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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
The Week On-Chain 28, 2024
Following several months of sideways price action, Bitcoin has experienced its deepest correction since late 2022, trading below the 200DMA, and putting a significant number of Short-Term Holders into an unrealized loss.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has recorded its deepest drawdown for the current cycle, trading more than -26% below the ATH. Despite this, the drawdown remains historically shallow relative to past cycles.
- This price contraction has put a significant volume of Short-Term Holder Supply into an unrealized loss, with over 2.8M BTC now underwater based on their on-chain acquisition price.
- Whilst financial pressure is elevated amongst Short-Term Holders, the magnitude of losses locked in has remained relatively subdued in comparison to the market size.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Assessing the ratio between the Bitcoin unrealized profit/loss per coin, we can see that the magnitude of paper gains held is 8.2x larger than paper losses.
Only 18% of trading days have recorded a larger relative value, all of which are within Euphoric bull market regimes.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/4cOHEej
The Week On-Chain 27, 2024
The Bitcoin market is in an interesting spot, with the average coin still up 2x, whilst most Short-Term Holders are underwater. A multitude of volatility measures are also heavily compressed, suggesting a larger move is on the horizon.
Executive Summary
- Despite Bitcoin prices trading sideways to down, a significant proportion of the market remains in profit, with Short-Term Holders carrying the majority of losses.
- Using a combination of on-chain pricing models and technical indicators, we define and explore the a set of potential scenarios for the market moving forwards.
- Volatility continues to be historically compressed, which suggests a degree of both investor apathy, but also suggests an under-indexing for heightened volatility ahead.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 26, 2024
As Bitcoin struggles to reclaim the recent ATH, we investigate the Long and Short-Term cohorts contribution to the supply and demand side. We also leverage the new breakdown metrics to evaluate the spending behavior and market influence of differing subsets of Long-Term investors.
Executive Summary
- The market has effectively traded sideways since the $73k all-time-high which was set in March. By our estimates, demand momentum has turned negative since early May.
- We analyse the cost-basis of short-term investors as a method to inspect capital flows into the market.
- Looking at the spending behaviour of long-term holders, it can be seen that although the spent volume by these players constitutes only 4%-8% of the total volume, the profits realized from this spending typically account for 30%-40% of cumulative profits realized over bull markets.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 25, 2025
Despite choppy price action, the unrealized profit of Bitcoin investors remains constructive. However, volumes across all market facets are declining markedly as an equilibrium between demand and sell-side forces is established.
Executive Summary
- Despite chaotic price action, investor profitability remains robust, with the average coin holding an unrealized profit of around 120%.
- The demand side has been sufficient to absorb sell-side pressure and HODLer divestment but insufficient to promote further upward growth.
- The cash-and-carry trade continues, with a particular uptick by institutional traders, reinforcing an expectation of range-bound trading for the time being.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The aggregated balance of all major labelled entities is estimated to be ~4.23M, which accounts for 27% of the overall adjusted circulating supply (which is the total supply minus coins that have remained dormant for more than seven years).
🟡 US Spot ETF = 862k BTC
🔴 Mt. Gox Trustee = 141k BTC
🔵 US Government = 207k BTC
🟠 All Exchanges = 2.3M BTC
🟢 Miners (Exc. Patoshi) = 706k BTC
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3RnjM93
In the newest release from our checklist series, we focus on recognizing important stages of bull markets—ideal for optimizing exit strategies. Utilizing our innovative suite of on-chain metrics, this checklist equips traders with the tools necessary to navigate through and capitalize on euphoric market phases.
To learn more, download the checklist here: https://glassno.de/4caTI9i
Whilst both inflowing liquidity and appetite for speculation have slowed down over the last 2 months, the reclamation of the $68k level has driven a majority of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder cohort back into holding an unrealized profit.
This indicates that despite recent sideways choppy price action, the majority of recent buyers now have a cost basis which is more favourable and below the current spot price.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3VbNYW0
To highlight periods of particularly strong Bitcoin price performance, we can count the number of trading days within a 90d window where the performance across Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly timeframes exceeds +20%.
As of current, only 5 of the last 90 days have reached this threshold so far.
In prior cycles, this count reached between 18 and 26-days, which suggests the current market may be somewhat more measured relative to historical bull markets.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇
https://glassno.de/3wS4sKE
We are pleased to announce that Glassnode is an official partner of TOKENFUTURE 2024, Europe’s premier conference about tokenization.
Join us on June 18 in Frankfurt to engage with industry leaders from VanEck, Sygnum, Galaxy, Coinbase Asset Management, and many more. We look forward to seeing you there.
