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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
🔍📊 In our latest Chart of the Week, we examine Bitcoin whales, defined as investors with more than 1,000 BTC. Their presence in the market is linked with certain trends: an increase in their numbers during bear markets and peaks at market tops.
This year, there has been a rise in the activity of these investors, particularly when Bitcoin's price remained stable. This pattern suggests a strategic approach in their Bitcoin transactions, offering insights for market analysis. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1freK9eZBs
Building on our recent introductions of the Internal Reshuffling Ratio and the Exchange Reliance Ratio, our Analysts and Data Science team have created the Whale Withdrawal Ratio for Crypto Risk and Portfolio Managers.
This latest ratio tracks significant withdrawal activities by major investors, serving as an indicator of market confidence and stability.
- Analysis: Monitoring trends in this ratio is crucial for risk managers to anticipate and prepare for shifts in the market.
- Interactive View: Gain in-depth insights about this ratio here: https://glassno.de/3t5mDuv
- Connect with Experts: Engage with our product experts for a comprehensive understanding. Connect here: https://glassno.de/3uJRE7X
Our Data Science team have built the Internal Reshuffling Ratio for Crypto Risk and Portfolio Managers. This indicator measures internal transaction activities within an exchange, highlighting fund management and potential risk.
- Analysis: An elevated ratio suggests heightened internal activity, possibly indicating risk factors or operational anomalies that require attention.
- Interactive View: Explore its implications in detail here: https://glassno.de/414tEZa
- Connect with Experts: Connect with our product experts here: https://glassno.de/3uJRE7X
The Week On-chain 48, 2023
The growth rate of the Ethereum validator set has slowed in recent weeks, as an increasing number of validators voluntarily exit. This has slowed the rate of ETH issuance. Alongside increasing ETH burnt via EIP1559 due to growing network activity, the ETH supply has turned deflationary once again.
Executive Summary
- The Ethereum staking pool has experienced a significant trend change marked by an increasing amount of validators exiting since October. This development correlates with a broader bullish uptrend across digital asset markets.
-The increased number of validator exits has contributed to a decline in daily ETH issuance, which is related to the amount of active ETH within the staking pool.
- Simultaneously, we have seen increased network activity, driven by renewed interest in tokens and stablecoins. This is reflected by an increase in gas fees being burnt via EIP1559 triggering a deflationary turn the ETH supply.
Read more in The Week On-chain newsletter.
🔍📊 In our latest Chart of the Week, we analyze Glassnode's 'accumulation trend score by wallet cohort'. This metric offers insights into the investment patterns of Bitcoin market participants, differentiated by the size of their holdings. It highlights how larger and smaller investors react to market changes, providing a nuanced understanding of market dynamics. This perspective can be beneficial in forming your investment approach, particularly in volatile markets. https://youtu.be/klYNF6_6Cnc
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🔎 Dive into our latest FinanceBridge issue to uncover the potential impact of Spot Bitcoin ETF approvals on crypto markets. This edition is packed with insights on how the approval could shift #BTC's supply and demand dynamics. We also spotlight crucial Glassnode metrics essential for navigating this new environment.
🔗 Don’t miss out on these key insights. Read the full analysis here: https://glassno.de/3usjplc
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on BTC and ETH vs Gold:
- Bitcoin's performance against gold was remarkable, almost doubling its gold-purchasing power with a growth exceeding 90%, demonstrating its significant ascendancy in the digital asset market.
- Ethereum, while achieving a 40% increase against gold, did not match Bitcoin's extraordinary growth, reflecting a growing performance disparity between these two leading cryptocurrencies.
- In fluctuating markets, Bitcoin and Ethereum exhibited similar trends on the downside. Yet, during periods of growth, Bitcoin consistently surpassed Ethereum, underscoring its robust performance in comparison to gold and Ethereum.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8GRxEUxZWQ
🔍📊 Discover Bitcoin's critical support and resistance zones in our Chart of the Week. Our analysis of Entity-Adjusted URPD reveals where the market's cost basis clusters could steer the next price movements. Watch now for essential on-chain insights to refine your trading and investment decisions. https://youtu.be/-8gIA9aaHMI
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In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Shrimp Balance Change:
- Shrimp, crabs, and fish, categorized as holders of under 100 BTC, are acquiring 92% of newly minted Bitcoin, reflecting significant investment activity by smaller market participants.
