1981
Leading Educational platform that provides valuable resources and information to traders of all levels https://bio.site/goldfxcc.com
You’re one decision away from a different life. One breakthrough trade. One moment of clarity. One stretch of discipline.
This game isn’t just about charts — it’s about you.
Your patience.
Your mindset.
Your refusal to fold when things get tough.
The truth?
Money moves to the focused. Wealth flows to the disciplined.
While others chase hype, you’re mastering the craft.
While others panic, you remain calm in the storm.
That’s power.
That’s edge.
$100 to $100K is not luck. It’s precision. It’s obsession with discipline and progress.
Gold Prices— Sharp Correction
- Gold prices have recently experienced a notable pullback after reaching a record high of $3,500.
- The recent downturn in gold prices is viewed as a healthy correction following an overextended rally. Analysts are closely monitoring Fibonacci retracement levels for potential support. The first significant support is identified at $3,228.38, corresponding to the 50% retracement of the rally from $2,956.56 to $3,500.20. Should this level fail to hold, the next support is anticipated at $3,164.23, aligning with the 61.8% retracement level.
- The pullback coincides with a softening in safe-haven demand, influenced by recent political developments. President Trump’s moderated stance on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and a less aggressive approach to China tariffs have eased investor concerns, reducing the urgency to seek refuge in gold.
- While the current correction has tempered the bullish momentum, gold’s long-term fundamentals remain strong. Investors are advised to watch the $3,228.38 and $3,164.23 support levels closely. A rebound from these levels could signal a resumption of the upward trend. Conversely, a breach below these supports may indicate a deeper correction.
At the end of each trading day, aim to see no more than 3 closed trades in your history. It’s not just about safety—it’s a proven approach for consistent, long-term growth.
It’s easy to fall into the trap of chasing the market—whether it’s trying to recover a loss or squeezing out every last dollar. But the truth is, less is more.
Stick to your structure, trade only what you understand, and let your edge do the work.
Fewer trades. Smarter trades.
That’s how you build not just profits—but a career, and most importantly, character.
Trump Imposes Sweeping Tariffs, Global Retaliation Looms
On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a broad set of tariffs under the initiative dubbed “Liberation Day,” aimed at reshaping the U.S. economy and global trade. The new policy imposes a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all imports, with significantly higher “reciprocal tariffs” targeting specific countries: 34% on Chinese goods, 35% on Vietnamese imports, 32% on Taiwanese products, and 20% on goods from the European Union. Additionally, a 25% tariff has been placed on foreign-made automobiles and auto parts.
European Union: EU officials have vowed “firm” and “proportionate” countermeasures, with planned tariffs on American products such as bourbon whiskey, jeans, and motorcycles—aiming to match the economic impact of U.S. tariffs.
Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney warned of possible retaliation, emphasising the need to defend Canadian economic interests.
China & Japan: Both nations have voiced concerns, with Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stating that “all options are on the table” in response.
With uncertainty looming, investors are expected to seek safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.
Gold Prices—What’s Next?
- Gold prices have surged to record highs, surpassing $3000 per ounce, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid escalating market uncertainties.
- Factors contributing to this rise include heightened geopolitical tensions, new U.S. tariff threats, and concerns over a potential economic slowdown. Major financial institutions, such as Goldman Sachs, have raised their year-end forecasts for gold prices to $3,100 per ounce, anticipating sustained central bank demand and potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
- Analysts suggest that if these conditions persist, gold could reach $3,300 per ounce by the end of the year. However, investors should remain cautious, as the long bull market suggests gold may be overvalued, and potential economic improvements could diminish its appeal.
XAUUSD Weekly Long Term https://www.tradingview.com/x/0FCEgZiQ/
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Daily Trading Reminder: Stay Flexible & Trade What You See
When preparing for your daily trading direction remember BE FLEXIBLE. Always trade exactly what the market shows you— not what you wish to see.
If the market is trending down but reaches your buy order block, don’t hesitate—trust your system and take the trade and vice versa. Use logic and rational judgment 100% of the time. The market doesn’t care about opinions; it moves how it moves. Adapt, execute, and stay disciplined.
Stay sharp and trade smart!
Gold Outlook — Tariff Threats Fuel Gold’s Rally
- Gold’s rally is being driven by Federal Reserve policy cues, rising Treasury yields, and geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed recently held rates steady at 4.25%-4.5% after a series of cuts, with Chair Jerome Powell stressing the need for “real progress” on inflation before further action. A more hawkish Fed could temporarily pressure gold by boosting yields, although inflation worries remain front and center.
- Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields edged higher ahead of key economic data, while the dollar held steady and the yen strengthened as investors sought safe-haven assets amid talks of a Ukraine ceasefire and uncertainty over proposed tariffs.
- Trump’s new tariff threats—targeting auto imports, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals—have further bolstered gold’s appeal. Despite hitting an all-time high of $2,947.08, a short-term pullback is possible if gold dips below $2,864.33. However, strong dip-buying interest and continued safe-haven demand keep the long-term target of $3,000 within reach.
The Fed interest rate decision came in as expected at 4.50%. This aligns with expectations, so gold may not see extreme volatility unless significant new guidance is provided in the press conference.
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Safe-Haven Demand Pushes Prices Higher Amid Trade Uncertainty
➠ Gold’s upward momentum and the breakout above $2,726.30 suggest a bullish outlook for the near term. If prices continue to rise, the market could test the all-time high of $2,790.17. However, resistance could emerge if the U.S. dollar strengthens further or if markets anticipate prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
➠ Traders should closely monitor upcoming U.S. economic data, including housing statistics and PMI releases, as well as any developments in Trump’s trade policies, which could provide additional catalysts for gold prices.
➠ President Donald Trump floated the possibility of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. While this prompted a temporary rebound in the greenback, gold’s safe-haven appeal remained intact, supported by lingering concerns over trade policy uncertainty.
The Truth About Losses, Fear, Winning Trades
Losses are inevitable in trading. You might start with $10,000, lose $2,000, and then grind your way back to breakeven. At this point, what do most traders do? They shrink their lot sizes out of fear of losing again. It feels “safe,” but this is actually one of the biggest mistakes you can make.
If your strategy worked to recover your losses, why abandon it now? The truth is, trading smaller at this point isn’t about being cautious—it’s about fear controlling your decisions. And fear is a trader’s worst enemy. It whispers, “Play it safe; you can’t afford another loss,” but that same fear stops you from capitalizing on opportunities that could grow your account.
Bet More When the Market is on Your Side
The real difference between struggling traders and the pros is this: Pros don’t just sit on a winning trade—they press their advantage when the market moves in their favor. And the best time to do this? When the market is trending.
A trendy market is your best friend as a trader. Trends create momentum, and momentum is where the big money is made. When the market is moving strongly in your favor, that’s your signal to scale in, add to your position, and let your winners run.
Think about it: Why would you hesitate to bet more when everything is working for you? Fear. But successful trading requires breaking free from that fear. When the market aligns with your strategy and gives you momentum, you need to trust your analysis and capitalise on the trend.
How to Maximize Profits in a Trendy Market
⚡️The 2025 blueprint:
1. Identify the Trend:
Look for strong momentum, whether it’s bullish or bearish. Confirm the trend with your tools and analysis.
2. Enter Smartly:
Take your initial position with proper risk management. Never over-leverage at the start.
3. Scale as the Trend Grows:
As the market continues to move in your favor, add to your position in small, controlled increments. This lets you capitalise on the trend without exposing yourself to unnecessary risk.
4. Let Winners Run:
Don’t cut a winning trade short out of fear. Let the market do its thing, and close only when your strategy signals an exit.
The Bottom Line
Losses are part of trading, but fear is the real killer. Add to your position, bet bigger, and let your winners grow.
Gold Struggles Amid Fed Policy and Strong Dollar
- Gold prices closed last week at $2,623.61, marking a 0.95% weekly loss. Despite a peak at $2,790.17 in early November, the metal has struggled to regain upward momentum. Resistance levels remain at $2,663.51 and $2,726.30, with key support at $2,571.68 and $2,533.76.
- The Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy continues to weigh on gold, with the Fed projecting just two rate cuts in 2025. This has heightened the opportunity cost of holding gold as Treasury yields rise, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.40%. A strong U.S. dollar, with the DXY index at 107.18, has also dampened gold demand, making it more expensive for international buyers.
- Gold saw a brief reprieve after weaker-than-expected PCE inflation data in November caused the dollar to dip by 0.4%. However, this was insufficient to signal a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy, keeping the outlook cautious.
- Looking ahead a sustained cooling of inflation or signs of economic slowdown could weaken the dollar and lower yields, both of which would boost gold. Geopolitical risks may also revive safe-haven demand. Until these factors align, gold’s near-term outlook leans bearish, with limited prospects for a sustained rally.