Visit: http://www.tokenfuture.io/
The Week On-Chain 22, 2024
Residing just shy of the ATH, Bitcoin continues to consolidate, with long-term investors beginning to re-accumulate coins for the first time since Dec 2023. Alongside this, a historic first tranche of Ethereum spot ETFs have been approved in the US, seeing a +20% surge in the ETH price.
Executive Summary
- Both Ethereum and Bitcoin markets are showing relative strength after a lengthy post-ATH consolidation, although prices have remained choppy and sideways since March.
- The SEC has surprised the market with the approval of the Ethereum Spot ETFs, resulting in a +20% rally in the ETH price.
- Bitcoin US Spot ETFs netflows have once again turned positive after four weeks of net outflows, suggesting a return of TradFi demand.
- Long-Term Holder spending pressure has cooled off significantly, with investors back to accumulation patterns, suggesting volatility is required to motivate the next wave.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
In the latest addition to our checklist series, we aim to help traders identify key market trends and momentum shifts using on-chain data. By analyzing various metrics across different timeframes, we show when the market is gaining strength or beginning to falter.
What's inside?
- How to use transaction volume and capital flow to gauge market expansion.
- Why demand absorption is crucial for understanding market strength.
- What unrealized profits can tell you about positive momentum.
- When wealth transfer between holders reveals market phases.
To learn more, download the checklist here: https://glassno.de/3yEtOMw
The Week On-Chain 21, 2024
Bitcoin markets have experienced a cool down after several months of intense distribution pressure. Whilst capital inflows remain modest, the lightening of sell-side, and compression of volatility suggest a bigger move could be on the horizon.
Executive Summary
- Following a significant period of distribution into the ATH, a period of cooling down and consolidation has been underway, and sell-side pressure is winding back markedly.
- Alongside lighter sell-side activity, capital inflows remain relatively modest, although remain in a profit dominated regime and have been sufficient to stimulate local price action.
- Various measures of volatility have compressed over the course of this correction, which usually precede a larger scale market move, since equilibrium has been reached on-chain.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
This month's Finance Bridge examines Bitcoin's post-halving sell-off and debates around Ethereum's staking policies. The analysis highlights ETF inflows, market momentum indicators, and speculative trends. A must-read read for finance professionals and institutional investors.
Read the full article here: https://glassno.de/4bfxEtT
Amidst the hype and market rally surrounding approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs, the unrealized profit of Bitcoin holders expanded considerably faster than that of Ethereum investors.
As a result, the Bitcoin NUPL metric crossed 0.5 and entered the euphoria phase three months before the equivalent metric for Ethereum.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇
https://glassno.de/3y6TJMT
Introducing the guide to Digital Assets: Insights and Market Trends by CME Group and Glassnode
The report provides institutional investors with an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum fundamentals, capital flows, market cycles, derivatives markets, and institutional adoption.
Key takeaways:
- Major Asset Dominance: Bitcoin's market cap increased by $1.13 trillion (+370%) since November 2022, and Ethereum's valuation rose by $354 billion (+267%).
- Settlement Volume: Bitcoin's daily on-chain volume is around $46.4 billion, comparable to Visa and Mastercard, with filtered volumes at $6.5 billion.
- Bull Market Correction: Bitcoin's deepest correction since November 2022 was -20.3%.
- ETH/BTC Ratio: The declining ratio indicates shifting market dynamics, with more institutional buy-side pressure on Bitcoin.
- CME Futures Dominance: CME futures represent over 80% of the calendar futures market for Bitcoin and 53% for Ethereum.
For the full analysis, download the guide here: https://glassno.de/3XPCQkx
Moving towards technical indicators, we can use the widely used Mayer Multiple metric, which assesses the ratio between Bitcoin price and its 200DMA.
The 200DMA is often used as a simple indicator for assessing bullish or bearish momentum, making any breaks above or below a key market pivot point.
The 200DMA currently resides at a value of $58k, once again providing confluence with on–chain price models.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/4cOHEej
Glassnode's Bitcoin Sharpe Signal Short is designed to identify prime shorting opportunities with high conviction. It can be used for direct short positions on Bitcoin and to reduce long-only exposure, minimizing downside risk during high-risk periods.
Benefits:
- High-Confidence Short Opportunities: Identify market downturns using our machine-learning model and on-chain data.
- Risk Management for Long-Only Investors: Effectively manage Bitcoin's high volatility and avoid significant drawdowns.
- Strategic Hedging: Suitable for both direct short positions and reducing long-only exposure.
For the full analysis, read our insights article: https://glassno.de/3ztvNUk
Despite healthy investor profitability, the magnitude of volume being processed and transferred on the Bitcoin Network following the ATH has declined drastically.
This underscores a reduced appetite for speculation and heightened indecision in the market.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3RCgSxp
Coinbase as an entity holds a vast fraction of both aggregate exchange balances, as well the US Spot ETF balances via its custody service.
