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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
5808 days since Satoshi Nakamoto mined Block 1, the price for a single Bitcoin has reached $100K. What a journey it has been!
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While #Bitcoin consolidates with temporary dips to the lower end of the $90K range, SOPR Momentum - a key measure of how the market responds to profit and loss pressures - continues to accelerate, indicating positive sentiment.
See the live chart here: https://glassno.de/3ZnUpqW
#BTC's SOPR Momentum assesses the average profit and loss magnitude of daily transactions, excluding internal transfers and self-spends. Using a fast/slow momentum crossover strategy, it identifies periods of heightened profit-taking relative to a longer-term baseline.
SOPR Momentum is a key component of #Bitcoin’s On-Chain Momentum Signal - Glassnode's proprietary framework to form data-driven views on market trends as they unfold. You can view its current status here: https://glassno.de/3ZmRW04
➡️Discover the other metrics in this signal and how they can guide market decisions: https://glassno.de/41cENJv
After hitting an all-time high at $99.4K, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $92K and $98K this past week.
Daily realized profits to exchanges have cooled off significantly, now at $277M/day. This represents a 42% drop from the peak of $481M/day on Nov 16.
This sharp decline signals reduced profit-taking activity, suggesting the market has entered a consolidation phase.
See the chart: https://glassno.de/49jwGg8
During the recent rally to $99.4K, Long-Term Holders’ Net Position Change dropped to -366K BTC/month, marking the highest selling pressure since April 2024. This signals significant profit-taking by LTHs, but it's important to examine which sub-groups within LTHs contributed to this.
Looking closer, 6m-12m holders led the activity, spending 25.6K BTC/day (7D-MA). Their cost basis, estimated at $57.9K (71% below market price), explains the incentive to capitalize on the rally. This aligns with natural behavior for intra-cycle holders like ETF-related buyers from earlier this year.
Key takeaway: Most selling pressure came from buyers in the $50K–$60K range, indicating intra-cycle LTHs drove profit-taking. There was minimal sell-off by OG long-term holders, whose behavior typically signals deeper shifts in market sentiment.
BTC Long-Term Holder Net Position Change chart: https://t.co/hr64gBGUCd
BTC Spent Volume in Profit by Age chart: glassno.de/3CF66lA
BTC SOPR by Age chart: glassno.de/3ATrqmP
We're excited to launch our Black Friday offer! Until Cyber Monday, you can enjoy 30% off the Glassnode Advanced Annual Subscription. Gain deeper insights into Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, TRON, and hundreds of ERC-20 tokens, including DOGE and PEPE. Offer ends 3rd December. Claim your discount here: https://glassno.de/3AX9bgb
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The Week On-Chain 46, 2024
Bitcoin’s rally to a new ATH is driven by strong spot demand and institutional inflows, with over 95% of supply in profit. This article explores on-chain indicators, highlighting robust spot buying momentum, rising ETF AUM, futures premiums, and the potential for sustained gains in this ATH phase.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin’s rally to a new ATH highlights strong demand in spot markets over perpetual futures.
- Institutional inflows surged post-U.S. elections, driven by spot ETFs and CME futures as cash-and-carry strategies gain traction.
- The ATH phase sees over 95% of supply in profit, signaling unique market dynamics.
- On-chain cost basis bands reveal strong demand as price nears key levels.
- Realized profits are up, but remain below previous ATH peaks, suggesting potential for further growth.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 45, 2024
In the wake of the highly anticipated US Presidential Election, Bitcoin has broken to a new ATH of $75.4k. Under the surface, volatility continues to brew across option markets while on-chain capital inflows continue to expand, suggesting a persistent inflow of new demand.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken to a new ATH of $75.4k, sparked by the high likelihood of President Trump winning the US election.
- Capital inflows into the Bitcoin asset continue to grow, suggesting a persistent inflow of new demand.
- Profit-taking activities have seen a non-trivial increase, while losses realized remain negligible. However, both values are relatively modest compared to volumes seen around market extremes.
- Options markets are pricing in higher volatility expectations as investors hedge their positions in both directions.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 43, 2024
The Bitcoin spot price has continued to march higher, trading up to $69k, only 6.8% below the ATH. The price uptick has broken through several critical levels using technical and on-chain inputs. This is one of the first signs of positive price momentum since late June.
Executive Summary
- The Bitcoin spot price has briefly rallied above $69k after successfully clearing several significant technical and on-chain pricing levels.
- From an On-chain perspective, all sub-age-groups within the Short-Term Holder cohort now hold an unrealized profit, likely a tailwind for market sentiment.
