45195
Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyse the GBTC Balance:
- GBTC's market impact is notable, with its transition from a closed-end fund to an ETF enabling share redemptions and significantly influencing Bitcoin's market dynamics, especially during the shift to a discount phase.
- The conversion of GBTC to an ETF led to significant Bitcoin outflows, including around 161,000 Bitcoin, largely due to redemptions and ETF fees.
- The ongoing market dynamics from GBTC's transition are still unfolding, with substantial outflows suggesting a shift of coins to other ETFs and a relatively modest market correction observed so far.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS-1FvqLH0Y&t=2s
The Bitcoin Realized Cap remains just -5.4% shy of its previous ATH of $467B, and is currently experiencing strong capital inflows.
That said, the duration for this recovery to accelerate has been markedly slower than prior cycles, arguably due to the significant supply overhang from challenging trades like the GBTC arbitrage.
🥇 2012-13 Cycle 0.22% daily
🥉 2015-16 Cycle: 0.09% daily
🥈 2019-20 Cycle: 0.17% daily
🐢 2023-24 Cycle: 0.05% daily
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
glassno.de/3SjCBtJ
The Week On-Chain 05, 2024
The Bitcoin market continues to show resilience, recovering from the initial sell-the-news drawdown following ETF approvals. In particular, the market is working through the significant supply overhead created by investors rebalancing capital out of the GBTC product since its conversion.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin price performance since the 2022 lows shows striking similarity to prior cycles, albeit recovering somewhat slower, but in a more resilient manner.
- Despite a modest uptick in older coin spending following ETF approvals, the majority of long-term Bitcoin investors remain unwilling to part with their coins at current prices.
- Network activity remains low in terms of entities, but monetary volume transferred on-chain, and specifically to exchanges remains robust, and resembles prior bull market cycles.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Long and Short-Term Holder Supply:
- Market trends and investor behaviors are significantly impacted by changes in the balance between long-term and short-term Bitcoin holders.
- The distribution of long-term versus short-term holders serves as a market sentiment indicator, where an increase in short-term holders often aligns with market peaks, signaling new investor influx and potential volatility.
- The current market state, marked by a modest increase in short-term holder supply, suggests it isn't in a robust bull run, and a declining market could indicate insufficient demand, reflecting weaker market strength.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zECAQxOv1A&t=2s
Last night, David Duong, CFA, Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional, and our Lead Analyst, James Check, hosted an in-depth webinar which highlighted some key insights from our Q1 Guide to Crypto Markets.
A big thank you to the many institutional investors who attended the live webinar and asked amazing questions. If you missed it, you can access the recording here: https://get.glassnode.com/2024-crypto-guide-coinbase/
Get in touch here: https://glassnode.com/institutions
With the Bitcoin ETF becoming a classic sell-the-news event, we explore the market's risk appetite for tokens further out on the risk curve.
There are some indicators alluding to Ethereum outperformance, as well as interesting divergences in altcoin price action relative to the majors.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain👇
https://glassno.de/3Hszc6P
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on ETFs:
- GBTC remains a key player in the ETF market, holding about 617,000 BTC. It has recently reduced its fee, shifting from a premium to a 50% discount, which impacts investor decisions.
- The ETFs saw a $7.6 billion trading volume in two days, with GBTC alone contributing $4.16 billion. Investors are weighing the trade-off between GBTC's high liquidity and its fees against other ETFs with lower fees.
- The market now features around 10 different ETF products, each with its own characteristics. This diversity presents a complex scenario for analysts and investors, requiring careful observation of the market's evolution.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wzwcm_mg7zU&t=1s
Whilst the fourth halving is pre-determined to occur at block-height 840,000, the exact date is unknown due to the natural variability and probabilistic nature of mining blocks.
Our best estimate given the current average block interval is that the halving is now 100-days away.
Whilst the fourth halving is pre-determined to occur at block-height 840,000, the exact date is unknown due to the natural variability and probabilistic nature of mining blocks.
Our best estimate given the current average block interval is that the halving is now 100-days away.
If you'd like to learn more about how the halving may affect the supply and demand dynamics of Bitcoin and, ultimately, its price action in the coming months, this comprehensive analysis Glassnode produced back in November is your go-to resource: https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-46-2023/
The Week On-chain 03 , 2024
2024 has opened with a roller-coaster ride for Bitcoin, as ten new spot ETFs begin trading in US markets. The event was historic and chaotic, with BTC prices setting both new multi-year highs, and YTD lows. Bitcoin has welcomed traditional finance into it's world.
