Risk appetite started to improve and a 2% bounce in the Hang Seng led Asian markets higher overnight. China Premier warns that economic barriers will lead to confrontation, while he promised the roll out of more effective measures to boost demand. China meanwhile set its daily reference rate for the managed currency at a higher level which for a 2nd day helped the offshore yuan advance. European and US futures are also finding buyers, after the US100 suffered again yesterday with markets preparing for a Fed hike in July. The yield curve was at -102 bps. Today – ECB conference in Sintra really gets underway, and comments from Lagarde will be watched carefully.
Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.68%) dipped to 1.6256. Fast MAs aligned rebounded in the last hour indicating the potential end of the decline.
Strong #NFP data on Friday could be the first sign of a tightening jobs market but there is a long way to go. The #USD, US Yields and the ECB are front and centre this week.
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The markets' focus on rising yields continues into March. #USD recovers a tad, #Gold continues to decline and #Stocks & #Oil retreat from highs. NFP & OPEC+ still to come.
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The major indexes surged sharply higher on the back of more good news on vaccines and the expectation of massive stimulus sooner than later. But opening the door for the gains was the more subdued tenor of the Treasury market. In the Asia session, risk aversion returned and stock market sentiment faded. Major indexes quickly pared early gains and headed south, while Treasuries were supported and the US rate dropped back -0.2%. RBA left policy settings unchanged. China's banking regulator highlighted worries about bubbles in overseas financial markets, but also domestic property markets, with suggestions that leverage will be reduced, which only added to concerns about further tightening in China.
GOLD – slumped to lowest in 9 months, as stronger Dollar and elevated US Treasury yields eroded investor appetite for the non-yielding metal. XAGUSD (-2.19% decline). USOil – below $60 .
Today: Calendar focuses on Eurozone inflation data for February, as well as German jobless numbers and retail sales.
Bond as well as stock markets rallied across Asia, with yields correcting sharply. The big swings in the markets of late, especially Thursday's wild ride, intensified an increasingly nervous tone on Wall Street which is still just off record highs. RBA doubled its regular purchase volume at its bond-buying operation, something that indicates its opposition to higher rates in the market. Australia's 10-year rate dropped back. China's official manufacturing PMI came in below expectations but Japan's reading lifted into expansion territory again. Tech-heavy USA100 futures outperforming again. US approved new single shot vaccine by Johnson & Johnson, which is hoped will speed up the vaccination process. British finance minister Rishi Sunak set to announce an extra 1.65 billion pounds ($2.30 billion) to fund the country's vaccination program. US House of Representatives passed $1.9 tln stimulus package.
Today: Eyes are on RBA (Tuesday) Chair Powell (Thursday) & NFP (Friday).
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Yields spike (10-yr +9.27), Equities tank (Nasdaq -3.52%, Nikkei -4%), USD off 3-year lows. Commodity, EM currencies & Sterling cool from highs. Oil holds up (US attack on Iranian groups in Syria), Gold falls further, BTC at $46K. US data yesterday biased to the upside (big fall Claims, Durables beat & GDP in-line.) Overnight – weak Housing, also weak but better than expected CPI & Retail data from JPY. Senate rejects $15 min wage in Stimulus bill and looks to trim the $1.9t proposals.
Today – US Personal Income, PCE & core PCE, Chicago PMI, Uni of Michigan, ECB's Schnabel, BoE's Ramsden, Haldane.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.61%) Reversal of yesterday's rally towards 85.00. Broke lower and under 20MA at R1 84.45 yesterday, now under PP and testing S1 and 200hr MA at 83.00. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 34 and falling, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, falling after break of 0 line earlier. Stochs up from OS zone and rising again. H1 ATR 0.1325, Daily ATR 0.6000.
Equities recover over 1%, (Dow over 32K) Yields cool again (10yr - 1.38%). RISK ON. JPY & CHF heavy. Commodity currencies & Sterling hold bid, EUR breaks January resistance. Copper at 10-year high, Oil at 13-mth high, Gold under $1800. BTC at 50K. Sentiment lifted as J&J announce single shot vaccine & independent study shows Pfizer vaccine 94% effective. Overnight - Nikkei up 1.67%, German Gfk confidence ticks higher, Gamestock rallied over 100% and then another 80% after hours!
Today – US Durable Goods, GDP, Weekly Claims & PCE Prices. ECB's Lane, de Guindos, de Cos, Fed's Bostic, Bullard, Quarles, Williams, and Earnings from over 400 companies in US & Europe.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.36%) Continued yesterday’s momentum rallying from 83.20 & holding over break of 20MA testing over R2 (84.50) to 84.65, R3 85.00. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 77 & rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but flattening after big break of 0 line yesterday.
