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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
Sellers are getting exhausted, but have not reached levels we saw in past $BTC bear markets.
According to the Seller Exhaustion Constant (30d), the historical bottoming signature has not confirmed yet.
We continue to monitor for selling to stall further.
$BTC has stabilised near $65k, with stronger taker demand, robust institutional inflows and easing downside hedging. However, subdued spot liquidity and weak on-chain activity suggest the recovery remains tentative.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
Now live in Market Compass: the #Bitcoin Cycle Position Composite, with heatmap, and snapshot charts – updated daily.
Included in all Advanced and Pro plans.
Quoting @n3ocortex:
As requested: the cycle position composite as a time-series 👇 https://twitter.com/n3ocortex/status/2084300783021944891
Following the Coldcard firmware exploit, the number of active Bitcoin addresses surged to 0.98M/day, the highest since December 2024.
This is fear-driven on-chain activity. Holders migrating seeds and moving funds to alternative custody reflects an operational security response, not a change in market conviction.
📉 http://glassno.de/btc-active-addresses
OKX moved its trading infrastructure from Hong Kong to Tokyo this week.
Our latency probes caught the switch live:
Hong Kong: ~5ms → ~63ms
Tokyo: ~52ms → ~4ms
A clean swap. If you’re co-located in Hong Kong for @okx, it’s time to move to Tokyo.
👉 http://latency.glassnode.com/cex
Your AI agent can now buy Glassnode data.
x402 pays per call: from your Coinbase balance via Coinbase for Agents (live today), or any USDC wallet via Base MCP.
Try: "Pull Glassnode's MVRV and NUPL for BTC and tell me if the market is overheated"
https://glassno.de/451fVoR
Watch on X
An extreme day for $BTC: As the Coldcard hack news broke on Friday, eight on-chain metrics printed values well above their two-year median.
The data indicates holders are migrating their coins to new wallets rather than sending to exchanges
https://glassno.de/4g6zy54
The dollar has been rallying since May, and $BTC is taking it worse than almost any dollar rally on record.
Across every dollar rally since 2015, $BTC showed significantly more relative strength.
A flip of this relationship would be a positive signal
https://glassno.de/4c8YqXl
This bear market is 49% deep. Every prior one bottomed far below that.
By depth, it is the mildest on record so far. By the clock it isn't finished: prior bear markets ran about 1/3 longer before reaching the lows
See more in our report "Paid to Wait"
$BTC rebounded from $64K to $65.1K but remains range-bound. Softer leverage, ETF outflows and muted on-chain activity signal cautious consolidation despite resilient holders.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
$BTC options are turning less defensive as put/call ratios and short-dated skew fall, while volatility stays compressed.
Here's what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath the surface.👇
The $BTC options OI put/call ratio has fallen sharply to ~0.52, down from ~0.76 in late June. Call open interest is gaining share relative to puts, signalling an unwind in defensive positioning as price stabilises near $67K.
https://glassno.de/4wDxt6J
$BTC ATM implied volatility remains compressed across the curve, with 1W at 34.3% versus 6M at 40.8%. The upward-sloping term structure shows near-term event risk is being discounted, while longer-dated uncertainty retains a modest premium.
25-delta skew has fallen sharply at the front end, with 1W dropping near 4%, while 3M–6M remain around 11–12%. Near-term downside hedging is unwinding, but longer-dated options retain a defensive premium.
https://glassno.de/4fCt2Sf
Hedges are off, shorts are closed, and ETF flows have flipped positive.
What $BTC needs now is confirmation at the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $69k; rejection there puts the lower demand shelf back in play.
Read the full Week On-Chain report👇
$BTC is consolidating near $64.5K, supported by strong profitability and stable derivatives. Rising hot capital and sell-side pressure, however, leave the market increasingly sensitive to volatility.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
$BTC options are turning more constructive: volatility is easing, the put/call ratio is at a six-month low, and upside exposure is rebuilding.