Executive Summary
- The successful SEC approval of ten new spot BTC ETF products set the scene for a characteristically chaotic week for Bitcoin investors.
- BTC prices set new multi-year highs, followed by YTD lows, as the market sold off -18% over the weekend. This was driven by both derivatives leverage and spot profit taking.
- Several indicators reached levels where past cycles found meaningful resistance, and was highlighted by ~75K BTC being spent by Long-Term Holders taking profits.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Market Year-to-Date Price Performance in 2023:
- Bitcoin experienced exceptional growth in 2023, with its market cap increasing by 170%, significantly outperforming traditional assets, and its dominance was particularly notable since October.
- Ethereum has lagged behind, evidenced by its ratio to Bitcoin reaching multi-year lows, which indicates that its growth hasn't kept pace with Bitcoin's.
- The wider altcoin sector, excluding Ethereum and stablecoins, has shown a steady performance, which parallels that of Ethereum, in stark contrast to Bitcoin's rapid growth.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALH1NGilj5I&t=1s
Yesterday marked the launch of the Q1 2024 Guide to Crypto Markets by Coinbase Institutional & Glassnode, and today we highlight a key piece of analysis from the report:
BTC Monthly Realized Volatility Bands
- Annual Perspective: Bollinger Bands applied over a one-year lookback period to capture a broad view of market trends.
- Volatility Insights: Pinpoints when volatility is notably high or low—identifying periods of significant price expansion/contraction or unusual calm.
These insights are crucial for investors to spot both turbulent periods and times of quiet before potential market movements.
For more insights, download our guide: https://get.glassnode.com/q1-2024-guide-to-crypto-markets/
Also, check out the accompanying dashboard for an interactive experience of the guide's insights: https://studio.glassnode.com/dashboards/8ce2df90-f7fa-4d66-595e-4d81584825ea
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Bull Market Corrections:
- The analysis uses Workbench to isolate and examine significant bull market periods, color-coding each epoch for clarity.
- It evaluates the depth of corrections within bull markets, assessing drawdowns from local highs to gauge the intensity of market dips.
- The 2023 market cycle demonstrates resilience, with relatively shallow corrections and rare drawdowns beyond 20%, indicating a strong and steady upward trend for Bitcoin.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3T8L6Yaeq0
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on NVT Price:
- The NVT price model is used to estimate Bitcoin's fair value, highlighting its economic relevance by comparing market cap to transaction volume.
- In its analysis, the model concentrates on economically meaningful transactions, filtering out internal exchange movements and wallet transfers to enhance the accuracy of its insights.
- Recent observations from the NVT price model reveal a mismatch between Bitcoin's price rise and transaction volume, indicating rapid price increases, with a noticeable uptick in transaction activity starting from October, coinciding with an influx of new capital into the Bitcoin market.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBgdfVaM7g0
Our analysts have pinpointed three essential metrics tailored to trend traders:
The convergence of these three metrics serves as a precise indicator of critical market inflection points. Trend traders can leverage these insights for strategic decisions, whether to close long positions or initiate short positions.
Realized Cap Net Position Change
- Spotlights periods of significant capital inflows, signaling opportune moments for entering or exiting positions.
- Strategically aligned with identifying the euphoric phase of a bull market.
Binary CDD
- Highlights the timing when experienced investors divest their holdings, often following an all-time high (ATH).
Realized HODL Ratio (RHODL Ratio)
- Analyzes the wealth distribution between seasoned and novice traders.
- Reflects the transfer of wealth from informed investors to retail traders.
For personalized demonstrations or in-depth discussions, visit our institutional page: https://glassnode.com/institutions#contact
How can institutional investors navigate the Bitcoin market post halving in April 2024? Gain insights with James Check, Glassnode's Lead Analyst and Cointime Economics co-author, in the Coinbase Institutional Podcast.
Key Insights for Institutional Investors:
- Shift in Market Dynamics Post-Halving: Exploration of how the Bitcoin market is expected to evolve post-halving, particularly focusing on the changing dynamics of supply and demand, and the impact on price movements.
- Influence of Long-term Holders: Discussion on how long-term Bitcoin holders might react to the halving event, their potential influence on market stability, and trends post-halving.
