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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
Daily active addresses on Ethereum and leading L2s have increased by 127% this year. This metric measures the number of distinct addresses interacting with the chain, indicating user base growth.
More insights from our report with Coinbase Institutional → https://glassno.de/4ddXPSn
The Week On-Chain 31, 2024
After more than a decade of legal process, the long awaited creditor distribution of the Bitcoin recovered from the Mt.Gox exchange collapse is underway. From a psychological perspective, this represents the final chapter in what has been a major market overhang over the industry since 2013.
Executive Summary
- After a prolonged legal process, Mt.Gox creditors are finally receiving Bitcoin recovered from the exchange hack. Currently, 59k of the 142k BTC has been distributed via Kraken and Bitstamp.
- Wealth held by new investors is declining, well below levels seen at macro market tops, indicating a shift back towards HODLing.
- The distribution pressure by the LTH cohort remains relatively light, and is in decline. Alongside this, Long-term investors currently hold 45% of the network wealth, which is relatively elevated compared to levels seen near macro cycle topping events.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Bitcoin has historically exhibited exponential gains during bull cycles, but each cycle has also seen numerous large drawdowns. The current cycle has seen:
- Eight drawdowns between 5%-20%
- Two drawdowns between 20%-30%
- No drawdowns greater than 30%
Discover more insights from our recent Q3 report with Coinbase Institutional → https://glassno.de/4ddXPSn
The Week On-Chain 30, 2024
Bitcoin prices have rebounded strongly, rallying over $68k and catalyzing an uptick in perpetual futures activity. The appreciation in price has also provided much-needed relief for the Short-Term Holder cohort, with 75% of their coins now held in profit.
Executive Summary
- Binance, Bybit and OKX remain the industry leaders for perpetual swap markets, accounting for around 84% of the total open interest.
- We introduce a novel model to track the sensitivity of leverage and Open Interest in Futures markets relative to changes in the spot Bitcoin price.
- Price has climbed back above the Short-Term Holder cost basis, which has provided much-needed relief for new investors, with over 75% of their supply moving back into profit.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
CME Group futures now represent over 83% of the calendar futures market for Bitcoin and 65% for Ethereum, highlighting CME's growing influence in institutional trading.
Discover more insights from our report with CME Group → https://glassno.de/3XPCQkx
The Week On-Chain 29, 2024
The Bitcoin market recently absorbed over 48k BTC in sell-side sourced from the German Government. With Mt Gox distributions also on the horizon, we examine these major sell-side forces, as well as the role ETFs have on price action.
Executive Summary
- Large labelled entities currently hold approximately 4.9M BTC, which is equivalent to 25% of the circulating supply. Amongst these entities, centralized exchanges and ETF custodians account for the largest portion.
- Following the complete exhaustion of BTC sell-side by the German Government, there appears to be near-term sell-side relief, as well as renewed inflows of demand to support the market.
- Market profitability remains remarkably robust, with the majority of the coin supply still held at a favourable cost basis, and below the current spot price.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Since the launch of the Runes protocol on April 20, 2024, we've observed a significant surge in transactions, largely displacing BRC-20 tokens, Ordinals, and Inscriptions. As of current, Runes-related TXs account for an impressive 66% of total daily TXs.
Explore our latest Runes metrics to gain deeper insights into this trend 👇
https://glassno.de/3xTL6oY
The Week On-Chain 28, 2024
Following several months of sideways price action, Bitcoin has experienced its deepest correction since late 2022, trading below the 200DMA, and putting a significant number of Short-Term Holders into an unrealized loss.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has recorded its deepest drawdown for the current cycle, trading more than -26% below the ATH. Despite this, the drawdown remains historically shallow relative to past cycles.
- This price contraction has put a significant volume of Short-Term Holder Supply into an unrealized loss, with over 2.8M BTC now underwater based on their on-chain acquisition price.
- Whilst financial pressure is elevated amongst Short-Term Holders, the magnitude of losses locked in has remained relatively subdued in comparison to the market size.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Assessing the ratio between the Bitcoin unrealized profit/loss per coin, we can see that the magnitude of paper gains held is 8.2x larger than paper losses.
Only 18% of trading days have recorded a larger relative value, all of which are within Euphoric bull market regimes.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/4cOHEej
The Week On-Chain 27, 2024
The Bitcoin market is in an interesting spot, with the average coin still up 2x, whilst most Short-Term Holders are underwater. A multitude of volatility measures are also heavily compressed, suggesting a larger move is on the horizon.
Executive Summary
- Despite Bitcoin prices trading sideways to down, a significant proportion of the market remains in profit, with Short-Term Holders carrying the majority of losses.
