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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
📊 Strategy Watch #2 is live
glassno.de/47m1Nbe
Built to address a clear demand for high-signal, impartial analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends in digital assets, Strategy Watch returns following strong feedback on the inaugural edition.
Inside the new edition:
🔹 All strategy types posted negative returns in February, except for one
🔹 A macro portfolio manager on navigating current geopolitical challenges
🔹 How 300+ managers expect the crypto market to perform over the next three months.
And more. 👉 Read the full edition
📩 Subscribe to receive it monthly
New Metric: Accumulation Trend Score by Wallet Cohort
This metric breaks down 30D accumulation behaviour by entity size, combining participation rate and balance change into a single score.
Score near 1 🟦 larger entities accumulating.
Score near 0 🟥 distribution or inactivity.
📉 glassno.de/4uPYF1e
#BTC swung from $76k to $67k before rebounding to $70k. Spot and ETF demand cooled, derivatives turned more defensive, and on-chain activity stayed soft, pointing to a consolidative, cautious market backdrop.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4bDDYwL
A simple 30D MA crossover of BTC price vs. Max Pain generates long/short signals that outperform buy-and-hold over a long time horizon.
Exploratory, not prescriptive. But the signal quality warrants attention.
Full interactive backtest available in Glassnode Studio👇
📉glassno.de/3NFyKsm
The Week On-Chain 11, 2026
Supply Cleared, Conviction Pending
Bitcoin has rebounded toward ~$74k as ETF inflows and spot demand recover. Shorts remain crowded with negative funding, while easing options stress suggests improving conditions but still early conviction.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken above $70k and entered a thinly accumulated air gap between $72k and $82k, with URPD confirming limited on-chain resistance until the upper band near $82k.
- ETF inflows have rebounded over the past month, marking a renewed wave of institutional demand and supporting the shift back toward spot-led market strength.
- Implied volatility has declined across tenors, reflecting a reduction in hedging demand and a normalization in market conditions.
📰 http://glassno.de/4siuWg1
A large pocket of negative gamma sits near the $75k strike in #BTC options markets.
Market makers appear structurally short calls at this level. As spot approaches, hedging flows could intensify, potentially amplifying upside price moves.
📈 https://glassno.de/471O35p
New Metric Launch: Options Max Pain (Time Series)
Max Pain is the strike price at which the total value of expiring options (calls + puts) is minimized, theoretically maximizing losses for option holders.
Glassnode now tracks this across maturity buckets (1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, aggregated) at 10-min, hourly, and daily resolution.
📉glassno.de/4rvkAIk
An accumulation cluster is forming in the $62k–$72k range. However, its intensity is modest relative to prior phases that preceded sustained expansions.
Conviction is building, but the foundation for a mid-term breakout remains thin so far.
📉 http://glassno.de/3P2i7rr
🔄 UPDATE:
The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D SMA) has been trading below 1 since February 21.
Historically, breaks below the neutral level (~1) have persisted for 6+ months before reclaiming it.
📉 glassno.de/4rjg683
#BTC Spot ETF flows are stabilising after sustained outflows. The 14-day netflow trend has turned higher, signalling easing distribution pressure as BTC breaks above 70k. Institutional demand remains tentative, but early re-accumulation signs are emerging.
https://glassno.de/4sLx5Rh
Perpetual Open Interest posted its largest daily % increase since July 2025.
Leverage expanded as price tested $69.4k, consistent with speculators betting on a $70k breakout that didn't materialize.
📈glassno.de/4u0lkrj
#BTC stabilises as momentum and on-chain activity improve, while derivatives stay cautious. Selling pressure eases but capital flows remain fragile, signalling a tentative recovery backdrop.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4cW6KuS
The Week On-Chain 8, 2026
#BTC is range-bound between key valuation anchors, with $60k–$69k absorbing sell pressure. Profitability and breadth are fading, spot and ETF flows stay negative, and leverage has reset.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains range-bound between $60k–$70k at a 47% drawdown from ATH, a depth historically aligned with mid-to-late bear market phases.
