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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
BTC treasury companies are in profit but barely buying.
They hold $BTC at a cost basis of about $80K, and price has closed above it since September 18.
In profit, buying can feed on itself: purchases lift price, price lifts their shares, and their shares fund more purchases.
Binance asks and the biggest liquidation clusters sit around $87K.
The top buyers still cap $BTC price near the same levels.
A daily close above that level with ETF inflows would show buyers absorbing the supply.
More in this week's Week On Chain
ETF buyers came back in size yesterday.
US spot $BTC ETFs took in $663M, the most in a day since September, and all of it went into BlackRock's IBIT.
That single day erased the funds' net outflows for October. Follow-through would confirm the demand is back.
Altcoin leverage is still running hot.
Prices have pulled back since leverage peaked earlier this month, yet over 40% of large caps still sit near their highest leverage of the year. In mid caps, that share is at a yearly high.
A deeper drop would put many longs at risk.
Weekend selling has hit altcoins hard.
As fear from equities spills into crypto, the typical altcoin is down over 5%. If the weekend closes like this it would be the largest weekend drop since April.
Since the $BTC low in June, buying Friday and selling Sunday was profitable.
Buyers kept refilling the $BTC book today.
The low timeframe view shows that the large bids that sat at $80k for the last week were filled and new large bids were placed, pushing price up systematically.
Now we see the support level under $80k weakening again.
$BTC is sitting on support.
However, underneath it a large cluster of long liquidations will be triggered. Another cluster sits around $75k.
Overhead, shorts liquidations have piled up above $85k all week. The lower clusters currently appear more fragile than those above.
BTC is holding the ETF cost basis.
That line sits near $81.5K, and every daily close for the last 3 weeks has held above it. A large block of bids waits just below.
A break under this level could set off forced selling and deepen the drop.
https://x.com/i/article/2110391618755031040
$BTC has bounced off the ETF cost basis.
Price spent most of this year below that level, and the May rally stalled right under it.
It has now held twice as support around $81.5k. Below it, the next major level is the True Market Mean at $77.5k.
Most #BTC with a visible public key is exposed through address reuse, and that part has been growing.
The balance in reused addresses rose from 3.79M to 4.33M BTC over the past year, and now covers 21.5% of circulating supply.
Bitcoin is moving into support.
After a rejection from the sell wall at $86.5K, $BTC has slid toward multiple large buy orders. The largest sits around $81k.
These bids have been patiently waiting and will help to dampen downside.
Bitcoin got through the $85K wall, but the rally is running light.
Our new Week On-chain maps what is missing, what altcoins are doing and the levels to watch.
$BTC trades near $86k after a Sunday rally lifted the weekly close about 2% higher.
Derivatives positioning eased back into its normal range and ETF inflows cooled, while on-chain activity, new capital and profit-taking all run hot.
https://glassno.de/4zctuPd
$BTC's largest overhead liquidation cluster sits near $90k.
If price touches this level, leveraged shorts will be forced to close their positions.
Zoom into the last two months and smaller clusters can be seen around $83k and $75k.
Either side could speed up the next move.
The market repriced the odds of an October Fed hike from 66% to 22% this week.
Here is our commentary on the repricing as it happened and what Bitcoin did.
https://glassno.de/pricing-out-the-hike
$BTC is boxed in between $80K and $87K.
Below, buyers refilled the bids at the ETF and treasury cost basis. Above, the top buyers' break-even, the main asks and the largest liquidation clusters share one zone.
More on ETF flows, MSCI and altcoins in this week's Week On-chain.
The Q4 levels for $BTC have held so far.
Last month, together with @colin_basco and the @CoinbaseInsto team we put resistance at $87K to $87.8K in our Charting Crypto report. We read the data as near-term consolidation.
Price stalled there and ranged below it ever since.
A break out of the range is likely to spark significant volatility, although another overhead supply cluster sits around $90k.
Read our full quarterly report below👇
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2110737242608246947
Short-term profit-taking has weighed on $BTC.
Two weeks ago we flagged short-term holders in profit sending the largest share of exchange inflows in a year. This selling has weighed on price since.
The flow has now eased back to its average yearly level.
Bitcoin trades near $82k after a quiet week that held above $80k.
The selling behind the early October slide eased, but spot and ETF buyers have not returned, while capital keeps moving into newer hands on-chain.
Read the latest Market Pulse 👈
$BTC sellers capitulated again yesterday.
Every burst of loss selling came right at a local bottom: early August, mid-August and mid-September.
Profit taking has slowed since the September high.
If the pattern holds, yesterday's selling just above $80k would mark the floor.
Bitcoin moved into an early recovery in Q3, even as the Fed resumed tightening.
Our Q4 2026 Charting Crypto report with Coinbase Institutional reads the data behind it. Its outlook: constructive, with reasons for near-term caution.
Download the report: https://glassno.de/4s56RtH
$BTC is stuck under key cost basis levels.
The buyers of the past two years break even above $88K, and the ETFs are net sellers again. The ETF cost basis near $81.5K has held twice so far.
More on liquidation levels, macro and altcoins in this week's Week On-chain 👇
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2110398599163167117
The cost basis of investors that bought the top still caps BTC's upside.
Holders who bought 1 to 2 years ago sold heavily as $BTC rallied toward $88k, where the 6 to 12 month group breaks even. Price stalled just under it.
That selling has since slowed considerably.
Bitcoin trades just below $83k after a mid-week slide briefly undid the September breakout.
Perpetual traders and ETF holders led the selling, while new capital kept arriving on-chain and profitability stays stretched.
Read our latest Market Pulse Report 👇
https://glassno.de/4ztqYV0
Existing holders have been carrying this $BTC rally.
The realized cap keeps climbing while new money from ETFs, stablecoins and treasuries is dropping.
The 2024 and 2025 rallies showed the same gap, but on far larger inflows. A pickup in new money would put real demand behind BTC.
The US bid that led $BTC has flipped.
From July to the September breakout, US trading hours drove most of Bitcoin's gains. Since then, the US session has been a net seller.
The full picture, from ETF flows to liquidations, in this week's Week On-chain 👇
Large entities are back in profit.
Small wallets stayed in profit the whole time: at the June low, $BTC held well above their $48K cost basis while sharks and whales slipped underwater.
In the 2022 bear market, price fell below every group's cost basis.
Whales have stopped sending $BTC to exchanges.
Their summer run of net deposits lasted over three months, twice as long as any other since 2023.
It ended in late August, and the flow has stayed negative since.
$BTC long-term holders stayed in profit this entire cycle.
No bear market since at least 2015 has done that.
In each prior bear, LTH-MVRV fell below 1 at the cycle low, putting the cohort underwater.
This time it bottomed above 1 and is now climbing again.
$BTC investors that bought the top are currently selling.
Two cohorts sit underwater: buyers from 1–2 years ago at $97k, and from 6–12 months ago at $89k.
Those who bought the 2025 rally are selling the most coins per day this year.
Those who bought the decline are not.