- Using a combination of on-chain pricing models and technical indicators, we define and explore the a set of potential scenarios for the market moving forwards.
- Volatility continues to be historically compressed, which suggests a degree of both investor apathy, but also suggests an under-indexing for heightened volatility ahead.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 26, 2024
As Bitcoin struggles to reclaim the recent ATH, we investigate the Long and Short-Term cohorts contribution to the supply and demand side. We also leverage the new breakdown metrics to evaluate the spending behavior and market influence of differing subsets of Long-Term investors.
Executive Summary
- The market has effectively traded sideways since the $73k all-time-high which was set in March. By our estimates, demand momentum has turned negative since early May.
- We analyse the cost-basis of short-term investors as a method to inspect capital flows into the market.
- Looking at the spending behaviour of long-term holders, it can be seen that although the spent volume by these players constitutes only 4%-8% of the total volume, the profits realized from this spending typically account for 30%-40% of cumulative profits realized over bull markets.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 25, 2025
Despite choppy price action, the unrealized profit of Bitcoin investors remains constructive. However, volumes across all market facets are declining markedly as an equilibrium between demand and sell-side forces is established.
Executive Summary
- Despite chaotic price action, investor profitability remains robust, with the average coin holding an unrealized profit of around 120%.
- The demand side has been sufficient to absorb sell-side pressure and HODLer divestment but insufficient to promote further upward growth.
- The cash-and-carry trade continues, with a particular uptick by institutional traders, reinforcing an expectation of range-bound trading for the time being.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The aggregated balance of all major labelled entities is estimated to be ~4.23M, which accounts for 27% of the overall adjusted circulating supply (which is the total supply minus coins that have remained dormant for more than seven years).
🟡 US Spot ETF = 862k BTC
🔴 Mt. Gox Trustee = 141k BTC
🔵 US Government = 207k BTC
🟠 All Exchanges = 2.3M BTC
🟢 Miners (Exc. Patoshi) = 706k BTC
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3RnjM93
In the newest release from our checklist series, we focus on recognizing important stages of bull markets—ideal for optimizing exit strategies. Utilizing our innovative suite of on-chain metrics, this checklist equips traders with the tools necessary to navigate through and capitalize on euphoric market phases.
To learn more, download the checklist here: https://glassno.de/4caTI9i
Whilst both inflowing liquidity and appetite for speculation have slowed down over the last 2 months, the reclamation of the $68k level has driven a majority of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder cohort back into holding an unrealized profit.
This indicates that despite recent sideways choppy price action, the majority of recent buyers now have a cost basis which is more favourable and below the current spot price.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3VbNYW0
Bitcoin Daily Active Entities, measured as clusters of addresses controlled by the same entity, fell 16% in Q2 2024. This metric helps gauge user adoption and network activity.
More insights from our report with Coinbase Institutional → https://glassno.de/4ddXPSn
Bitcoin Spot ETF Balances now exceed $50B in AUM since their January 2024 launch, marking the most successful ETF debut in history. This chart shows the daily balances of the top US-traded Bitcoin ETFs.
More insights from our report with Coinbase Institutional → https://glassno.de/4ddXPSn
Introducing the Q3 Guide to Crypto Markets by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode.
This third installment highlights the ongoing bull market, ETF impact, and surge in on-chain activity.
Key points from the 65-page guide:
- Bull Market Dynamics: Since November 2022, Bitcoin prices have quadrupled. This cycle had drawdowns of 5%-30%, with none exceeding 30%, a rarity in past cycles.
- ETF Influence: Spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched in January 2024, amassed $50B in AUM within six months, boosting crypto interest and trading volumes. ETF inflows have outpaced new Bitcoin issuance, indicating strong demand.
- On-chain Growth: On-chain activity is up, with daily active addresses on Ethereum and Layer 2 solutions increasing by 127% in 2024. Despite a 58% drop in user fees post-Ethereum's Dencun upgrade in March 2024, transactions rose by 59%, showing real utility.
Download the guide here: https://glassno.de/4ddXPSn
We have now made the Spot Bitcoin ETF metrics accessible to all our users. View the latest ETF balances and flows from VanEck, BlackRock, Fidelity, and others in near real-time.
For more information, go to Glassnode Studio: https://glassno.de/3y3ER1Y
Bitcoin currently sees around $46.4 billion in on-chain volume daily, comparable to traditional payment processors like Visa and Mastercard. Filtered economical transfer volumes are closer to $6.5 billion per day.
Discover more insights from our report with CME Group → https://glassno.de/3XPCQkx
The Bitcoin market experienced around 18 months of steady price appreciation after the collapse of FTX, followed by three months of range-bound price action after the $73k ETF high.