Here's what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath the surface.👇
$BTC implied volatility has fallen from 48 to 40 as price recovered. The decline in DVOL shows the options market unwinding part of June’s fear premium, although volatility remains above May lows, signalling that uncertainty has eased, not disappeared.
https://glassno.de/4fkriN4
$BTC is consolidating near $63K, below a dense negative-gamma cluster around $68K–$70K. A move into this zone could trigger more pro-cyclical dealer hedging and amplify volatility.
https://glassno.de/4wRJMvO
$BTC’s options put/call ratio has fallen to a six-month low near 0.59, signalling a decisive shift toward call-heavy positioning. As price stabilises around $64K, traders appear to be reducing downside hedges and rebuilding upside exposure, a constructive shift in sentiment.
https://glassno.de/45aozBe
Adding to the sell-side pressure from LTH loss realization, short-term holders who bought near the recent lows are now taking profit at volumes last seen close to the peak in May.
Two forces anchoring the rally simultaneously:
1- Cycle-top buyers reducing losses into strength
2- Local-low buyers locking in gains.
Both are selling into the same price recovery.
📉 http://glassno.de/btc-sth-realized-profit
Quoting cryptovizart:
As price rallies toward $66k, LTH realized loss volume is spiking!
Cycle-top buyers are using the relief rally as an exit opportunity, locking in losses at a smaller margin than the sub-60k lows allowed. Selling into strength rather than waiting for recovery is a pattern consistent with exhausted conviction among underwater long-term holders.
📉 http://glassno.de/btc-lth-realized-loss
Over the last 90 days the S&P 500 rose 5% while Bitcoin fell 20%. The last 7 days show the same pattern.
Until Bitcoin reclaims strength against the indices, this remains an equity-led tape.
Notably, the NASDAQ is lagging behind other major indices indicating an unfavorable environment for tech-heavy portfolios.
https://glassno.de/4q7edf4
$BTC options are showing a cautious but improving setup. Vol is being repriced higher, short-dated fear is fading, calls still dominate OI, and recent premium flow is increasingly constructive. Here’s what the options market is signalling👇
$BTC options have shifted back to a modest vol premium, with IV now ~10% above RV after weeks of realised vol outpacing implied. The market is paying up for uncertainty again, but pricing remains far from stressed.
https://glassno.de/4z8hejG
$BTC skew has softened sharply at the front end, with 1-week 25Δ skew falling toward ~7%. Longer tenors remain elevated near 10–12%, suggesting near-term fear is fading while structural demand for downside protection persists.
https://glassno.de/4fKKV2B
BTC options OI remains call-heavy, with calls near ~$15B versus ~$10B in puts after a sharp expiry-driven reset. The persistent gap shows call-side positioning remains structurally larger despite weaker spot.
https://glassno.de/3UkdXgX
Premium flow is concentrated around $61k–$67k, led by heavy $65k call buying and put selling. The mix points to constructive near-term positioning, while put demand below spot shows downside hedging remains active.
https://glassno.de/4hqnRrb
Wrap up:
$BTC options point to a market growing more constructive without abandoning protection. Near-term fear is easing, calls still dominate positioning, and fresh flow is improving, but longer-dated hedging demand remains elevated.
Last week, the market sold off into the FOMC and bottomed on decision day: the S&P printed a 7-week low, with equity fear spiking. Four sessions later, we saw new highs. The decision to hold rates steady appears to have been the risk-on signal the market was waiting for
Quoting @glassnode:
Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything. http://x.com/i/article/2084996338773864448
Bitcoin's options skew looks bearish – but not because traders are aggressively paying for protection.
While downside IV is cheap, the real extreme is upside IV: an all-time low of 23%.
Nobody is paying for $BTC upside anymore.
Quoting @glassnode:
Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything. http://x.com/i/article/2084996338773864448
Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything.
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$BTC has slipped to $62.6k as spot demand remains weak and derivatives stay defensive. Stronger on-chain activity, resilient holders and ETF inflows offer support, but conviction remains muted.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
Three-month futures basis has paid less than a 2-year Treasury since February.