Gold Market— Ahead of NFP
- Gold prices are currently trading within a key range. Resistance levels are seen between $2,663.51 and $2,693.40, with further barriers at $2,721.42 if upward momentum builds. On the downside, support is between $2,629.13 and $2,607.35, with a potential drop to $2,538.50 if prices move below this zone.
- The market currently assigns a 73% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, up from 66% following dovish comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller. UBS forecasts a 25-bps cut this month, with additional reductions totaling 100 bps expected through 2025.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains near a one-month low, with only a slight increase, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Additionally, the U.S. dollar has weakened by 0.2%, further supporting gold’s appeal.
- Geopolitical tensions continue to provide safe-haven demand for gold. The fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, coupled with strikes in southern Lebanon, has contributed to heightened instability, keeping gold in demand.
In the short term, gold is expected to trade between $2,620 and $2,650, with its direction influenced by upcoming U.S. economic data, including job openings, the ADP employment report, and Friday’s payrolls numbers.
Gold Price Outlook – Gold Market Continues to See Buyers
- Gold prices closed the week at $2,650.35, marking a recovery from earlier losses as traders prepared for critical U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve decisions. The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment. Last month’s payroll growth of just 12,000, affected by temporary factors like Hurricane Milton, raised expectations for a rebound. Consensus estimates suggest job gains of around 220,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
- A stronger-than-expected NFP report could reduce the likelihood of a December rate cut, boosting the dollar and pressuring gold prices by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Conversely, weaker data could fuel expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve, weakening the dollar and providing upward momentum for gold. Inflation remains a complicating factor, as last week’s Core PCE data indicated persistent inflationary pressures, challenging the Fed’s ability to move aggressively toward rate cuts. However, market expectations still favor a 25-basis-point reduction, currently priced at 66%.
- Geopolitical risks continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset. While optimism over ceasefire talks in the Middle East subdued demand earlier in the week, ongoing conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, remain a source of uncertainty. This backdrop offers strong support for gold, particularly in times of risk aversion. Additionally, sustained central bank buying by major players like China, Russia, and India reinforces long-term demand for the metal.
- Technically, gold is trading near critical levels. Resistance is evident around $2,663, with a sustained move above this level signaling potential for further gains. Conversely, strong support at $2,631 provides a floor for prices. A break below could trigger further consolidation, but this is unlikely given the current geopolitical and economic environment. Traders should expect heightened volatility!
Elevated Treasury Yields Signaling More Gold Weakness?
- Gold prices experienced their sharpest weekly decline in over three years, dropping 4.52% ($121.23) to close at $2,563.22. The sell-off was driven by rising Treasury yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.505%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index (DXY) surged to a one-year high of 107.064, reducing gold’s appeal to international buyers. Strong economic data, including better-than-expected retail sales and persistent inflation pressures, further supported the dollar and reduced expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts.
- Technical View, gold remains under pressure, with critical support at $2,533.76. A break below this level could lead to further declines toward the 50% retracement level at $2,387.23. Resistance levels are noted at $2,571.68 and $2,631.04. The short-term outlook is bearish, with sustained dollar strength and elevated yields likely to weigh on prices. However, stabilisation at current levels might spark a technical rebound above $2,571.68 to 2600.
XAUUSD Moving well +1500pips #longterm
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XAUUSD Weekly view https://www.tradingview.com/x/17dOcaGc/
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Gold Record High at $3,149 Triggers Overbought Warning
- Gold surged to a new record high of $3,149.09 on Tuesday, extending its impressive rally as investors sought refuge in the safe-haven asset. The surge comes ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s anticipated announcement on sweeping reciprocal tariffs, adding to market uncertainty. Over the past few sessions, gold has gained over $150, breaking through key resistance levels and pushing into overbought territory.
- Geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties are driving demand for gold. Trump’s planned tariffs, expected to be unveiled on Wednesday, have heightened market anxiety. Adrian Ash of BullionVault noted, “Trump’s tariff rhetoric and his increasingly unpredictable stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine are creating the perfect storm for record-breaking gold prices.”
-Further fueling demand, Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, expecting additional Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, strengthening its appeal.
- Gold’s rally is also being supported by sustained central bank buying and growing Western investor interest, with increasing inflows into gold-backed ETFs reflecting strong market conviction. Carsten Menke of Julius Baer emphasized that geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Europe continues to fuel safe-haven demand.
