s rally to $126k reversed amid macro stress and a $19B futures wipeout. ETF inflows slowing and volatility spiking, the market enters a reset phase marked by a historic leverage flush.
Executive Summary
-Bitcoin’s rally to a new all-time high at $126.1k reversed amid macro tensions and a $19B futures deleveraging, one of the largest in history. The drop below the $117k–$114k cost-basis zone placed top buyers in loss and exposed renewed market fragility.
- On-chain data show continued Long-Term Holder distribution since July and weaker ETF inflows (-2.3k BTC this week), indicating fading institutional demand. Meanwhile, spot markets experienced a sharp but orderly sell-off, with Binance-driven selling partially offset by buying on Coinbase.
- Futures markets underwent a historic leverage flush, with the Estimated Leverage Ratio collapsing to multi-month lows and funding rates plunging to 2022 FTX levels, signalling peak fear and forced liquidations.
- In the options market, open interest and volume rebounded quickly, but volatility spiked to 76%, and short-dated skew flipped to +17% put-rich before stabilizing. The market remains in a reset phase, awaiting renewed demand to confirm recovery.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter
This heatmap highlights the intensity of Open Interest decline across the top 100 assets last Friday, revealing just how widespread the liquidation pressure truly was.
📈 https://glassno.de/3KMz0nQ
Bitcoin has stabilized above the 135-day moving average, while the Young Supply MVRV has reset toward 1.0. Together, these signal a market cooling from speculative extremes while maintaining structure.
🔗https://glassno.de/3Ja7Fve
Friday’s wipeout triggered the largest futures liquidation in Bitcoin’s history. Over $11B in open interest was erased as leverage was forcefully unwound. A historic deleveraging event that has reset speculative excess across the market.
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🧵/6- Our #BTC Long/Short Bias chart, tracking the aggregate net positions of the largest BTC traders on Hyperliquid, showed a steep rise in net shorts starting in October 6th, well before Friday's events. While levels have since recovered, they remain deeply negative.
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🧵/4- This was the largest liquidation event on record so far. And with incomplete reporting across exchanges, real figures are almost certainly larger.
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🧵/2 - Altcoin funding rates plunged to a median of -0.4 yesterday – levels not seen since the 2022 bear market. Today, they’ve reset and bounced back above zero, signaling a swift shift in positioning.
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Analyzing the behavior of XRP investors who accumulated below ~$1, we see significant profit-taking as price surged above $2 (>100% gains). Two major realization waves—Dec 2024 and July 2025—have so far exhausted much of the market’s bullish momentum.
📉https://glassno.de/4q5doTC
#BTC Futures Open Interest remains elevated as both longs and shorts are being whipsawed by sharp price swings. The market is undergoing a leverage reset, with volatility flushing out excess positioning on both sides.
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The Week On-Chain 40, 2025
Bitcoin broke above the $114k–$117k supply zone to new highs near $126k, driven by strong ETF inflows and mid-tier accumulation. On-chain remains firm, though rising leverage adds short-term risk.
Executive Summary
- On-chain profitability has surged, with 97% of supply now in profit. While elevated profit levels often precede consolidation, realized profits remain contained, suggesting an orderly rotation rather than distribution pressure.
- The $117K supply cluster has been flipped into support, marking a structural pivot where small and mid-sized holders continue to accumulate, offsetting moderate profit-taking from larger entities.
- Bitcoin has broken to new all-time highs near $126K, driven by renewed spot demand and record ETF inflows exceeding $2.2B. The surge in institutional participation has lifted both price and market activity, with spot volumes reaching multi-month highs as Q4 begins.
- Derivatives markets expanded sharply during the rally, with futures open interest and funding rates rising as late longs entered. The current pullback is now testing this leverage, helping to reset positioning and restore balance.
- In the options market, implied volatility has lifted, skew turned neutral, and call-heavy flows dominate. Momentum remains strong, but bullish positioning is becoming increasingly crowded.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter
Short-Term Holder NUPL highlights growing stress among recent buyers, reflecting a meaningful cooling of speculative excess. Historically, this type of short-term holder pain has aligned with healthier market conditions.
🔗https://glassno.de/3L4nUur
Bitcoin’s derivatives landscape is changing as Options OI begins to rival Futures. Markets are shifting toward defined-risk and volatility strategies, meaning options flows, rather than futures liquidations, are becoming a more influential force in shaping price action.
🔗https://glassno.de/4nnVvgp
🔗https://glassno.de/3WOrziu
Long-term holder supply has declined by another 28K BTC since October 15th, meaning LTHs have spent more coins than what was aging into their cohort from short-term holders.
This reflects excessive net distribution rather than passive maturation.
🔗https://glassno.de/4qBULXY
#Bitcoin dropped from $115K to $104K in just four days, triggering a sharp de-risking across the market.
Since then, BTC bounced to $111K, but sentiment remains cautious and positioning is still defensive.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4qiKYpp
Smaller #BTC holders are stepping up.
Strong accumulation is underway among small to mid-sized cohorts (1–1000 BTC), while large holders have slowed distribution, signaling renewed confidence in spite of the recent shakeout.
#BTC Options markets show net premium concentration at $115k–$130k, suggesting traders remain positioned for upside.
Despite the futures flush, call demand dominates, implying investors see the drawdown as a leverage reset.
🔗https://glassno.de/3WEpF40
The recent sell-off occurred with over 90% of Bitcoin supply still in profit, with most losses coming from top buyers.
Unlike the FTX and Luna crashes, when under 65% of supply was in profit, this was not a broad capitulation but a structurally different, leverage-driven event.
#Bitcoin endured its largest leverage wipeout in history, with $19B in open interest erased and funding collapsing. The market is now recalibrating amid slower momentum, cooling profit-taking, and steady ETF demand.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/3KSFQrL
Funding rates across the crypto market have plunged to their lowest levels since the depths of the 2022 bear market.
This marks one of the most severe leverage resets in crypto history, a clear sign of how aggressively speculative excess has been flushed from the system.
🧵/5- Hyperliquid’s heatmap of #BTC liquidation clusters was virtually wiped clean. Levels both above and below spot were triggered, likely driven by a rapid buildup of liquidation levels in cross-margined accounts and traders closing positions in light of the events.
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🧵/3 - We saw the largest open interest wipe-out in history. For #BTC alone, over $10B in open interest was erased across all major exchanges.
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🧵/1- While #Bitcoin corrected comparatively mildly, unsurprisingly, alts saw one of the sharpest daily drawdowns in years: the median return across alts was as low as –20%.
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#BTC ETF inflows have continued despite the recent pullback, showing that institutional demand remains steady even as derivatives traders get chopped.
This suggests structural buying is still underpinning the market, helping to absorb volatility and stabilize price action.
#Bitcoin continues to trade well above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis.
The rally remains below the Heated zone (+1 STD), suggesting momentum is high but approaching short-term risk conditions.
Large traders demonstrated expert timing as $BTC reversed from recent highs.
The shift to a net short bias suggests profit-taking on longs alongside new short positioning.
Track these shifts in positioning in real time:
🔗https://glassno.de/3KFjk5N