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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
📊 Who is realizing the most losses in Bitcoin’s latest sell-off?
Between Feb 25-27, over $2.16B in realized losses came from the most recent market entrants.
We break down the losses by age cohorts, contrast with prior peaks, and assess the market impact:
🟠1d-1w cohort: $927M (42.85% of young cohort losses)
🟡1w-1m cohort: $678M (31.3%)
🟣1m-3m cohort: $257M (11.9%)
🔴24h cohort: $322M (14.0%)
Bottomline: The largest capitulations came from those who bought BTC within the past week (‼️)
In contrast, losses among those who held BTC for 3m-6m or longer remain negligible:
🔵3m-6m cohort: $6.5M (0.3% of young cohort losses)
🟢6m-12m cohort: $3.2M (0.15%)
This suggests that those who entered in H2 2024 or earlier are largely holding, while more recent buyers are exiting under pressure.
Across all cohorts, Feb 26 was still the largest single-day sell-off in months, with $1.13B in aggregate realized losses:
🔹Feb 3: $848M (-25%)
🔹Aug 6: $2.02B (+79%)
🔹July 5: $1.3B (+15%)
Realized Loss by Age chart.
📢 Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) now includes Ethereum, ERC-20, and SPL tokens!
Previously exclusive to Bitcoin, this innovative tool now provides a clearer view of investor positioning across multiple asset classes.
🔹 Identify key support and resistance levels 🔹 Track accumulation and distribution trends 🔹 Now fully accessible via the Glassnode API
Learn more in this dedicated article.
Explore the expanded dashboard.
The Week On-Chain - Week 07, 2025
Bitcoin is trading in the $93k-$97k range, leading to a wider digital asset market cooldown. Capital inflows are weakening, and derivatives activity is declining. Short-term holder accumulation patterns somewhat resemble May 2021, which was a relatively challenging set of market conditions.
Executive Summary
🔸After Bitcoin’s second attempt to break above $105k in late January, the market has entered a contraction phase, with monthly price momentum sharply declining across major assets.
🔸Solana has emerged as a market leader in capital inflows over the past two years, in contrast to Ethereum, which has comparatively struggled to attract sustained demand.
🔸Perpetual futures open interest has declined across Bitcoin (-11.1%), Ethereum (-23.8%), Solana (-6.2%), and Memecoins Index (-52.1%), reflecting a diminished appetite for leveraged speculation.
🔗Read the full report.
💡View all charts in this edition in The Week On-chain Dashboard.
Stablecoin circulating supply has increased by $16.97B since the start of 2025, rising from $194.2B to $211.2B. However, the pace of growth has varied, with a slowdown in early 2025 before picking up again in February.
Throughout November and December, stablecoins were growing by ~$450M per day. In January, the rate declined to ~$400M per day, but February has seen a rebound, with $541M per day. This suggests renewed liquidity expansion after a period of deceleration.
Momentum accelerated in mid-January as the 7-day average moved above the 30-day SMA, signaling increased short-term demand.
The Week On-Chain - Week 05, 2025
The regulatory environment surrounding Bitcoin is constantly changing, and new financial instruments such as derivatives and ETF products continue to develop. In this article, we analyze how the composition of digital asset investors is changing around it.
Executive Summary
🔸Bitcoin has evolved into a global asset with extremely deep liquidity, available 24/7, allowing investors to express their macroeconomic views even when traditional markets are closed.
🔸Bitcoin continues to prove itself as both a store of value asset, accruing over $850B in net capital inflows, and a medium of exchange asset, processing nearly $9B in economic volume per day.
🔸Multipple metrics show new demand remains elevated but is well below previous cycle peaks.
🔸Institutional investors are growing, reducing drawdown severity and compressing volatility over time.
🔗Read the full report.
💡View all charts in this edition in The Week On-chain Dashboard.
BTC balances on exchanges drop - does this mean we're in for a supply squeeze?
Not exactly. While exchange balances have fallen to 2.7M BTC (from 3.1M BTC in July 2024), most of this decline isn’t due to investor withdrawals but a shift in market structure.
📌 Key facts:
🔹The drop coincides with the launch of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.
🔹8 of 11 ETFs use Coinbase custody, meaning coins are moving from exchange wallets to institutional custodians.
🔹Glassnode classifies both under the ‘Coinbase entity’, impacting balance readings.
When adjusting for non-Coinbase ETFs (FBTC, HODL), the combined holdings of exchanges + ETF wallets remain around 3M BTC - the same level as January 2024.
