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Pioneering on-chain market analysis. Advanced charts/data/insights for investors in Bitcoin and digital assets. https://studio.glassnode.com/
Join us on October 22nd at 4 PM EST for an exclusive webinar featuring Glassnode Analyst James Check and Coinbase Institutional Head of Research David Duong.
In this session, James and David will provide a comprehensive analysis from the latest Guide to Crypto Markets, equipping you with actionable insights to navigate the current market environment. Key topics will include:
1. The growth of Layer 2s and how it impacts ether and the Ethereum ecosystem.
2. The rise in stablecoin volume and what it signals for the broader crypto market.
3. What to watch for ahead of, and after, the US election.
Don’t miss this opportunity to gain a holistic view of the evolving digital asset landscape. Seats are limited—secure your spot today: https://glassno.de/4f6rFJC
The Week On-Chain 42, 2024
A notable divergence between supply and demand is emerging, with the market being range-bound for over seven months. With low volumes across on-chain and futures markets and a HODLer-dominated environment, the scene is set for heightened volatility in the near future.
Executive Summary
- The demand side of the market has declined notably since the March ATH, with investor attention thinning as the market chops sideways within this price range.
- On the supply side, available coins are also constricting, with several measures of ‘active supply’ compressing to relatively low levels.
- Historically, tightness in the Bitcoin supply side has been a precursor for a regime of heightened volatility.
- It often describes an equilibrium being reached between the wealth held by new demand and existing HODLers, which tends not to last for very long.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 41, 2024
Following a 10% price correction, the Bitcoin market has rebounded back to the $63k level, in an attempt to reclaim the critical Short-Term Holder cost-basis.
Executive Summary
- Bull Market Drawdowns remain relatively shallow but in line with historical bull market uptrends. This highlights both the similarities and the relative resiliency of the current cycle.
- Both Short-Term Holder positioning and their spending behaviour have largely improved as the spot price attempts to reclaim the Short-Term Holder cost-basis at $62.5k.
- A significant amount of Futures Open Interest remains in place, which may expose the market to deleveraging and liquidation cascades if significant volatility breaks out.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 40, 2024
For the first time since the ATH, Bitcoin has established a new technical higher high, as price bounced into the $66k region. Alongside this, there is a multitude of critical on-chain metrics that have also set higher highs, making this an interesting moment in time.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin’s cyclical price performance shows a striking similarity across the last three cycles, with the index at nearly the same position.
- Long-term Holders holding BTC in loss have risen, as coins bought near the $73k ATH pass the 155-day mark.
- However, the unrealized loss for these investors is minimal, indicating little financial pressure on portfolios.
- Short-Term Holder profitability has improved in the recent rally, bringing relief to recent buyers.
- US ETF investors’ conviction remains strong, with only minor sell-side pressure despite being below their average inflow cost.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
We’re excited to announce that Glassnode will be speaking at Digital Asset Week in London next week, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. Our Chief Commercial Officer, Daniel Blackmore, will be participating in a fireside chat on the transformative power of on-chain analytics at 14:15 on the 3rd of October.
He will be interviewed by Alon Goren, co-founder at Draper Goren Blockchain. The event focuses on the institutional adoption of digital assets, bridging the gap between Traditional Finance and Digital Assets.
Please contact us at sales@glassnode.com if you would like to meet Dan. We look forward to seeing you there!
The Week On-Chain 38, 2024
The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a period of stagnation, with both demand and supply sides showing signs of inactivity. The market is characterized by minimal capital inflows and outflows, as the stagnant Realized Cap indicates.
Executive Summary
- Market demand-side remains lacklustre for digital assets, with the magnitude of both capital inflows and outflows remaining small in scale.
- HODLing remains the primary investor dynamic, with all measures of actively tradable supply declining and large volumes of coins maturing into Long-Term Holder status.
