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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyze SOPR Variants:
- Analysis shows sell pressure from long-term holders and GBTC intensifies as Bitcoin surpasses previous highs, following a cyclical pattern.
- SOPR metrics reveal the profit or loss on coins spent, highlighting a surge in profit-taking, especially by long-term holders during the current cycle.
- The entry of new liquidity through ETFs and media attention leads to accelerated profit-taking, with SOPR metrics peaking, indicating key moments of market tops and transitions.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXSExzZbY7E&t=2s
Assessing the Bitcoin Short-Term Holders, we can see that their Profit / Loss ratio remains well within a profit dominated regime, with profit taking outsizing losses by 50x.
Regular retests of the equilibrium level of 1.0 suggests that profits are being absorbed, and investors are generally defending their cost basis during corrections.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3VLKLOH
The Week On-Chain 14, 2024
As the Bitcoin Spot Price consolidates below the new ATH of $73k, the Long-Term Holder cohort has entered their distribution phase, selling to new investors at higher prices. This represents an injection of new capital into the asset class, driving the realized cap up to new heights.
Executive Summary
- Capital continues to flow into Bitcoin, with the Realized Cap rising to a new high of $540B, and seeing rates of capital inflow into the asset now exceeding $79B/month.
- The transfer of wealth from Long-Term Holders back to new demand is accelerating, with over 44% of the network wealth now owned by coins aged less than 3 months old.
- Profit taking continues to dominate investor behavior, with both the Long and Short-Term Holder cohorts taking chips off the table. Overall profit dominance is however shifting towards the Long-Term Holders.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
If we index the Bitcoin price performance (black) since the April 2021 ATH (where we argue bear market sentiment set in), we can see a remarkable similarity to the prior cycle (blue).
By both duration and distance from the April 2021 peak, the market is in a near identical spot to December 2020 relative to the 2018-21 cycle.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇
https://glassno.de/496ld1S
Following the break above the ATH, the Bitcoin market had reached a statistically significant level with respect to Unrealized profit held within the supply.
Past instances have historically been points of interest, where the market finds a degree of resistance, and some investors start to take profits and chips off the table.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇
https://glassno.de/496ld1S
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyze Bull Market Corrections:
- Recent bull markets have experienced shallower corrections than earlier ones, indicating strong buy-side pressure and limited selling.
- The market's spot-driven nature and ETF contributions in the current cycle mirror those of the 2016-2017 cycle, aiding in understanding present market behavior.
- Events like the halving influence investor actions, but despite potential sell-offs, the market has demonstrated resilience with shallow corrections, pointing to continued demand and support.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmDOJlzSKnc&t=2s
Roll-up solutions have gained popularity over the last 2 years, with the two major scaling solutions, Arbitrum and Optimism, seeing usage increase by up to 150k, and 100k daily active addresses, respectively.
Meanwhile, Ethereum's mainnet still has the largest activity count, with more than 400k active addresses per day.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/4cp3cii
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyse Realized Cap HODL Waves:
- Realized Cap HODL Waves offer insights into market cyclical behavior by focusing on the USD value of Bitcoin's age bands, providing an economically relevant perspective beyond traditional HODL Waves.
- This method excludes less economically meaningful data, such as stationary old coins, to emphasize the supply actively involved in market dynamics.
- Realized Cap HODL Waves uncover wealth transfer patterns from long-term holders to new buyers across market cycles, showcasing shifts in the economically active Bitcoin supply.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGZmZQMs4qE
We're offering a status update on our Bitcoin Risk Assessment Framework, a tool for discretionary traders to gauge market sentiment and underlying risk.
Want to discover all the metrics in our Risk Assessment Dashboard? https://glassno.de/48c6bXT
The Week On-Chain 11, 2024
Bitcoin has broken to its fourth cycle all-time-high, rallying above $72k, and pushing sentiment one step closer to Euphoria. The classic wealth transfer from the HODLer cohort to speculators is now well underway, with significant upticks in spot profit taking, and demand for futures leverage.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken to a new ATH of $72k relative to the US Dollar, entering price discovery, and pushing investor sentiment closer to Euphoria.
- Numerous metrics indicate a striking similarity to past ATH breaks, where a wealth transfer from old HODLers to new investors and speculators is well underway.
