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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
The Week On-Chain 6, 2026
Range-Bound Under Pressure
Executive Summary
• Bitcoin has slipped below the True Market Mean (~$79k), with the Realized Price (~$54.9k) defining the lower structural boundary. In the absence of a macro catalyst, this range is likely to frame the mid-term environment.
• Sell pressure continues to be absorbed within the $60k–$69k demand cluster formed in H1 2024. The Holder conviction at breakeven has supported a transition into consolidation.
• Liquidity remains constrained, with the 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stuck between 1–2. Capital rotation is limited, and the broader backdrop remains cautious.
• ETF flows have rotated back into persistent outflows, removing a key structural bid. Institutional demand is no longer cushioning downside.
• The volatility risk premium is normalizing as realized volatility remains elevated and implied retraces. Panic-driven flows are fading, with markets shifting toward range-bound expectations.
📰https://glassno.de/4qHi80M
BTC Realized Profits-to-Value (30D MA) has retraced sharply, unwinding much of the prior profit-taking impulse. However, it remains above the historical capitulation band.
This suggests profit realization is cooling, but not yet broad capitulation.
https://glassno.de/40fcpoa
The recent drop to $60k imposed drastic psychological pressure on “diamond hands,” comparable to the May 2022 LUNA crash.
In both cases, the 7D EMA of Long-Term Holder SOPR fell below 1 after trading for 1-2 years above it.
Simply put, long-term holders realized significant losses—a rare shift in conviction typically seen in deeper stages of bear markets.
📈 http://glassno.de/4qDwGys
#Bitcoin spent the past week rebounding to $70K and stalling into the high $60Ks. The structure still looks reactive, with attempts to recover meeting overhead supply and follow-through remaining limited.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4aBgpUX
Assuming the early October ATH marked the end of the recent bull market, this cycle saw very modest drawdowns, similar to the 2015–2017 market.
📈 http://glassno.de/3ZuY5Yr
XRP lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling.
• SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 (Jul ’25) to 0.96 (now)
• Holders are realizing significant losses
• On-chain profitability flipped negative
This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR plunged to a <1 range for prolonged consolidation before stabilization.
📉 http://glassno.de/3O4vYwO
#Bitcoin's Yardstick has fallen to its lowest level on record, pushing valuation into an unprecedented zone. Conditions like this have rarely persisted, often marking periods where downside exhaustion meets long-term opportunity.
📉https://glassno.de/45NLi75
The #BTC capitulation metric has printed its second-largest spike in two years, highlighting a sharp escalation in forced selling.
These stress events typically coincide with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning.
https://glassno.de/3LSM2kJ
Hyperliquid positioning tells a clear story:
Traders are net short ~240 BTC. Entry heatmaps show shorts added from higher levels, plus fresh shorts opening around $75k and current prices. Meanwhile, long interest remains notably thin.
📉http://glassno.de/4avfCWF
#Bitcoin fell to $74K after losing the November lows, with 14D RSI deep in oversold. Spot volume rebounded, but looks reactive, signalling churn in downside continuation, not dip buying.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4a91tND
The Week On-Chain 4, 2026
BTC is consolidating with muted volumes, as spot bid rebuilds slowly while options markets lean increasingly defensive.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains pinned near key on-chain cost basis levels, where support is being tested, and conviction is required to prevent further structural weakness.
- Short-Term Holder conditions remain fragile, with any failure to reclaim key breakeven bands keeping recent buyers vulnerable to renewed sell pressure.
- Broader holder behaviour still leans defensive, suggesting this is a consolidation regime driven more by absorption than expansion.
- Liquidity remains the deciding variable, as price stability has persisted despite reduced participation, but breakout continuation still needs demand follow-through.
- Spot ETF flows are stabilising, with the 30D average drifting back toward neutral after sustained outflows, reducing mechanical sell pressure.