- Price action has been remarkably stagnant over the past six months, driving all variants of the Sell-Side Risk Ratio to low levels, suggesting an expectation for higher volatility ahead.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Week On-Chain 37, 2024
The competitiveness of the Mining landscape and their conviction in the Bitcoin Network continues to rise, with the Hash Rate blasting towards new ATHs. However, investors remain unconvinced in the short term, with exchange-related on-chain volumes beginning to languish.
Executive Summary
- Hash Rate remains just shy of ATHs, as continued investment by Miners demonstrates immense conviction in the Bitcoin Network despite depressed revenues.
- Investor interactions with exchanges are in decline, with contracting volumes across the board, suggesting there is a diminished appetite for investors and trade.
- Both the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are exhibiting outflows, however, investor interest in the Bitcoin ETFs remain significantly larger in scale and magnitude.
Read more in The Week On-Chain Newsletter
The Week On-Chain 35, 2024
Market speculation remains relatively subdued for Bitcoin, with investors locking in only marginal profit and losses, and a reset across perpetual swap markets. Historically, periods of quiet and calm market structure are short-lived, and often precede an expectation for heightened volatility.
Executive Summary
- Net capital flows into the Bitcoin assets have markedly cooled, with only marginal profit and loss-taking events by investors.
- Loss-taking events are almost exclusively associated with the Short-Term Holder cohort.
- However, a significant proportion of supply held by this cohort is transitioning into Long-Term Holder status, having been held for at least 155 days.
- Speculation in the perpetual swap market has experienced a full reset, suggesting a cooling off of speculative interest and long-biased leverage.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Bitcoin Dominance has surged from 38% in Nov 2022 to a notable 56% today. Meanwhile, Ethereum, the second-largest asset, saw its dominance decline by 1.5%, remaining relatively stable over the past two years.
In contrast, Stablecoins and the broader Altcoin sector experienced more significant declines of 9.9% and 5.9%, respectively.
🟠Bitcoin Dominance: 38.7% (Nov 2022) —> 56.2% (Current)
🔵Ethereum Dominance 16.8% —> 15.2%
🟢Stablecoin Dominance 17.3% —> 7.4%
🟣Altcoin Dominance 27.2% —> 21.3%
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇
https://glassno.de/4dPrVvN
The LTH Sell-Side Risk ratio remains lower than during previous ATH breaks, indicating that the LTH cohort is taking smaller profits compared to past cycles. This suggests they may be waiting for higher prices before increasing their selling pressure.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇
https://glassno.de/4fGn2Hk
Last night, David Duong, Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional, and our Lead Analyst, James Check, hosted an insightful webinar, highlighting key takeaways from our Q3 Guide to Crypto Markets.
A big thank you to all the institutional investors who joined us and engaged with thoughtful questions.
If you missed it, you can access the recording here: https://glassno.de/3SRG6sb
The Week On-Chain 33, 2024
With the market currently digesting the largest downtrend of the cycle, indecision amongst digital asset investors remains apparent. However, below the surface, a distinct return to HODLing and accumulation appears to be underway.
Executive Summary
- After several months of relatively heavy distribution pressures, the behavior of Bitcoin holders appears to be rotating back towards HODLing and accumulation.
- Activity in spot markets shows that there has been a net bias towards sell-side pressure of late, and this has not yet completely subsided.
- Compared to ATH breaks in past cycles, there is currently a relatively large percentage of network wealth held by the Long-Term Holder cohort.
- Overall, on-chain conditions speak to an undertone of high conviction amongst the Bitcoin holder-base.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
In derivatives markets, a large volume of long positions were forced closed, with a total volume of $275m worth of long contracts liquidated. Additionally, an extra $90m was liquidated from the short-side, for combined total liquidation volume of $365m.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇
https://glassno.de/3WTkT3t
The Week On-Chain 32, 2024
August has already been a exceptionally eventful month across both equity and digital asset markets, after a “correlation-1” event sparked a major market sell-off. Bitcoin has been no exception, recording its largest drawdown of the cycle, causing capitulation amongst Short-Term Holders.
Executive Summary
- A “correlation 1” event has seen major assets and equities decline markedly, with Bitcoin being no exception, recording its largest drawdown of the cycle.