Bottom line: The decline in exchange balances reflects a shift in asset custody rather than a net reduction in available supply.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain
Institutional capital flows, stablecoin dominance, and the rise of Layer-2s - these were the key forces shaping the digital asset markets over the past few months.
Our latest Guide to Crypto Markets, produced in collaboration with Coinbase Institutional, provides a comprehensive analysis of Q1 2025:
📌 Bitcoin ETFs saw record inflows, yet supply dynamics shifted as long-term holders took profits near all-time highs.
📌 Ethereum’s Layer-2 ecosystem expanded rapidly, with transactions up 41% in Q4 as users migrated to lower-cost environments.
📌 Stablecoins solidified their dominance, with supply surging 18% - reinforcing their role as a foundational liquidity layer for crypto markets.
The report equips institutional investors with a data-driven framework for navigating market structure, derivatives, liquidity trends, and onchain activity.
Download the full Q1 report here.
Bitcoin dominance is climbing again
After bottoming in December 2024 at ~54%, BTC dominance has surged past 57% in January 2025.
This mirrors the 2020 cycle, where BTC dominance bottomed in Nov '20 (~60%), then rallied to 69% in Jan '21 before starting to decline again.
In the last cycle, Bitcoin dominance peaked near 72%. Shortly after, BTC hit ~$40K - over 2x its prior cycle's ATH - but still far from the eventual $64K top. Dominance began dropping as BTC's price soared, signalling a shift in risk appetite toward riskier assets.
View Major Asset Dominance 📈
At the moment, $125K marks the current upper limit of Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) price action in bull market conditions, derived from an optimized framework using the STH cost basis ($88,517) as the baseline.
This approach accounts for Bitcoin’s evolving market conditions and shows that, in previous cycles, Bitcoin did not top before reaching this upper band - though it sometimes exceeded it temporarily.
In March 2024, the market tagged this level intra-cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin trades at $105,094 - 18.7% above the STH cost basis and well within bullish norms. However, if the price drops below $88,517, unrealized losses could trigger increased sell-side pressure.
Key thresholds for STHs:
- $125,653: Current upper band (bull market extremes).
- $88,517: Average cost basis.
- $68,549: Lower band (bear market lows).
As the STH cost basis rises, the upper band will adjust dynamically. Explore this chart here: https://glassno.de/4arR3bq
🔍 Optimizing Bitcoin MVRV Ratio for Refined Insights
Bitcoin’s market maturity is reflected in the declining peak values of its MVRV ratio, one of the key metrics for navigating market cycles:
🔹 2011: 8.07x
🔹 2014: 6.00x
🔹 2018: 4.81x
🔹 2021: 3.98x
🔹 2024: 2.78x (to date).
This trend highlights reduced volatility and speculative intensity as Bitcoin scales.
However, identifying actionable insights amid these diminishing peaks requires a more advanced approach.
At Glassnode, we’ve refined the MVRV Z-Score with optimized rolling windows, providing a more dynamic approach to analyzing market turning points.
Our latest analysis offers:
🔸Improved frameworks to navigate Bitcoin’s evolving market structure.
🔸Clearer thresholds for identifying bullish and bearish phases.
🔸Practical insights for institutional decision-making.
Explore how these insights can inform your strategy in our latest Week On-Chain.
As of January 13, 2025, stablecoin inflows have nearly stalled, with the market cap stabilizing at $189.1B and the 30-day net change down to +0.56%.
This marks a stark contrast to the November to December 2024 rally, when $27.35B in inflows (+16.9%) drove BTC from $67.8K to $106.1K (+56.5%), reaching a +10.67% 30-day net change at its peak.
By comparison, the January to March 2024 rally added $14.68B (+11.5%) in stablecoin liquidity, as BTC surged +74.5% to $69.5K. The fact that the late-2024 rally required almost 2x the capital inflow for a smaller price gain underscores the speculative demand and liquidity-driven momentum that has since cooled.
In total, $65B entered the space via stablecoins in 2024 - an amount comparable to the annual GDP of Lithuania.
Explore Stablecoins Aggregated Market Cap Percentage Change chart.
The U.S. Department of Justice is cleared to sell 69,000 BTC - worth over $6 billion.
With Glassnode, you can track government-held Bitcoin wallets and estimate the potential market impact if this kind of sell-side pressure occurs.
Putting it in perspective
In July 2024, the German government sold 56,000 BTC, but instead of collapsing, the market rallied from $53k to $68k.
However, past large inflows have had different results:
🔸 March 2021: 70.5k BTC inflows, NUPL at 0.72 (Euphoria/Greed)—short correction, then recovery.
🔹 June 2022: 68.7k BTC inflows, NUPL at 0.21 (Capitulation)—a prolonged bear market followed.