- Realized profit metrics and futures funding rates have also spiked to significantly positive levels, suggesting elevated profit taking and demand for long side leverage.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyse Bitcoin's Quarterly, Monthly and Weekly Price Performance:
- Simultaneous gains exceeding 20% in quarterly, monthly, and weekly performance metrics are rare, typically marking euphoric market stages observed in significant uptrends like 2019 and 2021.
- Recent days with all three metrics surpassing the 20% gain threshold suggest the market is entering a euphoric phase, especially as it approaches previous all-time highs.
- Surpassing all-time highs usually attracts widespread attention, potentially expanding the investor base, especially with new factors like ETFs influencing the market.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXmBvPTi3Cs
How can Bitcoin network usage data help you spot early signs of positive market momentum? Find out in our latest checklist designed for traders looking to capitalize on Bitcoin's fluctuations.
Analyze key indicators of network health and transaction dynamics with our four-step checklist for additional insights on strategic entry points and trend validation.
Key Insights to Discover:
- Anticipate market peaks and potential corrections by monitoring Bitcoin transaction counts and fee pressures.
- Find out how increased blockspace demand and heightened transactional activity can provide insight into BTC price movements.
- Identify early bullish trends and optimal entry points by analyzing
on-chain data on new addresses and active entities.
Download the checklist here: https://glassno.de/3Tf8vYS
The Week On-Chain 10, 2024
Bitcoin continues to surprise the market, with its recent rally pushing towards all-time-highs, even prior to the upcoming halving event. In this report, we assess how the demand inflows from the US Spot ETFs are interacting with the supply being released by Long-Term Holders taking profits.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin prices are attacking the ATH once again, taking the market by surprise, and rallying with strength even prior to the widely anticipated halving event.
- We have seen a sudden spike in the average transaction size interacting with Coinbase, which highlights the size and scale of new institutional capital entering Bitcoin.
- Long-Term Holders have started to ramp up their distribution pressure, hitting spending rates of 257k BTC/month, with GBTC accounting for 57% of these volumes.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.
With the Bitcoin halving just about 47 days away, Glassnode has lined up a wealth of insightful content for the coming weeks, suitable for both newcomers to this market as well as experienced digital asset investors. Our introductory article offers context and overview of the halving's effect on the market dynamics. It addresses trading strategies, market cycles, and mining companies operations post-halving.
Read it to get up to speed with all the relevant information on how to navigate the upcoming changes. 👇
https://glassno.de/48FoULL
Today we're sharing a video walkthrough of our Bitcoin market risk framework, created as a tool for discretionary traders to assess the probability of a BTC correction. In the video, we explain the purpose of the framework and how you can incorporate it in your risk management strategies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFVI3vKvkUE
Want to checkout all the metrics in our Risk Assessment Dashboard? Click here: https://glassno.de/3UYYz82
Assessing the Bitcoin Long-Term Holders, we can see their Realized Profit / Loss Ratio has gone exponential and vertical.
This a result of there being no LTHs in Loss when the market has only recently broken above the previous cycles ATH, and is further fuelled by a significant uptick in LTH profit taking.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3VLKLOH
If we segregate the Bitcoin Realized Cap for coin-ages younger than 3 months, we can see a sharp increase over recent months, with these newer investors now owning ~44% of the aggregate network wealth.
This uptick in younger coins is a direct result of Long-Term Holders spending their coins at higher prices to satisfy the wave of inflowing demand.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3VLKLOH
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyze Supply Cluster Heatmap:
- The heatmap shows older coins activate at all-time high breaks, indicating long-term holders distribute as newer coins enter the market.
- All-time high breaks trigger long-term holders to shift from accumulation to distribution, marking the euphoria phase with more supply in circulation.
- Long-term holder activity at all-time high breaks consistently signals key market phases, from the start of euphoria to potential peaks and turning points.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CQd3xdud20
With the Bitcoin halving around 24 days away, we explore how the behavior of Long-Term Holders—a cohort of mature investors holding a significant majority of the supply—affects Bitcoin's macro supply and market dynamics.