- Despite its strong uptrend, gold appears technically stretched. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 70, signaling overbought conditions. However, the bullish momentum remains intact unless prices break below critical support levels. Short-term technical support stands at $2,999.46, with $2,955.00 serving as a key threshold for a deeper pullback. The 50-day moving average at $2,918.48 represents a crucial long-term support zone. While Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank warns that a short-term correction is possible, he believes the broader uptrend remains intact.
- The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, supported by geopolitical risks, trade policy concerns, dovish Federal Reserve expectations, and robust investor demand. However, given the rapid price surge, a short-term pullback is possible.
Gold Prices— Bearish Reversal Targets $2,746.58 Amid Fed Uncertainty
- Gold fell 2.66% last week, closing at $2,858.14—its first weekly decline in over two months. A stronger U.S. dollar and concerns over delayed Fed rate cuts fueled selling pressure, while global trade tensions failed to lift safe-haven demand for bullion.
- The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.3% in January, with core PCE up 2.6% year-over-year, slightly lower than December’s 2.7%. While markets still price in a 79% chance of a June rate cut, the Fed’s cautious approach has dimmed gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Trade Tensions Boost Dollar, Not Gold
- Despite rising global trade risks, investors sought refuge in the U.S. dollar rather than gold. The dollar index climbed nearly 0.9%, hitting a two-week high after President Trump reaffirmed tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports. The stronger dollar made gold more expensive for foreign buyers, further pressuring demand.
More Downside Before a Rebound!
- Gold remains fundamentally strong due to central bank demand, inflation risks, and geopolitical uncertainties. However, technical signals suggest a deeper pullback. A break below $2,832.72 would confirm a bearish reversal, targeting $2,746.58 in the coming weeks.
- A meaningful rebound may require softer U.S. economic data, a more dovish Fed, or heightened geopolitical tensions. Until then, gold could stay under pressure as investors favor cash and the dollar over bullion.
—The Evolution of a Trader
When you first step into trading, you may experience what many call beginner’s luck. At this stage, you’re not overanalysing—you simply see an order block, trust it, and execute.
At this point, trading feels simple—almost effortless. There’s an innocence to it. You barely have a plan, yet somehow, things seem to work in your favor.
This is also the phase where many traders dream big. It’s easy to set grand goals—like turning a small account into a fortune. Some even make reckless mistakes, such as borrowing money to chase a million-dollar dream.
But then, reality strikes. A few unexpected losses shake your confidence. Doubt creeps in. You start questioning everything you thought you knew. The search for a way to eliminate losses begins—a mistake in itself because losses can never be completely avoided, only managed.
Desperate for answers, you fall for the dream sellers—the ones who promise a 100% win rate, a flawless strategy, or a secret formula to effortless wealth. The promise of certainty is tempting, so you buy into it.
But after consuming their so-called “holy grail” course, you make another critical error: you skip the practice. No backtesting, no refining, no real engagement with the material. Instead, you rush straight to live execution, expecting instant success.
And suddenly, something shifts—you can no longer see the market as you once did. Where you once placed trades with clarity, you now hesitate. You’re burdened by an overwhelming number of conditions, desperately trying to find the perfect, risk-free setup before taking action. The simplicity you started with is gone, replaced by analysis paralysis.
The cycle continues until one day, you wake up to the truth: successful trading isn’t just about strategy. It’s part skill, part self-discovery, and above all, discipline.
Here’s the reality—every trading concept works. Even the simplest ones. The real challenge isn’t finding a flawless strategy; it’s resisting the human urge to constantly seek something “better” instead of mastering one approach that works consistently over time.
Trading is a progressive skill. The more you engage, the better you get. Mastery isn’t found in searching for perfection—it’s in execution and discipline!
I’m about to drop a mind-blowing proven theory on order blocks—one that actually makes sense and goes way deeper than the vague explanations in 99% of videos out there.
After three years of testing this on TradingView charts, I’ve figured out exactly how to identify and validate order blocks with precision “NOT ALL ORDER BLOCK out there are actually OB”. This isn’t just another surface-level breakdown—this is the real deal.
I’ll be sharing everything in an upcoming game-changing YouTube video. If you’re serious about trading, you won’t want to miss this. Stay tuned!
GOLDFXCC
💻Core ICT Terminology Explained
1. PDH (Previous Day High)
The highest price level reached during the previous trading day.
2. PDL (Previous Day Low)
The lowest price level reached during the previous trading day.
3. PWH (Previous Week High)
The highest price level reached during the previous trading week.
4. PWL (Previous Week Low)
The lowest price level reached during the previous trading week.
5. BMS (Break in Market Structure)
Occurs when price breaks a significant structural level, indicating a possible trend reversal or continuation.
