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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
Bitcoin has lost support at the 85th percentile cost basis (~$109K) and is now hovering near $103.5K.
The next key level sits around the 75th percentile cost basis (~$99K), which has historically provided support during pullbacks.
📉https://glassno.de/4ojfrSN
Since July, BTC has consistently failed to reclaim the cost basis of the top buyers' supply.
This increases the odds of a retest of the 0.8-quantile cost basis (~$104K) as top buyers capitulate, transferring coins to stronger hands.
A process that often demands time or deeper discounts.
📉http://glassno.de/4qwKX1c
Short-Term Holders are facing renewed pressure as recent buyers move into a loss.
Historically, such periods of STH stress and capitulation have marked attractive accumulation opportunities for patient investors.
🔗https://glassno.de/4oqsJwY
#BTC Options Weekly
The Fed delivered the expected rate cut, but the hawkish tone for December has cooled optimism. The initial rally faded as traders moved back into cautious mode, a shift clearly reflected in BTC’s options market.
Check out our latest BTC Options Weekly
These investors accumulated heavily between October 2024 (election period) & April 2025, with a cost basis ranging from $70k to $96k, averaging around $93k.
A breakdown below the $93k–$96k range would mark maximum pain for this cohort.
📈 https://glassno.de/4qzGXgv
Long-term holder spending rose from ~$1B/day (7D-SMA) in mid-July to $2–3B/day by early October.
Unlike previous high-spending phases in this cycle, this distribution regime has been gradual and persistent, rather than marked by a sharp spike.
📈 https://glassno.de/3X4EPQc
The Week On-Chain 43, 2025
Bitcoin remains stuck below key cost-basis levels as demand softens and long-term holders sell. Volatility is subdued but uneasy, leaving markets vulnerable to a hawkish Fed surprise.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin’s weekend rebound from the $107K–$118K supply cluster mirrored previous post-ATH relief rallies, but sustained sell pressure from long-term holders has limited follow-through.
- The market continues to struggle above the short-term holders’ cost basis (~$113K), a critical battleground between bull and bear momentum. Failure to reclaim this level raises the risk of deeper retracement toward the Active Investors’ Realized Price (~$88K).
- Short-term holders are exiting at a loss, while long-term holders remain heavy net distributors (~–104K BTC/month), signaling waning conviction and ongoing supply absorption.
- Implied volatility has cooled sharply after October’s crash, with skew flattening and options flows reflecting controlled upside and measured downside hedging.
- The current calm in volatility hinges on the Federal Reserve’s next decision. A dovish outcome would preserve stability, but any hawkish surprise could reignite volatility and downside protection demand
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter
The bounce from $107k coincided with US Spot ETF netflows turning positive. However, inflows remain <1k BTC/day, significantly lower than >2.5k BTC/day seen at the start of major rallies this cycle.
Demand is recovering, but not at the intensity of recent rallies.
📈 https://glassno.de/4htoZIg
#Bitcoin is stabilizing as sell pressure eases and profitability improves, but muted activity and selective participation suggest a cautious, rangebound market until major demand steps in.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/47aJrdz
A hallmark of bull markets is a low Relative Unrealized Loss, typically <5%. This metric tracks the USD loss of all coins currently underwater, normalized by market cap.
The current bull market has held this structure since November 2023, making it more persistent than the equivalent phases in the last two cycles.
🔗 https://glassno.de/3L8BbSI
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing net outflows, which have often clustered around local market lows as sentiment unwinds.
When flows stabilize or turn positive, it has historically aligned with renewed demand and the early stages of trend recovery.
🔗https://glassno.de/42XGsml
#BTC Net-premium flows reveal concentrated selling across the $109K–$115K range, indicating that recent moves higher are being used to hedge.
This suggests traders are positioning defensively into strength while the market consolidates.
🔗 https://glassno.de/3WkStyy
The Week On-Chain 42, 2025
Bitcoin trading below key cost basis levels signals demand exhaustion. Long-term holders are selling into strength, while rising put demand and higher volatility show a defensive market.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin trades below the short-term holders’ cost basis and the 0.85 quantile, signalling fading momentum and growing market fatigue. Repeated failures to reclaim these levels raise the risk of a longer consolidation phase.
- Long-term holders have ramped up spending since July, now exceeding 22K BTC/day, marking sustained profit-taking that continues to pressure market stability.
