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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
A new cost-basis cluster formed after Bitcoin’s drop into the low-$80K region, showing fresh accumulation at these levels. This zone is now one of the densest on the heatmap and could act as a strong support area, likely to be defended by recent buyers.
📉https://glassno.de/48mkMlC
XRP’s futures OI has fallen from 1.7B XRP in early October to 0.7B XRP (~59% flush-out).
Paired with the funding rate dropping from ~0.01% to 0.001% (7D-SMA), 10/10 marked a structural pause in XRP speculators’ appetite to bet aggressively on upside.
📉 http://glassno.de/4pwZ0Cw
$BTC sits beneath every short-term holder's realized price but remains well above deeper realized levels, leaving the market in no-man’s-land.
Regaining these bands would mark the first meaningful sign of structural recovery.
📉https://glassno.de/4rlNr2Y
The $2.0 level remains a major psychological zone for Ripple holders.
Since early 2025, each time XRP has retested $2, investors have realized $0.5B–$1.2B per week in losses.
This underscores how heavily this level influences spending behavior.
📉http://glassno.de/4obHgvn
The shift from a confirmed bull to a true bear market often comes after multiple major on-chain price models fail:
🔴STH Cost Basis: $109.8K
🟡Active Investors Mean: $88.6K
🟢True Market Mean: $82K
🔵Realized Price: $56.1K
We are now testing Active Investors Mean. A breakdown below both Active Investors and the True Market Mean would mark the first major confirmation of a deeper bear trend since May 2022.
📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
#BTC has broken below the 0.75 cost-basis quantile, a level that has historically marked bear-market territory. Across cycles, reclaiming and holding above it has been key to restoring bullish structure. Bulls will want to see this level regained.
📉https://glassno.de/4o6648m
Bitcoins' downtrend pushed prices to $93K, with momentum oversold and sell-side pressure easing. Flows and on-chain activity have softened, suggesting early signs of stabilization in the $94K–$100K range.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/49uahz3
Long-term #BTC holders are accelerating their distribution, with supply declining fast and net position change falling sharply into negative territory.
LTHs are booking profits as bulls defend $100k.
https://glassno.de/3XrNOLy
The majority of #Bitcoin supply sits in long-term holder’s hands, while Ethereum shows greater turnover and productive use on-chain. In our joint research with Keyrock, we assess how BTC and ETH supply dynamics shape their respective store-of-value profiles. Grounded in on-chain data, our analysis cuts through the narratives, showing Bitcoin’s dominant savings-asset profile and Ethereum’s hybrid position as both reserve capital and working collateral within DeFI.
Read the report for full insights: https://glassno.de/47F7FNu
#Bitcoin futures open interest remains muted following October’s leverage flush, showing little sign of new speculative build-up. Derivatives activity has slowed materially, mirroring the broader backdrop of subdued market sentiment.
🔗https://glassno.de/47Ksfup
Bitcoin rebounded from the 75th percentile cost basis (~$100K) and is now consolidating near $106.2K.
The next key level is the 85th percentile cost basis (~$108.5K); a zone that has historically served as resistance during recovery moves.
📉https://glassno.de/4ojfrSN
Across assets, we often see holders with large unrealized losses capitulate near local bottoms.
This pattern highlights how distress-driven selling can shape market reversals, a key dynamic now trackable via our Cost Basis Distribution Dashboard.
🔗https://glassno.de/43eVDrm
$RLUSD supply has surpassed $1B for the first time, marking steady growth through 2025.
Meanwhile, $USDe supply has fallen ~39% over the past month as onchain yields compressed and incentive-driven demand cooled.
🔗https://glassno.de/4oqMswE
Bitcoin has lost support at the 85th percentile cost basis (~$109K) and is now hovering near $103.5K.
The next key level sits around the 75th percentile cost basis (~$99K), which has historically provided support during pullbacks.
📉https://glassno.de/4ojfrSN
Since July, BTC has consistently failed to reclaim the cost basis of the top buyers' supply.
This increases the odds of a retest of the 0.8-quantile cost basis (~$104K) as top buyers capitulate, transferring coins to stronger hands.
A process that often demands time or deeper discounts.
📉http://glassno.de/4qwKX1c
🔄 Update:
With spot price now at $90.9K, several key levels have shifted:
🔴 STH Cost Basis: $104.2K
--- Spot Price: $90.9K ---
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $88.1k
🟢True Market Mean: $81.7K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.4K
📊http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
Breaking above the top-buyers’ supply clusters is a key prerequisite for regaining momentum toward a new ATH.
The major immediate clusters sit at $93k–$96K & $100k–$108K, where typically some degree of resistance from recent buyers is expected.