- Nearly 9.2M BTC are now held at a loss, yet accumulation remains weak, with the Accumulation Trend Score below 0.5, signaling limited conviction from larger entities.
- The 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1.0, confirming an excess loss regime and structurally impaired liquidity, keeping downside risk elevated.
- Market breadth remains weak, as fewer assets sustain positioning above long-term trend baselines, confirming underlying structural softness.
- Large entity accumulation remains constructive in structure but has slowed in pace, reducing a key source of marginal upside support.
- Spot CVD has turned decisively negative across major venues, signaling active distribution. ETF flows remain in persistent outflow, confirming institutional demand is not providing a structural bid.
- Perpetual funding rates have normalized toward neutral, indicating leverage has reset. However, the absence of sustained positive funding reflects muted speculative appetite rather than renewed bullish conviction.
- Implied volatility has reacted to downside moves but failed to expand meaningfully, suggesting options markets are stabilizing rather than pricing systemic stress.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
#Bitcoin stayed range-bound around ~$64–68K, momentum modestly improving but participation weak. Sell pressure eased slightly yet spot, derivatives, ETF, and on-chain indicators remain defensive.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4rzXTnf
The 90D-SMA of top crypto assets' Change in Open Interest [%] has remained negative since October 2025.
The speculative premium, and with it derivatives liquidity, continues to contract.
Leverage appetite has yet to return, reinforcing the broader risk-off regime.
📉 http://glassno.de/4ooZ5rT
The Week On-Chain 12, 2026
Awaiting Liquidity
#BTC has stabilised around $70k, with ETF flows improving and sell-side pressure easing. However, muted spot volume and overhead supply suggest stronger demand is still needed to turn this into a recovery.
Executive Summary
- Unrealised losses have increased but remain within historical norms, indicating stress without full capitulation.
- US Spot ETF flows have turned modestly positive after sustained outflows, signalling early signs of institutional re-engagement.
- Spot volumes remain subdued, with limited expansion on the recovery, suggesting weak conviction and selective dip-buying.
Read the full Week On-Chain 👇
https://glassno.de/4sATTn1
Glassnode is expanding its macro indicator suite — bringing traditional market data directly into on-chain analysis.
This gives investors the tools to find alpha in the cross-analysis of crypto and macro.
No more switching between platforms.
📉 glassno.de/4d1zUc9
Demand Exhaustion Update
The 24HR-SMA of Net Realized P&L peaked at $17M/hr before price lost momentum and contracted back below $70k.
Profit-taking at this threshold continues to absorb upside momentum, a pattern now observed across multiple rally attempts.
Broader geopolitical uncertainty appears to be compressing demand depth, limiting the market's capacity to absorb even moderate realization events.
📉glassno.de/4bppmCo
Digital assets have matured into a functioning, multi-layered economy that can be measured, analysed, and compared against traditional macroeconomic benchmarks.
In a new report with WisdomTree, we examine the blockchain ecosystem through familiar economic and market-structure concepts, focusing on observable activity:
• Transaction fees as revealed demand for network utility
• Security provisioning through economic commitment via mining (energy) or staking (capital)
• Exchanges and custodians as gateways to traditional capital markets
• Stablecoins as the primary settlement and liquidity layer
• DeFi and tokenization as extensions of on-chain financial activity.
Taken together, these components form a financial system that increasingly mirrors traditional markets in structure and function.
📑 Get the report here
#Bitcoin rebounded from the $66k higher low, grinding steadily higher through the week with strong daily closes that pushed price back toward $73k.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/3N9wOsa
For near-term expiries (1W), Max Pain appears to act as a dynamic support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends.
This adds a derivatives-based reference point to price structure analysis that is rarely available in crypto markets.
📉glassno.de/472oSj4
A hallmark of bear markets: STH Supply in Profit falling below 50%, meaning the majority of recent buyers are underwater.
Demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%.
Watch this level as a precondition for any sustained recovery.
