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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
#Bitcoin has now confidently broken above the Adjusted Realized Price located at $24.6k.
This average cost basis variant excludes the tremendous profit held by lost coins.
The market also recently found support on the classic Realized Price at $19.8k.
📊Live Chart
The topic of #Bitcoin supply concentration is a favourite for critics of the asset.
In our latest research piece, we explore how the smallest HODLers of $BTC, the Shrimp (< 1 $BTC) 🦐 and Crab (< 10 $BTC)🦀 are in fact last cycles largest accumulators.
We assess
- Relative population growth and balance change by wallet cohort.
- Introduce a new metric called Yearly Absorption Rate showing balance change relative to mined supply
- Demonstrate the dispersion of BTC from miners, through exchanges and out to investor cohorts.
Our analysis demonstrates that #Bitcoin supply continues to disperse in time, settling in to smaller entity wallets. Over the 2021-23 cycle, Shrimp and Crab entities absorbed more than 2x the total coins mined, and are growing supply share at the greatest rate in history.
Read our latest piece Shrimp Supply Sink: Revising the Distribution of Bitcoin Supply
After an extremely consequential week, the digital asset industry finds itself short three crypto friendly banks in the US.
Investors appear to be seeking safety in the most trustless major assets #Bitcoin and #Ethereum
In this edition, we will focus on some of the key effects playing out on-chain, and within wider in market structure, including:
- De-pegging of several stablecoins from $1, as well as dominance shifting back towards Tether (USDT).
- Net capital outflows from the digital asset market, observable across both stablecoins, and the two majors, BTC and ETH.
- Cyclical lows hit in futures open interest, despite elevated trade volumes, and speculative interest leading to an explosive rally back to $22k for BTC, and $1.6k for ETH.
Read more in The Week On-chain
Identification of #Bitcoin cycle extremes is tricky business, but investor behaviors do tend to rhyme each cycle.
Our latest report covers a new dashboard design which tracks cycle extremes via confluence of:
- MVRV
- SOPR
- Puell Multiple
- Reserve Risk
Watch our latest video report, and see our new dashboard for Spotting Cycle Extremes.
We can model the yearly balance change of #Bitcoin wallet cohorts, and compare to volumes of $BTC mined over the last year.
Both Shrimps (< 1 BTC) and Crabs (1-10 BTC) are at ATH accumulation rates by this metric.
- 🦐 +105% of mined coins
- 🦀 +119% of mined coins
Both of these cohorts have historically been net #Bitcoin accumulators, consistently growing their balance, but also behaving in line with macro cycles.
Of interest is the period from May to December 2021, where Crabs significantly reduced their accumulation until LUNA collapsed
View this metric in our Entity Balance Change Dashboard which is available for our Professional members.
Despite an overhang of regulations, the application layer of #Ethereum continues to flourish.
The #NFT market has seen competitor Blur take market share from leader OpenSea, driven by a strategy focused on pro traders.
Read more in The Week On-chain
#Bitcoin MVRV Ratio is one of the most popular and widely used on-chain metrics. However, much of the power of MVRV is rarely put to use.
The MVRV can be supercharged, and used to find cycle extremes, market trends, and for early warning of cycle peaks.
In our latest research piece, we explore the #Bitcoin MVRV Ratio from several angles:
- Exploring Extreme Values of the MVRV for spotting cycle tops and bottoms.
- MVRV Momentum and how to use the indicator to track macro bull/bear trends.
- Distribution Divergences showing how MVRV often gives advanced warning of cycle tops that are experiencing heavy distribution (sell-side pressure).
Read more in our latest report, and see all live charts in a newly released dashboard
Our latest Week On-chain Video report is live.
In this report, we analyze the #Bitcoin rally above $23k from the perspective of:
- Three Waves of Short Squeezes
- Leverage in futures markets
- Spot Exchange $BTC flows
- Average acquisition prices
Watch the latest edition of The Week On-chain
There are now over 503k active Proof-of-Stake Validators on the #Ethereum beacon chain.
The total number of new, or exiting validators is capped each day, depending on the validator pool size. The current limit is 1575 validators/day.
📊 Live Proof-of-Stake Dashboard
The total $WBTC Balance wrapped on #Ethereum has declined by over 35% since the collapse of the LUNA/UST project
At the peak, there were 285k #Bitcoin wrapped on #Ethereum, and this has since fallen by 101.55k $WBTC over the course of 2022
📊 Live Chart
After one of the least volatile months in history, #Bitcoin has seen an explosive rally back above $21k.
In our latest piece, we analyse the rally and the key pricing and valuation models $BTC has broken above.
Read more in The Week On-chain
As #Bitcoin rallies to $18.2k, over 13% of the Circulating Supply has returned to profit.
The observed sharp move upwards in this metric helps to confirm that a large volume of $BTC was acquired between $16.5k and $18.2k.
Live Chart
Our final video report for the year is now live.
We cover:
- Volatility, Derivatives, and leverage
- #Bitcoin on-chain supply concentrations.
- Stress in #Bitcoin mining.
- #Ethereum post-Merge supply dynamics.
