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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
Ethereum network fees just hit their lowest level since May 2017.
📉http://glassno.de/4agE1PG
#BTC has pulled back toward $85K over the past week, with momentum softening. Spot volume remains stable but subdued, reinforcing a consolidation phase rather than a decisive trend move.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/49RtNnr
The Week On-Chain 3, 2026
#Bitcoin is consolidating in a low-volume regime, with easing spot pressure, light leverage, and volatility priced as short-lived rather than structural.
Executive Summary
- On-chain structure remains fragile, with price hovering around key cost-basis levels and limited confirmation of durable long-term holder conviction.
- Supply overhang persists, as recent buyers continue to face overhead resistance, constraining upside follow-through and keeping rallies vulnerable to distribution.
- Spot flows have turned more constructive, with sell-side pressure easing across major venues, though accumulation remains selective rather than aggressive.
- Corporate treasury activity is sporadic, characterised by isolated, event-driven inflows rather than coordinated accumulation, leaving corporates a marginal demand source.
- Derivatives participation remains thin, with futures volume compressed and leverage deployment subdued, reinforcing a low-engagement market regime.
- Options markets are pricing risk only at the front end, with short-dated implied volatility reacting while medium- and long-dated tenors remain anchored.
- Hedging demand briefly intensified, as reflected by a spike in the put/call volume ratio, but has since normalised, signalling tactical rather than structural risk aversion.
- Dealer gamma positioning has skewed lower, reducing mechanical support for price stability and reinforcing sensitivity to liquidity shocks.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
STH-NUPL, which measures the unrealized profit or loss of new investors relative to STH-market cap, indicates new investors have been carrying net unrealized losses since November 2025.
A recovery above ~$98K appears to be the minimum threshold required to return this cohort to a net profitable state.
📉http://glassno.de/4jQjx3u
Ethereum’s Month-over-Month Activity Retention shows a sharp spike in the “New” cohort, indicating a surge in first-time interacting addresses over the past 30 days.
This reflects a notable influx of new wallets engaging with the Ethereum network, rather than activity being driven solely by existing participants.
📈 http://glassno.de/3ZaUPRQ
The Week On-Chain 2, 2026
Bitcoin has entered the new year with constructive momentum, posting two consecutive higher highs and extending price to $98k. This early-year advance, however, has carried price directly into a historically significant supply zone.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains locked in a low-volatility consolidation regime, with compressed ranges masking rising underlying fragility and unresolved directional conviction.
- Options markets continue to price elevated downside convexity, signalling that tail-risk demand remains firm despite improving spot and derivatives positioning.
- Volatility risk is being deferred rather than resolved, leaving the market vulnerable to abrupt repricing once liquidity conditions shift.
- Institutional balance-sheet flows have stabilised following a full de-risking cycle, but accumulation remains uneven and event-driven rather than structurally persistent.
-Spot market behaviour has turned constructive, with Binance and aggregate exchange flows transitioning into buy-dominant regimes while Coinbase sell pressure has materially eased.
- The recent push into the $96K region was mechanically driven by a derivatives-led short squeeze on comparatively thin futures volume.
- Long-term holder distribution has slowed, with cost-basis clusters and confidence bands forming a developing structural price floor.
- Broader market direction remains increasingly dependent on liquidity conditions and derivatives positioning until persistent spot accumulation re-emerges.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
As Long-Term Holders (LTHs) transition from a high-spending regime in H2 2025 to lower spending in Jan 2026, their profit-taking volumes have cooled to levels typically observed in shallow bear phases.
Such conditions are often associated with heightened uncertainty and tend to emerge during mid-bull market pauses or the early stages of deeper bear markets.
📉 glassno.de/4pzkKgI
#BTC consolidates after rejection from the upper-$90Ks as momentum cools and RSI slips back into neutral. Price remains range-bound across the mid-$80Ks to low-$90Ks, signalling a pause in directional conviction.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse
https://glassno.de/4qp3VXk
The Week On-Chain 1, 2026
Bitcoin enters 2026 with a cleaner market structure after a major year-end reset. Profit-taking has eased, and risk appetite is cautiously rebuilding, but reclaiming key cost-basis levels remains critical for confirming sustained upside.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin enters 2026 following a decisive drawdown and consolidation phase, with on-chain metrics indicating reduced profit-taking pressure and early signs of structural stabilization around the lower end of the current range.
- A large volume of overhead supply remains clustered across the upper range, continuing to cap breakout attempts and reinforcing the importance of key recovery thresholds being reclaimed before trend expansion can resume.