- However, speculation in futures markets is increasing, with open interest surging to new ATHs and a non-trivial portion attributed to the cash and carry basis trade.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Join us on October 22nd at 4 PM EST for an exclusive webinar featuring Glassnode Analyst James Check and Coinbase Institutional Head of Research David Duong.
In this session, James and David will provide a comprehensive analysis from the latest Guide to Crypto Markets, equipping you with actionable insights to navigate the current market environment. Key topics will include:
1. The growth of Layer 2s and how it impacts ether and the Ethereum ecosystem.
2. The rise in stablecoin volume and what it signals for the broader crypto market.
3. What to watch for ahead of, and after, the US election.
Don’t miss this opportunity to gain a holistic view of the evolving digital asset landscape. Seats are limited—secure your spot today: https://glassno.de/4f6rFJC
The Week On-Chain 42, 2024
A notable divergence between supply and demand is emerging, with the market being range-bound for over seven months. With low volumes across on-chain and futures markets and a HODLer-dominated environment, the scene is set for heightened volatility in the near future.
Executive Summary
- The demand side of the market has declined notably since the March ATH, with investor attention thinning as the market chops sideways within this price range.
- On the supply side, available coins are also constricting, with several measures of ‘active supply’ compressing to relatively low levels.
- Historically, tightness in the Bitcoin supply side has been a precursor for a regime of heightened volatility.
- It often describes an equilibrium being reached between the wealth held by new demand and existing HODLers, which tends not to last for very long.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 41, 2024
Following a 10% price correction, the Bitcoin market has rebounded back to the $63k level, in an attempt to reclaim the critical Short-Term Holder cost-basis.
Executive Summary
- Bull Market Drawdowns remain relatively shallow but in line with historical bull market uptrends. This highlights both the similarities and the relative resiliency of the current cycle.
- Both Short-Term Holder positioning and their spending behaviour have largely improved as the spot price attempts to reclaim the Short-Term Holder cost-basis at $62.5k.
- A significant amount of Futures Open Interest remains in place, which may expose the market to deleveraging and liquidation cascades if significant volatility breaks out.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 40, 2024
For the first time since the ATH, Bitcoin has established a new technical higher high, as price bounced into the $66k region. Alongside this, there is a multitude of critical on-chain metrics that have also set higher highs, making this an interesting moment in time.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin’s cyclical price performance shows a striking similarity across the last three cycles, with the index at nearly the same position.
- Long-term Holders holding BTC in loss have risen, as coins bought near the $73k ATH pass the 155-day mark.
- However, the unrealized loss for these investors is minimal, indicating little financial pressure on portfolios.
- Short-Term Holder profitability has improved in the recent rally, bringing relief to recent buyers.
- US ETF investors’ conviction remains strong, with only minor sell-side pressure despite being below their average inflow cost.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
We’re excited to announce that Glassnode will be speaking at Digital Asset Week in London next week, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. Our Chief Commercial Officer, Daniel Blackmore, will be participating in a fireside chat on the transformative power of on-chain analytics at 14:15 on the 3rd of October.
He will be interviewed by Alon Goren, co-founder at Draper Goren Blockchain. The event focuses on the institutional adoption of digital assets, bridging the gap between Traditional Finance and Digital Assets.
Please contact us at sales@glassnode.com if you would like to meet Dan. We look forward to seeing you there!
The Week On-Chain 38, 2024
The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a period of stagnation, with both demand and supply sides showing signs of inactivity. The market is characterized by minimal capital inflows and outflows, as the stagnant Realized Cap indicates.
Executive Summary
- Market demand-side remains lacklustre for digital assets, with the magnitude of both capital inflows and outflows remaining small in scale.
- HODLing remains the primary investor dynamic, with all measures of actively tradable supply declining and large volumes of coins maturing into Long-Term Holder status.
- Price action has been remarkably stagnant over the past six months, driving all variants of the Sell-Side Risk Ratio to low levels, suggesting an expectation for higher volatility ahead.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 37, 2024
The competitiveness of the Mining landscape and their conviction in the Bitcoin Network continues to rise, with the Hash Rate blasting towards new ATHs. However, investors remain unconvinced in the short term, with exchange-related on-chain volumes beginning to languish.
Executive Summary
- Hash Rate remains just shy of ATHs, as continued investment by Miners demonstrates immense conviction in the Bitcoin Network despite depressed revenues.
- Investor interactions with exchanges are in decline, with contracting volumes across the board, suggesting there is a diminished appetite for investors and trade.
- Both the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are exhibiting outflows, however, investor interest in the Bitcoin ETFs remain significantly larger in scale and magnitude.