- Shifting trends in Stablecoin markets.
Thanks to all our regular watchers and readers of The Week On-chain series. We hope you enjoyed our analysis this year, as much as we enjoy producing it. Wishing you all a very happy holiday season, and our analysis team will be back for another exciting 2023! 🎄
Watch our last video report for 2022.
Over the last 365-days, a total of $213B in Realized Loss has been locked in by #Bitcoin investors.
This compares to yearly Profits of $455B realized in the 2020-21 bull.
This reflects a relative capital loss of ~47% of the bull market gains, similar in scale to the 2018 cycle.
Live Chart
In the wake of one of the largest deleveraging events in digital asset history, the #Bitcoin Realized Cap has returned to May 2021 levels.
The Realized Cap decline, and significant realized losses signal that a near complete capital reset has taken place of the speculative premium since the end of the 2021 bull cycle.
Read more in the Week On-chain
We’ve released a powerful new suite of append-only variants for mutable metrics, designed specifically for backtesting and executing strategies where data stability is of the utmost importance. Learn more about the Point-In-Time suite below 👇
https://glassno.de/42htwph
Our latest market update video report is live for #Bitcoin and #Ethereum
We cover
- Fallout from three banks failing
- Depeg of $USDC and $DAI
- Market preference for spot $BTC and $ETH
- Long and Short Squeezes in Futures
Watch our latest analysis video report📽
https://youtu.be/pOmJ0Njhxn0
Bitcoin prices have been rejected from a series of psychological on-chain levels, related both to Older hands from the 2021-22 cycle and also for the Whale cohort. Profit- taking and capital flows have started to take place, although they remain low by historical standards.
In our latest Week On-chain report, we cover:
- Key on-chain cost basis levels related to HODLers and Whales.
- Adjusting for lost coins in the NUPL and MVRV metrics.
- Momentum forming within the On-chain Activity space.
- Resistance faced as profits are taken on the impulse higher.
Read more in The Week On-chain, or watch our latest video report.
Our latest product update report has been released, covering the major new products shipping so far YTD.
This includes:
📊 47x New metrics for Professionals
🗜 30x New Workbench models
📰 11x Analysis Reports
🪟 9x New Dashboards
📟 1x On-chain Signals
Read more in our latest Product Update Report
Are you a DeFi investor?
Participate in our user research survey and receive free Glassnode merch
A set of new dashboards for Mastering the MVRV Ratio are now live for both #Bitcoin and #Ethereum, designed to track market cycles, and extremes.
🟠 Bitcoin dashboard
🔷 Ethereum dashboard
📰 Report on Mastering the MVRV Ratio
After the powerful #Bitcoin rally in Jan, several on-chain oscillators have returned to an equilibrium position.
This aligns with observations from previous bear markets, where a turning of the market tides was underway.
Read more in our latest The Week On-chain newsletter
#Bitcoin markets have seen the strongest monthly price performance since Oct-2021.
This rally is fuelled by both spot demand, and a sequence of short squeezes
We explore these dynamics across derivatives markets, and spot exchanges in our latest edition of The Week On-chain.
The recent market rally has pushed #Bitcoin prices above $23k, surprising many investors.
However, with higher prices comes an increased motivation for network participants to take exit liquidity, especially after the prolonged bear of 2022
Read more in The Week On-chain Newsletter
Watch our latest Video Report.
For the first time since June, #Bitcoin has seen a greater volume of Profits realized on-chain than losses.
During bear cycles, this tends to act as a psychological level where investors sell at, or near break-even, creating resistance.
A convincing break above 1.0 for Realized P/L Ratio, or aSOPR has historically signalled a cycle regime shift is underway.
A successful retest and bounce of aSOPR from 1.0 is often observed near cycle turning points.
Read our Full Analysis in The Week On-chain
#Bitcoin markets display a fascinating and bizarre level of consistency between cycles.
In the 2018-29 bear, $BTC traded below the 200DMA 🔵 for 386-days.
With last weeks rally, $BTC is back above the 200DMA, having spent 381-days trading below it.
📊Live Chart
#Bitcoin and #Ethereum markets opened the new year...by staying asleep.
Realized volatility for the two major assets fell to extreme lows, which has historically preceded explosive moves in either direction
More in our first Week On-chain edition of 2023.
The final edition of The Week On-chain for 2022 is live!
We cover:
- Volatility, derivatives, and leverage.
- Severity of realized losses.
- #Bitcoin on-chain supply concentrations.
- #Ethereum post-Merge supply dynamics.
- Shifting stablecoin dominance
Read more in The Week On-chain.
Our video report for Week 49 is now also live.
We explore
- The prevailing regime of loss realization by the Bitcoin market.
- All-time-low in Realized P/L Ratio and what it means.
- 17% decline in the Realized cap, returning to May 2021 levels.
- Observations regarding the uptick in on-chain activity.
Watch our video report.
NFTs on #Ethereum accounted for 18% to 22% of transactions during H1-2022.
However NFT dominance has since declined to just 8.3%, as interest in the space wanes during the bear market.
Stablecoin dominance has spiked since FTX from 10% to 12.5%.
Live Chart