- Corporate treasury demand continues to provide stabilizing support beneath price but remains episodic rather than persistently structural.
- US spot ETF flows have begun to re-emerge following late-2025 outflows. At the same time, futures open interest has stabilized and is turning higher, reflecting early signs of renewed institutional participation and rebuilding derivatives engagement.
-The largest options open interest reset on record has cleared more than 45% of outstanding positioning, removing structural hedging constraints and providing a cleaner read on fresh risk expression.
- Implied volatility has likely bottomed, with early-year taker demand gently lifting the volatility surface while remaining near the lower bound of its recent range.
- Skew continues to normalize as put premia compress and call participation rises, while new-year options flows tilt increasingly toward calls, signalling a rotation away from defensive hedging toward upside participation.
- Dealer gamma has flipped short between $95K–$104K, mechanically reinforcing upside price movement during strength, while call premium behaviour around the $95K strike suggests patience among upside participants with limited profit-taking.
- Collectively, the market is transitioning from defensive deleveraging into selective re-risking, beginning in 2026 with a cleaner structure and renewed optionality for expansion.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
#BTC is stabilising within the $80K–$95K range as momentum recovers and sell pressure fades. Spot liquidity is thin, open interest is rebuilding cautiously, and options markets point to near-term volatility.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4jq5QIr
🔄 Update:
With the spot price trading around $86.4K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly:
🔴 STH Cost Basis: $101.8K
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.9k
--- Spot Price: $86.4K ---
🟢True Market Mean: $81.3K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.3K
📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
#BTC DATs continue selective but steady BTC accumulation. Flows remain modest compared to late-2024 peaks, yet buying has broadened across miners, tech, and financial firms. Despite volatility, balance-sheet adoption remains a quiet structural tailwind.
📈https://glassno.de/48KEyre
Unrealized losses across the crypto ecosystem have recently climbed to ~$350B, including ~$85B in BTC alone.
With multiple on-chain indicators signalling shrinking liquidity across the board, the market is likely entering a high-volatility regime in the weeks ahead.
📊http://glassno.de/4oRkiua
The Week On-Chain 49, 2025
#Bitcoin is stuck in a fragile range as losses climb, LTH selling grows, and demand stays weak. ETFs, liquidity, and futures remain muted while options price short-term volatility ahead of FOMC.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains in a structurally fragile range, pressured by rising unrealized losses, elevated realized loss realization, and significant profit-taking by long-term holders. Despite this, patient demand has kept price anchored above the True Market Mean.
- The market’s inability to reclaim key thresholds, particularly the 0.75 quantile and the STH Cost Basis, reflects persistent sell pressure from both recent top buyers and seasoned holders. A near-term retest of these levels is possible if seller exhaustion emerges.
- Off-chain indicators remain weak. ETF flows are negative, spot liquidity is thin, and futures positioning shows little speculative conviction, leaving price more sensitive to macro catalysts.
- Options markets reveal defensive positioning, with traders bidding short-dated IV, accumulating both wings, and showing consistent demand for downside protection. The surface signals short-term caution but more balanced sentiment across longer maturities.
- With the FOMC meeting as the final major catalyst of the year, implied volatility is expected to decay into late December. Market direction hinges on whether liquidity improves and sellers relent, or whether the current time-driven bearish pressure persists.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
📢 Interpolated IV Metrics
Skew is widely used to read crypto options, but it captures only one slice of a much richer volatility surface. Interpolated IV provides a structured view of how the market prices risk across specific deltas and maturities.
We’ve expanded our options coverage with standardized IV curves for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB & PAXG, mapped at:
• 5D–50D deltas
• 1w, 1m, 3m, 6m maturities
• Calls & Puts
Why does this matter?
Raw options data is uneven as strikes are irregular, expiries are thin, and liquidity shifts throughout the day. Interpolation cleans the surface, fills gaps, and provides consistent values at every timestamp.
This allows you to:
🔹Pinpoint where the market is paying for downside protection
🔹Track shifts in call-side demand and rotations into higher-beta assets
🔹Compare crash risk across assets
🔹Monitor short-term stress vs longer-term repricing through the term structure
🔹Use clean, stable IV series directly in systematic strategies
📰 glassno.de/48Gquiw
The 30D-SMA of netflows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs remains negative. There is no sign of renewed demand.
📉 http://glassno.de/4qipTdW
The recent attempt to move above STH-cost basis ($98.4K) was capped by sell-side pressure from 3–6 month holders, whose average cost basis sits near $112.6K.
This cohort ramped up spending into the move, realizing elevated losses and weighing on upside momentum.