- Spot CVD bias is improving across venues, led by Binance, indicating marginal buy pressure is returning, though Coinbase remains comparatively steady.
- Perpetual futures leverage remains muted, with funding largely neutral and speculative positioning still cautious and easily shaken out.
- Options markets are rotating toward downside protection, with bearish skew, elevated short-dated implied volatility, and dealer gamma slipping below zero, increasing downside sensitivity.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
Ethereum network fees just hit their lowest level since May 2017.
📉http://glassno.de/4agE1PG
#BTC has pulled back toward $85K over the past week, with momentum softening. Spot volume remains stable but subdued, reinforcing a consolidation phase rather than a decisive trend move.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/49RtNnr
The Week On-Chain 3, 2026
#Bitcoin is consolidating in a low-volume regime, with easing spot pressure, light leverage, and volatility priced as short-lived rather than structural.
Executive Summary
- On-chain structure remains fragile, with price hovering around key cost-basis levels and limited confirmation of durable long-term holder conviction.
- Supply overhang persists, as recent buyers continue to face overhead resistance, constraining upside follow-through and keeping rallies vulnerable to distribution.
- Spot flows have turned more constructive, with sell-side pressure easing across major venues, though accumulation remains selective rather than aggressive.
- Corporate treasury activity is sporadic, characterised by isolated, event-driven inflows rather than coordinated accumulation, leaving corporates a marginal demand source.
- Derivatives participation remains thin, with futures volume compressed and leverage deployment subdued, reinforcing a low-engagement market regime.
- Options markets are pricing risk only at the front end, with short-dated implied volatility reacting while medium- and long-dated tenors remain anchored.
- Hedging demand briefly intensified, as reflected by a spike in the put/call volume ratio, but has since normalised, signalling tactical rather than structural risk aversion.
- Dealer gamma positioning has skewed lower, reducing mechanical support for price stability and reinforcing sensitivity to liquidity shocks.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
STH-NUPL, which measures the unrealized profit or loss of new investors relative to STH-market cap, indicates new investors have been carrying net unrealized losses since November 2025.
A recovery above ~$98K appears to be the minimum threshold required to return this cohort to a net profitable state.
📉http://glassno.de/4jQjx3u
Since early February, every attempt to reclaim $70k has met demand exhaustion, with even >$5M/hour in net realized profit triggering rejection.
Contrast that with Q3 2025’s euphoric phase, when profit realization surged to $200–350M/hour.
Ongoing regime of thin liquidity makes a sustained recovery into the $70–80k range structurally challenging.
📉http://glassno.de/4kHB925
During the first sharp leg down in NOV 2025, the market absorbed heavy sell pressure aggressively, similar to the post-LUNA & FTX crash responses.
The recent drop to $60k did see some accumulation, but it was notably weaker than the NOV 2025 bounce or the reflexive demand seen after the LUNA collapse.
📉http://glassno.de/3OgO6Uo
The LTH Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap maps supply density across price levels.
The recent support above $65k is anchored in the 2024 H1 accumulation range. This demand zone has absorbed recent sell pressure.
A decisive break would likely open the path toward Realized Price (~$54k).
📈http://glassno.de/4aRWHW9
The Week On-Chain 6, 2026
Bitcoin remains defensive in the $60k–$72k zone while overhead supply caps rallies. Treasury outflows, reactive spot volume, and cooling futures signal shallow demand.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains confined between the True Market Mean (~$79.2k) and the Realized Price (~$55k), reflecting a defensive regime following the structural breakdown, with sell-side pressure continuing to be absorbed in the $60k–$72k demand corridor.
- Large supply clusters at $82k–$97k and $100k–$117k sit in unrealized loss, creating overhead resistance potential during relief rallies.
- Short-Term Holder profitability remains negative, underscoring fragile conviction among recent buyers and limiting upside follow-through.
- Digital Asset Treasury flows have flipped into synchronized net outflows, signalling broad institutional de-risking and shallow spot absorption.
