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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
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🔸Digital Asset Research Provider of the Year
🔸Solution Provider of the Year: Data and Research
It's a major recognition of our efforts to raise the bar for crypto market intelligence. Thank you for being a part of this journey.
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The Week On-Chain, Week 11, 2025
The Bitcoin market continues to adjust to its new price range after experiencing a -30% correction. Liquidity conditions are also contracting in both on-chain and futures markets. Additionally, Long-Term Holders remain inactive, reinforcing a picture of a sluggish market and sideways price action.
Executive Summary
🔸Liquidity continues to contract across on-chain and spot markets, with net capital inflows grinding to a halt, and exchange inflows slowing down.
🔸Key options metrics express a preference for downside risk aversion, with the implied volatility priced into put options resulting in elevated premiums.
🔸Short-term investors are experiencing significant pressure to lock in losses.
🔸Long-Term Holder activity remains largely subdued, with a notable decline in their sell-side pressure.
Read the full report here.
View the charts from this edition here.
Are Metaverse tokens still relevant to investors?
Our latest analysis applies the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) framework to major Metaverse assets like SAND, MANA, and AXS - offering a new perspective on investor conviction and engagement.
This article explores:
🔸How has the cost basis of long-term holders evolved over time?
🔸Are certain investor cohorts still accumulating Metaverse tokens?
🔸What can cost basis trends reveal about the potential for renewed interest?
Read the full report here.
📢 New Metric Release: Introducing On-Chain Retention
What is On-Chain Retention?
Retention is a fundamental metric for assessing engagement and sustainability of a business, but until now, digital assets lacked a robust framework for measuring it.
Glassnode introduces a solution to this problem with On-Chain Retention - a set of metrics tracking user engagement and investor loyalty across BTC, ETH, and 700+ ERC-20 tokens.
Why does this matter?
Traditional on-chain metrics track activity and balances, but they don’t categorize users based on commitment.
On-Chain Retention fills this gap by tracking addresses across intuitive categories such as new, retained, resurrected or churned over time.
How can investors use this?
✔️Distinguish real demand from speculation
✔️Detect early signs of capital flight and sell pressure
✔️Compare engagement and loyalty across assets
Read the full research article to learn how On-Chain Retention works and how to use it in practice.
📊 Who is realizing the most losses in Bitcoin’s latest sell-off?
Between Feb 25-27, over $2.16B in realized losses came from the most recent market entrants.
We break down the losses by age cohorts, contrast with prior peaks, and assess the market impact:
🟠1d-1w cohort: $927M (42.85% of young cohort losses)
🟡1w-1m cohort: $678M (31.3%)
🟣1m-3m cohort: $257M (11.9%)
🔴24h cohort: $322M (14.0%)
Bottomline: The largest capitulations came from those who bought BTC within the past week (‼️)
In contrast, losses among those who held BTC for 3m-6m or longer remain negligible:
🔵3m-6m cohort: $6.5M (0.3% of young cohort losses)
🟢6m-12m cohort: $3.2M (0.15%)
This suggests that those who entered in H2 2024 or earlier are largely holding, while more recent buyers are exiting under pressure.
Across all cohorts, Feb 26 was still the largest single-day sell-off in months, with $1.13B in aggregate realized losses:
🔹Feb 3: $848M (-25%)
🔹Aug 6: $2.02B (+79%)
🔹July 5: $1.3B (+15%)
Realized Loss by Age chart.
📢 Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) now includes Ethereum, ERC-20, and SPL tokens!
Previously exclusive to Bitcoin, this innovative tool now provides a clearer view of investor positioning across multiple asset classes.
🔹 Identify key support and resistance levels 🔹 Track accumulation and distribution trends 🔹 Now fully accessible via the Glassnode API
Learn more in this dedicated article.
Explore the expanded dashboard.
The Week On-Chain - Week 07, 2025
Bitcoin is trading in the $93k-$97k range, leading to a wider digital asset market cooldown. Capital inflows are weakening, and derivatives activity is declining. Short-term holder accumulation patterns somewhat resemble May 2021, which was a relatively challenging set of market conditions.
Executive Summary
🔸After Bitcoin’s second attempt to break above $105k in late January, the market has entered a contraction phase, with monthly price momentum sharply declining across major assets.
🔸Solana has emerged as a market leader in capital inflows over the past two years, in contrast to Ethereum, which has comparatively struggled to attract sustained demand.