6. CE (Consequent Encroachment)
Refers to the midpoint (50%) of a Fair Value Gap (FVG), often used as a key level for price interaction.
7. SH (Stop Hunt)
A deliberate price movement targeting stop-loss levels to trigger liquidity.
8. SMS (Shift in Market Structure)
A sudden change in the market’s directional bias, often signaling a reversal.
9. MS (Market Structure)
The overall framework of price movement, consisting of trends, consolidations, and key price levels.
10. RTO (Return to Order Block/Origin)
When price retraces to a previously identified Order Block (OB) or origin of a move.
11. OB (Order Block)
A price area where significant buying or selling occurred, typically created by institutional traders.
12. OTE (Optimal Trade Entry)
A high-probability entry point within a retracement, often around the 62%-79% Fibonacci levels.
13. IPDA (Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm)
The algorithm governing how banks and institutions deliver price over time, creating observable patterns.
14. FVG (Fair Value Gap)
A price imbalance where no trades occurred, often between consecutive candles, indicating potential price targets.
15. LP (Liquidity Pool)
A cluster of pending orders, such as stop-loss or take-profit orders, serving as targets for price.
16. PA (Price Action)
The raw movement of price on a chart without relying on indicators.
17. IOF (Institutional Order Flow)
The directional bias of large institutions’ trades that influences market trends.
18. HTF (Higher Time Frame)
Longer time frames (e.g., daily, weekly) used to analyze overarching trends and context.
19. LTF (Lower Time Frame)
Shorter time frames (e.g., 5-min, 15-min) used for precise entries and exits.
20. AMD (Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution)
A market cycle describing phases where price consolidates, traps traders, and then trends in the intended direction.
21. PO3 (Power of 3)
A concept describing how price accumulates, manipulates, and then distributes in one session or move.
22. RN (Round Numbers)
Psychological price levels like 1.2000 or 1.5000, often used as support/resistance.
23. EQH (Equal High)
Two or more highs at the same level, indicating liquidity above.
24. EQL (Equal Low)
Two or more lows at the same level, indicating liquidity below.
25. SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity)
A cluster of sell orders or stop-losses below price, often targeted by the market.
26. BSL (Buy-Side Liquidity)
A cluster of buy orders or stop-losses above price, often targeted by the market.
27. HL (Higher Low)
A low that is higher than the previous low, signaling an uptrend.
28. HH (Higher High)
A high that is higher than the previous high, signaling an uptrend.
29. LH (Lower High)
A high that is lower than the previous high, signaling a downtrend.
30. LL (Lower Low)
A low that is lower than the previous low, signaling a downtrend.
31. BOS (Break of Market Structure)
A significant break of a key structural level, confirming a shift in trend or continuation.
32. Balanced Price Range (BPR) An area where two FVGs overlap, suggesting a balanced price zone.
33. External Range Liquidity (ERL) Liquidity residing outside a defined price range, often targeted during stop hunts.
34. Internal Range Liquidity (IRL) Liquidity within a price range, typically associated with consolidation phases.
The Truth About Losses, Fear, Winning Trades
Losses are inevitable in trading. You might start with $10,000, lose $2,000, and then grind your way back to breakeven. At this point, what do most traders do? They shrink their lot sizes out of fear of losing again. It feels “safe,” but this is actually one of the biggest mistakes you can make.
If your strategy worked to recover your losses, why abandon it now? The truth is, trading smaller at this point isn’t about being cautious—it’s about fear controlling your decisions. And fear is a trader’s worst enemy. It whispers, “Play it safe; you can’t afford another loss,” but that same fear stops you from capitalizing on opportunities that could grow your account.
Bet More When the Market is on Your Side
The real difference between struggling traders and the pros is this: Pros don’t just sit on a winning trade—they press their advantage when the market moves in their favor. And the best time to do this? When the market is trending.
A trendy market is your best friend as a trader. Trends create momentum, and momentum is where the big money is made. When the market is moving strongly in your favor, that’s your signal to scale in, add to your position, and let your winners run.
Think about it: Why would you hesitate to bet more when everything is working for you? Fear. But successful trading requires breaking free from that fear. When the market aligns with your strategy and gives you momentum, you need to trust your analysis and capitalise on the trend.
How to Maximize Profits in a Trendy Market
⚡️The 2025 blueprint:
1. Identify the Trend:
Look for strong momentum, whether it’s bullish or bearish. Confirm the trend with your tools and analysis.
2. Enter Smartly:
Take your initial position with proper risk management. Never over-leverage at the start.