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Powell pushes for inflation, USD remains heavy, yields cool from highs, NZD spikes following RBNZ. Commodity currencies & Sterling at 3-year highs, Copper at near 10-year high, Oil slipped from 1-year highs. Gold holds over $1800. BTC up from under 45k to recover 50K. German GDP beats at 0.3%. Overnight - Japanese Inflation slips, ASO talks weak Q1 GDP and need for more Bonds. Nikkei closed lower -1.6%.
Today – US new home sales, DoEs, BoE's Haldane, Bailey, Vlieghe, Haskel, Broadbent, Fed's Powell, Brainard, Clarida.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.73%) Rallied from break of 20MA yesterday at 148.00 to breach 150.00 earlier. R3 149.20, trades at 14960 now. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 80.00 & OB, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher with a big break of 0 line yesterday. Stochs down from OB zone. H1 ATR 0.2630, Daily ATR 0.9350.
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USD down again (Nasdaq -2.46%, TSLA -8.55% but DIS+4.4%) as Yields (+1.8%) & Commodities (inc. Oil +2% & Gold) gained. Commodity currencies close to 3 yr highs. Another volatile session for BTC – 57k-49K. Facebook restores some Aussie news sites, Marathon & Occidental both missed expectations, HSBC announced a 34% fall in profits. Huawei launched a $2,800 foldable phone. US passed 500,000 Covid deaths (20% of global total), England announced a slow exit from lockdowns. UK labour data better (claims down & earnings up).
Today – EZ CPI (final), US Consumer Confidence, Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual testimony to the Senate, BoC's Macklem.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (-0.34%) Rejected 0.9250 yesterday, moved under PP, 20Hr & 50Hr MA earlier to test toward 0.9200. Recovered 50MA now. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 45 and neutral, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, with a weak break of 0 line. Stochs approaching OS. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0055.
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USD recovers from lows; safe haven JPY & CHF suffer. 10yr yields touched 1.38% (now 1.345%), Equities closed down on Friday and for the week, FUTS now into 5th day lower. Reflation trade & progress in vaccination worldwide, especially in developed economies, helping commodity currencies & boosting sentiment for riskier assets. Commodities lifted (especially Copper) – except Gold ($1790) which appears to be losing its inflation hedge status to BTC (new ATHs over $57K). VIX FUTS up 4.4% to 25.80. This week – RBNZ rate decision, progress on 1.9tn stimulus package, US GDP, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, PCE & Powell testimony. Earnings season continues (392 of S&P500 reported – 80% have beaten estimates).
Today – German IFO, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bowman. Johnson to outline lockdown exit plans for England. Earnings from Marathon Oil & Occidental Petroleum.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.34%) Rallied from 200MA on Friday (0.8940), over 20 MA Friday and over R1 and R2 today – moving to test 0.9000.
Stocks and bonds remain mostly underwater. The disappointing jobless claims report and higher Treasury yields also pressured. Bloomberg highlighted that the gauge of global equities is heading for its first weekly fall since January. Reflation trades continue and Treasuries pared early losses during the course of the session, leaving the 10-year yield at 1.30%, up 0.7 bp on yesterday’s close. Officials are increasingly concerned that the sharp rise in yields and thus refinancing costs will lead to sharp corrections in risk assets. JPN225 closed with a loss of -0.7%, USA100 closed -0.7% lower, with the USA500 off -0.4%, and the USA30 down -0.38%. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.02% respectively at the moment. Today – Data releases focus on preliminary February PMI readings globally, along with Canadian Retail Sales.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.33%) Spiked to 0.7797 ahead of European open. Fast MAs aligned higher as the asset breaks R1.
Stock markets are consolidating after last week's decline. Asia bourses posted small losses, but European futures and US futures are slightly higher. Mainland China bourses sold off in catch up trade on their first trading day since last Wednesday. The 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.3 bp at 3.721% and markets continue to fine tune central bank expectations. The ECB's annual conference on central banking, which starts today may help as top central bankers are set to speak. Events in Russia are also on the radar at the start of the week. Oil prices rose on supply concerns and stock markets were mixed after Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin withdrew from positions in Russia.
Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) COFFEE (-3.07%) dipped on the 163.60, by global economic gloom sparked by Friday's weak US and Eurozone purchasing managers reports.
Big bounce back from Nasdaq (+3.69%, TSLA +19.64%, NIO +17.45%), Yields consolidate around 1.55%. Stimulus bill will pass into law later today. Nikkei closed flat. Overnight – Chinese CPI & PPI better than expected, RBA Lowe – would not say AUD is overvalued, but “comfortable” lower than last week. Gold bounced from key level ($1685), USOil drifted lower towards $63.00, BTC hit 55K.
Today – US CPI (13:30 GMT), BoC Rate Decision (15:00), Weekly Oil Inventories and – key today – Auction of $38 billion US 10-year Treasuries (18:00 GMT).
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.45%) Moved lower following LOWE comments. Under 0.7700 from 0.7820 highs yesterday, under PP (0.7865) earlier. Faster MAs aligned and lower but turning neutral, RSI 48 and neutral, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower and attempting to break 0 line. Stochs rising from OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0098.