Read more in The Week On-Chain Newsletter
#Bitcoin's rally to the $99.4K ATH moved investor holdings to extreme profit levels, resulting in a sharp redistribution of supply.
With several risk metrics elevated, are we approaching a turning point? Our latest Week On-Chain explores the data: https://glassno.de/3VmOm4O
With the number of active addresses currently at around 751K, BNB Chain's active address momentum is ramping up.
Active address momentum is defined as a crossover between short- and long-term averages of the metric. Typically, it indicates an expansion in onchain activity, improving fundamentals and growing network utilization.
However, BNB's active addresses are still well below the 2021 peak of ~1.5M, suggesting potential for further growth: https://glassno.de/49k9YEM
Curious about what’s happening on other major blockchains? Assess asset fundamentals for SOL, TON, TRON, and more with Glassnode Studio. Analyze active accounts, transaction volumes, and fees across leading ecosystems: https://glassno.de/4ijXbWL
The Week On-Chain 48, 2024
Following a flurry of consistent new ATHs, Bitcoin is just a stone's throw away from reaching a price of $100k per coin. Explosive price action tends to result in a significant increase in the unrealized profit of holders, and Long-Term Holders are ramping up their distribution in response.
Executive Summary
- As the Bitcoin price rallied towards $100k, Long-Term Holders commenced distributing over 507k BTC, which remains less than the 934k BTC sell-side during the March rally but is significant nonetheless.
- Long-term holders are locking in sizeable profit volumes, setting a new ATH of $2.02B in daily realized profit.
- When assessing the composition of which entities are spending, the majority of this sell-side pressure appears to originate from coins aged between 6 months and 1 year.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
During the recent rally to $99.4K, Long-Term Holders’ Net Position Change dropped to -366K BTC/month, marking the highest selling pressure since April 2024. This signals significant profit-taking by LTHs, but it's important to examine which sub-groups within LTHs contributed to this.
Looking closer, 6m-12m holders led the activity, spending 25.6K BTC/day (7D-MA). Their cost basis, estimated at $57.9K (71% below market price), explains the incentive to capitalize on the rally. This aligns with natural behavior for intra-cycle holders like ETF-related buyers from earlier this year.
Key takeaway: Most selling pressure came from buyers in the $50K–$60K range, indicating intra-cycle LTHs drove profit-taking. There was minimal sell-off by OG long-term holders, whose behavior typically signals deeper shifts in market sentiment.
BTC Long-Term Holder Net Position Change chart: https://t.co/hr64gBGUCd
BTC Spent Volume in Profit by Age chart: glassno.de/3CF66lA
BTC SOPR by Age chart: glassno.de/3ATrqmP
The Week On-Chain 47, 2024
Bitcoin continues to relentlessly establish new ATHs, supported by robust capital inflows from both ETFs and the Spot Market, with over $62.9B entering the market over the last 30 days. As the market proceeds to heat up, Long-Term Holder spending begins to rise in tandem.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin’s rally to $93k has been fuelled by robust capital inflows from both ETFs, and spot markets. Over $62.9B has entered the market over the last 30 days, with BTC dominating the demand inflows.
- Elevated unrealized profits among long-term holders have triggered significant spending activity, with 128k BTC sold between 8-October and 13-November.
- U.S. Spot ETFs played a pivotal role, absorbing around 90% of the selling pressure from long-term holders over the analyzed period. This highlights the growing importance of the ETFs in maintaining liquidity, and stabilizing the market.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Glassnode is proud to announce a new collaboration with Fasanara Digital to bring you the Q4 2024 Digital Asset Report. Download the report here: https://glassno.de/4fmMYHq
Partnering with Fasanara Digital, which is known for its data-driven, scientific approach to trading, highlights the real-world utility of Glassnode’s on-chain data and expertise for strategic investment in digital assets. The report examines key trends shaping the bull market, including:
- Bitcoin’s growing position as a core asset in institutional portfolios.
- Unprecedented futures activity reflecting deeper liquidity and reduced volatility.
- Shifts in capital flow that point to asset allocation trends altseason.
For institutional investors, this report offers a strategic foundation for navigating the bull market as it unfolds. Learn more on Glassnode Insights blog: https://glassno.de/3Z55v5r
Solana recently saw a massive spike in on-chain transfer volume, reaching approximately $224 billion in a single day - almost three times the market cap of SOL at $76B! This surge was apparently driven by a single wallet controlling multiple accounts, likely operated by a bot. The increase in fees that many noticed recently can likely be traced back to this activity.
