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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
🔍📊 Discover Bitcoin's critical support and resistance zones in our Chart of the Week. Our analysis of Entity-Adjusted URPD reveals where the market's cost basis clusters could steer the next price movements. Watch now for essential on-chain insights to refine your trading and investment decisions. https://youtu.be/-8gIA9aaHMI
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In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Shrimp Balance Change:
- Shrimp, crabs, and fish, categorized as holders of under 100 BTC, are acquiring 92% of newly minted Bitcoin, reflecting significant investment activity by smaller market participants.
- The investment pattern significantly strengthened post the Luna and Three Arrows Capital collapses, signaling an extended phase of increased Bitcoin holding beginning in June 2022.
- Bitcoin's transition from liquid exchange wallets to investor-held wallets suggests a tightening supply, as investors, both new and established, exhibit a preference for holding over selling.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bk4erUcu8l4
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Cointime True Market Mean Price:
- The True Market Mean Price is an updated realized price model that was developed in collaboration with ARK Invest, accurately representing the cost basis for active investors by accounting for lost coins and early miners.
- A critical level in the Bitcoin market is the $28,000 benchmark, which signifies the average active Bitcoin investor's cost basis, and the market's recent movement above this suggests that a majority of these investors are now seeing profits.
- Compared to the tools available in 2015, today's instruments provide a more transparent insight into the market's cost basis, and moving above this significant level is likely to have a profound impact on overall investor sentiment.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xnTNXXxHlY
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Futures Funding Rates:
- Funding rates act as a directional barometer for the market, and throughout 2023, there was a clear long bias with traders consistently paying to maintain their long positions.
- For a significant portion of 2023, perpetual annualized funding rates yielded more than US Treasury rates, underscoring the potential rewards and risks of Bitcoin futures trading.
- Following the notable selloff in August, market volumes diminished, pointing to a widespread market apathy, and while futures play a pivotal role, the adjusting rates indicate the presence of other key market dynamics.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gp7mIbcWjKY
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on The Realized Cap HODL Waves:
- The Realized Cap HODL Waves assesses the distribution of wealth across age cohorts, offering a clearer perspective on Bitcoin's investor sentiment.
- During bull markets, the landscape is dominated by new speculative investors, whereas bear phases see committed long-term HODLers accumulating, highlighting the shifting dynamics of wealth through market cycles.
- This tool provides a vivid display of real-time capital rotations in the market, emphasizing moments when older Bitcoin coins are spent and aiding in a detailed market analysis.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHDk9hr7sBg
🔍 Finance Bridge by Glassnode is our go-to resource for traditional finance entities looking to integrate on-chain insights into their trading and investments. In the October edition, we delve into Bitcoin's resilience amidst panic selling and the hints of new capital inflow. We also explore how global economic challenges influence Bitcoin's liquidity and the unique options market dynamics. Plus, learn how to use the MVRV Ratio to inform your trading and investment strategies. Discover all these insights here: https://insights.glassnode.com/finance-bridge-edition-5/
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In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Transaction Counts and Block Capacity:
- SegWit utilizes a dual structure that separates transaction data from witness data, allowing inscriptions to be placed in the signature side and benefiting from data discounting.
- In previous bull markets, the transaction count peaked at 400,000 daily, but with modern optimizations, we're seeing numbers rise to 550,000 due to efficient packing of inscriptions.
- The average block now contains between 2.8k - 3.5k transactions, with daily spikes occasionally reaching over 4k per block.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qz0T9Ln-eYQ
New Chart of the Week is up! We're exploring the on-chain cost basis and MVRV metrics, spotlighting short-term holders. With Bitcoin's price testing its local range, why are these some of the key on-chain indicators to watch? Watch the video below for insights that can help you with your trading and investment decisions: https://youtu.be/GgDLdZPAX8I
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Inscriptions have been a significant buyer of Bitcoin blockspace since their introduction in Feb 2023. In this edition, we explore whether inscriptions are displacing monetary transfers, and how the increase in fees has impacted miner profitability.
Executive Summary
Inscriptions act as a form of buyer of last resort for cheap blockspace, and appear to be sensitive to the absolute fee paid.
Inscriptions are best thought of as a sort of 'packing filler' which is stuffed into any remaining space once the higher value monetary transfers are packed into blocks.
Analysis of fees and volume need to consider that there can be a higher perception of 'value' assigned to the inscriptions beyond the BTC volume being transferred and held.
Despite a meaningful uptick in fee revenue for miners, the halving event is likely to put many of them into extreme income stress unless BTC prices increase meaningfully.
Read more in The Week On-chain Newsletterand our latest Video Report.
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Stablecoin Dominance:
- Tether (USDT) is regaining its market dominance, closely approaching its previous peak levels. This resurgence indicates its escalating importance, especially in markets outside the United States.
- A noteworthy increase in USD Coin's (USDC) outflows has been observed in 2023, a trend likely driven by U.S. capital migrating toward markets offering higher interest rates.