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10-yr Yields rally. Yellen calls $1.9t stimulus package “very strong” for US economy. Nasdaq closed down -2.4% (10% below Feb high, a technical correction) but DOW gained 0.97%. PBOC lifted sentiment saying money supply would be in line with GDP growth and did not see need for stimulus for next 5 years. Nikkei +1%. Yields and USD slip overnight. Overnight - Mixed data from JPY, surprise jump for a UK retail sales tracker and the German Trade balance.
Today – BoE's Haldane, RBA's Lowe, Fed's Kaplan & US supply - $120b of 3-, 10- and 30-yr US Treasuries being auctioned this week – last week's “woeful” 7-yr auction saw yields double from the last auction in Nov.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPUSD (+0.42%) Big spike at 07:00. Moved higher following support at 1.3800 yesterday, now breached R1 at 1.3857, R2 at 1.3890. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 60 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and attempting to break 0 line. Stochs into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0020, Daily ATR 0.0115.
$1.9t stimulus package passes Senate with few changes, final ratification could be this week. Strong NFP on Friday boosted Stocks (+1.95%), Yields (1.554%) and USD (91.90) into close. Yield differentials now coming sharply into focus. Houthi missile attack on key Ras Tanura oil refinery spiked USOil prices 2.2% to within 4 cents of $68.00. Gold ($1700) remains weighed by rising yields and BTC pivots around 50k. China aiming for 6%+ growth in 2021, (2.3% 2020), with manufacturing still 25% of GDP. Trade balance +119% vs Feb 2020. JPY data better than expected (Nikkei down 0.42%), but German Ind. Production missed significantly.
Today – ECB asset purchase data, BoE's Bailey.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.39%) Moved higher on open over 20 MA and 0.9300, now breached R1 at 0.9320. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 66 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower but appear to be turning higher, well above 0 line. Stochs. into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0067.
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Wall Street turned sharply lower following Fed Chair Powell's remarks, even though it was not what he said but what he did not mention that undermined equity sentiment. Specifically, he did not push back against the recent surge in Treasury rates. Consequently, the stock market was dragged lower once again thanks to rising rates and expectations for more of the same as the economy and inflation pick-up further. The tech-heavy USA100 over -3% lower intraday, with spill over to the broader indexes. Oil prices jumped higher after the OPEC+ meeting decided to maintain current output levels. The USOIL is currently trading at USD 64.60 per barrel. Biggest mover - NZDUSD (+0.45% as of 07:30 GMT).
Today: Attention will turn to the US February employment report, hourly earnings, unemployment rate, January trade report and consumer credit is due late in the session, seen rising $10.0 bln from $9.7 bln previously. Canadian Ivey Purchasing Index in the tap as well.
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Reflation trades are back with a vengeance, putting pressure on stock markets as yields rise. Treasuries managed to stabilise somewhat overnight, after a sell off yesterday saw rates pushing higher again, but across Asia bonds as well as stocks sold off. Markets are looking ahead to scheduled comments from Fed Chairman Powell for soothing words, but in Asia mounting concern over the health of China's property market added to pressure on equity markets. Essentially it seems the turning point on policy is getting closer and that will keep bonds under pressure. JPY – at 7-month high. GOLD – hit a 9-month low of $1,701.8. AUD, which is often traded as a proxy for global growth because it is closely tied to commodities, recovered from early losses and rose to $0.7810.
Today: The calendar has Eurozone retail sales and unemployment data for January. Initial and continuous Jobless claims will be on tap however Fed's Chairman Powell and the OPEC meeting will be in the spotlight.
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Optimism on the outlook remains very supportive, especially with more vaccines on the way and another big stimulus injection on the horizon. Recent data support that point of view with many revising up Q1 and 2021 growth projections. Treasuries have stabilized too which has helped calm jitters regarding the bearish impacts on stocks from rising rates, and worries inflation pressures will pick up and cause the FOMC to pullback accommodation sooner than expected. Today's calendar includes final readings for Eurozone and UK services PMIs for Feb. UK Chancellor Sunak will present his budget proposal today, with reports already out indicating that furlough measures will be extended until September. Also on tap are the US ISM Services for Feb along with ADP employment data.
GOLD declines further below 50-day EMA and 8-month Support.
USOil – edged up to $60.10 per barrel, amid growing conviction that the OPEC+ alliance is poised to agree an increase in output this week.
Biggest mover - GBPJPY (+0.37% as of 07:30)
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It's all about Yields! Stock market rotation continues as cyclicals outperform, signaling that the baseline scenario of a global recovery remains intact, even if rising yields act as a reminder that the upside for stocks has limits. #USD remains lower, #Copper hits fresh 10-year highs and #USOIL is above $62 with a near 30% gain so far this year!
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