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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
$BTC has erased 3 months of underperformance against the S&P 500 in the last 72 hours.
As we showed several days ago, stretches of relative BTC underperformance are common.
However, when BTC does outperform, the excess gains tend to be significant.
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2089664677177700620
Our liquidation heatmaps showed a massive short liquidation build-up before $BTC's move up yesterday.
For anyone using our hyperliquid heatmaps, the asymmetrical weakness was obvious up to 10 days before the actual move.
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2090110942789210113
The last daily $BTC close this large was in February, and that was just the rebound from the -14% day before it.
This one had no crash to bounce off. Against its own 30d volatility it was a 5.8 sigma move – the largest to the upside since October 2023.
Elevated yields keep BTC anchored near cycle lows while gold and oil rally. Price sits below two key cost bases in a shallow capitulation. Perpetual demand improves but US spot lags and volatility compresses. The bottoming process is underway.
https://x.com/i/article/2090109283220299776
Most public $BTC treasuries are underwater.
Price is below their aggregate cost basis, and the share of companies sitting at a loss has climbed back toward around 80%
$BTC has held Defensive for two weeks, 30/100 on the Glassnode Market Compass.
Macro did the lifting, +24 on the month. Valuation stays at the cycle's discounted end, 16/100.
Cheap and improving. The missing leg is flows, light at 30.
Read it daily:
$BTC outperformed the stock market today.
This has become a less common occurrence lately.
1/2
In fact, BTC only outperformed the S&P500 on around one third of trading days over the last 3 months.
This is the longest underperformance streak we've seen over the last 6 years of history. The question now is whether this is the start of a trend or just one of those 3 days.
2/2
This is one of the cheapest times to buy volatility in years.
However, the data shows recent buyers still did not make money.
$BTC simply delivered less movement than people paid for.
Did whales go long at the top of the local $BTC range?
Whale net long positioning on Hyperliquid peaked right into resistance.
Spot and flow data still show no matching demand.
Read our latest weekly article "Trigger Happy" for analyses like this👇
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2087586319983882446
$BTC options remain subdued, with volatility and skew continuing to compress. But positioning beneath the surface is becoming more concentrated around key strikes, creating a clearer setup across the options complex.
Here’s what the data shows👇
$BTC implied volatility continues to compress, led by the front end. 1-week ATM IV has fallen toward 26%, while 6-month IV remains near 39%, steepening the term structure as traders price in subdued near-term moves but retain longer-dated uncertainty.
https://glassno.de/4qf2mvA
25-delta skew has compressed sharply across tenors, with 1-week skew falling toward ~5%. The decline points to softer demand for downside protection, suggesting options markets are becoming less defensively positioned.
https://glassno.de/4gdga5q
GEX remains concentrated around spot, with negative gamma clustered through the low-$60Ks and positive gamma building closer to ~$70K. This leaves BTC vulnerable to sharper moves lower, while upside may encounter more stabilising dealer hedging.
https://glassno.de/4gh93Zz
Wrap up:
Overall, options markets are less defensive, but not complacent. Falling IV and skew point to reduced near-term fear, while concentrated gamma and strike activity suggest the $60K–$70K range remains the key battleground for the next directional move.
Sellers are tiring but buyers are absent. However, leverage traders have already pulled the trigger on a recovery the data does not yet support.
The market is coiled tightly between converging cost-basis levels on the quietest tape since 2019.
Read it here
Over the last 90 days the S&P 500 rose 5% while Bitcoin fell 20%. The last 7 days show the same pattern.
Until Bitcoin reclaims strength against the indices, this remains an equity-led tape.
Notably, the NASDAQ is lagging behind other major indices indicating an unfavorable environment for tech-heavy portfolios.
https://glassno.de/4q7edf4
$BTC options are showing a cautious but improving setup. Vol is being repriced higher, short-dated fear is fading, calls still dominate OI, and recent premium flow is increasingly constructive. Here’s what the options market is signalling👇
$BTC options have shifted back to a modest vol premium, with IV now ~10% above RV after weeks of realised vol outpacing implied. The market is paying up for uncertainty again, but pricing remains far from stressed.
https://glassno.de/4z8hejG
$BTC skew has softened sharply at the front end, with 1-week 25Δ skew falling toward ~7%. Longer tenors remain elevated near 10–12%, suggesting near-term fear is fading while structural demand for downside protection persists.
https://glassno.de/4fKKV2B
BTC options OI remains call-heavy, with calls near ~$15B versus ~$10B in puts after a sharp expiry-driven reset. The persistent gap shows call-side positioning remains structurally larger despite weaker spot.
https://glassno.de/3UkdXgX
Premium flow is concentrated around $61k–$67k, led by heavy $65k call buying and put selling. The mix points to constructive near-term positioning, while put demand below spot shows downside hedging remains active.
https://glassno.de/4hqnRrb
Wrap up:
$BTC options point to a market growing more constructive without abandoning protection. Near-term fear is easing, calls still dominate positioning, and fresh flow is improving, but longer-dated hedging demand remains elevated.