- The price contraction has resulted in the BTC spot price reaching the Active Investor Price, located at $51.4k, which is a crucial level for investor psychology.
- A dramatic flush out of leverage has also occurred, with futures open interest declining by 11% in one day. This likely increases the importance on on-chain data moving forwards.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Amid global market uncertainty, our on-chain checklist helps traders optimize their exit strategies using Glassnode's on-chain metrics like MVRV Ratio, Long-Term Holder Spending, and HODL Waves.
Learn to identify key levels and navigate market downturns effectively. Download the checklist here: glassno.de/3VAjUVr
The Q4 2024 Guide to Crypto Markets by Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional is here! Despite range-bound prices, significant trends have been unfolding beneath the surface.
Download the full report here: https://glassno.de/3Y0y1De
- Liquidity is surging as markets deepen and institutions take a stronger position.
- On-chain activity rise shows the growing utility of blockchain in real-world applications.
- The continued engagement with spot ETFs shows institutional investors remain committed to these assets.
Get the full analysis in the report.
TRON metrics are now live on Glassnode! Track TRON’s network fundamentals, fund flows, and investor sentiment with your favourite Glassnode metrics, including:
- Total & New Addresses
- Realized Price & Realized Cap
- MVRV & HODL Waves
- TRX Supply Distribution by Wallet Size
Explore these and other metrics today and use the data to gain a better understanding of TRON on-chain activity and performance.
Start with this Dashboard to get an overview: https://glassno.de/3ZZdRMD
We are excited to share that Glassnode’s Chief Commercial Officer, Daniel Blackmore, will be speaking at The Digital Asset Conference, hosted by Fasanara Digital in London, between the 7th - 8th of November.
This event will bring together traditional financial institutions and companies at the forefront of innovation in the digital asset industry.
Daniel will be moderating the panel discussion, “Breaking Boundaries: How Asset Tokenization is Reshaping Global Markets,” at 13:40 on 8th November. Joining him on the panel are Max Boonen, Founder and CEO at PV01, and Ricardo Correia, Partner at Bain & Company.
For those attending, feel free to contact us at sales@glassnode.com.
We look forward to connecting with you!
The Week On-Chain 39, 2024
In the wake of the Federal Reserve's 0.5% interest rate cut, Bitcoin has reclaimed the Short-Term Holder cost basis of ~$61.9k. This rally could achieve technical significance if the price also holds above the 200-day moving average at $63.9k.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has reclaimed the Short-Term Holder cost basis ($61.9k) and 200DMA ($63.9k) following a 0.50% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
- Short-term holders are under marginally less pressure as prices rise above their cost basis, after a period of net capital outflows.
- New investors show a degree of resilience, seen in realized losses being of a relatively small magnitude, suggesting confidence in the overall uptrend.
- The perpetual futures market displays a cautious recovery in sentiment, with gradually increasing demand but still below levels seen during strong bull markets.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Ethereum’s recent price surge, driven largely by speculative tokens, can seem chaotic. Glassnode’s new ERC-20 metrics - recently expanded by over 500 new assets - can help you make sense of this volatile market. Understand recent trends in this market with metrics giving you insights into profit and loss realization, speculator and long-term investor cost basis, or wealth distribution.
For three more weeks, get free access to all these metrics and assets, no matter your subscription plan. Use this time to get a clearer view of the market and hedge your bets more effectively. Start your analysis here: https://glassno.de/3BhgOOs
We're thrilled to announce the expansion of our analytics platform, which now supports over 500 new ERC-20 tokens! With this update, you can apply the same in-depth metrics from your Bitcoin analysis to a wide range of assets within the Ethereum ecosystem, helping you to formulate a comprehensive view of the market.
Our platform now features expanded coverage of key sectors in the ERC-20 landscape, including DeFi, AI-driven tokens, gaming, and staking. Seamlessly track asset fundamentals, capital flows, and sentiment across these sectors, all in one unified place.
