43777
Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
Strategy Watch is our monthly read on fund performance, capital flows, and allocator positioning across digital assets, produced with Crypto Insights Group
Edition #7 is live now 👈
After large market moves, staying objective and level-headed is difficult.
Our latest weekly report walks you through the data: the liquidation cascade, who bought the squeeze, and the supply now sitting overhead.
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2092605995356966938
Bitcoin Vector's impulse flipped positive from the lows.
$BTC has advanced roughly 20% since.
The strategy is currently fully allocated and in profit, and the next upside target sits at $82.8k.
Full access
$BTC has surged toward $80k as spot, derivatives and ETF demand accelerate. Rising activity and profitability support the move, though muted macro inflows suggest it remains tactically driven.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
#BTC investors are paying up for upside exposure.
25-delta call vol has been outpacing puts at every maturity since the breakout.
Skew is at its lowest of the year across the curve and flipped negative on the front end.
https://twitter.com/n3ocortex/status/2090786305105973305
Close to $1B has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in the last 3 days.
This is the strongest 3-day inflow since $BTC was last trading above $80k.
$BTC has erased 3 months of underperformance against the S&P 500 in the last 72 hours.
As we showed several days ago, stretches of relative BTC underperformance are common.
However, when BTC does outperform, the excess gains tend to be significant.
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2089664677177700620
Our liquidation heatmaps showed a massive short liquidation build-up before $BTC's move up yesterday.
For anyone using our hyperliquid heatmaps, the asymmetrical weakness was obvious up to 10 days before the actual move.
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2090110942789210113
The last daily $BTC close this large was in February, and that was just the rebound from the -14% day before it.
This one had no crash to bounce off. Against its own 30d volatility it was a 5.8 sigma move – the largest to the upside since October 2023.
Elevated yields keep BTC anchored near cycle lows while gold and oil rally. Price sits below two key cost bases in a shallow capitulation. Perpetual demand improves but US spot lags and volatility compresses. The bottoming process is underway.
https://x.com/i/article/2090109283220299776
Most public $BTC treasuries are underwater.
Price is below their aggregate cost basis, and the share of companies sitting at a loss has climbed back toward around 80%
$BTC has held Defensive for two weeks, 30/100 on the Glassnode Market Compass.
Macro did the lifting, +24 on the month. Valuation stays at the cycle's discounted end, 16/100.
Cheap and improving. The missing leg is flows, light at 30.
Read it daily:
$BTC outperformed the stock market today.
This has become a less common occurrence lately.
1/2
In fact, BTC only outperformed the S&P500 on around one third of trading days over the last 3 months.
This is the longest underperformance streak we've seen over the last 6 years of history. The question now is whether this is the start of a trend or just one of those 3 days.
2/2
This is one of the cheapest times to buy volatility in years.
However, the data shows recent buyers still did not make money.
$BTC simply delivered less movement than people paid for.
Did whales go long at the top of the local $BTC range?
Whale net long positioning on Hyperliquid peaked right into resistance.
Spot and flow data still show no matching demand.
Read our latest weekly article "Trigger Happy" for analyses like this👇
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2087586319983882446
1.05M $BTC of long-term holder supply sits between $83K and $86K, the first heavy cost-basis shelf above spot at $79K.
Effectively all of it has held through the entire drawdown, making that band the test of whether patient supply sells at breakeven.
👉 https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-34-2026/
Squeeze into Supply: The Week On-chain 34 is live.
What stands between this recovery and the January high is one band of supply between $81K and $86K.
Bitcoin ran 26% off its mid-August low on a record short flush, and real money followed it up.
$5 billion of IBIT options expire on September 18.
Most of that is calls: $3B vs $2B in puts.
Max pain sits at $40, which corresponds to a $BTC price of approximately $71k.
Market buyers stepped in heavily as $BTC edged above $64k.
This buy-side aggression then helped to fuel the breakout and kept volume delta consistently positive until $76k.
That buy pressure remains strong at these levels.
The altcoin market has entered a state of optimism.
85% of alts reached funding rates above their mean.
This is the highest print we've seen for this metric since BTC was trading at all time highs.
In an alt season, these conditions can last for many weeks.
The dollar debasement narrative is back after the Treasury’s latest buyback announcement.
$BTC has led the move, up about 21% since the announcement, while gold also rose and equities barely moved.
High conviction buyers have been accumulating $BTC since January.
We saw similar behavior in 2022.
This cycle, the share of supply that was bought by this cohort is even larger than last cycle.
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2089739670242660761
@blocks and @Tesla are the top 2 major companies still in profit on their Bitcoin treasuries.
Nearly every other company on the list is now below or at its cost basis.
Also worth a mention is Bitcoin Group SE, a close third.
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2090035547364528559
$HYPE and $ETH are leading the major crypto assets during today’s rally.
Despite many coins showing double digit gains, these two assets are outpacing all other majors today.
$500m worth of shorts were just liquidated within minutes.
As BTC spiked to over $69k, open interest dropped due to positions being force-closed.
It looks like the market was predominantly short for this move up.
Strong hands are buying $BTC.
Bottoms are formed when profit taking slows and conviction buyers step in. This setup looks similar to what we saw during 2022.
The largest increase in BTC held by conviction buyers occurred when BTC dropped to $60k in January.
$BTC is underperforming the S&P 500 on 2 out of 3 trading days.
However, when BTC does outperform, the excess returns (green) are significantly larger.
Also noteworthy is that these excess returns have been slowly degrading over the years.
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2089442880255607037
$BTC holds near $63.6k as weak spot liquidity, ETF outflows and loss realization keep conditions subdued. Stabilising capital flows suggest selling pressure may be easing, but conviction remains limited.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
Consumer Confidence recently hit an all-time low as the stock market continued to make new highs.
This weak sentiment is pushing money out of cash and into equities, AI, and commodities.
$BTC has been significantly neglected by this rotation
The support under $BTC has started to disappear.
The heavy wall of buy orders that built below price in June has begun to drain away. What remains is a much thinner floor.
In our weekly updates we've been monitoring this metric closely 👇
https://x.com/glassnode/status/2087586319983882446?s=20