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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
USVIX, a TradFi volatility indicator tracking expected 30-day fear in the S&P 500 options market, is now live on @glassnode
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The timing could not be more relevant.
Since the US Spot Bitcoin ETFs emerged, the link between BTC and US equities has only grown stronger. Stock market fear is now Bitcoin's fear, too.
📉 glassno.de/4dyORCK
As price probed the $70K region, Realized Profit/hour spiked above $20M, signalling a local exhaustion.
A pattern consistent since February 2026:
Every approach to the $70k–$80K band meets thin liquidity and profit-taking pressure, capping the bounce.
📉 glassno.de/4c3bGfu
With price trading at $1.33, the Percent of XRP Supply in Profit has declined to 43.4%, the lowest since July 2024.
Читать полностью…
Bitcoin Block 943,400
Only 1,600 blocks (~11 days) until we hit the halfway point to the next halving.
Block 945,000 is coming.
📉 glassno.de/4v5TASP
The 30D-SMA of total daily transaction fees has declined to 2.5 BTC/day, the lowest level since March 2011.
Fee compression of this magnitude reflects a significant reduction in on-chain demand for block space, consistent with subdued network.
📉 glassno.de/3NVcqes
🔁UPDATE:
The recent rally toward $76k coincided with smaller wallet cohorts shifting toward distribution. 🟥
Broad-based accumulation across wallet sizes remains absent, limiting the sustainability of upward moves.
📉 glassno.de/4uPYF1e
BTC sits at the lower bound of the new buyers' cost basis range ($60k–$70k).
Supply accumulation in this range is notable, but the cluster is thinner than historical analogs that preceded a strong recovery.
The accumulation setup is constructive in form, not yet in magnitude.
📉 glassno.de/4uYOmbq
The Week On-Chain 12, 2026
Awaiting Liquidity
#BTC has stabilised around $70k, with ETF flows improving and sell-side pressure easing. However, muted spot volume and overhead supply suggest stronger demand is still needed to turn this into a recovery.
Executive Summary
- Unrealised losses have increased but remain within historical norms, indicating stress without full capitulation.
- US Spot ETF flows have turned modestly positive after sustained outflows, signalling early signs of institutional re-engagement.
- Spot volumes remain subdued, with limited expansion on the recovery, suggesting weak conviction and selective dip-buying.
Read the full Week On-Chain 👇
https://glassno.de/4sATTn1
Glassnode is expanding its macro indicator suite — bringing traditional market data directly into on-chain analysis.
This gives investors the tools to find alpha in the cross-analysis of crypto and macro.
No more switching between platforms.
📉 glassno.de/4d1zUc9
Demand Exhaustion Update
The 24HR-SMA of Net Realized P&L peaked at $17M/hr before price lost momentum and contracted back below $70k.
Profit-taking at this threshold continues to absorb upside momentum, a pattern now observed across multiple rally attempts.
Broader geopolitical uncertainty appears to be compressing demand depth, limiting the market's capacity to absorb even moderate realization events.
📉glassno.de/4bppmCo
Digital assets have matured into a functioning, multi-layered economy that can be measured, analysed, and compared against traditional macroeconomic benchmarks.
In a new report with WisdomTree, we examine the blockchain ecosystem through familiar economic and market-structure concepts, focusing on observable activity:
• Transaction fees as revealed demand for network utility
• Security provisioning through economic commitment via mining (energy) or staking (capital)
• Exchanges and custodians as gateways to traditional capital markets
• Stablecoins as the primary settlement and liquidity layer
• DeFi and tokenization as extensions of on-chain financial activity.
Taken together, these components form a financial system that increasingly mirrors traditional markets in structure and function.
📑 Get the report here
#Bitcoin rebounded from the $66k higher low, grinding steadily higher through the week with strong daily closes that pushed price back toward $73k.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/3N9wOsa
For near-term expiries (1W), Max Pain appears to act as a dynamic support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends.
This adds a derivatives-based reference point to price structure analysis that is rarely available in crypto markets.
📉glassno.de/472oSj4
A hallmark of bear markets: STH Supply in Profit falling below 50%, meaning the majority of recent buyers are underwater.
Demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%.
Watch this level as a precondition for any sustained recovery.
📉 glassno.de/3PyUZRj
The Week On-Chain 10, 2026
Bitcoin shows early signs of stabilisation as ETF inflows return and spot demand begins to recover. Negative funding reveals crowded short positioning, while options volatility eases, suggesting reduced immediate risk despite lingering uncertainty.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has consolidated within a $62.8k–$72.6k range for over a month, with repeated failures above $70k and geopolitical uncertainty adding further downside risk to the mid-term outlook.
- Price remains bounded between the Realized Price ($54.4k) and True Market Mean ($78.4k), with negative return skew prevailing until a decisive hold above $70k is established.
- An accumulation cluster is forming near the range midpoint, but its intensity falls short of prior episodes that preceded meaningful expansions, limiting conviction in a sustained breakout.
- The 7D-EMA of STH-SOPR has remained below 1 since October 2025, now at 0.985, confirming that recent buyers are spending at a loss — a hallmark of a bear market regime.
- US Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have stabilised, with the 7-day moving average returning to positive territory after several weeks of sustained institutional outflows.
- Spot market demand is showing early signs of recovery, with cumulative volume delta rebounding as buyers begin absorbing sell-side liquidity across major exchanges.
