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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
Bitcoin Spending Power Law: A New Predictable Framework
Glassnode's new research reveals how Bitcoin holder behavior follows a power-law decay, offering a groundbreaking perspective on coin age and spending probabilities.
Executive Summary
- Spending probability drops by a factor of 10 for every tenfold increase in coin age, creating a measurable and predictable pattern.
- Coins held for over 3-4 years rarely move, signaling either strong conviction or potential loss.
- A simple heuristic predicts with 98% accuracy that coins younger than 7 days will move, providing actionable short-term insights.
This framework enables investors to segment holders into behavior-driven cohorts and track market sentiment with greater precision.
Read more in the full research report here.
📊 Bitcoin Market Cycle Update
Current ROI:
Here's how #Bitcoin’s ROI since cycle low compares to the last two cycles so far:
🔸 2015-2018: 5.90x
🔸 2018-2022: 10.47x
🔸 2022+ (current): 5.98x
The current cycle is 26.94% below the average ROI of the last two cycles (8.18x), highlighting the challenges of sustaining exponential growth as liquidity needs increase.
Bull Market Volatility:
Here’s how this bull market’s corrections compare to the previous cycles:
Average Drawdowns:
🔹 2022+: -7.68%
🔹 Overall: -16.24%
Max Drawdowns:
🔹 2022+: -26.25%
🔹 Overall: -71.15% (2011-2013)
This cycle stands out as the least volatile, with the mildest corrections compared to its predecessors.
Bitcoin’s evolution continues, balancing reduced volatility with steady growth as the market matures and becomes more institutionalized. 📈
The Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) metric reveals where Bitcoin supply has clustered at key price levels. Recent data shows $99,559 as the largest accumulation zone below $100K (a total of 125K BTC), while $96K–$98K, with 120K BTC accumulated, shapes up as a potential short-term support level.
CBD also highlights $101,669 (44K BTC) as a level to watch. While $99,559 shows stronger accumulation, it may act more as an area of interest than immediate resistance, depending on how market momentum evolves.
Typically exclusive to Professional plan users, the Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap is now accessible to Advanced plan users until the end of 2024. Explore it here: https://glassno.de/4ikd3ZA
5808 days since Satoshi Nakamoto mined Block 1, the price for a single Bitcoin has reached $100K. What a journey it has been!
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While #Bitcoin consolidates with temporary dips to the lower end of the $90K range, SOPR Momentum - a key measure of how the market responds to profit and loss pressures - continues to accelerate, indicating positive sentiment.
See the live chart here: https://glassno.de/3ZnUpqW
#BTC's SOPR Momentum assesses the average profit and loss magnitude of daily transactions, excluding internal transfers and self-spends. Using a fast/slow momentum crossover strategy, it identifies periods of heightened profit-taking relative to a longer-term baseline.
SOPR Momentum is a key component of #Bitcoin’s On-Chain Momentum Signal - Glassnode's proprietary framework to form data-driven views on market trends as they unfold. You can view its current status here: https://glassno.de/3ZmRW04
➡️Discover the other metrics in this signal and how they can guide market decisions: https://glassno.de/41cENJv
After hitting an all-time high at $99.4K, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $92K and $98K this past week.
Daily realized profits to exchanges have cooled off significantly, now at $277M/day. This represents a 42% drop from the peak of $481M/day on Nov 16.
This sharp decline signals reduced profit-taking activity, suggesting the market has entered a consolidation phase.
See the chart: https://glassno.de/49jwGg8
During the recent rally to $99.4K, Long-Term Holders’ Net Position Change dropped to -366K BTC/month, marking the highest selling pressure since April 2024. This signals significant profit-taking by LTHs, but it's important to examine which sub-groups within LTHs contributed to this.
Looking closer, 6m-12m holders led the activity, spending 25.6K BTC/day (7D-MA). Their cost basis, estimated at $57.9K (71% below market price), explains the incentive to capitalize on the rally. This aligns with natural behavior for intra-cycle holders like ETF-related buyers from earlier this year.
