46723
Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
#BTC DATs continue selective but steady BTC accumulation. Flows remain modest compared to late-2024 peaks, yet buying has broadened across miners, tech, and financial firms. Despite volatility, balance-sheet adoption remains a quiet structural tailwind.
📈https://glassno.de/48KEyre
Unrealized losses across the crypto ecosystem have recently climbed to ~$350B, including ~$85B in BTC alone.
With multiple on-chain indicators signalling shrinking liquidity across the board, the market is likely entering a high-volatility regime in the weeks ahead.
📊http://glassno.de/4oRkiua
The Week On-Chain 49, 2025
#Bitcoin is stuck in a fragile range as losses climb, LTH selling grows, and demand stays weak. ETFs, liquidity, and futures remain muted while options price short-term volatility ahead of FOMC.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains in a structurally fragile range, pressured by rising unrealized losses, elevated realized loss realization, and significant profit-taking by long-term holders. Despite this, patient demand has kept price anchored above the True Market Mean.
- The market’s inability to reclaim key thresholds, particularly the 0.75 quantile and the STH Cost Basis, reflects persistent sell pressure from both recent top buyers and seasoned holders. A near-term retest of these levels is possible if seller exhaustion emerges.
- Off-chain indicators remain weak. ETF flows are negative, spot liquidity is thin, and futures positioning shows little speculative conviction, leaving price more sensitive to macro catalysts.
- Options markets reveal defensive positioning, with traders bidding short-dated IV, accumulating both wings, and showing consistent demand for downside protection. The surface signals short-term caution but more balanced sentiment across longer maturities.
- With the FOMC meeting as the final major catalyst of the year, implied volatility is expected to decay into late December. Market direction hinges on whether liquidity improves and sellers relent, or whether the current time-driven bearish pressure persists.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
📢 Interpolated IV Metrics
Skew is widely used to read crypto options, but it captures only one slice of a much richer volatility surface. Interpolated IV provides a structured view of how the market prices risk across specific deltas and maturities.
We’ve expanded our options coverage with standardized IV curves for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB & PAXG, mapped at:
• 5D–50D deltas
• 1w, 1m, 3m, 6m maturities
• Calls & Puts
Why does this matter?
Raw options data is uneven as strikes are irregular, expiries are thin, and liquidity shifts throughout the day. Interpolation cleans the surface, fills gaps, and provides consistent values at every timestamp.
This allows you to:
🔹Pinpoint where the market is paying for downside protection
🔹Track shifts in call-side demand and rotations into higher-beta assets
🔹Compare crash risk across assets
🔹Monitor short-term stress vs longer-term repricing through the term structure
🔹Use clean, stable IV series directly in systematic strategies
📰 glassno.de/48Gquiw
The Week On-Chain 48, 2025
Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but market structure now mirrors Q1 2022 with over 25% of supply underwater. Demand is weakening across ETFs, spot, and futures, while options show compressed volatility & cautious positioning.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but the broader structure now resembles Q1 2022 with >25% of supply underwater.
- Capital momentum remains positive, supporting consolidation, though far below mid-2025 peaks.
- 0.75–0.85 quantile band ($96.1K–$106K) is the key zone for restoring structure; failure increases downside risk.
- ETF flows turn negative, and spot CVD rolls over, signalling weakening demand.
- Futures open interest declines and funding resets neutral, reflecting a risk-off stance.
- Options market sees IV compression, softer skew, and flows shifting from puts to cautious call selling.
- Options appear underpriced, with realised volatility exceeding implied, putting pressure on short-gamma traders.
- Overall, the market remains fragile, dependent on holding key cost-basis zones unless macro shocks break the balance.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
The Glassnode x Fasanara Q4 2025 Digital Assets Report is live!
🔗 Download your copy at https://glassno.de/4pIbsQ1.
Drawing on Glassnode’s data and analytics and Fasanara’s trading perspective, we outline how market structure has shifted across spot, ETFs, futures, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.
From Bitcoin’s spot-driven expansion to the rise of tokenization and decentralized perps, the market is reshaping around new structural anchors. For professionals navigating a fast-changing market, the report offers a consolidated view of the digital asset ecosystem.