- The investment pattern significantly strengthened post the Luna and Three Arrows Capital collapses, signaling an extended phase of increased Bitcoin holding beginning in June 2022.
- Bitcoin's transition from liquid exchange wallets to investor-held wallets suggests a tightening supply, as investors, both new and established, exhibit a preference for holding over selling.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bk4erUcu8l4
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Cointime True Market Mean Price:
- The True Market Mean Price is an updated realized price model that was developed in collaboration with ARK Invest, accurately representing the cost basis for active investors by accounting for lost coins and early miners.
- A critical level in the Bitcoin market is the $28,000 benchmark, which signifies the average active Bitcoin investor's cost basis, and the market's recent movement above this suggests that a majority of these investors are now seeing profits.
- Compared to the tools available in 2015, today's instruments provide a more transparent insight into the market's cost basis, and moving above this significant level is likely to have a profound impact on overall investor sentiment.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xnTNXXxHlY
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Futures Funding Rates:
- Funding rates act as a directional barometer for the market, and throughout 2023, there was a clear long bias with traders consistently paying to maintain their long positions.
- For a significant portion of 2023, perpetual annualized funding rates yielded more than US Treasury rates, underscoring the potential rewards and risks of Bitcoin futures trading.
- Following the notable selloff in August, market volumes diminished, pointing to a widespread market apathy, and while futures play a pivotal role, the adjusting rates indicate the presence of other key market dynamics.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gp7mIbcWjKY
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on The Realized Cap HODL Waves:
- The Realized Cap HODL Waves assesses the distribution of wealth across age cohorts, offering a clearer perspective on Bitcoin's investor sentiment.
- During bull markets, the landscape is dominated by new speculative investors, whereas bear phases see committed long-term HODLers accumulating, highlighting the shifting dynamics of wealth through market cycles.
- This tool provides a vivid display of real-time capital rotations in the market, emphasizing moments when older Bitcoin coins are spent and aiding in a detailed market analysis.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHDk9hr7sBg
🔍 Finance Bridge by Glassnode is our go-to resource for traditional finance entities looking to integrate on-chain insights into their trading and investments. In the October edition, we delve into Bitcoin's resilience amidst panic selling and the hints of new capital inflow. We also explore how global economic challenges influence Bitcoin's liquidity and the unique options market dynamics. Plus, learn how to use the MVRV Ratio to inform your trading and investment strategies. Discover all these insights here: https://insights.glassnode.com/finance-bridge-edition-5/
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In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Transaction Counts and Block Capacity:
- SegWit utilizes a dual structure that separates transaction data from witness data, allowing inscriptions to be placed in the signature side and benefiting from data discounting.
- In previous bull markets, the transaction count peaked at 400,000 daily, but with modern optimizations, we're seeing numbers rise to 550,000 due to efficient packing of inscriptions.
- The average block now contains between 2.8k - 3.5k transactions, with daily spikes occasionally reaching over 4k per block.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qz0T9Ln-eYQ
New Chart of the Week is up! We're exploring the on-chain cost basis and MVRV metrics, spotlighting short-term holders. With Bitcoin's price testing its local range, why are these some of the key on-chain indicators to watch? Watch the video below for insights that can help you with your trading and investment decisions: https://youtu.be/GgDLdZPAX8I
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In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Bitcoin Year-to-Date Performance vs USD and Gold:
- Bitcoin surged over 140% against the USD and doubled in value compared to gold this year, highlighting its robust performance and growing appeal as an investment asset.
- Gold briefly achieved a new all-time high, reaching approximately $2,150 USD, setting a significant record in its value across all fiat currencies.
