1981
Leading Educational platform that provides valuable resources and information to traders of all levels https://bio.site/goldfxcc.com
Gold Prices Slip, Hover Near One-Month High
- Gold prices are inching lower on Thursday after shedding earlier gains but remain near a one-month high. This trend is driven by expectations of declining Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. Dollar, influenced by weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data.
- The US CPI showed a smaller-than-expected increase in April, bolstering expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The CPI rose 0.3% last month, following a 0.4% rise in March and February, suggesting a cooling trend in inflation. Economists had anticipated a 0.4% monthly increase. This data led to a 0.6% drop in the dollar against a basket of major currencies, enhancing gold’s appeal for foreign investors. Additionally, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped to a one-month low.
Market Expectations
- Traders are now pricing in a 74% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. However, analysts express caution regarding the timing of potential rate cuts. Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, remarked that the inflation data could indicate the Fed might soon consider an interest rate reduction.
Gold Prices, Mixed Market Sentiment
Short-Term Forecast
- Considering the current economic indicators and geopolitical context, the outlook for gold remains mixed. While the safe-haven demand provides some support, the strengthening dollar and potential for steady or higher US interest rates may limit upward movements.
- Traders currently see a 65% chance of a Fed rate cut by September, but this could shift rapidly with new economic data or geopolitical developments. As such, investors should prepare for possible volatility in gold markets, with a cautious eye on further economic indicators and central bank cues.
- The near-term forecast appears bearish, given the prevailing economic conditions and market sentiment.
Technical View
- The current daily chart pattern suggests trader indecision and impending volatility. The triggerpoint for an acceleration to the upside is $2336.41. Its counterpart for a short-term meltdown is $2277.345. Traders are just waiting for a catalyst before they make their move.
- The nearest major support is the uptrending 50-day moving average at $2251.70.
If you were following along earlier, the key entry points were spot on! The Dow surged by 400 pips, translating to a gain of 4,000 points, while the Nasdaq advanced 150 pips, or 1,500 points. Exciting market movements!
Читать полностью…
XAUUSD another re-entry moving well +270pips
Читать полностью…
A guide to improve your trading results:
💡Prioritise Risk Management
- Focus on managing risk, not just chasing profits.
- Set clear risk per trade, winning rate (WR), and risk-reward ratios (RRR).
- Treat money as a tool to grow your account sustainably.
🏆Quality Over Quantity
- More trades do not necessarily mean more gains.
- Patience pays off; wait for the best opportunities.
📃Have a Clear Plan
- Create a solid plan and stick to it.
- Implement systems consistently and follow your trading rules.
🧠Think Long-Term
- Don't expect overnight success; trading success comes with time.
- Learn from every loss and mistake; they're stepping stones to long-term success.
⚙️Learn from Mistakes
- Use your mistakes as learning opportunities.
- Keep a trading journal to track and understand your mistakes.
💱 Embrace Probabilities
- Trading involves uncertainty; there's never 100% certainty.
- Use data, rules, and risk management to navigate uncertainty.
- Focus on probabilities rather than guaranteed outcomes.
🌟Cultivate the Right Mindset
- Spend 90% of your time waiting and 10% executing.
- Plans, systems, and rules.
- Learn from mistakes and use journaling to improve.
- Stay disciplined and control emotions by thinking in probabilities.
Gold Update
The gold chart is currently in a distribution phase, where it appears that smart money and institutional investors are establishing sell orders in a step-wise manner. This strategic selling could lead to a downward trend in gold prices once the distribution phase is completed. Potential target levels for this decline could be in the range of $2,300 to $2,280. This forecast suggests a potential bearish outlook for gold in the near term, pending the conclusion of the distribution phase.
XAUUSD 1D | Gold prices are facing a potential reversal as Treasury yields rise and the U.S. Dollar strengthens. Despite this, gold retains its appeal as an inflation hedge and safe haven amid geopolitical tensions. The market shows a struggle between bullish and bearish forces, with technical analysis suggesting a possible downturn. Investors should closely monitor economic data, Fed policy signals, and global tensions for insights into gold's near-term direction. If a bearish reversal is confirmed, the next target range is between $2217.29 to $2200.51, while a surge above $2306.435 would indicate a continuation of the uptrend.