The Coinbase Exchange and Coinbase Custody entities currently hold an estimated 270k and 569k BTC respectively.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3RnjM93
The Week On-Chain 24, 2024
Despite impressive US ETF inflows, a market-neutral Cash-and-Carry trade appears to be subduing buy-side pressure, requiring non-arbitrage demand to further stimulate price action. Alongside this, we explore the divergence between declining active addresses and surging transaction counts.
Executive Summary
- In the advent of the Runes protocol, a counterintuitive divergence has formed between declining active addresses and increasing transaction counts.
- Major labelled entities now hold a staggering ~4.23M BTC, accounting for over 27% of the adjusted supply, with US Spot ETFs now commanding a balance of 862k BTC.
- The Cash-and-Carry trade structure appears to be a meaningful source of ETF inflow demand, with the ETFs being utilized as the instrument for obtaining the long spot exposure, whilst an increasingly large net short position for Bitcoin accrues in the CME Group futures market.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Assessing for Bitcoin Long-Term Holders, we can see that the total volume of LTH Supply held in loss is negligible, with only 4.9k BTC (0.03% of LTH Supply) acquired above the spot price.
Given new ATHs were only set in March (less than 155-days ago), these LTH coins in loss are the small few holders who bought the 2021 cycle top, and have held ever since.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇
glassno.de/3VbNYW0
The Week On-Chain 23, 2024
After months of apathy and sideways price action, the first glimmers of speculative activity is beginning to re-appear. The market responded to a false alarm regarding the distribution of Mt.Gox supply, however this offers a lens into how we can consider these events using onchain data.
Executive Summary
- The majority of Bitcoin investors are holding unrealized profits, and the first signs of speculation appetite is returning to the market after two months of sideways trading.
- The Short-Term Holder cohort are shouldering the vast majority of market losses, a condition typically observed during bull market corrections from new ATHs.
- Both Long and Short-Term Holders have experienced a reset in their Sell-Side Risk ratio, suggesting a new equilibrium has been found. This indicates that the market is ready to move, and volatility expectations for the near future should be heightened.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
As the Bitcoin market breaks towards a new ATH and price discovery, it enters the Euphoria phase, where the supply in profit starts to fluctuate around the 90% level for the next 6-12 months.
The current euphoria phase is relatively young but has been active for around 2.5 months, with 93.4% of supply held in profit as of current.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇
https://glassno.de/3wS4sKE
After recording the deepest correction on a closing basis since the FTX lows (-20.3%), Bitcoin has recovered back towards the ATH, reaching $71k on 20-May.
From a comparative point of view, the drawdowns pattern across the 2023-24 uptrend appears to be remarkably similar to the 2015-17 bull market.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3wS4sKE
The Bitcoin Long-Term Holder (LTH) Binary Spending Indicator is a tool we can use to profile and visualize the intensity of HODLer distribution pressure. We note a significant and sustained decline in LTH Supply into the $73k ATH in March.
As of the last few weeks however, this distribution pressure has eased off markedly, giving the bulls more breathing room, and less resistance overall.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3UQ7NBV
We’re launching the first video walkthrough for our cutting-edge 28 breakdown metrics for Bitcoin and Ethereum. See how professional and institutional traders can utilize these new metrics for unprecedented depth and learn to use them in practice, for example, to identify local market bottoms. https://glassno.de/44U4Ncz
Curious to learn more? Read our insights article for the full analysis: https://glassno.de/3WWWzOV
In the latest Week On-Chain, we defined a framework to detect Seller Exhaustion across multiple timeframes, utilizing a combination of our Breakdown profitability metrics.
Discover more on their use case and construction in the Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3UJpvaa
The Week On-Chain 20, 2024
Using our new Breakdown Metrics, we are now able to discretely isolate points of severe unrealized loss, and investor capitulation. In this article, we introduce a new framework to assess seller exhaustion across multiple timeframes and investor cohorts.
Executive Summary
- During a Bull Market regime, long-term investors are generally highly profitable. Therefore, the dominant source of realized loss originates from the Short-Term Holder cohort, which can provide information on inflection points during sell-off events.
- Given that market inflection points unfold from the inside-out, we produce a framework using our newly released Breakdown by Age metrics to profile seller exhaustion across day trader and weekly-monthly investor cohorts.
- Within this framework, we utilize onchain metrics to assess both the unrealized and realized losses of the targeted investor classes as a gauge for their response to market downturns.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Ethereum staking grew by 9% in Q1 following the Dencun upgrade and a rise in ETH prices. Innovations like Liquid Staking and the Eigenlayer Airdrop are influencing participation. As new staking technologies reshape the Ethereum ecosystem, what impact will these developments have on Ethereum’s market?
Discover more in our latest 'Spotlights' series: 👇
https://glassno.de/3QFNJki