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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
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Strategy Watch is our monthly read on fund performance, capital flows, and allocator positioning across digital assets, produced with Crypto Insights Group
Edition #8 is live now
Holders are realizing profits on $BTC.
However, the amounts remain relatively low, with $5.1B in net profit realized over the last 7 days.
They look closer to late 2023 levels than to what we saw at major tops.
Bitcoin is back above the levels that held it down all year.
Our new Week On-chain report maps where it could go next.
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Try : "Use Glassnode data to tell me if the Bitcoin market is overheated"
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Watch on X
$BTC has flashed the momentum signal that started the last two bull markets.
MVRV has crossed back above its 365-day average.
This is the same cross that we saw in 2019 and 2023 at the beginning of each bull market.
The altcoin cycle signal has just flipped from bitcoin to altcoin season.
The first rally in August saw altcoins stay relatively flat while BTC moved.
However, today's rally has ignited the full breadth of the altcoin market.
As $BTC has touched $86k, long leverage is slowly rebuilding in the options market.
Open Interest put/call ratios are moving up.
However, this still remains far from the frothy levels we saw near the BTC top.
Perp speculation also remains muted with funding below neutral.
As expected, $BTC accelerated through the wall of short liquidations.
Shorts accumulated between $82k and $86k for months, however the rejection from this level was shallow.
Now these shorts are the fuel, as these traders are required to buy back BTC.
$BTC is climbing into a thickening liquidation shelf.
The dense cluster sits around $83k–$86k.
If reached, price could move quickly through this zone as shorts are forced to cover.
These shorts have been building for several weeks.
$BTC has reclaimed the True Market Mean.
That puts price back above a crucial level and back into a bullish regime.
Next major overhead is the corporate treasury cost basis around $80k and finally the ETF cost basis at $85k.
In our joint report with Bybit, we analyze how the crypto derivatives landscape has changed shape.
Read the full report
Bitcoin has slipped below its multi-week range just as the Fed decides on rates.
Support under price is thin, but the potential catalyst here is strong.
Our latest Week On-Chain report covers what to watch for.
Late August saw the broadest burst of altcoin gains this year.
At the same time, multiple holder cohorts used the bounce to take profit.
We monitor these metrics and more on our Market Compass.
👉 Full report for this edition
$BTC is stuck beneath a wall of long-term holder supply around $83-$85k.
However, investors are acquiring coins here.
Should we break below this newly forming cluster, $75k is the level to watch.
After that a full retrace to $60k would be in play.
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2097716683976978596
This is the first $BTC bear market that never closed below the Realized Price.
This means that the average BTC holder stayed in profit this entire time.
More on the next levels, sell pressure and ETF flows in this week's Week On-chain 👇
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2102766576730812638
Only 9 of the top 50 altcoins have beaten $BTC since its all-time high.
ZEC leads by a wide margin, up 14x against Bitcoin.
HYPE, XMR and NEAR follow at 2–3x.
Short-term $BTC holders are back above the sell line.
Nevertheless, profit taking has stayed light.
More on this topic, as well as the levels to watch in this week's Week On-chain. 👇
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2102766576730812638
The four-year cycle playbook many relied on has not worked for this $BTC bear.
At this point, the last three were more than twice as deep and weeks from their lows.
This one is 30% below its high and rising.
A late drop to their depth looks less likely by the week.
Most altcoin holders are still sitting on losses.
The median coin has less than a quarter of its supply in profit.
Global market tops tend to occur once a majority of supply across the entire market is deep in profit.
That point is still a long way off.
$BTC has reclaimed every one of its long-term moving averages.
After around 300 days underneath them, this dynamic has now flipped.
Holding above them is what maintains a long-term uptrend.
$BTC remains in a bullish regime, according to various cost basis models and time frames.
Price is trading above both the True Market Mean and the short-term holder cost basis.
Holding above these levels is what historically defines a sustained uptrend.
Bitcoin touches $86k, up more than 10% from last Sunday's close.
Spot and perpetual buyers lead while leverage and profit-taking slowly rise with price.
ETF flows are the one reading still pointing the other way.
https://glassno.de/4hgcRdV
The current bid is strong enough that $BTC can be spent in profit without price immediately rolling over.
A sustained entity-adjusted SOPR above 1 is characteristic of a bull market.
A break back below 1 would signal that this demand is fading.
Altcoin leverage is still sitting below its risk threshold.
When the share of altcoin open interest comes within a few percent of Bitcoin's, the market is usually overheated.
That condition is not currently met, indicating a potential for alts to run further.
ICYMI: Listed companies added just 5.9K $BTC over three months, versus 89K in July 2025 alone.
With spot just below their $80.5K average cost basis, corporate buyers face modest unrealized losses while providing little fresh demand.
This week's analysis
$BTC has slipped below the bottom of the range.
That floor aligned with the True Market Mean and price needs to reclaim it for conditions to remain bullish.
If it does not, the short-term holder cost basis near $70k becomes increasingly likely.
Read more below 👇
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2100232147449811310
The ETF bid is gone again.
It came back in late August, ran for just over three weeks, and has already flipped to net redemptions.
The ETFs bought during and after the rally, but are not currently buying the $BTC dip.
Bitcoin is sitting at $78k, down around 1% on the week, and holding its range.
Spot and perpetual selling and ETF outflows weigh, but capital inflows and elevated profitability show a market absorbing pressure, not breaking down.
https://glassno.de/4Ae0qrW
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have climbed back toward break-even after an $18B drawdown.
Institutional cost basis is now a resistance level that price has to move through for further upside
https://x.com/glassnode/status/2097716683976978596