Читать полностью…
Gold Prices Surge to New Highs Amidst Market Challenges
Fundamental View:
Despite facing several challenges, gold prices surged to new all-time highs, marking a remarkable rally driven by investor interest and momentum-following funds. This surge comes amidst a backdrop of a strengthening U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields, and expectations of prolonged higher U.S. rates. Additionally, seasonal demand typically decreases during this period, and European investors are selling back physical gold, adding complexity to the market environment. Improved U.S. manufacturing data and ongoing inflation concerns have influenced expectations regarding Federal Reserve actions, impacting both the dollar's strength and gold market trends. Despite these headwinds, the short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, supported by its resilience and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Technical View:
Gold has been trending higher for six consecutive sessions, with bullish traders expecting the trend to continue due to the absence of resistance. The focus remains on momentum, and a shift downwards could prompt nervous longs to take profits. Instead of trying to predict a top, traders are advised to focus on chart patterns. A closing price reversal top would indicate that selling pressure outweighs buying pressure at current levels. However, even if a reversal occurs, it does not necessarily indicate a change in the overall trend. A move through $2146.15 would signal a short-term trend change to the downside, with potential support at the 50-day moving average around $2090.41.
Gold Surges on Safe-Haven Demand and Rate Cut Speculations
Gold prices surged in March, marking their strongest month since November 2022. The uptick is fueled by robust safe-haven demand, anticipation of U.S. interest rate cuts, and substantial central bank acquisitions. XAU/USD climbed approximately 8%, extending its second consecutive quarterly rise. Everett Millman, chief market analyst at Gainesville Coins, underscores ongoing global geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties as key drivers pushing investors towards gold.
At Record Highs with Central Bank Momentum
Gold recently hit an all-time high, with projections of further escalation as central banks ramp up their bullion acquisitions. Shaokai Fan from the World Gold Council emphasises the pivotal role of central banks in this trend, noting vigorous purchasing activity despite elevated interest rates and a resilient dollar.
Inflation, Interest Rates, and Gold
Amid indications of persistent inflation, traders are speculating on potential rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Gold prices typically thrive inversely to interest rates, gaining allure as rates decline. Aakash Doshi from Citi forecasts a climb to $2,300 per ounce in the latter half of 2024, contingent upon Federal Reserve rate adjustments.
China and Poland Lead Gold Acquisition
China’s central bank emerges as the foremost gold acquirer, spurred by robust individual investments in response to economic and real estate challenges. Poland, influenced by the proximity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, ranks as the second-largest net consumer, closely trailed by Singapore. These acquisitions reflect strategic moves by central banks amid escalating geopolitical risks.
Retail Demand Bolsters Gold Market
Retail purchases, encompassing jewelry, bars, and coins, also bolster gold prices. China leads in retail gold acquisitions, while India’s substantial consumer demand, particularly during the wedding season, remains pivotal. Despite potential impacts of higher gold prices on India’s jewelry demand, investment in gold bars and coins remains resilient.
Bullish Gold Forecast Amidst Global Uncertainties
Analysts from Citi and Berenberg express bullish sentiments on gold, anticipating potential surges in response to global events and U.S. elections. Gold’s role as a recession hedge and safe-haven asset gains prominence amidst geopolitical tensions and economic ambiguities. Market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts further drive bullish momentum, albeit with anticipated volatility due to diverse macroeconomic drivers and geopolitical events. ING strategists underscore the pivotal role of Federal Reserve policies in shaping future gold price trajectories.
EASTER Quick Sale! Enjoy 65% discount on Accelerated & CurrencyPro. Don't miss out, use code “EASTER65” today! 🎁 #trading #discount #easter
⍟ GOLDFXCC.com
Sale ends: 31/03/24
📝 The greatest traders of all times they all have similarities:
1. Flexibility:
Open-minded to the fact that anything can happen. They aren't stubborn with losing trades if the reasons for being in
them has changed.
2. Passion:
They love trading. It is both their profession and game. It is like a sport to them that they enjoy winning.
3. Risk/ Reward
They think in terms of probabilities. Their language of trading is math. Risk/Reward ratios and odds is how they see the markets.
4. Confidence:
The have faith in their method and faith in their self to execute it with discipline over time.
They don't ask others for their market opinions or future predictions.
They ignore the noise and focus on what matters for their own strategy.
5. Risk Management
They manage their position size and risk exposure to avoid the risk of ruin. They keep the money they make.
6. Patience
They usually get in a trade a little late and get out of a trade a little early and make money on the majority of a move but not all of it.
7. Backtesting
They are market historians and market backtesting. They have studied the charts, macro, and economics of world history and understand what had happened in the past.
FOMC Meeting Expectations and Gold Markets
Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming FOMC meeting, eager to gauge how Federal Reserve officials will respond to the recent inflation report. With inflation showing an increase, investors are anxious about potential adjustments to the projected rate cuts by the Fed for the year. Based on the December FOMC meeting's dot plot, it is anticipated that the Fed may reduce rates by three quarters of a percent in total this year.
The Federal Open Market Committee is set to convene tomorrow, with expectations currently leaning towards no rate changes this month. According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark interest rate within the range of 5 ¼% and 5 ½%.
MT newswires reported insights from PVM oil brokers, suggesting a looming era of interest rate easing. Despite deliberations among central bank officials, markets are optimistic about an eventual loosening of fiscal policies worldwide.
