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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
Bitcoin has retested February highs just below 80K and is now consolidating slightly below this level.
Read the full Options Weekly here
First time since Oct 10: Moderate Strategy flips to high confidence. Risk Index at 0, signaling a cleared risk landscape.
After 7 years of research and extensive backtesting, we’re introducing
Bitcoin Vector: a systematic framework for #BTC exposure, validated across market cycles. ▶ https://glassno.de/3QxhI0I
Early $IBIT options flows show sharp swings in the put/call ratio, highlighting active positioning shifts as BTC trades near ~$70k.
We’ve expanded our options suite to cover $IBIT, bringing institutional-grade derivatives insights to the largest US spot BTC ETF.
📈https://glassno.de/3OSV2HN
Following recent positive momentum across crypto markets, ETH has reclaimed the 1-3 month holder cost basis at $2.3k.
So far, this structure is consistent with a bear market relief rally, comparable to the bounces observed in Q3-Q4 2022, rather than a structural trend reversal.
📉 glassno.de/3Oo9047
#BTC momentum breaks above prior highs as spot buying strengthens. Futures OI climbs while Options show easing bearish bias, and on-chain activity cools, pointing to consolidation with improving sentiment.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4mu0zkr
The Week On-Chain 14, 2026
Bouncing in a Bear
Bitcoin bounced from $67k to $72k, but weak spot demand and softer futures activity suggest the recovery still lacks strong conviction, even as ETF flows begin to turn modestly positive.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains within a subdued and low-conviction market environment, with weak spot activity and thinner derivatives participation continuing to limit upside follow-through.
- Spot volume remains soft, with Binance’s 30-day relative volume still sitting below the 1.0 baseline, highlighting a lack of strong organic demand beneath the recent stabilization in price.
- Futures volume has contracted sharply, with the 30-day average rolling over and trending lower, reinforcing the view that traders are stepping back rather than aggressively re-engaging after the recent deleveraging event.
Read the full Week On-Chain
#Bitcoin pushed higher in a sharp impulsive move, reclaiming the $69k level after consolidating above $65k, with momentum accelerating into the end of the period.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4ve4ea6
With more than half of the supply underwater, investors who accumulated above $2 over the past 12 months have been realizing losses at a pace of $20M – $110M/day since November 2025.
📉 glassno.de/4sf6paE
The big hands are bleeding.
With price contracting from ATH, Sharks & Whales (0.1K–10K BTC) are realizing losses at scale. The 7D-SMA of realized loss is now at >$200M/day.
Typical capitulation behaviour from larger entities.
📉 glassno.de/4v9gzw7
The Week On-Chain 13, 2026
No Catalyst, No Range Break
Bitcoin remains rangebound between $60k and $70k as spot demand shows early absorption and derivatives reset. Volatility cools and positioning balances, but without a clear catalyst, the market lacks the conviction needed for a sustained breakout.
Executive Summary
- Total Supply in Loss sits near 8.4M BTC, echoing the Q2 2022 structure, when roughly 3M BTC needed to be redistributed before the market could reclaim its cycle mid-line.
- Coinbase Spot CVD has turned marginally positive, suggesting spot buyers are starting to absorb sell-side pressure, though demand remains well below the levels typically seen at durable lows.
- Perpetual positioning is now far less momentum-driven, with bullish exposure being unwound and short-side interest re-emerging, leaving futures more balanced but also more cautious.
Read the full Week On-Chain
The 7D-SMA of US Spot ETF Netflow has turned negative since early last week, with 200–500 BTC in net daily outflows.
Small in magnitude, but persistent. A quiet signal that institutional demand conviction remains tentative at current price levels.
📉glassno.de/4bJAHgX
#BTC broke back below $70k before finding support near $65k, with a modest rebound back towards $67k into the weekend. Momentum remains tentative, with lower highs still defining the short-term structure.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4m8myxm
📊 Strategy Watch #2 is live
glassno.de/47m1Nbe
Built to address a clear demand for high-signal, impartial analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends in digital assets, Strategy Watch returns following strong feedback on the inaugural edition.
Inside the new edition:
🔹 All strategy types posted negative returns in February, except for one
🔹 A macro portfolio manager on navigating current geopolitical challenges
🔹 How 300+ managers expect the crypto market to perform over the next three months.
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New Metric: Accumulation Trend Score by Wallet Cohort
This metric breaks down 30D accumulation behaviour by entity size, combining participation rate and balance change into a single score.
Score near 1 🟦 larger entities accumulating.
Score near 0 🟥 distribution or inactivity.
📉 glassno.de/4uPYF1e
#BTC swung from $76k to $67k before rebounding to $70k. Spot and ETF demand cooled, derivatives turned more defensive, and on-chain activity stayed soft, pointing to a consolidative, cautious market backdrop.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4bDDYwL
Whales on Hyperliquid have been longing the breakout of the range. Their conviction and long positioning have steadily increased over the past two months, signaling strong bullish sentiment among big perp players.
📊https://glassno.de/495ArH0
The Week On-Chain 16, 2026
Mean Reclaimed, Rally on Trial
#BTC reclaims $78k as spot demand and ETF inflows return. Shorts build with negative funding, creating squeeze potential. Yet elevated realized profits and soft volatility signal caution, with upside near $80k facing resistance.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean at $78.1k for the first time since mid-January, a significant mean reversion, with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $80.1k now the immediate resistance ceiling.