📄 Read more on Glassnode Insights → https://glassno.de/3MzXJwk
A new cost-basis cluster formed after Bitcoin’s drop into the low-$80K region, showing fresh accumulation at these levels. This zone is now one of the densest on the heatmap and could act as a strong support area, likely to be defended by recent buyers.
📉https://glassno.de/48mkMlC
XRP’s futures OI has fallen from 1.7B XRP in early October to 0.7B XRP (~59% flush-out).
Paired with the funding rate dropping from ~0.01% to 0.001% (7D-SMA), 10/10 marked a structural pause in XRP speculators’ appetite to bet aggressively on upside.
📉 http://glassno.de/4pwZ0Cw
$BTC sits beneath every short-term holder's realized price but remains well above deeper realized levels, leaving the market in no-man’s-land.
Regaining these bands would mark the first meaningful sign of structural recovery.
📉https://glassno.de/4rlNr2Y
The $2.0 level remains a major psychological zone for Ripple holders.
Since early 2025, each time XRP has retested $2, investors have realized $0.5B–$1.2B per week in losses.
This underscores how heavily this level influences spending behavior.
📉http://glassno.de/4obHgvn
The shift from a confirmed bull to a true bear market often comes after multiple major on-chain price models fail:
🔴STH Cost Basis: $109.8K
🟡Active Investors Mean: $88.6K
🟢True Market Mean: $82K
🔵Realized Price: $56.1K
We are now testing Active Investors Mean. A breakdown below both Active Investors and the True Market Mean would mark the first major confirmation of a deeper bear trend since May 2022.
📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
#BTC has broken below the 0.75 cost-basis quantile, a level that has historically marked bear-market territory. Across cycles, reclaiming and holding above it has been key to restoring bullish structure. Bulls will want to see this level regained.
📉https://glassno.de/4o6648m
Bitcoins' downtrend pushed prices to $93K, with momentum oversold and sell-side pressure easing. Flows and on-chain activity have softened, suggesting early signs of stabilization in the $94K–$100K range.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/49uahz3
Long-term #BTC holders are accelerating their distribution, with supply declining fast and net position change falling sharply into negative territory.
LTHs are booking profits as bulls defend $100k.
https://glassno.de/3XrNOLy
The majority of #Bitcoin supply sits in long-term holder’s hands, while Ethereum shows greater turnover and productive use on-chain. In our joint research with Keyrock, we assess how BTC and ETH supply dynamics shape their respective store-of-value profiles. Grounded in on-chain data, our analysis cuts through the narratives, showing Bitcoin’s dominant savings-asset profile and Ethereum’s hybrid position as both reserve capital and working collateral within DeFI.
Read the report for full insights: https://glassno.de/47F7FNu
$ETH Spot ETFs are showing the first signs of life after weeks of steady outflows.
Modest inflows are starting to return, hinting at easing redemption pressure. A sustained move back into positive territory would signal improving demand into year-end.
📊https://glassno.de/48HBugV
Liquidity can be assessed through several measures, including the Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio (30D-SMA).
For Solana, this ratio has traded below 1 since mid-November, meaning realized losses now exceed realized profits. This signals that liquidity has contracted back to levels typically seen in deep bear markets.
📉 glassno.de/3MoCPAt
Bitcoin bounced toward $94K, but the market remains unconvinced. Momentum improved and volumes rose, yet Spot CVD and OI fell. Options show demand for downside hedging, while ETF outflows highlight softer appetite.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4a8QGEV
Since mid-November, BTC has fallen below the 0.75 quantile, putting >25% of supply underwater.
This leaves the market in a fragile balance between top-buyer capitulation risk and seller-exhaustion bottom formation.
At $93K, price remains highly sensitive to macro shocks until the market can reclaim the 0.75 quantile ($95.8K) and then the 0.85 quantile (~$106.2K).
📉glassno.de/3KEPxKM
Tune in to our webinar with Keyrock at 4pm CET today, where Glassnode Analyst Chris Beamish and Keyrock Digital Asset Researcher Ben Harvey will unpack the data and market forces behind BTC’s and ETH’s diverging usage patterns.