Key takeaway: Most selling pressure came from buyers in the $50K–$60K range, indicating intra-cycle LTHs drove profit-taking. There was minimal sell-off by OG long-term holders, whose behavior typically signals deeper shifts in market sentiment.
BTC Long-Term Holder Net Position Change chart: https://t.co/hr64gBGUCd
BTC Spent Volume in Profit by Age chart: glassno.de/3CF66lA
BTC SOPR by Age chart: glassno.de/3ATrqmP
We're excited to launch our Black Friday offer! Until Cyber Monday, you can enjoy 30% off the Glassnode Advanced Annual Subscription. Gain deeper insights into Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, TRON, and hundreds of ERC-20 tokens, including DOGE and PEPE. Offer ends 3rd December. Claim your discount here: https://glassno.de/3AX9bgb
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The Week On-Chain 46, 2024
Bitcoin’s rally to a new ATH is driven by strong spot demand and institutional inflows, with over 95% of supply in profit. This article explores on-chain indicators, highlighting robust spot buying momentum, rising ETF AUM, futures premiums, and the potential for sustained gains in this ATH phase.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin’s rally to a new ATH highlights strong demand in spot markets over perpetual futures.
- Institutional inflows surged post-U.S. elections, driven by spot ETFs and CME futures as cash-and-carry strategies gain traction.
- The ATH phase sees over 95% of supply in profit, signaling unique market dynamics.
- On-chain cost basis bands reveal strong demand as price nears key levels.
- Realized profits are up, but remain below previous ATH peaks, suggesting potential for further growth.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 45, 2024
In the wake of the highly anticipated US Presidential Election, Bitcoin has broken to a new ATH of $75.4k. Under the surface, volatility continues to brew across option markets while on-chain capital inflows continue to expand, suggesting a persistent inflow of new demand.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken to a new ATH of $75.4k, sparked by the high likelihood of President Trump winning the US election.
- Capital inflows into the Bitcoin asset continue to grow, suggesting a persistent inflow of new demand.
- Profit-taking activities have seen a non-trivial increase, while losses realized remain negligible. However, both values are relatively modest compared to volumes seen around market extremes.
- Options markets are pricing in higher volatility expectations as investors hedge their positions in both directions.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 43, 2024
The Bitcoin spot price has continued to march higher, trading up to $69k, only 6.8% below the ATH. The price uptick has broken through several critical levels using technical and on-chain inputs. This is one of the first signs of positive price momentum since late June.
Executive Summary
- The Bitcoin spot price has briefly rallied above $69k after successfully clearing several significant technical and on-chain pricing levels.
- From an On-chain perspective, all sub-age-groups within the Short-Term Holder cohort now hold an unrealized profit, likely a tailwind for market sentiment.
- However, speculation in futures markets is increasing, with open interest surging to new ATHs and a non-trivial portion attributed to the cash and carry basis trade.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Join us on October 22nd at 4 PM EST for an exclusive webinar featuring Glassnode Analyst James Check and Coinbase Institutional Head of Research David Duong.
In this session, James and David will provide a comprehensive analysis from the latest Guide to Crypto Markets, equipping you with actionable insights to navigate the current market environment. Key topics will include:
1. The growth of Layer 2s and how it impacts ether and the Ethereum ecosystem.
2. The rise in stablecoin volume and what it signals for the broader crypto market.
3. What to watch for ahead of, and after, the US election.
Don’t miss this opportunity to gain a holistic view of the evolving digital asset landscape. Seats are limited—secure your spot today: https://glassno.de/4f6rFJC
The Week On-Chain 42, 2024
A notable divergence between supply and demand is emerging, with the market being range-bound for over seven months. With low volumes across on-chain and futures markets and a HODLer-dominated environment, the scene is set for heightened volatility in the near future.