- Bitcoin is increasingly competing with gold for 'sound money' investments, driven by rising institutional interest and the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting a shift in investment strategies.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cT4r0rwmGsc&t=61s
Following the introduction of the Internal Reshuffling Ratio by our Analysts and Data Science team yesterday, we continue our series today with the Exchange Reliance Ratio for Crypto Risk and Portfolio Managers.
This innovative ratio provides insights into inter-exchange dependencies and liquidity, shedding light on market interconnectedness and potential liquidity risks.
- Analysis: Fluctuations in this ratio are key indicators of shifts in market dynamics, making it an invaluable tool for proactive risk assessment.
- Interactive View: Dive deeper into how this ratio influences market dynamics. Explore here: https://glassno.de/3R5aSfv
- Connect with Experts: For a comprehensive understanding and analysis, our expert team is available for consultation. Connect here: https://glassno.de/3uJRE7X
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on URPD Cost Basis Analysis:
- URPD analysis highlights key cost basis zones, showing significant Bitcoin accumulation between $25K and $31K.
- An airgap can be noted between $31k and $33k, with price having passed through here quickly.
- Emerging trends in Bitcoin's cost basis are observed around $33K to $35K, reflecting recent profit-taking and potential future market dynamics.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URTPtRoi2n8
Our data science team has developed 10+ core on-chain concepts for institutions: 👇
Refine your strategy with our complete guide: https://glassno.de/46t6CMD
For now, here are 3 of these transformative metrics:
- Realized Profit and Loss: Evaluates value changes in coins from on-chain transactions, providing insights into profit or loss for financial impact assessment and market trends.
- Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL): Measures hypothetical profit or loss at current prices, highlighting the difference between acquisition costs and current values, crucial for identifying market cycles.
- Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR): Analyzes profit and loss across all on-chain transactions in a set period, vital for market timing and sentiment analysis.
For more personalized demonstrations or in-depth discussions, visit our institutional page: https://glassnode.com/institutions#contact
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Illiquid Supply:
- Glassnode's approach to quantifying the Illiquid Supply categorizes Bitcoin's supply based on wallet activity, distinguishing between liquid, highly liquid, and illiquid supplies.
- In contrast to highly liquid supplies such as exchange wallets, illiquid wallets are characterized by more inflows and fewer outflows, reflecting distinct holding behaviors.
- There is an increasing trend of Bitcoin moving from exchanges to illiquid states, which highlights a shift towards long-term holding and potential cold storage.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbJxxcHAVTI
The volume of Bitcoin supply in profit has reached the levels last was seen 2 years ago as the market came off the Nov 2021 ATH. However, the magnitude of unrealized profit held within these coins remains modest, and thus far insufficient to motivate long-term holders to lock in profits.
Executive Summary
- As the market trades at yearly highs, over 83.6% of the Bitcoin coin supply is held in profit, being the highest level since November 2021 (near the ATH).
- However, the magnitude of unrealized profit held, being the delta between price and the coins cost basis, remains modest.
- The degree of unrealized profit held by investors is thus far an insufficient incentive to motivate long-term holder to spend, keeping the overall supply relatively tight.
In our latest newsletter, we break down the difference between 'coins in profit' and 'unrealized profit' in an on-chain framework. We explore this distinction further in our video report to identify periods where the market is overheated for managing risk.
Recent volatility in Ethereum, triggered by BlackRock's move to file for a spot ETH ETF, highlights yet another pivotal moment in the digital asset landscape. This ETF could significantly impact Ethereum's supply-demand dynamics and its broader ecosystem. For investors navigating these changes, Glassnode offers essential insights for strategic decision-making. Download our one-page guide to understand how metrics like Gas Usage, Altcoin Indicator, and Capital Rotation Dynamics can inform your trading decisions, both now and in the future: https://glassno.de/47xVfDZ
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The fourth #Bitcoin halving is fast approaching, estimated to be in April 2024.
In this edition, we deep dive into the impressive tightness of $BTC supply, and demonstrate how we can measure investor accumulation patterns in the lead up to the event.