🔸Perpetual futures open interest has declined across Bitcoin (-11.1%), Ethereum (-23.8%), Solana (-6.2%), and Memecoins Index (-52.1%), reflecting a diminished appetite for leveraged speculation.
🔗Read the full report.
💡View all charts in this edition in The Week On-chain Dashboard.
Stablecoin circulating supply has increased by $16.97B since the start of 2025, rising from $194.2B to $211.2B. However, the pace of growth has varied, with a slowdown in early 2025 before picking up again in February.
Throughout November and December, stablecoins were growing by ~$450M per day. In January, the rate declined to ~$400M per day, but February has seen a rebound, with $541M per day. This suggests renewed liquidity expansion after a period of deceleration.
Momentum accelerated in mid-January as the 7-day average moved above the 30-day SMA, signaling increased short-term demand.
The Week On-Chain - Week 05, 2025
The regulatory environment surrounding Bitcoin is constantly changing, and new financial instruments such as derivatives and ETF products continue to develop. In this article, we analyze how the composition of digital asset investors is changing around it.
Executive Summary
🔸Bitcoin has evolved into a global asset with extremely deep liquidity, available 24/7, allowing investors to express their macroeconomic views even when traditional markets are closed.
🔸Bitcoin continues to prove itself as both a store of value asset, accruing over $850B in net capital inflows, and a medium of exchange asset, processing nearly $9B in economic volume per day.
🔸Multipple metrics show new demand remains elevated but is well below previous cycle peaks.
🔸Institutional investors are growing, reducing drawdown severity and compressing volatility over time.
🔗Read the full report.
💡View all charts in this edition in The Week On-chain Dashboard.
BTC balances on exchanges drop - does this mean we're in for a supply squeeze?
Not exactly. While exchange balances have fallen to 2.7M BTC (from 3.1M BTC in July 2024), most of this decline isn’t due to investor withdrawals but a shift in market structure.
📌 Key facts:
🔹The drop coincides with the launch of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.
🔹8 of 11 ETFs use Coinbase custody, meaning coins are moving from exchange wallets to institutional custodians.
🔹Glassnode classifies both under the ‘Coinbase entity’, impacting balance readings.
When adjusting for non-Coinbase ETFs (FBTC, HODL), the combined holdings of exchanges + ETF wallets remain around 3M BTC - the same level as January 2024.
Bottom line: The decline in exchange balances reflects a shift in asset custody rather than a net reduction in available supply.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain
Institutional capital flows, stablecoin dominance, and the rise of Layer-2s - these were the key forces shaping the digital asset markets over the past few months.
Our latest Guide to Crypto Markets, produced in collaboration with Coinbase Institutional, provides a comprehensive analysis of Q1 2025:
📌 Bitcoin ETFs saw record inflows, yet supply dynamics shifted as long-term holders took profits near all-time highs.
📌 Ethereum’s Layer-2 ecosystem expanded rapidly, with transactions up 41% in Q4 as users migrated to lower-cost environments.
📌 Stablecoins solidified their dominance, with supply surging 18% - reinforcing their role as a foundational liquidity layer for crypto markets.
The report equips institutional investors with a data-driven framework for navigating market structure, derivatives, liquidity trends, and onchain activity.
Download the full Q1 report here.
Bitcoin dominance is climbing again
After bottoming in December 2024 at ~54%, BTC dominance has surged past 57% in January 2025.
This mirrors the 2020 cycle, where BTC dominance bottomed in Nov '20 (~60%), then rallied to 69% in Jan '21 before starting to decline again.
In the last cycle, Bitcoin dominance peaked near 72%. Shortly after, BTC hit ~$40K - over 2x its prior cycle's ATH - but still far from the eventual $64K top. Dominance began dropping as BTC's price soared, signalling a shift in risk appetite toward riskier assets.
View Major Asset Dominance 📈
At the moment, $125K marks the current upper limit of Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) price action in bull market conditions, derived from an optimized framework using the STH cost basis ($88,517) as the baseline.
This approach accounts for Bitcoin’s evolving market conditions and shows that, in previous cycles, Bitcoin did not top before reaching this upper band - though it sometimes exceeded it temporarily.
In March 2024, the market tagged this level intra-cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin trades at $105,094 - 18.7% above the STH cost basis and well within bullish norms. However, if the price drops below $88,517, unrealized losses could trigger increased sell-side pressure.
Key thresholds for STHs:
- $125,653: Current upper band (bull market extremes).
- $88,517: Average cost basis.
