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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
The Week On-Chain 48, 2025
Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but market structure now mirrors Q1 2022 with over 25% of supply underwater. Demand is weakening across ETFs, spot, and futures, while options show compressed volatility & cautious positioning.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but the broader structure now resembles Q1 2022 with >25% of supply underwater.
- Capital momentum remains positive, supporting consolidation, though far below mid-2025 peaks.
- 0.75–0.85 quantile band ($96.1K–$106K) is the key zone for restoring structure; failure increases downside risk.
- ETF flows turn negative, and spot CVD rolls over, signalling weakening demand.
- Futures open interest declines and funding resets neutral, reflecting a risk-off stance.
- Options market sees IV compression, softer skew, and flows shifting from puts to cautious call selling.
- Options appear underpriced, with realised volatility exceeding implied, putting pressure on short-gamma traders.
- Overall, the market remains fragile, dependent on holding key cost-basis zones unless macro shocks break the balance.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
The Glassnode x Fasanara Q4 2025 Digital Assets Report is live!
🔗 Download your copy at https://glassno.de/4pIbsQ1.
Drawing on Glassnode’s data and analytics and Fasanara’s trading perspective, we outline how market structure has shifted across spot, ETFs, futures, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.
From Bitcoin’s spot-driven expansion to the rise of tokenization and decentralized perps, the market is reshaping around new structural anchors. For professionals navigating a fast-changing market, the report offers a consolidated view of the digital asset ecosystem.
📄 Read more on Glassnode Insights → https://glassno.de/3MzXJwk
A new cost-basis cluster formed after Bitcoin’s drop into the low-$80K region, showing fresh accumulation at these levels. This zone is now one of the densest on the heatmap and could act as a strong support area, likely to be defended by recent buyers.
📉https://glassno.de/48mkMlC
XRP’s futures OI has fallen from 1.7B XRP in early October to 0.7B XRP (~59% flush-out).
Paired with the funding rate dropping from ~0.01% to 0.001% (7D-SMA), 10/10 marked a structural pause in XRP speculators’ appetite to bet aggressively on upside.
📉 http://glassno.de/4pwZ0Cw
$BTC sits beneath every short-term holder's realized price but remains well above deeper realized levels, leaving the market in no-man’s-land.
Regaining these bands would mark the first meaningful sign of structural recovery.
📉https://glassno.de/4rlNr2Y
The $2.0 level remains a major psychological zone for Ripple holders.
Since early 2025, each time XRP has retested $2, investors have realized $0.5B–$1.2B per week in losses.
This underscores how heavily this level influences spending behavior.
📉http://glassno.de/4obHgvn
The shift from a confirmed bull to a true bear market often comes after multiple major on-chain price models fail:
🔴STH Cost Basis: $109.8K
🟡Active Investors Mean: $88.6K
🟢True Market Mean: $82K
🔵Realized Price: $56.1K
We are now testing Active Investors Mean. A breakdown below both Active Investors and the True Market Mean would mark the first major confirmation of a deeper bear trend since May 2022.
📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
#BTC has broken below the 0.75 cost-basis quantile, a level that has historically marked bear-market territory. Across cycles, reclaiming and holding above it has been key to restoring bullish structure. Bulls will want to see this level regained.
📉https://glassno.de/4o6648m
Bitcoins' downtrend pushed prices to $93K, with momentum oversold and sell-side pressure easing. Flows and on-chain activity have softened, suggesting early signs of stabilization in the $94K–$100K range.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/49uahz3
Long-term #BTC holders are accelerating their distribution, with supply declining fast and net position change falling sharply into negative territory.
LTHs are booking profits as bulls defend $100k.
https://glassno.de/3XrNOLy
The majority of #Bitcoin supply sits in long-term holder’s hands, while Ethereum shows greater turnover and productive use on-chain. In our joint research with Keyrock, we assess how BTC and ETH supply dynamics shape their respective store-of-value profiles. Grounded in on-chain data, our analysis cuts through the narratives, showing Bitcoin’s dominant savings-asset profile and Ethereum’s hybrid position as both reserve capital and working collateral within DeFI.
Read the report for full insights: https://glassno.de/47F7FNu
#Bitcoin futures open interest remains muted following October’s leverage flush, showing little sign of new speculative build-up. Derivatives activity has slowed materially, mirroring the broader backdrop of subdued market sentiment.
🔗https://glassno.de/47Ksfup
Bitcoin rebounded from the 75th percentile cost basis (~$100K) and is now consolidating near $106.2K.
The next key level is the 85th percentile cost basis (~$108.5K); a zone that has historically served as resistance during recovery moves.
📉https://glassno.de/4ojfrSN
Across assets, we often see holders with large unrealized losses capitulate near local bottoms.
This pattern highlights how distress-driven selling can shape market reversals, a key dynamic now trackable via our Cost Basis Distribution Dashboard.
🔗https://glassno.de/43eVDrm
$RLUSD supply has surpassed $1B for the first time, marking steady growth through 2025.
Meanwhile, $USDe supply has fallen ~39% over the past month as onchain yields compressed and incentive-driven demand cooled.
🔗https://glassno.de/4oqMswE
Tune in to our webinar with Keyrock at 4pm CET today, where Glassnode Analyst Chris Beamish and Keyrock Digital Asset Researcher Ben Harvey will unpack the data and market forces behind BTC’s and ETH’s diverging usage patterns.