📰http://glassno.de/3ZosaJ7
#BTC has pulled back from recent highs of $98K, slipping back into the low-$90Ks. Momentum has cooled but remains above neutral, pointing to consolidation rather than trend deterioration.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4r1zbLM
The current market structure for XRP closely resembles that of February 2022.
Investors active over the 1W–1M window are now accumulating below the cost basis of the 6M–12M cohort.
As this structure persists, psychological pressure on top buyers continues to build over time.
📉glassno.de/3Nu6Vmu
🔄 Update:
With the spot price surging to $97K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly:
🔴 STH Cost Basis: $98.4K
--- Spot Price: $97K ---
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.8k
🟢True Market Mean: $81.1K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.2K
📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
Using the newly launched Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap, the recent $80K–$95K consolidation reflects a top-heavy cost-basis structure meeting renewed demand above $80K.
Overhead supply from recent buyers has absorbed bounce attempts, anchoring price despite sustained buying interest following the drawdown.
📉 glassno.de/4syBK9D
Long-term $BTC holder distribution has decelerated. Net outflows have rolled over from extreme levels, indicating that the market is progressively absorbing long-held supply and that a large portion of overhead supply may now be largely worked through.
📈 glassno.de/3ZdVEct
🔄 Update:
With the spot price trading around $89.9K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly:
🔴 STH Cost Basis: $98.9K
--- Spot Price: $89.9K ---
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.7k
🟢True Market Mean: $81.0K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.2K
📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
The 7D-SMA funding rate across major perpetual markets has improved modestly.
Mean funding recovered from ~0% to ~0.005%, before easing to ~0.003% over the past 24 hours.
Historically, sustained market advances tend to coincide with funding rates holding consistently above ~0.01%, suggesting current conditions remain supportive but not yet decisive.
📉 http://glassno.de/3L50Ig9
The Week On-Chain 50, 2025
Bitcoin remains trapped in a fragile range as heavy overhead supply, rising loss realization, and fading demand cap recovery attempts. Price rejection near $93k and support near $81k define the battlefield, while spot, futures, and options positioning all point to a range-bound, time-driven market.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains confined within a structurally fragile range, with recent rejection near $93k and a gradual drift lower toward $85.6k highlighting persistent overhead supply. Dense distribution between $93k–$120k continues to cap recovery attempts, while failure to reclaim the 0.75 quantile (~$95k) and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101.5k keeps upside momentum constrained.
- Despite sustained sell pressure, patient buyer demand has so far defended the True Market Mean near $81.3k, preventing a deeper breakdown. This balance reflects a market under time-driven stress, where rising unrealized and realized losses increase psychological pressure on investors.
- Spot demand remains selective and short-lived, with limited follow-through across major venues and no coordinated expansion in accumulation during recent pullbacks. Corporate treasury flows remain episodic, contributing to volatility but not providing consistent structural support.
- Futures markets continue to de-risk, with open interest trending lower and funding rates near neutral, signalling a lack of speculative conviction rather than forced deleveraging. Leverage is no longer driving downside, but neither is it supporting upside.
- Options markets reinforce a range-bound regime. Front-end volatility has compressed post-FOMC, downside risk remains priced but stable, and flows favour premium harvesting over directional bets, with large December expiries pinning price action into year-end.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
#Bitcoin rejected at $94K and fell to $87K, weakening momentum as sell pressure rose and liquidity thinned. Derivatives and on-chain signals remain cautious, keeping the market vulnerable to further downside.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4qeiigE
$ETH Spot ETFs are showing the first signs of life after weeks of steady outflows.
Modest inflows are starting to return, hinting at easing redemption pressure. A sustained move back into positive territory would signal improving demand into year-end.
📊https://glassno.de/48HBugV
Liquidity can be assessed through several measures, including the Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio (30D-SMA).
For Solana, this ratio has traded below 1 since mid-November, meaning realized losses now exceed realized profits. This signals that liquidity has contracted back to levels typically seen in deep bear markets.
📉 glassno.de/3MoCPAt
Bitcoin bounced toward $94K, but the market remains unconvinced. Momentum improved and volumes rose, yet Spot CVD and OI fell. Options show demand for downside hedging, while ETF outflows highlight softer appetite.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4a8QGEV
Since mid-November, BTC has fallen below the 0.75 quantile, putting >25% of supply underwater.
This leaves the market in a fragile balance between top-buyer capitulation risk and seller-exhaustion bottom formation.
At $93K, price remains highly sensitive to macro shocks until the market can reclaim the 0.75 quantile ($95.8K) and then the 0.85 quantile (~$106.2K).
📉glassno.de/3KEPxKM