- $68,549: Lower band (bear market lows).
As the STH cost basis rises, the upper band will adjust dynamically. Explore this chart here: https://glassno.de/4arR3bq
🔍 Optimizing Bitcoin MVRV Ratio for Refined Insights
Bitcoin’s market maturity is reflected in the declining peak values of its MVRV ratio, one of the key metrics for navigating market cycles:
🔹 2011: 8.07x
🔹 2014: 6.00x
🔹 2018: 4.81x
🔹 2021: 3.98x
🔹 2024: 2.78x (to date).
This trend highlights reduced volatility and speculative intensity as Bitcoin scales.
However, identifying actionable insights amid these diminishing peaks requires a more advanced approach.
At Glassnode, we’ve refined the MVRV Z-Score with optimized rolling windows, providing a more dynamic approach to analyzing market turning points.
Our latest analysis offers:
🔸Improved frameworks to navigate Bitcoin’s evolving market structure.
🔸Clearer thresholds for identifying bullish and bearish phases.
🔸Practical insights for institutional decision-making.
Explore how these insights can inform your strategy in our latest Week On-Chain.
As of January 13, 2025, stablecoin inflows have nearly stalled, with the market cap stabilizing at $189.1B and the 30-day net change down to +0.56%.
This marks a stark contrast to the November to December 2024 rally, when $27.35B in inflows (+16.9%) drove BTC from $67.8K to $106.1K (+56.5%), reaching a +10.67% 30-day net change at its peak.
By comparison, the January to March 2024 rally added $14.68B (+11.5%) in stablecoin liquidity, as BTC surged +74.5% to $69.5K. The fact that the late-2024 rally required almost 2x the capital inflow for a smaller price gain underscores the speculative demand and liquidity-driven momentum that has since cooled.
In total, $65B entered the space via stablecoins in 2024 - an amount comparable to the annual GDP of Lithuania.
Explore Stablecoins Aggregated Market Cap Percentage Change chart.
📊 SOL URPD: Identifying Key Support and Resistance Levels
Glassnode’s URPD metrics provide insights into price levels where supply is concentrated, helping investors gauge key levels of interest.
🔹 Support:
$112.10: 9.7M SOL (1.67% of supply) was acquired here. Since Jan 19, investors added 4M SOL, indicating strong conviction.
$94, $97, and $100 collectively hold 21M SOL (3.5%). If lost, downside risk increases due to low supply until $56.
🔹 Recent Accumulation:
$123 (16.2M SOL, 2.7%) and $126 (19M SOL, 3.2%) saw strong demand, potentially stabilizing the downtrend.
🔹 Resistance:
$135 holds 26.6M SOL, but $144 is crucial - 27M SOL (5% of supply) was acquired here, making it a significant test for further upside.
URPD was originally developed for Bitcoin but is now available for $SOL, $BNB, $TON, $DOGE, $TRX, and $XRP, offering investors granular insights to navigate key price levels.
Access URPD metric for Solana and other assets here.
How do early token holders impact market trends?
Early adopters often control a large share of a token’s supply, and their buying and selling behavior can strongly influence price movements.
Glassnode introduces a framework that helps traders anticipate market shifts by analyzing:
🔸Early Holder Balance – When are large holders selling?
🔸Herfindahl Index – How concentrated is token ownership?
🔸NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) – Are early adopters still in profit?
🔸Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) – Where did early holders accumulate, and when do they distribute?
By using these insights, traders can detect profit-taking trends, time exits more effectively, and avoid sharp corrections.
Read the full research breakdown here.
The Week On-Chain, Week 10, 2025
Bitcoin continues to face persistent sell pressure, especially from recent buyers. The asset has seen weak demand and fading accumulation since January. Short-term holders are capitulating, driving STH-SOPR into loss territory, mirroring the August 2024 crash to $49k.
Executive Summary
🔸Bitcoin entered a phase of strong investor distribution in early January, with the Accumulation Trend Score confirming persistent sell-side pressure.
🔸Heightened volatility, weak demand, and liquidity constraints have prevented meaningful accumulation from restarting, reinforcing downside risks.
🔸Panic-driven selling has intensified, with STH-SOPR spiking well below the break-even level of 1, signalling fear and loss realization among recent buyers.
🔸A custom SOPR-adjusted CDD metric we developed shows that the intensity of the sell-off mirrors past capitulation events, notably the one in August 2024, as the market plunged to $49k.
Read more in the latest Week On-Chain. Charts here.