- Impact on Investment Strategies: Analysis of how institutional investors can adjust their strategies in anticipation of the halving, including considerations for risk management and capital allocation.
Discover in-depth analysis in the full episode: https://glassno.de/3RItXpB
Are Bitcoin sellers taking profits? Are long-term holders starting to sell? We've created an interactive guide covering 3 essential on-chain metrics that will help you uncover the market sentiment.
1. SOPR: Detect market consolidation or reversal points, understanding when sellers are taking profits. Interactive view: https://glassno.de/3UqImZ3
2. MVRV: Identify market conditions as overbought or oversold, steering clear of false signals. Engage with the metric here: https://glassno.de/3HG1UBg
3. HODL Waves: Anticipate price movements by analyzing Bitcoin holding patterns for shifts in supply and investor confidence. Learn more about HODL Waves: https://glassno.de/491RmIO
Read the full guide here:https://glassno.de/3SIvSuC
For traders and investors aiming to leverage these insights, we offer API access to SOPR, MVRV, and HODL Waves metrics.
Start with our free trial to elevate your trading strategy. Explore the guide and secure your API access here: https://glassno.de/491FpCW
Exchanges remain the primary venue for trading activity, and deposit and withdrawal volumes have experienced a significant expansion, hitting $6.8B/day.
The current volume rivals peaks set during the 2021 bull market, with only 68 trading days (1.5%) recording a higher value.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
glassno.de/3SjCBtJ
Assessing the severity of Bitcoin Bull Market Corrections by cycles, an increased level of resilience can noted across our current cycle.
Currently, the largest drawdown has reached a value of only -20.1%, paling in comparsion to historical precedence.
For further information on Bitcoin Price Performance, please visit our Dashboard: https://glassno.de/40Xt7GQ
In our latest Chart of the Week, we discover the significance of the Short-Term Holder Supply in Loss metric.
This cyclical indicator aids traders employing momentum strategies in the Bitcoin market. Gain insights into its role in distinguishing between market corrections and potential peaks, offering valuable information for strategic decision-making. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mjcde_26JSA
The Week On-chain 04 , 2024
The approval of a suite of new Bitcoin ETFs appears to have become a classic sell-the-news event, triggering BTC prices to drop by -19%. This makes for an ideal opportunity to assess how investor profitability has changed over recent weeks.
Executive Summary
- Supply in Profit/Loss as an ideal toolkit to monitor profitability.
- Breakdowns of supply into Long and Short-Term Holder cohorts.
- Identifying divergences using simple statistical bands and levels.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.
The Shrimp Cohort [<1 BTC] continues to aggressively accumulate Bitcoin
at a rate of +23.7K BTC / Month, bringing the total Shrimp supply to a value of 1.38M BTC.
For further information regarding Entity Accumulation and Distribution, visit our Dashboard: https://glassno.de/3g3mt0i
Or read our deep dive report exploring the supply distribution of Bitcoin, breaking down the supply by wallet size, and exploring how coins disperse over time: https://insights.glassnode.com/bitcoin-supply-distribution-revisited/
In our first Chart of the Week of 2024, we explore the Value Days Destroyed metric.
The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which turned out to be a "sell the news" event, prompts us to question if this marks the initial hint of a reversal in the positive trend we've witnessed over the past year. Value Days Destroyed, an indicator focused on Bitcoin's smart money, might just hold the answers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9T5zD09XTI
Attention institutional investors: On January 24th we will be hosting a live Webinar discussing the metrics that matter the most in Q1.
Join Glassnode's Lead Analyst, James Check, and David Duong, Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional, to learn:
- If digital assets correlate with traditional assets
- Where we are in the current cycle
- How adding crypto can affect portfolio performance
Seats are limited so sign up today: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_32Egmw1MRzegOHK6ScgQaA#/registration
Last week, in collaboration with Coinbase Institutional, we released the Q1 2024 Guide To Crypto Markets.
Thousands of downloads & acclaim for the 44-page guide on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Stablecoins, Derivatives, and portfolio strategies.
Here’s a quick recap of what’s making waves:
- Changing Correlations in Crypto: Highlights 2023 as the year digital assets, particularly Bitcoin, showed low correlations with traditional assets, enhancing portfolio diversity.
- Portfolio Analysis (Mar 2018 - Oct 2023): Adding the Coinbase Core Index to a 60/40 portfolio notably improved both absolute and risk-adjusted returns.