📉 glassno.de/3PyUZRj
The Week On-Chain 10, 2026
Bitcoin shows early signs of stabilisation as ETF inflows return and spot demand begins to recover. Negative funding reveals crowded short positioning, while options volatility eases, suggesting reduced immediate risk despite lingering uncertainty.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has consolidated within a $62.8k–$72.6k range for over a month, with repeated failures above $70k and geopolitical uncertainty adding further downside risk to the mid-term outlook.
- Price remains bounded between the Realized Price ($54.4k) and True Market Mean ($78.4k), with negative return skew prevailing until a decisive hold above $70k is established.
- An accumulation cluster is forming near the range midpoint, but its intensity falls short of prior episodes that preceded meaningful expansions, limiting conviction in a sustained breakout.
- The 7D-EMA of STH-SOPR has remained below 1 since October 2025, now at 0.985, confirming that recent buyers are spending at a loss — a hallmark of a bear market regime.
- US Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have stabilised, with the 7-day moving average returning to positive territory after several weeks of sustained institutional outflows.
- Spot market demand is showing early signs of recovery, with cumulative volume delta rebounding as buyers begin absorbing sell-side liquidity across major exchanges.
- Perpetual futures funding has turned negative, indicating growing short positioning and increasing the potential for a short-squeeze dynamic should spot demand strengthen.
- Options markets reflect easing short-term uncertainty, with front-end implied volatility compressing as traders scale back aggressive short-dated hedging.
- Delta skew across options markets remains near neutral, suggesting limited directional conviction despite elevated macro and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Gamma positioning remains largely neutral, implying options dealer hedging flows are unlikely to meaningfully amplify price volatility in the near term.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
#Bitcoin pulled back from $74k but internals are stabilizing. Momentum, ETF inflows, and profitability metrics improved modestly, though capital flows and conviction remain weak.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/3OXCaqR
📢 We’ve just launched Strategy Watch – Glassnode’s new monthly analysis of fund performance and institutional capital flows in digital assets.
Download the inaugural edition: https://glassno.de/4u7QGfF
Each issue combines aggregated manager survey data with on-chain and market intelligence to track:
🔹 Institutional capital flows
🔹 Strategy performance dispersion
🔹 Manager positioning and cash levels
🔹 SMA adoption and mandate shifts
🔹 Allocation activity
If you allocate capital, manage crypto strategies, or shape investment mandates, this is your monthly read on where returns are concentrating and how institutions are positioning.
📩 Subscribe to receive it monthly: https://glassno.de/4l5HrII
🔄UPDATE:
The $70k ceiling holds!
Feb 19 → Feb 25 → Mar 03, 02:00 UTC.
Each time the 12HR-SMA of Net Realized P&L spiked above $5M/hr, price stalled and reversed at the $69.4k range high. This region continues to cap every recovery attempt. The asymmetry reflects the fragility of the current demand structure.
Until this level of profit-taking can be absorbed without triggering rejection, $70k remains a ceiling, not a floor.
📉glassno.de/4kHB925
Feb 25, 18:00 UTC — this pattern repeated.
Smoothed Net Realized P&L exceeded $5M/hr. Price peaked at $69.4k and stalled.
Profit-taking continues to absorb momentum at the $70k threshold, consistent with a thin liquidity regime where even modest realization events are sufficient to suppress recovery attempts.
📉http://glassno.de/4kHB925
#BTC options positioning has flipped.
Our full-history GEX heatmap shows expanding negative gamma (red) around and below spot, while positive “gamma walls” thin out above.
With price in a short-gamma pocket, dealer hedging can amplify moves.
https://glassno.de/46LyIG3
The 7D-EMA of Net Realized Profit & Loss for recent investors plunged to –$1.24B/day on Feb 06, before moderating to –$0.48B/day today.
While the intensity has cooled, the broader regime still signals a market under pressure, with participants in the base formation phase continuing to capitulate.
📉 glassno.de/4cadTHO
Since the new ATH in early October, US Spot ETF balances have posted their largest drawdown of this cycle, down ~100.3k BTC.
Institutional de-risking has added structural weight to the ongoing weakness, reinforcing the broader risk-off environment.
📉 http://glassno.de/4tJOR8r