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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
How can Bitcoin network usage data help you spot early signs of positive market momentum? Find out in our latest checklist designed for traders looking to capitalize on Bitcoin's fluctuations.
Analyze key indicators of network health and transaction dynamics with our four-step checklist for additional insights on strategic entry points and trend validation.
Key Insights to Discover:
- Anticipate market peaks and potential corrections by monitoring Bitcoin transaction counts and fee pressures.
- Find out how increased blockspace demand and heightened transactional activity can provide insight into BTC price movements.
- Identify early bullish trends and optimal entry points by analyzing
on-chain data on new addresses and active entities.
Download the checklist here: https://glassno.de/3Tf8vYS
The Week On-Chain 10, 2024
Bitcoin continues to surprise the market, with its recent rally pushing towards all-time-highs, even prior to the upcoming halving event. In this report, we assess how the demand inflows from the US Spot ETFs are interacting with the supply being released by Long-Term Holders taking profits.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin prices are attacking the ATH once again, taking the market by surprise, and rallying with strength even prior to the widely anticipated halving event.
- We have seen a sudden spike in the average transaction size interacting with Coinbase, which highlights the size and scale of new institutional capital entering Bitcoin.
- Long-Term Holders have started to ramp up their distribution pressure, hitting spending rates of 257k BTC/month, with GBTC accounting for 57% of these volumes.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.
With the Bitcoin halving just about 47 days away, Glassnode has lined up a wealth of insightful content for the coming weeks, suitable for both newcomers to this market as well as experienced digital asset investors. Our introductory article offers context and overview of the halving's effect on the market dynamics. It addresses trading strategies, market cycles, and mining companies operations post-halving.
Read it to get up to speed with all the relevant information on how to navigate the upcoming changes. 👇
https://glassno.de/48FoULL
Today we're sharing a video walkthrough of our Bitcoin market risk framework, created as a tool for discretionary traders to assess the probability of a BTC correction. In the video, we explain the purpose of the framework and how you can incorporate it in your risk management strategies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFVI3vKvkUE
Want to checkout all the metrics in our Risk Assessment Dashboard? Click here: https://glassno.de/3UYYz82
Next in our checklist series designed for momentum traders, we're turning to profit and loss metrics. Find out how to optimize your trading strategy by leveraging data on near real-time profit-taking and loss-realization events in the Bitcoin market.
Key insights to discover:
- Spot potential trend reversals by analyzing when Bitcoin traders are taking losses or locking in profits with metrics like SOPR and MVRV.
- Understand market cycle phases to better time your trade entries.
- Identify upcoming seller exhaustion points - a bullish entry signal for momentum traders.
- Learn how to maximize your analysis with SOPR variants.
Download the checklist here: https://glassno.de/3SWE09U
The Week On-Chain 09, 2024
The risk appetite for Bitcoin investors is increasing, with growing signs of speculation appearing across capital flows, exchange activity, derivatives leverage, and even institutional demand.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoins recovery is near completion as capital continues to pour into the asset class, propelling the Realized Cap to $460B, and only 3% shy of its ATH.
- Exchange inflow volumes are near all-time-highs, with Short-Term Holders dominating the flows. This suggests a relatively strong demand for speculation and trading activity.
- Open interest in both futures and options markets are also near all-time-highs, and directional short-sellers continue to bet against the uptrend, resulting in over $465M in liquidation volume over the last 30-days.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyse Futures Open Interest:
- Investors often move to high-leverage futures positions during market upswings, which adds more risk to the system.
- A significant shift of open interest from Binance to CME highlights a change in trader activity and preferences.
- Evaluating open interest in both USD and BTC terms is essential for a true understanding of leverage and market dynamics, beyond Bitcoin's price movements.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9HROwiunXo&t=28s
How can supply metrics help you identify market inflection points and better time your trades in the Bitcoin market. Find out in the first of our momentum trader's checklist series.
Tailored for traders, the checklist includes:
Five-step method:
- Discover five key questions to guide your analysis of Bitcoin supply dynamics. Learn how changes in supply can correlate significant price movements.
Suggested analysis:
- A deep-dive on how to leverage SLRV Ribbons to spot early signs of market momentum shifts. Find out how to combine this powerful metric with other indicators.
Download the checklist here: https://glassno.de/42PM4gU
The Week On-Chain 08, 2024
With the new Bitcoin ETFs now live for over a month, Bitcoin has continued to impress investors, rallying to over $52k, and holding that level. Meanwhile, many in futures markets continue to bet against the trend, seeing an uptick in short liquidations.
