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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
To size how intensely long-term holders are anchoring the sell side, we can zoom into exchange flows directly.
The Relative LTH/STH Realized P&L to Exchanges breaks down what share of coins flowing into exchanges carry a profit or loss, and which cohort is driving it. Currently, more than 65% of exchange inflows are attributable to long-term holders realizing losses, a reading consistent with prior bear market phases where this cohort dominated the sell side before eventually exhausting.
Until this share begins to compress, the structural sell pressure from cycle-top buyers remains the dominant force in exchange flow.
📉 http://glassno.de/btc-lth-sth-exchange-rpnl
Quoting cryptovizart:
One of the metrics I watch most closely when trying to gauge a bear market's end is, Realized Loss volume (in USD) by the 1-2 year holders.
This age bracket captures coins last moved roughly 12 to 24 months ago, placing them closest to cycle-peak buyers. As frustration builds with sustained price underperformance, this cohort tends to progressively increase loss realization.
Historically, bear markets have not found durable footing until this specific group exhausts its sell pressure. When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market.
Worth watching closely.
📉 http://glassno.de/btc-realized-loss-1y2y
Green Shoots
Bitcoin's bottom is still building, but its character is shifting. Long-term holder capitulation is cooling, buyers absorbed the June lows, and price is climbing back toward the levels that capped it
Read the full Week On-Chain👇
Trading activity in US spot ETFs sits in a quiet regime. Volumes are down 78% from the peak and below 2024 levels. A sustained recovery in $BTC price momentum would likely require attention and market participation to return from other asset classes.
📊https://glassno.de/4pDBa9P
$BTC recovered toward $64K, but weak spot participation and subdued on-chain activity suggest the move lacks broad conviction. Institutions are returning, while options remain defensive.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
First eventful order flow in weeks. Aggressive shorting into the 58k lows, twice. Unfortunately for bears, the retest coincided with spot sell pressure easing. All of this short OI has since been flushed. Notably, BTC remained strong today despite negative news of MSTR selling
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Bitcoin's easing into consolidation. Selling has cooled, futures longs are piling back in, and options traders aren't as spooked about downside anymore. ETF outflows are drying up too. Hot capital is creeping back though, which could stir up volatility even as profits climb.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
glassno.de/4eZQxV4
One of our most insightful on chain metrics is the Hyperliquid Entry Price Heatmap. It shows the exact price levels at which traders enter positions. Large longs from $72-76k and shorts from $60k are currently under water, leading to fragility in either direction.
https://glassno.de/44Imuwb
Altcoin Cycle Signal update: the altcoin signal remains firmly in "altcoin season". This is strength beyond the denominator effect we described last month. Alts remain strong both on a relative and absolute basis.
https://glassno.de/3RhFoXG
Quoting @glassnode:
The Altcoin Cycle Signal is back in Altcoin Season. The typical version of this print has alts running while BTC stays bid. Currently, we see alts running out of sellers after nearly two years and BTC drawing down aggressively. For now, the BTC side is still doing most of the work.
https://glassno.de/4eIE8Vr
Accumulation Below the Surface
$BTC has fallen below $60K as ETF outflows persist. Despite the weakness, long-term holders are absorbing supply, suggesting patient capital is returning.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇
$BTC fell from around $63K to a local low near $58K before stabilising. Defensive positioning persists across spot, derivatives and ETFs, while on-chain activity suggests the market remains in consolidation.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
With price sliding below $60k, long-term holders are now carrying 5.6M BTC at a loss, the highest since the Covid crash in 2020.
The resolution of overhang supply is extending, not concluding.
📉 http://glassno.de/btc-lth-supply-loss
Waiting for Buyers
$BTC has broken below $60K as loss realization, ETF outflows, and defensive options positioning continue to weigh on sentiment. Despite some selective accumulation, broad demand remains absent.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇
Hyperliquid traders are increasingly leaning long despite $BTC remaining well below its highs. Positioning has become progressively more bullish through the downtrend, highlighting persistent dip-buying and growing squeeze potential.
📈https://glassno.de/4g0NjTp
$BTC traded between $61K and $67K before stabilising near $65K. Institutional demand softened, but resilient holder behaviour and stable futures positioning continue to support a constructive market backdrop.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
Adding to the sell-side pressure from LTH loss realization, short-term holders who bought near the recent lows are now taking profit at volumes last seen close to the peak in May.
Two forces anchoring the rally simultaneously:
1- Cycle-top buyers reducing losses into strength
2- Local-low buyers locking in gains.
Both are selling into the same price recovery.
📉 http://glassno.de/btc-sth-realized-profit
Quoting cryptovizart:
As price rallies toward $66k, LTH realized loss volume is spiking!
Cycle-top buyers are using the relief rally as an exit opportunity, locking in losses at a smaller margin than the sub-60k lows allowed. Selling into strength rather than waiting for recovery is a pattern consistent with exhausted conviction among underwater long-term holders.
📉 http://glassno.de/btc-lth-realized-loss
Top traders on Hyperliquid are aggressively long $BTC, showing some of the highest sustained long positioning we’ve recorded. This exposure exceeds what was seen during the last run to around $83k, pointing to strong speculative demand at these levels.