- Open interest hit a new ATH, but sentiment leans bearish as traders favour puts over calls. Short-term rallies are being met with hedging rather than renewed optimism.
- Implied volatility remains elevated, while realized volatility has caught up, ending the calm, low-volatility regime. Dealers’ short gamma positioning amplifies selloffs and tempers rallies.
- Both on-chain and options data suggest a cautious, transitional phase. Market recovery is likely to hinge on renewed spot demand and easing volatility.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter
Inspecting the monthly average spending by long-term holders shows a clear trend: their outflows have risen steadily from ~12.5k BTC/day in early July to 22.5k BTC/day now (30D-SMA).
This highlights growing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts.
🔗https://glassno.de/3Wj2wUD
#Bitcoin open interest has dropped by ~30%, flushing excess leverage from the market. With funding now near neutral, the market is far less vulnerable to another liquidation cascade.
🔗https://glassno.de/4obq1v9
#Bitcoin stayed rangebound this week as momentum improved, but capital inflows softened. ETF outflows and declining profitability point to ongoing consolidation in a balanced market.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/43KcMJx
Over the past three weeks, BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF has seen less than 0.6k BTC in weekly net inflows.
This is a sharp decline from the >10K BTC net inflow per week that preceded each major rally this cycle, signalling a notable slowdown in institutional demand.
📉http://glassno.de/USSpotETFFlows
Since early August, XRP price has dropped from $3.3 to $2.4 (-27% 🔽).
At the same time, long-term holders who accumulated before Nov 2024 ramped up their spending by ~580%, from $38M/day to $260M/day (7D-SMA)
A clear sign of seasoned traders exiting and adding pressure to price action.
📉glassno.de/3WtnfFv
#BTC retested the 0.85 cost-basis band around $109K, historically a make-or-break level.
Holding it has sparked major rallies, but losing it often sees a slide toward the 0.75 band ($98K).
📈https://glassno.de/47kDhHS
Filtering by age cohort reveals that 6m–12m holders drove over 50% of recent sell pressure—especially during the late stages of the top formation.
Around the $126k ATH, their spending exceeded $648M/day (7D-SMA); over 5x their baseline earlier in 2025.
📈https://glassno.de/4oPMJZT
Yesterday, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of –$93M, highlighting rising sell pressure from TradFi investors and renewed weakness in institutional demand.
📈https://glassno.de/4oN6SQ5
#BTC Futures are still seeing muted activity following the historic wipeout on 10/10.
Open Interest is still ±30% off the highs, and Funding is close to neutral.
🔗https://glassno.de/4nEmUek
Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution shows support near $111K and heavy supply around $117K.
This range defines the current battleground between recent buyers and profit-takers. A break in either direction could set the tone for the next major move.
🔗https://glassno.de/3WXsmOb
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) Oscillator continues to sit near cycle lows, indicating ample stablecoin liquidity relative to Bitcoin. Historically, such periods precede stronger bid-side support when market confidence returns.
🔗https://glassno.de/4osY1n7
#BTC Options Weekly
The BTC options market keeps expanding fast, shaping how traders price risk and volatility. Reading implied volatility, skew, and options flows helps spot shifts in sentiment before price reacts.
Check out our latest BTC Options Weekly
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https://glassno.de/47huEMY
Short-Term Holder NUPL highlights growing stress among recent buyers, reflecting a meaningful cooling of speculative excess. Historically, this type of short-term holder pain has aligned with healthier market conditions.
🔗https://glassno.de/3L4nUur
Bitcoin’s derivatives landscape is changing as Options OI begins to rival Futures. Markets are shifting toward defined-risk and volatility strategies, meaning options flows, rather than futures liquidations, are becoming a more influential force in shaping price action.
🔗https://glassno.de/4nnVvgp
🔗https://glassno.de/3WOrziu
Long-term holder supply has declined by another 28K BTC since October 15th, meaning LTHs have spent more coins than what was aging into their cohort from short-term holders.
This reflects excessive net distribution rather than passive maturation.
🔗https://glassno.de/4qBULXY
#Bitcoin dropped from $115K to $104K in just four days, triggering a sharp de-risking across the market.
Since then, BTC bounced to $111K, but sentiment remains cautious and positioning is still defensive.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4qiKYpp