Dive deeper into our ERC-20 token coverage in our latest article: https://glassno.de/4d9t28M
The Week On-Chain 36, 2024
The Bitcoin market continues to experience downwards pressure over recent months, despite the average Bitcoin investor remaining profitable overall. However, the Short-Term Holder cohort remains heavily underwater on their holdings, making them a source of risk for the time-being.
Executive Summary
- On average, BTC investors are holding relatively small unrealized losses compared to prior cycles, suggesting a relatively favourable position overall.
- However, Short-Term Holder unrealized losses remain quite elevated, indicating they are the primary cohort at risk.
- Profit and Loss taking activities remain remarkably light, with critical metrics such as the Sell-Side Risk Ratio alluding to a potential for heightened volatility in the near future.
Read more in The Week On-Chain Newsletter
Amidst tumultuous market conditions as of late, Long-Term Holders have been locking in a reasonably consistent $138M in profit per day. With each transaction, a buyer and a seller are matched, with supply and demand imbalances resolved via price changes.
Therefore, we can infer that this ~$138M/day in LTH sell-side pressure is a read for the daily capital inflows required to absorb supply and keep prices steady. While market conditions have been choppy, prices are generally flat over the last few months, suggesting a form of equilibrium is being reached.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇
https://glassno.de/4dPrVvN
The Week On-Chain 34, 2024
Bitcoin, as the leading digital asset, continues to see its dominance expand, now commanding a staggering 56% of the total market capitalization. Supporting this, Bitcoin Long-Term Holders remain steadfast in their conviction, with significant accumulation pressure below the surface.
Executive Summary
- Since the cycle low established in Nov 2022, Bitcoin Dominance has continued to climb, now commanding 56% of the total crypto market capitalization.
- Despite tumultuous and choppy price action, the conviction of Long-Term Holders remains steadfast and unfazed, with a clear preference to accumulate and HODL coins.
- Short-Term Holders have carried the brunt of the losses during the recent downturn, however, the degree of locked in losses suggests a possible overreaction towards the event.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
The Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) indicates a market shift back to accumulation, with the ATS reaching its maximum value of 1.0, signaling significant accumulation over the past month.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/4fGn2Hk
Since Bitcoin's ATH in March, the market has seen widespread supply distribution across all wallet sizes. Recently, this trend shows signs of reversing, especially among the largest wallets, often linked to ETFs, which are now returning to accumulation.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇
https://glassno.de/4fGn2Hk
Amid the recent surge in global volatility, understanding the broader forces at play in crypto markets is more important than ever. Join us on August 15th, at 6 PM EST for an exclusive webinar, featuring Glassnode Analyst, James Check, and David Duong, Head of Institutional Research at Coinbase Institutional.
In this session, James and David will analyze the Q3 Guide to Crypto Markets, offering insights to help you navigate current market turbulence. Key topics include:
- The rapid rise in on-chain activity and what it signals for the future of market adoption.
- The transformative impact of ETFs on market liquidity and investor engagement.
- A deep dive into the current market cycle, comparing it to previous cycles to forecast future trends.
- The significance of MVRV Momentum as a key indicator of market resilience and investor sentiment.
Don’t miss this opportunity to gain a holistic view of the digital asset landscape. Seats are limited—secure your spot today: https://glassno.de/3M095X9
On Monday 5-Aug, equities and digital assets sold off sharply, as the unwinding of the yen-carry trade deleveraged markets, and US treasuries rallied on fears of a recession.
Bitcoin recorded a drawdown of -32% from the ATH, the most severe of the current cycle.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3WTkT3t
Given the sudden market reaction and declines in markets globally, understanding seller exhaustion among short-term holders has become increasingly important. Our analysis of the Short-Term Holder Seller Exhaustion Model provides insights using metrics like STH MVRV, STH SOPR, and STH Realized Loss to navigate through volatile times.
Learn more about this model and its applications here: glassno.de/3WWWzOV
Kraken and Bitstamp have been selected as designated exchanges responsible for redistributing creditor funds. Kraken has now received 49k BTC, and Bitstamp has received the first tranche of 10k BTC.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/4ckrt7X