📊https://glassno.de/4wGsPnV
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Live map for all chains →
Bottom Building in Progress
Bitcoin remains in deep value after five months below key investor cost bases. LTH capitulation has peaked at $280M/day while ETF flows stay net negative. Derivatives lean cautiously long, but the options surface still prices downside. The bottoming process is advancing, not yet complete.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇
Bitcoin's easing into consolidation. Selling has cooled, futures longs are piling back in, and options traders aren't as spooked about downside anymore. ETF outflows are drying up too. Hot capital is creeping back though, which could stir up volatility even as profits climb.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
The options market is currently pricing in low future volatility for $BTC. While upside expectations remain unchanged we see less demand for short exposure. This could be the first sign of optimism returning to the options market.
https://glassno.de/4wpfdgH
Bottoms are formed by a shift in regime.
The Vector framework is still signaling a Strong Risk-Off environment for Bitcoin. However, under the surface, metrics are beginning to pivot. A potential bottom may be forming.
We'll alert you the second it confirms
As $BTC extends its drawdown, options markets are repricing risk, volatility, and the probabilities investors assign to the next major move.
Here's what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath the surface.👇
DVOL is trending higher as $BTC's sell-off extends, signalling a gradual repricing of future volatility. The move reflects growing uncertainty, though implied volatility remains well below the extremes seen during major market dislocations.
https://glassno.de/4y3vzgE
Despite Bitcoin's rebound from $58K, Skew remains firmly positive, indicating puts continue to command a premium over calls. Demand for downside protection persists, although the retreat from June's extremes suggests defensive positioning is beginning to ease.
https://glassno.de/3SGoSAY
With $BTC still trading in negative gamma territory, dealer hedging may continue to amplify price swings. Combined with elevated implied volatility and persistent demand for puts, the options market remains cautiously defensive.
https://glassno.de/3QDXIKu
Following Strategy’s June 29 announcement, its preferred shares rebounded strongly into month-end, with $STRC recovering around 13%. Bitcoin continued to show weakness, closing June below $60k.
📉 https://glassno.de/4xXbDfp
Directional managers posted strong gains in May, led by Fundamental (+8.62%) and Event Driven (+11.43%) approaches.
Stock selection drove the standout returns rather than market direction.
Strategy Watch, produced with CIG, is live.
BTC has returned to a key inflection point after sweeping both the February and June lows.
Here's what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath the surface.
Volatility Rebounds
BTC IV is rising as price revisits the February lows. 1 week IV has jumped from 33% to 45%, with the rest of the curve also moving higher. Options markets are pricing greater uncertainty as downside volatility returns.
https://glassno.de/4amt4vK
Protection Demand Returns
25 Delta Skew is rising across the curve as traders pay a growing premium for puts over calls. 1W skew has climbed to 30%, while longer maturities have also moved higher. Demand for downside protection is building again.
https://glassno.de/4vQ3at7
Calls Remain Out of Favor
The Skew Index Ratio compares upside IV vs downside IV. Only the 6 month tenor remains above 1, while shorter dated maturities all trade below neutral, reflecting stronger demand for downside protection than upside exposure.
https://glassno.de/3QLDTkn
Volatility Risk Premium Resets
1M implied volatility has caught back up with realized volatility. After spending the past 2 weeks below realized moves, the spread is now at zero. Options markets are no longer underpricing recent volatility.
https://glassno.de/4xQdFha
Short Gamma Dominates Below Spot
Following today's large options expiry, traders rebuilt downside exposure, forcing market makers to be short gamma from 60.5K down to 55K, where dealer hedging could amplify volatility if BTC moves lower.
https://glassno.de/4f2myge
Put Activity Dominates
Put selling led taker flow over the past 7 days, accounting for 38.3% of premium traded, followed by put buying at 32.1%. Call activity remained muted. The options tape continues to revolve around downside exposure.
https://glassno.de/4eIuge1
Wrap Up
Implied volatility has rebounded.
Protection demand is building.
Calls remain out of favor.
Volatility risk premium has normalized.
Short gamma dominates below 60.5K.
Put activity dominates the tape.
Options positioning remains defensive near key support.
With price contracting to $1.04, the 90D-SMA has declined further to 0.33, the lowest reading since August 2022.
Capitulation pressure continues to deepen. Each successive low in this ratio reflects a growing share of participants exiting at a loss, with profit-taking activity increasingly unable to offset it.
📉 http://glassno.de/xrp-rplr
Since mid-May, the 7D-SMA of US Spot ETF aggregated flows has not recorded a single net positive day.
This suggests but an absence of institutional demand. TradFi capital has yet to re-engage with BTC at current price levels.
📉 http://glassno.de/btc-etf-flows-all
The Altcoin Cycle Signal is back in Altcoin Season. The typical version of this print has alts running while BTC stays bid. Currently, we see alts running out of sellers after nearly two years and BTC drawing down aggressively. For now, the BTC side is still doing most of the work.
https://glassno.de/4eIE8Vr
What the Oil Price means for $BTC
📊Chart of the Week: WTI Crude Oil
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