3. Scale as the Trend Grows:
As the market continues to move in your favor, add to your position in small, controlled increments. This lets you capitalise on the trend without exposing yourself to unnecessary risk.
4. Let Winners Run:
Don’t cut a winning trade short out of fear. Let the market do its thing, and close only when your strategy signals an exit.
The Bottom Line
Losses are part of trading, but fear is the real killer. Add to your position, bet bigger, and let your winners grow.
Gold Prices— Economic and Political Uncertainty
- Gold prices have recently surpassed the $2,629 resistance level, establishing it as new support, with targets now set on the 50-day moving average at $2,659. This bullish trend is fueled by expectations of inflation from President-elect Donald Trump’s policies and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts.
- Analysts predict that gold could reach $3,000 by mid 2025, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, robust central bank purchases, and market demand for safe-haven assets. Gold’s 27% gain in 2024 marked its strongest performance since 2010, with these drivers expected to persist in 2025.
Traders are advised to keep an eye on economic data and developments, as gold’s technical position indicates further potential gains in the short term.
Why December is a Challenging Month for Trading?
• Reduced Liquidity
- Many institutional traders are on holiday, leading to lower market participation. This results in thinner markets, higher volatility, and challenges in executing trades effectively.
• Portfolio Adjustments
- Fund managers and investors engage in activities like tax-loss selling (offloading losing positions to offset gains) and window dressing (rebalancing portfolios to improve year-end appearances). These practices distort price movements, creating sudden, erratic changes in the market that may not align with underlying fundamentals.
• Seasonal Trends
- Events like the “Santa Claus Rally” create sentiment-driven price movements, adding unpredictability and making it harder to rely on traditional trend analysis.
IMPORTANT:
• Wider Spreads and Increased Latency
- With reduced liquidity due to fewer market participants, the difference between the buying price (bid) and the selling price (ask) tends to widen. This means traders pay more to enter or exit a position, increasing trading costs. Additionally, with fewer participants and less market activity, order execution can be slower, leading to higher latency.
Market Update
—Trump’s BRICS Tariff Threats Bolster Dollar’s Appeal
- President-elect Trump heightened geopolitical tensions by threatening BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—with 100% tariffs if they pursue an alternative currency to challenge the U.S. dollar in global trade. The move underscored the dollar’s pivotal role in international commerce, reinforcing its attractiveness to investors.
- Trump’s firm stance against de-dollarisation sent a clear signal to markets about the U.S.’s commitment to maintaining the dollar’s dominance. As a result, investor confidence in the dollar surged, further solidifying its position as the world’s reserve currency.
—Gold Struggles Amid Dollar Strength and Rising Yields
- Gold prices slipped to $2,644 per ounce as the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields weighed on the metal’s appeal. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.23%, making gold less attractive as a non-yielding asset.
Although geopolitical uncertainties remain, gold failed to gain traction as traders turned their attention to Friday’s upcoming payroll report, which could influence Federal Reserve policy. Key support for gold are: $2,607, with resistance around $2,670.
Gold Price Forecast: Eyeing $2,790 Amid Geopolitical Risks
- Gold surged 5.97% last week, closing at $2,716—its strongest performance since March 2023. The rally was driven by heightened safe-haven demand due to escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions, shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations, and mixed U.S. economic data. Concerns about nuclear escalation and global instability added $170 to gold’s price from November’s low of $2,536.85. Something very interesting, both gold and the U.S. dollar advanced, highlighting the intensity of safe-haven flows.
- On the monetary policy front, markets initially priced a 59.4% chance of a December Fed rate cut, bolstering gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. By week’s end, this expectation eased to 53% as economic signals remained mixed, with strong jobless claims contrasting with weak manufacturing data.
- Technically, gold closed above the key support level of $2,663, solidifying its position for a potential climb toward the all-time high of $2,790. Analysts see $2,750-$2,790 as the next key target if momentum holds. However, a failure to sustain this level could trigger a pullback, with support at $2,631 and $2,571.
- Looking ahead, geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve guidance will be crucial. Continued uncertainty could drive prices higher, while easing tensions or hawkish Fed commentary may cap gains.
“Every trade you make out of boredom is a wasted bullet—a piece of your limited capital, energy, or risk tolerance spent without purpose. In this industry, every bullet matters, and you can’t afford to waste them on unfocused trades. Each move should be intentional, aimed at real opportunity (A++), because every bullet you use now impacts your ability to capitalise on the next one.”
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