🔍 Spotting Market Bottoms with On-Chain Data
Where do local bottoms form? Often in zones of maximum pain, when forced selling peaks. Our capitulation metric, based on Cost Basis Distribution, helps pinpoint these moments - offering data-driven insights into potential turning points.
📊 Key Benefits:
✔ Identify capitulation zones where selling pressure exhausts
✔ Track where distressed sellers exit and demand emerges
✔ Use on-chain data to navigate market turning points
Want to explore it yourself?
📖 Read more on Insights.
💡Try it on Google Colab: Backtest historical capitulation events hands-on.
The Week On-Chain, Week 08, 2025
Bybit’s historic $1.48B hack triggered panic withdrawals and a market-wide sell-off, pushing Bitcoin to $87K, 20.2% below its ATH. As a result, new investors faced severe unrealized losses, and with the STH-MVRV at 0.95, loss realization intensified. Without a strong demand catalyst, the downtrend may continue.
Executive Summary
🔸Bybit Hack: A smart contract exploit drained 403,996 ETH (~$1.13B) from Bybit’s cold wallets, triggering $4.3B in outflows across Bitcoin and stablecoins.
🔸Market Sell-Off: Sentiment collapsed, with Bitcoin down -13.6%, Ethereum -22.9%, Solana -40%, and Meme Coins -36.9%, resetting momentum to April 2024 levels.
🔸Bitcoin Weakness: The drop pushed BTC into the $70K-$88K realized supply “air gap,” initially driven by long-term holder sell-offs and worsened by the Bybit hack.
🔸STH Pressure: STH-MVRV at 0.95 shows recent buyers 5% underwater, with profitability down 15.8%, signaling heavy unrealized losses.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain
Bitcoin’s momentum has stalled after an attempt to push into price discovery.
After a strong rally, BTC is now down 5.9% since early February, while ETH and SOL have dropped 16.9% and 33.1%. Memecoins, which surged +90.2% in late 2024, have now corrected -37.4%.
Diverging Performance Since 2023
🔹 Bitcoin → Trading 3.4x above April 2023 🔹 Solana → Peaked at 11.8x, now at 7.6x 🔹 Ethereum → Struggling, ranging between 1.3x and 2.0x 🔹 Memecoins → Peaked at 5.2x, now the weakest sector.
Moreover, Ethereum & Memecoins capital flows have flipped negative, with capital outflows of -0.1% and -5.9%, respectively.
Create Your Own Cross-Sector Analysis
For this comparison, our analysts built a Memecoin Index, but you can compare any project with BTC, its L1, and sector benchmarks. With Glassnode Studio covering BTC, major L1s, 700+ ERC-20s, and 60+ SPL tokens, you can build your own cross-asset analysis—no coding required.
🔗 Start here.
Stage 2 of our TON Blockchain integration is live!
Glassnode now offers an expanded suite of on-chain and derivatives metrics for TON, providing deeper insights into its market activity, supply dynamics, and investor behavior.
Newly added metrics include:
🔹 Supply Last Active by Age Bands: track dormant vs. active supply
🔹 Futures OI & Volume: monitor derivatives activity
🔹 MVRV & SOPR: assess profitability and market cycles
Use these to analyze holding trends, liquidity, investor sentiment, and more!
Explore the full suite of TON metrics, starting with our dedicated Dashboard.
📢 New Report Release: Glassnode x Gemini - 2025 Crypto Asset Trends
Explore the forces shaping the crypto market in 2025 with our latest 35-page report, featuring:
🔸Retail investor resurgence
🔹Insights into derivatives and institutional participation
🔸Solana's rise compared to Ethereum
🔹ETF market impacts
🔸Memecoin sector analysis
🔹Regional adoption trends
Download the full report for comprehensive, data-driven insights.
As much as 7.91% of Bitcoin's supply - based on UTXOs' creation date - has already changed hands this year. At the same time, 31.34% of the supply was last transacted in 2024.
How does this compare to other post-halving years?
By February 2017, 13.95% of $BTC supply had changed hands while more than 29.27% of the supply was still coming from 2016.
In 2021, this figure was even higher at this point of the year, amounting to 16.34%, while 27.46% of supply belonged to 2020 buyers.
So 2025's lower turnover can signal both weaker speculative demand but also possibly conviction from 2024 holders - and an expectation of higher prices as the year unfolds.
