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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
🔄 UPDATE:
The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D SMA) has been trading below 1 since February 21.
Historically, breaks below the neutral level (~1) have persisted for 6+ months before reclaiming it.
📉 glassno.de/4rjg683
#BTC Spot ETF flows are stabilising after sustained outflows. The 14-day netflow trend has turned higher, signalling easing distribution pressure as BTC breaks above 70k. Institutional demand remains tentative, but early re-accumulation signs are emerging.
https://glassno.de/4sLx5Rh
Perpetual Open Interest posted its largest daily % increase since July 2025.
Leverage expanded as price tested $69.4k, consistent with speculators betting on a $70k breakout that didn't materialize.
📈glassno.de/4u0lkrj
#BTC stabilises as momentum and on-chain activity improve, while derivatives stay cautious. Selling pressure eases but capital flows remain fragile, signalling a tentative recovery backdrop.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4cW6KuS
The Week On-Chain 8, 2026
#BTC is range-bound between key valuation anchors, with $60k–$69k absorbing sell pressure. Profitability and breadth are fading, spot and ETF flows stay negative, and leverage has reset.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains range-bound between $60k–$70k at a 47% drawdown from ATH, a depth historically aligned with mid-to-late bear market phases.
- Nearly 9.2M BTC are now held at a loss, yet accumulation remains weak, with the Accumulation Trend Score below 0.5, signaling limited conviction from larger entities.
- The 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1.0, confirming an excess loss regime and structurally impaired liquidity, keeping downside risk elevated.
- Market breadth remains weak, as fewer assets sustain positioning above long-term trend baselines, confirming underlying structural softness.
- Large entity accumulation remains constructive in structure but has slowed in pace, reducing a key source of marginal upside support.
- Spot CVD has turned decisively negative across major venues, signaling active distribution. ETF flows remain in persistent outflow, confirming institutional demand is not providing a structural bid.
- Perpetual funding rates have normalized toward neutral, indicating leverage has reset. However, the absence of sustained positive funding reflects muted speculative appetite rather than renewed bullish conviction.
- Implied volatility has reacted to downside moves but failed to expand meaningfully, suggesting options markets are stabilizing rather than pricing systemic stress.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
#Bitcoin stayed range-bound around ~$64–68K, momentum modestly improving but participation weak. Sell pressure eased slightly yet spot, derivatives, ETF, and on-chain indicators remain defensive.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4rzXTnf
The 90D-SMA of top crypto assets' Change in Open Interest [%] has remained negative since October 2025.
The speculative premium, and with it derivatives liquidity, continues to contract.
Leverage appetite has yet to return, reinforcing the broader risk-off regime.
📉 http://glassno.de/4ooZ5rT
The Week On-Chain 6, 2026
Range-Bound Under Pressure
Executive Summary
• Bitcoin has slipped below the True Market Mean (~$79k), with the Realized Price (~$54.9k) defining the lower structural boundary. In the absence of a macro catalyst, this range is likely to frame the mid-term environment.
• Sell pressure continues to be absorbed within the $60k–$69k demand cluster formed in H1 2024. The Holder conviction at breakeven has supported a transition into consolidation.
• Liquidity remains constrained, with the 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stuck between 1–2. Capital rotation is limited, and the broader backdrop remains cautious.
• ETF flows have rotated back into persistent outflows, removing a key structural bid. Institutional demand is no longer cushioning downside.
• The volatility risk premium is normalizing as realized volatility remains elevated and implied retraces. Panic-driven flows are fading, with markets shifting toward range-bound expectations.
📰https://glassno.de/4qHi80M
BTC Realized Profits-to-Value (30D MA) has retraced sharply, unwinding much of the prior profit-taking impulse. However, it remains above the historical capitulation band.
This suggests profit realization is cooling, but not yet broad capitulation.
https://glassno.de/40fcpoa
The recent drop to $60k imposed drastic psychological pressure on “diamond hands,” comparable to the May 2022 LUNA crash.