Executive Summary
- The demand side of the market has declined notably since the March ATH, with investor attention thinning as the market chops sideways within this price range.
- On the supply side, available coins are also constricting, with several measures of ‘active supply’ compressing to relatively low levels.
- Historically, tightness in the Bitcoin supply side has been a precursor for a regime of heightened volatility.
- It often describes an equilibrium being reached between the wealth held by new demand and existing HODLers, which tends not to last for very long.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 41, 2024
Following a 10% price correction, the Bitcoin market has rebounded back to the $63k level, in an attempt to reclaim the critical Short-Term Holder cost-basis.
Executive Summary
- Bull Market Drawdowns remain relatively shallow but in line with historical bull market uptrends. This highlights both the similarities and the relative resiliency of the current cycle.
- Both Short-Term Holder positioning and their spending behaviour have largely improved as the spot price attempts to reclaim the Short-Term Holder cost-basis at $62.5k.
- A significant amount of Futures Open Interest remains in place, which may expose the market to deleveraging and liquidation cascades if significant volatility breaks out.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 40, 2024
For the first time since the ATH, Bitcoin has established a new technical higher high, as price bounced into the $66k region. Alongside this, there is a multitude of critical on-chain metrics that have also set higher highs, making this an interesting moment in time.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin’s cyclical price performance shows a striking similarity across the last three cycles, with the index at nearly the same position.
- Long-term Holders holding BTC in loss have risen, as coins bought near the $73k ATH pass the 155-day mark.
- However, the unrealized loss for these investors is minimal, indicating little financial pressure on portfolios.
- Short-Term Holder profitability has improved in the recent rally, bringing relief to recent buyers.
- US ETF investors’ conviction remains strong, with only minor sell-side pressure despite being below their average inflow cost.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 50, 2024
Bitcoin’s journey from the Genesis Block to $100k per BTC is a historic moment and a new high watermark in adoption. With 19.8M BTC mined, $131T in transfer volume processed, and 1.12B transactions, the $100k price milestone is yet another sign of Bitcoin's resilience.
Executive Summary
- The Bitcoin price crossed the $100k mark for the first time on 5 December, after 5,256 trading days, and hitting a market cap briefly exceeding $2 Trillion.
- Miners have earned a cumulative $71.49 Billion since inception, reflecting the network's robust security and economic incentives.
- The network has processed a total of 1.12 Billion transactions and settled $131.25 Trillion in transfer volume, with entity-adjusted figures providing an even clearer view of genuine economic activity.
- A breakdown of supply held by various cohorts highlights a broad distribution of Bitcoin ownership, ranging from retail investors to institutional-scale holders.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Bitcoin’s market cycles are marked by a gradual transition of wealth from long-term holders to short-term holders. This dynamic is playing out similarly in the current cycle but with additional nuances due to the influence of spot ETFs:
As long-term holders are typically defined as those holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days, many early ETF-driven buyers now fall into this category.
🔹 Spot ETF buyers, who began accumulating heavily early in the year, swelled the 6-12 month cohort to 25% by August. Since October, this group has reduced to 16%, possibly due profit-taking by these newer market participants.
🔹 A more concerning trend is the decline in the 1-2 year and 2-3 year cohorts, which represent seasoned holders who accumulated during the June-November 2022 market bottoming phase. Their distribution suggests we are transitioning toward the later stages of the cycle.
🔹 Holders from the 3-5 year cohort remain relatively stable at ~13.9%, indicating that these holders don’t yet seem incentivized to sell.
Bitcoin briefly advanced above $100K - a historic milestone - but the move was short-lived. Where could the retracement stop? Glassnode’s new Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) metric offers on-chain insights into accumulation and distribution patterns, helping to spot critical price levels.
What is CBD? CBD is a heatmap that shows the total Bitcoin supply grouped by the average cost basis of investors at specific price levels. By visualizing where cost bases are concentrated, CBD helps identify key zones of support and resistance based on investor behavior.