- Perpetual futures funding has turned negative, indicating growing short positioning and increasing the potential for a short-squeeze dynamic should spot demand strengthen.
- Options markets reflect easing short-term uncertainty, with front-end implied volatility compressing as traders scale back aggressive short-dated hedging.
- Delta skew across options markets remains near neutral, suggesting limited directional conviction despite elevated macro and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Gamma positioning remains largely neutral, implying options dealer hedging flows are unlikely to meaningfully amplify price volatility in the near term.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
#Bitcoin pushed higher in a sharp impulsive move, reclaiming the $69k level after consolidating above $65k, with momentum accelerating into the end of the period.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4ve4ea6
With more than half of the supply underwater, investors who accumulated above $2 over the past 12 months have been realizing losses at a pace of $20M – $110M/day since November 2025.
📉 glassno.de/4sf6paE
The big hands are bleeding.
With price contracting from ATH, Sharks & Whales (0.1K–10K BTC) are realizing losses at scale. The 7D-SMA of realized loss is now at >$200M/day.
Typical capitulation behaviour from larger entities.
📉 glassno.de/4v9gzw7
The Week On-Chain 13, 2026
No Catalyst, No Range Break
Bitcoin remains rangebound between $60k and $70k as spot demand shows early absorption and derivatives reset. Volatility cools and positioning balances, but without a clear catalyst, the market lacks the conviction needed for a sustained breakout.
Executive Summary
- Total Supply in Loss sits near 8.4M BTC, echoing the Q2 2022 structure, when roughly 3M BTC needed to be redistributed before the market could reclaim its cycle mid-line.
- Coinbase Spot CVD has turned marginally positive, suggesting spot buyers are starting to absorb sell-side pressure, though demand remains well below the levels typically seen at durable lows.
- Perpetual positioning is now far less momentum-driven, with bullish exposure being unwound and short-side interest re-emerging, leaving futures more balanced but also more cautious.
Read the full Week On-Chain
The 7D-SMA of US Spot ETF Netflow has turned negative since early last week, with 200–500 BTC in net daily outflows.
Small in magnitude, but persistent. A quiet signal that institutional demand conviction remains tentative at current price levels.
📉glassno.de/4bJAHgX
#BTC broke back below $70k before finding support near $65k, with a modest rebound back towards $67k into the weekend. Momentum remains tentative, with lower highs still defining the short-term structure.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4m8myxm
📊 Strategy Watch #2 is live
glassno.de/47m1Nbe
Built to address a clear demand for high-signal, impartial analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends in digital assets, Strategy Watch returns following strong feedback on the inaugural edition.
Inside the new edition:
🔹 All strategy types posted negative returns in February, except for one
🔹 A macro portfolio manager on navigating current geopolitical challenges
🔹 How 300+ managers expect the crypto market to perform over the next three months.
And more. 👉 Read the full edition
📩 Subscribe to receive it monthly
New Metric: Accumulation Trend Score by Wallet Cohort
This metric breaks down 30D accumulation behaviour by entity size, combining participation rate and balance change into a single score.
Score near 1 🟦 larger entities accumulating.
Score near 0 🟥 distribution or inactivity.
📉 glassno.de/4uPYF1e
#BTC swung from $76k to $67k before rebounding to $70k. Spot and ETF demand cooled, derivatives turned more defensive, and on-chain activity stayed soft, pointing to a consolidative, cautious market backdrop.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4bDDYwL
A simple 30D MA crossover of BTC price vs. Max Pain generates long/short signals that outperform buy-and-hold over a long time horizon.
Exploratory, not prescriptive. But the signal quality warrants attention.
Full interactive backtest available in Glassnode Studio👇
📉glassno.de/3NFyKsm
The Week On-Chain 11, 2026
Supply Cleared, Conviction Pending
Bitcoin has rebounded toward ~$74k as ETF inflows and spot demand recover. Shorts remain crowded with negative funding, while easing options stress suggests improving conditions but still early conviction.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken above $70k and entered a thinly accumulated air gap between $72k and $82k, with URPD confirming limited on-chain resistance until the upper band near $82k.
- ETF inflows have rebounded over the past month, marking a renewed wave of institutional demand and supporting the shift back toward spot-led market strength.
- Implied volatility has declined across tenors, reflecting a reduction in hedging demand and a normalization in market conditions.
📰 http://glassno.de/4siuWg1
A large pocket of negative gamma sits near the $75k strike in #BTC options markets.
Market makers appear structurally short calls at this level. As spot approaches, hedging flows could intensify, potentially amplifying upside price moves.
📈 https://glassno.de/471O35p
New Metric Launch: Options Max Pain (Time Series)
Max Pain is the strike price at which the total value of expiring options (calls + puts) is minimized, theoretically maximizing losses for option holders.
Glassnode now tracks this across maturity buckets (1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, aggregated) at 10-min, hourly, and daily resolution.
📉glassno.de/4rvkAIk
An accumulation cluster is forming in the $62k–$72k range. However, its intensity is modest relative to prior phases that preceded sustained expansions.
Conviction is building, but the foundation for a mid-term breakout remains thin so far.
📉 http://glassno.de/3P2i7rr
🔄 UPDATE:
The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D SMA) has been trading below 1 since February 21.
Historically, breaks below the neutral level (~1) have persisted for 6+ months before reclaiming it.
📉 glassno.de/4rjg683