Executive Summary
- Global market assessment using NUPL and MVRV indicators.
- Analysis of futures market open interest, and leverage ratio.
- Observations of short-side interest betting against the trend.
- Overview of exchange flows, comparing dominance of the majors.
Watch our latest video analysis report.
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyse Long-Term Holder Supply and GBTC:
- Long-term holders and GBTC significantly impact Bitcoin's market dynamics, showing most short-term holders remain in profit unless they sold during recent corrections.
- GBTC's accumulation and the movement of its coins play a crucial role in shaping the long-term holder supply, affecting the market's supply and demand balance.
- The movement of approximately 148,000 Bitcoin by long-term holders highlights significant market activity, suggesting that observing these changes can reveal insights into investor sentiment and the direction of the market.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNjifxSebO8&t=1s
The chart below presents a breakdown of the Bitcoin supply by the cost basis at which it was acquired.
We can see that the vast majority of coins (87%) were acquired below $48k, with a very large cluster of Short-Term Holder supply located between $40k and $45k.
However, Long-Term Holders dominate the 13% of supply held in loss, reflecting 'top buyers' from the 2021 rounded top and ATH.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3wfrElD
Bitcoin has reclaimed the $1T market cap, a key milestone, for the first time since December 2021. It now has a bigger capitalization than giants such as Walmart, Tesla, or even Berkshire Hathaway. However, for valuing digital assets like BTC, market cap has its limitations.
For deeper insights into actual capital inflows that can be readily incorporated into directional trading strategies, explore the Realized Cap, a key on-chain metric. Valuing each coin at the price of its last move, it makes a superior metric for gauging true trends and momentum.
To learn about this foundational on-chain metric, click here: https://insights.glassnode.com/the-realized-cap-foundation/
In this week's Chart of the Week, we examine the Short-Term Holder MVRV Ratio, an indicator for short-term Bitcoin market trends.
How does this metric inform us about potential local tops or bottoms? With historical data showing that peaks in MVRV often align with market adjustments, what do the current MVRV Ratio levels suggest for the near-term market direction? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eja2CRtwhw8
After the challenging recovery since the FTX collapse, this indicator has advanced to 2.06, entering the High Risk 🟧 regime.
As noted, these levels are typically seen during the early stages of bull markets, as long-term investors return to a relatively meaningful level of profitability.
Read the Report here: https://glassno.de/49jl8IQ
The Week On-Chain 06, 2024
On-chain data provides analysts and investors with a remarkable degree of transparency into the performance, adoption, and investor positioning within digital assets. In this piece, we highlighted several approaches and frameworks for assessing market momentum across various data categories.
Executive Summary:
- Tools available to monitor positive and negative market momentum.
- Indicators of inflection points and shifts in direction.
- Confluence across several on-chain categories for robustness.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.
As Bitcoin's pushing past its previous cycle high, the latest Finance Bridge report analyses evolving investor strategies, the surge in speculative asset interest, and the influence of ETFs on market dynamics. We also delve into Bitcoin halving's market implications and provide a status update on our recent market momentum and risk assessment exploratory frameworks. A must-read for those trading and investing in the digital asset market at professional and institutional levels.
Read the full analysis here: https://glassno.de/48MPbHU
It is crucial for directional traders to understand the dynamics of Bitcoin's price post-halving, which impacts scarcity, market cycles, demand, and mining profitability. To learn more about the ramifications of the halving, click here: https://glassno.de/48FoULL
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In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyse Bitcoin ETF Flows:
- Bitcoin ETFs, notably from BlackRock and Fidelity, have experienced strong inflows, indicating robust investor interest despite a decrease in GBTC's peak holdings.
- BlackRock and Fidelity's Bitcoin ETFs have recorded unprecedented 30-day inflows, marking a significant milestone in cryptocurrency adoption and investment.
- The slowing of GBTC outflows, coupled with high net inflows into other Bitcoin ETFs, suggests a shift in investor preference towards newer, regulated ETF offerings.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzyi0927_Xg&t=1s
Our ETF Spot metric shows that the total balance held by US ETFs has soared past 760,000 BTC, with GBTC making up the lions share, followed by Blackrock. https://glassno.de/49WPell
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Following a week of explosive price action and strong capital inflows, the Bitcoin Realized Cap has experienced a near full recovery, increasing to a value of $467.2B.