- Pertinent to the overall stablecoin environment, a net outflow is evident across the board, suggesting a prevailing trend of stablecoin redemptions in the market.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbjMKR7rzf0
📢 Fresh from Glassnode: This week's Chart of the Week looks for insights in the the Short-Term Holder Supply in Profit metric. Get a grip on the sentiment of recent market entrants and understand the potential market shifts. How can you hedge yourself against potential losses? Equip yourself with knowledge that will help you navigate the Bitcoin market in the days and weeks to come. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZ8CszH7gtA
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For all charts featured in the Mastering the Realized Cap report, please visit the Dashboard below 👇
https://glassno.de/456zfi9
Liquidity across the digital asset market continues to dry up, with both on-chain and off-chain volumes reaching historical lows. Whilst HODLing remains the market preference, a significant proportion of the supply is teetering on the edge of falling into a significant unrealized loss.
Executive Summary
- Liquidity, volatility, and volumes continue to compress across the digital asset market, with many metrics falling back to 2020 pre-bull levels.
- Stablecoins are experiencing a persistent decline in supply as redemptions are made across all major stablecoin assets with the exception of Tether (USDT).
- The Long-Term Holder cohort are steadfast in their holdings, spending remarkably little of it.
- Short-Term holders on the other hand are teetering on the edge of profitability, with a large majority of their supply acquired above the current price range.
Read more in The Week On-chain Newsletter and our latest Video Report.
Chart of the Week is Live! This week, we're focusing on the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). Grasp the practical implications of SOPR for your trading and investment decisions. Dive deep into this metric and stay ahead in the current uncertain environment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEPRMS-ifBY
Capital tends to flow into the digital asset market primarily via three assets; #Bitcoin, #Ethereum, and #Stablecoins. With stablecoins proliferating in recent years, and becoming a dominant quote pair, we can use the relative flow of funds between these assets to gauge aggregate market demand.
In our latest video report, we cover the shifting tides of capital flows:
- Review the Recovering from a Bitcoin Bear dashboard.
- Use aggregate capital flow metrics to assess macro demand.
- Assess the relative balance between stablecoins and the majors.
- Shifting dominance that helps establish a view over the risk curve.
Visit our Capital Rotation dashboard for a full set of charts covered in this weeks video report.
The fourth #Bitcoin halving is fast approaching, estimated to be in April 2024.
In this edition, we deep dive into the impressive tightness of $BTC supply, and demonstrate how we can measure investor accumulation patterns in the lead up to the event.
By many measures of 'available supply', #Bitcoin is as tightly held by investors as it has ever been relative to total circulating supply.
Meanwhile, rates of accumulation and HODLing far exceed new issuance today.
Read more in The Week On-chain newsletter.
The Bitcoin Supply is historically tight, with an all-time-high in coins held by Long-Term investors, and impressive rates of accumulation taking place. In this edition we explore this tightness using several on-chain supply heuristics and metrics.
Executive Summary
- The Bitcoin supply is quite tight with several measures of supply such as Illiquid, HODLed, and Long-Term Holder Supply at historical highs.
- The spending behavior of Short-Term Holders suggests a shift in market character has taken place now that the market has rallied above the key $30k level.
- Analysis of investor cost basis for various cohorts suggests that this $30k level is an important zone of interest for the bulls, with an 'air-gap' between there and $33k.
Read our full analysis in The Week On-chain Newsletter, and watch our latest video analysis report.
📈Bitcoin has seen a 25% surge over the past two weeks, largely driven by the anticipation of a spot BTC ETF and its renewed status as a potential safe haven. But how can we truly measure the confidence behind this rally? Dive into our latest Chart of the Week video where we explore Glassnode's recently-developed indicator, specifically designed to gauge the confidence of new investors in Bitcoin's current price trend. Discover the insights it offers and how it can be affect your trading strategies. https://youtu.be/Y5nqImojbPA
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The Week On-chain 43, 2023 - A Breath of Fresh Air: Bitcoin Breaks to $35K
Bitcoin prices have broken to new yearly highs, trading above the mid-cycle price level of $30k, and reaching $35k. The market found sufficient strength to break above several important psychological pricing levels, making the weeks that follow important to keep an eye on.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin bulls have managed to push BTC prices back to $35k, breaking several key technical and on-chain pricing levels which were co-located around $28k, a noteworthy sign of strength.
- Derivatives markets contributed to the move with a pair of short-squeezes, closing out of 60k BTC worth of futures positions, and a $4.3B surge in options call open interest.
- Long-term investors are unphased by this weeks price action, with Long-Term Holder supply reaching new ATHs, and revived supply volumes remaining insignificant.
Read our full analysis in The Week On-chain Newsletter, or watch our latest video report.
Capital rotation within digital assets markets occurs both between assets, as well as internally as coins change hands at different acquisition prices.