Bottom line: Market reactions depend heavily on where we are in the cycle.
With Glassnode’s US Government Balance metric, you can set alerts to be notified when coins move - helping you stay ahead of potential sell-offs.
🔗 Check it out: https://glassno.de/40ccXL7
The AI Agent sector is emerging as an important driver in the crypto market, but volatility remains a defining feature. Glassnode's Profitability Map offers insights to help you identify which assets have high profitability and whether profits are being realized—a potential indicator of market shifts.
Key Insights:
🔹VIRTUAL: Profitability at 2.00 with moderate profit-taking (0.58) indicates a heating phase where investors may begin locking in larger gains.
🔹PAAL: Profitability at 1.06 with moderate profit-taking (0.55) suggests cooling sentiment, with holders cautious about securing returns.
🔹PHA: Profitability of 0.90 but with significant profit-taking (1.17), indicating an increased desire to lock in profits.
🔹BOTTO: Heating up at 0.95 profitability and low profit-taking (0.27), showing a trend of investors holding rather than cashing out.
Get a deeper look at the broader market with our Profitability Dashboard: glassno.de/3DKybIx
The STH MVRV ratio for Bitcoin currently sits at 1.1, indicating that short-term holders are, on average, 10% in profit. This metric helps gauge the sentiment of recent market entrants, who tend to be more speculatively minded and react quickly to price volatility.
This year, the MVRV ratio for STHs peaked at 1.44 in March, dropped below 0.8 in September marking a local bottom, and reached the high of 1.35 in November.
It often pays off to watch the neutral level of 1 as it tends to act as support during uptrends but can flip to resistance if decisively broken, signaling a shift in sentiment.
In terms of price, the MVRV of 1.0 currently corresponds to a short-term holder cost basis of $87K. According to Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) data, there is an "air pocket" of demand between $87K and $71K. This potentially makes the $87K a make-or-break level for the short-term price action.
🔗 Relevant Charts:
STH MVRV Indicator: https://glassno.de/3Pp4BLn
Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Data: https://glassno.de/cbd
1/ Cost Basis Distribution (CBD): A Key Insight for Investors
CBD measures the total Bitcoin supply held by addresses with an average cost basis within specific price ranges.
Key Observations:
- A dense cluster of supply exists between $88.1K-$103K.
- Since mid-December, we've been hovering near the lower band ($88.1K).
$98K buyers remain notably resilient despite market fluctuations.
- This region acts as a critical zone of interest for price action.
📊 https://glassno.de/4iWs04a
2/ The Air Gap: $70K-$88.1K
Above the dense cluster lies an "Air Gap" between $70K-$88.1K – an area with significantly lower supply concentration.
📉 Implication:
If the market enters a prolonged price contraction phase, this zone could act as a bottom discovery region, attracting new buyers eager to accumulate Bitcoin at a relative discount.
Keep a close eye on these levels—they hold the key to market resilience or deeper corrections.
📊 https://glassno.de/4iWs04a
The Week On-Chain, Week 08, 2025
Bybit’s historic $1.48B hack triggered panic withdrawals and a market-wide sell-off, pushing Bitcoin to $87K, 20.2% below its ATH. As a result, new investors faced severe unrealized losses, and with the STH-MVRV at 0.95, loss realization intensified. Without a strong demand catalyst, the downtrend may continue.
Executive Summary
🔸Bybit Hack: A smart contract exploit drained 403,996 ETH (~$1.13B) from Bybit’s cold wallets, triggering $4.3B in outflows across Bitcoin and stablecoins.
🔸Market Sell-Off: Sentiment collapsed, with Bitcoin down -13.6%, Ethereum -22.9%, Solana -40%, and Meme Coins -36.9%, resetting momentum to April 2024 levels.
🔸Bitcoin Weakness: The drop pushed BTC into the $70K-$88K realized supply “air gap,” initially driven by long-term holder sell-offs and worsened by the Bybit hack.
🔸STH Pressure: STH-MVRV at 0.95 shows recent buyers 5% underwater, with profitability down 15.8%, signaling heavy unrealized losses.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain
Bitcoin’s momentum has stalled after an attempt to push into price discovery.
After a strong rally, BTC is now down 5.9% since early February, while ETH and SOL have dropped 16.9% and 33.1%. Memecoins, which surged +90.2% in late 2024, have now corrected -37.4%.
Diverging Performance Since 2023
🔹 Bitcoin → Trading 3.4x above April 2023 🔹 Solana → Peaked at 11.8x, now at 7.6x 🔹 Ethereum → Struggling, ranging between 1.3x and 2.0x 🔹 Memecoins → Peaked at 5.2x, now the weakest sector.
