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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
Hyperliquid whales are adding to their $BTC shorts.
Their net positioning turned short 2 weeks ago after 7 months of being long. Short exposure is now the largest since October 2025.
The last time they were this short, price moved down considerably.
Leverage grew through the $BTC selloff.
Open interest climbed by about $1B during the US session drop, and by almost $500M more into today's US session.
Funding cooled slightly but is now ramping up again. Longs look to be stepping back in.
$BTC traders are still here after the retrace.
Before the spike in August, volume had sunk to its lowest since 2023.
Despite BTC pulling back over the last weeks, volume has stayed above this August level.
This indicates sustained interest in crypto after months of apathy.
$BTC trades near $78k on Monday after a Thursday slide below $80k. Perpetual sellers drove the drop, yet longs keep paying up in funding and options traders are buying protection, while spot buyers held steady.
Read our latest BTC Market Pulse 👇
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Yesterday’s Binance hack is the largest in crypto history.
Over $6 billion was affected, more than the next 9 largest hacks combined.
The previous largest, Bybit in February 2025, was $1.5 billion.
3 out of the 10 largest have now happened since 2025, all at exchanges.
Strategy Watch is our monthly read on fund performance, capital flows, and allocator positioning across digital assets, produced with Crypto Insights Group
Edition #9 is live now 👈
It looks like Binance was just hacked for around $5.3 billion worth of assets.
The largest pieces:
$1.66 billion in USDT
17,985 $BTC, about $1.45 billion
$767m in USDC
ETH and dozens of smaller tokens follow.
The total is still a small part of what Binance holds on-chain.
Consumer confidence is sitting near all-time lows.
The Michigan survey found the cost of living weighs on Americans most.
Fuel and tariffs drove costs up, and inflation expectations are climbing again.
Even stocks near all-time highs have not lifted the mood, apparently.
This market looks a lot like summer 2023.
In 2023, $BTC's first big move off the bottom ran into a meme and altcoin frenzy. Volatility then sank. This year has followed the same order, with volatility now at the lows.
More on these parallels in this week's Week On-chain.
$85K keeps turning $BTC back.
Since January, Bitcoin has closed above it on only five days, never more than three in a row. It's a truly tough level to break.
More in depth analysis in our latest Week on Chain report
Hyperliquid whales are net short $BTC for the first time since March.
This group managed to long the bottom, but the positioning flipped last week.
The question is whether they are early to a deeper pullback, or about to be squeezed if price turns higher.
Recent $BTC buyers have left the strong sell zone.
In late September, almost all short-term holder supply was in profit. Now it has cooled to about 70%.
For buyers who expect the uptrend to continue, that makes this a considerably better entry than a month ago.
$BTC trades near $80k on Monday after a midweek push toward $85k failed.
Longs keep paying up in funding and options traders are hedging, while spot and ETF buyers stepped back as price fell.
Read our latest BTC Market Pulse 👇
Traditional finance is moving onto crypto rails.
Perpetuals on stocks, gold and oil grew into a large part of perp trading on major venues while $BTC sat in a bear market.
Our new report with Fasanara Digital examines what that means for allocators.
$BTC has rarely tracked equities this closely.
Over the last 30 US sessions, the correlation with the S&P 500 reached 0.80. Since 2020 it has spent most of its time far below that.
Despite the talk of bitcoin's relative strength, macro sets the direction for now.
Short-term holders are back underwater.
Yesterday's drop pushed about 60% of the $BTC held by recent buyers below its cost basis. A day earlier, they were back in profit.
For now, that lowers the risk of recent buyers cashing out into strength.
Bitcoin is retesting its August breakout levels.
Holding above these levels keeps the August uptrend in place.
Our latest Week on Chain report contains ten more analyses, including liquidation maps, options into year-end, midterms data and much more.
$BTC sellers have been taking losses below $80k.
Last week brought the longest run of daily net realized losses since mid-August.
The August and September loss clusters both formed at the local lows. A hold above $75k would fit that pattern.
ETF investors are pulling out of $ETH.
US spot ETH ETFs have now seen 23 straight sessions of outflows, the longest streak since the funds launched.
This signals weak demand from traditional investors who bought heavily in August and September.
$BTC is retesting the True Market Mean.
It could pull back all the way to the short-term holder cost basis at $75.8k and still be a good setup for continuation.
Retests like this are normal in an uptrend. The last one, in mid-September, came days before the high of the move.
Outflows across chains happened one after the other. XRP went first, then SOL shortly after, then BTC, ETH, USDT and TRX together, finally USDC.
Binance's BNB balance was left untouched.
It wasn't just the major assets.
Dozens of smaller tokens saw a large share of their Binance balance leave in the same hour. According to our data, #FUN tokens were completely drained from the exchange.
Altcoin profits came and went within a month.
In late September, recent buyers were selling most tokens at a profit, the biggest spike since December 2024.
A month later, most of them are back to selling at a loss, while $BTC barely moved.
US spot #Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows over the past 30 days for the first time since late July, reaching -$292M on Oct 26.
The dip remains shallow, and inflows have returned this week. $BTC
Chart: https://glassno.de/etfs-30d-netflow
Bitcoin is quiet. The market under it is not.
Long-term holders sit on coins bought above $85K. Each dip brings smaller losses. Stocks now outtrade Bitcoin perps on Hyperliquid. Altcoin breadth is fading.
Twelve analyses on how it all fits together 👇
https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2115427475635196352
$BTC is beating the S&P 500 again.
Over recent weeks it has won more trading days than it lost. In June it won only one day in five, its weakest stretch in more than five years.
Outperformance like this could become reflexive as investors move to the strongest asset class.
Our backtesting engine found this $BTC rule.
It buys when the 30-day RSI of entities in profit crosses above its threshold.
Since July 2023, its worst drawdown was 20%, against 53% for holding.
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The agent asks & our machine learning framework does the heavy lifting.
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Speculation rotated into equities during Bitcoin's bear market.
On Hyperliquid, TradFi perps hit over 3x the $BTC perp's volume in August, just when BTC investors capitulated.
More in our report with @FasanaraDigital:
https://glassno.de/fasanara-q4
$BTC is testing the ETF cost basis around $81K again.
The same level capped the May rally before a deep drop, and caught last week's sweep from just below.
A convincing close below it would put mid $70K levels back into play.