Despite recent inflation reports indicating an uptick and the dollar's strength, gold has displayed resilience, forming a stable base below its all-time high achieved two weeks ago.
Assuming the Federal Reserve maintains consistency in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and market participants have largely priced in last week's inflationary reports, gold is expected to remain resilient and potentially see further price increases.
Market Education
Subject: Forex Liquidity and Types
There are several types of liquidity in the forex market:
⭐️Market liquidity:
- This refers to the overall liquidity of the market, or the ease with which a currency pair can be bought or sold at any given time. Market liquidity is influenced by various factors, including the volume of traders in the market, the level of central bank intervention, and the overall level of economic activity.
⭐️Broker liquidity:
- Refers to the liquidity that a brokerage firm provides to its clients. A brokerage with high liquidity will be able to execute trades more quickly and at more favorable prices than a brokerage with low liquidity.
⭐️Dealer liquidity:
- This refers to the liquidity provided by a dealer or market maker, who stands ready to buy or sell a particular currency pair at any time. Dealer liquidity is usually higher than broker liquidity, as dealers have a larger pool of capital to draw upon.
⭐️Interbank liquidity:
- Refers to the liquidity provided by banks that trade with each other in the interbank market. Interbank liquidity is typically the highest of all, as banks have access to vast amounts of capital and can trade with each other directly, without the need for intermediaries.
✅️Bullish Momentum on Gold Continues Amid Uncertainty
- The gold market experienced some volatility during Thursday's session and continued its rally on today, Friday.
- The market remains bullish due to its ongoing uptrend. In this context, buying the dip is a preferred strategy. The market is expected to maintain upward momentum and could eventually test the recent highs around $2,400.
While it remains uncertain whether the market will break through the $2,400 level, it wouldn't be surprising given the numerous factors supporting a move higher. Central banks are likely to cut interest rates in the near future, which could drive gold prices up. Additionally, geopolitical concerns continue to draw investors into the market.
The $2,300 level remains a significant support area, previously providing stability. The 50-day EMA is also approaching this level, which could attract buyers. A potential bullish flag pattern may be forming, though it may not be a classic example. Regardless, the market is in a strong uptrend, and this trajectory is expected to persist.
•Instagram | •TradingView | •Icmarket
Читать полностью…
Quick Market Update
Many pairs, particularly those involving JPY, are nearing the end of their buying climax, suggesting that the distribution phase is underway. Some pairs, such as GBPJPY, have already completed their distribution phases and are on the verge of a falling impulse. Keep an eye on EURJPY, CADJPY, and NZDJPY as they are also in this pattern.
Indices such as the Dow and Nasdaq are poised to reach historic highs as the US election approaches. Dow buying zones 38160 and Nasdaq 17500
Also the US index appears poised to hit top imbalance levels around 109.00. Yellow metals seem to be undergoing heavy correction. Stay alert and adjust your view accordingly.
ℹ️ Remember, to truly succeed in this industry, it's important to stay disciplined and committed to your goals. 🏆
Читать полностью…
Gold has reached the target level of $2,300 as mentioned earlier. The distribution phase may be completing, which could lead to a potential bearish outlook in the near term. Please be cautious with your positions and stay updated for further movements.
Читать полностью…
Gold Market Insight: Asian Central Bank Purchases Propel Gold Prices to Record Highs
Key Points:
- Gold prices soar to unprecedented levels driven by significant purchases from Asian central banks.
- China's bolstered gold reserves underscore its increasing focus on gold assets.
- Despite a robust U.S. economy and inflation indicators, the gold market continues to thrive.
Gold Market Overview:
Gold prices have surged to new peaks, marking an unprecedented streak of seven consecutive sessions of growth. This remarkable ascent is largely attributed to substantial acquisitions by Asian central banks, despite the backdrop of a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated interest rates.
Influence of Central Banks on Gold Prices:
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the Reserve Bank of India have notably expanded their gold reserves, contributing significantly to the recent surge in gold prices. China's gold reserves climbed to 72.74 million fine troy ounces in March, signaling robust demand from the official sector. This heightened buying activity by global central banks stands as a pivotal catalyst behind the current surge in prices.
China’s Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves:
- China's foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, reached $3.246 trillion in March, accompanied by an increase in the value of China's gold reserves to $161.07 billion. These developments, alongside the yuan's depreciation against the dollar, underscore China's escalating interest in gold as a reserve asset.
Market Response and Projections:
- Despite challenges posed by strong U.S. economic indicators and potential delays in interest rate hikes, bullion prices have soared by over 13% this year. UBS has revised its year-end bullion target to $2,250 per ounce, anticipating heightened demand and ETF acquisitions. However, subdued physical gold demand in India has been observed due to escalating domestic prices.U.S. Economic Indicators and Treasury Yields: Investors are closely monitoring U.S. Treasury yields and key economic indicators, including the March consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), to assess inflation patterns and interest rate outlooks. Robust labor market data, with nonfarm payrolls surpassing estimates, suggests the possibility of an extended period of high interest rates.