Moreover, Ethereum & Memecoins capital flows have flipped negative, with capital outflows of -0.1% and -5.9%, respectively.
Create Your Own Cross-Sector Analysis
For this comparison, our analysts built a Memecoin Index, but you can compare any project with BTC, its L1, and sector benchmarks. With Glassnode Studio covering BTC, major L1s, 700+ ERC-20s, and 60+ SPL tokens, you can build your own cross-asset analysis—no coding required.
🔗 Start here.
Stage 2 of our TON Blockchain integration is live!
Glassnode now offers an expanded suite of on-chain and derivatives metrics for TON, providing deeper insights into its market activity, supply dynamics, and investor behavior.
Newly added metrics include:
🔹 Supply Last Active by Age Bands: track dormant vs. active supply
🔹 Futures OI & Volume: monitor derivatives activity
🔹 MVRV & SOPR: assess profitability and market cycles
Use these to analyze holding trends, liquidity, investor sentiment, and more!
Explore the full suite of TON metrics, starting with our dedicated Dashboard.
📢 New Report Release: Glassnode x Gemini - 2025 Crypto Asset Trends
Explore the forces shaping the crypto market in 2025 with our latest 35-page report, featuring:
🔸Retail investor resurgence
🔹Insights into derivatives and institutional participation
🔸Solana's rise compared to Ethereum
🔹ETF market impacts
🔸Memecoin sector analysis
🔹Regional adoption trends
Download the full report for comprehensive, data-driven insights.
As much as 7.91% of Bitcoin's supply - based on UTXOs' creation date - has already changed hands this year. At the same time, 31.34% of the supply was last transacted in 2024.
How does this compare to other post-halving years?
By February 2017, 13.95% of $BTC supply had changed hands while more than 29.27% of the supply was still coming from 2016.
In 2021, this figure was even higher at this point of the year, amounting to 16.34%, while 27.46% of supply belonged to 2020 buyers.
So 2025's lower turnover can signal both weaker speculative demand but also possibly conviction from 2024 holders - and an expectation of higher prices as the year unfolds.
View Relative Supply by Date Bands
The Week On-Chain, Week 4, 2025
The current bull market shows several structural similarities to the 2015–2018 cycle. We explore this idea from the perspective of the drawdown profile, price performance, and changes in the Realized Cap.
Executive Summary
🔸Cyclical Market Growth: The rate of Bitcoin price appreciation has declined cycle by cycle, reflecting a path into market maturity. The drawdown profile of this cycle thus far closely resembles that of the 2015–2017 cycle.
🔹Realized Cap Expansion: The Realized Cap has grown by 2.1x in this cycle so far, below the 5.7x peak of the last cycle and aligns with the 2015–2018 cycle at this stage. The euphoria phase has yet to fully impact Realized Cap, indicating potential room for further market expansion.
🔺Exchange Balances vs. ETF Wallets: We assess that the recent drop in exchange balances to 2.7M BTC is primarily due to supply migrating into ETF wallets, many of which are managed by custodians like Coinbase.
More insight in the latest Week On-Chain
Following the correction to $99k, the Bitcoin Seller Exhaustion Composite flashed an exhaustion signal, highlighting severe unrealized loss and investor capitulation across the weekly-monthly timeframe.
The Seller Exhaustion Composite is a framework which models the points of extreme financial pressure and reaction, based on three profit/loss metrics:
🔹MVRV Ratio which assesses the unrealized profit or loss held by investors within the cohort.
🔹SOPR which evaluates the average magnitude of profit or loss locked in by the cohort.
🔹Realized Loss which isolates the USD denominated magnitude of loss locked in by the cohort.
This model can be used across multiple timeframes and assets.
For further information on the Seller Exhaustion Composite, please visit our dedicated article: Identifying Seller Exhaustion
The Week On-Chain, Week 3, 2025
Following two months of consolidation, Bitcoin has broken upwards from its rangebound conditions and surged to a new ATH of $109k. In this article, we evaluate the conditions leading into this move to demonstrate signals of impending volatility.
Executive Summary
🔸Capital flows into Bitcoin remain positive, although they have declined in magnitude since first reaching $100k. This highlights a period of declining sell-side pressure as the market approaches a near-term equilibrium.
🔹Sell-side pressure from long-term investors has also declined, alongside volumes deposited to exchanges for sale.
🔸Several measures of volatility are tightening up, with the market trading within a historically narrow 60-day price range, often a sign that the market is almost ready to move again.
