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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
Long-term #BTC holders are accelerating their distribution, with supply declining fast and net position change falling sharply into negative territory.
LTHs are booking profits as bulls defend $100k.
https://glassno.de/3XrNOLy
The majority of #Bitcoin supply sits in long-term holder’s hands, while Ethereum shows greater turnover and productive use on-chain. In our joint research with Keyrock, we assess how BTC and ETH supply dynamics shape their respective store-of-value profiles. Grounded in on-chain data, our analysis cuts through the narratives, showing Bitcoin’s dominant savings-asset profile and Ethereum’s hybrid position as both reserve capital and working collateral within DeFI.
Read the report for full insights: https://glassno.de/47F7FNu
#Bitcoin futures open interest remains muted following October’s leverage flush, showing little sign of new speculative build-up. Derivatives activity has slowed materially, mirroring the broader backdrop of subdued market sentiment.
🔗https://glassno.de/47Ksfup
Bitcoin rebounded from the 75th percentile cost basis (~$100K) and is now consolidating near $106.2K.
The next key level is the 85th percentile cost basis (~$108.5K); a zone that has historically served as resistance during recovery moves.
📉https://glassno.de/4ojfrSN
Across assets, we often see holders with large unrealized losses capitulate near local bottoms.
This pattern highlights how distress-driven selling can shape market reversals, a key dynamic now trackable via our Cost Basis Distribution Dashboard.
🔗https://glassno.de/43eVDrm
$RLUSD supply has surpassed $1B for the first time, marking steady growth through 2025.
Meanwhile, $USDe supply has fallen ~39% over the past month as onchain yields compressed and incentive-driven demand cooled.
🔗https://glassno.de/4oqMswE
Bitcoin has lost support at the 85th percentile cost basis (~$109K) and is now hovering near $103.5K.
The next key level sits around the 75th percentile cost basis (~$99K), which has historically provided support during pullbacks.
📉https://glassno.de/4ojfrSN
Since July, BTC has consistently failed to reclaim the cost basis of the top buyers' supply.
This increases the odds of a retest of the 0.8-quantile cost basis (~$104K) as top buyers capitulate, transferring coins to stronger hands.
A process that often demands time or deeper discounts.
📉http://glassno.de/4qwKX1c
Short-Term Holders are facing renewed pressure as recent buyers move into a loss.
Historically, such periods of STH stress and capitulation have marked attractive accumulation opportunities for patient investors.
🔗https://glassno.de/4oqsJwY
#BTC Options Weekly
The Fed delivered the expected rate cut, but the hawkish tone for December has cooled optimism. The initial rally faded as traders moved back into cautious mode, a shift clearly reflected in BTC’s options market.
Check out our latest BTC Options Weekly
These investors accumulated heavily between October 2024 (election period) & April 2025, with a cost basis ranging from $70k to $96k, averaging around $93k.
A breakdown below the $93k–$96k range would mark maximum pain for this cohort.
📈 https://glassno.de/4qzGXgv
Long-term holder spending rose from ~$1B/day (7D-SMA) in mid-July to $2–3B/day by early October.
Unlike previous high-spending phases in this cycle, this distribution regime has been gradual and persistent, rather than marked by a sharp spike.
📈 https://glassno.de/3X4EPQc
The Week On-Chain 43, 2025
Bitcoin remains stuck below key cost-basis levels as demand softens and long-term holders sell. Volatility is subdued but uneasy, leaving markets vulnerable to a hawkish Fed surprise.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin’s weekend rebound from the $107K–$118K supply cluster mirrored previous post-ATH relief rallies, but sustained sell pressure from long-term holders has limited follow-through.
- The market continues to struggle above the short-term holders’ cost basis (~$113K), a critical battleground between bull and bear momentum. Failure to reclaim this level raises the risk of deeper retracement toward the Active Investors’ Realized Price (~$88K).
- Short-term holders are exiting at a loss, while long-term holders remain heavy net distributors (~–104K BTC/month), signaling waning conviction and ongoing supply absorption.
- Implied volatility has cooled sharply after October’s crash, with skew flattening and options flows reflecting controlled upside and measured downside hedging.
- The current calm in volatility hinges on the Federal Reserve’s next decision. A dovish outcome would preserve stability, but any hawkish surprise could reignite volatility and downside protection demand
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter
The bounce from $107k coincided with US Spot ETF netflows turning positive. However, inflows remain <1k BTC/day, significantly lower than >2.5k BTC/day seen at the start of major rallies this cycle.
Demand is recovering, but not at the intensity of recent rallies.