- ETF flows have turned modestly positive again, with the 7-day moving average shifting back into inflow territory, signaling a tentative return of institutional demand after a prolonged period of outflows.
- Spot demand is showing early signs of recovery, with cumulative volume delta flipping higher and indicating renewed buyer aggression, particularly across offshore venues.
- Gamma and flow frame the setup: upside faces mechanical resistance near 80K, while a move back toward 75K carries higher downside acceleration risk.
Read the full Week On-Chain
The Week On-Chain 15, 2026
Approaching the Ceiling
#BTC holds ~$74K, ~5% below key $78K resistance. Spot and ETF demand improve, but profit-taking and cautious options positioning suggest a twitchy, flow-driven recovery lacking strong conviction.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has expanded to ~$74K, now 5.2% below the True Market Mean at $78.1K, which remains the key near-term resistance. Short-Term Holder Supply in Profit sits at 43.2%, leaving room for further upside before typical distribution thresholds are reached.
- Profit-taking activity is rising, with the 30D EMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio at 1.16, indicating investors are selling into strength. A sustained move above $78.1K will require the market to absorb this overhead supply.
- Institutional positioning is stabilizing, with ETF inflows and CME exposure rebounding. However, participation remains below prior highs, pointing to a cautious and selective re-engagement rather than a full risk-on shift.
Read the full Week On-Chain
Relative Unrealized Loss measures total unrealized loss as a % of market cap, a gauge of how deeply underwater the holder base sits.
As today:
SOL: 54.8%
XRP: 31.8%
BTC: 11.9%
ETH: 16.6%
The elevated loss levels in altcoins reflect how heavy the top is in these markets, where supply is more concentrated among buyers who entered near cycle highs.
📉 glassno.de/4ejyOce
LTH Relative Unrealized Loss captures the total unrealized loss held by Long-Term Holders, normalized by market cap, reflecting the depth of pain among the most convicted cohort.
The 30D-SMA currently sits at 14% of market cap, substantially below the levels at which prior bear markets have historically resolved (~70%)
📉 http://glassno.de/4sXmxyH
USVIX, a TradFi volatility indicator tracking expected 30-day fear in the S&P 500 options market, is now live on @glassnode
.
The timing could not be more relevant.
Since the US Spot Bitcoin ETFs emerged, the link between BTC and US equities has only grown stronger. Stock market fear is now Bitcoin's fear, too.
📉 glassno.de/4dyORCK
As price probed the $70K region, Realized Profit/hour spiked above $20M, signalling a local exhaustion.
A pattern consistent since February 2026:
Every approach to the $70k–$80K band meets thin liquidity and profit-taking pressure, capping the bounce.
📉 glassno.de/4c3bGfu
With price trading at $1.33, the Percent of XRP Supply in Profit has declined to 43.4%, the lowest since July 2024.
Читать полностью…
Bitcoin Block 943,400
Only 1,600 blocks (~11 days) until we hit the halfway point to the next halving.
Block 945,000 is coming.
📉 glassno.de/4v5TASP
The 30D-SMA of total daily transaction fees has declined to 2.5 BTC/day, the lowest level since March 2011.
Fee compression of this magnitude reflects a significant reduction in on-chain demand for block space, consistent with subdued network.
📉 glassno.de/3NVcqes
🔁UPDATE:
The recent rally toward $76k coincided with smaller wallet cohorts shifting toward distribution. 🟥
Broad-based accumulation across wallet sizes remains absent, limiting the sustainability of upward moves.
📉 glassno.de/4uPYF1e
BTC sits at the lower bound of the new buyers' cost basis range ($60k–$70k).
Supply accumulation in this range is notable, but the cluster is thinner than historical analogs that preceded a strong recovery.
The accumulation setup is constructive in form, not yet in magnitude.
📉 glassno.de/4uYOmbq
The Week On-Chain 12, 2026
Awaiting Liquidity
#BTC has stabilised around $70k, with ETF flows improving and sell-side pressure easing. However, muted spot volume and overhead supply suggest stronger demand is still needed to turn this into a recovery.
Executive Summary
- Unrealised losses have increased but remain within historical norms, indicating stress without full capitulation.
- US Spot ETF flows have turned modestly positive after sustained outflows, signalling early signs of institutional re-engagement.
- Spot volumes remain subdued, with limited expansion on the recovery, suggesting weak conviction and selective dip-buying.
Read the full Week On-Chain 👇
https://glassno.de/4sATTn1
Glassnode is expanding its macro indicator suite — bringing traditional market data directly into on-chain analysis.
This gives investors the tools to find alpha in the cross-analysis of crypto and macro.
No more switching between platforms.
📉 glassno.de/4d1zUc9
Demand Exhaustion Update
The 24HR-SMA of Net Realized P&L peaked at $17M/hr before price lost momentum and contracted back below $70k.
Profit-taking at this threshold continues to absorb upside momentum, a pattern now observed across multiple rally attempts.
Broader geopolitical uncertainty appears to be compressing demand depth, limiting the market's capacity to absorb even moderate realization events.
📉glassno.de/4bppmCo