🔗 Event link: https://glassno.de/4pPHt98
$Bitcoin shows early stabilisation as RSI rebounds and CVD turns positive, but spot volume, on-chain activity and liquidity remain weak. ETFs see inflows, yet futures de-risk and short-term capital dominates.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/48cCFEP
🔄 Update:
With spot price now at $90.9K, several key levels have shifted:
🔴 STH Cost Basis: $104.2K
--- Spot Price: $90.9K ---
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $88.1k
🟢True Market Mean: $81.7K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.4K
📊http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
Breaking above the top-buyers’ supply clusters is a key prerequisite for regaining momentum toward a new ATH.
The major immediate clusters sit at $93k–$96K & $100k–$108K, where typically some degree of resistance from recent buyers is expected.
📊 glassno.de/4p2DTbn
Uncertainty is back, the perfect time to level up your access to reliable data.
Lock in 30% off Glassnode Advanced.
Track the signals that guide thousands of professionals in forming a market view.
Upgrade now → https://glassno.de/44obtAj
Ends on #CyberMonday
$BTC broke below $90K and tested $80K before a mild rebound. Momentum stays oversold but shows early signs ofnexhaustion. Derivs and spot flows remain weak, pointing to orderly de-risking.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/49yJ5iz
The Week On-Chain 46, 2025
BTC has broken below key cost-basis levels amid weak spot demand and steady ETF outflows. Derivatives remain muted, with declining OI, cycle-low funding, and options activity skewed toward downside protection.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken below the STH cost basis and the −1 STD band, placing recent buyers under stress; the $95K–$97K region now acts as key resistance, and a reclaim would mark an early step toward restoring market structure.
- Spot demand remains weak, with US spot ETF flows deeply negative and no incremental bid emerging from TradFi allocators.
- Speculative leverage continues to unwind, reflected in declining futures open interest and funding rates falling to cycle lows across the top 500 assets.
- Options markets have sharply repriced risk, with implied volatility rising across maturities and skew remaining deeply negative as traders pay significant premiums for downside protection.
- Put-dominant flow and demand at key strikes (e.g., 90K) reinforce a defensive positioning regime, with traders hedging more actively rather than adding upside exposure.
- DVOL has returned to monthly highs, tying together the broad repricing of risk across volatility, skew, and flow metrics and signalling expectations for elevated near-term volatility.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
The share of XRP supply in profit has fallen to 58.5%, the lowest since Nov 2024, when price was $0.53.
Today, despite trading ~4× higher ($2.15), 41.5% of supply (~26.5B XRP) sits in loss — a clear sign of a top-heavy and structurally fragile market dominated by late buyers.
📉 http://glassno.de/48pwOef
At $96K, nearly 99% of investors who accumulated Bitcoin within the past 155 days are now holding at a loss
📉https://glassno.de/47GyFfn
The Week On-Chain 45, 2025
#Bitcoin consolidates near $103k, with support at $100K and resistance at $106K. ETF outflows, low leverage, and strong put demand highlight a cautious market still searching for conviction.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains in a mild bearish phase, trading between $97K and $111.9K, with resistance near $116K marked by top-buyers’ supply cluster.
- Seller exhaustion and renewed accumulation near $100K provide short-term support but lack strong follow-through demand.
- A dense supply cluster between $106K–$118K continues to cap rallies as investors exit near breakeven.
- ETF flows have turned modestly negative, reflecting fading institutional demand and a cautious risk appetite.
- Futures markets show muted funding rates and low open interest, signalling subdued speculative activity across both Bitcoin and altcoins.
- Options traders maintain a defensive stance, with put protection concentrated around $100K, while the 25-delta skew remains a key gauge for sentiment shifts.
- Overall, the market is consolidating within a defined range, awaiting stronger inflows or macro catalysts to break out of the current equilibrium.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
Since early October, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have shown signs of weakness, with a few positive days, but mostly net outflows reaching up to -$700M per day.
This trend points to a broader de-risking phase among ETF investors.
📉https://glassno.de/4oN6SQ5