Find out more below: 👇
https://glassno.de/49cZ5TG
The Week On-Chain 13, 2024
As the Bitcoin market hits resistance at a new ATH of $73k, the Long-Term Holder cohort have ramped up their overall distribution pressure. The market is currently seeing over $2.6B/day in realized profit, as investors start to take chips off the table.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin prices have pulled back -15.4% from the new $73k ATH, reaching as low as $61k. This price action aligns very closely with the prior 2018-21 cycle.
- Several on-chain indicators have flagged an uptick in profit taking events, with over $2.6B in realized profit taken as the market reached resistance.
- The overall Bitcoin market has several similarities to prior ATH breakouts, specifically related to distribution pressure by the Long-Term Holder cohort.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.
With the Bitcoin halving about 30 days away, our latest article examines its implications for directional traders, particularly considering its interplay with the new market dynamics introduced by the ETFs.
Discover how to adapt your strategies for the upcoming market changes: 👇
https://glassno.de/49cZ5TG
The Week On-Chain 12, 2024
The Dencun upgrade has activated successfully, introducing a new architecture for Layer-2 solutions to anchor into the mainchain. It also introduces modifications to the staking pool. Both could impact Ethereum's monetary policy.
Executive Summary
- The Dencun Upgrade on Ethereum introduces new data storage capacities, aimed at reducing fee costs of its Layer-2 scaling solutions.
- The upgrade also implements a fixed limit for entering validators to manage the growth of the validator set and maintain efficient node communication.
- This change could influence Ethereum's monetary policy by reducing the rate of new Ethereum issuance. This could potentially lead to a decrease in the Ethereum supply.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.
The transfer of wealth from mature investors to new demand is in effect, with the proportion of wealth held by 'Young coins' (moved within the last 3-months), increasing by 138% since October 2023.
This reflects a net expenditure by longer-term investors who had previously held their coins for at least 3-months.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
glassno.de/3V8bvbY
The Bitcoin Realized Cap is currently increasing at a rate of $54B/month, approaching levels last seen during the run-up in early 2021.
This highlights just how significant the capital inflows have been for Bitcoin, driven in part by the tremendous success and demand for the new US ETF products.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇
https://glassno.de/3V8bvbY
We're launching the first video walkthrough for our Bitcoin Momentum Traders Checklist series. Aimed at maximizing value for our Glassnode professional and institutional clients, each checklist will be explored in its own video.
Today's video analyses focuses on the Supply Dynamics Checklist and shows how tracking changes in supply can help spot major price trends ahead of time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0i_XAWwa5o
Make sure to download the checklist here: https://glassno.de/download-checklist
One way to gauge the profitability of the market for any specific cohorts of Bitcoin investors is to leverage their on-chain cost basis and compare it with the spot price.
🔵 Long-Term Holders = $20.7K
🔴 Short-Term Holders = $45.8K
🟠Market Realized Price = $24.4K
With price trading at $68k, the long-term holders are, on average, sitting on an unrealized profit of ~228%.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3wD4W78
As Bitcoin's pushing past its previous cycle high, the latest Finance Bridge report analyses evolving investor strategies, the surge in speculative asset interest, and the influence of ETFs on market dynamics. We also delve into Bitcoin halving's market implications and provide a status update on our recent market momentum and risk assessment exploratory frameworks. A must-read for those trading and investing in the digital asset market at professional and institutional levels.
Read the full analysis here: https://glassno.de/48MPbHU
It is crucial for directional traders to understand the dynamics of Bitcoin's price post-halving, which impacts scarcity, market cycles, demand, and mining profitability. To learn more about the ramifications of the halving, click here: https://glassno.de/48FoULL
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In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyse Bitcoin ETF Flows:
- Bitcoin ETFs, notably from BlackRock and Fidelity, have experienced strong inflows, indicating robust investor interest despite a decrease in GBTC's peak holdings.
- BlackRock and Fidelity's Bitcoin ETFs have recorded unprecedented 30-day inflows, marking a significant milestone in cryptocurrency adoption and investment.
- The slowing of GBTC outflows, coupled with high net inflows into other Bitcoin ETFs, suggests a shift in investor preference towards newer, regulated ETF offerings.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzyi0927_Xg&t=1s
Our ETF Spot metric shows that the total balance held by US ETFs has soared past 760,000 BTC, with GBTC making up the lions share, followed by Blackrock. https://glassno.de/49WPell
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