This places our current value just -0.22% below the ATH of $468.3B.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇
https://glassno.de/3OXJOyt
During bear markets, liquidity is predominantly provided for the Top 50 tokens, as this is where the majority of trade volume occurs. The Top 10 tokens are mainly comprised of WETH, WBTC, and Stablecoins.
By looking at the percent change in TVL for each token category, we can detect an increase in liquidity provided for the Top 10 (5.14%) and Top 20 (10.9%) tokens, whilst liquidity has been removed for tokens ranked 20 to 50. This suggests that the market appetite for long-tail assets has not yet picked up meaningfully.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/4bUAXaW
Today, we're providing a status update on our Bitcoin Risk Assessment Framework, a tool for discretionary traders to gauge market sentiment and underlying risk. Below, you can see the latest reading on selected risk metrics. High volatility ahead? Take a look.
Want to checkout all the metrics in our Risk Assessment Dashboard? Click here: https://glassno.de/48c6bXT
In terms of asset performance, Bitcoin and Ethereum are leading the pack, with YTD gains of +17.6% and +18.2%, respectively. We note that following the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, ETH has started to outperform BTC, which is a change from the relative underperformance throughout 2023.
On the other hand, the aggregate Altcoin market cap has not experienced the same performance, with YTD growth being less than half of the two majors.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain 👇
glassno.de/4bUAXaW
We can see that the total volume of Bitcoin LTH Supply held in loss is currently 777.8k BTC, and is trending towards the zero bound as prices rise. Just 6.5% of the aggregate LTH supply is therefore held in loss.
Previous instances where the LTH cohort held a similar coin volume in loss corresponds with early bull market conditions (with 2019 as an arguable outlier).
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3wfrElD
With Bitcoin breaking through the $52K region, the Short-Term Holder cohort responded by locking in a Net Realized Profit / Loss of +$647M, the largest since the 2021 all-time high formation.
For further information regarding Short-Term Holder Capital Flows, please visit our Dashboard below 👇
https://glassno.de/43OgVKg
Explore the latest in our February 2024 Finance Bridge: Insights on Bitcoin ETF approvals, stablecoin growth, and crypto volatility trends. Learn how these factors influence capital flows and trading strategies in the evolving market. Dive into our analysis for essential data on Ethereum's performance, market momentum, and actionable strategies for traders. A must-read for those trading and investing in the digital asset market at professional and institutional levels.
Read the full analysis here: https://glassno.de/3HX4rae
The Week On-Chain 06 ,2024
Bitcoin investors have been rewarded for their patience and conviction, with BTC prices rallying to multi-year highs above $50k. The volume of supply held at a loss is also thinning quickly, with just 13% falling into this category.
Executive Summary
- Long-Term Holders have spend approximately 300k BTC since their supply peaked in Nov 2023. Just over half of these reflect GBTC outflow volumes.
- With the market trading at multi-year highs above $50k, the volume of supply held in loss is thinning out, reaching just 13% of the global total.
- The ETF sell-the-news correction in Jan-Feb has many characteristics of a classic 'bull market correction' through the lens of Short-Term Holders.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyse SOPR Momentum:
- SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) serves as a quick indicator, providing immediate insights into market changes by tracking profits or losses from spent coins, contrasting with slower-moving unrealized profit and loss metrics.
- SOA (Spent Output Age Bands) offers early warnings of shifts in profitability and market sentiment, relating closely to SOPR and comparing short-term to long-term averages for insight.
- Together, SOPR and SOA reveal market momentum by showing how profit-taking rates and demand balance each other, influencing trends and market stability.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmuvpTzcTFo&t=36s
Assessing Risk in a Bitcoin Bull
On-chain data provides both investors and analysts with a plethora of new tools to diagnose and assess the state of the chain from a multitude of viewpoints. In this article, we produce a new framework for assessing the degree of market risk across various data categories.
Executive Summary
-In this article, we introduce a new Risk Assessment framework which utilizes a suite of core on-chain instruments covering both Short-Term and Long-Term risk cycles.
- Equipped with this new framework, we aim to provide investors and analysts alike with a robust model for assessing drawdown risk from a data-driven standpoint.
- In conclusion, we compile all metrics considered into a heatmap to assess the confluence of risk across a variety of data categories.
Discover more in our latest research article.
Bitcoin Transfer Volumes remain extremely robust with around $7.7B/day in economic volume processed.
However, an elevated presence of large size entities can be observed, with the average Volume per Entity soaring to value of $25.8k/transaction.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3SjCBtJ