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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
Large entities are back in profit.
Small wallets stayed in profit the whole time: at the June low, $BTC held well above their $48K cost basis while sharks and whales slipped underwater.
In the 2022 bear market, price fell below every group's cost basis.
Whales have stopped sending $BTC to exchanges.
Their summer run of net deposits lasted over three months, twice as long as any other since 2023.
It ended in late August, and the flow has stayed negative since.
$BTC long-term holders stayed in profit this entire cycle.
No bear market since at least 2015 has done that.
In each prior bear, LTH-MVRV fell below 1 at the cycle low, putting the cohort underwater.
This time it bottomed above 1 and is now climbing again.
$BTC investors that bought the top are currently selling.
Two cohorts sit underwater: buyers from 1–2 years ago at $97k, and from 6–12 months ago at $89k.
Those who bought the 2025 rally are selling the most coins per day this year.
Those who bought the decline are not.
The sell wall over $BTC has gone.
Buyers took out the $85k wall yesterday, after almost a week of failed tests.
The rest of the sell orders seem to have been removed.
With reduced ask liquidity above, this should allow price to move up faster.
Bitcoin is holding up, but it has hit a wall of sellers at $85K.
Our new Week On-chain maps what it would take to break through.
$BTC is rallying on less leverage.
Price is up 35% from the August low, while coin-denominated open interest is down almost 20%.
That puts open interest at its lowest since March, potentially making the rally less susceptible to leverage flushes.
Bitcoin trades near $84k after a week that closed about 4% higher.
ETF inflows carried the gain while perpetual traders and profit-takers sold into it, and Monday's dip takes price back to the lower end of its range.
https://glassno.de/4ACHe7s
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Holders are realizing profits on $BTC.
However, the amounts remain relatively low, with $5.1B in net profit realized over the last 7 days.
They look closer to late 2023 levels than to what we saw at major tops.
Bitcoin is back above the levels that held it down all year.
Our new Week On-chain report maps where it could go next.
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$BTC has flashed the momentum signal that started the last two bull markets.
MVRV has crossed back above its 365-day average.
This is the same cross that we saw in 2019 and 2023 at the beginning of each bull market.
The altcoin cycle signal has just flipped from bitcoin to altcoin season.
The first rally in August saw altcoins stay relatively flat while BTC moved.
However, today's rally has ignited the full breadth of the altcoin market.
$BTC trades near $86k after a Sunday rally lifted the weekly close about 2% higher.
Derivatives positioning eased back into its normal range and ETF inflows cooled, while on-chain activity, new capital and profit-taking all run hot.
https://glassno.de/4zctuPd
$BTC's largest overhead liquidation cluster sits near $90k.
If price touches this level, leveraged shorts will be forced to close their positions.
Zoom into the last two months and smaller clusters can be seen around $83k and $75k.
Either side could speed up the next move.
The market repriced the odds of an October Fed hike from 66% to 22% this week.
Here is our commentary on the repricing as it happened and what Bitcoin did.
https://glassno.de/pricing-out-the-hike
Sellers stepped aside and $BTC ran higher.
The asks at $85k were partly filled and the rest pulled, which left little resistance above.
Price has now reached the next cluster of sell orders around $87k.
It is about half the size of the old wall.
Bitcoin's relative strength is back.
In June, $BTC beat the S&P 500 on just 1/5th of trading days, the weakest stretch in six years.
Its win rate is now back above 50% with stocks flat.
This points to an idiosyncratic bid for Bitcoin itself.
There are several ways to earn yield on Bitcoin.
In our latest report with @xapobankapp, we examine the Bitcoin yield landscape in detail.
$BTC has stalled under its heaviest supply cluster.
More long-term holder coins sit at $84k–$85k than at any other price on the chart.
Price needs to break through and hold above this level for the rally to continue.
Spot traders are turning to altcoins.
Total spot volume now runs close to 4x Bitcoin's, the highest since September 2025.
Demand for higher risk like this has often lined up with local tops in $BTC.
This is the first $BTC bear market that never closed below the Realized Price.
This means that the average BTC holder stayed in profit this entire time.
More on the next levels, sell pressure and ETF flows in this week's Week On-chain 👇
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2102766576730812638
Only 9 of the top 50 altcoins have beaten $BTC since its all-time high.
ZEC leads by a wide margin, up 14x against Bitcoin.
HYPE, XMR and NEAR follow at 2–3x.
Short-term $BTC holders are back above the sell line.
Nevertheless, profit taking has stayed light.
More on this topic, as well as the levels to watch in this week's Week On-chain. 👇
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2102766576730812638
The four-year cycle playbook many relied on has not worked for this $BTC bear.
At this point, the last three were more than twice as deep and weeks from their lows.
This one is 30% below its high and rising.
A late drop to their depth looks less likely by the week.
Most altcoin holders are still sitting on losses.
The median coin has less than a quarter of its supply in profit.
Global market tops tend to occur once a majority of supply across the entire market is deep in profit.
That point is still a long way off.
$BTC has reclaimed every one of its long-term moving averages.
After around 300 days underneath them, this dynamic has now flipped.
Holding above them is what maintains a long-term uptrend.
$BTC remains in a bullish regime, according to various cost basis models and time frames.
Price is trading above both the True Market Mean and the short-term holder cost basis.
Holding above these levels is what historically defines a sustained uptrend.