Example Insight
The $96K–$98K range saw over 101K BTC accumulated, solidifying it as a strong support zone. Above $98K, ~81K BTC was acquired, forming short-term resistance. Below $96K, limited activity suggests weak support if prices retrace.
With CBD, you can move beyond price and volume data to analyze investor behavior and identify critical zones of interest with more precision. Learn more about CBD and how to use it here: https://glassno.de/4ijpUex
#Bitcoin's rally to the $99.4K ATH moved investor holdings to extreme profit levels, resulting in a sharp redistribution of supply.
With several risk metrics elevated, are we approaching a turning point? Our latest Week On-Chain explores the data: https://glassno.de/3VmOm4O
With the number of active addresses currently at around 751K, BNB Chain's active address momentum is ramping up.
Active address momentum is defined as a crossover between short- and long-term averages of the metric. Typically, it indicates an expansion in onchain activity, improving fundamentals and growing network utilization.
However, BNB's active addresses are still well below the 2021 peak of ~1.5M, suggesting potential for further growth: https://glassno.de/49k9YEM
Curious about what’s happening on other major blockchains? Assess asset fundamentals for SOL, TON, TRON, and more with Glassnode Studio. Analyze active accounts, transaction volumes, and fees across leading ecosystems: https://glassno.de/4ijXbWL
The Week On-Chain 48, 2024
Following a flurry of consistent new ATHs, Bitcoin is just a stone's throw away from reaching a price of $100k per coin. Explosive price action tends to result in a significant increase in the unrealized profit of holders, and Long-Term Holders are ramping up their distribution in response.
Executive Summary
- As the Bitcoin price rallied towards $100k, Long-Term Holders commenced distributing over 507k BTC, which remains less than the 934k BTC sell-side during the March rally but is significant nonetheless.
- Long-term holders are locking in sizeable profit volumes, setting a new ATH of $2.02B in daily realized profit.
- When assessing the composition of which entities are spending, the majority of this sell-side pressure appears to originate from coins aged between 6 months and 1 year.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
During the recent rally to $99.4K, Long-Term Holders’ Net Position Change dropped to -366K BTC/month, marking the highest selling pressure since April 2024. This signals significant profit-taking by LTHs, but it's important to examine which sub-groups within LTHs contributed to this.
Looking closer, 6m-12m holders led the activity, spending 25.6K BTC/day (7D-MA). Their cost basis, estimated at $57.9K (71% below market price), explains the incentive to capitalize on the rally. This aligns with natural behavior for intra-cycle holders like ETF-related buyers from earlier this year.
Key takeaway: Most selling pressure came from buyers in the $50K–$60K range, indicating intra-cycle LTHs drove profit-taking. There was minimal sell-off by OG long-term holders, whose behavior typically signals deeper shifts in market sentiment.
BTC Long-Term Holder Net Position Change chart: https://t.co/hr64gBGUCd
BTC Spent Volume in Profit by Age chart: glassno.de/3CF66lA
BTC SOPR by Age chart: glassno.de/3ATrqmP
The Week On-Chain 47, 2024
Bitcoin continues to relentlessly establish new ATHs, supported by robust capital inflows from both ETFs and the Spot Market, with over $62.9B entering the market over the last 30 days. As the market proceeds to heat up, Long-Term Holder spending begins to rise in tandem.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin’s rally to $93k has been fuelled by robust capital inflows from both ETFs, and spot markets. Over $62.9B has entered the market over the last 30 days, with BTC dominating the demand inflows.
- Elevated unrealized profits among long-term holders have triggered significant spending activity, with 128k BTC sold between 8-October and 13-November.