View Relative Supply by Date Bands
The Week On-Chain, Week 4, 2025
The current bull market shows several structural similarities to the 2015–2018 cycle. We explore this idea from the perspective of the drawdown profile, price performance, and changes in the Realized Cap.
Executive Summary
🔸Cyclical Market Growth: The rate of Bitcoin price appreciation has declined cycle by cycle, reflecting a path into market maturity. The drawdown profile of this cycle thus far closely resembles that of the 2015–2017 cycle.
🔹Realized Cap Expansion: The Realized Cap has grown by 2.1x in this cycle so far, below the 5.7x peak of the last cycle and aligns with the 2015–2018 cycle at this stage. The euphoria phase has yet to fully impact Realized Cap, indicating potential room for further market expansion.
🔺Exchange Balances vs. ETF Wallets: We assess that the recent drop in exchange balances to 2.7M BTC is primarily due to supply migrating into ETF wallets, many of which are managed by custodians like Coinbase.
More insight in the latest Week On-Chain
Following the correction to $99k, the Bitcoin Seller Exhaustion Composite flashed an exhaustion signal, highlighting severe unrealized loss and investor capitulation across the weekly-monthly timeframe.
The Seller Exhaustion Composite is a framework which models the points of extreme financial pressure and reaction, based on three profit/loss metrics:
🔹MVRV Ratio which assesses the unrealized profit or loss held by investors within the cohort.
🔹SOPR which evaluates the average magnitude of profit or loss locked in by the cohort.
🔹Realized Loss which isolates the USD denominated magnitude of loss locked in by the cohort.
This model can be used across multiple timeframes and assets.
For further information on the Seller Exhaustion Composite, please visit our dedicated article: Identifying Seller Exhaustion
The Week On-Chain, Week 3, 2025
Following two months of consolidation, Bitcoin has broken upwards from its rangebound conditions and surged to a new ATH of $109k. In this article, we evaluate the conditions leading into this move to demonstrate signals of impending volatility.
Executive Summary
🔸Capital flows into Bitcoin remain positive, although they have declined in magnitude since first reaching $100k. This highlights a period of declining sell-side pressure as the market approaches a near-term equilibrium.
🔹Sell-side pressure from long-term investors has also declined, alongside volumes deposited to exchanges for sale.
🔸Several measures of volatility are tightening up, with the market trading within a historically narrow 60-day price range, often a sign that the market is almost ready to move again.
Read Week On-Chain and discover more insights
📊 Bitcoin Supply in Unrealized Loss: Insights into Market Stress
Historically, the number of $BTC held in unrealized loss provides a reference point for assessing market stress:
🔸 Bull markets: <4M BTC in loss. 🔹 Early bear markets: 4–8M BTC in loss.
Last week, market volatility pushed 2.0–3.5M BTC into loss, still lower than the 4M BTC seen during mid-2024 lows.
For context: 🔻 2018 bear market: 10.7M BTC in loss. 🔻 2020 COVID crash: 10.4M BTC in loss.
📉 Another view: The Relative Unrealized Loss metric (unrealized losses relative to market cap) peaked at ~4.3% in Q3 2024 - far below the 10%+ levels seen during past external shocks like COVID or the 2021 China mining ban.
This highlights a more resilient market structure in the current cycle.
🔗 Dive deeper into the data here:
Total Supply in Loss
Entity-Adjusted Relative Unrealized Loss
The Week On-Chain 2, 2025
As the Bitcoin market corrects from the $108k ATH, a significant proportion of froth has come out of the market, whilst demand remains relatively robust. Unrealized losses are primarily held by short-term holders; however, stress levels are relatively modest compared to previous drawdowns.
Executive Summary
🔹Bitcoin has entered a correction phase, trading -11% below its ATH of $108k but remaining above key support levels, retaining a constructive market structure.
🔹Z-Score analysis suggests cyclical highs typically align with various metrics trading 1.5 to 2.0σ above the mean, offering a framework to help navigate bullish market phases.
🔹Bitcoin's current price is around 10% above the Short-Term Holders' cost basis of $88.4k, underscoring a potential risk of downside if momentum stalls and price trades below this level.
🔹Unrealized losses are concentrated among short-term holders, with 2.0–3.5M BTC held underwater.
Read the full Week On-Chain and discover more insights.
Following a period of distribution into the ATH, Bitcoin Shrimps (< 1 BTC) are now accumulating coins at a rate of +17.6k BTC/Month.
The cohort now holds around 1.36M BTC, equivalent to 6.9% of the circulating supply.
Shrimp Net Position Change Chart