In both cases, the 7D EMA of Long-Term Holder SOPR fell below 1 after trading for 1-2 years above it.
Simply put, long-term holders realized significant losses—a rare shift in conviction typically seen in deeper stages of bear markets.
📈 http://glassno.de/4qDwGys
#Bitcoin spent the past week rebounding to $70K and stalling into the high $60Ks. The structure still looks reactive, with attempts to recover meeting overhead supply and follow-through remaining limited.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4aBgpUX
Assuming the early October ATH marked the end of the recent bull market, this cycle saw very modest drawdowns, similar to the 2015–2017 market.
📈 http://glassno.de/3ZuY5Yr
XRP lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling.
• SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 (Jul ’25) to 0.96 (now)
• Holders are realizing significant losses
• On-chain profitability flipped negative
This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR plunged to a <1 range for prolonged consolidation before stabilization.
📉 http://glassno.de/3O4vYwO
#Bitcoin's Yardstick has fallen to its lowest level on record, pushing valuation into an unprecedented zone. Conditions like this have rarely persisted, often marking periods where downside exhaustion meets long-term opportunity.
📉https://glassno.de/45NLi75
The #BTC capitulation metric has printed its second-largest spike in two years, highlighting a sharp escalation in forced selling.
These stress events typically coincide with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning.
https://glassno.de/3LSM2kJ
#Bitcoin pulled back from $74k but internals are stabilizing. Momentum, ETF inflows, and profitability metrics improved modestly, though capital flows and conviction remain weak.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/3OXCaqR
📢 We’ve just launched Strategy Watch – Glassnode’s new monthly analysis of fund performance and institutional capital flows in digital assets.
Download the inaugural edition: https://glassno.de/4u7QGfF
Each issue combines aggregated manager survey data with on-chain and market intelligence to track:
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If you allocate capital, manage crypto strategies, or shape investment mandates, this is your monthly read on where returns are concentrating and how institutions are positioning.
📩 Subscribe to receive it monthly: https://glassno.de/4l5HrII
🔄UPDATE:
The $70k ceiling holds!
Feb 19 → Feb 25 → Mar 03, 02:00 UTC.
Each time the 12HR-SMA of Net Realized P&L spiked above $5M/hr, price stalled and reversed at the $69.4k range high. This region continues to cap every recovery attempt. The asymmetry reflects the fragility of the current demand structure.
Until this level of profit-taking can be absorbed without triggering rejection, $70k remains a ceiling, not a floor.
📉glassno.de/4kHB925
Feb 25, 18:00 UTC — this pattern repeated.
Smoothed Net Realized P&L exceeded $5M/hr. Price peaked at $69.4k and stalled.
Profit-taking continues to absorb momentum at the $70k threshold, consistent with a thin liquidity regime where even modest realization events are sufficient to suppress recovery attempts.
📉http://glassno.de/4kHB925
#BTC options positioning has flipped.
Our full-history GEX heatmap shows expanding negative gamma (red) around and below spot, while positive “gamma walls” thin out above.
With price in a short-gamma pocket, dealer hedging can amplify moves.
https://glassno.de/46LyIG3
The 7D-EMA of Net Realized Profit & Loss for recent investors plunged to –$1.24B/day on Feb 06, before moderating to –$0.48B/day today.
While the intensity has cooled, the broader regime still signals a market under pressure, with participants in the base formation phase continuing to capitulate.
📉 glassno.de/4cadTHO
Since the new ATH in early October, US Spot ETF balances have posted their largest drawdown of this cycle, down ~100.3k BTC.
Institutional de-risking has added structural weight to the ongoing weakness, reinforcing the broader risk-off environment.
📉 http://glassno.de/4tJOR8r
Since early February, every attempt to reclaim $70k has met demand exhaustion, with even >$5M/hour in net realized profit triggering rejection.
