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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
#BTC trades at $71.3K under growing pressure. Sellers dominate spot, ETF outflows accelerate to $1.3B, and fresh capital has stalled. Structure has broken and momentum favours the downside near-term.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4nXysLe
The Week On-Chain 21, 2026
Stalling at the Threshold
#BTC pushes beyond $80K toward key resistance near $85K, with bulls in control. ETF demand builds and shorts persist, but overhead supply may cap upside without stronger spot follow-through.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin is consolidating within the $75k–$78k range, with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and True Market Mean converging near $78k, creating a top-heavy structure where a sustained hold above the True Market Mean is required to support a pre-bull market transition.
- Spot demand remains directionless despite improving price action, with Spot Volume Delta holding near neutral and BTC recently reclaiming the $110K region, suggesting buying interest is stabilising but conviction remains limited.
- Implied volatility continues to compress across the curve as realized volatility trends lower, reinforcing calmer short term conditions and supportive carry for volatility sellers.
Read the full Week On-Chain
#Bitcoin pulled back from $79K to $74K before rebounding toward $77K, with momentum and activity cooling. Despite softer sentiment, easing sell pressure hints at early signs of stabilization.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4nQerGs
Directional strategies posted their strongest month of the year as market-neutral books continued to quietly compound gains.
Across a survey of 400+ managers, every major digital asset sub-strategy delivered positive average returns in April — a level of alignment not seen in recent memory.
Read all the insights in the latest edition of Strategy Watch now live: glassno.de/3RqzSSn
Inside the new edition:
▪️ Every major crypto hedge fund sub-strategy finished positive in April
▪️ A deep dive into DeFi/Yield strategies, featuring a CIO’s perspective on where edge comes from as lending spreads compress and smart contract risk evolves
▪️ How 400+ managers are positioning for Q2, with cash levels climbing despite a more constructive market backdrop
▪️ The latest allocator activity across tokenized funds, BTC treasury strategies, and institutional on-chain yield vehicles.
Produced in collaboration with Crypto Insights Group.
Subscribe at glassno.de/4dzrjvW
BTC remains structurally resilient, but weakening spot demand, slowing ETF inflows, and increasingly crowded long positioning suggest upside momentum is cooling down.
Executive Summary
- BTC reclaimed True Market Mean at $78.3k but couldn't hold. History suggests weeks to months of consolidation needed before a bull transition.
- 30D SMA of Realized P/L Ratio jumped from 0.4 to 1.8 during the rally. Needs a sustained move above 2 to confirm real buy-side recovery.
- 30D cost basis at $78.2k flipped from support to resistance. The Feb-April cohort at $71.4k is the next support floor.
- Spot internals have weakened. Aggregate Spot CVD stays negative and Coinbase lags, pointing to softer US institutional demand.
- CME Futures OI keeps recovering with price, showing better institutional participation in derivatives.
- US Spot ETF inflows are slowing, leaving futures to drive positioning as spot demand fades.
- Options positioning stays defensive. Skew shows demand for downside hedges.
glassno.de/43lYUEO
$BTC
rolled over from a local peak above $82K into the mid-$76Ks, with spot demand, ETF flows, and speculative positioning weakening. Long-term holder strength remains a key source of support.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4nzZuIp
At $76.7k, more than 7.8M BTC are currently held at a loss.
The supply overhang from buyers near cycle highs remains substantial, a weight the market will need to absorb before any sustained move higher becomes structurally credible.
📉 glassno.de/4wrCX4y
BTC has recovered above $80K as ETF inflows, spot demand, and positioning improve. However, weaker capital inflows and heavy overhead supply near $86K keep conviction below prior bull phases.