Stablecoin Growth: Explores the rise of various stablecoins and their impact on Q4's circulating supply, offering insight into their increasing importance.
You can view our brand new dashboard here: https://studio.glassnode.com/dashboards/8ce2df90-f7fa-4d66-595e-4d81584825ea
Download it now: https://get.glassnode.com/q1-2024-guide-to-crypto-markets/
The SEC has greenlit 11 Spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking a significant shift for the Bitcoin market. Let's examine the on-chain impact:
- Hash Rate hit a new peak over 600 EH/s, demonstrating network strength.
- Daily on-chain transactions exceed $5.7B, with exchange flows at $4.6B.
- Futures Open Interest is at $17.6B, with crypto collateral down to 22%.
- Bitcoin's Realized Cap nears an all-time high at $438B, suggesting increased demand.
- Holder Realized Prices indicate new market entrants:
🟠 $22.4K
🔴 $37.5K
🔵 $20.9K
Despite the rising market, HODLing persists as the prevailing strategy. Yet, a rise in Short-Term Holder supply hints at emerging distribution to new investors.
For full analysis, visit: https://x.com/glassnode/status/1745458120338604490?s=20
Introducing the Q1 2024 Guide To Crypto Markets by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode.
The 44-page Guide dives into Bitcoin, Ethereum, Stablecoins, Derivatives and portfolio allocation.
Here are some key takeaways from the report:
- Correlations have changed: Explore how cryptocurrency, particularly in 2023, returned to showing low correlations with traditional assets, reinforcing its role as a unique risk factor in diversified portfolios.
- Enhanced portfolio performance: Review data from March 2018 to October 2023 showing how adding the Coinbase Core Index to a traditional 60/40 portfolio improved both absolute and risk-adjusted returns.
- Stablecoins on the rise: Understand how various stablecoins contributed to the overall growth in circulating supply seen in Q4.
Download the guide here: https://get.glassnode.com/q1-2024-guide-to-crypto-markets/
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Short-Term Holder Profit Cycles:
- Short-Term Holder Profit Cycles Analysis highlights Bitcoin's short-term holders' influence on market dynamics, focusing on those who spend coins acquired within the last five months.
- The model tracks short-term holder coins moving from loss to profit, emphasizing periods that impact future price movements and measuring the duration of these profits.
- The analysis of consolidation periods and market inflection points shows how sustained consolidation forms a basis for price rallies, with quick changes in short-term holders' profit/loss status indicating key market shifts.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlUOMUEl0jo
The Week On-chain 51, 2023
In this last edition for the year, we will do a whirlwind tour of what changed this year, on-chain. We will explore how the Bitcoin, Ethereum, Derivative, and Stablecoin landscapes have evolved in 2023, and how this sets up the space for an exciting road ahead.
Executive Summary
- 2023 has been an incredible year for digital assets, with Bitcoin up over 172%, correcting less than 20%, and net capital inflows into BTC, ETH and Stablecoins.
- The market has broken above several important technical and on-chain pricing models this year, with October being a major pivot point for institutional capital flows.
- Long-Term Holders currently hold a near all-time-high of the Bitcoin supply, and a super-majority of coins are now held in profit.
- Major market structure shifts are taking place, such as Tether re-asserting dominance amongst stablecoins, CME futures flipping Binance, and significant frowth of Options markets.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Bitcoin's Daily Price Change:
- Workbench is used for detailed visualization and analysis of Bitcoin's daily price changes.
- Important daily price movements in Bitcoin are highlighted using if-then statements and standard deviation bands to mark major positive and negative changes.
- The recent 5.7% sell-off is recognized as Bitcoin's third largest in 2023, with the analysis drawing on past significant market events to provide context on its volatility.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojv9M9kAmOE
The Week On-chain 50, 2023
Bitcoin performed a round-trip this week, rallying to new yearly highs before selling off back towards its weekly open. After such a powerful 2023 thus far, the rally seems to have met resistance, with several indicators suggesting a degree of near-term exhaustion.
Executive Summary
The strong Bitcoin uptrend found resistance this week, breaking to a new yearly high of $44.5k before experiencing the third sharpest selling off of 2023.
Several on-chain pricing models suggest that 'fair value' based on investor cost basis and network throughput are lagging, hovering between $30k and $36k.
In response to strong price appreciation over recent months, Bitcoin Short-Term Holders have taken profits at a statistically meaningful magnitude, pausing the climb.
Read more in The Week On-chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.