Contrast that with Q3 2025’s euphoric phase, when profit realization surged to $200–350M/hour.
Ongoing regime of thin liquidity makes a sustained recovery into the $70–80k range structurally challenging.
📉http://glassno.de/4kHB925
During the first sharp leg down in NOV 2025, the market absorbed heavy sell pressure aggressively, similar to the post-LUNA & FTX crash responses.
The recent drop to $60k did see some accumulation, but it was notably weaker than the NOV 2025 bounce or the reflexive demand seen after the LUNA collapse.
📉http://glassno.de/3OgO6Uo
The LTH Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap maps supply density across price levels.
The recent support above $65k is anchored in the 2024 H1 accumulation range. This demand zone has absorbed recent sell pressure.
A decisive break would likely open the path toward Realized Price (~$54k).
📈http://glassno.de/4aRWHW9
The Week On-Chain 6, 2026
Bitcoin remains defensive in the $60k–$72k zone while overhead supply caps rallies. Treasury outflows, reactive spot volume, and cooling futures signal shallow demand.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains confined between the True Market Mean (~$79.2k) and the Realized Price (~$55k), reflecting a defensive regime following the structural breakdown, with sell-side pressure continuing to be absorbed in the $60k–$72k demand corridor.
- Large supply clusters at $82k–$97k and $100k–$117k sit in unrealized loss, creating overhead resistance potential during relief rallies.
- Short-Term Holder profitability remains negative, underscoring fragile conviction among recent buyers and limiting upside follow-through.
- Digital Asset Treasury flows have flipped into synchronized net outflows, signalling broad institutional de-risking and shallow spot absorption.
- Spot volume spiked during the selloff but failed to sustain, indicating reactive participation rather than constructive accumulation.
- Perpetual futures positioning has cooled, with directional premiums compressing as leveraged traders step back and speculative momentum fades.
- Implied volatility and skew reflect persistent downside hedging demand, consistent with a defensive market posture.
- Dealer gamma and options positioning are reinforcing reactive price behaviour, keeping moves short-lived amid fragile liquidity conditions.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
At $69k, the unrealized loss in the market equals ~17% of the market cap. Current market pain echoes a similar structure seen in early May 2022.
📉 http://glassno.de/4aqd4Ik
#Bitcoin recovers to $69K after sharp downside repricing. Positioning remains defensive across spot, derivatives, and on-chain metrics, with recovery dependent on renewed spot demand.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4bKIxHy
On Feb 04, Bitcoin’s Entity-Adjusted Realized Loss (7D-SMA) hit $889M per day, the highest daily loss realization since November 2022.
📉http://glassno.de/3Mq0ock
The Week On-Chain 5, 2026
The #BTC bear market rages on as profitability resets, realised losses rise, spot demand stays weak, and leverage unwinds. Options keep pricing elevated downside risk.
Executive Summary
- BTC has confirmed a decisive breakdown, with price slipping below key structural support levels and keeping market participants firmly on the defensive.
- On-chain profitability has sharply deteriorated, with MVRV Z-Score compressing to its lowest level since Oct 2022, signalling a major reset in unrealised gains.
- Realised losses are accelerating, with sustained sell pressure suggesting many holders are being forced to exit at a loss as downside momentum persists.
- Spot volume remains structurally weak, reinforcing a demand vacuum where sell-side flows are not being met with meaningful absorption.
- Futures markets have entered a forced deleveraging phase, with the largest long liquidation spikes of the drawdown amplifying volatility and downside continuation.
- Demand from major allocators has softened materially, as ETF and treasury-linked netflows fade and fail to provide the consistent bid seen during prior expansion phases.
Options markets continue to price elevated downside risk, with volatility staying bid and skew steepening as traders pay up for protection.
- With leverage being flushed but spot demand still absent, the market remains vulnerable, and any relief rallies are likely to be corrective rather than trend-reversing.
Read more in The Week On-Chain