Executive Summary
– US spot ETF inflows have turned firmly positive as BTC recovered from mid-$60Ks to low-$80Ks
Shallow drawdown – Relative Unrealized Loss peaked at 25% in February, now compressed to 8%; bear regime stays shallow if $60K holds
– Realized Cap 30D Net Position Change back to $2.8B/month, but well below the $10B+ seen in prior bull expansions
– Support at $76.9K (30-day cost basis), resistance at $86.9K (Nov-Feb accumulation range)
– Coinbase Spot Volume Delta flipped sharply positive over the last two weeks
– Hyperliquid traders steadily adding long exposure alongside rising prices
– Implied volatility falling across the curve, led by the front end, as realized vol trends lower
– Downside hedging demand fading, options structure more balanced around $80K
Read the full Report
glassno.de/4wo7d0c
At $82.1k, the unrealized loss in the market equals ~6.9% of the market cap.
📉 glassno.de/4aqd4Ik
New addresses appearing on the XRP network have collapsed from 18k/day in Dec 2024 to 2.7k/day today, an 85% decline.
Monthly active supply tells a similar story, dropping from 7.45B XRP/day to ~2B XRP/day over the same period.
The speculative wave that drove XRP's late-2024 surge has largely unwound at the network level.
📉http://glassno.de/4u8BDBW
As price spiked from $78k to $80k, the 2Y-3Y holder cohort, those who accumulated ahead of the ETF launch, ramped up profit-taking to over $209M/hr, realizing 60%-100% in gains.
Long-term holders are using this strength to exit into liquidity.
📉 glassno.de/4w9QfT2
🔄 Update:
With the spot price trading at $75.7K, the key on-chain price models are as follows:
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $85.0k
🔴 STH Cost Basis: $78.9K
🟢True Market Mean: $78.0K
---- Spot Price: $75.7K ----
🔵 Realized Price: $54.1K
📊 glassno.de/3XDy2xe
Aave V3 lost $4.0B in available liquidity in 29 hours after the Kelp DAO rsETH bridge exploit.
WETH utilization hit 100% in 1.4 hours, seven hours before the Protocol Guardian's freeze.
The contracts held throughout. The bridge did not.
Read the full report 👇
📰http://glassno.de/4ubtLzl
Bitcoin has retested February highs just below 80K and is now consolidating slightly below this level.
Read the full Options Weekly here
First time since Oct 10: Moderate Strategy flips to high confidence. Risk Index at 0, signaling a cleared risk landscape.
After 7 years of research and extensive backtesting, we’re introducing
Bitcoin Vector: a systematic framework for #BTC exposure, validated across market cycles. ▶ https://glassno.de/3QxhI0I
Hidden Signals Inside Crypto Option Premiums
Chart of The Week: Options Premiums👇
https://glassno.de/43AiflI
Funding rates have flipped decisively positive again, with traders increasingly paying a premium to maintain long exposure as $BTC consolidates near the mid-$70Ks.
The move marks a sharp reversal from April’s heavily short-biased positioning.
📈glassno.de/4wLHSNT
Since May 7, US Spot ETFs have recorded net outflows on nearly every trading day, a persistent institutional sell signal now running for more than two weeks.
This steady drip of outflow continues to add to the supply side without a visible demand offset.
📉http://glassno.de/43yFdJX
Which coins are currently exposed to quantum risk at rest?
In our latest research, we quantify Bitcoin’s exposed supply and separate exposure into two categories:
• Structural exposure: 1.92M BTC (9.6%) coins exposed by design
• Operational exposure: 4.12M BTC (20.6%) linked to wallet behavior, address reuse, and custody practices.
▷ The larger share is operational, suggesting that part of Bitcoin’s visible exposure may still be reduced through improved wallet and custody management.
▷ Exchange-related balances alone account for 1.63M BTC (8.1% of issued supply).
Read all findings 👉 glassno.de/4v2wdJ1
As IBIT options continue to grow, they offer new insight into institutional risk pricing, hedging activity, and positioning.
We just expanded coverage to IBIT options, bringing Glassnode's institutional-grade options market intelligence to the largest US spot Bitcoin ETF.