📊 glassno.de/4p2DTbn
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Ends on #CyberMonday
$BTC broke below $90K and tested $80K before a mild rebound. Momentum stays oversold but shows early signs ofnexhaustion. Derivs and spot flows remain weak, pointing to orderly de-risking.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/49yJ5iz
The Week On-Chain 46, 2025
BTC has broken below key cost-basis levels amid weak spot demand and steady ETF outflows. Derivatives remain muted, with declining OI, cycle-low funding, and options activity skewed toward downside protection.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken below the STH cost basis and the −1 STD band, placing recent buyers under stress; the $95K–$97K region now acts as key resistance, and a reclaim would mark an early step toward restoring market structure.
- Spot demand remains weak, with US spot ETF flows deeply negative and no incremental bid emerging from TradFi allocators.
- Speculative leverage continues to unwind, reflected in declining futures open interest and funding rates falling to cycle lows across the top 500 assets.
- Options markets have sharply repriced risk, with implied volatility rising across maturities and skew remaining deeply negative as traders pay significant premiums for downside protection.
- Put-dominant flow and demand at key strikes (e.g., 90K) reinforce a defensive positioning regime, with traders hedging more actively rather than adding upside exposure.
- DVOL has returned to monthly highs, tying together the broad repricing of risk across volatility, skew, and flow metrics and signalling expectations for elevated near-term volatility.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
The share of XRP supply in profit has fallen to 58.5%, the lowest since Nov 2024, when price was $0.53.
Today, despite trading ~4× higher ($2.15), 41.5% of supply (~26.5B XRP) sits in loss — a clear sign of a top-heavy and structurally fragile market dominated by late buyers.
📉 http://glassno.de/48pwOef
At $96K, nearly 99% of investors who accumulated Bitcoin within the past 155 days are now holding at a loss
📉https://glassno.de/47GyFfn
The Week On-Chain 45, 2025
#Bitcoin consolidates near $103k, with support at $100K and resistance at $106K. ETF outflows, low leverage, and strong put demand highlight a cautious market still searching for conviction.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains in a mild bearish phase, trading between $97K and $111.9K, with resistance near $116K marked by top-buyers’ supply cluster.
- Seller exhaustion and renewed accumulation near $100K provide short-term support but lack strong follow-through demand.
- A dense supply cluster between $106K–$118K continues to cap rallies as investors exit near breakeven.
- ETF flows have turned modestly negative, reflecting fading institutional demand and a cautious risk appetite.
- Futures markets show muted funding rates and low open interest, signalling subdued speculative activity across both Bitcoin and altcoins.
- Options traders maintain a defensive stance, with put protection concentrated around $100K, while the 25-delta skew remains a key gauge for sentiment shifts.
- Overall, the market is consolidating within a defined range, awaiting stronger inflows or macro catalysts to break out of the current equilibrium.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
Since early October, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have shown signs of weakness, with a few positive days, but mostly net outflows reaching up to -$700M per day.
This trend points to a broader de-risking phase among ETF investors.
📉https://glassno.de/4oN6SQ5
Bitcoin has bounced from $100K to $106K, with momentum improving and selling pressure easing.
On-chain activity and reduced leverage point to early signs of stabilization after October’s drawdown.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/3LwDkIk
#BTC Options Weekly
Bitcoin is retesting the 100K level after short term holders have capitulated. Options data reveal how traders feel about fear, vol and positioning, a clear read on sentiment and the driver of price action.
Check our latest BTC Options Weekly
The Week On-Chain 44, 2025
Bitcoin stabilizes near $100K after losing key cost-basis levels, with fading demand and long-term holder selling. With ETF outflows and cautious options positioning, markets remain oversold.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin fell below the Short-Term Holders’ Cost Basis (~$112.5K), confirming fading demand and ending its prior bullish phase.
- Around 71% of supply remains in profit, consistent with mid-cycle corrections.
- Since July, LTH supply has declined by 300K BTC, marking ongoing distribution even as price trends lower.
- U.S. Spot ETFs have recorded steady outflows, while spot CVDs on major exchanges show persistent sell pressure.
- The Perpetual Market Premium dropped drastically indicating traders are stepping back from leveraged longs.
- Elevated put demand and higher premiums at the $100K strike show traders are still hedging, not buying the dip.
Read more in The Week On-Chain new
The monthly funding paid by longs in Bitcoin perpetuals has declined by ~62%, from $338M/month in mid-August to $127M/month now.
This underscores a clear macro downtrend in speculative appetite, as traders grow reluctant to pay interest to maintain long exposure.
📉 http://glassno.de/4oqXban
#Bitcoin stayed rangebound this week as momentum improved, but capital inflows softened. ETF outflows and declining profitability point to ongoing consolidation in a balanced market.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/43KcMJx
Over the past three weeks, BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF has seen less than 0.6k BTC in weekly net inflows.
This is a sharp decline from the >10K BTC net inflow per week that preceded each major rally this cycle, signalling a notable slowdown in institutional demand.
📉http://glassno.de/USSpotETFFlows