By many measures of 'available supply', #Bitcoin is as tightly held by investors as it has ever been relative to total circulating supply.
Meanwhile, rates of accumulation and HODLing far exceed new issuance today.
Read more in The Week On-chain newsletter.
The Bitcoin Supply is historically tight, with an all-time-high in coins held by Long-Term investors, and impressive rates of accumulation taking place. In this edition we explore this tightness using several on-chain supply heuristics and metrics.
Executive Summary
- The Bitcoin supply is quite tight with several measures of supply such as Illiquid, HODLed, and Long-Term Holder Supply at historical highs.
- The spending behavior of Short-Term Holders suggests a shift in market character has taken place now that the market has rallied above the key $30k level.
- Analysis of investor cost basis for various cohorts suggests that this $30k level is an important zone of interest for the bulls, with an 'air-gap' between there and $33k.
Read our full analysis in The Week On-chain Newsletter, and watch our latest video analysis report.
📈Bitcoin has seen a 25% surge over the past two weeks, largely driven by the anticipation of a spot BTC ETF and its renewed status as a potential safe haven. But how can we truly measure the confidence behind this rally? Dive into our latest Chart of the Week video where we explore Glassnode's recently-developed indicator, specifically designed to gauge the confidence of new investors in Bitcoin's current price trend. Discover the insights it offers and how it can be affect your trading strategies. https://youtu.be/Y5nqImojbPA
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The Week On-chain 43, 2023 - A Breath of Fresh Air: Bitcoin Breaks to $35K
Bitcoin prices have broken to new yearly highs, trading above the mid-cycle price level of $30k, and reaching $35k. The market found sufficient strength to break above several important psychological pricing levels, making the weeks that follow important to keep an eye on.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin bulls have managed to push BTC prices back to $35k, breaking several key technical and on-chain pricing levels which were co-located around $28k, a noteworthy sign of strength.
- Derivatives markets contributed to the move with a pair of short-squeezes, closing out of 60k BTC worth of futures positions, and a $4.3B surge in options call open interest.
- Long-term investors are unphased by this weeks price action, with Long-Term Holder supply reaching new ATHs, and revived supply volumes remaining insignificant.
Read our full analysis in The Week On-chain Newsletter, or watch our latest video report.
Capital rotation within digital assets markets occurs both between assets, as well as internally as coins change hands at different acquisition prices.
In this edition, we develop two indicators based off the Realized Cap and NUPL to track this rotation of capital between investors.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain👇
https://glassno.de/3QjOIH9
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Percent Short-Term Holders in Profit:
- Short-term holders have recently been the focus, and it's evident they take profits during market peaks and incur losses during dips, as highlighted by a blue oscillator representation.
- Short-term holders are significantly sensitive to their cost-basis; thus, they tend to sell when in profit, but when facing potential losses, they can quickly succumb to panic, leading to asset transfers.
- Interestingly, while short-term holders predominantly impact immediate price actions, long-term holders are more active, especially during the pronounced cycle peaks and troughs.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AfzrLRRgVY
Liquid staking transforms the supply dynamics of Ethereum and creates a shift in the demand for Ethereum's native token.
We discuss how stETH has become particularly attractive on lending platforms, whilst stETH liquidity on decentralized exchanges diminishes.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://t.co/7c3HKsC0LZ
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on the upcoming Bitcoin Halving:
- We delve into the implications of the halving, exploring how the reduction in rewards will necessitate a significant increase in Bitcoin’s price to prevent operational losses for miners, potentially leading to the exit of those who can't maintain efficiency in this new landscape.
- Our models reveal a strong correlation between mining difficulty and market cap with a discernible stress point evident 24,000 USD.
- In a post-halving scenario, the focus intensifies on the survival and efficiency of miners, with indicators suggesting a requisite Bitcoin value above 30,000 USD to alleviate stress, thus offering a glimpse into market resilience and health under varying conditions.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0lf7q9OmOc