- Spot volume spiked during the selloff but failed to sustain, indicating reactive participation rather than constructive accumulation.
- Perpetual futures positioning has cooled, with directional premiums compressing as leveraged traders step back and speculative momentum fades.
- Implied volatility and skew reflect persistent downside hedging demand, consistent with a defensive market posture.
- Dealer gamma and options positioning are reinforcing reactive price behaviour, keeping moves short-lived amid fragile liquidity conditions.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
At $69k, the unrealized loss in the market equals ~17% of the market cap. Current market pain echoes a similar structure seen in early May 2022.
📉 http://glassno.de/4aqd4Ik
#Bitcoin recovers to $69K after sharp downside repricing. Positioning remains defensive across spot, derivatives, and on-chain metrics, with recovery dependent on renewed spot demand.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4bKIxHy
On Feb 04, Bitcoin’s Entity-Adjusted Realized Loss (7D-SMA) hit $889M per day, the highest daily loss realization since November 2022.
📉http://glassno.de/3Mq0ock
The Week On-Chain 5, 2026
The #BTC bear market rages on as profitability resets, realised losses rise, spot demand stays weak, and leverage unwinds. Options keep pricing elevated downside risk.
Executive Summary
- BTC has confirmed a decisive breakdown, with price slipping below key structural support levels and keeping market participants firmly on the defensive.
- On-chain profitability has sharply deteriorated, with MVRV Z-Score compressing to its lowest level since Oct 2022, signalling a major reset in unrealised gains.
- Realised losses are accelerating, with sustained sell pressure suggesting many holders are being forced to exit at a loss as downside momentum persists.
- Spot volume remains structurally weak, reinforcing a demand vacuum where sell-side flows are not being met with meaningful absorption.
- Futures markets have entered a forced deleveraging phase, with the largest long liquidation spikes of the drawdown amplifying volatility and downside continuation.
- Demand from major allocators has softened materially, as ETF and treasury-linked netflows fade and fail to provide the consistent bid seen during prior expansion phases.
Options markets continue to price elevated downside risk, with volatility staying bid and skew steepening as traders pay up for protection.
- With leverage being flushed but spot demand still absent, the market remains vulnerable, and any relief rallies are likely to be corrective rather than trend-reversing.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
The 3D-SMA of Net Realized Profit & Loss is now at –$317M/day, a regime last observed in December 2022.
Loss realization has regained control, liquidity is fading, and patience is being tested.
📉http://glassno.de/4tjaTyH
Looking at the cumulative Spent Volume by Long-Term Holders, LTHs have been spending >12K BTC per day on average over the past 30 days — equivalent to ~370K BTC per month.
This highlights the scale of gross distribution activity, beyond what net metrics alone capture.
📉http://glassno.de/3Ob5dqo
Any meaningful transition back toward a strong market rally should be reflected in liquidity-sensitive indicators such as the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA).
A sustained rise above ~5 has historically signalled a renewal of liquidity inflows into the market.
📉http://glassno.de/4rjg683
The 30D-SMA of netflows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs remains negative. There is no sign of renewed demand.
📉 http://glassno.de/4qipTdW
The recent attempt to move above STH-cost basis ($98.4K) was capped by sell-side pressure from 3–6 month holders, whose average cost basis sits near $112.6K.
This cohort ramped up spending into the move, realizing elevated losses and weighing on upside momentum.
📰http://glassno.de/3ZosaJ7
#BTC has pulled back from recent highs of $98K, slipping back into the low-$90Ks. Momentum has cooled but remains above neutral, pointing to consolidation rather than trend deterioration.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4r1zbLM
The current market structure for XRP closely resembles that of February 2022.
Investors active over the 1W–1M window are now accumulating below the cost basis of the 6M–12M cohort.
As this structure persists, psychological pressure on top buyers continues to build over time.
📉glassno.de/3Nu6Vmu