Now, with the first stage of Solana support live on Glassnode, you can dive into similar insights. Access essential metrics like address activity and transfer volume to explore Solana’s network dynamics. More metrics will be coming soon as part of our multi-chain expansion.
Explore the full list of new Solana metrics: https://glassno.de/48Dhri0
Last night, David Duong, Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional, and our Lead Analyst, James Check, hosted an insightful webinar, highlighting key takeaways from our Q4 Guide to Crypto Markets.
A big thank you to all the institutional participants who joined us. If you missed it, you can access the recording here: https://glassno.de/3YdZ8Lr
The Q4 2024 Guide to Crypto Markets by Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional is here! Despite range-bound prices, significant trends have been unfolding beneath the surface.
Download the full report here: https://glassno.de/3Y0y1De
- Liquidity is surging as markets deepen and institutions take a stronger position.
- On-chain activity rise shows the growing utility of blockchain in real-world applications.
- The continued engagement with spot ETFs shows institutional investors remain committed to these assets.
Get the full analysis in the report.
TRON metrics are now live on Glassnode! Track TRON’s network fundamentals, fund flows, and investor sentiment with your favourite Glassnode metrics, including:
- Total & New Addresses
- Realized Price & Realized Cap
- MVRV & HODL Waves
- TRX Supply Distribution by Wallet Size
Explore these and other metrics today and use the data to gain a better understanding of TRON on-chain activity and performance.
Start with this Dashboard to get an overview: https://glassno.de/3ZZdRMD
We are excited to share that Glassnode’s Chief Commercial Officer, Daniel Blackmore, will be speaking at The Digital Asset Conference, hosted by Fasanara Digital in London, between the 7th - 8th of November.
This event will bring together traditional financial institutions and companies at the forefront of innovation in the digital asset industry.
Daniel will be moderating the panel discussion, “Breaking Boundaries: How Asset Tokenization is Reshaping Global Markets,” at 13:40 on 8th November. Joining him on the panel are Max Boonen, Founder and CEO at PV01, and Ricardo Correia, Partner at Bain & Company.
For those attending, feel free to contact us at sales@glassnode.com.
We look forward to connecting with you!
The Week On-Chain 39, 2024
In the wake of the Federal Reserve's 0.5% interest rate cut, Bitcoin has reclaimed the Short-Term Holder cost basis of ~$61.9k. This rally could achieve technical significance if the price also holds above the 200-day moving average at $63.9k.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has reclaimed the Short-Term Holder cost basis ($61.9k) and 200DMA ($63.9k) following a 0.50% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
- Short-term holders are under marginally less pressure as prices rise above their cost basis, after a period of net capital outflows.
- New investors show a degree of resilience, seen in realized losses being of a relatively small magnitude, suggesting confidence in the overall uptrend.
- The perpetual futures market displays a cautious recovery in sentiment, with gradually increasing demand but still below levels seen during strong bull markets.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Ethereum’s recent price surge, driven largely by speculative tokens, can seem chaotic. Glassnode’s new ERC-20 metrics - recently expanded by over 500 new assets - can help you make sense of this volatile market. Understand recent trends in this market with metrics giving you insights into profit and loss realization, speculator and long-term investor cost basis, or wealth distribution.
For three more weeks, get free access to all these metrics and assets, no matter your subscription plan. Use this time to get a clearer view of the market and hedge your bets more effectively. Start your analysis here: https://glassno.de/3BhgOOs
We're thrilled to announce the expansion of our analytics platform, which now supports over 500 new ERC-20 tokens! With this update, you can apply the same in-depth metrics from your Bitcoin analysis to a wide range of assets within the Ethereum ecosystem, helping you to formulate a comprehensive view of the market.
Our platform now features expanded coverage of key sectors in the ERC-20 landscape, including DeFi, AI-driven tokens, gaming, and staking. Seamlessly track asset fundamentals, capital flows, and sentiment across these sectors, all in one unified place.
Dive deeper into our ERC-20 token coverage in our latest article: https://glassno.de/4d9t28M
The Week On-Chain 36, 2024
The Bitcoin market continues to experience downwards pressure over recent months, despite the average Bitcoin investor remaining profitable overall. However, the Short-Term Holder cohort remains heavily underwater on their holdings, making them a source of risk for the time-being.
Executive Summary
- On average, BTC investors are holding relatively small unrealized losses compared to prior cycles, suggesting a relatively favourable position overall.
- However, Short-Term Holder unrealized losses remain quite elevated, indicating they are the primary cohort at risk.
- Profit and Loss taking activities remain remarkably light, with critical metrics such as the Sell-Side Risk Ratio alluding to a potential for heightened volatility in the near future.
Read more in The Week On-Chain Newsletter