Between May and July, the market experienced its deepest cycle correction, recording a drawdown exceeding -26% from the ATH.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇 https://glassno.de/3zBT1b6
Bitcoin's market cap increased by $1.13 trillion (+370%) since November 2022, and Ethereum's valuation rose by $354 billion (+267%) over the same period.
Discover more insights from our report with CME Group → https://glassno.de/3XPCQkx
Introducing the guide to Digital Assets: Insights and Market Trends by CME Group and Glassnode
The report provides institutional investors with an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum fundamentals, capital flows, market cycles, derivatives markets, and institutional adoption.
Key takeaways:
- Major Asset Dominance: Bitcoin's market cap increased by $1.13 trillion (+370%) since November 2022, and Ethereum's valuation rose by $354 billion (+267%).
- Settlement Volume: Bitcoin's daily on-chain volume is around $46.4 billion, comparable to Visa and Mastercard, with filtered volumes at $6.5 billion.
- Bull Market Correction: Bitcoin's deepest correction since November 2022 was -20.3%.
- ETH/BTC Ratio: The declining ratio indicates shifting market dynamics, with more institutional buy-side pressure on Bitcoin.
- CME Futures Dominance: CME futures represent over 80% of the calendar futures market for Bitcoin and 53% for Ethereum.
For the full analysis, download the guide here: https://glassno.de/3XPCQkx
Moving towards technical indicators, we can use the widely used Mayer Multiple metric, which assesses the ratio between Bitcoin price and its 200DMA.
The 200DMA is often used as a simple indicator for assessing bullish or bearish momentum, making any breaks above or below a key market pivot point.
The 200DMA currently resides at a value of $58k, once again providing confluence with on–chain price models.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/4cOHEej
Glassnode's Bitcoin Sharpe Signal Short is designed to identify prime shorting opportunities with high conviction. It can be used for direct short positions on Bitcoin and to reduce long-only exposure, minimizing downside risk during high-risk periods.
Benefits:
- High-Confidence Short Opportunities: Identify market downturns using our machine-learning model and on-chain data.
- Risk Management for Long-Only Investors: Effectively manage Bitcoin's high volatility and avoid significant drawdowns.
- Strategic Hedging: Suitable for both direct short positions and reducing long-only exposure.
For the full analysis, read our insights article: https://glassno.de/3ztvNUk
Despite healthy investor profitability, the magnitude of volume being processed and transferred on the Bitcoin Network following the ATH has declined drastically.
This underscores a reduced appetite for speculation and heightened indecision in the market.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3RCgSxp
Coinbase as an entity holds a vast fraction of both aggregate exchange balances, as well the US Spot ETF balances via its custody service.
The Coinbase Exchange and Coinbase Custody entities currently hold an estimated 270k and 569k BTC respectively.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3RnjM93
The Week On-Chain 24, 2024
Despite impressive US ETF inflows, a market-neutral Cash-and-Carry trade appears to be subduing buy-side pressure, requiring non-arbitrage demand to further stimulate price action. Alongside this, we explore the divergence between declining active addresses and surging transaction counts.
Executive Summary
- In the advent of the Runes protocol, a counterintuitive divergence has formed between declining active addresses and increasing transaction counts.
- Major labelled entities now hold a staggering ~4.23M BTC, accounting for over 27% of the adjusted supply, with US Spot ETFs now commanding a balance of 862k BTC.
- The Cash-and-Carry trade structure appears to be a meaningful source of ETF inflow demand, with the ETFs being utilized as the instrument for obtaining the long spot exposure, whilst an increasingly large net short position for Bitcoin accrues in the CME Group futures market.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Assessing for Bitcoin Long-Term Holders, we can see that the total volume of LTH Supply held in loss is negligible, with only 4.9k BTC (0.03% of LTH Supply) acquired above the spot price.
Given new ATHs were only set in March (less than 155-days ago), these LTH coins in loss are the small few holders who bought the 2021 cycle top, and have held ever since.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇
glassno.de/3VbNYW0
The Week On-Chain 23, 2024
After months of apathy and sideways price action, the first glimmers of speculative activity is beginning to re-appear. The market responded to a false alarm regarding the distribution of Mt.Gox supply, however this offers a lens into how we can consider these events using onchain data.
Executive Summary
- The majority of Bitcoin investors are holding unrealized profits, and the first signs of speculation appetite is returning to the market after two months of sideways trading.
- The Short-Term Holder cohort are shouldering the vast majority of market losses, a condition typically observed during bull market corrections from new ATHs.
- Both Long and Short-Term Holders have experienced a reset in their Sell-Side Risk ratio, suggesting a new equilibrium has been found. This indicates that the market is ready to move, and volatility expectations for the near future should be heightened.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.