Last week, the market sold off into the FOMC and bottomed on decision day: the S&P printed a 7-week low, with equity fear spiking. Four sessions later, we saw new highs. The decision to hold rates steady appears to have been the risk-on signal the market was waiting for
Quoting @glassnode:
Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything. http://x.com/i/article/2084996338773864448
Bitcoin's options skew looks bearish – but not because traders are aggressively paying for protection.
While downside IV is cheap, the real extreme is upside IV: an all-time low of 23%.
Nobody is paying for $BTC upside anymore.
Quoting @glassnode:
Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything. http://x.com/i/article/2084996338773864448
High conviction buyers have been accumulating $BTC since January.
We saw similar behavior in 2022.
This cycle, the share of supply that was bought by this cohort is even larger than last cycle.
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2089739670242660761
@blocks and @Tesla are the top 2 major companies still in profit on their Bitcoin treasuries.
Nearly every other company on the list is now below or at its cost basis.
Also worth a mention is Bitcoin Group SE, a close third.
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2090035547364528559
$HYPE and $ETH are leading the major crypto assets during today’s rally.
Despite many coins showing double digit gains, these two assets are outpacing all other majors today.
$500m worth of shorts were just liquidated within minutes.
As BTC spiked to over $69k, open interest dropped due to positions being force-closed.
It looks like the market was predominantly short for this move up.
Strong hands are buying $BTC.
Bottoms are formed when profit taking slows and conviction buyers step in. This setup looks similar to what we saw during 2022.
The largest increase in BTC held by conviction buyers occurred when BTC dropped to $60k in January.
$BTC is underperforming the S&P 500 on 2 out of 3 trading days.
However, when BTC does outperform, the excess returns (green) are significantly larger.
Also noteworthy is that these excess returns have been slowly degrading over the years.
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2089442880255607037
$BTC holds near $63.6k as weak spot liquidity, ETF outflows and loss realization keep conditions subdued. Stabilising capital flows suggest selling pressure may be easing, but conviction remains limited.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
Consumer Confidence recently hit an all-time low as the stock market continued to make new highs.
This weak sentiment is pushing money out of cash and into equities, AI, and commodities.
$BTC has been significantly neglected by this rotation
The support under $BTC has started to disappear.
The heavy wall of buy orders that built below price in June has begun to drain away. What remains is a much thinner floor.
In our weekly updates we've been monitoring this metric closely 👇
https://x.com/glassnode/status/2087586319983882446?s=20
ICYMI: $BTC futures OI has climbed past a full day of futures volume, just shy of last September's record.
Plenty of positions, thin turnover. On a tape this thin, liquidations meet little resistance in either direction.
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2087586319983882446
Sellers are getting exhausted, but have not reached levels we saw in past $BTC bear markets.
According to the Seller Exhaustion Constant (30d), the historical bottoming signature has not confirmed yet.
We continue to monitor for selling to stall further.
$BTC has stabilised near $65k, with stronger taker demand, robust institutional inflows and easing downside hedging. However, subdued spot liquidity and weak on-chain activity suggest the recovery remains tentative.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
Now live in Market Compass: the #Bitcoin Cycle Position Composite, with heatmap, and snapshot charts – updated daily.
Included in all Advanced and Pro plans.
Quoting @n3ocortex:
As requested: the cycle position composite as a time-series 👇 https://twitter.com/n3ocortex/status/2084300783021944891
Following the Coldcard firmware exploit, the number of active Bitcoin addresses surged to 0.98M/day, the highest since December 2024.
This is fear-driven on-chain activity. Holders migrating seeds and moving funds to alternative custody reflects an operational security response, not a change in market conviction.
📉 http://glassno.de/btc-active-addresses
OKX moved its trading infrastructure from Hong Kong to Tokyo this week.
Our latency probes caught the switch live:
Hong Kong: ~5ms → ~63ms
Tokyo: ~52ms → ~4ms
A clean swap. If you’re co-located in Hong Kong for @okx, it’s time to move to Tokyo.
👉 http://latency.glassnode.com/cex