🔗 Event link: https://glassno.de/4pPHt98
$Bitcoin shows early stabilisation as RSI rebounds and CVD turns positive, but spot volume, on-chain activity and liquidity remain weak. ETFs see inflows, yet futures de-risk and short-term capital dominates.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/48cCFEP
🔄 Update:
With spot price now at $90.9K, several key levels have shifted:
🔴 STH Cost Basis: $104.2K
--- Spot Price: $90.9K ---
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $88.1k
🟢True Market Mean: $81.7K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.4K
📊http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
Breaking above the top-buyers’ supply clusters is a key prerequisite for regaining momentum toward a new ATH.
The major immediate clusters sit at $93k–$96K & $100k–$108K, where typically some degree of resistance from recent buyers is expected.
📊 glassno.de/4p2DTbn
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Ends on #CyberMonday
$BTC broke below $90K and tested $80K before a mild rebound. Momentum stays oversold but shows early signs ofnexhaustion. Derivs and spot flows remain weak, pointing to orderly de-risking.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/49yJ5iz
The Week On-Chain 46, 2025
BTC has broken below key cost-basis levels amid weak spot demand and steady ETF outflows. Derivatives remain muted, with declining OI, cycle-low funding, and options activity skewed toward downside protection.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken below the STH cost basis and the −1 STD band, placing recent buyers under stress; the $95K–$97K region now acts as key resistance, and a reclaim would mark an early step toward restoring market structure.
- Spot demand remains weak, with US spot ETF flows deeply negative and no incremental bid emerging from TradFi allocators.
- Speculative leverage continues to unwind, reflected in declining futures open interest and funding rates falling to cycle lows across the top 500 assets.
- Options markets have sharply repriced risk, with implied volatility rising across maturities and skew remaining deeply negative as traders pay significant premiums for downside protection.
- Put-dominant flow and demand at key strikes (e.g., 90K) reinforce a defensive positioning regime, with traders hedging more actively rather than adding upside exposure.
- DVOL has returned to monthly highs, tying together the broad repricing of risk across volatility, skew, and flow metrics and signalling expectations for elevated near-term volatility.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
The share of XRP supply in profit has fallen to 58.5%, the lowest since Nov 2024, when price was $0.53.
Today, despite trading ~4× higher ($2.15), 41.5% of supply (~26.5B XRP) sits in loss — a clear sign of a top-heavy and structurally fragile market dominated by late buyers.
📉 http://glassno.de/48pwOef
At $96K, nearly 99% of investors who accumulated Bitcoin within the past 155 days are now holding at a loss
📉https://glassno.de/47GyFfn
The Week On-Chain 45, 2025
#Bitcoin consolidates near $103k, with support at $100K and resistance at $106K. ETF outflows, low leverage, and strong put demand highlight a cautious market still searching for conviction.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains in a mild bearish phase, trading between $97K and $111.9K, with resistance near $116K marked by top-buyers’ supply cluster.
- Seller exhaustion and renewed accumulation near $100K provide short-term support but lack strong follow-through demand.
- A dense supply cluster between $106K–$118K continues to cap rallies as investors exit near breakeven.
- ETF flows have turned modestly negative, reflecting fading institutional demand and a cautious risk appetite.
- Futures markets show muted funding rates and low open interest, signalling subdued speculative activity across both Bitcoin and altcoins.
- Options traders maintain a defensive stance, with put protection concentrated around $100K, while the 25-delta skew remains a key gauge for sentiment shifts.
- Overall, the market is consolidating within a defined range, awaiting stronger inflows or macro catalysts to break out of the current equilibrium.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
Since early October, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have shown signs of weakness, with a few positive days, but mostly net outflows reaching up to -$700M per day.
This trend points to a broader de-risking phase among ETF investors.
📉https://glassno.de/4oN6SQ5
Bitcoin has bounced from $100K to $106K, with momentum improving and selling pressure easing.
On-chain activity and reduced leverage point to early signs of stabilization after October’s drawdown.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/3LwDkIk
#BTC Options Weekly
Bitcoin is retesting the 100K level after short term holders have capitulated. Options data reveal how traders feel about fear, vol and positioning, a clear read on sentiment and the driver of price action.
Check our latest BTC Options Weekly
The Week On-Chain 44, 2025
Bitcoin stabilizes near $100K after losing key cost-basis levels, with fading demand and long-term holder selling. With ETF outflows and cautious options positioning, markets remain oversold.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin fell below the Short-Term Holders’ Cost Basis (~$112.5K), confirming fading demand and ending its prior bullish phase.
- Around 71% of supply remains in profit, consistent with mid-cycle corrections.
- Since July, LTH supply has declined by 300K BTC, marking ongoing distribution even as price trends lower.
- U.S. Spot ETFs have recorded steady outflows, while spot CVDs on major exchanges show persistent sell pressure.
- The Perpetual Market Premium dropped drastically indicating traders are stepping back from leveraged longs.
- Elevated put demand and higher premiums at the $100K strike show traders are still hedging, not buying the dip.
Read more in The Week On-Chain new
The monthly funding paid by longs in Bitcoin perpetuals has declined by ~62%, from $338M/month in mid-August to $127M/month now.
This underscores a clear macro downtrend in speculative appetite, as traders grow reluctant to pay interest to maintain long exposure.
📉 http://glassno.de/4oqXban