Only one other stretch on record has run this long: August 2022 into January 2023. It ended at the cycle low.
This also directly impacts depth and volumes across the market.
https://glassno.de/3REiIkJ
$BTC has slipped back to $62.6K, unwinding much of July’s rebound and returning to the lower end of its range. Yet options positioning is rebuilding while implied volatility remains subdued, signalling continued market complacency.
Short-dated ATM volatility has fallen sharply, with 1-week IV near 34% versus ~42% at six months. The steepening term structure signals muted near-term risk, but persistent uncertainty further out.
https://glassno.de/4pLcTOQ
Call OI has rebounded to ~$23B while put OI sits near ~$11B, pulling the put/call ratio towards 0.5. Positioning remains call-heavy, signalling stronger upside participation than demand for protection.
https://glassno.de/4fxt3bd
Bitcoin options open interest has rebuilt to ~$34B from June’s ~$25B low as BTC recovered towards $65K. Positioning is returning, but remains below 2025 peaks, signalling renewed engagement without excessive leverage.
https://glassno.de/4pQvcCt
Wrap-up:
Positioning has rebuilt, but volatility markets remain notably relaxed despite renewed price weakness. Call-side OI dominates, while low DVOL suggests traders are still pricing limited near-term movement.
The market has gone very quiet: spot volumes, exchange flows, and vols are sitting at the extremes.
Meanwhile treasuries have out-yielded the crypto carry trade for only the second time on record.
Read the full Week on Chain Report "Paid to Wait" here
Speculative supply is thinning while dormant coins climb. Our 3Q26 Charting Crypto report with Coinbase Institutional outlines how the macro liquidity cycle is steering price, and where early accumulation signals are forming.
Download the report
Strategy Watch #6 is live📊
June turned risk-off: directional funds fell (Fundamental -11.6%) while market-neutral held up, and net capital left every major asset.
Our monthly read on fund performance & flows, with Crypto Insights Group
Solana rotates block production to a new leader every 1.6 seconds.
This epoch, 67% of blocks are being produced in Europe.
Our dashboard helps users identify optimal connection points to minimize latency.
Frankfurt average: 72ms. US East average: 140ms
http://latency.glassnode.com/solana
🔄 Update:
With the spot price trading at $64.9K, the key on-chain price models are as follows:
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $83.5k
🟢True Market Mean: $76.2K
🔴 STH Cost Basis: $69.5K
---- Spot Price: $64.9K ----
🔵 Realized Price: $52.9K
📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
To size how intensely long-term holders are anchoring the sell side, we can zoom into exchange flows directly.
The Relative LTH/STH Realized P&L to Exchanges breaks down what share of coins flowing into exchanges carry a profit or loss, and which cohort is driving it. Currently, more than 65% of exchange inflows are attributable to long-term holders realizing losses, a reading consistent with prior bear market phases where this cohort dominated the sell side before eventually exhausting.
Until this share begins to compress, the structural sell pressure from cycle-top buyers remains the dominant force in exchange flow.
📉 http://glassno.de/btc-lth-sth-exchange-rpnl
Quoting cryptovizart:
One of the metrics I watch most closely when trying to gauge a bear market's end is, Realized Loss volume (in USD) by the 1-2 year holders.
This age bracket captures coins last moved roughly 12 to 24 months ago, placing them closest to cycle-peak buyers. As frustration builds with sustained price underperformance, this cohort tends to progressively increase loss realization.
Historically, bear markets have not found durable footing until this specific group exhausts its sell pressure. When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market.
Worth watching closely.
📉 http://glassno.de/btc-realized-loss-1y2y
Green Shoots
Bitcoin's bottom is still building, but its character is shifting. Long-term holder capitulation is cooling, buyers absorbed the June lows, and price is climbing back toward the levels that capped it
Read the full Week On-Chain👇