📈 https://glassno.de/4htoZIg
#Bitcoin is stabilizing as sell pressure eases and profitability improves, but muted activity and selective participation suggest a cautious, rangebound market until major demand steps in.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/47aJrdz
The Week On-Chain 45, 2025
#Bitcoin consolidates near $103k, with support at $100K and resistance at $106K. ETF outflows, low leverage, and strong put demand highlight a cautious market still searching for conviction.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains in a mild bearish phase, trading between $97K and $111.9K, with resistance near $116K marked by top-buyers’ supply cluster.
- Seller exhaustion and renewed accumulation near $100K provide short-term support but lack strong follow-through demand.
- A dense supply cluster between $106K–$118K continues to cap rallies as investors exit near breakeven.
- ETF flows have turned modestly negative, reflecting fading institutional demand and a cautious risk appetite.
- Futures markets show muted funding rates and low open interest, signalling subdued speculative activity across both Bitcoin and altcoins.
- Options traders maintain a defensive stance, with put protection concentrated around $100K, while the 25-delta skew remains a key gauge for sentiment shifts.
- Overall, the market is consolidating within a defined range, awaiting stronger inflows or macro catalysts to break out of the current equilibrium.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
Since early October, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have shown signs of weakness, with a few positive days, but mostly net outflows reaching up to -$700M per day.
This trend points to a broader de-risking phase among ETF investors.
📉https://glassno.de/4oN6SQ5
Bitcoin has bounced from $100K to $106K, with momentum improving and selling pressure easing.
On-chain activity and reduced leverage point to early signs of stabilization after October’s drawdown.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/3LwDkIk
#BTC Options Weekly
Bitcoin is retesting the 100K level after short term holders have capitulated. Options data reveal how traders feel about fear, vol and positioning, a clear read on sentiment and the driver of price action.
Check our latest BTC Options Weekly
The Week On-Chain 44, 2025
Bitcoin stabilizes near $100K after losing key cost-basis levels, with fading demand and long-term holder selling. With ETF outflows and cautious options positioning, markets remain oversold.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin fell below the Short-Term Holders’ Cost Basis (~$112.5K), confirming fading demand and ending its prior bullish phase.
- Around 71% of supply remains in profit, consistent with mid-cycle corrections.
- Since July, LTH supply has declined by 300K BTC, marking ongoing distribution even as price trends lower.
- U.S. Spot ETFs have recorded steady outflows, while spot CVDs on major exchanges show persistent sell pressure.
- The Perpetual Market Premium dropped drastically indicating traders are stepping back from leveraged longs.
- Elevated put demand and higher premiums at the $100K strike show traders are still hedging, not buying the dip.
Read more in The Week On-Chain new
The monthly funding paid by longs in Bitcoin perpetuals has declined by ~62%, from $338M/month in mid-August to $127M/month now.
This underscores a clear macro downtrend in speculative appetite, as traders grow reluctant to pay interest to maintain long exposure.
📉 http://glassno.de/4oqXban
#Bitcoin stayed rangebound this week as momentum improved, but capital inflows softened. ETF outflows and declining profitability point to ongoing consolidation in a balanced market.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/43KcMJx
Over the past three weeks, BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF has seen less than 0.6k BTC in weekly net inflows.
This is a sharp decline from the >10K BTC net inflow per week that preceded each major rally this cycle, signalling a notable slowdown in institutional demand.
📉http://glassno.de/USSpotETFFlows
Since early August, XRP price has dropped from $3.3 to $2.4 (-27% 🔽).
At the same time, long-term holders who accumulated before Nov 2024 ramped up their spending by ~580%, from $38M/day to $260M/day (7D-SMA)
A clear sign of seasoned traders exiting and adding pressure to price action.
📉glassno.de/3WtnfFv
#BTC retested the 0.85 cost-basis band around $109K, historically a make-or-break level.
Holding it has sparked major rallies, but losing it often sees a slide toward the 0.75 band ($98K).
📈https://glassno.de/47kDhHS
Filtering by age cohort reveals that 6m–12m holders drove over 50% of recent sell pressure—especially during the late stages of the top formation.
Around the $126k ATH, their spending exceeded $648M/day (7D-SMA); over 5x their baseline earlier in 2025.
📈https://glassno.de/4oPMJZT
Yesterday, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of –$93M, highlighting rising sell pressure from TradFi investors and renewed weakness in institutional demand.
📈https://glassno.de/4oN6SQ5
#BTC Futures are still seeing muted activity following the historic wipeout on 10/10.
Open Interest is still ±30% off the highs, and Funding is close to neutral.
🔗https://glassno.de/4nEmUek
Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution shows support near $111K and heavy supply around $117K.
This range defines the current battleground between recent buyers and profit-takers. A break in either direction could set the tone for the next major move.
🔗https://glassno.de/3WXsmOb
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) Oscillator continues to sit near cycle lows, indicating ample stablecoin liquidity relative to Bitcoin. Historically, such periods precede stronger bid-side support when market confidence returns.
🔗https://glassno.de/4osY1n7