Read Week On-Chain and discover more insights
📊 Bitcoin Supply in Unrealized Loss: Insights into Market Stress
Historically, the number of $BTC held in unrealized loss provides a reference point for assessing market stress:
🔸 Bull markets: <4M BTC in loss. 🔹 Early bear markets: 4–8M BTC in loss.
Last week, market volatility pushed 2.0–3.5M BTC into loss, still lower than the 4M BTC seen during mid-2024 lows.
For context: 🔻 2018 bear market: 10.7M BTC in loss. 🔻 2020 COVID crash: 10.4M BTC in loss.
📉 Another view: The Relative Unrealized Loss metric (unrealized losses relative to market cap) peaked at ~4.3% in Q3 2024 - far below the 10%+ levels seen during past external shocks like COVID or the 2021 China mining ban.
This highlights a more resilient market structure in the current cycle.
🔗 Dive deeper into the data here:
Total Supply in Loss
Entity-Adjusted Relative Unrealized Loss
The Week On-Chain 2, 2025
As the Bitcoin market corrects from the $108k ATH, a significant proportion of froth has come out of the market, whilst demand remains relatively robust. Unrealized losses are primarily held by short-term holders; however, stress levels are relatively modest compared to previous drawdowns.
Executive Summary
🔹Bitcoin has entered a correction phase, trading -11% below its ATH of $108k but remaining above key support levels, retaining a constructive market structure.
🔹Z-Score analysis suggests cyclical highs typically align with various metrics trading 1.5 to 2.0σ above the mean, offering a framework to help navigate bullish market phases.
🔹Bitcoin's current price is around 10% above the Short-Term Holders' cost basis of $88.4k, underscoring a potential risk of downside if momentum stalls and price trades below this level.
🔹Unrealized losses are concentrated among short-term holders, with 2.0–3.5M BTC held underwater.
Read the full Week On-Chain and discover more insights.
Following a period of distribution into the ATH, Bitcoin Shrimps (< 1 BTC) are now accumulating coins at a rate of +17.6k BTC/Month.
The cohort now holds around 1.36M BTC, equivalent to 6.9% of the circulating supply.
Shrimp Net Position Change Chart
Despite Bitcoin’s impressive rally last year, MVRV levels above 3.2 - typically associated with extreme euphoria - haven’t been reached this cycle yet. If BTC were to hit this level, it would correspond to a price tag of ~$132K.
📊 Historically, BTC price has spent only ~5% of trading days above this threshold, reinforcing why it’s viewed as a rare "extreme euphoria" zone.
❓ Will MVRV reach 3.2 this cycle? While momentum remains positive, with MVRV still above the 1-year MA (currently 2.18), one of the key questions is whether this trendline will plateau in the coming weeks - making MVRV momentum an important metric to monitor.
🔗 Explore the charts:
MVRV Pricing Bands
Historical MVRV Levels
MVRV Momentum
Perpetual Market Lagging Behind Momentum
Despite Bitcoin's strong rally from $93.5K on Jan 1 to $102.4K today, the Perpetual Funding Rates for the top 5 assets remain below neutral (0.01%):
BTC: 0.009%
ETH: 0.01%
SOL: 0.006%
XRP: 0.01%
DOGE: 0.011%
This suggests perpetual markets are lagging behind the current positive market momentum.
📊https://glassno.de/4gHafnZ
Ethereum Spot ETFs saw $2.05B in net inflows during December – the highest monthly total since inception. However, this influx of institutional capital wasn’t enough to shield ETH from downside volatility. The ultimately closed the month with a -10% loss.
https://glassno.de/3DI1mfy
Bitcoin Spot ETFs brought in $4.63B in December, well above the 2024 monthly average of $2.77B. Inflows were heavily concentrated in the first half of the month, while the second half saw outflows – with one notable exception on December 26. Despite reaching a new all-time high above $108K, BTC closed the month with a -3% performance.
https://glassno.de/4a00kHE
Key Highlights:
🔸Largest BTC ETF inflows: BlackRock’s $IBIT at $5.51B, followed by Fidelity’s $FBTC at $352.83M.
🔹Biggest BTC ETF outflows: Grayscale at -$997.59M, followed by Ark 21 Shares at -$193.94M.
https://glassno.de/4a00FKy
Despite the decline in Bitcoin price, the average Short-Term Holder continues to hold an unrealized profit (paper gain) of +7.9%.
Currently, their aggregate cost-basis resides at a value of $86.8k, marking this as a key region of interest for local price momentum.
For further information regarding the capital flows of the Short-Term Holder cohort, visit our Dashboard below👇
glassno.de/4gWoyVC