40+ new metrics available, including:
- OI & Volume
- ATM Implied Volatility
- Proprietary Skew metrics
- IV heatmaps
Use IBIT options data to:
→ Measure institutional sentiment
→ Compare TradFi and crypto-native positioning
→ Monitor hedging activity around macro events and drawdowns
→ Track volatility risk across tenors
📖 Read launch article glassno.de/4eWucJx
📊 Explore the new metrics glassno.de/499a0R5
Median SOPR across the top 500 coins just hit break-even (SOPR=1), the highest reading since BTC traded near all time highs. The move was met with heavy selling across the market.
The typical altcoin holder has been realizing losses since late 2024.
📊 https://glassno.de/4wBiDxG
The 7D-SMA of US Spot ETF Netflow dropped to -$88M/day, the largest outflow since mid-February.
February's outflows occurred into price weakness. This wave is selling into strength, with BTC trading near $80k.
Institutional participants were using the recovery over the recent days as an exit, not responding to fear.
📉glassno.de/4nrzXRD
US 10Y yields have rebounded toward 4.4%, a level that previously coincided with pressure on
$BTC.
This time, BTC has recovered above $80K despite the rates backdrop, suggesting the market is absorbing the macro headwind more effectively than earlier in the cycle.
📈https://glassno.de/4nqHY9i
#BTC climbed from the high-$77Ks to low-$82Ks as spot demand and futures activity strengthened. Momentum cooled near highs, while options markets continued pricing elevated uncertainty.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/48PCn6D
The Week On-Chain 18, 2026
Bulls Approach the Ceiling
#BTC pushes beyond $80K toward key resistance near $85K, with bulls in control. ETF demand builds and shorts persist, but overhead supply may cap upside without stronger spot follow-through.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean at $78.2k and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $79.1k, with holding above these levels suggesting a short-lived deep value phase and $85.2k as the next key resistance.
- Glassnode’s Moderate Strategy has re-entered allocation after BTC reclaimed ~$76K, capturing recent upside while maintaining a focus on downside protection.
- Front-end implied volatility has repriced higher following the breakout, while realized volatility lags, rebuilding a positive volatility risk premium.
Read the full Week On-Chain
#Bitcoin has entered a choppier, reactive phase following a sharp rally into the $80K region, with recent price action marked by a swift rejection from local highs and a pullback back toward the mid-$78K range.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4tRNbcU
The Week On-Chain 17, 2026
Trapped Below Market Mean
#BTC remains capped below the True Market Mean, with support at $65k–$70k. Spot selling is easing and flows stabilise, but demand is weak. Heavy short positioning leaves room for squeezes in a range-bound market.
Executive Summary
- Price has rejected at the True Market Mean (~$79k) and short-term holder cost basis, confirming resistance and reinforcing a mid-term downside bias.
- Spot selling pressure is easing, with volume delta recovering toward neutral and early signs of buyer re-engagement emerging.
- Perpetual futures positioning has flipped to a record net short bias, highlighting elevated hedging activity and squeeze potential.
Read the full Week On-Chain
#BTC shows renewed activity with rising transfer volume, but lower fees and subdued liquidity point to reduced speculation. Profitability metrics improve, easing bearish sentiment.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/48rLsCx
Whales on Hyperliquid have been longing the breakout of the range. Their conviction and long positioning have steadily increased over the past two months, signaling strong bullish sentiment among big perp players.
📊https://glassno.de/495ArH0
The Week On-Chain 16, 2026
Mean Reclaimed, Rally on Trial
#BTC reclaims $78k as spot demand and ETF inflows return. Shorts build with negative funding, creating squeeze potential. Yet elevated realized profits and soft volatility signal caution, with upside near $80k facing resistance.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean at $78.1k for the first time since mid-January, a significant mean reversion, with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $80.1k now the immediate resistance ceiling.
- ETF flows have turned modestly positive again, with the 7-day moving average shifting back into inflow territory, signaling a tentative return of institutional demand after a prolonged period of outflows.
- Spot demand is showing early signs of recovery, with cumulative volume delta flipping higher and indicating renewed buyer aggression, particularly across offshore venues.
- Gamma and flow frame the setup: upside faces mechanical resistance near 80K, while a move back toward 75K carries higher downside acceleration risk.
Read the full Week On-Chain