- U.S. Spot ETFs played a pivotal role, absorbing around 90% of the selling pressure from long-term holders over the analyzed period. This highlights the growing importance of the ETFs in maintaining liquidity, and stabilizing the market.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Glassnode is proud to announce a new collaboration with Fasanara Digital to bring you the Q4 2024 Digital Asset Report. Download the report here: https://glassno.de/4fmMYHq
Partnering with Fasanara Digital, which is known for its data-driven, scientific approach to trading, highlights the real-world utility of Glassnode’s on-chain data and expertise for strategic investment in digital assets. The report examines key trends shaping the bull market, including:
- Bitcoin’s growing position as a core asset in institutional portfolios.
- Unprecedented futures activity reflecting deeper liquidity and reduced volatility.
- Shifts in capital flow that point to asset allocation trends altseason.
For institutional investors, this report offers a strategic foundation for navigating the bull market as it unfolds. Learn more on Glassnode Insights blog: https://glassno.de/3Z55v5r
Solana recently saw a massive spike in on-chain transfer volume, reaching approximately $224 billion in a single day - almost three times the market cap of SOL at $76B! This surge was apparently driven by a single wallet controlling multiple accounts, likely operated by a bot. The increase in fees that many noticed recently can likely be traced back to this activity.
Now, with the first stage of Solana support live on Glassnode, you can dive into similar insights. Access essential metrics like address activity and transfer volume to explore Solana’s network dynamics. More metrics will be coming soon as part of our multi-chain expansion.
Explore the full list of new Solana metrics: https://glassno.de/48Dhri0
Last night, David Duong, Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional, and our Lead Analyst, James Check, hosted an insightful webinar, highlighting key takeaways from our Q4 Guide to Crypto Markets.
A big thank you to all the institutional participants who joined us. If you missed it, you can access the recording here: https://glassno.de/3YdZ8Lr
The Q4 2024 Guide to Crypto Markets by Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional is here! Despite range-bound prices, significant trends have been unfolding beneath the surface.
Download the full report here: https://glassno.de/3Y0y1De
- Liquidity is surging as markets deepen and institutions take a stronger position.
- On-chain activity rise shows the growing utility of blockchain in real-world applications.
- The continued engagement with spot ETFs shows institutional investors remain committed to these assets.
Get the full analysis in the report.
TRON metrics are now live on Glassnode! Track TRON’s network fundamentals, fund flows, and investor sentiment with your favourite Glassnode metrics, including:
- Total & New Addresses
- Realized Price & Realized Cap
- MVRV & HODL Waves
- TRX Supply Distribution by Wallet Size
Explore these and other metrics today and use the data to gain a better understanding of TRON on-chain activity and performance.
Start with this Dashboard to get an overview: https://glassno.de/3ZZdRMD
We are excited to share that Glassnode’s Chief Commercial Officer, Daniel Blackmore, will be speaking at The Digital Asset Conference, hosted by Fasanara Digital in London, between the 7th - 8th of November.
This event will bring together traditional financial institutions and companies at the forefront of innovation in the digital asset industry.
Daniel will be moderating the panel discussion, “Breaking Boundaries: How Asset Tokenization is Reshaping Global Markets,” at 13:40 on 8th November. Joining him on the panel are Max Boonen, Founder and CEO at PV01, and Ricardo Correia, Partner at Bain & Company.
For those attending, feel free to contact us at sales@glassnode.com.
We look forward to connecting with you!
The Week On-Chain 39, 2024
In the wake of the Federal Reserve's 0.5% interest rate cut, Bitcoin has reclaimed the Short-Term Holder cost basis of ~$61.9k. This rally could achieve technical significance if the price also holds above the 200-day moving average at $63.9k.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has reclaimed the Short-Term Holder cost basis ($61.9k) and 200DMA ($63.9k) following a 0.50% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
- Short-term holders are under marginally less pressure as prices rise above their cost basis, after a period of net capital outflows.
- New investors show a degree of resilience, seen in realized losses being of a relatively small magnitude, suggesting confidence in the overall uptrend.
- The perpetual futures market displays a cautious recovery in sentiment, with gradually increasing demand but still below levels seen during strong bull markets.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.