US Dollar and Global Economic Indicators:
- The U.S. dollar maintains its strength, influenced by recent job data and anticipations regarding the forthcoming inflation report. Global currency trends this week will also be impacted by the European Central Bank meeting. With varying signals from Federal Reserve officials, the market is seeking clarity on the economic outlook and rate decisions.
Technical Analysis:
Gold presents an uptrend with no discernible resistance, though a close below $2330.16 would indicate greater selling pressure compared to buying at current levels. A breach of the intraday high at $2354.16 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a move below $2267.78 would shift the minor trend downwards.
Smart Money Trading on 15M Timeframe
1. Start by analysing the 15-minute timeframe for instances where liquidity is quickly absorbed, indicated by a wick closing instead of the body of a candle.
2. Transition to the 1-minute timeframe following the liquidity absorption to identify changes in market structure.
3. Enter the trade at the point of extreme Fair Value Gap (FVG) or Order-block, placing the stop-loss at the third candle that formed the FVG. Aim to target the nearest swing prior to the liquidity grab.
Accelerated #trades🎁🏆
⍟ GOLDFXCC.com
EASTER Quick Sale! ends today March 31st🎁
Читать полностью…
Gold's Rise Fueled by Rate Cut Speculation and Central Bank Buying Activity
Gold's significant surge has been propelled by growing optimism about potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Despite recent unexpected inflation upticks, the Fed remains steadfast in its belief that this is a temporary anomaly, maintaining projections for a series of 0.75% rate cuts starting in June. This stance has boosted gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset amid low-interest-rate environments. Additionally, increased buying activity from central banks globally, signaling their intent to cut rates, has further fueled gold's rise as a hedge against economic uncertainties and market volatility. As North America and Europe prepare for the long Easter weekend, attention remains fixed on gold, which, despite short-term fluctuations, continues to be a crucial asset for investors amidst economic uncertainty.
Fed Rate Cuts, Central Bank Buys Drive XAU/USD Demand
- Gold prices have recently skyrocketed due to several key factors. Firstly, the Federal Reserve's plans to lower interest rates have weakened the value of the US dollar and reduced bond yields. This makes gold, which doesn't yield interest, more attractive to investors, especially those using other currencies. Despite inflation concerns, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's reassurance that price pressures are gradually easing further weakened the dollar and boosted gold's appeal.
Additionally, central banks worldwide, notably the People's Bank of China, Poland, and Singapore, have been actively purchasing gold. These acquisitions, driven by concerns over financial stability amid geopolitical tensions, have provided strong support for gold prices. Moreover, retail demand for gold in major markets like China and India has also contributed to its price strength.
Market reactions to the Fed's stance have been swift, with expectations of rate cuts rising significantly. As a result, the dollar index stabilized, and gold prices surged to new highs. Analysts foresee further increases, potentially reaching $2,300 per ounce by late 2024, primarily driven by anticipated US rate cuts.
The Fed's accommodative policy, robust demand, and central bank purchases creates a favorable environment for price appreciation. However, traders need to stay alert to central bank actions and global economic indicators, as these factors could influence the market's direction.
Technical View
- Short-term support is $2184.53. With the trend up, new buyers could emerge on a pullback into this level. Once again, the choice for bullish traders is to chase higher prices or play for a pullback. Traders also have to determine how much of the Fed news has already been priced into the market.
A lower close today or a trade through the swing bottom at $2146.15 will be signs of significant weakness that could lead to 2080.
The Power of Process-Oriented Goals in Trading
Shift your focus away from monetary targets like "$1000 a day" or "20k a month." These goals won't necessarily enhance your performance. Instead, concentrate on process-oriented objectives such as executing every trade according to your plan, prioritising risk management consistently, and maintaining patience during market lulls. These are the real drivers of success in trading.
• Fast Order Execution
• Institutional Grade Liquidity
• Powerful Trading Terminals
GOLDFXCC/ICMARKETS
Jobs report strengthens conviction of a June rate cut by the Fed
The latest jobs report indicates that the economy added 275,000 jobs in February, but the unemployment rate also slightly increased to 3.9%. This strengthens the belief that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates by June.
Fed Chair Powell and others have been saying that they're watching inflation closely and might cut rates if it's not picking up. Today's report supports this idea, showing enough growth for a "soft landing." The chances of a rate cut in June are now high, according to market indicators.
This news pushed stock prices to new highs and lowered Treasury yields. Gold prices also rose due to a weaker dollar. Traders are now waiting for next week's inflation data, which might show rising prices, especially in energy. Economists expect a 0.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index for February.