In this edition, we develop two indicators based off the Realized Cap and NUPL to track this rotation of capital between investors.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain👇
https://glassno.de/3QjOIH9
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Percent Short-Term Holders in Profit:
- Short-term holders have recently been the focus, and it's evident they take profits during market peaks and incur losses during dips, as highlighted by a blue oscillator representation.
- Short-term holders are significantly sensitive to their cost-basis; thus, they tend to sell when in profit, but when facing potential losses, they can quickly succumb to panic, leading to asset transfers.
- Interestingly, while short-term holders predominantly impact immediate price actions, long-term holders are more active, especially during the pronounced cycle peaks and troughs.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AfzrLRRgVY
Liquid staking transforms the supply dynamics of Ethereum and creates a shift in the demand for Ethereum's native token.
We discuss how stETH has become particularly attractive on lending platforms, whilst stETH liquidity on decentralized exchanges diminishes.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://t.co/7c3HKsC0LZ
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on the upcoming Bitcoin Halving:
- We delve into the implications of the halving, exploring how the reduction in rewards will necessitate a significant increase in Bitcoin’s price to prevent operational losses for miners, potentially leading to the exit of those who can't maintain efficiency in this new landscape.
- Our models reveal a strong correlation between mining difficulty and market cap with a discernible stress point evident 24,000 USD.
- In a post-halving scenario, the focus intensifies on the survival and efficiency of miners, with indicators suggesting a requisite Bitcoin value above 30,000 USD to alleviate stress, thus offering a glimpse into market resilience and health under varying conditions.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0lf7q9OmOc
In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on RHODL Ratio:
- High RHODL values indicate that a significant proportion of the Bitcoin supply is being held in coins that have recently moved, illustrating a tendency towards short-term holding, whereas low values are indicative of predominant long-term holding.
- The RHODL Ratio is currently near its two-year median, which has traditionally been crucial in indicating market transitions; the lack of a clear break in either direction is emphasizing the current state of high market indecision.
- The RHODL Ratio has consistently served as a reliable indicator in identifying key market trends and shifts, positioning it as an essential tool for comprehensive market analysis.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUt0XkuHyGs
With almost all Short-Term Holders now underwater on their position, sentiment has shifted towards the negative. In this report, we explore several measures to track investor sentiment. We develop indicators which assess divergences between the market and observed investor behavior.
Executive Summary
We review the market position relative to two on-chain pricing models, both of which are intersected during past cycle lows, and in the March 2020 sell-off.
Patterns of accumulation and distribution tend to align with local highs and lows, and we demonstrate how this plays out in on-chain data.
A super-majority of Short-Term Holders are now underwater on their position, with a new indicator suggesting negative sentiment dominates this cohort at present.
Read more in The Week On-chain Newsletter.
🔍 Finance Bridge by Glassnode is our go-to resource for traditional finance entities looking to integrate on-chain insights into their trading and investments. In the September edition, we delve into Bitcoin's momentum shifts as seen through on-chain profitability metrics, explore how macroeconomic dynamics impact the crypto markets, and explain how to use the Realized Cap to inform you trading and investment strategies. Discover all these insights here: https://insights.glassnode.com/finance-bridge-edition-4/
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The Realized Cap is one of the most important on-chain metrics, and is an essential primitive for analysts to master.
In this report, we document how the Realized Cap, and its derivatives, describe the fear and greed response of investors, which are the primal forces driving Bitcoin market cycles.
Discover more below 👇
https://glassno.de/3PA7kCy
Glassnode Co-Founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft is going to be on a panel at token2049 tomorrow to discuss how to best navigate blockchain and web3 data. If you're attending, make sure to check it out and connect with us at our booth on level 5!
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In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on BTC vs ETH Exchange Flow Dominance:
- This metric gauges the proportion of USD funds flowing in and out of exchanges attributed to Bitcoin and Ethereum. A higher value signals Bitcoin dominance, while a lower value suggests Ethereum dominance.
- Throughout 2023, Bitcoin's dominance has noticeably increased, moving from around 50% to between 65-75%. This rise in BTC exchange flow dominance indicates capital moving down the risk curve, suggesting a weakening of risk appetite.
- Despite the increase in Bitcoin's dominance, net capital outflows persist across the digital asset space, highlighting that caution remains the dominant sentiment.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_Htt6cKYIY
The latest edition of The Week On-chain newsletter is live.
We introduce and establish a set of tools we can use to assess sentiment and market positioning in Uniswap Liquidity Pools.
Executive Summary
- Event driven volatility has re-entered digital assets markets in recent weeks, with notable indicators of aggregate capital outflows flagged leading into it.
- Derivative markets show a continual outflow of liquidity, particularly across ETH futures suggesting capital continues to move higher up the risk curve to relative safety.
- We deep dive into how Uniswap liquidity pools have many similarities to options markets, with Liquidity Providers expressing a view on both volatility, and price levels.
Read more in the latest edition of The Week On-chain newsletter.